Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Former Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld On Tariffs; Priceline CEO On Holiday Travel Demand 11/26/24

Episode Date: November 26, 2024

The Dow and S&P 500 set record closes as the market shook off tariff and rates worries. Earnings from Autodesk, Workday, Nutanix, Dell,  Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters and HP after the bell, plus Evercore analyst Peter Levine digs deep into CrowdStrike’s earnings report. Former Alcoa and Siemens CEO Klaus Kleinfeld weighs in on how companies are planning for potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. Sheryl Palmer is CEO of Taylor Morrison, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders. She discusses the slowdown in new home sales and mortgage rates. Plus, Priceline CEO Brett Keller on holiday travel demand and why this Thanksgiving could set travel records. 

That bell marks the end of regulation for Ready Group, bringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Chris Hood doing the honors at the Nasdaq and record closes for the S&P 500 and the Dow. After an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and Fed minutes that showed more easing in the future, though tariff fears weighed on some parts of the market. That's the scorecard on Wall Street, but winners stay late. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm John Fort with Morgan Brennan. Well, we have a jam-packed show coming your way, including earnings results from Dell, CrowdStrike, Autodesk, Workday, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, and more. Plus, if that's not enough, two industry insiders weigh in on the impact of

President-elect Trump's tariffs on American business. Former Siemens and Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld joins us with a look at the potential fallout for metals and tech. And the CEO of home builder Taylor Morrison, which has been on a hot streak this year, will discuss the impact on lumber and building materials. As we await those earnings, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, Lori Kalvasina, and Vital Knowledge founder, Adam Crisafulli. Guys, good afternoon. So, Lori, you're out with your year-end 2025 price target for the S&P 6,600, which would be about 10% upside from here. $5,775, bear case as high as $6,700. What do you think it takes to get us there?

So look, well, thanks for having me as always. And as I think as we look into next year, we see a continued moderation in inflation, which should help keep PE multiples elevated based on our analysis. We also think we're heading into another year of solid earnings growth and a solid economic backdrop. And I think one question we have is exactly how strong is the economy going to be? We've modeled in GDP that grows at, say, from the 2.1 to 3 percent range, which is typically a pretty healthy backdrop for stocks. Right now, consensus forecasts are looking for about 2 percent. So we're assuming that those are going to nudge up as we head into the new year. But overall, we think it's going to be another solid year. All right. I want to mention Workday,

Nutanix and Autodesk results are out. We are going through a couple of those, at least are higher. Nutanix slightly lower. But, you know, you can't read too much into these initial reactions. Adam Crisafulli, a lot of talk lately about tariffs and geopolitics, a lot of influence on this market, you think, coming from beyond the shores? So the price action today was definitely impressive. You know, you had the thread out last night from Trump about Mexico, Canada and China. You know, I think markets are kind of looking at it in a few ways, one of which is, you know, they've learned from the first Trump administration that there's usually kind of a wide chasm between pronouncements and reality.

And so they're going to wait to see what actually comes to fruition from January, February or March. And then, you know, I think beneath the surface, you did see certain sectors that are very exposed to tariffs today, like auto stocks in particular, get hit hard. And then you have this rotation into tech, which dominates the indices. And that's really what you saw is a very much a tech-led rally today those stocks are considered to be a little bit more immune to tariff risk and so that's how markets are handling it they're rotating within the market rather than exiting stocks wholesale and then on the geopolitical front you know i think markets assumed you had media reports for the last several days pointing to the high likelihood of a Lebanon ceasefire.

And now I think the focus is going to kind of shift back to Ukraine, where Russia is gaining ground at the fastest pace since the start of the war. And that's kind of the last big conflict, you know, that investors will be looking for clarity on over the coming months as Trump takes office. Yeah, we'll be watching that one. In the meantime, we have our first earnings report ready. Workday results. Kate Rooney has the numbers for us. Hi, Kate. Hey, Morgan. It was a beat across the board for Workday. We'll start with that adjusted EPS number, $1.89 on EPS. That was a beat. Street was looking for $1.76 there. Revenue also stronger than

expected, coming in at $2.16 billion. Subscription revenue is pretty much in line with what the street was looking for. And the non-GAAP operating margin is 26.3%. That was higher than expected. Some comments here on Q4 subscription revenue, looking stronger than expected. And then Q4 operating margins, slightly light, but pretty much in line. There are also some news in the C-suite. They are hiring a new role. It's a chief commercial officer. This is Rob Enslin. So they say he's going to be responsible for driving revenue growth, leading the company's global sales and partnerships as well.

So some news in the C-suite there, guys. You can see shares moving around here a bit after hours, down almost 2% at this point. Back to you. All right. Thank you for that. Well, Nutanix earnings are out as well. Seema Modi has the numbers.

Look, that was higher. Seema? Yeah, John, the stock continuing to move higher in overtime on what is a solid beat from Nutanix, a multi-hybrid cloud company reporting 42 cents, a big beat versus the estimate of 31. Revenue at $591 million, which is also above consensus. Gross margins look better than what Wall Street was anticipating. And keep in mind, the stock just hit a 52-week high in today's trade. The CEO comments here on bringing innovations to the market, supporting the company's vision of becoming the leading platform for running apps and managing data anywhere, while strengthening their partner ecosystem, which they are doing. They recently announced a new partnership with Amazon's AWS. We're looking at the stock up another 2.5% in overtime, guys.

Seema, thank you. I also want to mention, Morgan, the revenue guide for Q2 midpoint of $640 million. The street was looking for $631 million. So that's a solid beat. The range, whole range is above what the street was looking for. You know, we've been talking about it for literally months now. The fact that you were sort of starting to see this inflection point in software. Nutanix, perhaps the latest example of that, as we do await some more results here. Lori, I want to go back to you because Adam just noted, you know, we did see this sluggish reaction to tariffs in the markets today. It is sort of seen as this tete-a-tete negotiating tactic. Where you did see perhaps a little more activity, though, was in the currency market.

And then just the fact that big tech once again today outperformed. And the last time you were on the show, we talked about this, whether this felt like a market that was akin to 2017 or under this new incoming Trump administration or whether it was one more similar to 2018. So when you do talk about your 2025 forecast, how are you factoring in some of these different policies and what it could mean for earnings, what it could mean for macro data like inflation, et cetera? So it's a great question, Morgan. And I'll be honest with you, as we were putting that 2025 outlook together, it's something we struggled with. I think the phrase that comes to my head is hope for the best and prepare for the worst. And that's why we did articulate that base case alongside that bear case. In addition to the fact that some of our models, while they're still in a

favorable range, are somewhat close to getting to levels that might be less favorable for stocks going forward. I think it's interesting if you look at the market reaction recently, you know, we've certainly seen the market do well on good vibes, especially from the Besant pick and just post-election in general. But I was actually looking at the sector performance right before we hopped on the air. And it's really interesting to me that some of the defensive sectors, some of the areas like utilities that are less exposed to a stronger dollar, areas like REITs, these have been some of the best performing sectors over the last few weeks, really, since we got past the election. So it does feel to me, you know, what Adam was talking about earlier, rotation under the surface that is reacting to some of these fears. I think the market is kind of doing the same thing at this point in time. All right. Well, we've got a key

reading on the AI trade. Dell earnings are out. Christina Parts Nevelis has those numbers for us. Christina. Well, investments in AI, to your point, helped drive Dell's infrastructure group, but it wasn't enough to offset weakness in PC sales. For Q3, Dell posted an earnings per share beat of $2.15 adjusted on revenues of $24.37 billion, which was lower than what the street had anticipated. Its infrastructure business, which includes servers, storage, as well as networking, that came in at $11.37 billion, which is almost in line with estimates. Dell's chief operating officer, Jeff Clark, stating in the press release, quote, Interest in our portfolio is at an all-time high, driving record AI server orders demands of $3.6 billion in Q3 and a pipeline that grew more than 50%.

They now have about $4.5 billion in backlog of AI servers specifically. But that wasn't enough growth to offset the weakness in its client solutions group, which includes personal computers, for example. Management stating that customers are lining up their upgrade cycle with new AI PCs in the first half of next year. Guidance coming on the earnings call, shares down almost 5%. Guys? All right. Christina Parts Nebelis, thank you. We've got Nordstrom earnings out as well. Courtney Reagan has those numbers. Hi, Court. Hi there,

Morgan. Yeah. So let's take a look at what Nordstrom is reporting for the quarter earnings per share. Looks like EPS of 33 cents adjusted, 27 cents gap. Either way, both of them are above street estimates of 21 cents. So a beat on the EPS there. Revenue is also stronger than expected at $3.46 billion compared to $3.35 billion. And same-store sales up 4%. That is much stronger than the street expected. We are only looking for that to increase about 0.7%. Both the full-line department stores and the Nordstrom Rack stores both up about the same, 4% and 3.9% respectively. Women's apparel and active double digit growth. Shoes, men's apparel, kids up mid to high single digits. It looks like the full year could be a

little bit conservative based on what we're seeing here on the third quarter. But it does look like revenues at least they are projecting, excuse me, those to be up about 1 percent. The street looking at about 0.9 percent shares. An immediate reaction sort of bouncing around, but slightly negative. We'll get some more detail on the conference call and get some more color, hopefully, about what is expected here during this holiday season. It's a big week. I got to know more. John, back over to you. All right, Courtney, thanks. Now, Autodesk earnings are out. Pippa Stevens has those numbers. Pippa. Hey, John. Autodesk reversing some early gains here now, down about 4%, despite a top and bottom line beat for the third quarter.

EPS coming in at 217 adjusted. That was five cents ahead of estimates. Revenue was up 11 percent at 1.57 billion, also a little bit ahead of estimates. Now, the company did say that total billings grew 28 percent and also announced that they have a new CFO. That is Janice Morjani, effective December 16th. Now, the company's Q4 revenue guidance was slightly ahead of estimates. And in terms of Q4 EPS, they see it in a range of 210 to 216 versus the 212 that Wall Street was looking for. John. All right. Yeah. Wonder why the disappointment there when everything seems above.

We'll see. Thank you, Pippa. CrowdStrike earnings are out. That's a big one. Kate Rooney has those numbers. Kate. Hey, John, it was a strong beat for Q3. The guidance is looking a little bit light, which is likely why the stock is down almost 4% after hours here. We'll start with that EPS number adjusted. That's 93 cents. It was a 12 cent beat for the quarter on revenue of 1.01 billion. That was stronger than expected. Q3 operating margins at about 19 percent. And then the guidance I mentioned, Q4 EPS at the midpoint, a little bit light compared to what Sheree was looking for. And then on Q4 revenue, pretty much in line, but a little bit conservative on guidance. A couple other points here from the release, four billion dollars in ARR growing 27 percent

year over year. There's a quote here from the CEO, George Kurtz, talking about 97% gross retention and highlighting that $4 billion in ARR number. No mention of the outage here. We were doing some Control-F, seeing if there's any commentary. Likely we'll get more of that on the call, guys. But you can see stock down almost 4% after hours. Back over to you. All right. Kate Rooney, thank you. Adam Crisafulli, I want to go back to you because we just got a parade of results across a number of industries, whether it's the consumer, whether it's tech and software. Your thoughts? Yeah, so I mean, I think for tech, for enterprise tech, it looks like demand is relatively healthy. I think for some of these names that have had big runs and are pretty expensive on a valuation

basis, there might be some knee-jerk disappointment on certain aspects of the guidance. But it looks like all these companies are still seeing pretty healthy demand. You know, the one exception being Dell's PC commentary. And you kind of saw a little bit of a preview of that with the Best Buy results this morning where they also called out a little bit of softness. You know, PC companies are optimistic looking at over the next 12 months with the end of Windows support and then AI upgrades. But, you know, I think that's kind of a wait and see story. But AI server demands echoes a lot of what NVIDIA said last week about being just very strong. And then on the consumer, you know, there's been a lot of mixed earnings this season. The consumer in aggregate seems to be holding in

very well, but certainly some companies are performing well and others are not. So Urban Outfitters and Nordstrom look like they had decent numbers. And then obviously Kohl's this morning and Target last week were pretty dreadful. So certain retailers are definitely suffering. Others that have carved out a niche or are capturing market share are managing to hold in decently. All right. Adam Crisafulli, Lori Calvisina, thanks for kicking off the hour with us with record closes for both the Dow and the S&P. We have more results to bring you. Urban Outfitters earnings are out, too. And Courtney Reagan has those numbers. Hi, Morgan here. So Urban Outfitters

also turning in a stronger than expected quarter, beating earnings per share $1.10 adjusted. The street was looking for 86 cents. So that's a nice beat. Urban revenues also better than expectations, $1.36 billion. That outstrips $1.34 billion expected. Same store sales for the overall company, all the brands, up 1.5%, slightly better than expected. And then when you look by business segment, really was the namesake urban outfitters. That's the weakest. They did see comparable sales here fall 8.9%. The street was looking for that to fall, but not quite that much. And then the other divisions

were higher, anthropology and free people higher by 5.8% and 5.3% respectively. When it comes to the holiday quarter, no exact guidance, though. The CEO is saying he's optimistic when it comes to the outlook for the holiday, and he expects comparable sales to be similar to what they put up here in the third quarter, which would be a gain of 1.5%. Back over to you, John. All right. Well, that one's up a lot, almost 6%. Court, thank you.

But this one's up even more. Ambarella earnings are out. Pippa Stevens has the numbers. Pippa. That's right, John. Ambarella's up 17% here in extended trading after a top and bottom line beat for the third quarter. EPS adjusted at 11 cents. That was eight cents ahead of estimates. Revenue was up 63 percent at 82.7 million. The company also sees Q4 revenue between 76 and 80 million. That's ahead of the 69

million that Wall Street was looking for. Now, the company did say that company specific factors are more than offsetting broad market weakness. And they said that strength for their higher-priced AI inference processors is part of what's behind the quarterly beat. And once again, that stock is up 17 percent. Morgan? All right. It's a big standout here so far. Pippa, thank you.

We have much more earnings action coming your way. Up next, an analyst's first take on CrowdStrike and the impact from that massive July cyber outage. And later, the CEO of HomeBuilder, Taylor Morrison, weighs in on how the Trump tariffs could impact the builders. After a strong run for that group this year, overtime's back in two. Welcome back to Overtime. HP earnings are out, and Seema Modi has those numbers. Seema. Morgan HP delivering earnings that came in line with estimates, 93 cents, a beat, though, on revenue, topping $14 billion in the quarter.

Sales tied to printers came in above Wall Street consensus, but personal systems slightly light, though HP CEO Enrique Larez telling CNBC that now AI PCs make up about 15% of overall PC shipments. That number expected to grow. Enterprise, he says, is growing faster as companies look to replace and replenish aging technology. And on the prospect of tariffs, Larez said HP started redesigning its manufacturing footprint about three years ago and therefore is more resilient to geopolitical changes. And that, you know, I asked him also

about that recent tweet from Elon Musk about interest in upgrading America's software and infrastructure. He said that they are in touch with President-elect Trump's transition team. I would mention full year guidance, Morgan, is in line with consensus. And we are looking at the stock down just about 9 percent here in overtime. All right. Seema Modi, thank you. Don't miss Jim Kramer's exclusive interview with HP's CEO. That is coming up at 6 p.m. on Mad Money. All right. Well, CrowdStrike shares falling right now after reporting earnings moments ago. Joining us now is Evercore ISI analyst Peter Levine. He has an outperform rating, $400 price target on the stock.

Peter, welcome. Well, the stock's down a little bit here in overtime, but given the run that it's been on over the past few days and where it's come from, I mean, this was under 220 back in August. What do you think is the worst officially behind CrowdStrike after this quarter that has some of that outage in it? I mean, I think it's a much better than expected quarter. We saw across the board, even their metrics, customers adopting multiple modules this quarter versus last is up. So their attach rates are doing much better. We saw the pressure, obviously, on the top line, a little bit of pressure on the margin line. Obviously, that's because of the discounting.

But I think their numbers came in well better than expected. So I think the initial fear that most thought that customers were going to churn and walk away, that's not the case here. So I think this was actually a really good quarter to prove out that if they can continue to execute over the next three quarters, lap the outage from July 19th, this could be a stock that kind of gets back to where it was prior. Any lingering risk here, maybe legal risk from the likes of Delta or no? I think you have some of these one-offs. I think the Delta issue, you've had Microsoft defend CrowdStrike. They've proven out that they've tried to reach out and help Delta.

I don't know how much of that is more of their tech stack being a little antiquated. But outside of them, obviously that will fight out in court. Again, from our work, it doesn't seem like that's the case. I think a lot of customers initially were upset. But again, the tech and the efficacy of the tech, I think, out trumps what I think CrowdStrike has protected a lot of their customers more than the outage. And unfortunately, the outage happened. That was a blunder in their end. But I think what they've done in terms of correcting the issue, giving customers a lot more support, the way management's kind of communicated the message, I think you're more support, the way management's kind of communicated the

message. I think you're seeing that play out with customers sticking with CrowdStrike and obviously these results prove it. Yeah. So in light of these results and the fact that they're better than expected, how much of this really is truly a reflection of the offering that CrowdStrike has in the market versus the fact that we're talking about a secular growth area within tech when we're talking about cybersecurity? I think it goes to their tech. You know, again, there's a lot of secular trends within cybersecurity. If you think about the geopolitical environment, you know, cyber attacks here domestically, like that's not going to change.

So I think CrowdStrike's technology, I think, proves out that, you know, customers don't want to leave for a superior product. And given CrowdStrike has done a really good job of broadening out their platform and the offerings they have, it's attractive to customers to kind of keep or consolidate portions of their tech stack. I think CrowdStrike is going to be a beneficiary of that. All right. Peter, thanks for joining us. We share the CrowdStrike down about 3 percent right now. We'll see what they have to say on the call. When we come back, former Alcoa and Siemens CEO Klaus Kleinfeld joins us with his

reaction to President-elect Trump's tariff proposals and what they could mean for metals and tech in the global supply chain. And later, the CEO of Priceline will be with us to talk about the potentially record-breaking Thanksgiving travel week and what's driving the big gains this year at parent company booking holdings. Be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. President-elect Trump announcing he intends to impose a 25 percent tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China. These are moves that could hit a wide variety of industries from metals and autos to agricultural products. Joining us now is a man who has plenty of experience in international trade, Klaus Kleinfeld, who formerly headed

aluminum giant Alcoa, as well as Arconic, which was spun off of Alcoa, and then German conglomerate Siemens before all of that. He is also the author of the new book, Leading to Thrive. And he joins us now on set. Klaus, it's great to have you here. Pleasure, Morgan. Pleasure, John. All right. So before I get into the book, I do want to ask you about the news of the day, and that is what we're hearing from the president-elect about the possibility of tariffs. Markets largely seem to take it in stride, but the areas of the markets that got dinged the hardest were things like materials,

like other types of commodities. I wonder how you see this potentially playing out. Well, the way I interpret this is I'm a free trade person, you know, and I believe in the level playing field, you know. And what we've seen here is that it has been signaled that these countries that have been singled out, like particularly Mexico and Canada, are supposed to have better border control, you know, and the influx of immigration as well as drugs, you know. So I see this as a classic chapter out of the art of the deal book, you know.

Basically, when you start a negotiation, you show your tools, you show that you have potentially some very dangerous tools because the pain it can inflict, not just on the U.S. consumer, but more so on the Mexican and Canadian people, you know, is much, much bigger. So I simply think that this is going to play out in a good way. And it's just the start of a hopefully very fruitful negotiation from our end. It's interesting because we do have this USMCA North America trade agreement. Some of that starts to come up for the possibility of review and renegotiation, I believe, the end of 2026. Canada, to me, is a little bit of a head scratcher here. Mexico, perhaps I can understand,

just given how much, even just looking to the Chinese, how much Chinese supply chain and manufacturing activity is now making its way, for example, with autos to Mexico. I mean, you and I spent time together when you were at Arconic. You were making parts for the auto industry, making parts for aerospace. These are two of those industries that could be impacted by this. What does it do to supply chains? Well, it's a disruption, obviously. I mean, we have the big pleasure in the U.S. that we have two neighboring countries, you know, who give us additional competitiveness, you know, one that is low on labor costs and which is Mexico, another one that has great skills also, which is Canada. And we've made use of this. So typically,

you would say from economics perspective, that's fantastic. Not many places have been in that. You know, when Europe opened up and suddenly Hungary, Poland, and those places became open for the West, it strengthened Europe, strengthened the supply chain. The moment you build up tariff barriers, as the word says, it's a barrier. It weakens. It weakens business. But as I said before, I don't think that this is meant to weaken the U.S. It's meant to strengthen the U.S. We have a problem clearly with border control on the immigration as well as on the drug

influx side. Somebody has to tackle it. And I think that's just the start of this conversation. So, Klaus, you've got this book, Leading to Thrive. How does a leader, particularly a multinational leader, thrive in the back half of the 2020s when you've got this sort of breakup of globalism happening? You've operated, tended to, from my perspective, it seems, within the U.S. on behalf of companies that are based outside of the U.S. So I'm really interested in your take on that. Well, my take is broader than

that because I'm not just talking about a leader of a company. I'm talking about you as a person, as an individual. I used to be a big fan of effectiveness, efficiency, and thought that I wanted to get stuff done about performance, you know. And that led me to believe in time management as it looked to be very efficient. One day I realized it's not about time. It's about energy. It's about your personal energy. You need energy for anything that you want to do, you know? And then the question is, how do you maximize energy? How do you handle yourself?

I call it the inner game. How do you make sure that you have enough energy? And particularly as a leader, you have to energize people. You have to make people do the things that you want them to at a certain point in time. You know, so that led me to at a certain point in time. You know, so that led me to find a strange dichotomy. I always thought high performance sports and business leaders are high performance people.

Interestingly, in business, you see a lowering tenure of CEOs. You see burnouts happening at a much earlier pace. You know, you see loneliness, you know, as an endemic in the U.S. On the sports side, on the contrary, I love tennis, you know, so I watch tennis, I play tennis, I wish I could play a little better. You see the contrary. You see the contrary. The top level of tennis players have gotten older. They are longer in their tenure. So that led me onto this journey and say, what's going on there? What's going on? And I saw that these people have at an early point in time understood that it's really about the old philosophy. You have to manage your mind, body, and soul, you know? So it's really about these three things.

And then the question is, what leads to this? Physical things are understood relatively well. Many people say, I don't have time for this. It's not a function of time. You have practices like breathing. Breathing practices that can bring you back instantly. All of the tennis players have learned that. When you look today at professional tennis game, you know, they refresh in between the serves.

The serve can last maximum 20 seconds. You know, they all have their learned routine where they forget what happened before and they refresh and then they are back in the game Some games have lasted over four hours and you look at these guys They are also just human but they know how to use basically body mind and their soul, you know to give them energy That's the basic thing, you know. And then it comes back to purpose. That's the other thing. Purpose to energy is like what laser does to light. It focuses you on a certain thing and you can break through basically any barrier. So definitely some key words of wisdom here. The fact that you, but I am going to bring this back

to because you not only do counsel business leaders, but you counsel international leaders and heads of state as well. So what are you counseling them right now? Well, I wouldn't have, if you would have asked me two years ago, would you write a book about this? I wouldn't have said no way, you know, and what triggered this is that I'm working with a lot of CEOs and I've seen that those aspects that they are very often they are burning out at an earlier point in time and how can they live a life you know as a fulfilled human life and at the same time be great leaders because the interesting thing is these things together it's all about performance you know the moment you have a strong inner game you can bring it to a strong outer game.

The moment you think you can push, push, push and don't recharge, you'll hit the wall eventually. So in the end, I think we have to change our way of looking at these things. The moment you understand this is how the inner game works, this is how I bring energy back, this is my purpose, and then bring it to your outer game. Build a top team. It's all about, in the end, I believe, sustainable competitive advances only come to you. You have to have talent and you have to make them work together. It's all about instead of a, like in sports, there's a lot of analogies, you know. You have these teams that have top players and you have teams that really play as a team, you know. All right. Klaus Kleinfeld, thank you. Appreciate it. Congratulations on the book.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Time for a CNBC News update with Pippa Stephens. Pippa. Hi, John. A fugitive on the FBI's most wanted terrorist lists appeared in a London courtroom today after being captured in the UK. The UK's National Crime Agency said the fugitive, Daniel Andreas Sand Diego, was arrested Monday in Wales after being on the run for 20 years. San Diego was placed on the FBI's most wanted terrorist list in 2009 after he was charged for two animal rights-related bombings in California in 2003. Brazilian police say the country's former president, Jair Bolsonaro, had a direct role in

planning a coup attempt after losing the 2022 election. The final police report, which was made public today, listed eight pieces of evidence the police say backs up the accusations against the former president. And an Osprey carrying White House staff from an event in New York Monday was grounded due to safety reasons. One witness reported seeing flames under the right engine. Passengers were transferred to another aircraft. The entire Osprey fleet was grounded earlier this year after a fatal crash in Japan that killed eight service members. Morgan, back to you. All right, Pippa Stevens, thank you. Well, coming up, the Dow and the S&P 500 closing at records. Recent hedge fund positioning could provide a vital clue about where stocks are headed next. We've got those charts to explain. And the CEO of HomeBuilder, Taylor Morrison,

joins us with a look at how tariff and labor policy could have a big impact on her industry. Be right back. Welcome back. The Dow and the S&P setting closing records today and the latest read on hedge fund positioning could provide some clues about where the market is headed next. Well, CNBC's senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is with us to explain. Mike. Yeah, Morgan, of course, the S&P 500 on the track for the second straight 20 percent up year and hedge funds are chasing it. They're fully involved. This is from Bank of America's prime brokerage services for long short equity hedge funds to show their exposures, their leverage, how much the total value of their positions are. Net leverage, that's long positions. Net of short positions is pretty much at a multi-year high here. That's the orange line around 70 percent net positioning. Gross

leverage, of course, is everything, including shorts. It's a higher number because of that borrowing. And it's also pretty high. It's a higher number because of that borrowing. And it's also pretty high. It's actually about as high as it's been for a few years here. That's on the left here, about 200 percent. So in other words, these funds are definitely fully involved. It doesn't necessarily mean the market is peaking out, but it shows that the incremental buyer might not really be there or need to do a lot of additional buying. Now, the volatility index is really settling down into the low normal range. It's hit 14 today. And you see here,

it's actually kind of below where we got to for a little time, you know, back in the in the spring. And essentially, this is not unusual for the end of the year when the market has been strong, but also lower volatility readings mean that hedge funds take it as a signal that they can take more risks. So for a while, this is like self-reinforcing until it gets to a certain point where you have a volatility event and you have the unwind. So that's just the setup going into year end. I think people are pretty fully participating in this market.

There's been an embrace of the bull case. We'll see if that comes in for a little bit of a gut check at some point, John. Sounds like not a creature is stirring, not even a mouse. Mike Santoli, thank you. That's coming soon. Up next, President-elect Trump's promise to impose 25 percent tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada could have an enormous impact on home building. The CEO, one of the nation's largest home builders, tells us how that could impact her business and home prices when overtime returns. Welcome back to overtime. New one-family home sales plunging over 17 percent in October. That's the biggest month-over-month drop since 2013. Meantime, the home builder's ETF is up just over three percent since the election, as investors weigh a Fed that's cutting rates versus a new administration that's threatened wide-ranging tariffs on key building materials.

Joining us now is Cheryl Palmer. She's chairman and CEO of Taylor Morrison, one of the nation's largest homebuilders. Great to have you, Cheryl. So how much are suppliers looking to push inventory into the U.S. ahead of late January? How much of an impact would these tariffs be, you think, on your business, your industry, if they go into effect? Well, thanks for having me here today. You know, it's a great question. I'd start with, it's probably a little too early to fully understand the real impacts. But having said that, we have for some time intentionally been developing a more resilient supply chain over really the past several years, continuing expanding the work,

the practices that were necessary during COVID. Not necessarily to prepare for any one specific event, but to keep us prepared and flexible for any potential impacts. And we've done this a number of different ways through skew rationalization, you know, shifting much of our product to domestically produced products, strengthening the relationships. I believe that, you know, we will see some impact on cost, probably not on availability. The threat of tariffs in Canada and Mexico may provide a bargaining tool to allow for some renegotiation to strengthen the replacement for NAFTA. So we'll see if that's helpful. You know, those tariffs are already in place in China, as you know.

So this will be an additional 10 percent burden. Many of our manufacturing partners, I think, have already shifted to countries other than China to avoid the current tariffs. So I don't think they'll be as quite as affected. You know, we'll probably see some margin grab from some. Okay. When I think about China, it's probably more electronics. When I think about Canada, the primary concern, I think, will be energy and lumber. Makes sense. So I want to also ask you about your business specifically and the buyers in your business. Tell me about in 2025, maybe beyond that, the importance of the move up buyer continued importance to margins because they're

less likely than those first time buyers to try to get those incentive dollars into buying down the mortgage, which is more more expensive than some other incentives. How important is it to get that move up buyer? And are they moving up with rates staying this high? Oh, yes. I mean, it's such an important question. I appreciate it, John, because the diversity of our portfolio, I think, is one of the keys to the success that we've had for quite some time. And you're right. The move-up buyer is about a third of our business. Our resort lifestyle, some refer to it as the 55 plus, is another third of our business. And they're in a very different position. I mean, those consumers

on average in the country today have over $400,000 in equity. And when you look at the impacts of what we've seen over, you know, I'd say the last three years, probably since 2020, so maybe four years, you know, we've seen 17% rise in income. We've seen 30% rise in actual home prices, but we've seen a 75% rise in payment. And that is disproportionately impacting that first-time consumer. When you think about our move-up buyers, our resort lifestyle buyers, nearly 40% of the homes today don't have a mortgage, and that's generally the move-up buyer. So they're a critical part of our business. And when we look at the average age, the other stat that I found quite interesting, when we look at the average age of buyers, really over the last

30, 40 years, the average age has moved up about eight or nine years. Once again, speaking to the strength of that move up buyer. It's interesting to hear that. I'm not necessarily surprised, but it is interesting to hear that. The'm not necessarily surprised, but it is interesting to hear that. The fact that we got some weak housing data today, new home sales specifically, a lot of that's being chalked up to what we've seen with hurricanes and storms in the last couple of months and disruption there. Is that is that what you're seeing as well across the market and within your own business? Or are there actually pockets of softness that are emerging or lingering? No, it's a fair question. I saw the numbers this morning, Morgan,

and I would agree that generally I would chalk up October to the election. You know, we see this, you know, this level of hesitation around every election, but I think it was a little bit more pronounced this time. The volatility in rates that we've seen over the last many weeks and certainly in October and then the storms. And I believe that because honestly, when each of those kind of calmed down, the storms, you know, passed, the election was done. And I'm very glad to have that behind us, we actually saw traffic pick back up,

sales pick back up. So I think that's actually pretty relevant. And I never let one month of numbers kind of, you know, determine a new trend. And I think that's particularly true here for October. Okay. Cheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison. Thanks for joining us. Great to have you on. Thank you. Good to see you. Up Thank you. It's good to see you. Up next, all of the overtime earnings action that needs to be on your radar as we count down to CrowdStrike's analyst call at the top of the hour. Welcome back. Let's get a check on some big overtime earnings movers. Ambarella shares surging up about 23 percent after a big earnings beat coming in at $0.11 per share versus estimates of just $0.03. AI Vision there. Dell and HP both lower.

Dell lower after revenue came in below expectations. HP pulling back as well. Earnings were in line with estimates. Revenues beat. Current quarter earnings guidance also mixed expectations. Rough PC market, Morgan. Yeah, certainly. It's a big move to prove it.

Well, up next, the CEO of Priceline on what could be the busiest Thanksgiving travel weekend ever. And whether consumers will keep spending big on travel into the new year. Stay with us. Welcome back. AAA predicting a record Thanksgiving travel weekend with roughly 80 million Americans hitting the road and the skies. Joining us now with a look at what he's seeing from customers is Priceline CEO Brett Keller. Brett, it's great to have you on. Is that what you're expecting as well, that we're going to see record travel by a record number of Americans over the next couple of days? That is what we're expecting, and that shouldn't be a surprise. I mean, moving forward, our hope is that every year we'll produce yet another record as consumers continue to spend and to enjoy their holiday. You know,

I think we'll see a lot of people on the road this year. I think of the 80 million predicted to travel, roughly 90 percent of those will be driving. And so that obviously opens up a lot of opportunity for folks to get out and travel. And even through the air, I think the flight volume is predicted to be up a couple of points over last year. So still good, healthy travel trends moving through the holidays. When you say that you expect to continue to see consumers spending more and more every year, is that a reflection of the fact that prices for these services continue to stay more elevated than they were a couple of years ago? Or the fact that consumers are just spending more on services, on experiences versus goods, and maybe that's a new normal?

I think a couple of things are happening. One is, you know, just looking back over the last couple of decades, travel typically outpaces the growth of GDP. And so we would expect travel to move at a faster pace. And the question is why? Well, there's a couple of reasons. One is consumers have more, at least historically, available spending power. And so they're really prioritizing travel over other commodities. And so they're using their cash to push towards travel. And two is that there are just more options available. There are more flight routes. There's more inventory, both in terms of traditional hotels and non-traditional accommodations. And so people are traveling more. And finally, with the change and

shift in patterns with work behavior, more people are adding trips to their business trips, which are now again surpassing where we were in 2019 on the business side. And so that just opens up more leisure demand as well. Imagine that we're still taking business trips. Brett, how is AI going to affect the travel planning, travel booking process? Is it going to increase frequency? Is it going to increase the number of things that people add on because the conversation is going to make the things that they want to do easier to find? What do you think so far? Yeah, I think the first thing that we'll start to see in the industry is that there's just more information available to consumers as they're making their decision.

They won't have to leave the booking process to go somewhere else and really spend a lot of time shopping and searching for that data. They can find it real time as they're going through the funnel. So that's really, I think, more of a conversion play. People will just get the information faster. Two is it will help them plan better travel and better trips so that they'll actually find destinations that they're happier with. They'll be able to find options that are more suitable to them, both from a price and a destination perspective. And so things will just get easier. They should get faster. And hopefully consumers will save more money as they use these tools to uncover really great savings. And that's obviously something we're very focused on at Priceline is to

use AI to deliver the best deals to our consumers. It's going to change the relationship between you and the airlines? I would certainly hope not. I hope it improves that, if anything, because as we help them, as we help consumers find the best options for them based on what they're looking for, that will only, I think, drive more demand towards our airline partners. All right. Brett Keller, CEO of Priceline. Thank you. Thank you. Morgan, we were just talking about it, but Dell and HP both lower, you know, somewhat on the PC

market overall, but also looking at Dell's server business and the AI business, it was about in line, not much above. And it kind of reflects, I guess, what NVIDIA reported, except you also got to wonder what Dell says about the allocation of chips that they're getting from NVIDIA since their backlog seems pretty strong. Yeah, and they certainly seem to have really played that up in their release to the backlog, the pipeline, what that means from an AI perspective. But we did get these early indications that you're going to see maybe see some, maybe some softer, disappointing numbers, even in Best Buy results this morning. Speaking of the retailer results we got right here in overtime, I thought were pretty

noteworthy, whether it was Urban Outfitters or Nordstrom, because it wasn't just strength in more of the, I guess, discount or value businesses like a Nordstrom rack. It seems to be pretty broad-based, which again, perhaps speaks to the strength of the consumer. Experiences over stuff. People are booking new trips on old PCs, I guess. And they're wearing athleisure to do all of it. We got a record close for the Dow and the S&P. The Russell 2000, though, taking a breather here today.

That does it for us at Overtime.