Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: IMAX CEO on Avatar; Gold & Silver Set Fresh Records 12/22/25

Episode Date: December 22, 2025

Carol Schleif of BMO Private Wealth and Bob Doll of Crossmark Global Investments on positioning, risk appetite, and what’s driving sentiment. Bart Melek of TD Securities explains the forces moving oil, metals, and broader raw-material markets. Rich Gelfond, CEO of IMAX, on the box office outlook. Michelle Caruso Cabrera examines oil tankers, Venezuela, and the geopolitics shaping energy flows, before Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial breaks down options activity and market positioning. The show closes with a global equity lens from Kei Okamura of Neuberger Berman on Japanese stocks. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, that's the end of regulation. Global X ETS screening the closing belt, the New York Stock Exchange, KMK Financial, doing the honors of the NASDAQ. We'll be talking to them a little bit later this hour. Stocks higher. Risk on. S&P and NASAC up for the third straight session, the Russell 2000, the outperformer today. With today's gains, the S&P 500 is less than 1% from a fresh all-time high. Financials, materials, and energy were the leaders. In fact, all the sector, were higher except for Staples. That was the only sector to end in the red. The big action was in the commodities today. Gold, silver, copper, all hitting new highs. Gold and silver now tracking for their best years since 1979. Oil also jumping on supply concerns after the U.S. intercepted

an oil tanker in the international waters off the coast of Venezuela. A lot swirling there with geopolitics and that blockade. And Bitcoin losing its earlier gains, ending in the red. It did cross back above $90,000 this morning. That's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan. John Ford is off today. Ahead after coming into December on the defense,

the AI trade seems to be finding its footing with the NASAC 100 back in the green for the month. Will it last? Plus, forget the mag seven. Gold and silver have outperformed all of them. Will that be the best trade for 2026? And from dinosaurs to witches to blocks and the zoo, it was a big year for the box office

is sending shares of IMAX up 45% We're going to talk to the CEO about the big screen in what's left of this year and into next. Markets, though, kicking off the short holiday trading week with gains in a broad-based rally. Everything from AI names to banks to retailers, industrials getting a bump. Can this broadening out continue into 2026? Well, joining us now, Carol Schlefe from BMO Private Wealth and Bob Dahl from Crossmark Global Investments. It's great to have you both here. And Carol, I will start this conversation with you.

How does this set us up for 2026? Well, clearly, markets seem to be indicating that there's a lot of things going on underneath in the economy that would vote positively. And it's amazing when you think about it because you look at all the challenges that businesses face this year. And it turns out they didn't need clarity after all in order to perform and generate earnings and revenue and have some really solid stories. We do think that that broadening out continues and allows markets to continue to do well,

especially the growth trade going into 2026. Bob, I'll ask you the same question, especially since you are reflecting back on your 10 predictions for the market here in 2025. And from what I can tell, you did pretty well with those predictions. Yeah, we did okay, Morgan. Could have been a little more constructive.

We were a little too cautious, as many people were. But after that 20% decline in late winter, early spring, then we get the 40% run up. It's been an amazing year, but of a bit of a bit of, roller coaster. Look, a lot of momentum heading into the new year in terms of earnings. And the Fed seems not to want to do anything other than Stan Pat and maybe lower rates again. That combination is always good for the market. Carol, I mean, S&P right now as it stands on track

for 17% gain this year. That's the third straight year of double-digit percentage gain. So when you do look to 2026, what power stocks from here? And are those? types of gains still sustainable? When have we seen this type of trajectory in history? Well, I think the first thing to level set is when you go back and you run the numbers from, say, the 1970s forward, the average bull market runs about five years. So we're still pretty early on. We published a couple weeks ago a chart that shows you are here relative to a lot of those other gains. But fundamentally, there's a lot going on too, because there's a lot of the most constructive portions of the one big beautiful bill passed the summer

that are just coming to fruition. You've got some bits of clarity around tariff policy. You've got a lot of things going on with the consumer that should help with some of the back tax refunds. And you've got deregulation and a real focus from this administration on trying to drive business forward and remove the barriers, if you will. So if companies in the markets performed as well as they did last year with all of the uncertainties in the beginning,

now we've got some of that clarity and fundamental underpinnings. And earnings supported where valuations went this year, or they supported where stock prices went this year. Bob, does this rotation continue? And if so, where do you want to be in 2026? Well, I think the confusion around leadership is going to continue. First, it's the MAG 7. Then we had the broadening, the 493. Last few weeks, the MAG 7 are coming on again.

So I think it's going to be alternating back and forth and confusing. For the direction of the market, watch earnings, watch the Fed. The Fed stands pat, and earnings continue to advance, hard to knock this market off. However, I'd point out out of the other side of my mouth, stocks have only gone up four times in a row in a double-digit percentage once in the last 100 years. Let's hope we can repeat that. Oh, wow. Okay.

Carol, when we talk about this rotation, you've seen a rotation under the hood in the AI trade, too. Does that continue? Yeah, I do think it does because we've got some broadening in that trade, and it's not just about all things AI all the time. time. You've also got a lot of things, as was noted in the previous segment. You've got quantum stocks moving. You've got space stocks moving. You've got a lot of optimism going. We've got an IPO market that was locked up through the government shutdown because we had stuff set to go and it's not coming over your end, but you'll have some optimism there too. And an administration that is

more favorable to big M&A. And that all helps support markets and help support people looking at where else is their value that might be second or third generation relative to that big AI trade that's been the focus of the last year or two. Okay. Carol Schlefe and Bob Dahl. Thanks for kicking off the hour with me with all the major averages higher today to start this shortened holiday trading week. Maybe a little Santa Claus rally starting early here.

Technically kicks off on Wednesday. Well, it's commodities trade that has taken over in the last two months. So if we shift from stocks to commodities, gold and silver hitting new records, today, both basing for the best year since 1979. Copper is also at new highs. It's having its best year since 2009. Will the commodity run-up continue in 2026? Well, joining us now. TD Securities Global Head of Commodity Strategy, Bart Malik. Bart, it's great to have you on. And I want to start right there, because it's been such a torrid year, whether it's precious metals or industrial metals, does it continue? Well, great to be here. Certainly, we think

that gold in the first half of... 2026 will likely continue. We're looking at a quarterly high of $4,400, which implies a trading high about 46, 47 plus. And we think that this trade based on lower Fed funds as we move into the 2026 continues to happen, steepening of the yield curve, and inflation I think will remain stubbornly above the 2% target. At the same time, central banks around the world are betting on this whole trade associated with reduced value of the US dollar. We're seeing investors trying to remix their portfolios from this traditional 6040 to now include

as much as 25% exposure in commodities, which includes gold, silver, oil, copper, and and some of the other major commodities. Are you a believer in the debasement trade? I mean, I realize a lot of folks have made a lot of money on it this year and it certainly makes sense to hedge your bets here. When I hear numbers like 25% in commodities in a portfolio, and I look at where the dollar is, and yes, it came off this year, but it's starting to come back.

I just wonder what kind of legs this has. Well, I think for now it's very, very much on top of mind, But realistically, the economy is slowing, somewhat employment numbers are eroding. The implication here is we're probably going to see less inflationary pressure. And it's very likely that some of the most aggressive tariff actions taken against U.S. trading partners are going to be mitigated to some degree, particularly on some of the precious metals, other inputs like aluminum and copper. think at these levels it sounds sustainable.

So inflation may very well start training lower as well because of those factors. And you know, the Fed is unlikely to be overly aggressive on the easing, you know, certainly this is what Mr. Powell is signaling to the market. But realistically, we will have somebody new in May 2026, and we will probably continue to have a White House that is, you know, maybe not interfering. legally, but we'll probably try to pressure the Fed to be as accommodative as it can. So the economy is likely going to be tried to be geared up hot. We're going to see the Fed tilting towards the maximum employment part of their mandate.

So I think partially that trade remains, but to have 25% exposure in commodities out of the hundreds of trillions of dollars that are now sitting in equities and fixed income, That's probably not possible, and that would blow up the entire commodity market. All right. I mean, the main commodity that has not contributed to this, this is bull market for the asset class this year has been crude. I realize it perked up with geopolitics, Venezuela, also arguably perhaps some question marks about whether a deal, a peace deal can be reached in Ukraine, higher or lower in 2026 when you look at something like WTI? I think it's a mixed answer. I think probably around current levels, maybe even lower in the first part of the year.

But then I think we're looking at somewhat firmer fundamentals. And that has to do with the fact that, you know, in the second half towards the third and fourth quarters, we're going to see non-OPEC producers probably, you know, peter out in production. We're going to see continued Chinese importation of oil, maybe as much as, again, a million barrels a day to the strategic reserve, and we are very, very short here. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the market gets tired of being too short, and we do see better things to come in the latter part of 2026. But it's going to be challenging for sure in the early part of the year. Okay, Bart. Thank you. My pleasure.

Well, the latest Avatar movie coming in well short of opening weekend estimates, at least here in North America. Up next, the CEO of IMAX on whether that's a warning for the box office in 2026, that stock is up 46% this year. Plus, after a rough start to December, the NASDAQ 100 is now green month to date coming up. Should you be on the return of the AI trade? And if so, how do you play it? We're going to discuss that overtime's back in two. Welcome back to overtime Warner Bros. Discovery shares popping today after Paramount Skydance and Medits its offer for the media giant. While Paramount isn't raising as $30 per share cash offer, Larry Ellison, the father of, excuse me, CEO David Ellison, is personally guaranteeing more than $40 billion in equity financing.

Concerns about the Ellison family funding. The deal was one of the reasons Warner Brothers boarded. rejected the offer in favor of Netflix's bid. Paramount is also matching Netflix's nearly $6 billion fee that it would have to pay if regulators were to block a merger. You can see shares of Netflix down 1%. Paramount and Warner Brothers both up today. Let's stay with media, though, because Disney's Avatar, Fire and Ash,

bringing in about $90 million over the weekend in the domestic box office. That was lower than analysts expected. About halfway between the first and second film's openings, but this one did much better for IMAX, delivering the biggest opening weekend of the year, fifth biggest in IMAX history, according to the company.

SAC is up 46% so far this year. Joining me now is IMAX CEO Richard Gelfand. Richard, it's great to have you on. Nice to be with you, Morgan. So we just talked about an opening weekend that was less than analyst expectations, but it was strong for IMAX. Walk me through it.

Well, I think the world is really, if anything, was proven in 25 in a couple of years before that people are, seeking out premium experiences, especially for Blockbuster-type movies, and Avatar and IMAX kind of have a great history together. Our two biggest films of all time are Avatar, well, two of the three are Avatar One and Avatar Two. So I think a lot of people seek out IMAX. We did, our indexing was even better on this one than it was on Way of Water, the last one. We did about 15% of the domestic box office and about 13% of the global box office for

way of water. We were closer to 12% of domestic and lower as well for international. So I think when it's a big blockbuster and particularly when it's Avatar, people want to see it in IMAX. It makes a difference. It's the filmmaker's vision of the way people should see it. And it's spectacular. Is the takeaway there then that you're continuing to gain market share of the current box office, even if the current box office isn't growing more broadly? Yeah, I

think that is the takeaway Morgan. As a matter of fact, before Avatar open, this had already been a record year for IMAX in our almost 60 year history. So over the last several years since the pandemic,

our indexing and our market share has been growing. very nicely. And I think people, when they leave the home, they just want something different than they could get in the home. And I think IMAX really shows that. And, you know, as I said, record year,

but we're predicting next year will be even a bigger year. It's a year with fantastic movies starting with Avatar, and then among other things, it goes in to Star Wars. It goes in to the Odyssey and the Odyssey

Prologue is on the front of Avatar, then you've got Dune 3, you've got Greta Gerwig's Narnia. So, I mean, things are going very well for us. So looking at 2026, and I guess the box office more broadly and how picky, perhaps, consumers have been, do you think 2026 continues to build off of the momentum in 2025? As I said, for IMAX, I have no question. We guided to $1.4 billion in 26, which is up from 25. And I think even the general box office, the theatrical box office, people are predicting an increase. But I do think there's kind of a fracture in the market where for special movies, people want special experiences and particularly filmmakers.

So when you, again, going to 26, you've got great filmmakers like Christopher Nolan, you got Deney Villanou, you've got Greta Gerwig, you've got John Favreau. So when they release their movies, they want it to be special. They want their vision. They want people to see the way they want to make it. And I think audiences are responding to that. So I do want to get your thoughts on these latest twists and turns regarding Warner Brothers. and the battle that is for that company.

What does it mean for IMAX? What does it mean for theatrical windows? What does it mean for future pipeline of content creation? So starting with IMAX that, you know, this is the third time I promised the last, Morgan, that I'll say we're just coming off a record year and we expect a better one next year. But it means that during the consolidation

and the changes we've thrived. And the reason is we've really expanded our programming, So about between 35 and 40% of our box office's local language film, a big part of it is alternative content, whether that's concerts or sports events, things like that. Two of our biggest movies this year, we're a Chinese movie called Nejah and a Japanese movie called Dragon Slayer.

So we're controlling our own fate in that way. and I think no matter who wins the battle for Warner Brothers will be just fine. We have a great relationship with the Ellisons and with Paramount for over two decades. We have a special relationship with Netflix in that we're doing Narniates exclusively in IMAX. So, you know, we've gotten to know each other pretty well. But I think predicting where this ends is almost impossible because the way you prefaced your question with the twists and turns, and every day seems like another twist in turn. So I think we just have to sit back and see where it ends up with the knowledge, wherever it is. We think it'll be really good for us.

Okay. Rich Gelfand, great to have you on. Thank you. Thank you, Morgan. CEO of IMAX. Up next, Mike Santoli breaks down the recent rotation towards cyclicals, and whether it's signaling a lasting rebalancing of the market, plus why several names in the aerospace and defense industry are seeing some out of this world's gains today. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. The Space Development Agency announcing a total of $3.5 billion in contract awards to Rocket Lab, Lockheed Martin, North of Gremlin, and L3 Harris coming into the weekend. That's to build a total of 72 missile warning. and tracking satellites. All of those names popping on the news in trade today.

For Rocket Lab, though, in particular, which finished up another 10% at an all-time high today, it's the second big defense contract in a week after winning more than $800 million to build a missile defense satellite constellation for the U.S. Space Force. Rocket Lab has been on a huge run for investors. It's been a rocket ship, if you will. Stock more than tripling this year, but in general, commercial space names have been on a tear. And some of it has been anticipation of the SpaceX IPO, possibly next year. But it has also been this flurry of contract awards that we see coming out before the year or the calendar year is out. And just in general, a lot of positive sentiment in the space space.

Well, after a two-month turn and broadening rotation into cyclicals, NASDAQ 100 valuations have come back down to Earth. But this is a buying opportunity. Is it for mega-cap tech or is it a sign that the market's leadership baton is being passed? Let's bring in senior markets commentator Mike Santoli for more. Mike. Yeah, Morgan, interesting dynamic, because as the market has flattened out, there has been a slight slippage in the NASDAQ 100's outperformance that was in place for most of the last three years. You see the forward PE on the top panel here. It was down to about 26, which nobody would say is outright cheap.

But it's certainly the low end of its multi-year range, accepting, obviously, where we got down to in the tariff panic in April. And then you see on the bottom panel here, the NASDAQ 100's Forward PE, relative to the broader S&P 500, it's rarely been as low as this. As a matter of fact, you could even go back farther, and it's almost always had a premium. Now, one thing that might be going on is the market is uneasy about how those companies are spending those earnings, right? They're still reporting this massive earnings growth, but not as much free cash flow because of all the AI-related investments. So if you looked at it on a free cash flow

multiple basis, they're actually more expensive. Another element of what we call the broadening It's really just kind of multiple pockets of the market that are sort of having their time in the sun. And one of those is microcap stocks. That's IWC, the ETF for microcaps. It's basically keeping pace actually now outperforming the NASDAQ 100. So we think of it as a top-heavy market, but it's actually the smallest stocks, too, that have a lot of that speculative flow running through them. And over there is the equal-weighted S&P 500, which has been a much more kind of steady, not a bad performance, but something that's been kind of right caught in the middle of all of these.

these dynamics out there. So it's much more of an eclectic market in terms of what's performing and what hasn't been, not just seven stocks up, the rest of the market, dead money. Yeah. You know, it's interesting, too, because if you look at the SAP midcap 400, that's actually been the lagger this year. It's only up a paltry 8% this year. But we've had so many strategists come on CNBC throughout the year and say they like midcaps. So the fact that that's lagging is interesting. It very much is interesting. And I think it's because if you're a strategist, you want to see the earnings basis for what you're going to make as a call. the midcaps are in a good place for that if we're going to have a little bit of a cyclical

upswing. But what it misses is that the small cap performance is really about the very aggressive speculative stuff or the very interest rate sensitive stuff, not the quality, steady earners that may be more representative in midcaps. All right. Mike Santoli. Thank you. Yeah. Time now for a CNBC News update with McKenzie Sagalos. Hi, Mac. Hey, Morgan. Canada today named a former Black Rock executive, as its next ambassador to the U.S. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Mark Wiseman will start the job in February.

His appointment comes at a crucial time for U.S. and Canadian relations, which have recently been rocked by President Trump's tariffs. Carney says Wiseman will be a key contributor on securing borders and strengthening the trade and investment relationship. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today, Israel is aware Iran

has been conducting exercises recently and warned that any hostile move would draw a sharp response. His comments come, as state media reported, the country held missile drills in various cities today. At New York City, mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani, will be sworn into office by New York Attorney General Letitia James and fellow Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders. Momdani's transition team says it will take place alongside a block party that can accommodate up to 40,000 people. Mamdani will later take the formal oath of office around midnight leading into New Year's Day.

Back to you, Morgan. All right. Mack, thank you. Oil moving higher today as the tensions with Venezuela escalate, as the U.S. ramps up action against Venezuelan tankers, we're going to discuss what could be next, what it means for our relationships with South America, and later. We'll look at a key indicator that could mean a Santa Claus rally is about to come to Wall Street. Stay with us. Welcome back to Closing Bell Overtime.

Stocks ending the day in the green. The S&P posting its third straight winning day. It's buoyed by the AI trade. Equities have erased their December losses, with the S&P set for an eighth straight up month. It's the longest streak since 2018. Tesla and NVIDIA led mega-caps higher. Oil rallied while gold and silver jumped to all-time highs.

It was the 52nd record closed for gold this year. Ooh, a few financials hitting new highs today, including J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Capital One. Financials have been on a tear. And Tesla at new records after a court ruled a $56 billion pay package for Elon Musk must be restored. Meantime, we just touched on it, but oil settling nearly 3% higher, U.S. officials intercepting a tanker in international waters overnight off the coast of Venezuela and reportedly in pursuit of another. That would be the third tanker intercepted in less than two weeks, if successful. And we are awaiting an announcement from the president. He's expected to begin.

in any minute now, so we're keeping an eye on that from Mar-a-Lago. That's alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Secretary of the Navy. But joining me here now on set, Michelle Caruso-C-Cabrera. She is CEO of MCC Global Enterprises and a CNBC contributor, and so good to have you here. Welcome. I'm a pleasure to be here. Thanks. So let's talk Venezuela and what we're seeing with these dark fleet tankers and the message it's sending. The administration is trying to curtail all possible revenue to the Maduro government of Venezuela. They started with the drug interdiction by bombing those cigarette boats and the submarines. And Secretary Rubio, Secretary of State on Friday, said that they hadn't done any more lately because they believe that they

have set a high level of deterrence and that that has stopped. They're now going after the oil tankers, which Venezuela, a lot of these tankers, all of them either sanctioned, not allowed to be on the seas, and yet they've been operating for several years. And the United States has decided that they are going to do everything they can to prevent oil revenue from going to this regime as well. They want stability in the Western Hemisphere, and they think it's very hard to have stability when you have Hezbollah, China, Russia, in Venezuela, participating in narco-trafficking, participating in illegal oil sales, and also in human trafficking as well. Yeah, and not to mention to your point, the impact it has the ripple effects, it has on

immigration dynamics throughout the hemisphere. National security strategy actually basically prioritized not only the homeland but the hemisphere. We haven't seen that a national security strategy in quite a while. So significant to see that this is all playing out now. What kind of message does it send to China, to Russia as we see Ukraine peace talks underway? So China and Russia have actually been pretty quiet on the Venezuela situation. That's been very, very interesting to see. And there were reports within the oil industry that perhaps when Trump met with Putin in Alaska, this was before he started these big moves in the Caribbean that he hinted to Putin or told them that that's what's going to happen.

Let's see. But I think your point is extremely important when it comes to migration. Venezuela, 25% of the population has left that country since 2014. Eight million people. They are the Syria of the Western Hemisphere. They've gone into all these Venezuelans.

They've gone to many different countries in the Latin America, you stabilize them. And the leadership of the country has allowed, has used those people believing as a way to send out gang members. Tren der Aragua is the big gang, and they have spread throughout the Western Hemisphere under cover of these people who have been trying to escape the very dire situation that's happening in Venezuela because of their mismanagement of the oil industry.

And speaking of the oil industry, the fact that you have oil up almost 2% today? It could be because of Venezuela. They don't contribute a lot. They produce 800,000 to 1.2 million barrels per day. They haven't been able to export that much lately because of the Trump administration going after these tankers. So that might be what's driving the prices higher, but it's a very small amount relative to what they could be producing and the total percentage of oil in the world.

I think the other reason why the Trump administration is so interested in this situation, when they want stability in the Western Hemisphere, if Venezuela could get its act together and produce more oil, all those migrants that we talked about would likely be far more willing to go home because that economy would be in far better shape. If they could go back to the three and a half million barrels of oil that they used to produce on a daily basis and could with a more orthodox investment regime and regulatory structure and foreign investment, that could be done. All right. Michelle Caruso Cabrera, great to have you here. You too. Thanks to have me. Well, when it comes to tracking sanction vessels, much of the intelligence that goes into those

missions actually comes from space-based data. Take Hawkeye-360. This is a defense tech Unicorn that recently closed a Series E funding round, made an acquisition. Hawkeye 360 satellites collect radio frequency signal data, RF data, that can track anomalous activity from, say, dark vessels or ships that have turned off their AIS signals. Then combine that with imagery and open source intelligence modalities to create what CEO and founder John Serafini calls, quote, turnkey intelligence products for government customers. These are vessels that normally have their AIS signal on, but have turned it off for which ever reason. Oftentimes, they turn it off for illicit purposes that they don't want to be

tracked. And so when they do so, they're still emitting signals, oftentimes X-Band or S-Bam radars or pusher talk radio systems or other beacons within that vessel. And we're able to uniquely identify them, associate them with a Hawkeye identifier, maintain chain of custody of those vessels, and then track them into perpetuity and start to extract intelligence about what they're doing. That occurs all over the world. It occurs in places like the Caribbean, but it also occurs in the Arabian Gulf and the South China Sea, everywhere there's ocean. So Zerafini, not commenting on or confirming, I should say, that the company is directly involved in these Venezuela tracking activities, also not commenting on a possible IPO.

But this is one of the names that investors should keep an eye on heading into 2026, as we are poised to see a flurry of defense and space tech offerings next year. Well, Bitcoin has been trying to mount a comeback recently after getting crushed during. the last few months. You should bet on a Bitcoin balance into 2026. That's the question. We're going to discuss it. Plus, this mystery oversees exchange significantly outperforming the S&P 500 this year. We're going to discuss whether there's still room for it to rally next year. That's later on overtime. Welcome back. Shares of Dominion Energy down nearly 4% today. One of the worst performers in the S&P 500. The stock tumbling after President Trump halted further development of its wind power projects, including the coastal Virginia offshore wind project. This is the largest of its kind in the U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Bergam citing national security concerns and needing time to assess possible national security risks. That was what was behind the move. Well, the AI trade is making a comeback as the NASDAQ is turning positive for them. month. NVIDIA and Oracle are among the key stocks that offered a boost to the broader market today.

Can the AI trade reclaim market leadership into your end? Well, joining us now, KKM financial founder and CEO Jeff Kilberg. Jeff, great to have you on. Good to be here, Morgan. How are you? I'm doing great. What do you think of this AI trade? Well, I think it's been fascinating, right? We've seen a decoupling inside of the Mag 7, which was really interesting in the late Q3 when you saw Nvidia as well as meta, a lot of profit taking. And what did we see, Morgan? We saw some buying of the laggards. If you go back to just after April, when we saw those trade tariffs, that's when Google was really trading down about 150. It was a great opportunity to allocate to Google as well as Apple. So this inter-Mag 7 rotation has been fascinating. But the bigger, broader picture, I think it's going

to set up for 2026, specifically as we see the VIX dripping down to 14 today. It seems like we're going to have the opportunity to buy and broaden this AI trade. So what would you be buying in this broadening? So if you look at Oracle, yes, Oracle has been absolutely. knee-capped, right? It went up to 3.30 on all that euphoria and optimism about the backlog, and now there's been all these delays and worry about financing. But I think Oracle is an opportunity. It's actually in our essential 40 ETF, but also Intel. Intel's had a sensational year. It was up over 100% a couple weeks ago. But all this profit taking, all this reposition we're seeing, I think is presenting an opportunity. But look at a Palo Alto Network, Morgan.

I think you have to think outside of the Mag 7. We've seen, obviously, the Mag 7 be the backbone of the rally. But as we go to the fourth year of this bull rally, I think you have to think outside of that Mag 7, and that's where this broading opportunity is in AI. But you have to go second or third derivatives of Mag 7. Okay. How about broader market in general? What is your take going into 2026? So I was one of the few lone bulls back in April, if you recall, and I have a price target. I'm hoping to meet it with the Santa Claus rally of 7100. I know we're running out of days here, Morgan. But I think the overarching theme in 2026 is lower interest rates. When do they come? Do they come sooner than later? Will Fed Chairman Paul last all the way to May of

2026? But that overarching thing of lower interest rates is going to propel the growth trade, but it's also going to allow the economy, which is really focused on what we saw in earnings, which produced a ton of profits. Profits' expectations were nearly double than we thought. So I'm excited. I'm optimistic. I think we see another great year in the markets, but it's not going to be without volatility. We're not going to see the VIX at 14 inside of January, in my opinion. When I talk about volatility, how about Bitcoin in the pullback we've seen? seen here. Well, Bitcoin has really been interesting this year in 2025 because it was so lock and step. It was the risk on asset. If you put a NASDAQ100, the QQs next to Bitcoin, they were

lock and step until April, when we saw those trade tariffs, really decouple that risk on correlation. So as you've seen profit taking, I haven't seen a back and fill all the down to 76,000, which I would like to see in the Bitcoin futures before we resume. But there's so many new organic buyers, meaning the platform, the ability for investors with their advisors or through their advisors, they can now allocate. So I think you will see Bitcoin go back over 100,000. But right now, people are a little shook. When you see a 30% drop, you have to be considered. This isn't equities. This is Bitcoin. It's very common and usual to have these type of pullbacks, but you have to have the stomach for it, Morgan. You touched on growth. You're at the NASDAQ and you rang the closing

bell because you just launched another ETF. The KKM Mango Growth ETF. What's going into that? And why do we need another growth ETF? Ticker symbol is Gary. And it is, and it is a is juicy. So the Mango Growth ETF, we're really focused on this actively managed ETF to be considered of all these movements moving forward in 2026. So if you look at Formula 1, of course, you look at Invidia, if you look at AMD, those are some of the top holdings in this current ETF, which we just launched, started trading today. We're so excited to be here at the NASDAQ. But I think as you consider, more active management and growth is going to be really important in 2026. You can't just buy the MAG 7 and hope that things go back up.

But that is where our active manager, we're utilizing the sub-advisor of Savoy Capital. They've been specialists in growth for the last 20 years. So we get really excited about bringing this to the marketplace, and we're very proud. It's a big milestone here for Kit Cam Financial. All right. Well, congrats on the milestone. Jeff Kilbert. Great to have you on. Thank you. Happy holidays. You too.

Well, Japan's NICA has been significantly beating the S&P 500's returns all year. Up next, we're going to discuss whether you should look to land to the land of the rising sun for more big profits in 2026. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Let's turn to the international markets. Japan's Niki closing higher today. This comes after the country's central bank raised benchmark rates to a 30-year high late last week. It has had a stellar run this year of 26 percent outpacing the S&P 500.

Can the positive momentum continue? Joining us now is Kay Akamura. He is New Burger Berman's portfolio manager for Japanese equities. And Kay, it's great to have you on the show. Given the fact that the Bank of Japan has been hiking, can the equity market continue to power higher? Hi, thanks for having me on the show, Maureen. So let me break that down to a couple parts. First of all, we do think that the market can go higher.

And that's on the back of the fundamentals and the valuation. So on the fundamental side, we have the Japanese economy, exit. the last decades of deflation, inflation is stabilizing, we're starting to see structural gains in wage growth. That's a positive factor. And then on the valuation side, you mentioned, the Japanese equity market gained around 26, 25% or so this year to date. But then, you know, when you look at the valuation, it's about mid-teens PE, which is a much for the discount compared to, say, the S&P or other European equities. So we do think that Japanese equities remains quite attractive. On the other hand, what the Bank of Japan did last week, it's kind of

reflective of this. We are, the economy is normalizing. And I think it's for that reason that the Bank of Japan decided to hike, you know, interest rates by 25 basis points, albeit it's still at 0.75%, which is still very low by international standards. I realize you're focused on the equity market, but the yen had weakened dramatically against the U.S. dollar after that rate hike and stabilized today. And certainly you've had officials who have come out and basically said they're keeping an eye on this and that helped to stabilize things. So how closely are you watching currencies given the ripple effects of that two other asset classes, including stocks? Yeah, look, I keep a very close eye on currency markets,

just simply because, you know, it has a big impact in terms of the imported cost of inflation. Also, you know, I just came back from a break from overseas and it was pretty pricey, especially being paid in Japanese debt. But that being said, when we're investing in Japanese equity in the long term, I think it is important that we are invested in companies that have battle-hard balance sheets and business models that can weather these short-term volatility in the yen. So if you take a look at our portfolio, we own companies like Toyota, which is a great company that has localized production in the end markets, such as the one where you're at in the U.S. and it's important because it basically removes the cost implications between the top line

in the cost-based, and that's usually where the biggest sort of volatility comes from the currency mismatch. So I think that's an important factor to take into consideration, be invested in these companies that have, you know, gone through, you know, various types of cycles and currency volatilities. Those are the ones that will continue to win over the mid to long term. You know, it's interesting because we've seen fiscal packages help propel markets in other parts of the world. I think about Germany where defense spending and infrastructure are key parts of those fiscal packages. You're hearing very similar comments. around things like defense spending from Japan's prime minister. Is that part of the bull case

for Japan going into 2026? Yeah, absolutely. You know, just like other markets, the defense is booming at the moment, shipbuilding, semiconductors, like the previous guest was saying. I think all of these are very, very important themes, and they're part of the core sort of strategic investment package that the government has come to the market with, especially since this new elected prime minister, you know, came to the front scenes in October of this year. What is important is that in the last sort of several years, if we track back, we've been seeing Japanese equities continue to do quite well. And that has to do with the balance sheet reforms and the capital efficiency gains that have finally come through after many, many decades.

But now what's even more interesting is what you just alluded to, which is that the government is trying to come up with the growth story. And that's an actually important factor, as equity investors, we need that aspect to be more forward-looking investors over the mid to long term. And quickly, Kay, how does China factor into this given the rising tensions with that country? It is a very important factor. At the end of the day, a great relationship with all trading partners is always the best thing. But that being said, if we look back last several years, the Japanese economy has done well to sort of reduce its dependence on one country such as China and diversify it into other such as the U.S. And so I think,

for the near term, we could see volatility. I'm not ruling that out, but I think over the long run, we should be okay. Okay. Kay Okamora, thanks for joining me. Thank you. Well, power outage in San Francisco, causing Waymo's robo-taxies to come to a screeching halt this weekend. Up next, what that could mean for the future of driverless vehicles. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. There are no earnings on the calendar, but we will get some key economic data, including the first reading on third quarter GDP, the October durable goods report, and the October and November industrial production report, also December consumer confidence. Well, I'm sure you're all familiar with the song, the night the lights went out in Georgia. Well, they went out in San Francisco over the weekend, caused a major problem for Waymo.

Robo Taxis and everybody else hit in the streets to shop for the holidays. Deer Jibos has the details. Hi, D. Morgan, I'm actually not familiar with that song, but the one that came to mind for me was blinded by the light, or in this case, no light. These are some of the scenes from Saturday night in San Francisco. Waymo stopped in the middle of intersections, causing gridlock across parts of the city. And it raises a bigger question for the alphabet subsidiary. Can they generalize?

Because the ability to adapt in real time, that's what ultimately unlocks scale. And that's what this robot taxi race is ultimately about. This may also be the key divide between the Waymo and the Tesla approaches. So Elon Musk posted over the weekend, the Tesla barbotaxies, they were unaffected by the power outage. Not a fair comparison because Tesla doesn't run a driverless service here, but it does reveal a different philosophy. Tesla is trying to build autonomy that behaves more like a human, one that can improvise when things go sideways like they did. Now, here's a simple way to think about it. A Waymo Robotaxie approaching a dead traffic light treats it as a four-way stop,

proceeds cautiously until it can confirm what every other actor is doing. A more human-like system, which Musk says that Tesla is building, would do what drivers actually did that night, and that is read eye contact, edge forward, make a judgment call without perfect signals. The latter, that Tesla way, if it works out like that, may come with safety tradeoffs because it's asking the system to make judgment calls with less certainty, i.e. learn in the wild. If it works, it could scale faster because it doesn't require perfect mapping before deployment, Morgan.

highlight sort of the two different ways that this could develop. Yeah. I mean, this is fascinating to me, and I am curious how it affected you personally if it did. But it also comes as you, you know, read reports about Baidu and Lyft and Uber in the UK. I mean, this is the race here, right? And Baidu's not allowed to operate in the U.S. So that headline that, you know, what Uber and Lyft are trying to be is the aggregator. Whereas Waymo and Tesla, they could do it all on their own.

Waymo's partnering with Uber in some cases with Lyft. says it won't do that. It can build the platform up. But Morgan, to your question, did not affect me because I'm across the bridge. We don't have Waymos yet. All right. Well, that's good. Dear Gebosa, thank you. Merry Christmas. Happy holidays. That does it for us here at overtime. Fast money begins right now.