Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Markets, AI, and Year-End Plays 11/17/25

Episode Date: November 17, 2025

Kristina Partsinevelos recaps the market while Rick Santelli breaks down bond market moves and Mackenzie Sigalos explains Bitcoin’s “death cross.” Stephanie Aliaga from JPM Asset Management outlines the AI investment thesis, and Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies weighs in on NVIDIA earnings and Apple succession plans. Drew Pettit of Citi explores thematic baskets heading into year-end, and Dallas Tanner, CEO of Invitation Homes, provides insight on the housing market. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, that's the end of regulation. Sandrail, bringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. National Vision doing the honors at the NASDAQ. Stocks falling across the board today, sinking throughout the session. The Dow losing about 557 points it looks like here. Now roughly 1,700 points, and it's down 1,700 points in its three-day losing streak. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ, both down almost 1% tech among the worst performing sectors today. But financials and energy are both down even more for this session. The two worst performing stocks in the financial sector, Coinbase and Robin Hood, both falling along with Bitcoin. We've got more on the Crypto Crush coming up. And that's the scorecard on Wall Street, but winter stay late.

Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm John Ford alongside Morgan Brennan. And we're going to get you set for a very busy week for the markets. Invidia, of course, reports on Wednesday. But Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's also on the docket. And as we wait to hear what Home Depot and Lowe's tell us about the housing market, we will ask the CEO of Invitation Homes, what he is seeing in the single family space right now. That is coming up later on overtime. But let's start with the declines that we saw for stocks today.

Christina Parts and Nevelace joining us with more. Christina. Yeah, we started on firm footing in the morning, but it really came under increasing pressure as the session wore on. It was a low volume grind with market volume down about 10 to 20 percent depending on the sector. Mondays have been the slowest trading days over the last. last few months. And today's action really continued that trend. That's what you're seeing all of that read on the screen. If we move on to just tech, though, tech did, it was in the middle of the pact, but really it was communication services that stood out, and that was helped in part

by Alphabet, the parent of Google. You can see Alphabet shares closing 3% higher. Reason being is that it rallied after Berkshire Hathaway revealed that they took a large position. You also had separately Google announcing in a blog post that they're going to use AI for travel, search so Expedia shares actually fell following that announcement following about 7% almost 8% on the news and then you guys spoke about in video and video shares closed about two almost 2% lower Peter Thiel's hedge fund selling at stake in video during the third quarter following similar news from soft bank just last week in video also tends to sell off into earnings we saw that last quarter which are out

Wednesday afternoon and lastly albemal shares rose about look at that 2% so they were initially 5% higher came down after Argus research raises price target on the lithium manufacturer, citing improving prospects tied to lithium prices and clean energy demand despite five years of underperformance for this name. Guys? All right. Christina Parts Nevelas, thank you. Now that the government shutdown is over, we will finally get some key economic reports. The bond market is looking ahead to that. And our own Rick Santelli is in Chicago and he is as well. Rick. Yes, I'm looking forward to more data points we had to today. We had

empire coming better than expected. And we had construction spending, not only better than expected at up two tens, a positive revision to July. And even though these numbers are a bit in the rearview mirror, over time, we will play some catch up. Everybody, of course, looking for Thursday when we see some September jobs report information. Well, today, you know, we just heard about the big drop in stocks, but the Treasury complex largely ignored it. This chart goes back to last Wednesday, and they paid a little bit of attention, but for the most part, look at the right side. Interest rates mostly going higher to sideways, and the equities, well, you saw what they did today, right across the board. Now, if you look at a 12 hour of tens, once we popped into

our time zone, well, it was basically trading at 413 most of the session, very consolidated, low volume, just as the equity markets were. And finally, Fed Fund Futures, December contract, that's it. Right after the Fed's rate cut in October, you could see the price going down. That means the percentage of easing is going down. As it sits right now, it's hovering right around 40%. John, back to you. Rick Santelli, thank you. In the meantime, Bitcoin falling to its lowest level since April, barely hanging on to 90,000.

As we mentioned at the top, crypto-related stocks falling in sympathy. Mackenzie Sagalos joins us now from San Francisco. Mack. Hey, John. So this is the unraveling of what had been one of the most crowded, trades of the year. Bitcoin is now down nearly 30% from last month when it hit an all-time high above 126K. Institutional flows into spot ETFs have flipped sharply negative, notching their worst week since February. And at the same time, the rotation into crypto treasury stocks

once pitched as a more sophisticated, equity-wrapped way to hold Bitcoin or ether, it's also starting to unwind. Tom Lee's BitMine immersion and Michael Saylor's strategy both posting steep losses. You've also got the entire fintech proxy complex coming under pressure, Coinbase, Robin Hood, and even newer names like Figures, Circle, and Bullish are in sell-off mode. Add to that the technical picture, Bitcoin triggered a death cross over the weekend, which is a bearish momentum signal, and historically, if there's no fast rebound, another leg lower tends to follow. That appears to be what we're seeing play out right now, Morgan. All right, McKenzie Segalos, thank you. Technical's in focus in crypto and also in SPX and fixed income as well.

It's been a volatile month for big tech stocks, though. The Magnificent Seven Index is down 4% on rising valuation concerns. Should investors be concerned or view this as a potential buying opportunity? Well, joining us now right here on set, JPMorgan Asset Management, Global Market Strategist, Stephanie Alliaga. Stephanie, it's great to have you. Thanks for having. I'm looking at your notes. Market Outlook, AI lift and Economic Drift.

What does that mean? Right now, AI is provides. providing a very important and likely durable lift for the economy and markets. But beyond that momentum elsewhere is drifting. And I think that's a key, particularly when thinking about asset allocation. Where do we go when that AI lift now? It's getting difficult to price. Markets are struggling to price this technology, advancing at exponential speed.

But expectations are high. Investors have become almost like tiger parents for some of these MAG7 companies. Like, great isn't good enough. And given the concentration that we have in markets right now, any missteps, even if it's not a signal of fundamental distress, could lead to a significant amount of volatility. So we're still bullish on that lift from AI continuing to support portfolios going forward, but we're buckled up for some volatility along the way. Yeah, and of course it's a key week with Nvidia as seen as a read across the entire AI trade and ecosystem here. So in light of that, how are you counseling investors to position themselves? investors should really emphasize how do they build resiliency in portfolios we've had a significant run in this AI wave so far but going forward there's a lot of questions that we're still left to answer what is the useful life of these chips where are AI margins going to prove durable what is the end user demand for AI what is the ultimately going to amount to and who is it going to benefit so where to go we think diversifying within the AI value chain makes sense to infrastructure some of these powers

players diversifying across the market cap spectrum. Some of these smaller players are also going to be really important when thinking about the chip ecosystem, the power ecosystem and so forth, also diversifying globally. Investors that came into this year with an underweight in international, as most investors did, saw that impact portfolio performance at the end of the day. We don't want to be left off sides again. And then also, what are some assets that can help diversify against geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, and so forth? Maybe you can break down a couple of those things a little more. First, international. You say,

There are pockets that are interesting in Europe and in Asia. How are you defining those pockets and what makes them interesting? 85% of all of chip production happens in Asia. And despite the fact that policy today would like to change things, that effort is going to take time. And so I think a big question for investors is also, you know, the strength of AI being built in China, this question of robotics. Do you have some balance, some exposure to some of those themes? I think that's going to continue to be an important tailwind in emerging markets, Asia. And then in Europe, you have more cyclical factors at play.

You know, I think the growth tailwind from this defense spending still has more room to run. And overall, I mean, we still think that the U.S. dollar is about 10% overvalued relative in fair value terms. And so having some exposure to internationally priced assets that are going to maybe beat to a different drum slightly from U.S. mega-cap tech makes a lot of sense. And then on the AI value train, how are you treating software? Because some of the software space is kind of small cap, which hasn't been doing that well. A lot of it hasn't been getting a great valuation on the AI stuff. But eventually, if this AI thing works out, there are going to have to be some software winners. Absolutely.

And I think the challenge with software is that there's these three different layers. You have the infrastructure players, which are kind of your cloud service software companies. You have platform companies, and you also have your applications. The applications of platform are really going to come into greater view as enterprise AI investment grows. But the challenge right now is how do you price some of these AI services? Firms still don't know where they want to invest in AI, how they should invest in AI, where they're going to see the actual tangible productivity benefits. That should all, we think, be a key story over the next year or two.

But it's a big question. Is it going to be the incumbents in software right now that can continue to lead the charge which are the many startup companies in private markets right now, trying to be that AI solution for companies in all of these different niche markets. And how much pain before the payoff? Stephanie, thank you. Stephanie Aliyaga. Well, coming up, Delta shares sync as one analyst double downgrades Dell.

But not everyone agrees. In fact, nobody agrees. It's the only sell on the street. We're going to get into that in the Dell debate. And the chatter once again increasing that. Apple is getting ready for the end of the Tim Cook era. After 14 years of Cook, where could the company go next? Overtime's back in two.

Welcome back to overtime. Check out shares at Dell technology is closing down 8.5% almost today. As the stock gets a rare double downgrade, Morgan Stanley cutting it to underweight from overweight, basically from buy to sell. It's now the only cell rating on the street. analyst Eric Woodring writing memory is in the midst of a pricing super cycle driven by accelerating demand from hyperscalers. This is an emerging and potentially significant risk to 2026 earnings estimates. That said, the team of JP Morgan putting a positive catalyst watch on Dell saying it is, quote, positioned to benefit from near term momentum in

compute demand with a magnitude of revenue upside expected to outweigh the impact of a lower margin mix resulting in a better than expected earnings outlook. Hewlett Packard also mentioned in the Morgan Stanley Note getting hit today as well. And you could see those shares finishing today down almost 7%. But names such as Sandisk and Western Digital continue to build onto their huge year-to-date gains because, of course, they are in the memory business and you're seeing that in the share price today as well. John. Yes, indeed.

Speaking of tech, Wall Street is bracing for Nvidia's earnings results out on Wednesday. But is the company still best position for the AI boom? Well, joining us now is Ben Bahrain from Creative Strategies. Ben, people have either lost or not made a lot of money betting against Nvidia, but how much Tiger is still in the tank here? Yeah, we think a lot. I mean, on a couple of things. I mean, one, we're just witnessing sort of the shift from the Hopper era to the Blackwell era. And obviously, that moves to GPU clusters and clusters of compute, which is one of the things I think is most interesting is a lot.

lot of this infrastructure is going to go to these new data center builds. So when you look at the capacity, you know, the 50 plus gigawatts of IT load capacity that's either planned or under review for the next five years, that's greenfield growth. So it's not just where are we changing infrastructure and current data centers, it's what are we going to build in in racks for future data centers as well. And I think within that dynamic, NVIDIA remains one of the best position as we don't see demand slowing down. Now, how much wealth is there to share going forward off of NVIDIA's upside because right now it looks like there's some doubt or at least discomfort in the AI trade and it'll take some kind of catalyst at least positive or not

negative out of NVIDIA. It seems to get that going again. Yeah, I think what people will see is, you know, this expansion of just GPUs as well as dollars per rack that's coming into this new infrastructure. And I think you'll see more of these Frontier Labs benefit from that infrastructure in terms of tokens per watt and maximizing their dollars to increase to revenue. And I think as long as the hyperscalers continue to see money from their AI investments, that they'll continue to invest in that, in that new infrastructure. So I think there's still a lot of runway. Again, if you just look at the data center builds, the gigawatts that are coming online over the next three to five years, that is going to be filled with AI data center,

right, types of technology. So it's really who's going to be the biggest beneficiary of this greenfield growth? And again, for right now, it seems like Nvidia is the best position. Now, Ben, let's talk about Apple for a bit. A company you and I both literally grew up with. By my calculations, Tim Cook is now Apple's longest-serving CEO at 14 years, technically longer than Steve Jobs with CEO. Cook was also a key hire of jobs, getting Apple's logistics business straightened out after years of snafooze.

If there's a transition, when, really, there's a transition from Tim Cook as CEO. So you imagine you'll go to chairman or executive chairman. What does the pipeline of leadership look like there? Yeah, I would imagine, like you said, still some involvement from Tim Cuck in some capacity whenever this succession is going to take place. And I think, you know, they have a really deep bench, right? John Ternis has been mentioned. I think there was, you know, talk about Craig Federici. All of the folks in there that look like the next successors are loved by Apple.

And I think Apple has a really interesting opportunity where there is another hardware run in front of us, not just. you know, doing things like foldables or innovations in smartphones with things around AI wearables, smart glasses, evolution of vision pro to something like an AR glasses. So there's a long hardware cycle. And I think that's where you'll see some of this new leadership start to stand out is driving another hardware cycle for Apple in the next, you know, five or more years. What's your view on Apple's role as a hardware innovator? There's throughout the Tim Cook era been criticism of, oh, well, it's not like under Steve Jobs and they don't have this design or that. design, but the amount of profit that they've been able to generate, the skill that they've had

at managing inventory has really been unprecedented. And then the rollout of the retail stores, for example, what do you think the next CEO skill-wise is going to have, going to need to have versus a Tim Cook? Yeah, I mean, I think it's going to be a lot of hardware shops, and then again, a lot of software shops, right? If you just look at what's going to come down at the fundamentals for growing this company, both with hardware and software, and AI is the center, which I think everybody believes, you're going to want to merge all of those capabilities. I think they've done very good and that they remain well positioned from a supplier standpoint and supply chain. I don't think that becomes an issue even in a Tim Cook succession.

I think it's really going to be about how do you drive and innovate new hardware categories, which like I said, I think we're on the cusp of with AI as the center, but really merging those kind of new software chops or deeper software chops around AI to that hardware, I think is going to be the fundamentals for the next stage of growth for Apple. All right. Ben Bahrain from Creative Strategies. Thank you. Thank you. Well, today's slide wasn't just a tech sell-off. Financial's also down significantly. Up next. Mike Santoli is taking a look at a specific group within financials that could provide a hint of where we're headed next. And shares of Netflix down slightly today. Right around 110 bucks a share. It's stock split going into effect.

Ten shares for one. Overtime. We'll be right back. Welcome back. Could we be seeing the cracks in the credit complex? Fresh concerns are bubbling up, drawing needed attention to a growing pressure point in the financial sector. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is taking a look at this corner of the market for us. Mike. Yeah, Morgan, at this point, it's mostly accumulated anecdote. You know, we've seen a smattering of bankruptcy filing, some tainted by fraud, and then some stress in the private credit areas. today there was this word that Blue Owl might be kind of restricting withdrawals in one fund,

combining a couple of funds. The market's not waiting around, though, to see exactly how it develops because it's already rendering a verdict on the business model of collecting private assets and then deploying them. That's with these alt managers. And it's an ETF that covers a lot of the private equity and private credit firms. And you see it's diverged from the brokerage and exchanges part of the securities complex in the last few months. Massive underperformance. People are not quite sure what they're trying to price in, except it seems as if the best times for providing riskier credit may be in the past. The other thing is there has been fewer IPOs and other equity offerings than one might expect, given the level of the indexes. Take a look here at

IPO and secondary equity offerings in the tech area. This is all tech-related deals. It goes all the way back to the early 90s. Obviously, there's your internet bubble where you had upward of 500 tech IPOs and secondaries in a 12-month period. That other burst higher was the SPAC boom of 2021. And now it's really bumping along the bottom here. And there was a lot of sense out there that private equity might get more exits. You might see the buy side of the capital market start to get a greater appetite for new names. Hasn't happened just yet.

I don't again think this is the main stress on the group. But it is interesting how we all thought it was going to be animal spirits and money flowing throughout the system. And it's not quite come to fruition yet, Morgan. Yeah, I mean, all of this conversation after, you know, Jeff Gunlock came out and made comments as well that saying that the next big crisis in the financial market is going to come from private credit on a recent podcast. And he pointed to Renovo home partners and the fact that BlackRock just declared those loans worthless as it abruptly filed for bankruptcy. And we saw the auto lenders a couple weeks ago as well. I guess it raises the question when it comes to credit specifically, how quickly can the tide turn? Well, that's the issue, right?

It's not so much that in the observable public credit markets where you see corporate spreads, they still look relatively benign, it's much more of the opaque areas of private credit when you basically have one lender and that lender decides if it's going to be held on the books at par value or it's going to go to zero. So that is the issue. I think the bigger picture, I think, among investors, is a private credit came to feel like a product that was being sold to people

as opposed to something that was being demanded organically. And they were just looking for places to put it and looking for assets. And that maybe was a little bit of not the way to do it, so to speak. All right. Mike Santoli, thank you. Now it's time for a CNBC News update with McKenzie Seagalos. Mack.

Hey, John. The Department of Homeland Security said FEMA, chief of staff, Karen Evans, over the agency's new interim director. Evans replaces David Richardson, who resigned today after six months. Richardson faced criticism that he was frequently inaccessible, especially during the deadly floods in Texas over the 4th of July weekend. An appeals court panel questioned whether a judge who dismissed lawsuits

alleging a link between Tylenol and autism in children properly excluded expert testimony in a 2024 ruling. The court is weighing whether to reinstate nearly 500 lawsuits against the drugs manufacturer can view two months after, after the Trump administration linked autism to Tylenol use. Canview shares closed almost 3% lower today. And a new report says the Trump administration's restrictions on student visas led to a major drop in international enrollment

this fall, plunging 17% according to data from the Institute of International Education. That's the largest non-pandemic decline in the past 11 years and follows a 7% dip in 2024. Back to you. All right, huge source of revenue of those international students. One to watch for the colleges.

Mack, thank you. Now that the government shutdown is over, we'll start getting government economic data. But could the end of the shutdown also clear the way for a new IPO? And as AI nervousness gives the market indigestion, we've got you covered with city's top stock picks for all the other market narratives. Stay with us. Welcome back. Stocks lower across the board today. The third straight day of losses for the S&P 500 and for the down. industrials, a big tech with a bad day, NVIDIA falling into its earnings, Apple down following

reports that it's preparing for life after Tim Cook. Amazon and meta also both lower. Amazon tapped the bond markets. Google a bright spot in the Mag 7 today, though, Alphabet stock higher in reaction to Friday's news of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway building a stake in that company, those shares at all-time highs. Lockheed Martin is another one that started moving higher later in the day, finished up 1%. That's after President Trump said the U.S. approve the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, according to reports. This, of course, ahead of Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, visiting the White House tomorrow, where quite a few defense, trade, and tech items are expected to be, and energy items are expected to be on the

docket. Yeah. And all those stocks pulled back today. City is sticking with its bullish playbook, focusing on five stock selection narratives. AI at a reasonable price, positive ROE trend, inflecting growth, return on growth, cap-ex. and high earnings sharp. So let's bring in Drew Pettit from City to break this all down. Drew, welcome back. Last week, you told us the market's fully valued. This week you got some themes.

Which one of these do you think is the most counterintuitive? I would say the inflecting growth theme. It's funny. We're talking about the government reopening and in data, will it be good? Will it be bad? What will the Fed do? And everyone keeps talking about growth, growth, growth. it's actually the cyclicals that get really interesting next year.

So it's been three years where we've seen earnings in a downtrend. They're probably down 20% or more off their post-pandemic peak. And that's where you're going to see the best growth inflection in the next couple of years. So I'd say the cyclicals, not talked about a lot, but going to have a real trend change that should be the catalyst to get investors interested again. We're about to get a lot of data that we've been starred of for quite a while, government data, of course, but then also some sales data. through the holidays, the real-time stuff, then, of course, the earnings reports into January and February.

What's the most important data to feed into these narratives that's going to tell investors which way to go? So it's funny. It's going to be a little bit of a mosaic on the consumer. And then I'm going to say the tariff story. When you think about cyclical and inflecting growth, it's really, it's been so bad that as long as we don't see, data get much worse. If employment holds in, if spending is just okay, and companies find a way to manage the tariff impacts, out the other side, earnings look pretty good. So it's getting some of the bad in the rearview mirror and seeing those macros while maybe weaker, just not hitting recessionary types of levels. How much do technicals matter here, Drew? Look, we don't factor that

in at all on these themes. It's all fundamentally based. Yeah, price always matter. So technicals, in a sense, do matter. When you really think of the baskets and the themes that we're talking about, they're high beta. So if you have conviction that we're not going into recession, if growth companies can still get return on their capbacks, and compounders can, well, keep compounding earnings, you shouldn't be shy to have beta to those types of themes. And so I assume this stretches into 2026 as well. Yeah, it's honestly something you should be thinking about pulling, like, or sorry, putting money to work on pullbacks for these higher beta types of themes,

or if you have cash or excess fixed income allocation sitting on the sideline, this is the type of equity risk you want to buy. 2025, the end of this year, and into 2026, when you're fully valued, it means fundamentals and idiosyncratic stories matter. And real quick, Drew, explain the new defense because traditional defensives aren't working. Yeah, look, the problem is when you don't have beta, in an up market, yeah, it helps you on the pullbacks, but it takes way longer to recover. So our way of thinking about this is don't buy just low earnings volatility, buy relatively

attractive growth relative to that earnings volatility. So that's why we get to compounders in our high earnings sharp basket, not just low beta stocks. Okay, Drew Pettit. Thanks for joining us. Thanks, Morgan. Thanks, John. Well, another space company filing to go public, especially now that the government shutdown is over. York Space Systems. York is a prime contractor that makes and operates low-cost satellites for both government and commercial customers. In September, it delivered its largest batch of satellites to date to the U.S. military to help build a network for military data and missile warning missions. I recently asked founder and CEO Dirk Wallinger, what investors need to understand about the company and the industry overall?

When moving from billion-dollar satellites that take a decade to hundreds and thousands of satellites being delivered really quickly, what it requires is a strong industrial base and a strong supply chain. York has a good supply chain, and we buy from a lot of different folks, but those folks also sell to our competitors as well. So when you're looking at solid investments, it's typically who is in the supply chain that is providing to a lot of different primes and offering a lot of different capability to everyone, because that's fundamental. That's required not only for the prime manufacturer, prime contractors, but it's required for

the United States government and commercial customers as well. He refers to that as the picks and shovels when it comes to the space industry. Well, York reported a 59% jump in revenue for the first nine months of 2025. It also reported a narrowing loss as well. It's a majority owned by PE firm AE Industrial, which is the name behind Firefly Aerospace and Redwire, to name a few. But for more, check out Manifest Space, and you can get that conversation, which we taped during the government shut down and before this IPO filing wherever you get your podcasts.

Up next, we'll get the outlook for the housing market when we're joined by the CEO's single family leasing giant invitation homes. Plus, fast money's guide to me on how to trade Nvidia ahead of its earnings on Wednesday and two other names that are on the calendar that he will be paying extremely close attention to, and you arguably should as well. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get a check on the housing market. Buyers face elevated home prices, mortgage rates are stuck above 6%.

The latest weekly data, however, showing mortgage demand rising to its strongest pace since September. But further rate cuts by the Fed are now seeming less certain, at least for December. Joining us now for an exclusive interview is Invitation Home CEO Dallas Tanner. The company is the nation's largest owner of single-family rental houses. and today, hosting its first Investor Day since 2019, Dallas, it's great to have you on. Welcome. Hi, Morgan. Good to see you. So let's start right there, because affordability is still an issue here. Inventory is starting to ease, but still an issue. What does that mean for invitation homes?

Yeah, I mean, honestly, we'd like to see mortgage rates come in and see a little bit more housing transaction volume generally. I think the resale seller is sort of stuck at the moment. Our business, from a renewals perspective, is as strong as it's ever been. almost 80% of our customers are renewing their lease every year. It just feels like maybe the overall kind of housing consumer might be a little bit stuck, not sure what to do. The new lease market is definitely competitive. There's more, a little bit more product on the marketplace.

So you're seeing prices soften a little bit there. But by and large, it just sort of feels like there's just not the velocity that you'd like to see in the housing system right now. What is it going to take to unstuck it? I think a little cheaper mortgage rate, maybe a little bit better close. on where cost of capital is going to be for the average homeowner to both buy and sell their home. You think about it, and you drive any sort of neighborhood in this country, we spend a lot of time doing this. There's more homes that are for sale. You see more signage, and you can tell that people are sort of stuck, like, do I want to sell my home

and then have a 20 or 30 percent premium tick up and buy something different? And it just makes it a little bit tricky. And I think if you're renting today, you're pretty comfortable if you've got an affordable rate that you like and longevity in that sort of position that you're in. In our markets, it's still about $900 a month cheaper to lease a home from us than it would be to buy that same home in that marketplace today. Interesting. So at a time where both investors and the Fed are continuing to experience this dearth of economic data, when we talk about something like shelter prices, which is a big factor into inflation reports like CPI, what are you seeing in terms of rent prices? Well, rents are on the renewal side are really healthy. You know, you're seeing bumps between probably three and a half and five percent, depending on the time of the year. On the new lease side, we've seen stuff that was flat to, you know, slightly negative in the last quarter because there's just a bit more supply.

But remember, it's not just mortgage rates that are elevated and creating sort of some of these pricing pressures. Homeowners insurance, property tax, all these things have stacked, you know, pretty competitively over the last couple of years. And so you're all in payment structure, the monthly nut that somebody's got to try to figure out. It's gotten, you know, pretty elevated over the last couple of years. build to rent, which is a strategy you've leaned into, but maybe perhaps differently than some of your competitors. What's your outlook on that? What is the read-through for home builders and your ability to get more inventory for your consumers? We love the business. We love it if it's in the right parts of the country. If you're really deliberate about where you invest capital and why, it can be an awesome alternative to homeownership for customers. If you're stuck or kind of a little bit further out, you know, buying or building product, you may have a little bit tougher time leasing today.

You know, we've taken on about 3,000 units over the last couple of years. We now own or operate roughly 8,000 homes in built-to-rent communities. We have over 70 communities around the country. It's a little bit different customer, a little bit different segment, but it has tremendous amount of amenities and a lot of upside for people. So if you want to be down payment light, not be anchored to a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage or something that you feel a little bit uncertain about with the CPI pressures that you just talked about, it's an absolutely awesome alternative to that same experience, but being

down payment light. Yeah. And of course, housing-related stocks in general have been kind of taking on the chin. Invitation homes as well down, I think, 12% year-date. Given the fact that you did just come off of this investor day today, what is your message to Wall Street? Look, our message is we actually have a really great business. There's dislocation between what the public markets are kind of viewing real estate companies with versus where private market transactions are happening. Single-family rental companies could tell you that. Multifamily companies could tell you that. There's just a widespread. So I think we've got to control the controllables. We talked a lot about that today. We see a lot of upside in both the customer experience, things that we're anchoring in on,

you know, our lending programs, things like that are also really taking flight. There's a ton of opportunity. The public markets just need to figure out that the valuation's there. Okay. Dallas Tanner of Invitation Holmes. Thanks for joining me. Thanks. Good to see you. Well, InVindia shares falling more than 7% so far this month. Up next, fast money's Gaia Domion, whether that's a buying opportunity ahead of earnings on Wednesday. And as we head to break, check out some notable names hitting all-time highs today. Alphabet Johnson & Johnson, Monster Beverage, American Electric and Global Logistics Provider, Expediters International. We'll be right back.

Welcome back to overtime retailers and a big AI name take center stage on the earnings calendar this week. Home Depot, Bydo, Medtronic. Those are the big names set to report tomorrow. Invidia, Target, Lowe's, TJX. Palo Alto networks. Those are all at on Wednesday. And then Walmart Gap, raw stores, bath and bodyworks, and Intuit numbers will be released on Thursday. And we get BJ's wholesale closing out the week on Friday. Even though the government is back up and running, we still will not get tomorrow's scheduled reports on import prices, industrial production, and capacity utilization.

We will, though, finally get the September jobs report on Thursday for what that's worth. All right. Well, let's look at some of those key events this week. For that, we bring in Fast Money trader guy adami guy always good to see you monday or whatever day but this week is special we got invidia earnings what do you can you add to it if you've got some now is it too late if you don't i think you wait to add hi john hi hi hello morgan as well by the way i got a special tease for you after we're finished but i think you wait at this point the stock is not traded now particularly well over the last couple weeks obviously the broader market showing some concerns the numbers are going to be great. It's the magnitudes of the beats and the guides that I think you have to take

into consideration. That couple with the fact that unless they really crush it on the margin side, if you start to see them deterioration, this is an environment where you're not getting rewarded for just being in line. And I think I fear that that's what could happen here. All right. Well, we also get, you know, it's, we got a big Wednesday and Thursday guy, arguably super big from the close on Wednesday until the open on Thursday morning because we also get Walmart reporting Thursday before the bell. The stock's up 13% year-to-date. They just announced their succession plan. What are you watching for? I love Walmart. I mean, to me, this is one of the few companies that's been able to lever AI in a meaningful way, them and Facebook being two of the top ones. And look,

this stock has been hanging around the all-time high against the Costco, which made its all-time high back in February if your crack staff in EC could put up a longer-term, chart there. So Walmart hangs in. Costco doesn't. Problem is valuation, which everybody's going to knock them against. And last quarter of the stock sold off after earnings. There's a chance of that happens again. Any weakness, especially if this thing gets down to the low 90s, you buy Walmart, in my opinion, with both hands. And we've been steadfast on this. You have Timon from time to time. He's talked about it. We continue to be steadfast bulls in WMT. All right. Well, how do you feel about Home Depot and lows? Not good. Not good.

Well, I mean, they're already, you can't buy them when they're down? No, you can, but the problem is, I think, some of the home builders. I mean, specifically now the home builders, I think they're going to go lower from here. And it's not that I'm a hater. It's just that a couple things are going on. I think the unemployment rate is probably headed higher. I think the employment picture is not as good as I think some of the more enthusiastic people say. And for me, it's not about interest rates.

It's about the employment picture. And very quietly, you've had inventory start to build on the housing front. look at some of these names, they've really now vastly underperformed over the last month, month and a half. So all the big ones we talk about toll, Pulte homes, DHA, Linar, I think they're going lower from here. Okay. So in light of that, Wednesday, we also get October Fed Minutes. People are going to be calling through that. We also get the November flash PMIs on Friday. So the econ picture is going to factor in here to this market. What are you watching right now? How much are you factoring in the technicals? There's a lot of focus on 50-day moving average for the

S&P, whether we close below it, whether we fall further. I'm not one of these Golden Cross, Death Cross people, because if you look, the last time we had a Death Cross, that was the, as they say in the business, balls low of the market, and the market never looked back. I will say this, though. In terms of PMIs and ISMs, what I think you're seeing is on the ISM front, manufacturing seems to be slowing, inflation is still a problem, and I think the PMIs are going to tell the same story, which puts the Fed in a very difficult situation.

I think we're below 50% now for a December rate cut. I don't think the market is nearly factoring that in enough. I think the weakness in the broader market cannot be underestimated. And the fact that the VIX trades the way it has, by the way, Tim Seymour. Come over here, Tim. And Melissa Lee just walked. Tim wants to just sort of wave high. I think it suggests that there's another leg lower.

There's Tim Seymour, by the way. You see Tim? Of course we see Tim. By the way, I tease something. I know you want to get out of here, especially I'm sure you're like, cut, cut, cut, cut. You've got a temper today. For the first time ever, and ever's a long time, 19 years, Jim Kramer is going to be on the set of fast money in approximately eight minutes. So tune in for that.

Yeah. That's why I said you're going to get mad fast. You get it? Mad money, fast money, mad fast, guy adami. All right. John, I dig you. I dig Morgan. I dig your producers who hate me.

All the people back in EC. I miss you guys. Maybe one day I'll cruise out there and we'll hang out. Yeah. All right. You know something there's no one to forget it, John. You know what? Okay.

You don't want, I won't come out. That's fine. You don't see the smile on my face. I'm smiling. Here to ear, baby. Ear to ear. Ear to ear. All right.

Guy, we're looking forward to your special show. And now we'll say eight minutes, seven minutes. All right. Guy Dami, thank you. Health care. It's been significantly outperforming the broader market over the last two months. Up next, Mike Santoli's back. He's looking at whether the defensive sector is really the new leader on Wall

Street. And as we head to break, CNBC spoke to small businesses across the country about the impact of tariffs, including having to take out high interest loans to offset the added costs. From day one in 2016, we went viral and became a number one bestseller on Amazon, and then we ended up on Shark Tank. We did a big licensing deal, and now we're an over 20,000 stores with nine products. Most of the loans that we had to take out were predatory-style loans, like your merchant cash advance loans. To make things worse, the SBA stopped allowing merchant cash advance loans to be refinanced

into their product. So I'm stuck in this weird vacuum of debt because of these tariffs, and this year I was supposed to be very profitable. The company itself is worth a good amount so potentially I can go to private equity or get acquired. But I invented my product when I was 13 years old. This is a book I drew when I was 13. Imagine creating a product as a teenager launching the company bootstrapped and building

it into a multi-million dollar company that's on the shelves of Walmart and then having to sell it to a major corporation because of tariffs? That just seems ridiculous, you know? Welcome back to overtime. Defensive sectors are perking up, but don't mistake it for leadership. Scoreboard's still dominated by risk-on trades, and Mike Santoli's back to a closer look at the comeback in the safety trade. Mike?

Yeah, John, so there have been some stirrings in that direction. It's probably most pronounced in. health care, which everybody has now noticed, has really had this bout of rebound, comeback performance. You see here, XLV is the health care ETF, XLK is the tech sector. So this is over the course of six months, and you just see pretty definitive relative movements in opposite directions. But I do think it's just a little much to ask those types of sectors, the stable ones, the less cyclical ones, and the ones that are kind of lower volatility to really carry the load. They just don't make up that much of the index.

Take a look here at the low volatility segment of the S&P 500 relative to high beta. That's the most volatile stuff. So these are polar opposites. And you see, this was the tariff panic, right? So that's when cyclical stocks got really hit, semiconductors, all the aggressive parts of the market really got destroyed. So on a relative basis, low volatility held its value. But you just see the extremes of underperformance that were just coming off of here. It barely looks like anything.

It's not broken a trend. So what you really need is a pronounced growth scare for the economy for low volatility to really start working, along with benign interest rates and or, you know, even a recession or a bear market would do it too. So these are not the areas that you would expect to just sort of take the baton in an ongoing bull market when everything looks pretty good and start to lead the way, even if they can participate at some level. I mean, the XLV has just been a stinker compared to the S&P. overall. It's barely done anything in four years, right? Yes, absolutely. So this is what I'm saying. It's mostly about reversion to the mean from a very depressed state. And I think pretty much everybody was able to look at health care and say deeply out of favor. You've had some regulatory pressure that may be eased. The stocks look cheap. They're underowned. So therefore, some rotation

is getting some sponsorship in that area. And maybe it does continue for a while. It's obviously hard to say. But yes, without a doubt, it's much more about how much they were down. than anything else. And again, it's less than 10% of the S&P 500. It's unclear just exactly how much it can move the needle on a, on a market-wide basis here. We got market doubt ahead of Nvidia. It feels like we've been here before. We have. I mean, really even you go back to August, the last earnings report, and it was pretty similar. You had a little bit of chopping around ahead of the report. I guess that the hurdle is a little bit lower. You have Nvidia shares themselves, like 12% off their high. I'm not sure exactly how much we don't know.

about, you know, the forward guidance that NVIDIA is going to offer relative to, you know, all the other players in there that we've gotten. So it's interesting. I think we've got to clear it off the forward schedule and then see what the market is really priced in in this area. We definitely have softened up AI sentiment. Maybe that's a good thing. Mike Santoli. Thank you. Morgan, I don't know if anything in this market that we're seeing before NVIDIA matters, including this move lower in Bitcoin. Maybe risk comes back. Yeah, we'll have to say we know Bitcoin tends to be a proxy for what you're seeing in the as well and broader liquidity in the market. But we're going to continue to watch this and see whether

the rally or the stabilization, if you want to call it on Friday, has legs here and how much of this is profit taking or just defensive posturing ahead of Nvidia. Yeah. And of course, you've got to watch all the Mag 7 ahead of that as well, though the others have reported already. Yeah, we've had a lot of news on those fronts too. So we continue to watch it. That does it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts now.