Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Coinbase CEO From White House After Crypto Bill Signed Into Law; Private Assets In Your 401(k)? 7/18/25

Episode Date: July 18, 2025

A busy Friday show: Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer weighs in on the market mood while BD8’s Barbara Doran breaks down the key earnings coming next week. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joins from the White House after President Trump signed key crypto legislation into law. Our Leslie Picker breaks down why private assets likely won’t flood 401(k)s—even if Trump clears the path. Citi’s Jason Gursky previews defense earnings.

Well, that's the end of regulation United wholesale mortgage ringing the closing bell the New York Stock Exchange New York City Department of Transportation Doing the honors at the Nasdaq stops pulling back reversing course today after a series of record highs Although just taking a look at the Nasdaq here We did finish at a new record for the Nasdaq today Albeit just barely the Nasdaq has had a record close every day this week The S&P did hit an intraday high before turning lower as well. We saw small losses for the Dow. The Nasdaq though is up more than 1%. It's up 28% in three months. Utilities, that was the best performing sector in the S&P 500 today. That hit a record high as well. Talon Energy soaring after making a big purchase

of two gas-powered plants. Vistra, Constellation and Energy also with big gains in sympathy. 3M weighing on the industrials, which had also been near record highs. The stock falling despite beating on earnings and raising guidance. It's now expecting a small hit from tariffs. One area of concern, slower cash flow

as the company faces potential legal liabilities and checkout whirlpool. That's down again today following a warning by rival Electrolux. The stock is down 13 percent on the week on fears of higher interest rates that could slow or continue to slow, I guess I should say, the housing market. That is the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan. John Ford is off today.

It has been a big week for crypto on Capitol Hill and on Wall Street, a huge gain, especially for ether, but also the crypto related stocks, including Robinhood and Coinbase. Ahead, we are going to talk to Coinbase CEO and co-founder, Brian Armstrong, about this new legislation. And we will get you ready for a huge week

of earnings that's coming up. Tesla and Alphabet are the biggest names, but Coke and IBM are among a host of others that we're watching. Earnings season officially kicked off this week with 12 percent of the S&P reporting. And so far, the numbers have been pretty strong. Eighty six percent of firms have beat EPS expectations. Sixty percent have beat sales forecasts. Our next guest expects the positive earnings momentum to continue, says we are now in, get this,

not just a US, but a global bull market. So joining us now is Urien Timmer of Fidelity, and Urien, it's great to have you on the show, welcome. Good afternoon, Morgan. So let's start right there, because one of the things you say in your notes is that momentum begets momentum, and so you see us moving higher from here.

Yeah, so obviously the S&P is making new all time highs. One of the fastest ever recoveries from a 20% decline only bested by the 1998 reversal in late 2018. So very, very impressive V-shaped recovery. And when an index or a stock market is, you know is rising over time, has a rising trend line, is making new highs, that momentum tends to, like you said, beget more momentum. The question, of course, is what is the price we're paying to be long that index, right? And so the price to free cash flow is 37 times, it's in the top decile of all time. So it's a question of price and value.

What do you pay? What do you get? That question is a little bit less urgent when you go overseas. And if you look at, for instance, the MSCI All Country World Index, XUS, that is also making new highs, whether it's expressed in dollars or in local currency terms So that's a very bullish chart and it doesn't have that that valuation Overhang that that the u.s. Has so it's nice to see global participation for investors

Whether you're a stock picker or an asset allocator It's nice to be able to fish in a big pond with a lot of fish rather than a very narrow pond and we have a pretty big pond right now. Okay so is the read through there that if you have money to work with right now maybe you look globally or internationally and wait for a pullback here in the U.S.? You certainly could do that but the broader point is that it's a real more level playing field now for the last 10 years. If you were not in the U.S. or in large cap tech or the Mag 7, you were really missing out.

And that was the only game in town. And so what's nice is it's no longer the only game of town. So whether it's for geopolitical reasons or trade or what have you, if the playing field is more level, it just creates more opportunity to kind of spread our assets more broadly around the world to get both the growth and the valuation side. We've been talking so much about the Fed,

especially with all the rhetoric, shall I say, back and forth from between the White House and Fed leadership, or maybe it's more one-sided this week. But I do want to get your thoughts on what we're seeing here in the US in the bond market and specifically the impact that the tax and budget bill could have on that picture as we have had a yield curve that continues to steepen.

Yeah, so this is the other elephant in the room, right? So we all know the whole terror story in the market, you know, repriced itself very, very quickly in April from expecting a big left-tail event to now expecting a right-tail event. And we got some of that because the tariff story has died down a little bit, not a lot, but also we got the big beautiful bill, of course, which acts as another fiscal impulse. But it carries with it a cost, and that is that there's now $5 trillion of extra deficits to be funded.

And there's no low hanging fruit like we had in 2023 under the previous Treasury Secretary, where Janet Yellen could just switch from long dated bonds to short dated. And there was $2 trillion of reverse repo sitting at the Fed that can just be tapped into without any cost, without any effect on reserves. That's not really the case anymore. And at the same time, the 10-year treasury is at 443. It was near 450 yesterday.

As I like to say, nothing good ever happens after midnight, but also nothing good ever happens above 4 and a half. And at above four and a half, the treasury bond market, which is supposedly the risk free asset, is very competitive with equities, which also yield a four and a half percent earnings yield. And so when you go back into periods of history where yields are competitive and relatively high, the stock market has to pay attention to that when yields go up. And so if yields do go up above 4.5 towards 5, not a prediction, but it could happen with

this fiscal load that we have to bear, it's going to put some pressure on equity valuation. So that's definitely the other side of the coin here. And of course, I have to ask you, especially because honestly, you're one of the first people on Wall Street to really dig in and do your research on this. But Bitcoin, especially on a day where you're seeing the first of three pieces of crypto legislation being signed into law by the president, want to get your thoughts on what we're seeing and what's propelling that trade. So Bitcoin has come of age.

I like to think of it as gold's precocious younger sibling. Bitcoin is also a speculative asset. It also can be a risk asset. So you never know exactly which Bitcoin is going to show up any morning. Sometimes it's gold. Sometimes it's the NASDAQ. But certainly, 16 years old, having survived three winters,

you cannot call it a fad anymore. It has proven itself. It has a very large and powerful network, and now we have the stablecoin regulation, which cements the crypto space even further. It now has a $4 trillion AUM in terms of crypto and stable coins. And now, of course, Ethereum is really getting into the forefront because it has about a 50% market share of stable coins. And so this is an industry that is really coming of age.

And you can't ignore it anymore. The question is, what do you own for what reason? Like do you own Bitcoin as a hard money asset? Do you own Ethereum as a play on a new world order of how money is used and moves around? But it's a really fun topic to be contemplating. All right. Well, as all of it plays out, I'd love to have you back to talk about it more. Thank you.

You're Ian Timmer. Great to have you on, thank you. With what we'll call essentially a flat day for stocks here, the SMP finishing almost literally flat, the Dow down fractionally, down on the weak fractionally as well and the NASDAQ higher fractionally. We'll check out shares of Sarepta Therapeutics, because that's down 36% today. That comes after a 20% gain yesterday,

but those are just numbers. There is a huge personal angle to this story. So let's bring in Angelica Peebles. She's here on set with me. She's going to explain Angelica. Yeah, Morgan, there's a lot going on here, but the main news is that the FDA is planning to ask, disrupt it, to halt shipments of its gene therapy produced on muscular dystrophy. That's called elivis, elivitis, excuse me. And that's according to a person familiar with the matter. Now two patients died after receiving this gene therapy. And last night we learned that another person died after receiving a similar treatment from Sarepta. Now look, this has been a drug that's been controversial since before it was approved for some patients in 2023. And the debate got even hotter when the FDA

expanded use of that drug in 2024. And now it's boiling over as these safety issues are emerging. So this treatment hasn't definitively proven that it can benefit people with Duchenne, especially in these advanced cases where those patients are older. But if you talk to parents with Duchenne and they'll tell you they really don't have other options here. I've talked to moms who've said that they've watched their toddlers struggle to walk and start falling behind their peers. And I was actually just on the phone with a

mom whose 18 year old can't use the bathroom on his own anymore. And he's losing the ability to use his hands, meaning he probably won't be able to feed himself pretty soon. And this is a disease where also most patients die in their twenties. And the one thing that you'll hear over and over again is that they want the choice. So the mom thing that you'll hear over and over again is that they want the choice. So the mom with that 18 year old told me that her family actually decided against this gene therapy because they didn't feel like the risk

was worth the potential benefits, but she was happy that she was able to make that decision and she wants other families to be able to have that choice as well. Yeah, it's heartbreaking. And I think so much of the time, especially when you see a big move in a stock like what we saw yesterday. And then of so much of the time, especially when you see a big move in a stock like what we saw yesterday.

And then, of course, today on the inverse with Sarepta, we talk about the money piece of this. But the human piece of it is key. I think especially when you're talking about something like experimental treatments and new potential drugs that could change somebody's life. And we need to be thinking more about the risk reward skew because the human piece of it actually adds a lot of nuance, including for investors. Exactly. And these are not easy decisions. And if you talk to people at the FDA, again, this was incredibly controversial. The former head of this division at the FDA, Peter Marks, overruled his staff to actually

approve this and bring it to the market. And it'll tell you, you know, we felt like we were making a decision that weighed the benefits versus the risks because there are no other options for these patients. And again, that's part of the market opportunity here is that, you know, these are people who are willing to take some of that risk. But the thing you just hear over and over is that there has to be a different calculation for some of these drugs. But again, you know, there are a lot of people who disagree with the management of this company

feel like they have destroyed the value here in the way that they've handled this whole situation, that there is an incredible opportunity here to help people, but maybe they could have gone about this in a different way. So just a lot of opinions, really, every way you look at this. Yeah, and of course, what this means

in terms of read through for regulations moving forward too. Angelica Peebles, thank you. Well, coming up, we are getting ready for a busy week of earnings. Tesla and Alphabet headlining the parade. We're also going to get a slew of defense names, aerospace and defense. The sector ETF, the ITA hit another all time high earlier this week. We'll have the trade on those names ahead. Overtime is back in two. Welcome back to overtimevertime Healthcare,

continuing its struggles. The sector is the worst performer on the S&P 500 this year, and one of only two that are in the red over the past three months. It's the health insurance names. Again, those are the biggest drags on the sector. Elevance falling again today after its earnings warning yesterday.

It's down 17% this week. Also big losses this week for Molina, Centine, Humana, and for United Health. Well, switching over to defense, the sector ETF, the ITA, closing higher this week after hitting an intraday high back on Monday. Next week, we're gonna get earnings from defense names like RTX and Lockheed Martin, L3 Harris, and others.

So what can we expect? And should you be playing any of these names? Well joining us now is Jason Gursky from Citi and Jason. It's great to have you on and let's start right there because we do have these secular growth stories whether it's on the defense side as global spending is on the rise or on the commercial aero side and now of course this whole I'd, frontier tech, new mobility trend seems to be poised for an inflection point as well. So what do you like? Well, it's hard not to like both sides of the ledger that you just mentioned, both defense and aerospace. But going into earnings next week, we're most constructive at this point on

the defense names. Rising budgets, both here in the United States and in Europe provide a lot of visibility for these companies. Huntington Ingalls, Northrop Grumman, RTX, LHX and General Dynamics are a few of our favorites going into the week, next week. I expect to hear them talk about, you know, growing bidding activity, the outlook for bookings in the future, and the potential for margin expansion.

As we get through some of these poorly performing programs that they've had post pandemic, those come to an end, we're signing on new contracts that are gonna be margin accreted for these companies out into the future. We just got this 2025 budget, and now of course Congress is marking up

both a defense policy bill, the NDAA, and the appropriations bill for fiscal 2026. Who stand to be the biggest beneficiaries? Look, I think everybody. It's going to be a rising tide for sure. But look, as you look at the priorities that the president has laid out, air and missile defense, Golden Dome, and those companies that are going to play into that are the MissileMaker. So RTX and Northrop are two companies that I would point you to.

Shipbuilding, right? He has talked about the gap in capacity between ourselves and the Chinese, with the Chinese having many, many multiples of productive capacity higher than we do here in the United States and his desire to invest in the throughput and overall capacity of the shipbuilding industrial base, which is why we're constructive on Huntington Ingalls and General Dynamics. International sales, do those become a growing piece of the overall revenue pie for some of these names? Yeah, no doubt about it, right? The Europeans are going to go from roughly 2-2.5% of GDP today to 3.5% on pure defense and 5% if you include some of the infrastructure that they're going to use to support the defense

industrial base in Europe. Look, the United States has been spending 3% to 5% of our GDP on defense for decades, and we've been investing in new technologies. The Europeans up until here recently were sub 2. They don't have the IP, the capacity, the most capable sets of weapon systems. And so I think we are going to see the Europeans buy more from US companies, particularly when it comes to air and missile defense and things like fifth generation fighters like the F-35. Defense tech and commercial space, these are areas where investors are very, very excited

both in public markets and in private markets. Do you think we're going to see, whether it's along those lines or whether it's even along some of the more traditional primes? Do you think we're going to see more M&A perk up now? Oh, that's a good question. I mean, look, certainly the lessons out of Ukraine is that we need a lot of unmanned, autonomous, attributable mass. And that seems to be where a lot of these defense companies are focused today. You've got private companies like Anderl that have been buying companies, right?

They're trying to propagate their Lata software out onto as many platforms as they can get their hands on. So yeah, they're certainly engaged in M&A. Look, the value proposition for a large cap company to be buying one of these defense tech companies, you know, they'd have to have a lot of faith at career valuations that the revenue is going to pull through. So, but look, I think a lot of these privately funded defense tech companies have an opportunity to continue to bolster out their portfolios over time.

Okay, Jason Gursky, thank you for joining me. Thanks. Well, a big week for your money in Washington. The president a short time ago signing legislation aimed at cryptocurrencies and we've got more bills that could be coming. So coming up, we're gonna talk to Coinbase's CEO, Brian Armstrong, about all of it.

Also, we're expecting to get an executive order on making private investment options available in 401ks. But will it really have a big impact on those asset management names? We did see them move higher on expectations of that. We're going to discuss it. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Dell Technologies, a big gainer today, closing up 6%. JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America Securities all raising their price targets on stock. Bank of America says the company has the potential to double its earnings by 2030 as it benefits from the growth of AI.

The stock is up 55% in the past three months. Well, the big asset managers have moved higher this week on the expectation that President Trump would sign an executive order allowing investments in private assets in 401k plans. But just because investors can do it, does it mean they will? Leslie Picker is joining us now with more. Hi, Leslie.

Hey, Morgan. Yeah, that's the key question here, right? Because technically your retirement account has been able to invest in alt for the last five years, ever since the Department of Labor indicated that an employer would not be skirting its fiduciary duty by including these types of assets. However, there hasn't been a broad-based allocation to 401ks due largely to concerns around fees and opacity and potential returns or suitability. Now, the details of the so-called, or of the EO are scarce, but the Wall Street Journal

reported that it would instruct agencies like the DOL and the SEC to put out guidance related to this area. It's clear why the alt industry wants this fundraising across nearly every strategy is lower, particularly in private equity, real estate and venture capital. And the defined contribution space opens up 12 and a half trillion dollars to potentially capture here. However, according to pitch book, there are three main hurdles which are unlikely to be solved through an EO, including cost, it's expensive to invest in private assets while

you can trade stocks for pennies, lack of investment expertise among 401k plan providers, and then the big one here is litigation risk, Morgan. Why is litigation risk the big one? Because we're talking about such opaque markets that are so illiquid, and there's this notion that maybe investors could get burned here? That's it, and also just the overall high fees associated with private assets,

as well as if those high fees don't ultimately deliver returns, you open yourself up to a whole slew of litigation risk, which has largely kept some of these plan providers on the sidelines for the time being. The litigation risk is the key issue that people in the alternative space needs to be changed in order to see kind of meaningful adoption of private assets in a bigger way. Basically, they don't want to be sued if things go south. And given just the challenges associated with doing due diligence and research on the managers and so forth and the high cost associated with it, it is a huge vulnerability

right now. Okay, Leslie Picker, thank you. Well it's time now for a CBC News Update and for that we turn to Kate Rogers. Kate. Hi Morgan, the explosion at a Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department training facility this morning in East LA that killed three deputies was the deadliest incident in the agency's history. Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna added there is no threat to the East LA community following the incident, which Luna called isolated. The sheriff said investigators are still looking into the cause of the explosion. The Environmental Protection Agency today announced a restructuring and a reduction

in its workforce at its Office of Research and Development. The agency says the restructuring is delivering almost $750 million in savings. According to Reuters, the EPA has cut more than 3,700 jobs since January. And the TSA is rolling out dedicated security lanes for families. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced the initiative this week called Families on the Fly. A pilot-ready program is already underway at an airport in Orlando, one of the country's biggest theme park hubs.

Noem also announced new honor lanes for military service members and their families. Morgan, back over to you. All right, Kate Rogers, thank you. Well, the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 20% over the past three months. That's a record rally off the April lows. The best performing stock in the index over that time, it's Coinbase. It's at more than 130% in just three months. Ahead, the company's CEO, Brian Armstrong, will join us after attending the bill signing by President Trump, who praised the company.

I also want to recognize some of the countless industry leaders here today, including Brian Armstrong of Coinbase. You've done a good job, Brian. That's a big deal. You've done a good job, Brian. That's a big deal. Welcome back to overtime. Stocks closing flat on the day, a very small gain for the Nasdaq, as you can see right here. And for the week, we had gains for the S&P 500 and for the Nasdaq, although the Dow with today's move lower did turn lower on the week.

Now, on the commodities front, crude Brent and gold posting their first negative week in three on the flip side, NatGas posting the biggest weekly gain in more than a month. It was a big week for crypto as well as legislation made its way through Congress. Bitcoin flat on the week, but did trade at all time highs. But a huge gain for Ethereum, that is at more than 20% this week.

Check out Sharp Link, Gaming, and Bitmine Immersion. Both companies have been stockpiling Ethereum and you can see right there on the chart investor reaction to that. Meantime, check out shares of Coinbase because the stock hitting an all-time high and posting its fifth straight weekly gain. It's up 80% over that period. It's also the best S&P performer over the past three months. The enthusiasm continuing today as the administration signs into law key stable coin legislation, the Genius Act, that gives the market more clarity.

Shares finished up more than 2%. So joining us now from the White House is Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong along with our own Emily Wilkins. Emily, take it away. Thank you so much, Morgan. Brian, thank you so much for

being here. You got that shout out, of course, from the president. Talk to me a little bit about what this stablecoin bill becoming law is going to mean for Coinbase. Yeah well this stablecoin bill passing is really a financial revolution for America. It means that crypto can finally start updating the financial system especially for our payments which are running on these creaky old systems that are decades old. Now every

payment in our economy can be fast and cheap and global, you know, under one second and one cent anywhere in the world. So this is a huge milestone for crypto and the job's not done. We also want to get the market structure bill called clarity passed as well. The president said he wants to see that on his desk by September 30th. We're committed to trying to help that happen along with the rest of the industry and it offers good consumer protections and regulation for Bitcoin, Ethereum, all the non-stablecoin crypto assets as well. And let's talk about that market structure bill for a minute. Obviously the House passed their bill with strong bipartisan support, but the Senate

is planning on coming up with their own version of this bill. Should the Senate just take up the House version given the strong support or if not, what do you want to see the Senate change from the House version? We actually really like the House version it's called the Clarity Act and we think it's a really good piece of legislation. Now the Senate will have to look at it and see if they want to make any edits to it but I'm hoping that there aren't too many and that we can get it on the President's desk by September 30th. Brian it's Morgan it's great to have you back on overtime. Congrats on the milestone today. I want to go back to this to this creaky financial infrastructure. How quickly can

that infrastructure now be overhauled with this legislation making its way into place? Yeah, well, I think now that we have clear legislation, we're going to see the Fortune 500 really start to adopt stable coins. We've started to see this a little bit already, even with the news that this was going to pass in the near future. Coinbase just launched an integration with Shopify, for instance, and we've seen announcements from Walmart and Amazon,

and almost every Fortune 500 company is now coming in and starting to look at stable coin payments. And so this is a big opportunity for us. It's a TAM expansion for our business, and we think that we can provide these wallets and payment APIs for really you know the whole financial system and every company eventually. Yeah and is it safe to call this a new and emerging revenue stream for Coinbase and if so how how quickly does that grow over time? Yeah so that's absolutely right. Our first revenue stream was around

trading and then we also have subscription and services which has become a bigger and bigger part of our revenue over time. I think payments is the next big category and this is a daily use case for crypto for millions of Americans and eventually people around the world especially those doing cross-border transactions and in countries where they don't have stable currency they might have you know 50 100 inflation a year and so they have high demand for the dollar they can now if they have a smartphone they can get access to a dollar denominated account and so i think trading and payments are going to

be the two biggest categories for us and it's absolutely a new revenue line for us that'll smooth out our revenue with like a daily use case that's not tied to crypto trading volatility brian we're thinking about what's next for crypto, obviously, fair shake and crypto had a big role to play in the 2024 elections. Coinbase gave, I believe, 100 million to that pack and has continued to give you now fair shake has a war chest of 141 million dollars. What's the strategy as you go into the midterms? Yeah well we've always felt that it's important to support our customers. There's 52 million Americans who have used crypto and they needed to have representation that was

aligned with their values and so we were very proud to step up and support them. I think that drove the most pro crypto Congress ever in this last election and the job is not done. We still need to see the Clarity Act come into law. I think there will be other issues on the horizon that we would like to go after and try to support our customers as well. Just to give you one small example in the stable coin legislation that just passed, there's a prohibition on interest and yield

that the community bank lobby somehow managed to get in there with a straight face arguing that, you know, these financial institutions shouldn't have to pay more money to their customers. In fact, it's prohibited by law. It's kind of the opposite of consumer protection. I would call it consumer harm or protecting one's profit margins. And so it's kind of unimaginable that that got in there, but Coinbase is going to continue

to pay rewards to our customers. The average savings account in America pays 14, 0.14%. We can give our customers 4.5% rewards which is not yield in interest and so These are examples of the kind of things that we're going to keep stepping up and fighting for to Help update the financial system with crypto when it comes to some of these future things that are further down the line like interest I mean right now you have this Republican trifecta in DC You it's been called the most crypto friendly Congress ever is there going to be a time where if Democrats get the House or the Senate, the momentum behind crypto legislation

could run out? I don't think so. Actually crypto is the most bipartisan issue in Congress. That's why these are going into law, right? Even though there is a Republican majority in the Senate, for instance, you still have to get 60 votes. You have to get a bipartisan vote in the Senate. And for this Clarity Act in the House,

they actually got 78 Democrats to vote for it. In fact you know Elizabeth Warren the Democrat members of her own party on her you know she chairs the Senate Banking Committee and the Democrat members of her committee actually voted against her right and so it just shows that this is truly a bipartisan issue that the American people want and their elected representatives are helping bring it into law. And Brian I just want to take a step back to something that maybe it's a very basic question but I think it's sort of a key question as investors wrap their arms around all this and I think it's tied to the Clarity Act and that is this notion that regulation fully now shifts from the SEC to the CFTC. I think

representing this idea that all cryptocurrencies not not just Bitcoin, are regulated as commodities. Why is that so important for this asset class to move forward? Yeah, so that's actually not quite accurate. The Clarity Act provides a role for both the CFTC and the SEC. And what it does is it creates a clear test. And it says, you know, if you've met this decentralization test, for instance, then this asset is a commodity. But if you're raising money for a company or for a real estate project or something

like that, that is a security and we want to have a clear path to actually register securities and totally improve the way that capital formation happens. You know, I was at the SEC earlier today actually and Chair Atkins was at this event and I think that he and Hester Purce and the crypto task force have been very constructive in terms of trying to create clear rules where crypto can actually improve capital formation as well and make that more efficient. So there's a role for both the CFTC and the SEC in this new Clarity Act. Brian talk me through the timeline here for a minute on the market structure bill the Clarity obviously the House has

now moved the Senate hasn't even put their bill text out yet what are you expecting for the rest of the year? Could this fight go into next year as well? Yeah, well we think that we're close We hope we're close and the Senate is going to look at this bill and it's really the Senate Banking Committee in the Senate Ag Committee You know with Senator Tim Scott and Senator John Bozeman They're gonna be the ones that go in there and do the markups look look at their own amendments, see if the Senate has a slightly different take on it,

and hopefully it gets a bipartisan vote in the Senate, it'll go back to the House, and then hopefully it gets the President's desk by, you know, September 30th. That's the goal. You never know with these things, legislation can, anything can happen, but we're seeing such a strong vote out of the House with, again, 78 Democrats. I think, you know, if it had just been five or 10 Democrats, I think we would have said, ah, you know, this could have a tough time in the Senate. But with 78 Democrats voting for it, I think it's showing true bipartisan momentum. And everyone who I just spoke to at this signing event, uh,

the members of Congress and the Senate, they all said we're on it. We, we have, we feel optimistic this can get done. Well, September 30th is a bit ambitious given everything they have to get done, but Brian, we will be following it closely. Thank you so much for joining us. This is Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase. Morgan, back to you. All right.

And thank you to our own Emily Wilkins as well with great reporting on all of this all week as always. Well, talk about out of this world gains. Shares of Planet Labs, more than tripling over the past year. Up next, we're going to give us, the CEO is going to give us an outlook for the company and deal making in the space industry. Plus, will Tesla's recent troubles have a huge impact on earnings next week? We're going to get the Tesla trade later on Overtime.

Welcome back to Overtime. Check out shares of Ampreus Technologies flying high today. William Blair upgrading the maker of lithium ion batteries to outperform from market perform, saying rising demand for drones and high altitude pseudo satellites should lead to higher sales. You can see that stock finished up about seven and a half percent. It's been a big winner in 2025 as well, tripling so far this year. Well, now it's time for this week's manifest space. Shares of Planet Lab continuing their move higher this week, rising nearly 7% adding to a 62% return so far this year, up 200% over the past 12 months. Now,

the earth observation analytics company has inked a flurry of deals recently, including with Germany, NATO, several within the U S defense department and just week, we saw an extension of another deal. Now, CEO and co-founder Will Marshall says the changing geopolitical landscape coupled with advancements in AI are enabling countries to have a peripheral vision to, quote, understand threats in their neighborhood.

We feel like a planet. We're in the center of it. Let me explain why. We have 3,000 images for every point on the Earth's landmass, a wicked data set to analyze change over time. What matters in these cases, like I just mentioned this Iran case, is not just what has changed, but what's normal? What's the normal number of vehicles at those facilities?

And you can only know what's normal if you've got an archive. So AI is leveraging that deep archive. We're the only ones with that daily scan, and certainly the only ones that have been doing it also for the last eight years. So we have all these layers. That means that we have a wealth of data. In short, our data set is critical for training AI about the real world. So AI today is mainly about the text on the internet. AI tomorrow will also be able to understand the real world. Now Planet also has a partnership with NVIDIA. Satellite images have become powerful tools of information though. Last week, for example, Planet released public images of the damage to the Al-Yudid

Last week, for example, Planet released public images of the damage to the Al-Yudid U.S. military base in Qatar that Iran targeted after those American strikes on its nuclear sites. You can see those right here, before and after. And Marshall telling me that the contracting environment is changing. And it's not just changing in the U.S., but in Europe as well, as spending on defense and space across the continent ratchets higher. He says countries are moving with quote, a new clarity, speed and urgency to enhance their security

that he's quote, never seen anything like it in his life. So you can catch more of this interview and all of my manifest space interviews by scanning this QR code right here on your screen or downloading wherever you get your podcasts. Well, up next, a top asset manager on what next week's massive slate of earnings means for the market and how she's trading the two Mag-7 stocks that are set to report, Alphabet and Tesla. Plus, we will chew on what to expect from Domino's, Chipotle, and the rest of the restaurant stocks

when they report results as well. Stay with us. Welcome back to Overtime. Two energy stocks on the move today. Shares of SLB, it was one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 despite beating Wall Street's earnings estimates and revenue estimates, so both top and bottom lines. Now it's unclear why this stock is under pressure, but the company did mention on the earnings call

that it expects second half margins to be flat compared to the second quarter. Nonetheless, shares finishing down about 4 percent. Chevron though, that ended the day lower as well after completing its 53 billion dollar acquisition of Hess prevailing against Exxon Mobil in its dispute over offshore assets in Guyana. Now, here's what Chevron CEO Mike Worth told CNBC earlier today about why the deal is good for investors.

It strengthens long term cash flows for our company. It deepens our already deep resource position. We've had a very consistent track record of dividend increases 38 consecutive years where we've increased our dividend payout share repurchases 18 of the last 22 years record share repurchases the last two years This provides the cash flow that will continue to support that and we've got a very strong balance sheet We're gonna double a credit rating low net debt Well worth also saying that he anticipates some headcount reductions as a result of the deal though shares finishing down a little less than 1% Meantime, let's get you ready for a busy upcoming week. About 20 percent of the S&P 500 is reporting, including key economic indicators like D.R. Horton, Southwest and American Airlines, plus consumer read throughs from Domino's, Coca-Cola and Chipotle.

So let's bring in Barbara Duran to break it all down. She is BDA Capital Partners CIO and a senior portfolio manager. And Barb, it's great to have you back on. So I guess we'll just start with a big broad question. Your take on earnings season so far and how pivotal next week is. Well, I think next week is gonna be pivotal because of so many companies has just mentioned reporting. And my take is that there's a lot of room for a beat and raises here because when the tariffs were imposed,

the first initial big chunk of tariffs into April, a lot of companies pulled guidance or really reduced their guides because the uncertainty and now as it's turning out you know right now we're not seeing a lot of tariff impact it's showing up in some areas and whether it's travel or leisure people pulling back or some of the hard goods prices going up but it's really been not a big effect as yet and it and probably will be more to come later on. But so I think there's room, the earnings estimates are now at about under 5%,

and that's versus 13.6% in the first quarter. And if you remember, in the first quarter, we started out only estimating an increase of 6.6. So it was double that. So I think the potential there is for some nine to 10%. So I think it's gonna be a good quarterly earning season. But having said that, you know, valuation is high at 22 and a half times earnings.

We've had all these new highs this last week. And so it's a question of where do you go? So I think it's gonna be about stock picking. And I think it's gonna be in companies where you've got room for upside surprise in earnings and cashflow. Okay, I wanna get into what some of those names could be with you. But first, because we do start to get some of the big cap tech names next week,

whether it's Tesla or Alphabet, but also IBM, Intel. How much hinges on these names that have just been powering the numbers for the S&P more broadly this year? Well, you know, it's interesting. I think a lot does hinge on it. And you've seen, instance Alphabet you just mentioned reports next week. The stock concludes today is about

eight days in a row. So we could have phenomena like we saw with Netflix Netflix ran into the earnings report last night even though it was a good earnings report they beat numbers. On both in a revenue and EPS they had positive guidance analysts

over the street are raising price targets, yet the stock is down, was down dramatically today, because I think there were a lot of momentum players rushing into it. So we could see the same thing happening because this is where the plays are gonna be, and where we expect good earnings and good revenues.

But it's not exactly a secret at this point. Okay, so in light of all of this, what do you buy right now? Well, I think you have to wait for, like Netflix would be a case in point here. I think when you look at something like Alphabet, do you buy after it's run up so much? It's still not that expensive.

It's a 20 PE, but they have that existential question about search and paid advertising. It looks like it's gonna be good. And of course we've got the AWS, or not AWS, but their cloud computing, where they're gaining share. They're last in the race of three, but they're gaining share there. So a name like that you could cautiously add to, you know, or get into. IBM reports next week question. They're at their

historical high in terms of PE. And that's been because of obviously, they're a success in AI with consulting in their software, but a lot's in the stock and everything, I think, has to go well. So I think you can continue to add in these high flyers. But I think you look for special situations like in healthcare, maybe even United Healthcare down here. It's really gotten slammed. And I think you have to wait a little bit longer,

but it's a great company. They've got a lot to sort out. Certainly the policy direction at DC is not helpful. OK, some names for investors to consider. Barbara Duran, great to have you on. Have a good weekend. You too. Investors losing their appetite for Chipotle this year. The stock falling roughly 11 percent in 2025. Up next, what to expect from the company's earnings next week and if they will be enough to turn around the stock.

Welcome back. Let's get you set up with next week's trade today. It's another massive week of earnings. Verizon, Domino's, NXP Semi are set to report Monday. GM, Coca-Cola, Texas Instruments, Chubb and DR Horton are on tap Tuesday. AT&T, IBM, Alphabet, Chipotle, Tesla and Southwest are the highlights on Wednesday. Honeywell, American Airlines, Intel, Dow, and Blackstone will be on Thursday. And the week closes out with AutoNation.

Now, the economic front is a little bit lighter with existing home sales on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims, and new home sales on Thursday, and durable goods on Friday, and the Fed in a blackout period ahead of its meeting as well. Although, we will have some commentary from some Fed officials, although not tied to monetary policy. Let's dig in a little deeper though into what to expect from Chipotle and the other restaurant stocks that are reporting next week.

Kate Rogers is back. She has the details for us. Hi Kate. Hey Morgan. So broadly the backdrop here is interesting because consumers are showing some resistance in the restaurant sector as costs continue to outpace grocery costs at restaurants. The best performers year to date, Domino's, Papa John's and Wingstop. Those are all pandemic darlings along with Dutch pros up over 20% while the

names taking the biggest hit so far, sweet green, Kava and Jack in the box. So the key thing to watch for Chipotle and all the other names reporting number one performance of all income cohorts, but the low income consumer will be in focus. It's something that McDonald's and the broader fast food industry has been focused on and struggling with in some cases. Pricing power names like Chipotle and Starbucks have long had pricing power, but that dynamic has shifted in recent quarters as consumers are bristling a little bit more against higher prices when dining out across the board. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatright said last quarter, quote, saving money because of concerns around

the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers were reducing the frequency of restaurant visits in Q1. And interestingly enough, the casual dining names, they've been performing well with investors. They might be seen as better positioned from a price perspective for diners who may be getting more experience for their dollar in this environment. And a programming note here, Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright will join us on Wednesday

after earnings cross for a broadcast exclusive. So be sure to tune in for much more on all of this. Morgan, looking forward to that one. I am too. Kate Rogers, that was a great summation of what we should be watching for next week. And we'll see you more next week to break down all the numbers for us here on Overtime. Thank you Kate Rogers that was a great summation of what we should be watching for next week and we'll see you more next week to break down all the numbers for us here on overtime.

Thank you. Great. Thank you. All right, so we had a basically flat day for the major averages the SMP finishing fractionally lower after hitting an intraday high the nasdaq closing at a new record high we had a new record high every day this week for the nasdaq the other thing to keep an eye on this weekend, Japan's upper house elections are Sunday as we see trade talks progress here with the U.S. with Japan and obviously impact that could have on the bond market there too and globally the bond market. That does it for us here at Overtime.