Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Getting Set For Big Tech; More Metals Mania 1/23/26

Episode Date: January 23, 2026

Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management looks ahead to a critical earnings slate for big tech when Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Apple report. Commodities stay in focus with Pippa Stevens and Helen Amos of BMO covering moves in gold, silver, and natural gas. Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 remains stuck near October levels. The broader macro setup with Tim Hayes of Ned Davis Research. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell's bringing an end to the trading day and the trading week at the NYSE Zeta Global ringing the bell and at the NASDAQ the partnership for maternal and child health of northern New Jersey. Welcome to closing bell overtime live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Melissa Lee alongside Mike Santoli. Stocks modestly mixed today. The Dow losing nearly 300 points in NASAC higher and the S&P 500 basically flat. And for the first time this year, the Russell 2000 underperforming the S&P, a loss of nearly 2% today. For the week, all the averages in the red, but still have done. big comeback for Tuesday's decline. More on this week's action straight ahead.

There are four MAG seven names lower for the year. Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, all of which are reporting next week. We'll look at what's at stake for these struggling big caps. But emblematic of the shift we've seen so far this year, big percent gains for Boeing, Caterpillar, and UPS. Those three reporting as well. We'll look at what they need to deliver. Our markets team has it all covered. Christina Parks, Inevelis on the Wild Week for stocks. Rick Santelli looking at the move in the dollar in the yen and Pippa Stevens on medals as silver hits $100 an ounce gold nearest 5,000. We start off with Christina for more on this week's big moves. Christina. You guys mention it, but stocks really closed out a choppy holiday short and week on a calmer note, let's just say.

The S&P 500 clawed back into positive territory for the year up about 1% after President Trump's tariff threats on Europe over Greenland, sent markets into the red earlier in the week. Tensions really eased after NATO said they made progress. Today, Microsoft jumped about 4%, adding over 100%. points of the Dow, Goldman fell three and a half, shaving more than 200 points. Intel, can I use the word hammered, but got hammered, down about 17% on weak guidance and gross margins, worst performer in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. InVIDIA, on the flip side, rose nearly 1.5% in hopes China would green light H-200 AI chip orders, though nothing is confirmed yet. Energy was a bright spot. Every

S&P 500 energy stock, or almost every stock, just before it came on set, you had the exception of APA and marathon, those closed negative on the week. The sector, though, posting its fifth weekly gain with geopolitical tensions around Iran and Greenland, really pushing that whole sector higher. Mega-CAC tech earnings start next week, as you mentioned, meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, where investors are really going to scrutinize AI spending and whether companies are actually monetizing it. Last but not least, retail investors still buying every dip. Tuesday was the third largest trading day for the group in a year as they scooped up stocks while the Dow fell 90. They have been proven right.

Christina, thank you. Christina Parts Nevelas. Mike, I think what was remarkable about the week is not necessarily the index moves, but what was going on underneath the index. And Christine had mentioned the move in big caps today. That was a decisive change. Absolutely. Today was really a 180 from what has been the prevailing trend to date.

So not just small caps underperforming, but mega cap tech getting a bid. And I just wonder if it's reflective of the fact that the market as a whole has been stuck. Okay, we were down about a 30% in the S&P this week. It feels like it was a non-event. We're up 1.7 from the lows the other day. Sounds great like we avoided this divot. On the other hand, we're at the levels we were at in late October, and below the service, it's been this push-pull. So just when everybody, I think, got bulled up on small caps, regional banks and the rest, you have a little bit of a reason to rethink it.

I'll put out the NASDAQ 100, kind of like a Mag 7 proxy. It's down to 25 times forward earnings. It's kind of the lowish end outside of the tariff panic for the last couple of. of years. So I wonder if maybe people are sniffing out value and defensiveness there. Oh, and also the algos probably sniffed that too. Without a doubt. It's all about the dispersion and what's going to work on one day versus another. Yeah. All right, well, we did see some big moves as well in the currency markets midday today, particularly in the yen versus the dollar. Rick Santelli joins us with more on all that. Hey, Rick. Hi, Mike, indeed. And you know, some late buying in the

Treasury complex pushed yields down for that 10 year. Close to the low yields of the week, and they settled at 422 last week. We're near unchanged. Look at an early December chart. You can see we're going into this Fed meeting a little bit higher. We broke out of the range. Why? Well, you see the other line on that chart.

That's the Japanese tenure. And indeed, the last Fed meeting, the day before it, we were at 419. Here we are about three or four basis points higher. No chance of a cut at least based on the markets. And foreign exchange, the yen after the bank of your budget. meeting soared against all the major currencies. This is a one week, the dollar yen versus the euro yen. You can see how the yen excelled on both sides of that trade.

And maybe some of that tough talk from the Bank of Japan and others after that meeting certainly seemed to have an effect on the market, Mike. And we think it was just tough talk, Rick, and the fact that they didn't move on rates. So people were talking about potential intervention as well. Well, I think it's the tough talk leading to potential intervention, but history dictates intervention by the Japanese and the Bank of Japan really hasn't worked historically. So I'm not sure this move's going to get legs, but we'll see and let it simmer and see how it looks next week. Yeah. All right, Rick, thanks. Let's get your setup for a huge week of tech earnings coming up.

As Christina had mentioned, Meta, Microsoft Tesla, and Apple all set to report. That's more than 17% of the entire S&P 500. Those names have been the four worst performing stocks of the Mac 7 so far in 2026, all underperforming the S&P and the NASAC 100, which MegaCap has more to prove. And which matters most of the markets, joining us now, Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management. Dan, great to have you with us. My pleasure. You are most excited about Apple, but it seems like they have to deliver a lot in order for you to be vindicated here. Bigger form factor.

or so an AI enabled iPhone. Yeah, and with Apple, it's more of a call for this year, not this quarter. I mean, obviously into this quarter, everybody's concerned about memory prices and what that does to forward margins. But I think services, I think, will be surprisingly good, and that has very strong margins. And so you may get a bit of an offset there. I think the quarter is fine. People are nervous, obviously, about the guidance.

But the real thing is if you think about this entire year and where Apple's come from, they're arguably two years late on AI, and you haven't had a really good phone in a while, and you're finally going to get a foldable iPhone at the end of this year, and it's going to be having an AI-enabled Siri. And if you look at the past, when you had the iPhone 6, for example, and you moved from a 4-inch screen to a 5-and-a-half-inch screen, revenues went from growing 7% in fiscal 14 to 28% fiscal 15. And don't forget, Samsung's had a foldable phone since 2019.

So Apple, as usual, is pretty late. But that's what I think drives actually for the first time in a long time, a pretty solid upgrade cycle. Is it a certainty in your view that Apple's margins get impacted by the high price of memory? I mean, you know, we see the memory stocks screaming higher, basically. every day, it seems. So is that a foregone conclusion that those who consume those memory chips that need them will pass that cost on? Yeah, I mean, Apple's going to get affected. But remember, Apple's buyers are also wealthier buyers.

And so Apple will try to pass those costs forward. And so I'm sure the gross margins, operating margins, will have a little bit of downward pressure. But that's why the stock's where it is. I think if you're thinking about the entire year, well, you should be getting excited about. is I may actually have a good product that I can buy relative to the Android ecosystem for the first time since AI came out and arguably before that. And so that's what makes Apple, I think, interesting for the year. And I think when they give the guidance, I think the quarter is going to be actually a very strong quarter, but I think when they give the guidance,

that'll kind of clear the decks for people to start thinking about the rest of the year. Dan, you know, we saw a little bit of a bounce in Microsoft, which, you know, it's a itself is looking cheap relative to the last couple of years. Nobody really loves the spenders right now. They're kind of using all their, what would be free cash flow to build data centers and all the rest of it. Do you see a, you know, kind of a contrarian opportunity in any of this, whether it's software more broadly or just others in the Mag 7? Well, it's going to be interesting to see how discerning people get on Microsoft because I think they're actually going to put up pretty solid numbers for one simple reason. If you look at Open AI, Open AI, Open

AI exited 2024 at about a $6 billion revenue run rate. They're exiting 2025 at about $20 billion. Their plan is to exit the year we're in at about $44 billion. And that really drives Azure. Now, the losses continue to grow like crazy. And remember, Microsoft owns about 27% of Open AI. So I think it's going to come down to do people look at, oh, well, the numbers all look great, or do they start to focus on, well, how's Open AI going to fund all these spending ambitions?

And that's really what's been affecting these two separate groups of stocks since late October, because the Google ecosystem since October 29th is up about 20% since that period year to date. The Open AI ecosystem, which includes SoftBank and Oracle, et cetera, that's down about 20% since October 29. So I think it's really going to come down to that. I actually like Microsoft into this because I think they've got more plays than just OpenAI, and they are actually generating a fair bit of cash. But to what Melissa brought up earlier, the memory costs going up a lot actually impacts them, and we saw this with Intel, where it is going to impact sales of PCs,

and that's very profitable, unlike Open AI business, for Microsoft through their, Windows franchise and office. So that's the one thing I'm wondering about in terms of their guidance for the March quarter. Microsoft is popular on the street. I mean, a lot of analysts on the street have buy ratings and they like it for the very same reasons that you do, Dan. But at the same time, the entire group has seen their valuations get compressed dramatically. And so even if Microsoft trades at a premium valuation to the group, it should still go lower. The evaluation has be brought down a bit. So how do you think about the valuation of Microsoft relative to what's going on with the group, given, you know, its presence in AI and sort of straddling the software

world and the hardware world? Well, let's step back for a second, because I think looking at this bigger picture makes a lot more sense versus one quarter because anything can happen the day after, right? If you think about where we were for the last three years up until late October, it was, everybody's going to win in AI. Don't worry about it by everything. Then in late October, people started to go, well, wait a second. Can Open AI fund $1.4 trillion in capital expenditures when they're only going to generate $20 billion in revenues exiting on a run rate basis this year with massive gargantuan losses?

And the bigger issue is that Google's proving that Gemini is the best product in consumer AI, and consumers have been trained by Google, you don't have to pay for results. So I think as you get towards the end of this year is going to become increasingly clear that, yes, Open AI's revenue is going to grow fast, but the losses are going to grow even faster. And I think at some point towards the end of this year, people are going to go, you know what, Google's going to win in consumer. And corporate, it's probably going to be more like anthropic on the private side and some combination of Microsoft and maybe Oracle. And I think OpenEI.E.I. going to get squeezed. And so that ecosystem of companies around OpenEI, I think, are going to have,

continue to have a lot of problems towards the end of this year. They're going to be able to raise the money that they want to raise near term because there's too many stakeholders that have too much invested in it. But ultimately, it's going to come down to who ends up winning. And as history is shown, in most technology transitions, you come out with one or two vertical winners, right? Amazon wins in e-commerce. Who's next? Nobody, really. Whatever about in search is just Google. What about in social? It's just meta. I think it's the same thing in AI. Well, where does meta fall in AI? Well, I think meta seems like it has the most to prove going into this quarter. Yeah, and the quarter I think is going to be great. That's not the problem. The problem is they're going to enter a market with meta compute and that where they're going to go up against Google, Amazon, Microsoft and now Oracle as well. I think that's a tough road for them to hoe. And so I don't want anything.

to do with meta, even though I think, yeah, are they going to have great numbers? Absolutely. But we've seen what happens with Oracle. If it's just about the numbers, Oracle stock wouldn't be down over 40 percent from its highs in just three or four months, right? So with meta, I think it's a similar situation where when they talked about, oh, we're going to have meta compute and go after sovereign AIs, I'm going, well, you and four other humongous guys who have much more experience in this. So that's why even though it looks cheap, I think the number is going to be great. I'd rather stay away from that one for that reason. Dan, thanks. Good to see you. Dan Niles. Thank you. All right, well, sticking with Tech, take a look at AMD closing higher for the ninth

straight day. That's its longest winning streak since 2019. The stock is up 28% over that period of time. It's forward P.E. Now around 46. Invidia, of course, on that massive base is about 26. times forward. Another record-breaking day in the commodities complex, silver surging. Gold coming ever so close to a new milestone. Pippa Stevens is here to take us inside the numbers. Pippa. Hey, Melissa, well, gold got so close to the $5,000 level topping out today at 4,991. That is a record. Silver crossing above 100 for the first time ever as the momentum and retail focused trade continues. Now, think of America saying a fundamentally justified silver price is more like $60, but said retail investors could drive the medal to 170 within two years. Moving over to Nat Gas, adding another

5% today, closing out the week up 52%, I should say. That is the best week on record, and we should expect more price volatility as the storm hits the U.S. Now, Henry Hub, of course, is the largest benchmark, but we are seeing much higher prices in regional markets. Algonquan City Gates, that is the delivery point for the Northeast doubling overnight, hitting 26. Chicago City Gate for the Midwest, that's at 21. Transco Zone 6, New York City power prices almost at 20, and Ventura out in Iowa, expecting frigid temperatures. They're seeing prices at nearly 70 bucks. Now, power prices are also in focus ahead of the storm. Duke Energy among the utilities warning about possible issues, saying customers in the Carolinas should be prepared for potentially extended outages.

Ice is very important here. You can have all the supply you need, but if ice accumulates on lines and weighs them down, they're going to have issues. Mike? For sure. Pippa, thank you. So how much further can these commodities run? Joining us now is Helen Amos. She is commodity strategist at BMO and head of the metals research desk there. And Helen, great to have you chime in here. I mean, silver, just to take the first and most conspicuous one, amazing price momentum. The persistence of this move has been remarkable. Where does it sit relative to the underlying supply demand? Yeah, hi, and good afternoon. It's great to be here today. Look, simply put, I mean, the way I'm seeing at the moment with precious metals generally,

you know, silver included, but essentially investors are being bombarded with a constant flow of new risks and unknowns, almost on a daily basis, if not hourly now. So, you know, this is putting investors in a state of alarm, alarm about the world order, alarm about policy uncertainty, over global trade, monetary fiscal policy. institutional independence. So with that, metals, so silver included, but specifically the precious metals complex, this is now being seen as like the last safe port and the storm, I suppose. And, you know, not just that, but we're seeing demand pulling hard from all regions together. And that's what makes this metals rally so remarkable in my view, and perhaps more sustaining

than the previous one we had. Demand is very broad-based this time. There's no doubt about that. There's no shortage also, though, of kind of stories that are now in the air about why this is happening, right? So there's a lot of issues of stockpiling, and maybe China's not going to allow silver to leave. And, you know, there's even a backup at silver refiners as people want to sell scrap. So it's a fast-moving situation. But even though there's kind of a broadly supportive fundamental picture, clearly there's some limit to price or at least some limit to price with silver. relative to gold?

Yeah, possibly. I mean, the thing about metals is that, you know, demand is very quick moving, but supply is very slow to move. And so essentially mine supply, you know, it takes years, if not decades, to bring on a new mine. And secondary supply to recycling is also slow moving.

So that's why, you know, when you look at the history of commodity prices relative to other assets, you do see a lot of volatility. And when they rally, they rally hard. Now, one thing that's happening, I would say specifically in some metals like silver is that we've got the retail crowd in as well. So, you know, it was the fundamentals that initially started the trade.

You know, we saw the silver market being in deficit for several years. And what's happened this time that hasn't happened in previous cycles like that is that investors are buying into this tightness. So we're seeing ETF inflows. Investors are wanting to add exposure and that's only just pushing the momentum higher. So we would, you know, caution about. saying that we're, you know, going to reach the top anytime soon. Momentum, you know, CTAs, they all play a very big role, particularly in silver, too. The retail push is really

interesting, Helen, because that tells me that the, you know, the people holding silver might have some weak hands there and that this sort of all feeds into this idea that silver's become a meme trade. Are you concerned about that, the fast flood of retail money that could just come out quickly? Yeah, certainly, I think it's a little bit of a concern. I think the stickiness of those hands all depends on what they think the intrinsic value of silver is. Now, the gold silver ratio has just smashed down to about 50. The last five, ten years, it's been more like 80, 90. But the thing is, if you look back far enough in times, they're going back decades and decades, you know, into the mid-1900s,

you actually see a much lower gold silver price ratio. And there is a chance that there are some investors that are looking at the changes that we're seeing in the world right now. the changes to the world order and I'm thinking in very long time frame. So that's what makes this forecasting a very difficult exercise. Yeah, extremes in

markets can always get more extreme. Good reminder. Helen Amos of Bimo, thank you. Thank you. Coming up, despite several attempts, the S&P 500 has failed to crack the 7,000 level. Today, the index closing at 6915. That's below its best level from late

October. So why is the index stuck around here. We'll look at the charts coming up on overtime. Today, the S&P 500 finally outperforming the Russell 2000 after 14 straight sessions. But since the S&P hit what was then an intraday high of around 6920 back in October, it has gone nowhere. In fact, closing below that level today. Let's get a technician's take on this three-month stallout, joining us now as Fairlead Strategies, founder and managing partner, Katie Stockton. Katie, good to see you. So this flattening out period after a very strong run,

on what's your read on it? Obviously, plenty going on, you know, below the surface of that index. Yeah, I really think it's all about the tech sector. So since late October, we have seen underperformance from large-cap technology. And of course, that's yielded a loss of intermediate term momentum behind the S&P 500. So I do think that it shows the strength or the impact of technology behind the market and what was a very strong uptrend, really up until that October peak. The loss of intermediate term momentum, I would argue, has been weathered really very well. I mean, we've even seen higher lows since that November low. So it hasn't been dramatic downside, really more just a consolidation phase, very close to all-time highs, in fact,

for the major indices. But it is certainly a change in character of the market. So it shows how important these large-cap tech names are to the upside. For sure. And what's your call on whether, in fact they will resume any kind of leadership. There was a little bit of a hint of that today. We've seen a couple of these phases in the last couple of years where, you know, for a while, let's say the NASDAQ 100 will underperform the equal weight S&P by, you know, even 20 percentage points and then rebound. Right. I think it is a corrective phase that should at least culminate in an oversold bounce. We already saw that in the last couple of days from the mega caps.

The mega cap complex is starting to report earnings next week. And as you probably well know, they're largely oversold coming into these earnings reports. Apple came down to that 243 support level. If Melissa is listening, we had talked about that before. Meta came down to some support based on the cloud model that was quite important and has gapped off of that support. And even Microsoft today showing signs of life after holding around 450. So these are key support levels and oversold indications that we have near them.

So I do think that we could at least narrowly to the mega caps see a brief phase of outperformance or a recovery rally in relative terms that could perhaps get the major indices out of this consolidation phase, but perhaps also maybe just temporarily. Because the loss of intermediate term momentum has led to down ticks in our monthly gauges that tell us that Q1 will probably see a significant correction. So we have a hint of that from our longer term gauges. And with that in mind, we're going to continue to watch support levels as risk metrics, and that for the S&P, we're watching about 6720. And for the NASDAQ 100 index, we continue to watch about 25,000. Those levels are both based on our cloud model on a short-term basis. And honestly, they're not very strong support levels.

So if we come at them with downside momentum, perhaps on the back of this relief rally that we're expecting, that could be problematic, meaning indicative of a significant. significant corrective phase. So even if temporarily a mega-cap tech comes back and has a bounce, Katie, does that mean necessarily that the things that had benefited from tech's sort of malaise will fall? I mean financials, small caps, what does it mean for that broadening out trade? It's a really good question because we do in the Russell 2000 index have some signs of short-term upside exhaustion.

I think it's a great example of where the relative performance has come from. year to date and that includes selected areas within financials as well. So I think that would be a natural thing to see at least consolidation perhaps as the focus turns back to tech and back to the mega caps, let those financials that have run up and the small caps that have run up digest their gains in either a consolidation phase or a pullback. And then perhaps that becomes the start of an opportunity to add exposure because we do think the rotations that we've seen year to date are pretty meaningful. The Russell versus the S&P 500 has reversed a downtrend line in the ratio going back to early 2023. And it suggests that the phase of outperformance that we see, and that really began back in

August is meaningful. And in 2026 could be more of a year that favors small caps. Yeah. Maybe one year after everyone thought that might be in 2025. We get the reality of it. Katie, thanks. There's a chance. Yeah. Well, roughly half the country is in the path of a major winter storm this weekend. How bad is it going to get? We'll get an updated forecast. Plus, shares of intel plummeting after results and after a strong run to start the year. Up next, we'll take a look at some other hot stocks facing proven moments when they report next week.

We're right back. A massive winter storm is set to hit more than half the U.S. this weekend, bringing heavy snow, ice, and extremely low temperatures. At least 172 million people across the country are under some form of winter weather warning. Let's bring in Jeff Cornish, acuether meteorologist. Hello, Jeff. Hey there, Mike. We're dealing with some widespread problems. This is going to be the biggest, most high impact winter storm for areas east of the Rockies in several years. Over 200 million of us affected by this in a big way. It's going to essentially shut down travel east of the Rockies into early next week. Freezing rain will be a huge problem beginning tonight in Dallas, expanding east

into Atlanta and places like Charlotte, North Carolina later this weekend. And we're concerned about hundreds of thousands without power. Heavy snow north of there, Oklahoma City to Maine, and many, many areas in between here with heavy snow. And, well, this is going to be a big impact into the natural gas markets here. Huge blast of Arctic chill to hold on after this with record cold. That's a big problem for anybody who loses power into Texas to the Carolinas through early next week. So here's the ice zone. We're very concerned about the freezing rain and some sleep, but the freezing rain is what glazes the power lines at eight pounds per gallon. Water's heavy is going to weigh down the branches. They'll

snap, taking out power for many. Snow, widespread swath is six to 12 inches from the southern plains through the northeast. And if we zoom into the northeast here, over a foot of snow in Boston, Scranton, Harrisburg, PA. We're forecasting something close to eight inches in New York City. There could be a little sleet that mixes in at the end of the storm. Back to you. Jeff, thank you. Did you hear that eight inches in New York City?

I saw that eight inches. It seems like the betters than the Calchie prediction markets are thinking it's going to be a little heavier than that. The over-under is kind of migrating around a foot. So for 46 cents on the dollar, you could bet above 12 inches. If you want to sell above 12 inches, you get 55 cents. So that seems to be aware of the break-even is. But it's interesting to see across different betting platforms or prediction platforms, how they get down to it.

It's two inches, every two inches. Polymarket was a lot. You can bet on a two-inch range. Yeah, exactly. So maybe no sports this weekend, but you can bet on snow. Well, you can watch sports this week. You can watch sports, yeah. All right, well, time for a CBC news update with Julia Borsden. Hi, Julia.

Hey, Mike, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmor and Prince Harry, joining in criticism of President Trump following his claim that troops from non-U.S. NATO countries stayed, quote, a little off the front lines in Afghanistan. Starmor demanded the president apologize and called the remarks insulting, while Prince Harry said sacrifices made by NATO forces should be spoken about with respect. Britain lost 457 service personnel in Afghanistan. California Governor Gavin Newsom announced today his state will join the world health organization's global outbreak alert and response network. It comes one day after the United States officially withdrew from the WHO. Newsom says California is the first state to join the network. And the Republican National Committee is moving forward with plans to hold a midterm

Republican convention. According to Politico, an amendment was approved today. at the RNC's winter meeting with no objections. Democrats have also reportedly been considering the possibility. The conventions would potentially give both parties a chance to make their case to voters as they fight for control of Congress. Back over to you. Julia, thanks, Julia Borson.

Well, markets lower for the second straight week after a hot start to 2026. A huge news week is looming the Fed and some major earnings. Will that be enough to get stocks back on the path of record highs? That is next on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. down 285 points today, the S&P 500 up just two points. The NASDAQ up a quarter of a percent. They're also 2,000. By far, the worst performing index today, snapping its 14-session head-to-head winning streak against the S&P 500. All those averages closing lower on the week.

It was a good week for the emerging markets trade with the ETF, the EEM, hitting in all-time highs. Investors continue to jump into foreign markets. The MSCI emerging markets ETF is on track for its biggest monthly inflow since its inception in 2012. It is now outperforming. the S&P by the most since March. Our next guest says the model suggests these trends could continue. Joining me now is Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research. Tim, it's good to see you. Thanks, Mike. Talk about your broad framework coming into this year. I mean, we're coming off of three strong years for the equity markets. Obviously, the trends are good, but you suggest maybe it's a maturing bull market. So what's the basic bottom line for you?

Well, it's a mature bull market, and that it's, most bull markets don't last this long. In fact, this bull market, if you go back to history all the way to 1900, it's lasted twice as long as the median. In fact, it's the ninth-longest bull market. So it's gotten pretty mature. It's also, when you have that long-bubal market, it enables sentiment to get very optimistic. So the market's gotten very complacent. Underneath the surface, the breadth has been very weak. We haven't had that kind of strong momentum that you want to see to kind of give you that another leg higher.

So I think the market's pretty vulnerable right here, and we'll see how it does next week when the earnings come out. And in terms of the global picture, it would seem as if breadth, at least in terms of the number of markets that are performing well, is looking pretty good. So where would you emphasize? Well, yeah, especially when you think about emerging markets, is that that's where we've seen very good breadth. And really, if you think about what happened about a year ago, two kind of consistent developments happened. And one was, well, the inauguration of Trump, and then the other was when the Deep Seek AI program was announced. And that was really, it became a turning point for EM. And after that point, the U.S. started to really underperform, worried about the tariff impact.

We had the Liberation Day. You had the Taco Trade comeback, but that lasted about two months, and the U.S. stalled out. Throughout that time, and merchant markets did very well, they held their own and actually really started to accelerate. And you really saw things separate around the end of October when Medek announced it. and that sort of became the beginning of a big problem for big tech big cap tech and EM then continue to benefit the relatively attractive valuations of the tech stocks in EM, not just deep seek but throughout that area and we pointed out how the medium PE of the top EEM stocks has been so much lower than the median PE of the US tech stocks.

So that together with also another trend that's helped EM is that currencies, EM currencies have come back. It's really helped markets like Brazil have participated. South Africa benefiting from the commodities and materials emphasis in that market. And so it has been very broad. It's not just, it's really been Pacific benefiting from the tech theme, you know, Taiwan, Korea, as well as markets that are benefiting from the materials come back here with metals doing as well as they are. For Taiwan and Korea, it's, that's heavily leveraged to semiconductors.

And so does the U.S. semiconductor trade have to work? Does the U.S. AI trade have to work on some level in order for those markets to continue? Well, I think what we've seen, which is interesting. If you look at the tech, tech sector for EM, it's been making new highs. It's up 20% over the last 21 days. And meanwhile, the EM's been the weakest, the tech sector's been the weakest in the U.S. So I think we're we can, it's not necessarily the people are getting out of tech. It's really more about transitioning into better valued tech, which you'll find outside of the U.S. I think that's kind of what we're going to continue to see. You guys sort of have the mantra of, you know, don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed. So the tape is maybe a little bit, you know, it's still got something to prove. Fed maybe going to get a little bit lower here. So what are you watching in that direction? Well, certainly the Fed is one of the positive.

In fact, we're being that we do follow that, don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed. We're maintaining a modest overweight to equity. Okay. So we haven't yet, we're not yet saying it's time to get out. The market's kind of trying to work its way higher. And let's see either we get a renewed momentum once we get the, the earnings coming out soon or we're going to get more disappointment after two very good earning seasons that, you know, I think the market's expectations are that we're going to

have another good earning season. If that doesn't happen, well, that becomes sort of a driver of contingent selling. All right. So it has a little bit to prove in the next little while here. Tim, good to see you. Thank you. You see, Mike. Thank you. Coming up, CNBC spoke with top executives from all the major drug makers at the JPMorgan Health Care Conference. We'll tell you where they are forecasting, or what they're forecasting, for the obesity drug market and what it means for investors. Stay tuned. Welcome back to overtime.

We highlighted the move higher in Moderna in the last few days today, trading in the opposite direction. The stock breaking a four-day winning streak over which it gained more than 30 percent. Despite the move lower, it is still on pace for its best months since 2021. No clear catalyst for the move. The CEO did say yesterday it does not plan to invest in new late-stage vaccine trials because of the blowback on immunizations in the United States. Let's stick with health care here.

Novo Nordis Squigovy pill is off to a strong start, hitting 18,000 prescriptions in its second week here in the United States, according to data from IQVIA. This as the race to dominate the weight loss drug space heats up. CNBC.com's Annika Kim Constantino spoke to some of the industry's top executives at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. She joins us now with her takeaways. I mean, these guys are like the bells of the ball last week. Right, definitely. Well, first of all, good to see you guys, and thanks so much for having me today. And so this story is based on conversations I had with some of these top executives from names like Eli Lilly and Nova Nordisk, but also some emerging obesity names like Pfizer, Structure Therapeutics, and also a new obesity biotech called Wave Life Sciences.

And so what I heard from these executives is that, you know, these weekly injections that we have on the market are really just the tip of the iceberg here. And so what they really think is going to define the future of the GLP1 market is a broad set of treatment options that can be individualized and personalized to a patient, rather. than this sort of one-size-fits-all approach. And so that might be, you know, the pill options that we're seeing now, like the Wagovi pill pill you talked about, or injections that promote even greater weight loss than what we've seen on the market or combination regimens. But there's some concern, though, that as we do get some of these new treatments, especially the orals, that is just going to cannibalize sales with a shot.

I mean, that was one concern raised by ever-coracized, Uma Raphat in his note today, that you're going to see some cannibalization. The other part of it is an oral pill because you can get in so many different ways and so easily, and the price point is so low that it's much more of a consumer product. And that's harder to model out into somebody's earnings forecasts. Right. So that's a great point to add. So what's important to note is that when I've talked to executives at these companies and also some analysts, they also point out that, you know, for some patients, injections are going to remain the best option for

them. So what's, you know, what you have to note here with the pills is that they're not proven to be more effective than the injections, like based on these separate clinical trials. I think with the Wagovi pill, it's around the same percentage weight loss as we've seen with the injection. But with Eli Lilly's pill, it's even less than that. And so, you know, they're going to have patients that want to see that sort of 20% level weight loss with the Zepound and may prefer that. And when I talk to obesity medicine specialists, they say, you know, at the end of the day, we're still going to prescribe these injections.

We may not opt for the pill, but maybe someone with a modest, who needs like modest weight loss or has a lower BMI, that's going to be the right fit for them to get that pill. Do these executives have a sense of just how penetrated this market is at this point in terms of the likely candidates to actually take any of these forms at this point? I mean, is it basically saturated or is it, you know, 10% saturated? No, thank you so much for asking that. And so, you know, when I talk to executives, they said that these pills are really going to reach entirely new patients. Because when you think about it, there are a lot of people that have been waiting for an option like this. Maybe they're afraid of an injection.

Maybe they viewed injections as more like more of a serious treatment for them. to take. And they also point out that, you know, this is really going to, you know, tap into the primary care population, aka primary care doctors who prefer to prescribe pills or are more comfortable working with these pills. So they definitely think that there's much more patients that they can access with these pills, especially as we see lilies enter the market as well. Annaica, thanks. Thank you so much, guys. And for the full story, go to CNBC.com. Coming up, nearly half of the companies in the Dow are reporting results next week, along with the fifth of the S&P.

We'll look ahead to a trio of bellwetheas with Boeing, Caterpillar, and UPS on deck. Outside of tech, some big nameset to report next week. Stocks, which have been outperforming in the past three months, let's break out three of them. Phil LeBoe on Boeing, Simomodi, taking a look at Caterpillar and Frank Holland breaking down UPS. Let's kick it off with Boeing, which reports on Tuesday.

It's up about 17% since its last earnings report. Phil, what should we be looking for? Well, there's three things that are going to stand out that people will be focused on. terms of not only the fourth quarter, but 2026. First of all, look at this stock since November 21st. Talk about ripping higher up 40 percent since November 21st. It's been a heck of a move for Boeing. In terms of what investors are grabbing onto and pushing it higher, first of all, you have the question of 2026 deliveries. Are they expected to increase? Yes, they are expected to increase.

You've got 737 max production, which is also increasing. And then you've also got 2026, two new max airplanes, two derivatives of the 737 max. They're expected to be certified as you take a look at a one-year chart. Remember, free cash flow is what it's all about. And as deliveries increase, guys, so does free cash flow. Yep, been the story for a while. It's finally coming back. Phil, thank you very much. Let's turn to Caterpillar reporting on Thursday. It was the best performing Dowstock in 2025 and continuing to outperform this year. Sima Modi is looking at that name for us. Hi, Seema. Yeah, Michael, Caterpillar has certainly been on. a hot streak as data center developers increasingly rely on the company's backup generators and

solar turbines to solve the whole power scarcity issue. In fact, the power channel checks conducted by Bank of America found that Caterpillar is part of every conversation. And then there's the industrial team at Jeffries. They're labeling Caterpillar, their top pick for 2026, noting that the company's runway for power gen growth is strong, though probably mostly priced in with a stock up over 60% in 2025. It's also continued this momentum into 2026. So guys, going into earnings, the bar is very high. Investors want to know three things. How is CEO Joe Creed capitalizing on this growing demand from hypers? To what degree is it expanding its factories

and facilities and ramping up capacity plus tariffs? That's always been a hit. How is that challenging the company's ability to procure certain industrial parts? Well, it's already announced its biggest factory spend, correct? on a plant in Lafayette, Indiana. So it's already proving that it's going to ramp up capacity. When does that expect it to be online? Are we going to get updates on that? That's the update we need from Joe Creed.

When the earnings report comes out next week? When does that facility come to be fully operational? And actually, you know, a lot of analysts are saying that specific ramp up is not enough. Given the type of demand that hypers need right now to solve this whole power scarcity issue, so many of them want to own the whole energy equation when they're building these data. center. So getting access to more backup generators, that's the key. What else can they do is a question. I mean, Seema, the market loves these stocks where they kind of combine a bunch of the favorite themes in there. And I just wonder how many years forward is Caterpillar willing to say that

the sort of data center tailwind is going to continue? It's many years. It's about five to seven years that they're predicting demand to continue to ramp for energy equipment. So for them, this is a opportunity and as you guys have noted, it's completely changed the narrative around this company from mining and construction to one that is clearly playing a role in this whole AI infrastructure buildout. Yeah, Seema, thanks, Sima Modi. And finally, let's get to UPS. That report's up 22% since its last report. Frank Holland has more on that one for us. Hey, Frank. Well, you know, Melissa, that big upside move has been on investor confidence. The freight market is strengthening, but some comments from CSX earnings, they may be one factor that's weighing on the stock today

and the rest of the transports. Executives from CSX making some very interesting comments, like many of our customers are carefully controlling freight spend as they manage through tariffs and inflation. They also said that there's no short-term catalyst on the horizon to lift the major industrial markets. So UPS would have to paint a very different picture to keep shares moving higher,

especially with the estimates forecasting. Its U.S. domestic revenues falling 6% year-over-year and its supply chain revenues falling 10% year-over-year. Earnings are also expected to fall 20% year-over-year as the company reduces Amazon volume, with the goal of cutting it in half by June. However, UPS is also judged by margin as a proxy for the efficiency of their network,

and UPS is expected to see the best margin in four quarters. If that happens, that can be a big boost to stock. All right, Frank, thanks. Frank Holland. No dearth of news for next week. No, it's going to be a ton next week. In fact, you can almost attack in the action today, a little bit of like bracing for maybe we got some weekend news too

because we've had to deal with that. Basically, you know, go back a couple of weeks, it was the Powell attack. and then last week it was Greenland. One unique thing maybe going into next week is the bar has been lowered for big cap tech earnings. Yes. In a way that typically it hasn't been the case in recent quarters. Exactly.

I think over the weekend, too, Japan will be in focus. That big move in the yen. Exactly. So when we see proof of intervention, we see any more action over the weekend, there seems to be a little bit of wait and see on that as well. For sure. And it's feeding into this prevailing trend of dollar weakness, which we can kind of come up with any number of reasons for. But the dollar index this week was down 1.7 percent.

That's a pretty big move, you know, obviously for a broad currency index. So we'll see if we get anything on that front. So the macro has been erratic. By the way, U.S. Economic Surprise Index is at one of its highest levels in the last couple of years. So in other words, the domestic economy continues to kind of redeem the optimist point of view. We'll see if that continues. All right. That's going to do it for overtime.

Fast money begins right after this quick break.