Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Banks at record highs; Holiday stocks for your stocking 12/24/25

Episode Date: December 24, 2025

It’s a holiday-shortened trading day but the Dow and S&P 500 still closed at record highs. Patrick Fruzzetti of Rose Advisors weighs in on the broader market setup and positioning, before Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets looks ahead to what 2026 could mean for banks. Tim Seymour of Fast Money delivers his “stocking stuffers” list of winners and losers. Our Steve Liesman explores how Americans are spending and behaving around Christmas, and John San Marco of Neuberger Berman analyzes holiday shopping trends and consumer strength. Plus, Emily Wilkins reporting from Washington on the political and crypto crossover scene in D.C. at Pubkey, a new dive bar.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That's right, Tully. It is the season of giving, and that's what you're getting from the S&P. It's the end of regulation. The NYSE facilities team ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Move for hunger doing the honors at the NASDAQ. Markets today moving higher into the close, the Dow gaining nearly 300 points and will likely settle at an all-time closing high. The S&P 500 up about a quarter of a percent. Also, yet another record close. The NASDAQ with a small gain, no record there. However, the Russell 2,000, up a bit as well. Consumer staples, one of the top groups today, though one of the worst so far this year. Costco leading the sector, North Coast Research, upgrading the stock to buy from neutral,

and setting a price target at $1,100. Let's take a look at the metals, gold, silver, and copper all higher today, extending gains for the year. And that's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to the closing bell. Over time, I'm Leslie Picker. John Fort and Morgan Brennan are off today. and the big banks continuing to make new all-time highs. City Group today rising to a 17-year high. J.P. Morgan Bank of America and Wells Fargo today said all-time highs as well. We'll dig into why these banks are outperforming and ask a top analyst if it can continue in 2026. Plus, it wouldn't be Christmas Eve without looking at retail stocks.

Some of those names, especially the ones based in malls, have had huge runs during this crucial period. Abercrombie and Fitch has nearly doubled since. Thanksgiving, much more on retail and the holiday shopper coming up. But let's begin with more on the markets and the stocks leading the Dow higher today. That is Nike. Steve Kovac is here with those details. Hey, Steve. And there's an Apple angle to that Nike story. We'll get that tone a second here, Leslie. Look, that's so-called Santa Claus rally, it's off to a good start on the shortened trading day. And the S&P hit its high and closing of 6934. That's the NASDAQ finished about a quarter of a percent higher. The Dow led the major averages with the

about a 6% gain led by a surge in Nike, which had its best day since October after Apple CEO. Tim Cook disclosed a nearly $3 million share purchase. He's also a member of the Board of Directors at Nike since 2005 and the lead independent director since 2016. Meantime, look at Intel. Let's stick with tech here. Shares down after a Reuters report that Nvidia halted a test of Intel's 18-A ship manufacturing process, But that report did boost shares of Micron and Sandysk, both finishing about 3.5% higher. And let's round all this out with a quick merger check, Sanify shares.

They move slightly lower after it announced it's going to require Dynavaks, which will give the French pharmaceutical company access to a Hep B vaccine. Dynavax had its best day since 2021 on that news. And then Snowflake shares, they finished about a 1.5% lower after Investors' Business Daily report. that it is in talks to acquire AI Startup Observe. Leslie, back over here. Thank you. And let's get more on that Intel story.

Dear Jrabosa joins us now from San Francisco. Dee, this was such an interesting deep dive into Liputan's tenure and relationship with the government. Right. So many great details like calling up Satyana Della, Jensen Huang, before his meeting with Trump, just to get their sort of view on how to play that kind of meeting. But it does come down to Liputan.

And he has proved himself a great deal. dealmaker, but until he can sign on a major customer to Intel's foundry business, this turnaround is very much incomplete. So, Reuters reporting that Nvidia recently tested whether it would use Intel's advanced 18A manufacturing process, then according to Reuter sources stop moving forward. Now, that would highlight the gap between interest and commitment. But, Leslie, let's take a step back for a moment. The idea that Nvidia and other players, like XAI, as Musk has publicly said, the idea that they're considering seriously Intel's foundry business would have been almost unthinkable just a few years ago. Today, the most important chipmakers in the world critical

to the AI race, they're largely made outside of the U.S. concentrated in a handful of Asian fads led by TSM and Samsung. If Intel can actually reclaim a role as a leading edge foundry, this is a strategic win for the company, also for Washington and Trump's administration, which is now taking a 10% stake in the company. So domestic capacity, it means supply chain resilience and national security. That is why this is so important. It's also why it's a political story. And so that behind the scenes reporting in the Reuters piece, it is fascinating. Liputant, he's not just trying to execute one of the hardest turnarounds in tech. He is also navigating in a very difficult Washington. As others have also pointed out, Leslie, the idea that

Nvidia would maybe back away from being an 18A node customer might be irrelevant. I mean, I like the chatter in markets over the last few months has really been around 14A, which is an even more advanced process with some speculating that even Apple could be a customer here. So, you know, take this piece with a grain of salt. The behind the scenes is super interesting how it's all gone down. But in terms of that foundry business, Lipu, he has to execute there, but we certainly have not heard the last. No, that context is really helpful.

Just being invited to the party, maybe enough here in terms of just. the progress that they're making. Deirdre Bosa, thank you for breaking it down for us. And now to the bond market, as this morning's jobless claims data was not quite as bad as expected. Rick Santelli is in Chicago for us. Hey, Rick. Hi, definitely.

If I look at 214,000 on initial jobless claims and you're looking at a four and a half year chart there, boy, to me, that's historically low. As a matter of fact, it really bears the notion of a no higher, no fire type economy because normally anything under 250,000 is good, or a 214,000. Now, let's look at global rates on the 10-year side. This is fun, okay? The 10-year in the U.S. closed at 457 last year. It's currently at 413, which means it's down 44 basis points, a little less than half of 1%. Now, let's look towards Europe, the EU, and their benchmark sovereign, the 10-year German boon. It closed last year at 2,000, It's now at 286. It's up 50 base points. It's up half a 1%. Basically a 1% difference than us. And if we look to Japan, Japan closed last year at 108. They're currently at 204. They're up 96 basis points. Now that really sums up what's going on in the globe. Many countries and economies that used to have negative rates, well, their rates are starting to get to a nosebleed level.

on a relative basis and we really need to monitor what's going on in Japan. And finally, when you look at the dollar index chart, yes, it's off almost 10% year to date. But do keep in mind, EU rates were up, Japan rates were up, most of Europe's rates, France, all up. Our rates were down that helps in some part to explain what's going on with the weakness in the dollar index. Leslie, back to you. Yeah, Rick, I'm glad you brought that up, this idea. of relative value across the globe and how that's going to be instrumental for flows going into 2026. I agree with you. That's going to be a key story, particularly in Japan. Thank you and

happy holidays to you. Merry Christmas, happy holidays. Thank you. It was a record close for the S&P today, making its 39th of the year. And the major averages are also on track for their third straight year of gains. Could this momentum spill over into the new year? Are there risks that are not priced in yet. Joining me now is Patrick Frusetti from Rose Advisors at High Tower, Patrick Frusetti. Thank you for being here. So you think inflation is here to stay for the next couple of years, and it's not exactly priced in. Why is that? And how do you think the market will ultimately react? Yeah, sure. Thanks for having me, Leslie. So 2025 was a good year for risk assets. The question is how long can it last? You know, equity valuations are pretty expensive. Credits

spreads are tight. And as Rick mentioned, you know, there's still some uncertainty over the labor market, you know, no higher, no fire. And I say inflation's not priced in. I think it's going to be very hard to get to the 2% target. And it really comes down to structural globalization and protectionism. That upward pressure on inflation will outweigh any downward disinflation disinflationary pressure that perhaps things like AI may provide in the near future. think the key read-through for the markets there is maybe you won't get as many rate cuts as you're currently counting on and therefore, you know, it will kind of reassess the cost of capital there? Or do you think it's the inflation picture is so risky that you could even see a rate

hike in 2026? I don't think we'll get a rate hike, but I would just say with the underlying environment, it makes it challenging to cut rates. And if they do, it means we may have a steeper yield curve because I don't see the long end of the curve going down. And I actually think the long end of the curve could ultimately go up. And, you know, if we do have those unexpected inflationary numbers come forth, you know, at some point in 2026. All right. And another key theme that obviously everyone's talking about this year, expected to continue talking about next year, is the AI theme. What do you think the market needs to see in 2026? If this year was the story about efficiencies and seeing some sort of ROI on all of the investment. What do you think the

market needs to see in 2026 in order to further generate upside in some of these trades? Yeah, so the market rewarded all of this AI, CAPEX spend in 2025, right? And we all know what CEOs love to spend. So they had no problem. If they thought it was going to increase their share price, of course, they could put that money to work. And I think as we move forward 26 and 27, And I think the market's going to look to see what the return on that investment is going to be eventually. And I think that that's what the market's going to look for. And it's become more competitive, right? So as with the increased cap-exp spend, we know we're going to see competitive, you know,

dollar, we're going to see additional dollars spent worldwide. Look at a place like China. They're clearly going to spend on AI. And in the old adages, you know, when China walks into the room, profits walk out. So I think it's going to be, it's going to put. pressure on the return paradigm as it relates to AI CAPEX spend. Yeah, Steve Kovak did a great story yesterday about the commoditization of some of these models and that theme for 2026. Outside of AI, though, you like health care for 2026. That's been a pretty beaten down sector until

recently. Why do you think it's poised to prosper next year? So two reasons. We're in a midterm election year, and if we look at the 11 of the last 12 or 13 midterm election cycles, we've seen health care outperform. So that's one reason. I'd also say, you know, we talk about AI, KAPX spend, you know, with health care and particularly pharmaceuticals, I think they're ultimately going to benefit. Think about the sector, you know, a lot of these companies have relatively speaking low multiples. And, you know, they're going to benefit from, you know, the development and optimization of drug discovery as they use, you know, things like AI. So I think that that's going to improve that sector. But most importantly, it's just a relative ballgame.

And I think going into next year, they're undervalued. I think as we go through the year, maybe we have some increased volatility being a midterm election year. They'll, they would be a good allocation in any portfolio. Yeah, some potential dealmaking in that sector may not hurt as well. We've seen a little bit over the past few weeks. We'll see if that continues into the new year. Patrick Frusetti, thank you for your time. Thank you. Merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas. Financials finishing the year strong, the best performing sector over the past month. with many names in the group soaring to all-time highs, what's driving these gains and can it continue in 2026? Overtimes back in two minutes. Welcome back. The banks are poised to deliver the third best gains among the SMP's 24 industry groups this year

after media and semiconductors. Now within the banks, the bigger firms delivering some incredible performance city up a whopping 73% year-to-date. Goldman Sachs up a baby. about 59% in Morgan Stanley, up about 44%. And with just four days left, four trading days left in the year, several are hitting 52-week highs today, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, City, and Capital One, there are several drivers of bank stock performance this year.

Some, like City and Wells Fargo, have been undergoing these idiosyncratic transformations of their businesses, which is paying off in their efficiency metrics. The capital markets revival, of course, thanks to a surge in M&A and IPOs, is bolstering Goldman. Sacks and Morgan Stanley, and the prospect for lower rates and a steeper yield curve is expected to drive loanmaking profitability at many of the money center spots as well. And then there's just this icing on the cake for the industry, which is deregulation, which is expected to benefit buybacks and dividends as well as potentially more loanmaking. And there's also a question as to whether these tailwinds are already priced in or if there's more in store for 2026, if there is

deterioration too in the macro environment, do the banks fall with it? So let's talk more about the banks trade. Joining me now is Gerard Cassidy. He is RBC Capital Markets co-head of global financials. Gerard, good to see you today. It really feels like, and you hear this on pretty much every earnings call over the past few quarters, that things are really firing on all cylinders for the big banks, especially. What do you think is the biggest risk for the bull case in banks right now. Thank you, Leslie, for having me on the program. And I would say the biggest risk for the banks would be a reemergence of inflation in the second half of 2026. If we see inflation running at 4 or 5 percent, and it forces the Federal Reserve to reverse its monetary policy from

monetary easing and lowering short-term rates to monetary tightening and raising short-term rates, That to us is the biggest risk to the bank stocks as we look out into 2026. And presumably that's because of the risk of a flatter, flatter yield curve as well as a potential headwind for credit quality. Is that right? How are you thinking about credit quality, particularly as we think about the interconnectivity between some of those NDFIs, the non-banking sector, as that continues to become even more interconnected? Leslie, you're right. If they were to raise short-term interest rates, that would certainly flatten the yield curve and would take away the benefit of growing net interest income. And the bank stocks, like many stocks, they discount the future. So what investors would also take into account is rising short-term interest rates could lead to a recession, which then turns into a credit cycle. And to your point, credit today is very resilient. The de-risking of the the American banking industry has been very effective post the financial crisis. And so as a result, the banks are in good shape.

Now, as you said on the interconnectedness with the loans, the non-depository financial institutions, NDFIs, as you referenced, right now, that's very healthy. And the banks have done a very good job with that business over the years. But to your point, it has grown very rapidly the growth in that category. then that has our eyes wide open to maybe potential problems down the road. Yeah, we saw little bits and, you know, cockroaches, as I guess, Jamie Diamond called them back a couple months ago with regard to bankruptcies and, you know, spotlining NDFIs.

I'm curious, when you look at the year-to-day gains in some of these bigger banks in particular, they're pretty mind-boggling when you think about it. Is there room to run? How much of all of these tailwinds are? already priced into the sector right now? I think there's some but to your point, Leslie, about cockroaches or mice, what if you want to call it. Right now, we don't see that at all and maybe down the road.

But coming back to what's priced in, as you just pointed out, the stocks have done very well because of the expectation of what you highlighted earlier in this segment. And what's really going to be interesting is one final piece of bank deregulation, and it's the most important piece known as Basel Free Endgame. We think we'll see that proposal come in the first quarter of 2026, and this will give a further pieces of evidence to investors that the regulators are very constructive and are working with the banking industry. But the other part of the story, Leslie, and I think this is what's going to carry 26, at least initially, is the growth of the economy. You saw the real GDP numbers this week. Now, if you take the nominal GDP, so that's not the real GDP number. This, you know, factors in inflation, of course, real GDP.

When you look at the nominal number, the growth was about 8% in a quarter. And the reason that's important is that loan growth, when you go back over 75 years and do a real. regression analysis, loan growth in the banking industry is linked to nominal GDP growth. So if we continue to see three to four percent real GDP growth and possibly 78 percent nominal growth, loan growth could accelerate, which is not really discounted in the prices today. Yeah, no, that's a really good point. And I can see why you're concerned about inflation, despite all the firing on all cylinders. It's kind of a blessing and a curse with the GDP numbers we've seen.

Gerard Cassidy, thank you so much. Appreciate it. You're very welcome. Thank you, listening. Happy holidays. Shares of Intel's lighting today after reports say NVIDIA tested Intel's production process, but gave up on the idea. But Intel's shares are up nearly twice as much as NVIDIA's this year.

So what is this latest news mean for Intel's turnaround efforts? That's next on Overtime. Welcome back to Overtime. shares of U.S. vaccine maker Dynavax technology soaring nearly 40 percent on news that French pharma companies Sanofi is buying it for $2.2 billion. Sanofi will pay $15.50 in cash per share of Dynavaks, a 39% premium over in yesterday's closing price. The deal gives Sanofi access to an approved hepatitis B vaccine. It expects the deal to close in the first quarter of 2026. Intel shares edging lower today down about half a percent. One of the worst performers, though,

on the S&P 500, but pairing some of its losses in the later part of the trading day, Reuters out with a report detailing CEO Lip Bhutan's busy last few months as he worked to win over President Trump and the administration. But investors keying in on a few nuggets near the bottom of the piece, including a commerce officials saying Intel is not, quote, too strategic to fail, and that Nvidia recently tested using manufacturing its own chips with Intel's 18A process, but stopped. Joining us now for more as Daniel Newman, CEO at Futurum Group. Daniel, which part of the piece stood out to you as the most important for the market for Intel investors?

Well, I think the part that came out about NVIDIA was the most interesting part. Now, the comment about being not strategic enough that they would not let it fail, I tend to disagree with that, Leslie. I believe that the $10 billion investment from the U.S. government, that the $5 billion that came in from NVIDIA, that the multi-billions that came in from Arm and SoftBank are because we are in this all-hands-on-deck moment for AI and Intel being able to expand capacity, maybe not replace TSMC, but to be able to offer capacity in addition to TSM is going to be critical because we simply cannot produce enough chips. But one of the things that also was very interesting was this idea that they tested 18A and it didn't work, this is a little bit of a story that had already come out.

And Lipputant, who I've talked to many times about this, has more less told the market this for months that 18A was going to be the internal node that they were going to ramp up some of their own Intel products on 18A, but really 14A. This is the next node coming 27 for risk, 28 for production. This is the one where it's going to be the rubber meeting the road for companies like Nvidia, Apple, or others that are considering building more with Intel. So that's what Deirdre mentioned earlier was this idea that just the fact that Intel was even you know, invited to the party here for 18A is noteworthy and actually a positive development. I'm curious, what you make of that given the interconnectivity with the government now?

Was it invited, you know, just because of its relationship? Do you see any kind of favoritism or benefit that they're already starting to garner given this relationship? Yeah, so one of the things that's really important for investors to know is that every one of these new nodes, This could be Intel. This could be Samsung. This could be TSM. Most of the fabulous broadcoms and invidias, AMDs, they're all going to test these. There's different reasons for why they're doing that, but one, as I mentioned, just this overall capacity strain on the market. They're all going to be looking at these different options. Of course, if these different nodes scale and offer better performance, maybe better efficiency, this could be a reason to turn in the direction of a different

provider. We know TSM has been incredibly successful, that their moat is really deep, and that the different fabulous companies, the ones I've mentioned, have all stuck with TSM, not just because they're available and they can deliver. They'll pay more for TSM because of the fact that it's so predictable, it's so consistent. But we've never had a constraint like this before. We've never been in a situation where we simply can't build enough. So we're hearing about Google turning potentially to Samsung. We're seeing Broadcom and Video, you know, we bet that AMD, Qualcomm, others all looking at Intel because as this AI trend continues, we're going to need every chip that can be produced. So we really should want Intel to succeed. And I believe that U.S.

government investment, to your point earlier, was all about making sure that the U.S. does exceed. The policy is really in place for a U.S.-led U.S. manufacturer of leading-edge chips. Yeah. Obviously, there's some historical stickiness in terms of a manufacturing partner, but when you can't produce enough, fast enough, that's going to change the game. I see here that you have some 2026 predictions, broadly speaking, for the space. What do you think it is most likely for the new year? Yeah, we have a few of them, but one that we definitely think is we feel that Amazon and Meta trailed significantly, some of its other names, and we think that some of the reasons they trailed, the bet that Meta has made on all these

talent. We think that talent's going to come through next year. A lot of people thought after Mark went on that spending spree bar, all those people in from different research labs for AI, that that was going to create more of an immediate result. You know, the ticker, it trailed all year. We think next year it's going to do a lot better. And we also think Amazon did a good job this year catching up. We felt that they were a little slow ramping their Nvidia. But we think that now that they've made those investments, they launched Project Rainier, they've also built their own silicon and they're starting to ramp that up. We think they're going to be able to take advantage of their deep position as the largest hyperscale cloud. And I'll give you one other fun one, Leslie, is I think

there'll be two trillion dollar IPOs next year. It's going to be Ilan and Sam. And I think that Elon is going to win out for the biggest IPO in history. And I think that's going to be another frustrating point for Sam Alton. But it just seems that's the story with those two. SpaceX and Open AI. I look forward to covering those, although I agree with you. It could be a bit in arms race there in terms of offering size proceeds and then how much the market will absorb. We'll see, but it'll be a fun a fun 2026 nonetheless

at least from a reporting standpoint. Daniel Newman appreciated. Happy holidays to you. You too. Time now for a CNBC News Update with McKenzie Seagalos. Mack. Hey, Leslie. European Union officials today condemned a move by the Trump administration to sanction five officials involved with online

safety campaigns calling the action authoritarian. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused the five of an organized effort to coerce, American tech platforms to censor, demonetize, and suppress American viewpoints that they don't like. The move from Washington comes amid an EU effort to regulate U.S. tech giants. A federal judge rejecting a challenge by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to President Trump's plan to charge $100,000 for new H-1B visas. The Chamber had argued it conflicts with federal immigration law, but the Obama appointed judge said the president's move fell under

his broad powers to regulate immigration. Pro golfer, Brooks Kepka, announcing that he'll leave the Saudi Arabia-funded live golf tour. In a statement, the five-time major champion wrote that it's the right moment to spend more time with his family. It's unclear if or when he might try to rejoin the PGA tour. He'll have to wait a year from his last live event before he's eligible. Leslie, back to you. Wow, a year with this family.

Sounds good. Mack, thank you. Coming up, you've got fewer than 12 shopping hours. until Christmas, but the good news is Team Seymour has some last-minute stocking stuffer ideas for all the investors on your list. That's next on overtime. Stocks packing in a lot

of action into a shortened three and a half hour trading session. The Dow gaining nearly 300 points and closing at a record high, also closing at a record high for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ did not hit a record today, but it did close higher for the fifth straight day, as did the Dow and the S&P

P. And you're running out of time to finish your Christmas shopping, but maybe you've got some people on your list who might benefit from a stock or two in their portfolio. Here to help us pick out the right investment for everyone on your list. Let's bring in Tim Seymour, Seymour asset management and a fast money trader. Joining us on a day where there is no fast money, so we appreciate you. First of- It's great to be here. Thank you. First up, Tim, someone in your life who has been good this year. They deserve something special. Maybe a shiny new toy? A shiny new toy, Leslie, could also be that toy you forgot all about. I'm talking about, well, no, I'm not talking about your cabbage patch dolls or your Teddy Ruskin dolls or your Pac-Man,

but it's international investing. And I think a lot of investors forgot about this. It seemed like a new toy in 25. It's kind of that new toy in 26 for a lot of people that continue to be very underweight. I think the trends for international investing were not one-off. I think some of the macro, whether it's weaker dollar, more fed dynamics. I think we even got this week in terms of where GDP, and I think the global economy really is in a pretty decent spot, EPS growth, especially in Europe. But it's about investing alongside some of the exciting trends that I think have been here in the U.S. over the last year or so, too. I mean, it's semis, it's Taiwan semiconductors, it's gold, it's AEM, it's a number of the different industrial plays, European banks.

I manage an international ETO. I think all of these themes are alive and well, and I think international is that toy that people have forgotten about. And again, international investing used to be maybe 20, 30, 40 percent of an allocation. I think that's a toy that needs to be in a lot of stockings or under those Christmas trees. Huh. Okay. Well, what about the person on your list who is a little tough to shop for? They already have everything, but maybe they could benefit from something simple, something useful, even a little bit boring, something like a pair of socks. Yeah, it sounds like socks. And I have to, I think I'll begin socks this year, and I think I'm going to be okay with it.

And socks in the form of Altria, Altria feels like a pair of socks. It's not exciting. The tobacco space is seen as a staple. Altria, to me, though, is growing their dividend, five to six percent annually. They are growing their EPS two to three percent. This is a story where I think cigarette volumes while declining, pricing power is really increased for them. I think you've got a lot of tailwinds for owning something that seems kind of boring. It almost traded like a gross stock in the first half of 25. I think you want to be there in 26. And socks are okay.

In fact, bring them on. Sox keep your feet warm. They're practical. Yeah, absolutely. And our last gift is for someone who's on the wrong list, someone who deserves a lump of coal. What stock would you not want to receive this year? Yeah, coal is no fun, and I guess it's tough to receive coal, especially when it used to be thought of as something that was pretty exciting. I think Chipotle, CMG, obviously one of the great growth stock stories over the last five to ten years and the last year has really run into issues.

I think there are issues that continue. I think there's a margin problem. I think there is a lack of store openings to keep up with where people had priced in growth. I think there's a consumer, we're starting to see divergence between kind of the middle and the lower end, which brings down frequency. I think CMG is still kind of caught in that, where's the multiple on the stock? I, you know, a little, you know, a dollar quarter in earnings, it's still a 35 multiple non-stock that even after a big bounce that I think you want to own here. Yeah. All right, Tim Seymour.

Thank you so much for breaking that down for us. Thanks, Leslie. Merry Christmas. Have a great holiday. You too. Thank you. Take care. Up next, the results of the latest CNBC.

All-America Economic Survey on how Americans will spend their Christmas, and you may be surprised on what's on the agenda for tomorrow besides opening gifts. Plus, why this mystery AI company is getting a nice pop today as it keeps delivering gains for investors this year. Overtime, we'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. Shares of Automation Software Company UiPath jumping nearly 8% today. After news, it will be added to the S&P Mid-Cap 400 index. on January 2nd. UiPath specializes in robotic process automation for businesses. The move boosts visibility and often demand for stocks

as funds tracking the index will have to buy that stock. It's one of the great debates around the Christmas table. No, it's not politics. Well, maybe in addition to politics, but what's the favorite holiday movie and do you or don't you turn on the TV to watch football? Senior economics reporter Steve Leesman joins us with this very important question and some answers from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.

Yeah, we have the answers. Whether you have a wonderful life and spend Christmas with family or your home alone, everyone has a favorite Christmas movie unless you're a Grinch. We ask a thousand Americans. Tell us your favorite Christmas movie. And the winner is Home Alone, as you might have expected. Followed by Elf, which is the most recent of the movies coming in at second place. Third is the Grinch you stole Christmas. It's a wonderful life. My favorite in fourth and then die hard around which there is a debate as to whether or not it is a christmas movie or not honorable mentions a christmas story and a christmas vacation coming in at the lower but but still pretty high there worth pointing out no movie that got any substantial

votes was made more recently the 2003 so we can empirically say the public thinks they don't make them like they used to we also ask more generally how do you entertain yourself on christmas or around the holidays watch your stream a movie 66% watch live sports on tv 37 percent, see a movie in a theater, 29 percent, and get down a little lower there, attending or going out to see a musical or a concert, maybe the Nutcracker, maybe go see Steve Leesman's band, 23 percent, honorable mentions attending a sporting event and traveling out of the country. Also picked up here a bit of the K-shaped economy with how people spend their Christmas and how they spend their money. If you can see that we have a group we call the financial elite, that's the people

with more higher salaries and more money in the market. They're more likely to go out to the movie theater. It's expensive, right, to get out there. there versus low income, 25%. And then you look at Americans attending a player musical, even more expensive, 37% for the financially, only 18% for low incomes. And then, of course, attending a sporting event, that's a lot of money. 23% for the financially, 9% for the lower income Americans. The NFL seems to figure out people like watching sports on TV on Christmas.

This is the third year in a row that there are three NFL games, and of course, in a sign of the times. Netflix will stream the first year, and Amazon has the evening game. was not true in my childhood. There was streaming going on. Yeah, that was my first thought when I saw the results of the survey was that this was just emblematic of the K-shaped economy. And also, kind of the equal

weightings for things that you do in your home, like watch sports, stream a movie, and then go see a movie, go see a concert. There's no reason to actually leave the house at all these days, is there. No. You can do your work from the home. You can watch the movies, watch the sporting events. There's no actual reason. This is the big

story with this paramount thing. You know, not to make it a bigger story than it is, but Is there this future in going out to the movies? I enjoy going once in a while, but staying at home and watching a movie is also just fine with me. And I do wonder, though, being a little bit more old-fashioned about this, the sports and the holiday. I mean, because, you know, well, it doesn't take away from family interaction. Or do we interact through the TV, watch the football, stuff like that? I wonder if people have three NFL games on Christmas.

That's a lot. Now, I did talk to our sports reporter, Alex, and he said, this. business about football on Christmas goes back as early as 71. It's been on and off and on and off. But he also tells me that these NFL games on Christmas rate higher than the regular NFL games.

People are watching. We tried to watch the chief son Thanksgiving, but we had a bunch of young toddlers that were screaming like, no, we want to watch Paw Patrol or whatever else would benefit Paramount. Right. So in a few years, you can tell them to go away. Yeah. But now you have to cater to them. Take your poison,

I guess. You really want to watch that NFL Game or is streaming Paw Patrol sufficient. Thank you. Appreciate it. And thanks for bringing us those great puns as well. Up next, a top retail analyst, gift wraps a pair of retail socks. He thinks you should add to your post-holiday shopping list. And later, why one new restaurant hopes cozing up to lawmakers in D.C.

with burgers and beer could help influence cryptocurrency legislation. Overtime, we'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. I'm Costco, one of the big winners in the S&P 500 today, North Coast Research upgrading the Warehouse Club to buy from neutral with a price target of $1,100, implying a nearly 30% gain from Tuesday's close. The analysts there citing Costco's steady earnings per share growth and hopes it could offer another special dividend, which last happened in 2023, but those shares up about 2%. And speaking of retail, the XRT retail ETF is up 9% in a month, just around when the shopping season kicks in. Abercrombie and Fitch is the winner in the XRT. It's up a whopping 93% in a month.

Victoria's Secret coming in second place, up 48% since last month. And it hit a new high last week. Joining us now to discuss holiday shopping winners and losers is John San Marco from Newberger, Berman. John, thank you for being here. You just look at some of these winners. Some of the older mall names that were just as easily left for dead a few years ago. What do you think is behind the rebound in some of these names? names. Yeah, great to see you. Thanks for having me on. I think that you set that you set up the

explanation. Well, many, many of the stocks you reference in the XRT is pretty heavy in names that were left for dead. You know, there's a lot of more marginal competitors there that were in the crosshairs of a lot of headwinds for retail. So as the consumer has proven to be more buoyant and resilient than I think we would have expected even three months ago, you know, There's just a lot more torque in some of those, you know, higher, higher beta retailers in the mall names you referenced. What about the flip side? Who do you think is being really left behind in this current environment? I think there's still some value, you know, in higher quality, steadier, more consistent players.

You mentioned, one of them, Costco, but, you know, given the date today, you know, maybe just with a little more holiday flare, you know, two-eyed flag or, you know, Dollar Tree is a, is a, name that's, you know, 2025, they withstood this, these hurricane force winds from tariffs. They're coming out of a messy transition, you know, from having owned family dollar, from some management instability that, you know, frankly, they fumbled execution. I think for in the second inning there around expanding to multiple price points. I think they've, executions moving in the right direction. They've resolved those issues. The balance sheet's in great, great shape. And, you know, 2026 ought to be a year where, where they can really sort of of capture some of these earning discrete cost headwinds they faced. Another retailer,

superb quality retailer is TJX. I mean, this is, you know, I think an all-weather retailer that just compounds growth, but some weather is better than others. And they're just, they're in a great position to capture the high-income consumer that's still spending. I heard you reference the K-shaped consumer in the prior segment. T.JX is in a great place to serve that customer who's doing okay, but looking for value. And they're in a great place to capitalize on other retailers' misfortune. So it should be a good holiday for them as well. This holiday season, are you given that tendency to trade down in the K-shaped economy?

Are you seeing more promotions or given some of the supply chain challenges from earlier in the year, are the margins able to support some of the promotions that maybe consumers are used to in years past? I don't know that we're necessarily seeing more promotions. In fact, a lot of retailers are using the magnitude of promotion as a pricing lever to offset tariffs. But I think the consumer is, you know, seeking those promotions. And so in many respects, you know, the consumer is kind of going to determine the promotional cadence. And they're just shopping closer to need, closer to the last minute, you know, very intentional around promotional and events. And, you know, I think this sort of coupon clipping, cautious.

holiday, you know, is good for the two retailers. I mentioned, Dollar Tree and TjX. I do think there's some green shoots and clause for optimism about 2026 and, you know, perhaps some reversion. But for now, the customers clearly, you know, heat-seeking those big discounts. What are the green shoots for 2026? Well, the biggest is the implications of the tax reform, you know, both during refund season and the withholding impact.

to the customer is going to have a lot more capacity to spend, just as they're beginning to show interest for the first time in several years, broadly speaking, in discretionary goods. Something they shopped like crazy early in COVID, and then the customer, the consumer stepped away from for years. So the consumer's coming back to that. They're going to have these tax benefits. The headwind from tariffs are about as bad as they're going to get like today in the alternative data that's pretty ubiquitous now. It's about as bad of an impact as you'll see on the customer. It'll start to abate as we move through 2026. And I think there's, you know, there's a couple laggards, I think, could be great comeback stocks. You know, Home Depot is one.

They're really well positioned for the tax reform. They serve a middle income and high income homeowning customer who's really stepped away from this category for years. So a lot of pent-up demand. And Costco's another one. You know, it's quite strange. to discuss Costco as a laggard. It's just executed fundamentally so strongly, so consistently for so long. But the stock was, you know, came into last year quite expensive. And you've seen that derating. And so now there's reasonable value for just a spectacular quality retail asset. Yeah. It's been about as crowded as I'm sure the stores are today leading up to Christmas. John San Marco, thank you very much. Happy holidays to you, sir. Thank you, too.

Up next, we'll discuss how one new bar just blocks from Capitol Hill is hoping beers and burgers can help influence crypto legislation. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the closing bell Overtime podcast on your favorite podcast app. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. The next time you're in our nation's capital, you can grab a beer in an educational session about Bitcoin at a new bar just blocks from Kavanaugh. Capitol Hill. Emily Wilkins has the detail. Sounds like fun. That is the hope. You know, Crypto made a splash in D.C. Leslie, with million in campaigns donations and a huge lobbying effort. Now they're trying something new with a bar. It's called Pubkey. And look, it might look like a

normal bar on first glance with patrons eating wings and fries, but it is designed to also be a gathering space for Bitcoin plebs and the Crypto Curious. PubKee has a podcast studio, plans to hold weekly events helping explain the Bitcoin ecosystem. Assisting with that effort is Crypto Think Tank, the Bitcoin Policy Institute, which has their offices inside the space. Connor Brown, the group's head of strategy, said he hopes that the place will allow for dialogue with policymakers, experts, and academics. This is a longstanding problem with Bitcoin is that sometimes people see it as being

too intangible. It is a virtual asset, and so it's difficult for people to, you know, get their arms around it sometimes. But with Pubkey, we now have a physical location where people can come to and really see Bitcoin in person. Anyone is welcome at the bar. You can pay with cash or card, but if you pay with Bitcoin, you do get 21% off. Something to consider if you get down here to D.C. Leslie. Are there plans to expand this or is it kind of strategically placed in the nation's capital in order to generate buzz with that specific cohort? So the original one was actually in New York was established by someone who, you know, during the pandemic, he wanted to see dive bars

come back. He wanted a space for crypto folks. But the move to D.C. is partly strategic because of everything happening in D.C. right now with crypto. And because quality control-wise, it's much easier to get from New York to D.C. than, say, New York to San Francisco. Yeah, absolutely. I have to imagine the correlation between Bitcoin enthusiasts and Burger enthusiasts is pretty strong. Emily Wilkins, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. And thank you so much for watching on this short and trading day. Santa Claus rally a positive seasonality all in play here. That does it for overtime. American greed starts right now.