Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Commvault CEO on Cyber Protection in AI Age; Top International Picks; Previewing Disney Earnings 11/12/25

Episode Date: November 12, 2025

The Dow notched its first close above 48,000 despite tech falling today. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick and Wealth Enhancement’s Ayako Yoshioka break down the market action. Cisco rises after reporting earnings. Our Leslie Picker on the record run for big banks. Commvault CEO Sanjay Mirchandani on protecting data as AI enhances cybersecurity threats. Fast Money trader Tim Seymour gives his top international picks. We close out with Needham’s Laura Martin previews tomorrow’s Disney earnings.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That bell marks the end of regulation Uber and Delta Airlines. Bringing the closing bell with the New York Stock Exchange. CEOs Darry Akashashashari and Ed Bastian. Patterson, UTI, doing the honors for the NASDAQ remotely from the premium basin. The Dow once again with a big gain is its first close above 48,000. The S&P 500 with its fourth straight day of gains, only a few points though. The NASDAQ, however, down for the fourth time in five sessions. And as money is rotating out of tech, these sectors rising today, health care, financials, materials, more on those sectors coming up for the proof of the rotation.

Every Mag 7 name is lower today except for Microsoft. Meta, Tesla, Alphabet, Amazon all down about 2%. And a big drop for oil as OPEC says oil supply for 2026 will meet demand, which means there won't be a shortage, as some were expected. Well, that's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Coming up, we are waiting for earnings from Cisco. The stock is up 25% this year on AI demand. Of course, it still hasn't taken out those all-time highs from early 2000. We've also got our eyes on Disney reporting tomorrow. The stock's basically flat this year.

It's in a dispute with YouTube TV. Lots of issues to discuss there. And the House is set to take up the bills that would end the government shutdown. It will take some time, but they are expected to pass. We're going to keep an eye on Washington throughout the hour as that process commences here. And for more on the market rotation that we're seeing today, let's get to Sima Modi at the New York Stock Exchange. Hi, Sima. Hey, Morgan's sentiment around artificial intelligence, big tech seems to be waning, and that played out in today's market, even with Anthropics announcement, investing in additional

$50 billion on data centers, all the major hyperscalers gave back gains as investors fret over valuations and the debt to fuel these investments. Meta announcing its breaking ground on his 30th data center, a $1 billion project in Wisconsin. But again, it was the non-tech sectors that led today's market higher, healthcare, banks, industrials. Take a look at Goldman Sachs, which was the biggest contributor to the Dow's triple-digit gains. And gold also rallying as the market increasingly eyes another rate cut in December. The big mover, though, was A&D, up another 7% on bullish remarks from CEO Lisa Sue and her strong growth projections. John and Morgan. Yeah, nine even by the end of the day. Seema, thank you. And now to the bond market,

following a 10-year auction today. Rick Santelli is in Chicago. Rick? Yeah, John, it wasn't a terrific auction. I gave it a C for demand. That was $42 billion. Tomorrow, we close out $125 billion of coupon supply with $25 billion, 30-year bonds. Of course, yesterday, Veterans Day, the bond market was closed, and as it came back, and you look at the 12-hour chart, you see that low yield there one Eastern, that was when the auction results it. Now, it moved up just a bit, but remember, open the chart up, should we close under 4.07, and we're there by a whisker right now, that would be a two-week low-yield close. Look at the dollar index. Now, this goes to the low that it made in September, and it just keeps climbing on a nice 45-degree angle, even though interest

rates have been a bit depressed of late, because they believe that the data to come after the government reopens is going to be very weak. But nonetheless, It was up a bit today and it reversed tire after yesterday's two-week low close. John, Morgan, back to you. Rick Santelli, thank you. Well, the rotation seemed to be in play in the markets again today. Value outperformed cheaper stocks on movement. Healthcare financials, those took the lead.

Is the rebalancing a good sign for the rally? Joining us now is Carson Group Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Dietrich, and Wealth Enhancement Group Senior Portfolio Manager Ayako Yoshioca, with $124.5 billion. in assets under management. It's great to have you both here. Ryan, I'm going to kick this off with you because we do have a Dow that's just closed above $48,000 for the first time. I know you've been a bowl for a while here. I assume that's going to continue for you. I am curious what you think of breath and what you think of this rotation, especially as the government shutdown is about

to end. Well, first off, thanks for me back, Morgan. Appreciate it. You know, today was the 1,615th, All time high ever for the Dow. So congrats to the bowls out there. You know, I love this conversation about market press because we've been here in nonstop for years. It's only seven stocks. It's only this, only that. We would push back against that. Just last week, if you peel back the onion, more stocks in the S&P 500 were above their 20-day moving average at the end of the week than we're at the start of the week. So far this week, we've seen more expansion above 20 days, more expansion above 50 days. Last week, seven sectors were higher. Eight sectors outperforming the S&P 500. We get it. these large names kind of swing things, but I think it's really hammers home why you want to

keep a diversified portfolio, why you don't want to just go all in on Mag 7. Trust me, we manage, we don't, what was, 100 something billion? We managed about 7 billion. So, you know, small peanuts, I guess. But with our $7 billion, we're looking at it like, you know, you want to have a globally diversified portfolio, last comment here. Look at what, look at what Germany did today. Germany's soaring. You have European financial banks hitting all-time highs. Those are not things you see if the sky's about the fall, like so many people keep telling. us all the time. And I want to get your thoughts on this market. The S&P finished basically flat here up 4.6850. We've been talking about valuations for quite some time and the fact that they

look stretched historically. How much is that injecting volatility here? And I guess just how important is that for investors as we look to the end of the year in 2026? Sure, Morgan, thanks again for having me. So, you know, when we look at markets, everybody knows it's a little expensive, right? it's trading at 23 times, forward earnings, but when you dissect this, you know, it's really the tech side that is the most expensive. And so when you look at, you know, tech as a sector, it's trading at 11 times price to sales, which is really expensive. And that sort of explains why we're seeing this broadening of the market. And, you know, there are other sectors that trade much cheaper, closer to one to three times, you know, whether it's financials or industrials or health care.

And I think that's why it really makes sense that we're seeing this broadening out in the market. I do want to mention that Cisco results are out. The stocks up just over 4%. We'll bring you those just as soon as we've gone through them. Ryan, back to that question about not exactly market breadth, but sort of the impact of the influence of these really huge tech stocks. What happens if they stall? Is there really anywhere in the U.S. markets that you can imagine hiding that won't be affected? Or do you have to go international?

Yeah, John, you know, clearly we know tech, a tech adjacent is about half the U.S. stock market, right? We all know that. So clearly, if it pulls back, you're going to have some issues. But that doesn't mean, you know, you can go overweight international, right? We've liked the Velt International for a while. As we just said, there's lots of parts of the market that are cheap. But I'll tell you this much. What gets me just on Friday, a New York op-ed piece says it's 1929 all over again, that Michigan consumer confidence.

People are more, apparently the consumer is more worried now than during the great financial crisis or a 100-year pandemic. Right. Expectations are so low. People get angry on the way up. Then they panic on just normal two or three percent, you know, volatility on the way down. To me, that's lowered expectations. And then you look what just happened this earning season. We have a doveish Fed coming. There's still reasons to think this bull market is far from over in our opinion, John. Well, let's get to those Cisco numbers that you were promised. Christina parts and nevelas has them. Christina. It's a beat across the board. So we'll start with a dollar flat adjusted EPS earnings per share that was stronger than anticipated on revenues of 14. $1.88 billion, also stronger than anticipated. We're talking about the Q2 EPS guidance. Keep in mind that this is, we're talking about the past Q1, so now this is the guidance for Q2. That range is higher

than what the street anticipated. The same thing for the Q2 revenue guidance. Same thing for the full year guidance. And this guide is stronger, much stronger despite the government shutdown. Cisco does have a lot of exposure to the federal government in terms of sales. They did say in their earnings report, there's a quote

from Chuck, the CEO, Chuck Robbins, who said that the widespread demand for their technologies playing a huge role, and they're seeing a lot of a multi-billion dollar campus refresh opportunity starting to ramp up because of all the aging networking gear that needs to be revamped. So all of this helping shares go up by three and a half percent, guys. Christina, thank you. Speaking of Chuck Robbins, don't miss the first on CNBC. Interview with him tomorrow, 9 a.m. on Squawk on the street. You guys own this stock, and it's just not. now reaching those high 70s levels from 25 years ago. What is the impact of this AI buildout

trend on Cisco? Is this a safer place than some of the other big tech names you own or no? Well, it's certainly trading at a cheaper valuation than many of the other tech names. It's trading around 18 times forward earnings. But it's elevated relative to its own history of closer to 14 times. That being said, it's benefiting. a lot from these sort of upgrades to the overall networking equipment that needs to happen because of AI and just the different workloads and the way that AI is going to be processed across public and private clouds. All right. Iya Yoshioca and Ryan Dietrich. Thank you both for joining us today with a mixed picture for the markets. Well, we've got breaking news on the Fed.

Steve Leesman has the details for us. Hi, Steve. Yeah, interesting comments here from Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who is a voter this year. She's saying it's likely appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for, quote, sometime. Monetary policy, she says, is mildly restrictive and she wants it there. Talks about financial conditions, usually meaning the stock market. She says they're a tailwind for economic growth and economic activity has been holding up quite well, she says. Additional monetary support risk slowing or stalling the return of inflation to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. There downside risk to employment, she says, but they have not increased since the summer,

and she's hesitant to ease further without evidence of a further weakening of the labor market, wants to assess the effects of the easing, the 50 basis points of easing that the Fed has done since September to find out whether or not it's prudent to go ahead. Prudent, she says, to ensure inflation is on track to 2% before making further adjustments. The importance here, guys, it looks like there is now a critical mass of officials. I don't know if it's a majority, but a critical mass of officials either outright opposing a rate cut or suggesting the Fed should go more slowly. It's unclear if it's half of the 12 voters that you need or six of them, but it's close. This contrasts with the market that before Colin spoke moments ago and her headlines came out, there was a 64% probability of a December rate cut.

It's now 61%. If the December inflation report comes out on time, that's a big if, it will be issued December 17th, and that's day two of the Fed's two-day meeting. So, guys, this is really interesting at this point. There is definitely a divide on the Fed. It's a substantial divide at this point where I would think you could have three, maybe even four dissents if they do cut. And there may be as many as five or six who oppose a cut at this point. We're going to have to watch and listen carefully and then get this data, hopefully. Hopefully it's coming out from the government to see if, indeed, either the labor market is holding up, as some say, or if the labor market is weakening substantially, or, of course, if inflation is under control. John?

All right. Steve, thank you. Yeah, not a lot of data coming to change their mind. Now to Washington, as the House begins the process to end the government shutdown. Emily Wilkins has the latest on what's happening. Emily. Hey, John, well, just a few minutes, lawmakers are going to be starting to head to the floor for, that will last until the early evening, but under all expectations is going to end with the government reopening. We've talked with a number of House Republicans, many of them to say that they are on board, that they plan to vote for this. Of course, a lot of Democrats are opposed, but as last time we did see a few across the aisle. And now that means tomorrow morning, the government is expected to begin to restart again, agencies that have been closed now for the last 43 days. That, of course, includes getting back pay to millions of federal workers who have not had,

that. I heard today from some congressional sources that at least staffers in the House expect to start getting those paychecks by November 18th. They're expecting similar timelines for other agencies. I also spoke today with Don Beyer. He is a Democrat from Virginia. Many of his lawmakers are those federal employees who have not been paid. Listen to what he told me about the response that he heard from many of his constituents. I know it's been hard. It's been remarkable. Emily, the number of federal employees who have asked us to stick it out, to stay tough, to keep fighting, despite the fact that they've missed a couple of Achecks. Byer and others are expected to vote against the measure to reopen the government

because it does not include an extension of those Affordable Care Act premium tax credits. Still, we're expecting to see a process vote in the next hour that will go forward. And then, of course, the final vote is expected some time around 7 o'clock, 8 o'clock this evening that will reopen the government. Guys? All right. Emily Wilkins, thank you. Florida earnings are out. Contessa Brewer has the numbers. Hi, Contessa. Hey there, Morgan. Yeah, Flutter just walloped earnings expectations with earnings of $1.64 per share.

Now, the street was expecting about half that, 84 cents. But look, revenues miss. $3.79 billion against expectations of $3.9 billion. EBITA beats, margins beat, international beats. But U.S. sportsbook revenue and eye gaming revenue, those are misses. U.S. revenue there. Let's look at Flutter lowering full year guidance on revenue and profit because of the third quarter performance. Those fan-friendly game outcomes cost the house. There are Illinois tax costs that they're factoring in. Here's the interesting one. It is investing in FanDuel predicts.

The big news also out in a separate release, it's launching its prediction platform in December with the CME group. Now, we knew about the tie up, but FanDuel says it's launching in December. It's going to offer sport trade. not on tribal lands, only in states where sports gambling isn't legal. So California, Texas, here you go. If a state legalizes sports betting, Fandall says it will then yank the markets on those sports. And interestingly, it's going to put its responsible gaming tools at work on the predictions platform as well. That stock right now, it looks like, is up 1.7%.

That's a little bit of a turnaround because it was just lower. Flutter and Draft King shares have been pressured here by the rise of Kalshian polymarket, Robin Hood, Crypto.com, offering those sports prediction trades. I just want to remind you guys, it's not a settled event yet. There are still cases pending in federal court. All right. Contessa Brewer, thank you. Well, coming out more on the market rotation as Goldman Sachs helps power the Dowd, new record highs.

We'll take a closer look at what's driving the financials. And Circle, taking another leg lower and its post-IPO drop. Why the Stable's coin stock has been anything but, well, stable. Shares down 12% today. That's next on overtime. Over time, Cisco shares still higher after results up better than 4% at the moment. After a beat there, we're going to continue to track that stock ahead of the conference call. Meantime, shares have circled down big on results.

It beat on earnings, but profit guidance. seems to be getting attention as Circle forecast higher costs. The stock was near $300 a share in late June a couple of weeks after going public, closing just under 87 today. Well, as the tech trade has started to stumble a bit, investors seem to be heading towards financials just today. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, all hit new highs. So what's behind the move? Let's bring in senior banking reporter Leslie Picker for more. Leslie, what is behind the move, especially as we're hearing more chatter about things like

capital requirements. Yeah, I mean, you look at those moves year to date. It's pretty astounding how well the banks have done this year. And they seem at least recently to be a beneficiary of some of the pressure in tech. According to B of A, ETF flow data tech had the biggest outflows last week while financials saw the biggest inflows. However, the four-week average actually shows the opposite of that trend. But among today's moves, Goldman Sachs is the standout up more than three percent. That firm garnered a slew of headlines today about its biggest ever fee haul, $110 billion for its role advising electronic arts on its $55 billion take private. Analysts estimate that Goldman will see a huge boost in advisory fees this year thanks to a

revival in M&A activity and its multitude of big mandates. That sentiment may also be giving Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan a bit of a boost today as well. City ending the day up more than 2% after reports said it got approval to sell its Russian consumer bank, something analysts Mike Mayo says would, quote, provide another data point of progress in dismantling almost a half century of non-US consumer expansion. That's a big piece of the firm's restructuring and simplification story. It's also been a reason why that in Goldman Sachs are the two best performers year-to-date. And then broadly across the rest of the financials, there's likely some relief that the shutdown appears to soon be over,

with the House, of course, set to vote tonight, guys. Yeah, and of course we know some Wall Street executives, including reportedly JP Morgan, CEO Jamie Diamond, are supposed to meet with President Trump tonight as well, so that'll be one to watch, potentially. Yes. The non-bank financials have not necessarily fared as well. No. Why?

And what does it take to get them into the action here? Some of it has to do with rates and kind of who is a bigger beneficiary. The whole private credit question was they were able to get a better spread in many cases when rates were a little bit higher rates coming down. There's some concern that could pressure the revenue generation potential for a lot of these firms, whereas on the banking system side, they're less affected by that. Their net interest income, which is the profitability metric for loanmaking is expected to see an upswing next year. And so people are largely seeing that as maybe a net positive as it brings more loan

demand back into the market. So also the universal banks have a bit more diversified businesses at this point in time. They've got the wealth management side. They've got the investment banking revival, which is, as you could see from those numbers from Goldman Sachs, in full upswing. We're expected to see a lot greater deal count and a lot higher volume this year for both M&A and IPOs, which is going to contribute to big bottom line gains at these banks. And so there is kind of a distinction to be made there. And then, of course, for a lot of the alternative asset managers that have big private equity businesses, they're unable to really exit those businesses still. So there's a lot of assets on their balance sheet that are just kind of sitting there

and aging, not meeting their budgets and their potential, and therefore they're not able to be sold or participate in IPO. So all of the, a lot of the capital markets activity we've seen is more on the strategic side, less on the sponsor side. Makes sense. Leslie Picker, thank you. Well, coming up, another day of tech underperformance on some concerns about AI growth, but AMD, a semi-stand-up up another 7, well, 9% today. What is that telling us about the state of the AI trade? And as we had to break, check out some of the stocks hitting all-time highs today. Eli Lilly, now with a $900 billion market cap, GM, IBM,

IBM rallying on a new quantum computing announcement, and retailer Ralph Lauren, all higher. Over time, we'll be right back. Welcome back. We're continuing to watch shares of Oracle. It's now down 10% in a week. Unwheres about the debt the company is accruing to fuel its AI growth. Oracle's five-year credit default swap volumes rose exponentially in the past week,

and the cost to buy insurance also jumped to a two-year high and concerns that its aggressive debt financing will put more pressure on its credit rating. You can see those shares ended, I guess, they're up 6% today. So, yeah, John. Thank you. Well, let's bring in senior markets commentator Mike Santoli, speaking to Oracle. He's taking a look at software stocks as the rotation into hardware keeps on going. Mike?

Yeah, John, obviously not a new story, but it brings the software ETF, the IGV, into a pretty interesting spot. I mean, 50% over two years, it's not bad. It's not a broken chart, but it has sort of checked back to this level here. It was around 108 at the peak in late 2024. So obviously, it's not keeping pace with semis. Semis have outperformed over this period by about 30 percentage points. And software would look even tougher, if not for Palantir, which has been up so much that it's now almost a 10% weighting in this ETF, even though the business itself is much smaller than some other components here.

So obviously, a little bit of doubt being priced into software in terms of the durability of those franchises and revenue streams. Now, take a look at another stark illustration of this, which is the relative market caps of AMD versus Salesforce. You see, Salesforce obviously races ahead, gets above a quarter of a trillion dollars way before AMD does, and then it's just sort of no contest. Now, obviously, AMD getting repriced radically because it's able to say the addressable market that they're now involved with is so vastly bigger than they thought was just before. Not the case with Salesforce. Also for a chronically expensive stock from, you know, the decade or two after its IPO, Salesforce is now trading at a discount to the S&P 500, showing that there is a little bit of cost.

about extrapolating those cash flows well into the future for that business, John. Mike, I would argue that some of the most influential companies in software are not software companies. I'm thinking about Apple, Google, Amazon, Open AI's a software company, but they're not public. That makes this software versus hardware situation probably look different than it might have a couple decades ago, no? It's very true. So what we're really talking about when we measure it this way is, you know, application software plus the sort of enterprise subscription based products like a sales force like a service now so that is a good distinction and i do think that's where the market is moving its bats i mean you somebody could have mentioned invidia in there of course right i mean they're

trying to build the whole ecosystem around the the processing power so i get that um so it's nobody saying software's going obsolete it's much more about the business models and the brands that are coming under some questioning all right mike sancholy thank you we'll see a little bit later this hour. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News Update with Bertha Coombs. Hi, Bertha. Hi, Morgan. Cleveland Guardian's pitcher Luis Ortiz pleaded not guilty today in federal court to charges that he and teammate Emmanuel Classet took bribes to help gamblers win bets on pitches that they threw. He was released on $500,000 bond and given an ankle monitor. Class A is due in court tomorrow. The case has already prompted Major League Baseball and

sportsbook to cap certain bets on individual pitches and ban them from parley's. Capitol Hill staffers now know when they'll receive back pay from the government shutdown. In a notice sent to staff today, people were told they should have their back pay by November 18th or 19th. Provisions to secure back pay and to reverse recent reductions in force during the shutdown were part of the Senate agreement to end the shutdown. And the Washington Post reports today on a secret program by the CIA to manipulate Afghanistan's lucrative poppy crop. The CIA reportedly spent a decade dropping modified seeds on those fields to create poppy plants that did not have the chemicals needed to be refined into heroin.

A CIA spokesperson declined a comment on the program, so it's unclear whether it worked by the fascinating concept, John. Bertha, thank you. Well, coming up on overtime, AI is all about data. That should be great for the cybersecurity firms trying to protect all that data. We'll talk to the CEO of Comvall. Stock down 25% in the month. And we're continuing to monitor the proceedings on Capitol Hill.

As the House moves towards ending the government shutdown after a record of 42 days, stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. We once against our rotation. out of tech. The Dow, more than 300 points, closing at a record high, first close of a 48,000. The NASDAQ lower by a quarter of a percent. Lots of names on the move in overtime. Let's start with the biggest name, Cisco. Those shares are now up 6 percent. Small beats on earnings and revenue, second quarter guidance on both of those numbers, also above expectations. But if we set our sites now on Webtoon, it's a different story. That stocks down about 19

percent. Posted a profit when a loss was expected, but revenue came up short of expectations. Fourth quarter sales guidance was also light of consensus. This stock soared when it signed a deal with Disney to make comics using its characters, along with its earnings, Webtoon announcing a similar deal with Warner Brothers. But Ibata also lower after hours, even though it posted a profit when analysts were expecting a break-even quarter. The spotlight may be on its fourth quarter revenue guidance, though. 80 to $85 million forecast versus streets view. of 84. Those shares are down 18%. Firefly Aerospace, also moving, really lifting off here, up 19%. The stock went public in August. We're not comparing its earnings to estimates,

but revenue did beat, and its forecast an even bigger beat for full year revenue. Yeah, quite a boost there. Well, Data Resilience Company, Combald, unveiling a new platform to deploy AI across its cybersecurity products at its Shift Conference in New York today. Now that comes to the stock, struggled after missing earnings expectations a couple weeks ago. Joining me now on a CNBC exclusive, ComValt CEO, Sanjay Merchantani. Sanjay, I want to talk to you about your news today and your outlook for 26, but first, we haven't spoken on air since earnings. So tell us about this shift in term duration, what's happening beneath the surface with

your subscription revenues. Hey, John. Yeah, we haven't spoken in a few weeks. But, you know, what is happening, essentially, is that we had a bit of a bit of a bit of of a mix shift between our term license or software and our SaaS business. And we had a few customers that decided to accelerate their SaaS deployment before software, reduced the term on the software, and that had an implication on the bottom line, a little implication on the bottom line because the margins on SaaS are a little different than software. That was the net of it.

It was a great quarter. It was a great quarter. It was, we had the maximum, the large net new ARR in our history at $47 million. We delivered a billion dollars of ARR as a company two quarters before we said we would. The same for our SaaS at 330 million. Revenues grew healthy double digits. So across the board, it was a good quarter. We had a little bit of a mix shift that dropped to the bottom line. And that's what it was.

So now let's talk about this unity platform. You guys are all about resilience, and there are a number of competitors in this space, as data is so important. And right now, a lot of customers are storing data across so many different places in the public cloud, private clouds, on-premise, et cetera. What does Unity do? Why is it strategically important for you?

You know, we are in the resilience business, and two years ago here at Shift in New York, we launched basically, we changed the game from data protection to cyber resilience. Now, we've taken everything we've learned with cyber resilience, and in the past year,

the onset of AI and generative AI and agentic AI has been nothing short of phenomenal. And as customers start embracing AI into their daily capabilities, we've enhanced the platform. We built it ground up, actually, for the AI era. And what that really means is, if I had oversimplify it, we've brought together security, identity, and recovery at scale for our companies. With AI systems, you have to be in front of the problem, not when there is an issue. And so, yeah. So how does that drive improved, even strategic position for you? Do you see yourself gaining share?

Does it put you as a company that's already established with a lot of customers at an advantage versus those who are trying to push in? Absolutely. We think that over time, it's still in the early innings of enterprise AI being embraced and built, we think this will be a tailwind. And a lot of our customers that we've spoken to here, partners we've spoken to here, industry folks, we've spoken to absolutely think we're onto something. This platform, I believe, will make us, you know, it's absolutely future-proof because there's nothing else like it in the market. And we've wired AI under our brand,

metallic AI, right into the product to do some incredible recovery capabilities, you know, proactive stuff within the product. It's really, it's a game change. Looking forward to seeing how that plays out in the marketplace. Sanjay Merchandani, CEO of ComValt. Thanks for joining us here on overtime. Thanks. Well, up next, Mike Santoli looks at what recent gains in the Commodity Index could mean for global growth and your investments.

Plus, Disney shares of more than 5% this week ahead of earnings tomorrow morning. We're going to discuss whether there's more room to run for this stock or if this could be a sell-the-news event. That's coming up later on overtime. Welcome back. There's been a slow and steady uptrend in some parts of the commodity complex recently. Could that mean that we're about to see a global re-acceleration of growth? Let's bring in Cedar Markets commentator Mike Santoli for a closer luck. Hi, Mike. Yeah, Morgan, you're now positive on the broad Goldman Sachs Commodity Index on a year-to-day basis after some gut checks,

some interest among chart watchers, too, from this trend of kind of a higher, lows and higher highs, this sort of stealth uptrend. By the way, this is also in the biggest component, crude oil has been down significantly year to date. So the rest of the components have definitely been firming up there. Whether it's, you know, some of its tariff related soybeans, aluminum, things like that. But otherwise, global growth seems like perhaps it's firming. Take a look at what investors' sentiment toward commodities looks like, though. This is from Ned Davis Research. You have a daily sentiment composite for all asset classes. And it's looking like excessive pessimism. In fact, near the lows of the last couple of

years that suggests on a contrarian basis. Maybe there is further upside to commodities. That is what followed those previous declines of previous extreme lows in this sentiment measure, Morgan. The fact that we have seen crude in a downtrend, or I guess you could say rangebound, maybe we can make the argument here looking at the technicals and it hasn't participated in this rally. What does that signal about this global economic story or is it doing its own thing separate because of production increases? It's feeling like it's much more just, telling us it's an oversupplied market. You know, obviously very long term, the, you know, petroleum intensity of the global economy is declining at the margin. So I do think you have

supply-driven issues there. There's now a restructuring of the price structure where, you know, near-term contracts are cheaper than expensive ones. It's in contango. Again, that does mean heavy supply, so maybe not necessarily a call on weak global growth. All right. Mike Santoli, Thank you. Well, Gobind Sachs predicting U.S. equities will underperform global equities over the next decade. Up next, Fast Money's Tim Seymour on where he sees the biggest international investing opportunities. See right back. Welcome back to overtime.

Bill Holdings shares soaring 11.5% today on a report, the small and medium business fintech company is exploring strategic alternatives, including a possible sale as it faces pressure from a pair of activist investors, Starboard, and Elliott Investment Management. I spoke with Bill Holdings, founder and CEO Renee LaSert, two weeks ago, and asked them about the impact of activists in the stock. From starting a company, I've always valued any investor that came into the company, right? Because they have an opinion, perspective, expertise.

And so we worked hard with Starboard in particular and have a very strong rapport with Peter to understand kind of, how the outside in, you know, was on bill. And it wasn't different than how we were thinking about it, but it was maybe more focused, right? And that's actually good. Even with today's big gains, stocks still down roughly 40 percent this year. Well, international stocks are outperforming the U.S. this year, and Goldman Sachs is predicting that trend will last over the next decade. If Goldman is right, what areas of the globe should investors be eyeing? Well, with us now is Seymour Asset Management, CIO and CNBC contributor, Tim Seymour.

Tim. It's great to have you back. Great to be here. Thanks. Okay. We're coming up. We're close to coming up on a year of you staking your claim on Miga. So make international great again. Yeah, absolutely. Why wouldn't you? Yeah. It's been a good call this year. What do you think of it now? I think the year over year returns for international people know have been outperforming. A lot of that was really part of the year when the dollar was underperforming. But I think what's impressive is how international markets have continued to rally. Stock picking globally makes as much sense as it does here. I think investors are underweight around the world.

There's an argument that some of these global markets, some of these European markets, yes, are safe havens. And so I run an ETF IDBO where we're not only targeting companies that are growing their payout levels and high-disp, but best debris, bulletproof balance sheets, companies, though, that are really right in the middle of the same themes that investors want here, whether it's semiconductors. At Taiwan semi is one of our largest positions. Or you're talking about AI, ASML, data centers, RWE in Germany today, talking about significant buildout and capacity and just what's going on some of the power themes, gold miners, nuclear. So you can get the

same exposure to some of these exciting trades around the world in some of the biggest companies in the world that a lot of investors really don't follow or don't have enough exposure to. Okay. I mean, it seems to me the other macro factor has been that you have had a lot of central banks banks that have been cutting. So you've had monetary stimulus this year. And the Fed is sort of almost playing catch up to that now, although you could argue whether the last cut was a hawkish one or not. And you have had, to your point, some fiscal stimulus when you look to Europe in places like Germany and what that's sent to defense contractors. And what we heard out of Japan, so Takeichi, the sense is that there will be some deficit spending. Around the world, there's an industrial

push to rearm, to build out capacity, to do a lot of the same things that are going on here. One of the arguments that people think sounds kind of crazy is I actually think Europe is deregulating faster than the United States. Who needed to deregulate faster than the United States? It was Europe. And I think European Money Center banks have tremendous exposure to also capital markets around the world, not only where U.S. banks maybe getting shut out a little bit more, but again, best-abreed companies with balance sheets that I think are as good as U.S. Money Center banks paying higher divs that are cheaper. So some of these same themes that investors love here, again, I think it is about deficit spending. I do think it is onshoreing. I do think there are, you know, there are national champion banks across Europe and across Japan. And they're not, you know, they're not public companies. I mean, they're not nationalized companies. They really are domestic companies.

Yeah. I mean, we've got China Singles Day this week. We've also had Chinese tech stocks going through their own earnings processes while your takeaway. Yeah, China Tech reporting really over the next few weeks. We love Alibaba. Again, one of the largest positions in the book. It's a case of where at 18 times forward, including 30% of the market cap and cash, it's absolutely value territory. But between Ali Cloud, some of the same kind of AI and data center exposure. Tencent to me is meta meets Google of China. In other words, I think there's a lot going on there, not only in the social media side, but in terms of where they are in some of the incubator and some of the private equity kind of stuff that they hold, I think. 10 cents very interesting. So we like China Tech. We're opportunistic. I don't know that you have to own everything in China. And I think it's clearly over the last four or five years, there have been times you just don't want to own China. I think you want to buy the national champion tech companies in China. At least those two make a lot of sense to us. Okay. Tim Seymour. Thank you. Thanks, Morgan. Great to see you. A little trip around the world there.

And now Disney has been a dud this year versus the rest of the Dow significantly underperforming The Blue Chip Index, if it were a game, they'd be behind 5 to 13. So up next, a top analyst on how you should trade the media and entertainment giant ahead of its earnings tomorrow. And we are keeping a close eye on the House floor where voting to reopen the government continues. I'm going to bring you any new developments as soon as they happen. Over time, we'll be right back. Well, let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. could be set to reopen following the ongoing vote in the House, but even if it does,

it'll be another day of missed economic data. Investors will have to wait a bit longer for the latest consumer price index and for weekly jobless claims. And on the earnings front, Disney is the big name set to report before the bell. But we will also get results from Burberry, 10 cent JD.com. Right here on overtime, we're going to break down numbers from applied materials. And now let's find out what to watch for in those Disney numbers tomorrow morning. Joining us now is Laura Martin. She's Needham's Senior Internet and Media Analyst has a buy rating on a $125 price target. Laura, good to see you. I think it's been three and a half years since Disney last saw 125 and it was on the way down. So what's it going to take

to get it comfortably above that level? It's going to take moderating losses at linear networks. It's going to take really strong experiences or let's call it Parks growth. And we really want to see good numbers out of this ESPN flagship launch, that it's not cannibalizing other, that it's helping drive the bundle and direct-to-consumer revenue. Those are the three things we need to see. Do you think they should ditch ABC? I do. I do, mostly because I'd rather not be regulated by the FCC under the current administration. But if I wait three years, I assume the current administration would be out of the White House, according to the Constitution. So then it's probably okay if they own ABC again. And so is it worth factoring ABC in to what Disney has to do

for the foreseeable future then? And then how do you weigh the benefits versus drawbacks of these linear networks? Right. So I would say the only thing that's really working in linear networks is sports and ESPN is the anchor tenant in sports with some of the best rights for the next decade. So I sort of think Disney's holding together the linear bundle, frankly. Broadcast is fantastic because it's over the air. The leagues, what we've seen with the sports leagues is they really, really want reach, which you require a broadcaster like ABC, and then they really want money. And the money tends to come more from Google or from Amazon who sort of have money to burn. So the leagues are doing these sort of barbell deals where they give certain rights to drive

awareness to ABC, CBS, and NBC. And then they charge a fortune to the big, like Apple also, to the big streamers to try to get money back. So they have this. And Disney fits in both of those. Disney has cable networks and it has a broadcaster. So it has like two of the three pieces and that benefits. That benefits Disney as a bidder. How important are theme parks and resilient, if not growing, consumer spending at those right now? Right. So the thing, importance of theme parks is round numbers theme parks will do about two billion dollars of operating income in the quarter which sort of dwarfs the other two segments combined so right now really the heavy lifting on profitability and free cash flow is coming out of the theme parks what they

call experiences um succession we continue to talk about it how important is it here is there any reason to think we're going to get any kind of update now so good question they've said that they're going to announce the successor in the first quarter of 26th okay, well, Disney's fiscal year is, one just ended, September. So was it the first quarter of the fiscal year, or was it the first quarter of the calendar year where they're going to make an announcement? I'm sort of assuming it's the first calendar quarter.

Anyway, right now the frontrunner is the Parks guy, which is what we did last time. So it feels like if we do it again, have we learned anything? And is Bob Iger going to be back in two years? I don't know. But we're waiting for probably the first calendar quarter to get an announcement from the board about who they've pegged is Bob Iger's succession.

He can't seem to go into the sunset, it seems. I'm worried about Toy Story 5. Should I be, I mean, it seems like they had a nice bow on it, but they can't help themselves going back to the well. So, you know, Pixar really, really doesn't like sequels, but the problem is when you're spending $100 or $200 million on a film, it is smart from a business point of view to have a built-in audience that will come to Toy Story no matter what, because it limits your risk compared to starting from scratch and something somebody's never heard of. So I think Toy Story 5 will be fantastic, and I think it will have a built-in demand curve that will get people into theaters, even if it isn't fantastic. It will just be then mediocre for a Pixar film,

which would be fantastic compared to any of the studios' results. All right. Laura Martin, thank you. We'll be watching Disney, bright and early tomorrow morning. With those shares up 1.5% today. And a mixed picture for the major averages today, but rotation, really the theme here as we saw things like financials and health care kick into high gear. For sure. Watching Disney in the morning, but watching Cisco right now, it's up 7%, which I think is near the highs of the overtime session. Yeah, and of course we know that is a read on Enterprise Tech. That does it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts now.