Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Investing Through Tariff Turmoil with Mario Gabelli; Private Credit Markets Underpricing Risk? 10/14/25

Episode Date: October 14, 2025

As trade tensions rise, Mario Gabelli joins on set to discuss how investors can navigate the uncertainty and some top picks. Fortune Brands CEO Nick Fink on how timber and furniture tariffs are hitting manufacturers. Raymond James Global Head of Private Capital Advisory Sunaina Sinha Haldea joins to break down how tariff pressures could ripple through the consumer economy, the Fed’s next moves, and borrowing conditions. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell marks the end of regulation. Embraeering the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange, bio-excell therapeutics doing the honors at the NASDAQ, and stocks are mixed with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ lower. The Dow fractionally higher. Big intraday turnarounds, too, as Jay Powell suggests the Fed's tightening program could end soon. The Dow trading in a range more than 1,000 points between the low and the high of the day. And beneath the surface, though, today's trading not as mixed as it seemed. sectors in the S&P were higher, except for tech and consumer discretionary. Financials, industrials, materials, the best groups.

Invidia, a big culprit in tech's losses. More on that in a minute. Gold benefiting from global trade uncertainty, rising above $4,100 an ounce. Another record high. Silver, finally getting back to its 1980 high and adding a little more today. Well, that's a scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort.

Coming up on the show, we will get some sage advice. on how to handle these markets and the tariff turmoil. Investing legend Mario Gabelli is here on set imminently. And then we'll speak with someone who's concerned about the impact of a tariff with China, from consumer spending to Fed action to corporate borrowing, lots of potential ripple effects. Raymond James is Sunaina Sinha Haldea is going to join us. Plus, we will hear from GE Aerospace's CEO Larry Culp.

The company making a new investment in workforce training as demand for a product, continues to be strong. And by products, I mean jet engines and airplanes. That's coming up as well. But we begin with a big comeback for stocks while off the lows of the day. Not enough to bring the NASDAQ back, though, falling a little more, well, a little less than 1%. Christina parts of nevelas has got more. Christina. Yeah, it was a little bit of a mixed day. You did see equities sell up just into the close on President Trump's new rhetoric regarding China trade. Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell's remarks suggesting the Fed is on track for a rate cut at month end. Like you mentioned, the financial sector did close about 1% higher, led by Wells Fargo, closing up 7% after raising

its profitability target. But big banks, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs didn't fare as well. Both closed almost 2% lower. J.P. Morgan's chief, Jamie Diamond, warned about heightened uncertainty from tariffs, trade, inflation, as well as high asset prices. As for the indices, the NASDAQ, the weakest link driven down by tech. You can blame profit-taking or continued AI bubble concerns, or more specifically, Invidia falling about 3% weighing on the NASDAQ in particular as investors really assessed increased competition in AI chips. The drop actually followed Oracle's announcement that it would deploy 50,000 AMD chips in a new AI supercluster starting in Q3 of next year.

And so that's why you saw such a divergence between AMD shares and Nvidia's shares closing about 4% lower. Meanwhile, Meta and Oracle announced they will adopt Nvidia's Ethernet Networking Hardware for their data centers. That spooked competitors for ERISA and networks. I should say, spook the investors for both of those names. That's where you're seeing ERISA and Estera Labs also dropping about 5% on the news. Guys? All right, Christina Parts and Avales. Thank you. Now let's turn to the bond market where trade war fears and comments from Fed Chair Powell briefly sent the 10-year yield below 4%. Rick Santelli joins us from Chicago with more. Hi, Rick.

Yeah, you know, it's a strange day in treasuries, especially if you can the ranges that we were just speaking about in equities, over 1,000 points, closer to 1,100 points on the Dow. But yet, if you look at twos and tens on the same chart, a 12-hour, you can see, A, that two-year yields were leading the curve lower, as you can see, and some of the best yields of the day were long before Chair Powell even spoke. That test of 4%. If you blinked, you missed it, it was around 6 a.m. New York time, and once again, whether it was today, September 19th, or the fact that we keep toying with this level, but we only settled right at 4% once this year, and that was in April. Now, if we look at the chart from a two-year perspective, and the two-year did lead,

Chairman Paul definitely was on the doveish side. Two-year yields are on pace right now to close at the lowest yield since September of 2022. If you look at a 10-year, and this chart starts in September of 24, so a little over a year, you can see we haven't spent any time under 4% since October of last year. And this is an important distinction, because as the short end pays attention to what does seem like a Fed that's going to eat two more times this year, the long end void of QE quantitative easing still remains quite stubborn. John, Morgan, back to you. Rick Santelli, thank you. Well, a mixed day on Wall Street here with the S&P 500 ending the day fractually lower the NASDAQ as well. The Dow actually finishing the day higher. Volatility index hit a four-month high, has investors digest the latest in the U.S.-China trade battle. This, as the government shutdown enters its second week, third week, how should investors position amid all this uncertainty? Joining us exclusively, Mario Gabelli, chairman, and CEO of Gamco investors right here on set. It's great to have you. Welcome.

Great to be here, Morgan. John, it's my privilege, and I love my favorite subject. All right. There's a lot to get to with you. But first, just more broadly, I do want to get your thoughts on the markets as we trade right near record highs here. Well, I'm not so sure I can give you a lot of insights into the daily activity. Friday, you know what happened? Retaliation. Monday, everything was nice. Today, we're still fluffing around. So those are the short-term dynamics tied to taxes, tariffs, and the other team. in Trump. And so those things are important. But over the next three to four years, what is the economy going to do? The globally, 180 pages came out this morning dealing with data on every country in the world and what kind of, and they lifted the growth rate for the United States in real terms. So how a company is going to do? What is the impact of currency on their

earnings? What does the cost of good soul? Are the gross margins going to prove? What's the SG&A? And then you have profits. And I think they're going to be okay. And then on top of them, what you're going to have is a question of multiple. And you just heard the question of interest rates and confidence. So I'm okay, but then I look at the markets of $60 trillion in the United States, and I say, $4 trillion that is one stock. That's a lot. Netflix.

Will it double, or will I find stocks in the sports world that will double over the next five years? And I think I can do a better job at that. Okay. And I do want to dig into some of those names that you like here. But first, I mean, the fact that the market is so concentrated around this AI trade, Do you see this as the beginning of the inflating of a bubble? Well, you know, in 1410, I was a monk. And so, oh, you don't believe me, do you?

I basically would scribe on yellow sheets of paper. And then this guy comes along called Guttenberg, and he created a revolution. And the AI is creating a revolution along the same lines, and we're just going to adjust. Under the free market system that we have with all the flaws, the rule of law with all the floors, you know, we're going to adjust. And that's as simple as I believe in it. So we will figure out, now, to the degree that you're going to put trillions of dollars into this, somebody's not going to make money. Who do you think does make money? I can't.

No, but I mean, how would you be investing as we see this AI infrastructure build out, especially when it touches so many different parts of the market? Appropriate question. And so I want everyone here to buy one share of national fuel and gas located in Buffalo. There are 90 million shares as simple as NFG. And what they did is 100 years ago, they bought a million acres of land between West Virginia and including New York, which has not been very hospice. But they're in what they call down to the core of the earth. If they got an acreage down to Marcellus, which is 10,000 feet, and then out of Utica, which is lower,

they have the natural reserves of that gas. So when you're talking about a stock that's selling at 85, buying back stock, probably increasing the dividend, and maybe subject to financial engineering. They want to buy, they have 750,000 gas customers. They may want to buy more, but they also can harvest that. So how do you, can you go down to the places down in the south to get that gas? Are you going to get it in Marcellus to bring it to Connecticut? They're going to bring it to LNG ports that are developing.

So they've got a fairly good dynamic there. So that's the one way we're playing it among many others. Like Modin makes chillers for the equipment. It's a bunch of things. Mary, what about the macroeconomic and even social consequences of this AI revolution? You're talking about the growth rate for the U.S. projected up, but at the same time, we've got this great bifurcation between the wealthy and the working class. That's totally unrelated. Well, but I want to set that up in the sense that AI threatens, at least, to put pressure on the entry level of white-collar work.

So, one might extrapolate that even if the growth rate overall rises, maybe the distribution of benefit across the economy isn't what it used to be because of what's happening with AI. And, hey, you can see it happening in stocks in the market, right? No, but you could have made that argument when they first came in with the, what's that guy's name, Eisenhower built up the interstate highway. You could have made that argument when other things happened over the years. From my point of view, when I lecture to students, I tell them the great challenges, their focus, and their intensity of coming up with ways to create wealth for themselves and create options. And I've got to tell you, that resonates with them. Are they concerned about it? Sure, because they hear headlines like the one you just said about job losses and job creation.

So what? Be flexible. Darwin said it's not the strongest to survive. It's not the smartest. It's the ones that are also most flexible. You're going to be like Darwin. You'll survive. Okay. So what is an economy, what does a country need to do you think for flexibility outside of your pay grade?

But power is necessary either way is what you're saying. When you're talking about, I've gone through eight recessions since I started in Wall Street as an analyst, and we're going to have more. And the answer is, as long as the free market system works and the role of capitalism works with all the flaws and meritocracy so that people can come to work and make a lot of money and be praised and not condemned because there's a divide, then I'm okay. Now, if you want to go and take Venezuela as an example of how to allocate capital, that's one thing. I don't want to believe in that. I think we can, with all our flaws, we're going to do okay. And obviously, we've got an election coming up next year, and you've got other challenges, but it'll happen. What do you think of bank earnings, what we've gotten so far? Look, J.P. Morgan, what happened before that is you had a growth of private credit that's unregulated.

And I've seen this many times of the past. And then you had a company called Tricolor, and then you had a company called First Brands, and they busted. How many others are creeping in? And so one has to be concerned about that element. Notwithstanding that, you had Wells Fargo up $8 or $9, you had more of these companies doing better. However, think about the merger, a week and a half ago,

you had a merger between first, third, and the other one, America. We have too many banks. Make love. And M&A is going to occur. So that's what the dynamic. We need to consolidate some of these companies and for the benefit of all of us. Yeah, and we've been talking about the deregulation, maybe the better word, is regulatory reform of the banks, the biggest banks. So when you do look at financials right now, in general, what do you invest in? What do you like? Well, we have basically a team run by Max Sykes, who's doing a great job on this, and as a result of that, eight or nine, God, I can't believe it. We bought a lot of trust banks. So we own Bank of New York. We own the Northern Trust

and particularly have an interest, obviously, in State Street. So those trust banks have done well, and Jamie Diamond. I can't buy Jamie here. He's three and a half times tangible book. But, Jamie, thank you for all you're doing. So that's the best I can do for that one. How much are you counting on interest rates coming down? That's not, to me, at the beginning of the year, I said a four on the T-bill and five on the 10-year. The 10-year is coming down a little bit, but that's not relevant to me. What's relevant to me is the notion of the geopolitical risk that we've run into every day. Okay, what's going on with the Ukraine, what's going on with Taiwan, what's going on in other parts of the world, and can we have a miscalculation?

So those are the – and then on top of that, when you think about energy, what if we have another three-mile island? Right. And all the SMRs that are being put in neighborhoods say, oh, my gosh, maybe I made a mistake, and I don't want it here. So there's a lot that go on. But I can't worry about that. There's so many other things to think about. Has Europe gotten more attractive to you? It's always been attractive.

We have a team that we just added to our Zurich office. We have a team in London for the last 30 years. But think about sports. What's more attractive? Baseball. Atlanta Braves, $43. Malone controls the vote. He's got 48% of the vote. At some point, it's sold for the mid-60s.

Then there's another team up in Toronto. They just lost two in a row at home, but that team is owned by Rogers. So I could buy baseball teams. Instead of getting on alternate investments and being told to pay double fees or triple fees, I get instant liquidity. I pay a reasonable management fee that are the people that run it, and I'm going to make money.

In addition to that, I think about New York. Madison Square Garden Sports sells a $220 worth about $400. Jimmy Dolan doesn't want to sell the teams, but he doesn't have to. What the guy up in Boston did, which was brilliant, who owns the Pats. What he did, Kraft did, was he sold a piece of the Holco. So Jimmy can come in, get some money up here to do whatever he wants. Now, the one problem with bold of these teams is they're owned by public companies. And there's a section of the IRS code, which I don't want to get into, but it's 162M.

I know, which means that you can't deduct the judge's salary. That's crazy. They've got to change that. So there are always rules and imperfections and that. And then we have the World Cup. I'm going to say soccer. You like soccer here, too. Well, I have to be practical.

It's global. Man U is selling at $16.80. Symbol is M.A.N.U. Manchester United, always had a great brand. They've had a little challenge on the field. And we think the Glazer, who owns 28% of it, now the Glazers owns 62% and the other guy, Radcliffe, owns 28%, so 100%, or 72 and 28.

And basically, they're going to come up with a deal. He paid 34. I'm paying 1680. And this is a great brand. If I'm in Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhaba, I may, hey, they already own Man City. They're going to buy this. So those are the things.

Then in the military, you guys talked about it yesterday. We like Textron. Textron, the guy running is done a great job. Honeywell just came out with a notice today about a private aviation. You like to fly private. He does. I like to fly period. I know.

I got that. No. But basically, hopefully they get the traffic control in place. The stock is selling at 82. 23, TXT, there's about 180 million shares. They're going to earn $6. They have a replacement for the Black Hawk. They have commercial aviation, which is the longitude, latitude on Cessna,

and they've got a lot of other things. And the guy running is doing a great job. So those are the kinds of things that we like. And can we do well in the flat market? Can we do well in the down market? Not on a daily basis. But that's what we do every day. Yeah, and aerospace and defense is a secular growth story,

and certainly your prolific investor in aerospace and defense. I know Tony Bancroft runs that fun for you. Finally, just to go back to sports for a minute, also just want to talk to you about media as we start to see M&A pick up there too. That's a great question. Companies are doing financial engineering. There's a company in Philadelphia,

Comcast, I think. And they're spitting off something. Some great stuff. Some great stuff they're spinning on. The stock's 30. But then you got Zazloff at Warner Bros. Discovery. He was going to split. to two parts. And then Ellison comes along, David, and he says, hey, I'm taking on Paramount,

and now they're trying to figure out a way to position each other. Right now, Paramount has $1.1 billion shares, 70% owned by the Ellison and other related parties. But when you look at, what is he going to pay for Water Brothers? And does anybody care? The stock is 1718. If they give $25 on $2.5 billion, that's $62,000. They got $80, $30 billion a debt, $90 billion. Paramount is only like $30 billion. So where are you coming with the money? And if you want to make love, bring roses and chocolates.

So far they've only got roses. They've got to come in with chocolate so Zazlov's not buying. Any event, then the next one I must admit that I'm buying is Fox. Okay, there's $435 million. The voting stock is trading at 51 by the voting stock, that's not by the non-voting. and you're getting it a $5 cheaper. I don't understand why you can't invest that way.

Okay, like Lenore, the same thing. So Fox is going to earn a fiscal year starting July 1st. They're the ones that do sports. That's why I mentioned it, because they have the soccer rights. And secondly, there are others around the world, like Grupo Televisa, Mexico. But on balance, I think they're going to have, you know, uninspiring earnings for the first quarter. But then next year you got the election, and you got the election. soccer, so you're going to make money.

All right. Mary Goodbelly, we just covered a lot there. It's great to have you here on set. Thank you. I didn't bring my props. No props, but you did bring a packet on soccer and the World Cup. Next time. Mary, great to have you. It's your privilege to be here. Thank you. Thank you. Well, coming up, much more on the market reaction

to tariff turmoil. We're going to hear from the CEO of Fortune Brands as tariffs hit timber and furniture today. And we will talk to one market watcher. He was concerned about how the tariff impact will play out in the economy. For example, the Fed cut rates of tariffs cause inflation. We're going to explore those issues over time's back in two.

Welcome back. Another big day for the rare earth stocks, as that sector has become a key issue in the latest flare-up of the U.S. China trade tensions. That includes the names we've been hearing a lot about. Trilogy medals, that's a big gain today, a 400% in October. Critical metals, energy fuels, also with huge gains. today. U.S. trade rep Jameson Greer telling CNBC President Trump acted in response to China's strict controls on these rare earths. He says China's next actions will determine if the threatened 100 percent tariffs are actually implemented. So we watch this closely. Well, further down the supply

chain tariffs on foreign wood products and furniture kicking in today with a threat of more on the way. I spoke with Fortune Brands Innovation CEO Nicholas Fink about it recently. Brands in the company include Mowen and Water, Larson, and Doors, and Masterlock, Yale, and August in security. Thinks said his company is prepared. The issue is how the consumer overall will respond to tariffs. We've worked very hard with suppliers, our own supply chain, to mitigate everything. And where we didn't mitigate, we were able to take, call it single digit pricing as an average across the portfolio. And with that, tariffs are covered.

I read a report, interestingly, came out recently said that we were behind on our second round of price increases. There is no second round. We were done. That's the discipline of this company. We do it. We get it done. We move on. But you're touching on really my bigger concern, which is the impact on consumer and consumer confidence from the broader impact of having to digest price increases where they are price increases. And I think to some extent that's kept people on the sidelines, you know, at some point, though, it gets digested. I think at some point it gets digested. I, you know, I don't, I mean, there are areas. We can see aluminum. We saw something recently in cabinets. We might see

some incremental. But I think the broad-based, you know, multi-country, multi-category is probably behind us now and will be digested. And like everything, I think the consumer will eventually adjust to that, particularly if we have a healthy economy. And how healthy the economy will stay, of course, is the question on many investors' minds as well. Well, coming up on overtime, Walmart, soaring to an all-time high today. Stock finished up five percent. send. We have the latest company to get an open AI boost. We're going to explain. And gold also soaring to a new record. The ultimate safety investment, but it's trading like a meme stock. Mike Santoli is going to join us with that story. I have a feeling of chart when

overtime returns. Welcome back. Open AI is Halo shining on Walmart today. The company is partnering on an AI-powered shopping application. It will allow customers to buy items directly within chat GPT. Walmart having its best day since April, spiking to a new all-time high, now up five, closing up 5% today. Also climbing higher gold, but could the move be less about fundamentals? More about momentum, echoing some of the risk appetite that we're seeing in crypto and quantum tech. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli's taking us to the charts for a deeper dive. Mike? Yeah, John, And, you know, speculative assets do best when there really isn't much in the way of fundamentals.

It's kind of just about another buyer's willingness to believe and to assign value to things. So I do think there's something going on that connects these moves. Bitcoin, obviously, that's this one. It's 71% in the last year or so, but it's had a really strong two-year run. Q-T-U-M, that's a quantum computing ETF. Most of those very untested companies, no real current revenues. That has launched higher. And then, of course, gold has accelerated up just in the last few months.

I don't think this is what's going on. But if you had a tremendous amount of windfall paper profits from crypto, and of course, the last couple of years, Bitcoin crypto in total has added $2 or $3 trillion in wealth or in market cap, then maybe you'd say, look, my hedge against that is gold, which is, of course, analog Bitcoin, or quantum, which someday might be able to break crypto encryption. I don't really think that's what's happening. but hey, it's a story we can tell with a chart. Now, take a look at another relationship to go, which is the MAG 7, over the last two years.

It's kind of the same chart. Sort of remarkable. We can call it coincidence. I do think what unifies this, though, is the general perception that these two asset classes or quasi-asset classes are somewhat insulated, if not entirely so, from the macro economy, from a lot of policy issues. and sort of they have their own sort of sources of strength and energy behind them as opposed to just moving along with GDP and interest rates. Mike, back to the first chart. I can't help but notice that before April, speaking of tariffs and all the turmoil around that announcement, those lines don't look too similar, but after is when things are generally moving up.

How much of this just has to do with the enormous headfake that the market got, you think, in April? That was absolutely the thing that sort of pulled back the slingshot and launched all risk assets in the same direction. And the story of the last six months has really been markets pricing out bad outcomes, you know, incrementally along the way. And, you know, we went from a maximum uncertainty moment to going to one of most perceived certainty. So a lot of it is absolutely that. But over this period of time, of course, the S&P 500, the broad equity market has not done nearly as well as this. So this has been an amplified version of overall risk asset moves. All right.

Mike Santoli, thank you. We'll see you later this hour. It's time now for a CNBC News Update with Bertha Coombs. Bertha. Hey, Morgan. Five major broadcast news networks say they will not sign the Pentagon's new policy for its press pool. In a joint statement with ABC, CBS, CNN, and Fox, our sister network NBC News said that the policy would, quote, restrict journalists' ability to keep the nation and the world's. informed. Among the policies provisions that reporters could be considered a, quote, security risk

if they disclose classified or even unclassified information without authorization. CNBC is not a member of the Pentagon press pool. The U.S. struck another boat off the coast of Venezuela, killing six people suspected of being drug traffickers. In a truth social post today, President Trump said the strike was against a designated terrorist organization, but did not share details on the group. And Netflix will stream a selection of Spotify's video podcasts starting next year in the U.S. The deal prevents shows from airing in full on YouTube, one of Netflix's biggest competitors. It involves 16 shows produced by Spotify and its sports and pop culture website, The Ringer. Back over to you, Morgan. All right, Bertha Coombs, thank you. Coming up,

we will hear from GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp. He's talking AI's impact on the labor force and the factory floors. Aerospace demand where he sees the future of flight heading. The stock has been a huge gainer this year. It's up 80%. We're also going to ask about the new investment in the workforce. Overtime. We'll be right back.

Welcome back to overtime. Final numbers for the markets today show a small gain for the Dow losses for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but how we got there is interesting too. Markets bounced off lows on comments from Fed Chair Powell but gave up some gains as President Trump once again criticized China, a tariff turmoil and Fed speak also impacting the bond market, the 10-year yield briefly falling below 4%. AMD, meanwhile, continuing its strong run, closing higher after Oracle orders 50,000 new chips, NVIDIA losing 4.5%, even bigger losses for Asterra and Credo. And earlier this hour, we spoke to Mario Gbelli, and he was naming names.

Mario named National Fuel Gas as a good way to get involved around AI. He said, everybody just buy one share. Looks like some people did. He also named Manchester United and Fox as stocks he liked. Those stocks also moving higher in overtime. Well, recent day is showing weakness in the labor market. But one area where workers continue to be in high demand, advanced manufacturing. GE Aerospace announcing today, through its foundation, a $30 million multi-year investment into workforce training to fill those gaps.

Now, GE Aerospace CEO and Chairman Larry Colp joined me earlier today from the company's Cincinnati Training Center to discuss this initiative, which is not just about feeding the talent pipeline for engine manufacturing at GE, but about getting more workers into more jobs throughout the aerospace supply chain. I asked him how it speaks to the demand trajectory across the industry. What we're seeing right now, again, is very strong demand from our air framers. We are going to be, I think, challenged to keep up with their expectations, but we're making a lot of progress in our supply chain this year. Excited to get into that in more detail next week, but also the airlines. I look today, I think we saw our departures up today, up 4% over the same period a year ago.

So we've talked about a mid-single-digit growth and departures this year. So a little bit of softening during the course of the summer, but things seem to be stable on a global basis. And that's obviously good news for us, but again, given that over three-quarters of our business comes in the aftermarket, we not only have to support those building new planes with new engines, but we support the airlines around the world. All of those that we're very fortunate to partner with. We've seen a number of trade deals struck, aircraft orders have been part of some of those announced deals.

What does it mean for GE? Well, we look at the fact that we've got $170 billion backlog, again, sold out through the rest of this decade. But nevertheless, we're competing for every good opportunity out there in the marketplace, be it to support an airline as they think about their MRO operations, let alone those who are either modernizing or expanding their fleets. Today, we're fortunate to have nearly a million passengers underwing in the air right now with our technology under wing. We often talk about inventing the future of flight here. We want to continue to serve as well for as far as the eye can see.

So let's talk a little bit about the future of flight because you're also testing hypersonic engines, there's propulsion for military drones. You've got investments in and partnerships with startups, a number of which are getting ready to go public themselves like Merlin and beta technologies. Where is the future of flight headed? Well, you touch on a lot of the answer right there, Morgan. It's in no one place, and it's in a lot of different places. We're certainly encouraged by the startup investments that we've made, say, in a beta

technologies, the work that we're doing with Merlin. But for us, edgy aerospace, the core of our future of flight investment is in our commercial business, particularly with the next generation narrow bodies in mind. Now granted, these are airplanes that probably don't. don't fly until sometime in the 2035, 2040 time period. But we need to be making the investments today in technology in order to have a product ready for those airplane launches.

We talk a lot about our rise program. That's really the umbrella for a number of technology efforts underway. Most importantly, our open fan architecture, which we think is really going to be the enabling technology for that next 20% increase in fuel efficiency. That's what's going to be required. on board that next generation narrowbody and of course we want to be on board at the same time

you've also been focusing on extending the time with your leap engines to maintenance how's that going Morgan that's going really well we often talk in the industry about time on wing how long can an engine fly on an airplane before it needs that next checkup that next service visit so there's a lot that we've done with our legacy engines to provide industry leading time on wing performances. What we're doing now is improving our leap engine, again like the engine behind me, to make sure that it is on par from a time-on-wing perspective with its predecessor engine, the CFM 56. While at the same time making sure those engines to come, the next of course which is the 9x, which will

be underwing on the Boeing triple 7x soon, that it too has high reliability at launch. And all the while we're making sure even in a program that's an off perhaps a decade, like our RISE program, that we are thinking about durability improvements, leveraging our experience throughout the technology and the product development effort. In fact, we just named a chief mechanic for the RISE program. You might think, why would you want a chief mechanic on something that's still in the technology phase? It's because we want to make sure we're thinking about serviceability and durability from the start. And if I bring this all together, and I guess sort of full circle here, how does AI factor

into all of this? Whether it's in terms of how you're training that future workforce or how you are building and maintaining these engines? Well, we've got AI activity virtually everywhere across the company right now. Being here at C-Tech talking about workforce development, we've talked a good bit about not only what we can do from a training perspective, think about AI and virtual reality, helping us improve the way people not only manufacture but service an aircraft engine, but also what we're able to do in some of the critical life cycle activities like an engine inspection where we literally go in and check every single blade in that engine. The blades are a critical

component. They're exposed to the highest temperatures in the engine. What we're able to do with AI is take images inside the engine without tearing it apart, capture any abnormalities, and then go through a rigorous image processing routine that allows us to do better inspections, quickly than we had been able to with previous technology. So it's still early, I think in many respects relative to the use cases around AI, but put GE aerospace down as being a bullish corporate in that regard. Do you think we're going to see this shift amid the broader adoption of AI towards manufacturing jobs, highly skilled jobs, like the ones that you're investing in today, becoming more

valuable as the world becomes more digitized? than we do, because it's not as if AI is going to replace somebody in a manufacturing operation or service shop. It's really helping them do better work more consistently in a shorter amount of time. As you know, we often talk about SQDC at GE Aerospace, safety, quality, delivery, and cost in that order. That's really our operating mantra. AI is going to enable us to do a better job for our customers without question across all four

those critical dimensions of performance. And I think AI has to be factored in, including from a workforce standpoint, when you're talking about this re-industrialization push, this potential manufacturing renaissance here in the U.S. and what it's going to do to change and more quickly upskill those jobs for people that are going into the factories that are now getting built. In terms of that $30 million workforce development investments announced today between now and 2030, they're planning to help 10,000 people get trained not only for GE, but a the industry. And they're hiring right now to try and keep pace with demand. But we'll be hearing

more about the demand piece of this and supply chain as they continue to work through that headwind as well, which kind of factors back into the labor discussion we just had next week when they report earnings. All right. Well, perhaps a little boost for the labor market. Well, still ahead, Raymond James, Global Head of Private Capital Advisory on why she's worried the ongoing tariff turmoil will hurt everything from stocks to bonds and beyond. And Domino's, the big winners in the S&P 500 today. Find out why investors are having a pizza party with a stock when overtime returns. Back to overtime. Well, markets try to stage a comeback today as investors try to digest

the latest tariff headlines, but could concerns also spill over into private capital markets? Joining us now is Sunana Senha Haldia. She is a global head of private capital advisory. at Raymond James. Great to have you also here on set. So tricolor, some other stuff. Is this a canary in the coal mine? Well, it certainly could be. I think canary or not, we have to admit that private credit has been a huge inflow into the credit markets. It's now a mainstay option for borrowing. And with anything that becomes so mainstream, so quickly, there's going to be risks. Not every piece of paper will be underwritten properly or with all the risk taken into account, and that's what we're seeing with these first two bankruptcies.

There will be more. Is it going to be enough to be systemic? I don't think so because corporate balance sheets are really resilient at the moment. The fundamentals are super strong. But will we see more headlines coming through in the next couple of quarters, definitely? Well, how will we know if this is something to really be concerned about? Because if the heat goes up gradually, the frog can get boiled. Well, I think we need to look at what's happening at the fundamental level of the businesses,

how our cash flows doing, what's profitability doing, what is the balance sheet doing, and track those pretty carefully to see whether there's systemic risk or not. Right now, there isn't much of it. I mean, I think that there's still a lot of digestion of tariffs. I'm sure we'll get to that in a second. And there's a lot of digestion of what's happening on the macro side, because the macro evolution is just ever evolving for companies today, AI inclusive.

So all of that put to one side. Most companies have been shoring up for a good run here, and that's what we're seeing with all these guidance beats this week, and also back in April when we needed it. So you just mentioned it, tariffs. How are you navigating tariffs? What do investors need to understand about tariffs? How much of a wild card are tariffs?

So I do think that investors are underpricing tariff risk. So we've seen up until the tariffs were announced in April from Liberation Day through summer that a lot of companies undertook inventory stockpiling. So we've had all of that stockpile come down now, be run off. And so we're seeing those that don't have pricing power. our companies without pricing power are starting to pass through costs to consumers. And, and this is the big end, you also have a U.S. dollar impact because you've got dollar index at all-time lows for the year.

That makes import costs even higher instead of the salt on the wounds of those that have to deal with tariffs. So you have a double whammy here. Now, all tariff costs will not be passed through at one time to consumers for some kind of one-time hit. We've seen that over the last quarter because of inventories, because of careful, absorption by certain companies, those that could absorb have done so already. Now we're going to start seeing the pass through to consumers, and that's what we have to look for it. That's why

I think the Fed has a really line to walk here. Of course, there'll be a couple of cuts because of what's happening in the job market, but I don't think we should be betting on inflation going away. That was the next thing I was going to ask you is how you factor in the Fed. I actually thought the comments from Fed Chair Powell about the fact that maybe the balance sheet, they let that runoff, run off, if you will, incoming. weeks was very notable. It is notable. And I think that he's trying to walk this fine balance, but I don't think he's sure how it goes even with his own voting governors, as we've seen in the last minutes and what's happening in his own house, if you will. So I think that there is

going to be this balancing act between what's happening in the labor market. There is labor market softening. That's what he said today. I think that's what's going to give him the headroom to make that next cut or maybe even make the next two cuts. But beyond that, as we see pass through, potential pass-through. Nobody knows what the world looks like. But as you see what tariffs impacts is to the inflation and to consumer, he may have to work a different type of. All right. So, Nina, it's great to have you here on set. Thank you for joining us. Thanks for having me. Well, BlackRock shares rallying after an earnings and revenue beat. Up next, Mike Santoli breaks down what those results could mean for other asset management stocks.

Stay with us. Welcome back. Pizza stocks really delivering today. Shares of Papa John's soaring in overtime, up more than 14%. Reuters reporting Apollo Global made another offer to buy the company for a $64 a share. Buyout chatter has been in the markets recently. The stock was up nearly 10% yesterday, another 6% in today's session on speculation that this could be coming. All right. Well, now look at the asset management arena.

BlackRock shares popping on earnings, while BlackRock. Stone is showing a bit of reversal, his public asset management regaining the upper hand. Mike Santoli is back to explain, Mike. Yes, at least for the moment, Morgan. So yeah, BlackRock obviously started as part of Blackstone, if you go back, far enough, but had been the much bigger company, still the much bigger company, 13 and a half trillion under management. Blackstone, about a trillion dollars plus under management, but they now have reconverged in terms of their own market caps.

You see here that Blackstone really raced ahead in the excitement for how much private equity, private credit, real estate were going to be growing much faster than public equity, stocks, bonds, ETFs. You see a little bit of, again, a little bit of reconvergence here. It seems as if just the rising asset values across financial markets has definitely been a tailwind for Black Rock at this point. Now, take a look at some other publicly traded proxies for different parts of asset management and brokerage. broad capital market stocks, exchanges, asset managers, brokers. This is PSP. That's basically alternative asset managers, publicly traded, private equity and private capital firms. And then BizD is business development companies. They are basically direct private lenders. It's a yield play more than anything else. That's where the pain is, is in those kinds of direct private

credit areas. At least the market thinks there could be more than just anecdotal weakness there, guys. I mean, when I look at some of these, you know, the Blackstones and Apollos and KKRs of the world, I mean, they had a pretty decent run, at least up until recently, in part because of some the policy changes we've seen with 401Ks and the like. So could some of this also just be some consolidation, digestion, rotation. It's been some pretty conspicuous weakness. I think that one of the issues is they're not exiting their old investments as quickly or as lucratively as maybe people had thought before. Yes, they're going to have new access to being able to raise assets through other channels, but maybe that actually suggests they've kind of saturated their

traditional ones. And then, of course, you have this idea that maybe the credit markets, if they're not going to be too weak, then at least they've seen their best days. Maybe the market's wrong about this, but I do think it's been pretty apparent that there's been some concern growing in those areas. Okay. Mike Santoli, thank you. And of course, we are going to get more earnings, including more bank earnings, Bank of America, and a number of the regionals tomorrow as well. Yeah, interesting movement in some software stocks. We didn't mention that exactly off the top,

but I'm noticing CrowdStrike and Z-Scaler both down more than 3.5% today, along with some of the infrastructure names. Yeah, we get more Fed speak tomorrow too, and, of course, the Fed's beige book. Mixed day for markets, though, with the Dow finishing up 202 points, the S&P and NASDAQ both down fractionally. That's going to do it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts now.