Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Earnings Parade Rolls On 5/7/26

Episode Date: May 7, 2026

Markets power through a heavy earnings slate. Charles Kantor of Neuberger highlights a sharp pickup in earnings growth and explain what it means for valuations and market leadership. Big names report across sectors. Coinbase, Airbnb, CoreWeave, DraftKings, Expedia, Gilead and Lyft all deliver results that shape sentiment across crypto, travel, tech and biotech. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins reacts to earnings and discuss the outlook for sports betting and consumer demand. John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors breaks down the technical picture and explains what the charts are signaling as markets digest the latest moves. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to closing bell overtime. We're live from studio be at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Melissa Lee, along with Mike Santoli. Sox sliding across the board today. The Dow losing about 300 points. The S&P 500 down a third of a percent. The NASAC near the flat line. Russell 2000, the biggest loser, more in the market straight ahead. But it's going to be another big hour of earnings. Among the names we are watching, Expedia, Corweave, Airbnb, Lyft, and Coinbase. We'll also hear from Draft Kings, and we'll talk to the company's CEO once those results come out. breather day. Some interesting currents underneath, though. Exactly. We went into this with everybody pointing to semiconductor conductors being mega overbought, NASDAQ 102, a little bit of extremes and short-term sentiment. Normally on a day like that when the leading edge of tech is having a pullback, the Dow would be the outperformer.

You can't do that now because Caterpillar was down 3.5%. It's an AI stock. And therefore, the Dow was the underperformer. So a lot of that happening, I think also the outer edge of the AI trade. like the AI power ETF was down 4%. Bloom Energy down 10%. So it shows you that we're turning the dial down just a little bit. I don't think it changes the trend.

Two weeks ago, we had a two-day 7% shakeout in semis, and they went right back up. Within this, though, within this sort of rotation away from the hot pockets, we did see a little bit of the catch-up trade showing some signs of life. We had the media continuing its run. We also had Microsoft catching bid. I mean, the broader software sector was strong, but Microsoft in particular was strong.

And Apple, hitting a new. today, even though it backed off. It qualifies somewhat as relative defense. And in fact, without the moves in Nvidia and Microsoft, the S&P is probably down twice as much as it was. So, you know, the heavyweights did their job on a day when the vast majority of stocks were lower. Yep. The split between chips and software stocks continuing. But today it is software taking the lead, as we mentioned.

Sima Modi's got all the details, Seema. Yeah, it's been some time, Melissa, software staging a comeback fueled by shares of Datadog, which just witnessed its biggest one-day pop since going public back in. in 2020, following the cloud infrastructure companies' strong beat and guidance, CEO Olivier Pommel, also revealing two new hyperscalor customers, which won investor praise. TD securities analysts there calling it a must-own stock. Now, results, easing fears around customers like Open AI and Anthropic one day seeking to own the data infrastructure space. We saw names like Snowflake and MongoDB also rally in sympathy. Cybersecurity, also staging a nice rebound as well, following

upbeat earnings from Fortinet, the company also highlighting that customers are paying up for more expensive systems that manage cybersecurity. But it was a different story for Fastly, the infrastructure company, which fell nearly 40% following earnings that showed softer delivery volumes. That stock still up about 90% a year today, but clearly a big loser in today's trade. And as you guys mentioned, Chips seeing its first down day since Monday, though, Invidia pulling out in the green memory, one area of weakness, Micron Sandisk in Western Digital, giving back some of their gains. Guys, back to you. All right, Tima, thank you.

Oil prices turning higher this afternoon after an initial drop earlier this morning on hopes for peace talks. Pippa Stevens following the latest moves for our TIPA. Hey, Mike, WTI swinging nearly $8 from low to high as headlines continue to drive this market. Now, the early afternoon pushed into positive territory coming as the journal reported, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on U.S. military access to bases in the region, which could allow the U.S. to resume Project Freedom. Now, Mazuho's Bob Yeager saying that can be viewed as escalatory since it increases the possibility of a confrontation given Iran has voiced opposition to Project Freedom.

He added shorts started covering earlier in the day, which is why prices had started to move higher. Now, the price for dated Brent has also come down and last at around $101 per barrel, according to S&P Global Energy. This is oil for delivery over the next 10 to 30 days. Earlier in the war, we saw the premium for dated versus Front Month hit records as refiners scrambled to secure barrels. That oil that was bought around records is being delivered to Asia now, which could be alleviating some of the pricing pressure. The U.S. is also exporting a lot more now, which could be putting some downward pressure on Brent as well. Melissa? Pippa, thanks, Pippa Stevens.

Treasury yields meantime also climbing throughout the day. Rick Santelli joins us from Chicago with that, Rick. Yes, we continue to see not only our market shadow. but as you'll see in a moment, pretty much all the major sovereigns. Look at tenure, look at June crude futures. They are definitely moving in the same pattern. And if we now add in tenure, the booned in the EU and the guilt in the UK were all on the same wavelength. And the reason that's so important is that there isn't any necessarily unique feature in any of the given markets. It really is about energy and oil and the aftermath of what it may leave in its wake,

this conflict is over. And I do want to point out that tomorrow obviously is a big April job job jobs report. And last month we had some surprising strength. 178,000 jobs non-farm, best since DISA 24, and manufacturing of 15K, the best since Nova of 23 and a strong ADP. You definitely want to tune in tomorrow because it looks like the slowness in labor market was not necessarily going to be a long-term issue as we've been finding out. Mike, back to you.

Yeah, for sure. Some of those forecasts coming up for that number tomorrow, Rick. Thank you very much. Airbnb earnings are out. McKenzie Seagalas has the numbers, Mac. Mike, it is a mixed print for Airbnb. Those shares more than 5% lower and extended trading. EPS coming in light, 26 cents against the street estimate of 29 cents. That includes a tax-related hit from the big beautiful bill. Revenue is a beat at $2.68 billion versus the $2.62 billion expected. and Airbnb raising its full year revenue growth outlook to the low to mid-teens above the 12% that the street was modeling. The company guiding to Q2 revenue of $3.54 billion to $3.6 billion versus the $3.46 billion estimate, citing World Cup demand already building.

Now, the other key metric here is gross booking value. That came in ahead of estimates at $29.2 billion. On profitability, it is a beat on both adjusted EBITA at $500. and 19 million and margin at 19%. The company flagging some macro pressure, though, with Mid-East conflict-related cancellations weighing on Europe and A-PAC and higher gas prices, pushing some travelers away from long-haul trips towards shorter, cheaper, routes, shares, down only around 2.5% now, so pairing those losses, guys.

All right, Mack, thanks, Mackenzie Sagalos. Expedia earnings are out as well. Contessa Brewer has those numbers. Contessa. Hey there, Melissa. We've got a beat here on the top and bottom lines for Expedia. earnings per share come in at $1.96 adjusted. That's better than what the street was expecting at $1.38. and revenues also beat at $3.43 billion.

The street was expecting $3.34 billion. Total bookings grew in the quarter, 13%. But look, the CEO is out saying, yes, we had disruptions because of what's happening in the Middle East. This was largely expected. We knew that tourism has just been decimated because of the conflict with Iran. She says that some of that is showing up in Europe.

We've seen that with some of the cruise companies as well. The company is reaffirming full-year. guidance here and has repurched 700 million shares. But look at that. The shares stock price down more than 4% in extended trading. Mike? All right, Contessa, thank you. We also have Lyft earnings out and McKinsey Scholar's back without those numbers, Mac. So Mike, lift shares moving around 2.5% higher after hours on a mixed Q1 print. It's a miss on the bottom line. EPS coming in at 4 cents versus the street estimate of 6 cents. Revenue did come in slightly ahead of the street at 1.6 billion. Gross bookings also a beat at 4.95 billion versus the 4.91 billion expected. Bigger issue

is demand. Active riders came in light at 28.3 million. That's down sequentially from Q4. Rides also missed expectations at 236.9 million. Rides were still up 8% from a year ago, but this is the second quarterly decline in a row. Profitability looked a little bit better. Adjusted E, but I came in just above the street at $133 million, with margin also slightly ahead of estimates, and Q2 guidance was mostly constructive. Gross bookings expected between $5.3 and $5.43 billion with adjusted EBITA between $160 million and $180 million. Those shares only up around 1% now. Guys? All right, Mack, thank you very much. All tech, particularly the semis and memory, have been a big

driver of the recent market rally. Those two sectors have been pushed to new highs as Kappex spending from hyperscalers, balloons. So can this market keep momentum if KAPEX spending slows and how to think about it in general. Joining us now is Newberger-Berman portfolio manager, Charles Cantor. Good to see you, Charles. Thanks for having me, Mike. Kind of tough to diversify away from this theme, right?

I mean, maybe 50% of the S&P is in one way or another, you know, AI-driven, big percentage of earnings growth, of GDP growth even. So is that a huge opportunity? Is it a danger? Is it already priced? It's hard to know. I think. I think it comes down to how long will the CAPEX cycle last, and ultimately, it'll come down to the economics of the capital deployed. And I think increasingly people are getting comfortable

that token usage, which is a measurement of consumption at enterprises, including a new burger, is exploding, going vertical. And if a hyperscalist can sell those tokens at a reasonable gross margin, the debate around CAPEX isn't a debate around I'm just putting money in the ground. To put money in the ground, I'm putting money in the ground to support my business, you know, at high rates of return, unreasonably high rates of return on capital. It's no doubt a driver in the economy. And I think a little bit what gets missed is this frenzy around AI would be more frenzied, if not for the natural constraints in our economy, whether that be power, whether that be

labor, whether that be real estate, whether that be chips, whether that be memory. And so it does feel frenzied. And then ultimately, as you go through the different businesses and business models, I think it comes down to, you know, do you trust the management teams to deploy capital well on your behalf? And I think to some degree, you know, Amazon is a fascinating case study for us. They went through a massive CAPEX cycle over the last 10 years to build out AWS, that was, I think, around 300 billion over 10 years that, by our estimate, produced, you know, close to 20% returns on capital. Now they're going after $600 billion of capital in five years. And again, by estimation, you're going to get, you know, mid-teen type,

low-to-mid-teen types of return on capital. People are like, oh my gosh, that's lower than the law cycle. It's well above their cost of capital on a lot more capital. And, if they can support their customers and sell tokens at a reasonable gross margin, it's going to produce a lot of profitability, but it's going to be weighted to two years, three, four, and five. And there are a lot of questions around that initial, the other CAPEX has been, that they went on before when they were building out logistics. Charles would say right there, Corey Vernings are asked, speaking of CAPEX, Christina Parks and Elvis has those numbers.

Christina. Yeah, that company did post a gap loss of $1.40, but we're not going to compare because they don't have non-gap numbers. Revenue, though, was a beat a little bit over $2 billion. Keep in mind, this is a company that is a cloud provider that rents out computing power to many companies like Jane Street and Hypercalers. They did say that they posted $100 billion in backlog, which was the strongest ever for new customer bookings. They also said that they have about one gigawatts of active power, and it's going to hit 8 gigawatts by 2030. That was the only guidance that we received, all the other forward guidance for the full year.

and Q2 will come on the earnings call in regards to just the non-gap operating margin. It came in at 1%, so just a little bit shy of what the street was anticipating, and then the adjusted EBITA came in line. So I guess the strong backlog initially helped shares, but now shares are down about 1%. Guys? All right, Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nevelace. So, Charles, in terms of deciding who is going to get the best return,

I mean, the stock market is telling us that they believe, that an Amazon will get a good return, that an alphabet will get a good return, but a meta will not, for instance, anymore. But that debate changes so quickly. It does. It wasn't six, seven, eight months ago where meta was going to be the winner and Google was going to be the loser. And now Google, you know, now Google has over 700, you know, multi-active users on both their consumer-facing retail platforms and on their enterprise businesses. So I think we should be careful about, you know, judging who's a winner versus lose on the short term. I think they're going to be multiple players. There's no doubt. I think there's enough for all of them to make a reasonable economic

return. In the shorter term, those that can grow faster with higher returns, we'll get better valuations of those that don't. And these companies are blessed with just an immense amount of cash flow. And so they, yes, they're raising debt, but their leverage ratios are all north of one when you throw it all in together. It's fascinating to see how the market is so aggressively valuing the hardware and even the lower value added kind of commodity scarcity play in memory and everything else. What does that tell you about whether, in fact, we have multiple years where the returns are going to skew toward those guys as opposed to maybe the operators of these platforms

or anyone else? I think the memory conversation is fascinating because it forces you to think through the market and to think through our business models changing. You can't stand up a data, an AI facility without memory. And the memory players that used to just take price are now reevaluating their position in the ecosystem through the lens of negotiating much longer term agreements. And so some of the companies you mentioned, Sandus, Micron and others are now entering into three to of your contracts that have actual financial teeth to that. And then it comes to us, the investor, to say, well, wait a minute, a business that had no

pricing power and really bad returns on capital, has their business model evolved to a point where there's more certainty in their cash flows with higher returns. And so we're scared to say it's different this time, but I think the market is moving so quickly that it forces one to re-underwrite kind of the nature of the supply demand. equation and how businesses and leadership are evolving to today's times. It almost sounds like, well, we just showed the Sibo in Chicago, marking the end of regular options trading there, ringing the bell there. Charles, it almost sounds like you have to just hold your nose and believe. I mean, the fact that the story changes so drastically

in the span of, you know, eight months, I mean, if you if you went back 10 months, that memory story didn't exist. That re-rating narrative didn't exist. That re-rating narrative didn't exist. this and all of a sudden, it's taken investors by whole. I mean, we just don't know enough about this whole thing. You've got to challenge yourself to think differently. And I think for a lot of us, the memory one is yet another debate around have these business models changed enough or not. But there's certain things you have to underwrite in this environment. And one around AI, I think is kind of simple. Do you believe AI will, expand curiosity and imagination. If you believe that, I think in our environment, we're going to be just

fine. You've got to believe that over time you trust the people allocating the capital and the returns will be there. And it's uncomfortable because there's a lot of creative destruction taking place as we go through this. And business models change. When Amazon announced that they were entering Main Street, for example, immediately anything attached to Main Street was assumed to be dead. And yes, if you built your business model around convenience, as defined by Mike being able to go to the store within a five-minute car ride, and that's all you had, you were at a tremendous disadvantage. And so there will be winners and losers, and we all scared, are we part of the winning side of that, or the losing side of it, just like labor would be worried about that, just like capital providers

would be worried about it. But it takes time. I think it's faster this time. The interesting thing about again, back to the commerce conversation around convenience is here we are, 25 years later after Amazon announced that every Main Street would disappear, of all commerce that is tracked, only 20% of it happens online. So 80% of it still happens in that brick and mortar thing that you thought would go away. Now, that thing's got more imaginative. It's got to be different. It's got to use digital. It's got to give you a reason to go to the store. But in a creative, destructive type of economy that we operate in, I'm blessed to be in this one. Charles, good to see you.

Thank you for joining us. Thanks. Coinbase earnings are out. Let's get to Tanaia McKeel. She's got the numbers. Tenaia. Hey, guys. Coinbase reporting earnings per share, sorry, a loss per share of $1.49 versus street expectations of $27 per share in profit.

Sorry. And then revenue, $1.4 billion versus $1.5. billion expected. So in line, I do want to mention that because of the volatile nature of crypto trading, it's not unusual to see this earnings loss number be a little bit distorted or see big discrepancies between the reported number and the estimates. Investors, obviously, bracing for a cool down here, given the price lump that we saw in crypto at the beginning of this year, the key question that we're looking for on the earnings call is whether Coinbase can make money when trading dries up as it did this year. Subscription revenue, that includes stable coins

and staking $584 million versus $698 million a year ago and expectations for this quarter of $619 million. So if there is growth there while trading stays soft, that is something that would reinforce that Coinbase is becoming less dependent on speculation cycles. Is the non-transaction business big enough to stabilize earnings in weaker cycles. That is kind of the question that investors are going to be listening for on the call. Tena, thanks. Today, McHia. Let's get to Contessa Burr. She's got Draft King's numbers.

Contessa. Yeah, Melissa, we have a penny beat, a penny beat in earnings per share for Draft Kings. They came in at three cents rather than the two cents. The street was expecting. Revenue is basically in line. They came in at $1.65 billion. The street was expecting $1.64 billion. We've got EBITA, a nice beat here.

168 million versus the 155 million that the street was expecting. What you've seen here really is that this unified app has driven customer engagement, and I expect to hear more about that when we talk to Jason Robbins. The other thing is they say that this is driven by higher sportsbook net revenue margin, and they're maintaining guidance for this year. Of course, we saw two days ago with Flutter that they had actually lowered guidance for this year, and then a slew of analysts, notes, expressing some skepticism even about that lowered guidance. So this is a discrepancy from what we've seen from their biggest competitor.

The stock is up 3% now after hours. Melissa. All right, Contessa, thank you, Contessa Burris. She mentioned drafting CEO, Jason Robbins, will join us in a first on CNBC interview to break down the results. Coming up, several restaurant chains reporting results today. What are they saying about the current spending habits of the American consumer? That is next on closing bell overtime, live from the last. an azac market site.

Welcome back to Overtime. City Group ending the day higher after holding its first investor day in four years. The company says it's now targeting 14 to 15% return on tangible common equity by 2031. The outlook is short of the bar set by some of its biggest rivals like J.P. Morgan, of course, who said it would see a 20% return. City announced a new buyback program of $30 billion. It's about $10 billion higher than 2025. It's also about, you know, 14%.

percent of its market cap, the plans to expand its equities business as well. CEO Jane Fraser saying, we've rebuilt the engine in reference to the company's multi-year turnaround plan. Fraser will be joining President Trump on his trip to China next week as well, as city has flagged renewed investor interest in China, where it's operated for more than a century. Kind of an interesting swing in the stock initially when the basic bullet points of the return on equity target were out there. That's a little bit shy of what some on the street thought was possible, but then the buyback and a lot of the talk about the business line improvements. And, of course, it remains much cheaper as a price-to-book basis than its rivals, although it's definitely now at

a premium to tangible book value, but much smaller one than B of A or Wells Fargo. Exactly. And also, I mean, the turnaround juice, there's, you know, the expectation that there's a lot more to this turnaround in terms of appreciation. The guidance analysts, you know, as the day went on, notes came out, maybe that was conservative. And so there's sort of this willingness to say, you know what, we're going to give her the benefit of the doubt. Yes. Oh, and also don't miss an exclusive interview with City Chair and CEO Jane Frazier. That is tomorrow at 1130 AM on Money Movers following the firm's Investor Day presentation. Several restaurant names reporting today, and those results are mixed. Let's start with McDonald's, the company beat on earnings. The sales rebounded more than expected,

but saying the macro background isn't improving. It may be getting a little bit worse, the stock flat today. Shake Shack meantime, getting crushed in the company giving a list of reasons. First, beef prices, which we've noted have been rising, but also blaming the weather and weakness to tourism to major cities where a lot of locations are located. Dutch Bro is also falling today despite a solid report, but the company's sales guidance was only slightly ahead of estimates, and RBC is worried about competition from Starbucks. Papa John's down does it miss on earnings and revenues saying customers are trading down by cutting down on toppings and skipping sides and desserts,

Wings Stop also down today reported on April 29th. It's been down every day since, now at its lowest level, in more than three years. We get a lot of data. We get a lot of reads from other companies like the banks saying the consumer is strong, but when you take a look at this and you think about the lower-income consumer,

you really see the signs of the stress is really building up here. For sure. I mean, I think Kraft Heinz flagged as well. Consumers kind of running short of cash at the end of a month and building balances on revolving credit as well as, you know, just dipping into saving. So it definitely, you know, the restaurants are the front line of all that, obviously, you can easily bypass that meal. The other

piece of it is specialty chain restaurants like Shake Shack, Wing Stop, very low percentage of them end up being like multi-decade winners. It really is kind of like you kind of have the buzz for a while and it's really hard to hold on to it. And Shakeshack saying their costs going up, they simply can't turn customers away by passing a long price of this. I was saying, you know, like a meal at Shake Shack is like a $12 or a fair, $12 to $15. Whereas McDonald's, you got the value platform, which they launched in, what, 2025 or so. And that's really been taking off, add something on for a dollar, add something on for a dollar. And that is very much the environment that we're in.

It's a thrust of all their advertising at the moment as well. Although even with that, McDonald's, even though it was fractionally lower, it did hit a 52-week low because that group has been out of favor. All right, coming up, we'll check on some of the big movers following the flurry of earnings we got at the top of the hour. Let's check on a couple of earnings movers. Shares of Trade Desk moving lower, the company missing EPS estimates at $0.28 versus estimates of $0.32. Revenue coming in slightly above the forecast. The company sees Q2 revenue of at least $750 million versus estimates of $7.71. Shares a block, ticker symbol XYZ gaining in after hours, beating by 17 cents a share.

Revenue was right in line with expectations, issuing second quarter earnings guidance of 86 cents. share. That compares to the current forecast of 81 cents, stock up eight and a half percent, and is actually a pretty big off the lows. I think the recent lows, like 48. And of course, did that huge mega layoff as well. Right. But I mean, the fear of displacement within the sector has been really firmly gripped in terms of the stock performance. The whole payments, yeah, competition is scramp. Yeah. Time for CNBC News Update with Leslie. Leslie. Hey, Melissa, the State Department will start revoking passports from thousands of parents who owe significant unpaid child support. The department tells the Associated Press it will begin tomorrow and

focus on those who owe $100,000 or more and will soon expand to parents who owe more than $2,500, which is the threshold set by a little-used 1996 law. Tennessee Republican lawmakers today passed a new house map for the midterms that he raises a majority black district in Memphis, and gives it a Republican advantage. It's the first state to pass new maps since the Supreme Court last week significantly weakened the Voting Rights Act's protections for minorities.

Last month, the Senate banned trading on prediction markets for members and staff. Today, GOP rep Ashley Henson introduced a resolution in the House to closely mirror the Senate version. While several lawmakers have floated bills this year to more widely ban the process, none have become law.

CNBC and the Kalshi prediction market have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. I'll send it back to you. All right, earnings from Draft Kings out just moments ago. The stock slightly higher after hours. We'll talk to the company's CEO about those results coming up on overtime. Welcome back to closing bell overtime live from the NASDAQ market site. A downday for stocks, the now falling 300 points or about 0.6%. Smaller losses for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, The Russell 2000, by far the worst, losing more than 1.5%. Software was a leader, results from Datadog and Fortinet leading the way, but chips were mostly lower, especially

the red-hot memory names such as Sandisk and Micron, and checkout shares of Rackspace soaring after signing a memorandum of understanding with AMD. The two companies say they'll work on a new type of enterprise AI managed by Rackspace and powered by AMD processors. While markets may have taken a breather today, but under the surface, things, aren't looking embarrassed yet. Joining us now is John Kolovis. He's chief tactical strategist at macro risk advisors. Good to see you, John.

Good to see you, Mike. So obviously, markets kind of, I guess, regain the benefit of the doubt to a large degree, making new highs. Certainly the leadership of the AI trade got reasserted. Are we seeing some fatigue here? Are we seeing some stretch conditions? How are you reading? A little bit of both, right?

I think today, if you look underneath the surface, you see how small cats have wobbled a bit. You had a bit of an outside candle reversal there. you had your microcaps did the same thing. And you're so part of semiconductors also come down a little bit. So you have a little bit of, I guess a wobble, if you will, but I don't think it's necessarily the end. It's a bit of a warning shot.

Now, the risk here, if I can go with that, is that as we know, as things go parabolic, they're not going to correct sideways. They're going to come down pretty darn hard. So what I'm telling clients these days is this, you know, hang on loosely, right? Enjoy the trend, but be mindful of your levels in case, and we will eventually have a sharp pullback, and I think it will be over the sum of the mindset. For semiconductors in particular, does it tell you anything about the nature of this wobble that

Nvidia, which had not been participating, is now participating? Is there a rotation within the sector to sort of the relative underperformers? Yeah, I think that's actually a great observation. I think that's actually what could actually save the tape here, right? You have, you know, when you confront with the market with an RSI of 83, which is the Q is very, very, very high. But Nvidia is not. It's a middling momentum. I think you can actually look to the invidias of the world to kind of save the tape from actually falling completely out of bed at this level. And in terms of the S&P 500, where do you think this ultimately has its destination? I wonder because, you know, I was saying, a lot of people saying even at the lows in late March, okay, yeah, look like you have a lot

of the conditions in place, but it's nowhere near as washed out to where you springboarded higher last year after Liberation Day when you went up 40% in six months. Right, right. So let's back up the truck a little bit, right? So my view for the S&P for this year is 7650, okay? I haven't shaken that at all yet. When the last time I was on, we talked about technical green shoots. All right, I was like, boom, I think the low is in. We're going to push up higher.

And those technical green shoots free, what's known as a good overbought condition. And in this environment, it's like very concentrated indices, which has been about the last 10 years, you don't fight momentum. When something's overbought, you embrace it, you hug it, you, and you're right of that way. So what do I think the market can go? 7650 before the end of the year. But this current leg, I can see the market getting. getting into around that, call it 75-ish area before we can, before we roll over. And my guess is,

you know, the summer months, we'll see a retest at the Q1 highs. What does oil do in the meantime? In the meantime, oil right now is sideways. Okay, depending on your contract, it peaked somewhere around 100, 110. It's sideways. You know, first thing we need to see with oil is that it needs to break its 50-day moving average before you can move low. And ultimately 80 bucks, then we can breathe easier. Until then, it's sideways. Now, longer term, and I've talked about this with, before and air is I think oil is in a secular advance. It bottomed last year. It's probably going to go to $150,200 over the next couple years. But right now, which is more important about the wobbles, it's just consolidating. It's moving sideways. You break under 80. I think we can feel

a lot better about risk. And I think at that point, breadth will actually start to improve. And in terms of treasury yields, it was kind of a kick save, right? You didn't go to four and a half on tens or anything like that. Is that also going to be kind of range-bound and sideways for a bit? So, yeah, I think interest rates are arranged by the time being $4.50, 4 and a half being the ceiling or so. But I think the main chart to watch, everybody's watching the nominals, it's the 10-year break-evens that are super important. Now, if you were to actually look at a chart, four-year chart of the 10-year break-evens, it is a massive coiled spring. To me, I think that's the biggest risk here in the market. You break that out above two and a half, boom, inflation

expectations are going to take off, and the market's going to get crushed. So my guess is, is that the market is not going to pull back because of overvaluation and things are overbought. it's some sort of macro-induced drawdown that it comes. So I think oil could be part of it. Inflation expectation could be a part of it. A new Fed chairman usually brings in a test. I think that happens. And also, since last time I was on, I did a study on V bottoms.

V bottoms typically don't see their first shakeout until about five to six week after the low. That gets us into the end of May into June timeframe. What does that also line up with? The midterm election seasonality, which is the weakest up the whole four years. So I think we're getting close to some sort of shakeout, but I don't think it's enough to derail the bull market. So let's say we do have that pullback that you're predicting, and then we go back to that level that you're predicting for the end of the year, 76050. Does a market composition do the leaders look the same as today or do they change? Probably they stay the same, right?

I'm in the camp of we're not going to see sustained broadening out until the next major bear market. So we're in a regime of concentrated portfolios and indices are just going to be more of the same. That was like the early 2000s. Exactly, right. Once we peaked in 2000. All right, the 38th special market. That's right. That's right.

John, great to see you. Thank you. John Colobos. All right. Ahead, shares of Draft Kings moving slightly higher after hours as earnings came in above estimates. Monthly unique pairs, players, came in below estimates. We're going to talk to the CEO in a first on CNBC interview next. And talk about a sky high Wall Street debut.

Shares of Hawkeye 360, which provides satellite intelligence services for the defense industry, soaring nearly 30% after pricing its IPO at $26 on Wednesday. It is the latest space company to go public ahead of the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. Close the bell overtime. Be right. Welcome back to overtime. It's all pain and no gain for Planet Fitness today. The gym operator beating Wall Street's first quarter earnings estimates, but slashing its

full year outlook by more than half because of slower than expected membership growth. The company CEO says affordability concerns are to blame for the weak signups. Planet Fitness share is now down roughly 60% this year. Interesting because the CEO also said that the environment is different. We're not going to push through this price increase that we're going to push through. Which had been the story, right? You start really low in terms of the price point. And I guess obviously the first quarter is New Year's Resolution season.

Exactly. If they miss on that quarter in terms of membership growth, it's hard to kind of make it up. And I know that everyone's already kind of bracing for the GLP one effect or maybe it just sort of changes demand. but I don't know, at $9 or $10 a month, it's unclear if that's really the driver here. All right. Well, Draft King's first quarter numbers out earlier this hour, the stock bouncing around right now after beating on the top and the bottom lines and reaffirming its full year revenue guidance. In April, the company saw its predictions consumer volume exceed a billion dollars an increase of more than 30 percent month over month.

Joining us now on a first on CNBC interview before the earnings call is Draft King's co-founder and CEO, Jason Robbins, along with our Contessa Brewer. Jason, great to have you with us. Hi, how are you? A billion dollars is a big number. Can you walk us through where that billion dollars comes from because there had always been the concern that it could cannibalize a sportsbook business. So what are you seeing?

Well, we only operate sports predictions in states that we don't offer online sportsbook. So it's coming from all those states. So it's entirely incremental. There's no cannibalization whatsoever. And are these new customers or are they other? customers who place bets already with you? You know, some of them are customers that had downloaded the app and used it when they were in a state that had legal sports betting, but many of them are new.

Really, the big story for us in predictions is the customer acquisition. The volume always lags that. You acquire the customers and then the cohorts produced. So we're actually really excited about what we're going to see in the coming years. You know, right now customer acquisitions on fire and we're not even in the busiest season yet. In fact, you reported that the customer acquisition cost. in April dropped 80% because you put the predictions into this new unified app that Sportsbooks and I Gaming and all that. Are you seeing lowered customer acquisition costs in Sportsbook

and in I gaming as well? No, this is really specific to predictions where that big drop occurred, and it was because, as you said, we integrated it into the super app. And that made a huge difference. What we realized before we did this was that the vast majority of customers, they don't know based on what state they're in, which app to download. So we made it easy for them. We made it not their problem, but our problem to sort out on the back end. And it's all now in one super app. So much easier for them to find much more streamlined and the CACs are plummeting.

Where do you think you are, Jason, in terms of just overall penetration, what the potential market is going to look like now that you do have, you know, prediction markets that are obviously open in states that are not legal sports betting states? Well, that's a great question. That's about 47% of the population, so nearly half of the customers that we could not reach with our sports betting product before. So, you know, this is very early, you know, year one of opening up many new states, essentially. And so I expect customer acquisition to grow substantially in the H-2 and then really continue into 2027 and beyond. Can I make any predictions as to how big prediction market revenue will be as a percentage of total, Jason?

That was good. that. We'll see. I'm not sure. At this point, it's very early. We do think that it can be a very substantial Tam, though. We laid out some estimates from that in our investor day, but it's early, so I don't want to put out a number just yet. But we do think it could be a very substantial growth engine for us for many years to come. Your competitor, Flutter announced on Wednesday that they are getting into the market-making business. Talk to me a little bit about how you're thinking about predictions overall. This is up, you know, sports part of this. is really being contested in federal court.

We all think it's headed to the Supreme Court. What do you do if sports are no longer part of the predictions picture? Well, that's something obviously we're following closely, and it's not up to us. It'll be up to the courts to determine that. We're going to continue to operate in the environment that we're given. And, you know, it's always interesting in this industry with a regulated industry. There's always things that are changing.

So we'll have to see how that plays out. But right now, as you mentioned, we are also in. in the market making business. That's something that we launched several months ago, and we're making money in it, which is great for a new line of business. Usually it takes much longer to get to profitability. This was much faster path than we're used to.

Jason, we talk a lot here about the growth of prediction markets business from companies that are otherwise in the investing or, you know, financial trading type platforms. And there's some discomfort, I think, with the way that prediction markets, largely sports, are right alongside of people's investments on a given app. I know you've always basically characterized sports betting as sort of entertainment consumption. Is there an issue for the overall prediction markets or backlash potential based on those

concerns? Well, it's a great question. It's something we don't do. We have, you know, all of our products are entertainment products, and that's how we view them, and that's how we market them. So I do think that's something people will pay attention to. and, you know, we can only control, we can control. And I think we've really been the good actor in this space.

There are a lot of things when you have a new industry where you see companies doing stuff they shouldn't be doing. And we've seen a lot of examples of that here. And I think Draft King has given our track record of being a regulated, responsible operator, doing it the right way, having all the infrastructure for responsible trading, responsible gaming, KYC, anti-money laundering, everything that you would want,

you know, really positions us to be doing this in a right way. and I think we have so far. Can you give us some color about the current quarter and the willingness of the consumer who we've heard so much about having difficulties, money's being tight? What is the cadence of their engagement on your app? We've seen incredible engagement numbers,

you know, as evidenced by a great quarter, we beat top and bottom line estimates, really just strong, strong performance. And it was all driven by the customer. We saw excellent customer engagement and continue to, you know, do the things that we need to do to create a great experience for people. And I think it's starting to show. And I think the differentiators, we've had the number one ranked product for quite some time.

And I think it's really starting to show up in our numbers that people are seeing a difference in the offering that we put out there versus some of the competition. But it's been strong since a quarter closed. That's what I'm asking the current, the quarter that we're in right now. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Jason, great to speak with you.

Thank you for your time. Thank you. Appreciate it. Robbins of Draft Kings and our Contessa Brewer. Thank you guys. Up next, much more on today's big after-hours earnings movers as we count down to the analyst calls from Airbnb and Lyft, plus what to expect from tomorrow's April jobs report and the potential impact it could have on the markets. Closing about overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. Be right back. Shares of Irons soaring after hours on news of a deal with Nvidia, the company's saying they

will work on data centers to combine Nvidia's AI factory architecture with Irons power and infrastructure operations. The deal also gives NVIDIA the right to buy up to $30 million of stock at a price of $70 a share. That could be an investment of up to $2.1 billion. Iron share soaring to $68 after hours. All right. Well, let's get one more check on the earnings reports out at the top of this hour. Coinbase, Airbnb, and Lyft, all missed estimates on the bottom line. Despite that, Airbnb managing a small gain after hours. Akamai, making a big move higher, a new. narrow beat on earnings right in line on revenue. Company also saying it reached a deal for cloud infrastructure services with what it calls a leading frontier model provider, only a couple of those,

I guess, saying the deal could be worth $1.8 billion over seven years. Cloudflare, another big mover, but to the downside. It beat on earnings and revenue and its guidance is mostly in line with estimates, but says it will be cutting about 1,100 jobs. It's roughly 20% of the workforce, those shares down 13 and a half percent. Well, let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Wendy's is the only big name on the earnings calendar, but investors will be paying very close attention to the April jobs report. Non-farm payroll seen rising by 55,000, the unemployment rate expected to hold steady

at 4.3 percent. Economists predicting the unemployment rate to hold, as I said, 4.3 percent. Average hours, hourly wages increased by 3.8 percent year every year. We'll also be on the lookout for the preliminary May reading of consumer sentiment. So this should be an interesting one to watch. Estimates, in terms of the job growth has been creeping higher. I think the ADP report being strong for private payrolls and just in general, sort of a firmness, lack of unemployment claims working through the system. And then the question is how much is enough, right? I mean, 50,000 jobs is actually probably enough to keep

the unemployment rate steady or have it go down. We've priced out fed rate cuts, so I guess it probably doesn't have much of a potential to swing that out. I was going to say less important perhaps than other jobs reports in the past, but still very interesting. It feels that way. Yeah, the labor market is not the front and center indicator in this particular moment in the cycle. All right, that does it for overtime today.