Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Looking Ahead to Nvidia Earnings 11/18/25

Episode Date: November 18, 2025

The markets closed lower in a volatile session ahead of Wednesday’s Nvidia report, the most closely-watched earnings of the quarter and maybe the year. We have the technical read and what a top analyst is watching. Plus, Microsoft’s AI sales push and CEO of global industrial giant ABB on the key economic signals from around the world.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That bell marks the end of regulation, South Bow, winning the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange, flushing financial doing the honors at the NASDAQ, and it's another down day for stocks. The Dow down about 500 points, now down about $2,200 over its four-day losing streak. S&P 500 also down for the fourth straight day, NASDAQ losing more than a percent. Once again, the big-name tech stocks leading the way lower. Amazon and Microsoft getting hit after downgrades. Invidia falling ahead of its earnings tomorrow. More on those names coming up.

And despite these losses, most of the S&P sectors, though, are higher today. Communication services, health care, and energy among the leaders, and Bitcoin, bouncing back today after briefly falling below 90,000, still in the red for 2025, but only slightly. That's after a big rally earlier this year on hopes that President Trump would be the crypto president. Well, that's a scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Over the next hour, we're going to try to get some answers to a very simple question.

Will this market sell-off continue, or is it time to buy the dip? Same goes for Nvidia ahead of earnings tomorrow. That's about 24 hours and 19 minutes from now. Stock's down 14% from the all-time high it hit three weeks ago. So did that move lower the bar enough for a rebound rally? We're going to talk to the head of a very interesting company. Swiss industrial giant ABB, the company is trying to bring cleaner electricity to Europe and to the U.S., also focused on industrial automation.

Well, let's start with the markets, the big moves we've seen today. Seema Modi is at the New York Stock Exchange for us. Seema. Hey, John, another day we're tech-reli-dominated the tape. NASDAQ down over 1%. Big deals in the world of technology with Nvidia and Microsoft investing up to $15 billion in AI startup Anthropic. It wasn't enough to lift broader sentiment.

We saw Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, meta, all the hyperscalers trading down on those renewed concerns around CAPEX and how these deals will be funded. Worth noting Oracle ending in the green analysts at Baird cutting its price target on the stock to 315, but maintaining an outperform rating as that shareholder meeting just concluded. And Palatier remaining volatile ever since reporting earnings on November 3rd, the stock suffering another down day and breaking below its 50-day moving average. This as investors, countdown to Nvidia. Notable weakness in the semiconductor index with competitor AMD falling, memory player, micron AMD, all down between 2 to 4 percent in today's trade. John Morgan.

All right. Simomodi, thank you. Now let's turn to the bond market as President Trump is once again rattling the cage of Fed chair J. Powell, saying he has to be, quote, held back from firing Powell. Rick Santelli is in Chicago with the bond market reaction to those comments. And Rick, I think we also have to take a little trip around the world because Japan action has been particularly notable today as well. Oh, absolutely. The Japan action has been something to observe, that's for sure.

Multi-decade almost high yields on their 10-year sector. Their currency against the European currency is at a 33-year low, not good. They have political issues. They have fiscal issues. And many believe, of course, that their export economy is going to be teetering a bit in the future. They had negative GDP in the third quarter. Now, let's look at our markets, and yes, everybody was talking about Trump's comments about the Fed and the Fed chief. The only thing is markets paid little attention to it because yields actually moved higher after the 10 o'clock data. Look at 2's intends.

After that data came out, yields moved up, even though the entire curve, but 30-year bonds have a lower yield than yesterday's close. Do remember, the non-seasonally adjusted durables and factory orders were very strong. Traders were talking about that. If you look at 30-year bonds, which I just mentioned, they're hovering near seven-week-high closes. Why do I bring that up? It's not the benchmark? Because 30-year minus 10-year, known as the knob spread. You see it on that chart.

It's basically the widest it's been in two months. Traders love to watch this spread because sometimes when it widens out, it means longer rates are going to move higher and the curve may steepen. John, back to you. Rick Santelli, thank you. All the major averages are lower again today, but well off the lows of the session, despite the recent sell-off and concerns over stretch valuation. Our next guest expects the market to rally into year end. Joining us now is 314 research co-founder Warren Pyes. Warren, good to see you.

Is it going to take the Fed, though, stepping in here to get the markets back rallying? Yeah, I think that's good to be with you, John. I think that's our position, basically. If you look at the market and you try and tease out what's happening, the market peaked. On the day of the last Fed meeting, Powell kind of hawked it up. We've seen one cut come out of the market between now in 2026, even though, as Rick said, yields have been basically flat, longer out the curve. And I think that's really where the indigestion started.

I mean, there is, sentiment was also stretched as we came through the summer and really had no pullback. Something we noted to our clients is that the S&P 500 had gone 137 trading days without a 3% pullback until yesterday. So, I mean, it's been an incredible move. And this is, we have to take some froth out. The Fed did that. Ultimately, we expect the Fed to take their lead from like Chris Waller and his comments yesterday. And I think they will get back on the easing path before the December meeting.

But Warren, is that going to be enough to put a floor under equities here? We see some of the risk indicators, things like Bitcoin looking shakier. The VIX, I mean, it's still relatively quiet. But getting up in the 24 range, does something in the core economy or, in the holiday numbers, or do we even have to wait for Q4 earnings, have to sort of ratify that? Yeah, I mean, I think the NVIDIA call tomorrow is a big deal. We've had a hard time saying that the bottom is in until we see the NVIDIA reaction. And I mean, I think that's what we're looking for is the reaction to tomorrow. If you go back just in this little AI era that we've

been in since 2023, the market has really taken its queue within the next, like, say, seven trading days of the NVIDIA report, whatever direction NVIDIA moves, the market follows. And I mean, that's not groundbreaking stuff, but I think it's worth waiting and seeing what the reactions, because everybody knows they're going to meet, beat, and they're going to have a rosy outlook and everything like that. I think it's really all down to how the market responds. I think the market is set up to, you know, maybe there's a little choppiness, but I think we'll be bottoming here in the next week and then rallying into year end as some of the nervousness around AI kind of comes out of the market.

Small caps. Russell 2000 had it did in about face today and actually ended the day up about six-tenths of 1%. And if you look under the hood of the S&P, I mean, breath was not terrible here. It was sort of those high flyers that kind of led to the downside, but quite a few sectors actually finished in the green too. Is this rotation, is this trend, one that has legs here, even as you do see this consolidation among the highest flyers? Yeah. So I think that this is that whole case-shaped economy that we've been talking about and everybody's been talking about. And there are really, it's showing up in the market, right? So this is a weird year. There's only been 158 stocks that have outperformed the S&P 500. That's the third fewest on record going back 60 years. And even more interesting than that is that 173 stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 index by 20% or more. So there's more 20% lagger.

than there are stocks beating the S&P 500. So everyone's rooting for days like this to continue where you have a broad market. But I don't think that's going to happen. When you see years like this where there's a big spread, there's a narrow market and an up market, you get a chase for the winners into year-end. And so I know there's a lot of nervousness

and skittishness around AI and the Sam Malton interview and some of the other things. But ultimately when you see things like that, that reconstructs a little bit of the wall of worry that we were missing during the summer months. And I think ultimately you'll see, as much as nobody wants to see it that's a market participant, you're going to see big tech probably lead through your end at least. I just don't understand the desire when it comes to the Russell 2000 to buy small caps. I mean, I think you see positioning rotations like today.

I think it was a positioning rotation. But, I mean, Russell has such a needle that needs a threat. I mean, it needs persistently lower rates and strong growth. Those things don't really go together. So it's not something I want to own here. Okay. I know you do a lot of work on commodities as well. What is your research showing, whether it's crude oil, whether it's gold, some of the other big movers we've seen this year? Yeah, I mean, we've been bearish crude, bullish gold through the whole year. And there really

isn't much that changes here on that position. I mean, crude oil has, it's a big, it's a pressure relief valve for the market and for the Fed. So I think crude's down about 20% year to date. And that allows the Fed, going back to their opening comments, why will the Fed be able to lean on easing here. I think because crude oil is still giving them pass. That's OPEC supply. Maybe some of the things happening in the background with the Trump administration. Gold is, you hear things like Josh Hawley talking about sending out tariff checks to everybody in the working class today, $2,000 tariff checks. Doing something like that just reinforces this gold bull market. Yeah, we're digesting the big gains that we saw this year of gold,

but long term you have to have a big gold allocation in your portfolio. So, gold, not yet time to be bullish oil, still bearish there. Okay. Warren Pies, great to kick off the hour with you. Thanks for joining us. In addition to all the big tech worries today, Home Depot was actually the biggest contributor to the Dow's losses. It accounted for about 120 points. For more on Home Depot's results, let's bring in Courtney Reagan. Hi, Cort. Hi, Morgan. Yes, she's down about 6%.

And Home Depot hasn't missed earnings estimates for three quarters in a row since at least 1995, if it's ever happened before. That's as far as our records go back. And while revenue beat expectations that newly acquired GMS pro business made up $900 million of that revenue, total comparable sales coming in up, but just 0.2% in that largest U.S. segment, comp sales up just 0.1%. So yes, the fourth straight quarter of growth, albeit barely. The home improvement retailer also lowering its guidance for the full year with just one quarter left, which the executive has explained is both a function of the disappointment for the current third,

or for the third quarter that was just reported, and then low expectations for the current fourth quarter. I spoke briefly with Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail. He said there were really two big issues that pressured the results. He said the absence of storms, think hurricanes, puts pressure on categories like roofing, plywood, and generators. Comps felt meaningfully in October and that'll continue to pressure this current Q4. Secondly, McPhail said we had anticipated the demand would begin to accelerate gradually in the back half of the year as interest rates and mortgage rates eased, but what we saw was that ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand. So in this case,

Morgan, Home Depot is really pointing to external factors. And oftentimes you will hear analysts talk about how Home Depot is one of the best operators in retail. So we will see what happens and what goes forward here. Obviously, we knew that there were no big storms in the quarter, and so we knew that that potentially could be an issue, but investors still disappointed. Johnny Morgan. All right. Courtney, thank you. Well, coming out much more on the recent tech rec, including why analysts are concerned about what Microsoft is doing to address the worries. And while tech has tumbled so far in November, healthcare has grabbed the ball and it has run with it. It's up 6%. It's the best sector so far this month. Up next. More on one name that is

leading the way higher overtime is back in two. Welcome back to overtime Merck, helping lift the health care sector, also the Dow's best performer today. The company reporting positive results in a phase two trial of a new heart drug. It will now move on to a phase three study. Merck also raising its quarterly dividend by four cents per share and Deutsche Bank increasing its price target on the stock to 110 bucks per share. But maintaining its hold rating, nonetheless, you can see shares in Merck finishing today up nearly 4%. Yeah. And while Merck lifts the Dow, Microsoft weighing on it today, falling on a downgrade, but also

continue concerns about how all this AI spending is going to translate into sales. The company is holding its Ignite event today in San Francisco, and our Steve Kovac is there. Steve, what's the latest? Hey there, John. Yeah, I'm here at the Chase Arena. This is where the Warriors play exactly. And Judson Althoff, he's the commercial. CEO at Microsoft. He gave a huge keynote down there. And of course, the big news of the day was

that Anthropic deal. So just a quick recap of what's going on here. Anthropic is committing to spend $30 billion in compute between Microsoft and Nvidia. And in turn, you have Microsoft saying they're going to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, while Nvidia will invest up to $10 billion. And look, we can talk about the circular economy and all that kind of stuff like that. But I did talk to Althoff in an interview during Power Lunch and kind of asked him, you know, what's going on here? And the big theme he told me of this event is Microsoft is becoming more and more platform agnostic about which models it partners with. We're seeing increasing evidence that it is sort of divorcing itself from Open AI after that deal was reached two weeks ago with the opening eye. Now you see them signing this new one with Anthropic.

And by the way, Anthropic technology isn't just going to be. be running on the Azure Cloud servers, John. It's also going to be powering some of these products that were announced today. And it's not just anthropic. Gemini, that new version of Gemini that was announced is going to be integrated in some Microsoft products as well. So what we're really seeing here is Microsoft kind of spreading the risk around. We talk about open AI so often as the center of all these deals. But Microsoft is kind of expanding and casting a much wider net than some of these others in order to kind of mitigate some of the risk. that results in this Anthropic deal and so much more, John.

Well, see, to be fair, it's not a divorce exactly, right? It's more of an open marriage. They've got the Adirondack chairs in the front yard here. And there's a bunch of that going around in tech. You know that Amazon, AWS, just really launched Project Reneer, which is with Anthropic, but Anthropic is also with Microsoft. So there's a lot of circulation here. Microsoft also announced a bunch of new AI features,

so they're trying to use AI to power their own software growth at the same time, right? That's exactly right. And look, when we talk about CAP-X and where's the justification for all the spending is coming from, we kind of have a clear picture of how that works on the cloud side. I just detailed that. But it's less clear on the consumer-facing side. That means co-pilot. That means Agent 365, which is one of the new products announced here today,

where it's sort of like a dashboard customers can use to control, all their AI agents, sort of like HR for your AI agent, so to speak. But we don't know how much those products are going to cost. If it's additive to the co-pilot subscription and things like that, and Microsoft isn't really detailing that. It might go on a contract-by-contract basis. But they need to really step on the gas here, John, in order to show there's real revenue growth opportunity,

not just from the cloud. We know that Azure's growing like crazy. It's $100 billion-plus annual business. When are we going to start seeing that with co-pilot and these products? today. It's still very early, but there's a lot of competition going on as well, John, from Open AI, from others. The same company as Microsoft is partnering with, to your point, they're also competing with against the enterprise. All right. Steve Kovac, thank you, with shares of Microsoft down about 2.5% today. Well, three weeks ago, at a big event in Washington,

Jensen Wong vowed, I should say, the markets and NVIDIA stock rallied to an all-time high above $212.12 a share. Since then, the stock has tumbled nearly 15%. Has that set the stage for a post earnings rebound? We've got much more on Nvidia and the markets overall. That is coming up right here on overtime. Welcome back. Shares of Freeport, MacMaron, one of the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 today, finishing up about 2.5%. The company announcing plans to restart off. operations at a mine in Indonesia following a deadly accident there back in September. It's one of the biggest copper mines in the world.

Freeport also updating its copper, gold, and other commodity guidance. But that news helping Freeport-McMaran shares, but having a negative effect on the price of copper, John, also worth noting this is a company that saw those shares sell off pretty aggressively, so a bounce back here. Yeah, indeed. Well, I think the cliche is true in this case. All eyes actually are on Nvidia as the growth icon prepares to report earnings here on overtime tomorrow. Postal travel of the AI boom now faces another big expectations test.

Our senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here with a closer look. Mike? Yeah, John, all eyes either are or should be on Nvidia. Here's a cute way of thinking about how the stock has behaved. This is from Ned Davis research comparing the average daily percent move over the prior 100 days of Nvidia. That's this lower chart to Cisco in the years around the peak of the internet bubble. And if you consider that you had this kind of surge in volatility and then a kind of quiet period, and then it lifts off this quiet period. This is right now with NVIDIA. And this was, as you see here, mid-1998 for Cisco, which continued to get very jumpy and volatile and kind of emotional trading around it, even though it was

like almost two years until the stock price itself peaked. So, you know, it's not to say that volatility up always means stock price down. In fact, when you get very ablient markets, it's quite the opposite. We actually hadn't seen that until this very recent period where you have stocks up, volatility up. Something to keep in mind as we gauge the reaction, although I will say last quarter after Nvidia's earnings, I think the move the next day was less than 1%. So that was that quiet period right there. On valuation, look, it's been compressed because the earnings estimates keep going up. We know Nvidia shares are well off their highs, almost 15% off the high from late October. And right now, you know, sort of interestingly, or maybe coincidentally, now

in perfect parity with Microsoft's forward P.E. as well. So this is the period where the stock ran right ahead of the earnings ramping in a dramatic fashion for NVIDIA, and now earnings have caught up. Not very much of a premium. It's the high 20s P.E. to the overall market, which is like 22 at this point. So we'll see if this is about the market figuring out the growth is going to slow off a lower base, which of course it will naturally, or maybe it's sort of a better risk reward being set up for that report tomorrow. John. Well, Mike, back on that first chart, I almost overlooked the sort of difference in amplitude. You know, on the top, Cisco kind of dipped down in this period near where it had

before, but Nvidia's way below. What to make of that? It's interesting. I don't know that there's something specific except maybe the overall market within a super quiet phase coming into 1997. So I don't know if there's anything that that we can make of that. I mean, both of them were, if not the largest stock in the S&P. Cisco was close to it during that entire period of time. You probably didn't have quite as much kind of all on or all off index trading, ETF type, things like that. And he also did not have the overall market quite as concentrated it as it is right now. So I'm not sure what to make of it, except as they say, the earnings have ramps so much that everyone's on board with the idea that the fundamental picture is

good. It's just a matter of how much the stock sort of gets ahead of it at times. Okay. Mike Santoli. Thank you. We'll see a little bit later this hour. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News update with Bertha Coombs. Hi, Bertha. Hey, Morgan. Republican Senate leader John Thune says his chamber will try to work quickly to pass the bill forcing the release of the Justice Department's files on Jeffrey Epstein. The House voted for 427 to 1 to pass the bill earlier this afternoon. The bill requires the Attorney General to release in a searchable and downloadable format all unclassified records, documents, and investigative materials related to the late sex offender. The head of Airlines for America, a trade group representing major U.S. airlines will call on Congress to pay air traffic controllers during future government shutdowns.

Comes after the historic 43-day shutdown disrupted travel plans for millions of travelers because of controller absences. And Zooks announcing today it will begin allowing select San Francisco users to access its driverless vehicles there that pits the Amazon-owned Robotaxi service against Alphabet's Waymo for the first time in the same market. Zooks is different than other Robotaxies as it doesn't have a steering wheel. in the vehicle. I'll tell you, those robo taxis sometimes drive better on those San Francisco hills than some of the drivers I've had, the people. Sounds like you're speaking from personal experience. Bertha Coombs, thank you. Coming up, the challenges of powering the AI boom, providing the electricity needed, doing it with renewable sources. We're talking to the head

of Swiss industrial giant ABB about that and more right after this break. Welcome back to overtime. Another down day for stocks, the Dowen S&P falling for the fourth straight day. NASDAQ losing more than a percent. Stocks did try to stage a midday comeback but faded into the close. One stock making a big move in overtime on semi, launching a $6 billion share buyback program. You see it's up almost 4%. Constellation Energy also higher by about two and a half.

as the Trump administration says, it'll give the company a $1 billion federal loan to restart the three-mile island nuclear power plant. Well, the broader market poll back in November has been driven by investor anxieties about spending by companies on AI and whether the return on investment will ultimately be worth it. Now, couple that with inflation concerns, evolving trade dynamics, geopolitics, companies have a lot to deal with. Few companies have better insight into these underlying trends, though, than global industrial giant ABB, which has businesses in electrification, motion, and automation. So joining us now exclusively is ABB CEO Morton Virad as the company wraps its capital markets day. Morton, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome.

Thank you. So I do want to start with this big question because it is dominating so much of what we're seeing and hearing across the market and across companies and industries. And that is whether there's frothiness in all of this spending that we're seeing in AI, whether the return on investment is ultimately going to be worth it, and whether all of this build-out into AI infrastructure is going to be overdone. ABB is clearly well positioned to capture some of that spending. What are you seeing on the front lines right now? We see very strong activity in the data center segment. So the AI build-out of new capacity is happening all over the world,

and of course, especially here in the United States. So we don't see any slowdown at the moment. It's more getting ready for what's to come in the next two, three years. And then after that, we're talking about new technology there. We are also helping companies like Nvidia with those new architecture, all these massive data centers that are being planned out. So we don't see any slowdown, but there are massive numbers and really big numbers we're talking about. So I guess that's the uncertainty that is reflecting also in today's discussion.

Yeah, and whether it's electrification, whether it's the data center opportunity, whether it's some of the other areas of industrial automation that you're focused on. What are you seeing in geographies, in different end markets across the world right now? And how reflective is the growth picture in those markets of this AI arms race? Yeah, what we see is a massive trend towards electrification and automation overall. You know, electricity as energy source is growing more than double the pace of any other energy source. And that doesn't matter if we're talking about buildings, industries, or on transportation. So that kind of the future is clearly electric.

And that goes also across the board in Americas, in Europe, and also in Asia. So these are the long-term trend. So therefore, we as a company, we are very well positioned in this market. And therefore, also we're coming up when we had our capital market day here today in New Berlin, in Wisconsin. We're also talking about strong market, but also ABB as a strong company, doing well over the last years. But the best is yet to come for us because we are very confident about the market, but also our own position. Morton, particularly in electrification,

how exposed is ABB to a potential downshift, not pause, but downshift in just velocity of data center demand with everything that could happen in the global economy? Yeah, well, data center is an important part for us. It's the fastest growing market, but we also have to recognize it is, I would say, only 7% of the overall business for ABB.

So I love a data center market because it's really high, growth, but it's not the only one. And all markets are really going electric these days. That means that we are able to grow strong in when we talk about power generation, the whole utility. We need stronger grids all over the world. The power grid is getting outdated and unreliable, unfortunately, in too many places in the world.

That's a great opportunity of us where ABB can help with technologies there. And that is the opportunity that we have in front of us and we want to help that whole industrialization trend that we see. That is really driven by electrification. So that is where ABB can be a major helper to make that happen. Yeah. And of course today you issued updated guidance. You put more detail around the restructuring of the portfolio into three specific areas. You're also selling your robotics unit to SoftB. So what does that unlock? It gives us, as ABB, a very focused portfolio now with three what we call business areas of ABB with electrification or motion and automation. Those three units fits very well together.

So it's a focused and a streamlined portfolio that gives that long-term growth ambition that we have as a company with 5 to 7% growth over the cycle, which is more of maybe a 10-year period. So we are very confident about the future growth, but also updated over profitability targets today giving and increasing those from the 16 to 19 that we had in the past now to 18 to 22% of operational EBDA for the whole ABB group. So I believe that we are in a strong position and as I said, the best is yet to come from us. Okay. Morton Virad of ABB, thanks for joining us. Thank you.

Well, up next, the top technician deciphers the charts to show us if tech is showing any signs of a rebound. Plus, Nvidia will release its latest earnings right here on overtime tomorrow. A top analyst tells us how to trade the stock ahead of those results. That's coming up a little bit later here on Overtime. Welcome back to Overtime. Check out shares of Cloudflare well off the lows of the day, but closing down almost 3% after a widespread Internet outage that impacted X, Spotify, chat, GPT, and more. Cloudflare says it fixed the issue a little before 10 a.m. Eastern, and it was not caused by a cyber attack.

Well, let's get back to the markets. The major averages extended their losses today, but will the selling continue or could we see a bottom soon? Let's see what the charts are telling us. Joining us now is Jessica in Skip. She is the director of investor research at stockbrokers.com. Jessica, it's great to have you on the show. And let's start right there because there's been a lot of chatter about the technicals, especially after the S&P closed below its 50-day moving average. Yesterday, what are you seeing? Yeah, absolutely and great to see you, Morgan. I like to take a step back and look at a weekly view of the chart. If we look at the S&P 500, we're holding a very major defense line, which is the 13 weekly

moving average. Now, I'm calling this trading cycle bullish at risk. I like to look at the 13, 26, and 40 weekly moving averages over longer timeframes because it is part of one quarter worth of prices, two quarters worth of prices, and three quarters worth of prices. And what is happening right now, that first defense line is the 13 weekly moving average around 66.55, which represents one quarter worth of prices, which we have not erased. That is acting as support, and that is extremely important. Now, there is one signal that I did see on the chart, which is MACD that signaled a bearish crossover, which caused more

momentum off to this selloff. But if we do not see a weekly close above that 13 weekly moving average, so at the end of the week at 6655, then I would expect a number. another sell off to around 6435 to that next defense line, which is the 26 weekly moving average. Got it. 6655. I'm running this down. How does equal weight S&P compared to cap weighted? So this is really important to pay attention to. We've broken that defense line with the equal weight. And we've actually broken something that I've been watching for quite some time. I like to call this the ceiling of resistance. And it's around 7612. And that's a cause for concern for me. Now, the trading cycle for this one is more in a trading range.

I expect us to be range bound, really, until we break above the 7612. But the reason why this is of the uttermost importance, it's the ceiling that we created when tariffs and uncertainty started coming into the conversation, if we're marrying the technicals and the fundamentals and what's really driving the market. It's really erasing this broadening that we have been seeing. And if we do not see that overcome, that just means that the rally. would be rather narrow and we wouldn't see more broadening. So something to watch, exercise caution. But again, these are still the first defense line. So I'm not signaling that we're

bearish, we're bullish at risk, and in a trading range when we're looking at the equal weight. Jessica, how much attention are you paying to the Bitcoin charts as a reflection of risk appetite? And what does that say, if anything, about the broader market? I think it's extremely important. Bitcoin really falls in line what happens with high beta assets. And when we see that sell-off and we had the de-leveraging event, which I think really shook out a lot of the market. But I think it's important to pay attention to Bitcoin, gold, and the dollar. I noticed this trend when the dollar started weakening. We saw an uptick in Bitcoin and we saw an uptick in gold. But now we've seen some stabilization within the dollar. And that has also caused a

sell-off in gold and, of course, more high beta within Bitcoin. So I see it as a risk-off measure, but it's also important to look at the correlation in relative charts as well. Interesting stuff. Jessica Inskiff, thank you. Well, Nvidia shares have gotten crushed since hitting a record high last month. Up next, we're going to discuss whether tomorrow's earnings could be a buy-the-dip moment. Plus, we've got a mystery chart for you.

We're going to reveal it. Little hint here. keeps going and going. Overtime, we'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Shares of Energizer Holdings have their tongue on the battery today, and there's no buzz. The Bunny missing Wall Street's fourth quarter earnings estimates

and forecasting weaker than expected first quarter guidance, citing soft consumer demand and tariff costs. Well, InVin shares are down sharply. Since hitting an all-time high in late October, did the company and Jensen Huang already share all the good stuff? Christina Parts Nevelis is joining us now with more on NVIDIA as we go into the print tomorrow. Christina. I'm smiling because I was trying to think of a pun for John because he just had so many in that. But let's talk about the setup because it does feel a little bit like a repeat of last quarter with some recent shakiness, just in investors' confidence in the AI semi-trade.

We know that. We've been talking about the bubble fears. And that's also why you're seeing NVIDIA shares down about 10% month to date. shares have pretty much barely budged since the August earnings report underperform Broadcom, AMD, Intel, the SOX ETF, you can see on your screen there. So the fireworks just might be missing tomorrow, and that's because at the end of October, Nvidia CO revealed at a conference $500 billion in cumulative chip orders that would stretch through the end of next year. The stock then hit to about $212 next day, an all-time high, but has been down about 10%

since that date. And that was really just very specific for Nvidia to do, you know, breaking from the typical one quarter to time, guidance instead providing a forecast through all of next year, which, you know, maybe takes away some of the surprise right there. And there's another Goldilocks dynamic also at play with earnings.

If Nvidia's beat is too strong, it could amplify concerns that AI spending has become excessive. But if it's just a modest beat, let's just say hitting $2 billion, which is still impressive, investors might read that is growth, normalizing faster than expected. So Wednesday's report really becomes about validating what NVIDIA's CEO already said than actually revealing anything brand new. If, though, NVIDIA can give investors more clarity on the longer-term backlog, similar to what we

saw from competitors like AMD at its analyst day here at the NASDAQ or Broadcom talking about multi-year visibility, that could really shift sentiment. John? Okay, Christina, thank you. Well, as NVIDIA shares are down 14% since Jensen Wong's big event, in Washington late last month. Did that pullback create room for a post-earnings rally? Joining us now is Jordan Klein, tech media and telecom specialist at Missouho. Jordan, you know, Oracle popped and dropped

after September. Invidia is very different from Oracle though. So what could Jensen say to breeze some life back into the hopes and pump up the valuation here? Well, he could say a lot. I mean, obviously, everyone's going to kind of wait with bated breath in terms of how positive he sounds. And I think he'll be very positive in terms of demand, exceeding supply, their product roadmap being on track. And I do think what would be great is they typically don't guide beyond the next 90 days.

And trying to measure the success and growth of Nvidia on a 90-day or three-month guide is nearly impossible. If he was to give more specifics and insights into order visibility and their backlog beyond the next quarter to kind of help comfort investors like he did at the DC event a couple weeks ago about the 20 gigawatts of orders in the backlog, I think that would help people feel even more confident about the linearity of growth. It looks like the multiples on Microsoft and Nvidia aren't that far off of each other right now. I know you don't cover Microsoft, but what do you think investors should take away from that? Well, I think Nvidia is one of the most compelling tech stocks you can buy right now, because if you think about the multiple, it's actually below Microsoft, I think, in the low to mid-20s, if you look out on what investors I speak to expect the company to earn. And that's for much higher growth than you would get at a Microsoft.

Now, I like Microsoft a lot, too. I think it's one of the best position large-cap tech companies out there. But it's not growing at 40 to 50 percent off a massive base like Nvidia, nor does Microsoft generate upwards of 80 to 90 billion in free cash flow a year. So, again, I'm not saying these are mispriced, but I definitely think Nvidia pound for pound looks way too cheap for the growth and the opportunity that it presents. Jordan, I'm going to play devil's advocate because it seems like it's a foregone conclusion

among investors in the street coming into this print that Nvidia is going to beat and raise. The question, though, is how much and is it enough for investors to get excited and for the stock to break out of this range here? What happens if they don't beat and raise? Well, they'll beat and raise. The question is by how much. And I think that is the issue here is that the street has been so conditioned based on the last year and a half of this similar cadence of how much they beat and how much they guide up,

it is removed a lot of the surprise factor. So it's getting harder for the company to surprise by enough, meaning guide beyond just the typical, let's say, $2 billion of upside they typically guide to. So the stock really isn't moving a lot around the earnings. And that's why I tell smart investors don't worry so much about the guide. Think long. longer term. But that's why I think a lot of people are selling or trimming their position into tomorrow's earnings because they're fearful that they'll give the normal beat. It won't sustain a breakout move to the upside and then all hell breaks loose, meaning the AI trade starts to unwind faster and people don't want to be, you know, exposed to that. I think that's

short-term view, but that's just kind of where we are right now. All right. Jordan Klein, thank you for the shares of NVIDIA. Under pressure today, ahead of those earnings tomorrow, to his point. We will be all over those results tomorrow at 4.20 p.m. Eastern. That's when we're expecting them right here on overtime. Up next, Mike Santoli is back. He's going to break down the moves in junk bonds and treasuries, and what that could mean for this recent market turmoil. And as we had to break, CNBC spoke to small businesses across the country about the impact of tariffs, including the effect they're having on a sweet spot in the consumer space. Compartes has been in business since 1950.

It's one of the oldest confectionary companies in the United States that still makes everything from scratch by hand. We do chocolate for Hollywood movie premieres. We have a huge list of celebrity fans from Nicole Kidman to the Kardashians to the Beckhams. So we have a really rich Hollywood history with our company. I'm in a really good industry in this market when there's a lot of lot of uncertainty in the world where there's a lot of fluctuation people turn to comfort chocolate is comforting it's delicious everyone loves it so i have that working in my favor owning a chocolate

business we just grow year upon year but what's really propelled that growth is my sort of out of the chocolate box or out of the box collaborations 67 containers fell off a ship at the port of long Beach, a lot of my holiday packaging is on that container. My Advent calendars, which is actually my biggest product of the year, you know, we sell over 10,000 Advent calendars. They sell out every year. It could be four to six weeks until they have any information for me, puts me in a really bad position where I may not have Advent calendars this year. Welcome back to overtime. The market's moving fast today. Tech is a downside leader. Consumer cyclicals are holding up for now, and junk bonds are trying to get traction. So what message are these moves

sending to investors? Mike Santoli's back to break it all down. Mike? Yeah, Morgan, so what's been accomplished so far with this pullback we've seen rolling through the markets? Here's the NASDAQ 100. This, of course, has been kind of the locomotive of the three-year bull market. It has faltered to below its 50-day moving average. What I find more interesting is how far back in time that takes us at the lows today. We were back where we were. It's September 18th. That was when the day after the Fed meeting when they resumed rate cuts and we zoomed higher from there. So we're checking back on those assumptions that we were holding at those levels. You see the 200-day moving average, that's another 6 plus percent below.

That's more structural, hardcore trend support if we get there. I'd be surprised if we V bottom right off the 50-day average, but so far not a ton of damage done. Take a look at equal weight of consumer discretionary. It's been a problem child for the market for a little while here because it has been sending a little bit of a worrisome message about the consumer We're pretty much flat on a one-year basis now, but it did actually outperform today, so maybe it's trying to find some traction after some downside leadership. Now, finally, take a look at credit. This is the high-yield corporate debt ETF relative to a comparable Treasury ETF.

So this is high yield. It has faltered. Obviously, this is in price terms, but it's not really gotten to distress levels. That's not a very widespread between the performance of these two things yet, but it's definitely on the watch list of things that could erode and send a little bit more of a worry, worrisome, message, Morgan. So what I think I hear you saying is that so far right now, we're seeing a bit of an orderly pullback.

I am curious, CNN's Fear and Greed Index is approaching April levels. VIX three-month curd is in backwardation. I know we get Vickspiration tomorrow. Are these other things to watch? They are. And so things are falling into place in terms of what you like to see in terms of the makings of some kind of a snapback or contrarian signal for at least a tactical. Rally. You've also said the S&P 500 finally register kind of an oversold reading today.

Not a super extreme one, but in other words, you know, the pendulum has swung in that direction far enough that you have a plausible base to say that maybe the risk reward has improved. Obviously, extremes can always grow more extreme within reason. So that's why we watch it every day. All right. Mike Santoli. Thank you. Yep. Of course, we get Nvidia tomorrow, but we also get FOMC minutes tomorrow. that's going to be one to watch, given some of the more hawkish-leaning Fed speak we've been getting in recent days as well and what that's meant for the markets. But I mean, InVIDIA, it's kind of, that's, it's on overtime and that's ballgame. Question is, is it Cisco in 2000 or is it Apple in 2018?

I guess we're going to have to tune in. We're going to be here tomorrow to find out. And it's sort of kicking off what Adam Krista Fully calls the big three events because you got Nvidia, you got Walmart, and you got the September jobs report for what that's worth. It's going to do it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts now.