Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: CEA Chair On Tariffs Deadline, Jobs Data; Tim Cook Visits White House, Announces New Investment Plan 8/6/25

Episode Date: August 6, 2025

White House Council of Economic Advisors Chairman Stephen Miran weighs in ahead of the midnight deadline for tariffs ramping up. In Seattle, Jon sits down with Amazon’s VP of AI & Compute, David Brown, to discuss the company’s ambitions in artificial intelligence. Plus, Apple’s $100 billion investment analyzed with Patrick Moorhead and Steve Kovach.

Well, that's the end of regulation. Planet Fitness, ringing the closing belt in the New York Stock Exchange. LeBang International doing the honors of the NASDAQ. Stocks modestly higher today as Apple lifted the Dow and the NASDAQ, the market moving higher, or the market move higher, I should say, coming despite the president raising tariffs on India to 50%. The Russell 2000 was the underperformer today, the loan index that closed in the red. Consumer discretionary, staples, tech, those are your S&P sector leaders. health care and energy were the laggards. McDonald's, Amazon, Tesla, those were led within discretionary. McDonald's jumping on the back of strong earnings, oil falling for the fifth straight session and hitting a five-week low, crude extending its losses in late trading, as the White House says Russia has expressed interest in meeting with President Trump, and a bullish day for both Bitcoin and Ether, with Ether climbing nearly 3%.

That is the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan. And I'm John Ford in Seattle at AWS Amazon Web Services Headquarters, talking to executives about their AI and cloud plans coming up. I'm going to be joined by David Brown. He is the vice president of compute and machine learning, basically in charge of the guts of this AI strategy. Can't wait to hear more about that. Looking forward to it.

We're also expecting to hear from the presidents this hour, along with Apple CEO Tim Cook. That stock jumping today on what the White House is calling a new $100 billion, investment commitment by Apple. We're going to bring that to you as soon as it begins. Apple having its best day since May. But for more on Apple and its impact on the market, let's go to Christina Parts and Avalis for more. Hi, Christina. Hi, you talked about Apple. It was the top performer on the Dow today. And among the biggest gainers on the S&P 500 and the NASDA closing up 5%. Morgan, you talked about the Apple announcement of a new $100 billion investment commitment

in the United States this hour at the White House. With that pledge, Apple's total US investment would reach $600 billion over the next four years. That headline number includes previous investments, so it isn't all net new spending. Apple, though, notched its best day since May, adding about $175 billion in market cap, not too shabby. It's roughly the size of an entire Boeing when we're talking about market cap. Suppliers like Corning, these are Apple suppliers, Jabal, and Skyworks also increased today, but Skyworks more specifically was helped by strong earnings. But if we zoom out, Apple's still lagging its big tech peers, especially in the Mag 7. And it's down about double digits this year alone.

Everything else you can see is in the green. Speaking of the White House, I can also confirm that NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Wong, also met with President Trump earlier today, not really having an effect on the stock, but worth a mention. Since I'm moving on to chips now, Super Micro shares tumbled after missing earnings and flagging concerns over cash flow and potential borrowing needs. And you can see the shares fell dramatically about 18%. Its outlook failed to clear that high buy. High bar, I should say, for AMD. There was also uncertainty around China revenue, also a drag.

So Super Microdown 18, AMD, down about 6%. Morgan. All right, some big moves. Christina Parsnevless, thank you. Now let's turn to the bond market as yields are rising this afternoon following a week auction of 10-year notes. Rick Santelli is joining us from Chicago and he has more. Hi, Rick.

Yes, it's kind of a split decision. You know, if you look at two's tens and thirties on one chart for a couple of days, you know, basically the two-year was leading the way when the curve was flattening. Then when the curve was steepening early this morning, the long end was leading rates higher. As a matter of fact, right now, you have tens, 20s, and 30s, yields are higher. You have all the other parts of the curve, twos through sevens, the yields are actually a bit lower. And if you look at that chart, when yields moved down, the complexion of the yield curve didn't change. But all three maturities kind of moved down after that auction.

It wasn't a good auction. Three year yesterday wasn't a good auction. Tomorrow we finish $125 billion of coupon supply with $25 billion 30-year bonds at 1 Eastern. LQD, that's an investment-grade ETF. We've talked about how many of the spreads like 30s minus 10s being so wide implies a steeper curve and higher interest rates. But the demand for investment-grade bonds, as you see in that chart, the high price of the year, that paints a bit of a different picture. And finally, the dollar index can't find any solid ground. You see that after the Friday jobs report, it's just downside.

It's given up most of the rally it had pre-jobs report last Friday. Morgan, back to you. Rick Santelli, thank you. As we await more from Tim Cook and President Trump's visit today, the White House juggling a number of other key issues. This includes Friday's weaker than expected jobs report, a Federal Reserve, which so far has resisted pressure to lower rates, although we did get some more dovish speak from officials so far this week.

At the same time, the Swiss president leaving the White House without a deal ahead of tonight's broad escalation of tariffs on more than 50 countries, including Switzerland. The new policies are set to go into effect at midnight tonight. Joining me now from the White House. And our first on CNBC interview is Steve Myron. He's chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Advisors. Chair Myron, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome.

Hi, thanks for having me. So I want to start with Apple. I know we're expecting this news just a little bit later here this hour, a new $100 billion investment. How much of this is new money dedicated to making products in America? Because we've had some analysts come on CNBC today and suggest that maybe some of this is repackaged investment that arguably Apple was already going to make. Right. So I'm not going to get into the details of what any specific company is doing. That's not my job. And I'm certainly not going to front run the president on the announcement. But what I will say is that I think that what we're seeing so far is a renewed commitment.

to investing in America and improving the resilience of American production and the self-sufficiency of the American economy, which is a great thing, both from a jobs perspective and also from a national security perspective. So more commitments like this from Apple and from other companies is definitely a good thing for America. How does the administration hold to account the promise of these investments, whether it's by companies or by countries, I think about Saudi Arabia or Japan, for example, with some of their pledges recently? What's the methodology to make sure those investments are actually being made and carried out?

Well, there's a lot of overlap on those two, right? And as far as the countries go, I think that the method to hold countries and the companies in those countries to their commitments is, of course, the tariffs, right? The trade deals the president has brought home, which have been monumental and in epic, historic restructuring of the global trading system, much to America's advantage, right? Those deals that the president brought home are contingent upon other countries, other companies living up to their terms for those deals. And if it turns out that the countries aren't living up to the terms they agree to,

then I would consider the rest of the deal to be something that would be similarly subject to revision. So just to dig a little deeper into that, how much are tariff-spurring investment inflows here into this country? Oh, well, I think we're seeing an enormous commitment to invest in the United States. And you see this through all the trade deals the president has brought home. We've got $550 billion of commitments from Japan. We've got, you know, 600 plus from the EU. We've got more from other countries in the pipeline. I think what we're seeing is a renaissance by which other countries,

you're deciding to invest in the United States. And by the way, the trade stuff is wonderful for that, but it's not just the trade. Let's not also forget about the one bit beautiful bill, including the full expensing on investment in equipment, in new factories, in R&D, and the aggressive deregulatory agenda of this administration as well to make it easier to build, invest, and hire in the United States.

All of this is aimed at making the United States the best place on earth to do business. Yeah, they all come together. So we just got the reports that Invidio's Jensen Wong met with President Trump today at the White House as well. Well, semiconductor tariffs are in focus, especially after the president said here on CNBC yesterday, that you can see those implemented as soon as next week. What do investors and the business and tech communities need to understand about these tariffs and to your point, this idea of reshoring? So I think what everyone needs to understand about both of these things is that the president is very serious about them and he has been serious about them from the very first day.

And I think there have been lots of people doubting that we would go as far as we have in service of the United States and in service of police. putting the American worker and the American business on fair ground with respect to the rest of the world. The doubters have been wrong, and the president has gone all the way, and it's delivered results. So is this what, in videos, Jensen Wong, was at the White House to talk about, these semiconductor tariffs, or was it something else? Well, I wasn't in that meeting, so I don't know exactly what he was talking about, but, you know, I think these are very significant issues, and you should have no doubt the administration is taking them very seriously with the utmost attention. I want to get your thoughts on what we've seen in terms of the

latest of the economic data. I know you were on CNBC late last week to talk about jobs report. I want to get into that too, but ISM services yesterday. Raise some questions about whether we're seeing the whiff of stagflation begin to emerge in the economic data. How do you see it? Well, look, I think there's no, there's been no question about it. A couple of data prints recent past, the job, you know, the revisions, the jobs thing, the ISM thing that you just mentioned. You know, they haven't been up to snuff with where we want them to be. However, I think that we have to understand that some significant headwinds to the economy have just turned to into enormous tailwinds.

And by this, I mean that we're finally getting clarity and resolution to some uncertainty associated with tariffs, trade, and uncertainty associated with the tax bill. Just a couple of months ago, people didn't know exactly where the tariffs would shake out. They didn't know about the investment deals, where those would shake out.

And they certainly didn't know the United States would be able to avoid the biggest tax hike in history that would have sent the economy careening into a recession, right? Now, not only is that uncertainty resolved, we know where the tariffs are, we know where the tax bill is, but they're turning into tailwinds with the significant

significant incentives for investment in the tax bill in the form of the full expensing stuff, the significant investment inflows that will be forthcoming from the agreements that other countries have made to invest the United States and to purchase American products. And these headwinds are turning into tailwinds, so I'm very confident in the future of the economy. I mean, there still are some big question marks out there, especially as it does relate to trade, whether it is deals with Canada, Switzerland, India, China, possibly Brazil. I realize there's a lot of heated rhetoric there, plus these sectoral tariffs, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals. So what does it take to establish more certainty around some of these areas

for the business community? Because I'm still hearing a lot of uncertainty from CEOs, and we are in earnings calls, too. Yeah. So, I mean, I would disagree with that assessment. I mean, if you look at the trade deals the president has brought home, not including China, they cover almost 60% of global GDP. So we are succeeding in creating a new U.S. aligned trade block as we restructure the global trading system. And the importance of that can't be, can't be discounted. If you include the Geneva consensus and our arrangement with China, that number's gonna be even higher, right? So there are some outstanding issues to,

there are some outstanding issues to wind up. We have to, you know, sort of finalize the deal with Mexico. I think things there are looking very promising. Canada needs to get its act together, you know? I think it's, you know, Canada has decided that it would rather be similar to China and retaliate against the United States than be similar to the European Union,

to Japan, to the United Kingdom, and come to a sensible arrangement with the United States that allows trade to continue to blossom between two countries. So there are a few outstanding issues, no doubt about it, but by and large, you know, the restructuring is underway and is looking great for America. And finally, I just want to shift gears a little bit here because we do have this opening on the Fed board. President Trump saying he expects an appointment by the end of this week. Are you involved in that process? And I guess since this will have to go through a Senate confirmation

process, could we expect to see that new nominee in the chair in time for the next? next FOMC meeting? So, of course, I give my advice to the president, to everyone else, you know, inside the White House about the qualities that I think are important in a Fed chair, sorry, in a new Federal Reserve Governor, a board of governors, a member. But, you know, I think that this seat is very important to the president, and you can tell that from how he talks about it. So I think it would be premature to prejudge the process when it's still very much ongoing. Understood. Steve Myron, chairman of the president of president trump c a c a it's great to have you back on uh over time

thank you for being with me thank you all right we've got some earnings to bring you air bnb lift and the lift numbers are out mackenzie sagallo's has the numbers hey morgan let's start with air bn b those shares moving higher up about two percent in the after hours after beating on the top and bottom line ePS coming in at a dollar and three cents ahead of the 93 cents expected revenue also a slight beat three point one billion against the three point one billion against the 3.04 billion street estimate thanks to solid growth in night stayed, plus a slight boost in that average daily rate. Now, gross booking value, which reflects what hosts are earning. That was a standout at 23.5 billion, beating expectations of 22.7 billion. Nights booked on Airbnb accelerated from

April to July. And then looking ahead, Airbnb guided Q3 revenue in line with estimates at 4.02 to 4.2 billion. adjusted ebita margin is expected to be lower year over year. And then that nights and seats booked category was a slight beat at 134.4 million. This is key because investors are looking for proof that its next act and experiences is gaining traction. The company also announcing a capital return move, authorizing a $6 billion share buyback. And then it is mixed results for Lyft. Those shares are plunging post-close around 9% lower right now. EPS, that was a beat at 10 versus the analyst estimate of four cents. Revenue, however, slightly missed at 1.59 billion.

The street wanted to see 1.61 billion. Gross bookings, that's the total value of rides on the platform, were basically in line at 4.49 billion. And then rides also landed close to expectations. Profitability, that was a bright spot here. EVIDA hit 129 million topping estimates. And then for Q3, Lyft is guiding gross bookings between 4.65 and 4.8 billion.

that is ahead of expectations, and it sees adjusted EBTA roughly in line with the street, but investors not liking what they're seeing, those shares down around 7.5% now. I'll send it back to you. Okay. Mackenzie Sagalos, thank you. We have a news alert on the Fed. Steve Leesman has the details. Hi, Steve.

Hey, Morgan. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley saying the Fed will likely need to adjust policy in the coming months. It should go recalibrate or be involved in recalibrating policy. to match the collective risk, that is, jobs, labor, and inflation now being sort of equal risk. Labor market, she says, has softened. And additional labor slowing, she says, would be, quote, unwelcome. The labor market tends to fall quickly and hard, Daly says, in her speech out in Alaska. And recent policy changes that the administration are creating uncertainty,

but the Fed, she says, cannot wait for certainty to act. Tariffs, immigration changes are pushing up inflation, reducing the pool of workers, monetary policy is trying to pull inflation down while tariffs are pushing it up. Inflation, she says, is still above target. We need to finish the job. But essentially, Morgan, she is pointing the way towards supporting, I would say, a rate cut in her comments today. Okay. Steve Leesman. Thank you. Coming up on overtime, more on today's market gains.

All the major averages getting back near their all-time highs. And could Apple be the driver for the next leg of the rally? That stopped jumping today. But it's been lagging its Mag 7 piers so far this year. We have a lot of show to bring you. Overtimes back in two. Welcome back to overtime earnings around. McKenzie Segalis is back with those.

Hi, Mac. Hey, Morgan. So Doordash beating on the top and bottom lines with those shares about 2.5% higher right now in the after hours. The company posting earnings of 65 cents per share well above the 44 cents expected and revenue of 3.4.

billion also came in ahead of estimates. One key metric we were watching for is marketplace gross order value. That's a total dollar amount of all orders placed on the platform. It came in at $24.2 billion, which is stronger than expected. DoorDash called out notable strength in U.S. restaurants and says customers are seeing more value in DashPass, that is its subscription service, while merchants are seeing more return for those members. Now, in terms of Q3, the company gave upbeat guidance, projecting profits above street expectations. I'm going to be listening in on that earnings call, which kicks off at 5 p.m., guys. All right, we're keeping you busy.

Mackenzie Sagallo, thank you. All three major averages finishing in the green today, the NASDAQ up 1%. Our next guest is warning of seasonal weakness ahead for the stock market, but could strong earnings reverse the usual August malaise. Well, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvesina, as well as Regents' wealth management, CIO, Alan McKnight. to have you both here. Alan, you're sitting here on set with me. Welcome. Let's start this conversation. What do you think of markets here? What would you be buying? Would you be

buying? I think right now as we look across the markets, we think mid-caps are particularly opportune because you see the rally in the Magnificent Seven. When you think about what's happened with tech, when you think about comm services, utilities, we really want to try to find some opportunities that haven't already received all the benefit of these really lofty valuations. Okay. Lori, seasonality at play here. Maybe some consolidation after a record run? What do you think? Yeah, look, I mean, if you look at the last five years, Morgan, August has been kind of mixed, September and October have tended to be weak. And if you look at the magnitude of the rally

we've had off the April 8th lows, it really exceeds what we typically have when we come off a, you know, kind of a growth scare low, an extreme drop like we saw back in April. So we think the market has really recovered a lot in terms of a sentiment move, really done what is deserved to do from that perspective. And now what we've got, you know, there are sort of hopes of rate cuts again that are boosting this market in recent days, but that's coming against the backdrop of real uncertainty about the ripple effects of tariffs through the economy, not just inflation, but in things like demand and labor. And so we think the stage is getting set for perhaps a rocky fall. Okay. Fed rate cut, would that be good for the market, or is it depend

on why the Fed is cutting? It's all about the why. And I think if the Fed is cutting because they're actually concerned and there's more of this pervasive fear, that's problematic. But if it's more in line with, we just think we need to reset and regage based on where we are from an economic cycle perspective, we think it actually works pretty well. And I think the real name of the game for us is going to be around the consumer, the U.S. consumer, how is labor feeling? We've seen some of the numbers today. When you look at McDonald's, they're still doing quite well, but it's almost a tale of two cities because then you hear some of these luxury brands that are suffering a bit. And so I think that's going to be, as we get in the second half of the year,

what's going to drive the markets. The continued bifurcation of the consumer. That's right. Lori, what do you like here? So look, I would say we still like the financials. And I'll tell you one thing that I'm getting a little bit irritated with the financial companies is that they're all saying the consumer is fine because they're looking at the higher level stats.

If you listen to consumer companies, they're saying there's more pressure underneath the surface and real signs of stress starting to emerge. But the financials do have a point in that consumer balance sheets are still in very good shape, especially for the higher end. And the financials, you know, we have to think back. a few weeks to when they reported, but really do seem to be managing well, checking in on their customers very closely, really keeping a keen eye on, you know, sort of the risk profile of their customer basis, both corporates and consumers. And the valuations, I think, are pretty

reasonable there. So we would stick with them. That being said, Morgan, if we have, you know, a little bit of an economics scare in here in coming months, they're probably going to take it on the chin, but we'd be buying on that weakness. Okay. Lori Calvesina and Alan McKnight, thank you both for joining me. Well, coming up, Apple CEO, Tim Cook, Arriving at the White House just a little while ago, we're expecting him to appear with President Trump to mark Apple's additional commitment to invest in the U.S. Plus, we're heading back to the West Coast with John in Seattle.

John, what's coming up? Well, Morgan, after earnings last week, investors have some questions about Amazon's velocity in the cloud versus its rivals. We're going to get some answers from the guy who runs compute for the cloud unit. We'll come right back. Welcome back to overtime.

Amazon stock getting a nice balance up 4% today after dropping post to earnings last week on investor concerns at AWS. The cloud and AI unit didn't grow as quickly as rivals in the quarter here in Seattle to unpack Amazon's AI strategy as VP Dave Brown, who runs compute and machine learning for AWS. Dave, thanks for having me here. Well, John, thanks for coming. It's great to have you at AWS in Seattle. Yeah, well, so Andy Jackson. on the earnings call, the CEO said that there's supply constraint.

That's a big part of the issue there as growth continues. What's your role in clearing the bottleneck? So I lead all of it, as you said, the computing and machine learning services at AWS with some of the networking service as well. So it's really making sure that we have the data centers, the power, the compute capacity available, where and when our customers need it. And energy is part of that as well. How much of this is just a bottleneck in build?

How much of it is the challenge of actually keeping those systems cooled and running efficiently? Well, John, we know that AI is going to change pretty much every application and the way of life around us as well. So the demand for AI is just changing from a day-to-day basis. Just a few years ago when the story started, we started to see an increase in demand, but demand is continued to increase. And so as we've increased supply, whether that's power, whether it's other parts of the supply

chain, to keep up with that demand, it's been a continued effort to ensure that we can continue to meet the demand that's out there. And you've got a new offering this week. OpenAI for the first time in this AI era is going to be available at least some of its models in part on AWS. Big deal or no? I think it is a big deal. Yesterday was very exciting for us.

We brought Open AI's open weight models to AWS. It's our Bedrock service. It's our service that serves many models to customers. We rarely believe in model choice. We want customers to come and find the best model for their needs. And having Open AI and Bedrock, I think, is. is a very important step. It gives customers more choice.

And having a look at the model, it's a very capable model and offered at a very low price as well. So I'm very excited to see over the coming days. And even this morning, getting some early reads has been very interesting to see what customers do with it. What determines whether AWS runs this better, right, than other platforms can? Because it is open source, it's openly available,

but that means it's got to be secured. That means the chips that power have to be cooled. What can you do to make AWS's business with open AI work better? better than others. Well, John, there's actually a lot. Firstly, is making sure we can run it in a way that improves utilization. So it gives customers the best deal out there.

Another one is customers are always looking for stability and availability and the best service. There's nothing worse right now than an interruption to any sort of workload. And as AI becomes more and more important for customer workloads, anytime the service has problems, that's going to impact their business. And so AWS, over the last 19 years, has proven that we can deliver better than anybody else to our customers. brought that experience to Bedrock as well and one of the ones that maybe customers don't think about as much well customers certainly do but maybe investors don't is security in today's

world security is critically important and we've as AWS we always say security is our number one priority and it really really is and Bedrock as a provider and AWS as a provider we've really prioritized ensuring that customer data is protected in the cloud and so with that model we have no access to customer data that they may put into the model we cannot see what the model may respond with. I mean, that's something we're just paranoid about as a customer, as a cloud provider, and customers really, really like that on AWS. So I want to talk about Project Reneer.

So it's either, I guess, like Cerebro or the Death Star, depending on who you're waiting for, but you're building this huge AI supercomputer based on your Trinium 2 chips, I believe. So it's your silicon, and a big, arguably flagship customer running on this is Anthropic. Open AI's rival, who you've invested quite a bit in. Am I right to view this as a really, really pivotal moment for the AWS business model and strategy? Because if you can demonstrate, in part, through Claude and Anthropics models,

that it can run on your silicon and perform really, really well, that might convince others to do the same? I think so. I think it is a pivotal moment, but I think they've been so many moments in the many years leading up to this. The first is that AWAS, will stop at nothing to innovate on behalf of our customers and give customers better performance

at a lower price. And as we look at AI in the world today, one thing we know is for it to be used more, the price has to come down. And that's one of the big reasons why we started investing in Own Custom Silicon. As you say, we have our Trainium-2 Accelerator, which Anthropic has chosen for the training and inference of their new models. And so to do that, now we need a very, very large training cluster. You've heard about some of these in the news. We're building what is called Project Grania, which is many hundreds of thousands of Trinium-2 accelerators, spread across multiple data centers within the U.S., and at the time it goes live, it will be the largest AI cluster supercomputer available on the market.

This seems to be a different bet from what Microsoft is making with Azure. There were some headlines out several weeks back that their own chip efforts may be delayed about six months for some of their AI accelerators. You seem to be leaning in even more, not doing as much, say, with NVIDIA's office. the shelf we'll kind of build it for you arguably commoditized approach to AI you're saying no we think we can do our own sauce and do it better and maybe have an advantage in the future well we certainly not saying no to Nvidia and so you know we really want to give customers choice and Nvidia is such an important part of the AWS

stack today you know we were the first cloud provided to bring in video to the cloud at a time when I don't think they were thinking about GPUs in the cloud this was 14 years ago we launched our first Nvidia GPU and it's been an incredible partnership we're building a supercomputer for our NVIDIA called Project Sabre, which is many, many, the GB 200, 20,000 GB 200s. And we have many customers on AWS using NVIDIA today, and that's a partnership that we will expect to grow over the years to come. When it comes to our custom silicon, the big difference is we started this all the way

in 2014 and 2015. And Andy always likes to say this, there's no compression algorithm for experience. And building custom silicon is really, really hard. So anybody looking to get started in the last year or two, they have a lot to learn. We've been learning that lesson now for more than 10 years. And so, you know, we're very pleased with the progress we've made on Traynium. We think competition and choice in the market is one of the best things we can give to our customers. So having both Envidia and Traneum and other chips that we may have in the future is just so important as customers want to be able to find the right chip for their workload.

All right. Dave Brown. Thanks for having me here. Thanks so much. We'll see who wins in this AWS competition. Morgan, back to you. All right. Some key color as we continue to cover this AI ecosystem. Well, coming up, a busy day at the White House. NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang, meeting with the president. We're expecting to see Apple CEO Tim Cook with President Trump any minute now after the company announced a new $100 billion investment in the U.S. We're going to bring you all of that live when overtime returns.

Welcome back. Let's check on some of the big overtime movers. We're going to start with Draft Kings. earnings of 30 cents a share, double the streets estimate, revenue also a beat. The company is saying it's on track to deliver full-year revenue at the high end of its previous guidance, thanks to what it calls sports book-friendly outcomes, meaning the House wins. Right now, investors win. Shares are up 4%.

The coffee chain, Dutch bros, also jumping after hours, beating on profit and sales. Similar to what we heard from McDonald's, Dutch bros, saying the customer is spending more per visit. Those shares are spiking 15.5%. And duolingo, also soaring after a big beat on earnings. Revenue also ahead of the estimates, third quarter sales guidance, topping the streets forecast, and you can see those shares are up 14%. Well, President Trump is meeting with Apple CEO Tim Cook right now to discuss Apple's new $100 billion investment in the U.S. The stock posting its best day since May on the back of that news and the expectation of this announcement we should be getting sometime here shortly.

Let's bring in Patrick Moorhead from More Insights and Strategy NCNBC's Steve Kovac. Steve, you're sitting here on set with me. Refreshing my phone again and again waiting for this press release to come from Apple because besides that headline number that our Megan Kinsella brought us from the White House official saying $100 billion in additional investment over the next four years, where is that money going? We've heard Apple do this for many years. Going back to 2017 in Trump's first term saying we're going to invest this much in the United States and, you know, things like that. But we don't really see physical things being built in the same way that perhaps the president wants.

We don't see manufacturing being added here. That $600 billion number, that is a great headline number. And I believe every bit of it that is going to end up filtering through the economy in some fashion. But we shouldn't read it as that's $600 billion worth of things being built in the United States. It includes so many things. Yes, it does include one factory. There's that one being built right now in the northwest side of Houston, Texas. But beyond that, it goes towards a lot of stuff.

They could be counting things that they were already planning to spend. That includes, you know, paying app store developers for when they sell their apps on the iPhone app store. That includes suppliers that already exist here. They did invest $500 million in that rare earth magnet company. That was a new thing that is happening to diversify the supply chain here in the United States. So we're going to be looking when this release does come out from Apple, where that $100 billion. dollar is going, or is it more kind of nebulous like they've been giving us over the last several months? Yeah, and I asked CEA chair, Steve Myron, Patrick, about this. And he basically said,

I'm not going to front run the president and the details are still being hashed out and, you know, basically wait and see here. But how are you gaming this out? Do you think this could be a nebulous investment announcement, or is this the beginning of more made in America by Apple? I am super skeptical here. And I feel like we've seen this movie before. right? People stand up, they get their pictures taken, make absurd dollar commitments that they may have already made before or would have made already or may never happen. How soon we forget that two administrations ago, Foxcon got up and said they were going to make a giant flat panel display factory in the Midwest, which never happened. And recently we had the $500 billion starget announcement

that maybe $30 billion in funding has been secured. The way that I view this is this is going to be an out for both Trump and Apple related to China and India tariffs. We're not going to see what really matters. We're not going to see iPhone assembly here. We're likely not going to see iPhone sub-assembly here or iPads or even for that matter, Max. So when you say an out, do you mean

the idea that Apple is going to be largely shielded from tariffs for anything it imports from those countries? Short answer is yes. And if you look at the last three or four administrations, Apple has been shielded not only from tariffs, but also legal judgments on IP that should have stopped iPhones being shipped into the U.S. So I think that once again, we're probably going to see Vietnam, China, and Taiwan. We're going to see zero tariffs based on this incremental $100 billion investment. Okay. So I guess this raises the question, Steve, how does this position Apple, given the fact that it has underperformed this year? There have been concerns about trade and tariffs and concerns about the relationship of this company with this administration.

I mean, this gets Trump off Tim Cook's back so Tim can actually sort of focus on what needs to happen. That's getting artificial intelligence right after missing in a very big way over the past year. That means getting China right, which has returned to growth with some caveats, but it has returned to growth and competing there. And then in about a month or so, Morgan, we're going to be talking about the next iPhone and the next crop of iPhone and what those devices can do to convince people to upgrade. That did not play out last year. Everyone was bullish about that, Apple intelligence.

Oh, I'm going to go out there buy the iPhone 16 so I can experience this great new Apple intelligence thing. Didn't happen. And so what can they do, at least on the hardware front? We know they're kind of sitting out artificial intelligence for now. All of this to say is this becomes less of a distraction for Apple. The perception, at least right now that we're seeing in the market is that this will, Trump will go a little bit easier on Tim Cook and Apple on the tariff front. We already know from Megan Kinsella reporting today. that doubling of India tariffs does not impact Apple.

So Apple is going to continue to ramp up its production in India and continue to sell those phones into the United States for now. And that's the trend we're going to keep seeing at least for the next few months. But yeah, this is getting Trump off his back. That's what we're looking at. Quickly, Patrick, semiconductor tariffs. What are you anticipating, especially as we know, as go the SMH, so goes the NASDAQ?

Yeah, I'm expecting another deal to be struck. is that it takes three to four years to get a new Foundry Underground Best Case, two and a half years. I think the only answer is going to be either TSM stepping up with even more investment or ratcheting up the tariffs, which there will likely be some carve-outs because if not, companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm would tank because their costs might go up 25, 30, 50, 50 percent. And that wouldn't be good for the entire market. What's not going to happen is these tariffs to stick as they are.

The entire tech stack would go down. Nobody believes this, which is why those companies are still doing very well, trading very high. Okay. Patrick Moorhead. Thank you. Steve Kovac. I literally just got the press release from Apple.

They just texted me right now. So I'm reading through this. This is part of the $100 billion commitment, as we knew, on top of the $500 billion. They have new, they're calling the new American manufacturing program saying the first AMP partners include Corning. That's a previous Apple supplier, coherent, global wafers in America, applied materials, Texas instruments, Samsung, global foundries, Amcorr, and Broadcom are all being supported by the. this $100 billion commitment. The expansion means soon every iPhone, and I'm quoting from the release here, every iPhone and Apple Watch sold around the world will be built with Kentucky-made cover glass.

By the way, they already do make the Corning Glass situation in Kentucky. That's already part of it. And the two companies will open a new Corning Innovation Center in Kentucky. We're also seeing a multi-year agreement. Apple says it's entered with coherent, which is calling a longstanding partner that produces lasers and enables multiple features like face ID on your phone. So a lot of partnerships here being announced that's going to happen here and the I'd say this is what I was looking for.

Let's see some concrete things. Companies involved, suppliers involved. This is way more concrete, at least at my first pass of this, that they're... Yeah, and look at what's happening on the screen right now. Global Foundry's up 2%, corning up 4%. Applied materials, basically flat right now. I don't know if we have coherent. We could pull up, but Patrick Moorhead, want to get your response to this because manufacturing

an actual manufacturing investment being made, or at least the announcement of one being made here? Every single one of the companies that Steve listed off already have manufacturing here, coherent, applied materials, Corning, Global Foundries in New York. This seems to me like a smokescreen unless we could get the data that says, here is the incremental investment. I want to see new fact.

opening up. I want to see numbers behind this. Otherwise, this is just spin. Okay. Yeah, I'm not seeing any solid numbers in here, to Patrick's point. And again, these are all existing suppliers, all existing U.S.-based suppliers. That is true. So what would make it, so what would make it not a smokescreen to you, Patrick? Is it the idea that final assembly is actually happening here? Well, what I'd like to see is the amount of increased square footage that everybody's on the record saying it wasn't in our initial plan. That would be impressive. What would make it most impressive is getting some iPhone sub assemblies aside from the display and some of the coherent things inside of face ID. That would be impressive. They're also saying, I'm also reading

this, sorry, just going through as quickly as I can. So on the broad come front and global foundries front, Again, previous partners with Apple, they said they're going to start to develop and manufacture additional semiconductor components for 5G and other wireless communication, things like that. So that also sounds like something new being built here, but we're going to have to look at the details there. All right. So something new there, maybe something new with Corning. We're seeing all these stocks trade higher right now. Applied Materials Corning, Global Foundries, coherent, all trading higher on this news. Patrick Moorhead, thank you.

Steve Covack. Thank you as well. Thank you. Meantime, industrials. Speaking of manufacturing, they're still the best performing sector on Wall Street. Up next, Mike Santoli looks at whether those stocks are starting to look expensive. Plus, we are awaiting the pricing of Firefly Aerospace of the IPO, and we're going to bring you those details once they're announced as Defense Tech and Space Tech continue to take off. Welcome back. The industrial sector has had a run-up, thanks to the AI hype, making it the best sector of the year so far. There have been some other secular growth trends, too, powering it. But has the sector gone too far too fast? Let's ask senior markets commentator Mike Santoli. Hi, Mike.

Hey, Morgan. You know, there has been just a little bit of a half step back in the industrial sector in response to some earnings reports. You see it here relative to utilities. And then, of course, both of those handily outperforms. forming the S&P 500. So yes, a lot of trends going on even outside of the sort of AI Power Generation Data Center area. But those stocks in particular have had a little bit of a rethink after a very strong run. Take a look here at three of those stocks. Today, Emerson Electric, it was down 5%. Actually in the morning, it was down almost twice that much in response to roughly on target earnings. And you see that's EMR. ETN is eaten. That also had a rough day in response to pretty good earnings this week. And Quantum Services, PWR, that's another one that's very much levered to the electrical infrastructure buildout related to AI. All of them also sitting

at valuations relative to the earnings that are at the very high end of their long-term rate. So I would basically view this as more of a gut check and maybe sort of a kind of a refresh on these trends, but shows you that the bar is pretty high for them to continue performing. They sort of initially were held by traditional sort of value industrial investors. They got kind of jazzed by this new growth story. We'll see how that plays out in coming months. I want to get your, I'm going to throw you on the spot here, Mike. I want to get your reaction to this news as we're digesting it in real time to Apple and its manufacturing here in the U.S.

And specifically the Corning piece of this, because it looks like Apple's making a new $2.5 billion commitment to produce all the cover glass for iPhone and Apple Watch in Kentucky with Corning. 100% of the cover glass on iPhone and Apple Watch units sold world. worldwide, so not just in the U.S. will be made in the U.S. for the first time. And we've been talking about these investment pledges and promises. This one really seems to have some meat on the bones. And it's interesting to see this Apple ecosystem trading higher here and overtime on it. Sure. And for a corning, of course, that's going to be, if it's incremental in that amount, it's material to a company of that. I mean, it's a big company, of course, but not compared to Apple. So I do think that you're going to this money gets spread around

throughout the ecosystem, and you'll probably feel it if, in fact, it is largely incremental. I think from the market's perspective, investors today, as they were reacting in the form of buying Apple shares, it was mostly because it seems like it's going to allow them to perhaps sidestep the real brunt of some of the incremental tariffs that might be coming on imports from India. So I think all of that fits together with kind of an excuse to have Apple shares play some catch-up, and then, of course, the related stocks, you know, based on what we know, right? because I'm sure Apple IR is going to be out there talking to the street and tell them how to think about this going forward in their CAPEX and manufacturing plans. Yeah, it does sort of get back to this whole idea of the industrial part of the economy, the industrial stocks, material stocks, and some of the moves we've seen there in this idea of investment into supply chains here in the U.S.

Mike Santoli, thank you. Up next, all of tomorrow's overtime earnings and key economic data that need to be on your radar, plus we are awaiting President Trump speaking about this huge. new investment in the U.S. by Apple. You can see the White House right there on your screen. We're going to bring you to that or bring that to you, I should say, once it begins. Welcome back. Some big movers in the after-hour's action. Shares of lift falling in overtime after reporting revenue below what the street was looking for.

Apple Levin also getting punished for our revenue miss, even though Erniece came in well ahead of estimates. Those shares are down 6%. Zillow missing on earnings, but the stock is holding up here in overtime. It's down just fractionally. But let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. It'll be another big hour of earnings right here on overtime. We're going to get results from Block, Expedia, TripAdvisor, Take 2 Interactive, Instacart, Pinterest, Flutter Entertainment, Live Nation, and Rocket Lab. We also get a new IPO tomorrow with Firefly Aerospace. I'm going to be monitoring that one. But that's going to do it for us here at overtime. Fast money begins right now. You guys are new Mark?