Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Markets Brace for Trump Address, SpaceX IPO Buzz Builds and Nike’s Turnaround Gets Tested 4/1/26

Episode Date: April 1, 2026

Bob Diamond, CEO of Atlas Merchant Capital and former Barclays CEO, joins to assess market conditions, policy risk and where investors should be focusing now. The show also explores growing buzz around a potential SpaceX IPO and what a deal of that size could mean for markets and investor demand. Nike remains under pressure. Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser explains why he is sticking with a Buy rating even after lowering his price target and why the turnaround may take longer than expected. On the 50th anniversary of Apple’s founding, we look at the next stage of the company’s evolution. Sebastien Page, CIO of T. Rowe Price, outlines the broader investment landscape and how portfolios should be positioned. Christopher Verrone of Strategas walks through the technical setup and key levels investors should watch. Our Angelica Peebles reports on the FDA approval of Eli Lilly’s daily GLP-1 pill and what it could mean for the weight loss drug market and healthcare stocks. The episode closes with a look ahead at the next catalysts for markets. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell's bringing an end to the training day at the NYSC Blue Water Acquisition ringing the bell at the NASAC, GIC Capital 8, doing the honors. Welcome to closing bell overtime. We're locked from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Melissa Lee along with Mike Santoli. Sox, adding to yesterday's gains, a doubt up more than 200 points. The SNP 500 up nearly 1%. The NASDAQ up more than a percent, much more in the market straight ahead. On our radar at the close, Nike having its worst day in nearly two years. So why are so many analysts still believing in a turnaround? we'll ask one who is. Plus, we'll look at the charts to see where some big names you may own could be headed next. And Apple turns 50.

We'll look at the crucial next phase for that company. So, you know, a little bit of mild follow-through to the upside, Melissa. It wasn't quite as emphatic as yesterday's rally off the lows. It was definitely driven by Mega Cap Tech. A little bit of the safety, let's just make sure we're involved in case this rally continues. Also, closed like almost half percent off the intraday high. So still, I wouldn't say an all clear out there, but it's more about don't be too negative in case we manage to have things calm down. Oil is still hovering in the high 90s on WTO.

I mean, I was going to say, again, we're having this move higher in the markets, albeit sort of a tepid move because of volume was just not there, not surprising, given us a short trading week. But we didn't have that sort of confirmation by the other asset classes, particularly oil. I mean, Brent stills at 100, to your point. For sure. We're in this tricky spot where a lot of folks coming into the week said, well, we haven't quite seen this complete surrender and competition. Well, if you don't get that, you can certainly have the market put in a low and have a rally, but usually the rally itself is not going to have as much fuel to go on.

It hasn't been pulled back far enough to snap as far ahead. So we'll see. Obviously, we can be some kind of trading range for a little while here. $6,500 as a floor might make a lot of sense for the near term. Let's get more on today's biggest movers with Christina Parts and Evelas. Christina. Well, reshoring and infrastructure spending did lift heavy hitters like Caterpillar, while GE-Vernova, jumped on continued AI data center power needs all up over 2.5%. Energy you guys spoke about it,

fell still in the high 90s. Oil price, that's because of oil prices, I should say, and that's because energy dropped. And you have every single S&P energy name closing in the red with Diamondback, the worst in the NASDAQ 100. Materials were pretty split fertilizers like CF kept sliding, but gold miners such as Newmont, really shown today. And then you had a risk on really roaring back for some traders with momentum semi-stealing the show. Micron, Sandus, Western Digital, and Seagate. Those are the memory and storage stamps

that really tripled just last year on AI hype led the charge just over the little while today. Last week, there was some jitters over Google's compression memory technology and Open AI possibly over-ordering on memory. It seems like analysts across the board think those fears are overblown. Open AI's latest funding round means more cash

for high-end chips. These guys do supply. And then you also have optical plays like momentum, up about almost over 8% today, coherent as well. High beta names tied to next generation connectivity really got some love today. And then Intel rounded out the S&P 500 top movers, jumping after snapping up Apollo's 49% stake in an Irish fab for roughly $14.2 billion, partly debt funded. The purchase gives Intel full control of the advanced chip facility, boosting its turnaround plans and credit profile by 2020. 27 markets seem to like it, guys. All right, Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nevelas.

Well, she mentioned the energy sector, the worst performing group today. Let's get more on the moving oil prices. Energy prices with Pippa Stevens. Hey, Pippa. Hey, Melissa. Oil is modestly lower today ahead of President Trump's address tonight. It's hovering right around $100 per barrel. Now, consumers are focused on prices at the pump, topping $4,

but the rise into diesel prices is more worrisome and could have a larger inflationary impact. The national average now $5.49, up from $3. and 76 a month ago. Trains and trucks run on diesel, and when the prices rise, it's ultimately passed along to the consumer, almost like a hidden tax on the delivery of all goods. UPS's domestic ground surcharge is now at 27% up from 20.75%

at the beginning of the year, and the domestic air surcharges even higher at 30.75% up from 19.75 in January as jet fuel prices surge. Now, in California, diesel prices at a record $7.52, more than $2 above the national average. And that matters because as Lipout Oil Associates, Andy Lipout noted, it impacts all the containers that are unloaded at the port of Los Angeles and the port of Long Beach. Now, gas and diesel price spikes are much larger on the east and west coast than in the middle of the country, thanks to import and export dynamics. Gulf Energy's

Tom Closa noting that in the inventory report released today, gasoline imports to the East Coast or 99,000 barrels per day, it's usually about 400,000. Now, it could be because cargoes are going elsewhere. Next week's report will show if it's a trend or an outlier. Guys? Pippa, I'm curious what you make of the sort of the back and forth between the president and Iranian officials when it comes to the rhetoric surrounding the strait of Hormuz because it sounds very negative.

Like, the straits not going to open anytime soon, yet oil is still sort of holding on here. It's not moving significantly higher. I think it's pretty confusing. And the people that I speak to who are in this market say they don't really understand why prices aren't higher given what we're seeing in the physical market. And I think that is the key to continue looking at the physical market to see how it's actually, how the shortages are actually playing out.

Because, of course, the paper markets include hedging activity, hedge funds, other investors that are betting on the direction, whereas the physical prices show what people who are actually in this market are forecasting. And I think the fact that we had a cushion of source for the last month, given that the cargoes going to Asia were still being delivered. The last of those are now being delivered this week. that has provided a little bit of a cushion. Starting in a couple of weeks, we're going to start to see the real impacts.

We have already seen Asia is the hardest hits. We've already seen the impacts there. Then it starts to move to Africa, then to Europe, and then finally to the United States. And so if this does go on, and the rhetoric from the president versus Iran seems to be very, very much at odds with the future of the Strait of Hormuzan getting it open, it does seem like that the longer this goes on, the more the domino effects and the higher the prices will be and the tighter the product markets. Yeah, a lot of folks hinging on this idea that China is going to be instrumental in trying to make sure traffic starts flowing through there. We'll see if that plays out as a positive. Pippa, thank you. Let's turn to the bond market with Rick Santelli in Chicago, digesting some pretty good economic data and then this continued stock rally, Rick.

Absolutely, and it really was this morning about the job data, decent jobs from ADP, a little over 60,000. Retail sales number and the core retail sales, all better than expected. And as you look at a chart, you can clearly see that since last week's peaking of a 402 intraday high in twos and a 448 intraday high yield in tens, how much lower they have moved. Indeed, 432, we're down about 16 basis points as we trade right now in a 10 year. And at 380, we're down 22 basis points from the intraday highs in a two year. Now, if we look at the 210 spreading the dollar index, this is really fast. Look at that chart in three pieces. The left side is going sideways.

They're kind of both moving together. Right in the middle of the chart, you see the dollar index moving higher, and you see what's going on with the spread. Flattening, that makes perfect sense, because the two-year is a driving force in the flattening, and the dollar index driving force is also potential inflationary pressures due to crude oil. So we see now that the dollar's going down, and we are restapening the yield curve.

curve. And finally, you know, we can say that the S&P futures and the oil futures aren't on top of each other, but you could clearly see on that chart. They're still tracking each other. So we're down, what, little over a percent and a half in oil, and we see what the numbers are in the equities. Even though treasuries aren't paying as close of attention, we always have one eye on the stock market. Mike, Melissa, back to you. Rick, thanks, Rick Santali. President Trump set to address the nation tonight on the Iran war. Amen Javvers joins us from Washington with what we should expect. Amen. Hey, I'm Melissa. Iranian President Mazud Peseshikian has released an open letter to the American

people on social media ahead of President Trump's address to the nation tonight. In it, the Iranian leader says Iran has never in its modern history chosen the path of aggression and never initiated a war. And he says that portraying Iran as a threat is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful who want to sustain the arms industry and control strategic markets. Meanwhile, in his speech tonight, a White House official tells CNBC the president will give an operational update on the progress of Operation Epic Fury, which they say is meeting or exceeding all of its benchmarks. The official also says the president will reiterate that two or three week timetable for concluding the operation. We heard him say it on TV yesterday. Melissa, we'll see if he says

it again tonight. Amen, I'm curious because there's so much back and forth between what the president says, what Iranian leaders say, what Iran says through state media reports. And the current of traffic is just, I was just talking to PIPA about just the conflicting sort of nature of this whole thing. Do you think we're going to get any answers from the president in terms of what he is hearing, what is real, and what is sort of just out there in terms of reports? and he says, you know, she says sort of thing.

Well, look, I think you're right, Melissa, to be very skeptical in a moment like this. The noise to signal ratio is going to be very high. There's a lot of propaganda out there. There's a lot of signaling, messaging, all that kind of thing. These are two states that are talking past each other in large part in their public statements. We do know that there are these private conversations that are happening through Pakistani mediators. We don't know exactly what's being said in those. in those negotiations. So I think we should be a little bit humble about what we think we know

at this stage where this war is. But it does seem that there may be an effort underway to have some kind of ceasefire that involves reopening the straight or four moves. Whether either side can agree to the other's terms for that is the big question. Both sides have been saying that they feel that they have the strategic advantage. The question is, does what they believe match what they're saying, and we just don't have much of a way to know that right now. For sure. Yeah, as I mean, both sides maybe have different calculus in terms of what the likely cost would be to try to impose their version of things. Amen, thank you very much. So what are the ripple effects across the globe as markets and investors deal with the continued

fallout from the war? Joining us now here on set is Bob Diamond. He's founding partner in CEO of Atlas Merchant Capital, former CEO at Barclays. He was in the Middle East, visiting Abu Dhabi and Dubai in mid-March. Bob, good to see you. Good to see you, Mike. So, I mean, you were right up front there during the conflict, I guess, on some level. Markets trying to weigh what this means in terms of the global economy, in terms of capital flows, in terms of the future of the Middle East. Is it enough to rethink big picture or not yet? Listen, this is a, the GCC is an area that's become more and more important to the global economy. There are significant investors around the world outside of the GCC. I think over the last five or ten years, they've been doing a lot

more investing within the GCC as well. I think what struck me, and Mike, I've been going there for 30 years. The leadership, you know, leadership matters. And I think during a very, very difficult time, the leadership in terms of what's the approach to keeping schools open, something as simple as that. What's the importance of staying in touch with someone like me? in terms of the investments that they may have in the U.S. or outside of the GCC was very, very impressive. It's a challenging time. I hesitate to say this because I don't mean to make to belittle it, but it's business as usual as much as possible. It was very easy to get there.

Dubai has got flights from Emirates, you know, on a pretty regular schedule. The hotels are very engaging. Some people are working from home and they are quick to come in and meet you in the hotel lobby. And most people are working from the office. So they're trying to keep as much of the normality as possible in a very difficult situation. And I have nothing but respect for even more respect than I've had before for the leadership. In situations like these, Bob, it's when you turn overseas. We look at markets like the bond market, the oil market, which trades much more robustly around the clock versus the U.S. equity market.

And you're involved in 24-7 markets. I'm wondering how you think things would be different if we had a 24-7 market in this sort of environment where every headline, every post on true social or X, is traded and has results, price results. You know, Melissa, I think people haven't realized this. And my partner, David Shamus, and I have launched a publicly listed debt for hyper-liquid for the, the token hype. And what we have seen since this conflict began is, you know, as much as people are talking all the time about someday we'll have real world assets trade on chain, someday it'll be more than just crypto. Well, it's already here. It's oil. It's silver. It's gold. It's equities.

It's the S&P index as of last week. Trade XYZ is already trading in all of these markets. And I've got to tell you, the volumes are crazy. It's been a real boost. So billions. And if you look at the first weekend of this conflict, when so many people, for real reasons, I mean, these are not toy markets. These are real, this is real market infrastructure. 24-7, so it's Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday.

Instantaneous settlement under a second. Highly liquid. A fraction of the costs. and the ability to manage risk in oil and get price discovery over these weekends and in the evenings during this conflict has been very important to oil companies, very important to investors around the world, but also how about to airlines who are so reliant on the price of fuel for what they're doing? So it's been really, listen, we're serious about this because we're investors, and hyperliquid is really standing out. If you look at the beginning of the year, where since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's down 25 or 30%. That's speculation. You know, maybe it's gold.

And I think Bitcoin for many people is really, really serious, but it's not a business. It's more a store of value, right? Hyperliquid has revenues. It has volumes. It has a purpose, you know, for the financial markets. And it's been unbelievable to watch this progress over this period. Which to me makes hype the token a little more. I mean, there's a claim on cash flows, right?

I mean, in other words, you participate in the growth of the actual exchange, the actual markets, which is different from Bitcoin, which is sort of in a vague way. People think that tokenizing things will boost demand for Bitcoin, but you don't actually have, you know, direct claims on that. Well, a good example of that is if you look at 2025, their revenues were around $900 million, and 97% of that was used to acquire the native token hype back and in essence retire it. That's the economic equivalent in many ways of a corporation buying back shares as the same impact. So for people that buy hype, you know, they're looking very, very much at the kinds of things we look at as business people, right?

volumes, margins, revenues. And I think one of the great successes of why hype, to your point, has decoupled. It's up 50% this year with Bitcoin down 25% and Ethereum down, I think, 30 or 35%. So that's a decoupling. And it's based on the business, the revenues, introducing trading in oil, introducing business and all of these real-world assets, silver, oil, equities, you name it. And I think the thing that really excites me is, I think, two or three years from now, we're going to see all real world assets trading on chain. Maybe both, but certainly on chain

will have a portion of all assets, I think, over the next two to three years. Last question, since we have you, how do you think about the impact of this war on the U.S. economy and markets? Does what we're seeing in the markets, does that make sense to you? Listen, I've always thought, you look at bank earnings as an example. And you look at the big sales and trading operations, at the Goldman Sachs, the J.P. Morgan, the Jane Streets, the Citadel's. And when you see volatility, you love it, right? Well, not this kind of volatility.

It's a little bit of a rumor here, a tweet there, and I think what we're all looking for is a little bit more clarity about the plan. And I'm hoping tonight gives us some of that. But I think for the markets, easy to say, but the markets want some clarity. For sure. Bob, thanks for the time. Great to be. Thank you. Thank you. Bob Diamond. Spacex confidentially filing for an IPO today. Sources tell our David Faber. The company's reportedly seeking evaluation of around $1.75 trillion.

SpaceX is looking to raise as much as $75 billion, making it more than three times the size of the biggest U.S. IPO to date. Alibaba raised $22 billion in 2014, and Visa raised $18 billion in 2008. We could learn more in the coming weeks, as the company, reportedly will host an analyst day on April 21st and discussions with banks in early May. It's quite the paradox in a sense because the biggest ever IPO in terms of proceeds raised and yet it's a tiny sliver of the supposed market cap. Yeah. It's only going to float.

$75 billion. Yeah. And if they go for a $1.75 trillion valuation, it's just a few percent, right? So it's kind of this, you know, weird thing where they want to access a lot of capital. But that's only going to represent a small ownership stake. And then we also have these provisions where they may be getting fast-tracked into some of the big indexes and things like that. It will be interesting, though, to see, you know, they push this out. They wanted to go ahead of Open AI and Anthropic.

I mean, we hear reports that investors are sort of not souring, but reluctant to continue investing in Open AI. The appetite is not quite there for Open AI. So it'll be really interesting to see how this one is received versus an anthropic, and particularly in Open AI. Exactly. And the fact that there's that race kind of tells you that people are correct to worry about how much supply can be absorbed. Otherwise, they wouldn't care. We have $3 trillion in private market value based on their latest raise for those three companies, basically.

And that's, you know, 4 or 5% of the S&P 500 market cap. And if we're just one big IPO, we would be talking about the ATM effect from other, right, from other sort of AI plays. But we've got three. Yeah. So the impact could be even greater. No doubt about it. I mean, every one of these private closed-end funds or whatever that owns these private companies, if you own Anthropic, that's what makes you hot. It's the only one. It's the only variable, really. Well, shares of Nike plummeting today following earnings, it has lost two-thirds of its value over five years, yet more than half of Wall Street analysts still have the stock rated a buy.

We'll talk to one of them next. You're watching Closing Bell overtime live for the NASAC market site. Shares of R.H. Tumbling nearly 20% today. It's worst loss since last year's tariff turmoil. The company missed on earnings and revenue. Guidance was light as well. The company's CEO blaming it on tariffs, global uncertainty, and what he calls the most dire housing market in decades. Of course, the former restoration hardware, super high-end furniture,

a lot of it sourced outside the country. The CEO, we should, you know, this is sort of just an asterisk. He always sort of, he's very flambore. He's very, you know, he makes grand statements, not to say that anything that he's saying is not true. Right. They have had a difficult time in terms of all the different things layered on top of each other, tariffs, input costs, et cetera. And now this, in the housing market. So that is, you know, you should take that with a grain of salt still, you know, saying it's a worst housing market that he's ever seen 40 years.

Yeah. You know, it's true that somewhere between. Without a doubt. I think the housing market was worse in 2009 and 10 than his right. right now. But, you know, they're sticking to their kind of skewing to the very upper income households and trying to see if these massive showcase stores, you know, draw them in. Yeah, they have been spending a lot on that. Let's turn to another retail loser today. That would be Nike. The stock falling 15 percent following its earnings last night. While headline numbers

beat its guidance, Ms. S. Smith, the stock is now at an 11-year low as it continues to focus on a turnaround that brought back former CEO Elliott Hill in 2024. The company admitting on the call that parts of the turnaround are taking longer than expected. Our next guest has lowered his price target from 80 to 57, but still's got a buy rating on the stock. Let's bring in Williams Trading Senior Equity Analyst Sam Pozer. Sam, great to have you with us. Thank you for having me.

When does Nike run out, run to the end, the benefit of the doubt that so many Wall Street analysts are giving it? I mean, UBS, your competitor wrote today that basically there have been so many times over the past four years where it looked like things would inflect, the business would inflect near term, and it hasn't, it hasn't panned out so far. So why keep believing?

So this is very complicated. The prior CEO, by moving to such a direct-to-consumer-focused business, really axed a lot of the support mechanisms, a lot of wholesale business, and a lot of the support to that wholesale business, as well as a great deal of product development, specifically in the more moderate channel, but also got overaggressive with some of the classic product like Air Force One, Jordan, ones, and dunks.

The overall situation is that if you ever broke a bone in your body, you fell on the floor and broke your ankle, it can take years for it to heal or, you know, months. And in this case, they have a big, fracture that they're trying to fix. And if you talk to retailers in the U.S., pretty much across the board, they're telling you that they're seeing improvements in Nike. But there's a lot of hangover that they're still clearing through. I think they're doing the right things. And it's just taking longer. And I think China is the one that really was the worst of it, because I think they shifted gears over there and didn't invest under John Donahoe's reign at the top.

And it's just taking longer than like, but I do like what they're doing. So I understand what the stock's down today, and I'm not pounding the people on this, but I do think that they're moving in the right direction a bit more slowly than they'd like to see. Sam, in these years when Nike has been struggling under all the challenges you mentioned, has there been any damage to the brand, any impairment of their ability to go back and access the kind of market share they had before, given that it maybe arguably has become more crowded with new brands? That's a great question.

I think one of the main things that happened was they had a large group of people supporting wholesale. They called Eakins and some other groups that. that were like marketing support to the wholesale accounts, both in their offices and in the stores. And that was completely ripped apart, so they've been rebuilding that. And I spoke to one retailer the other day, who's a running retailer, and he said his Nike business, you know, was like 1% of his business. Now it's 9, and it's growing great. And that was the first place where they really brought back that kind of support.

Granted, there has to be great product and everything else. So I really look at this as a support mechanism. The new Jordan Retros are selling well. Air Force One's sell-through rates at full price are improving. They called out Air Max on the earnings call. So there's lots of green shoots going on, but it's not all there yet. And I think North America is moving along the fastest, and they're only about halfway it's built up in that support mechanism for businesses in Europe and the APLA, China is a different

model. So that's a different fix. All right. We'll continue to watch it. We're a couple of other analysts that did downgrade today. Maybe that's part of this process of the bar being lowered. Sam, good to talk to you. Thank you. Can I say one last thing? I think that, you know, if you thought it was good yesterday, the picture wasn't as pretty. But as I wrote in my note, you know, I had plenty opportunity to downgrade it, but the stock is acting a lot worse than I think the company is. I think the company is in much better shape than it was two, three years ago right now. All right. Noted, thanks, Sam Poser. All right, Apple, turning 50 today. Since then, the company's been at the forefront of some

major technological advancements, but at least for now, it doesn't seem to be a leader in AI. Well, Apple figured out once again. We'll discuss that next on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. Fifty years ago, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, founded Apple. It grew into one of the biggest companies in the world, currently worth nearly $4 trillion. But lately, investors have been asking, what have you done for me lately? McKenzie Segalos is looking at the challenges Apple is facing right now. Mac. So with AI, they haven't done much for me lately, Mike. And that's the problem that Tim Cook is looking to solve this year. Apple has a track record of not being first to market, but using that

late mover status to its advantage. They're overhauling Siri with the help of AI models that Google has spent years perfecting. And this is what Apple does. It partners, learns the ropes, and builds its own stack, usually winning over the consumer in the end. It did this with smartphones and MacBooks, even the tech inside, like chips. Right now, AI is still a cloud business. The models behind ChatGBT and Cloud are too big to run well on a phone.

But they're shrinking fast, and when that intelligence moves onto the device, the company that controls the hardware, operating system, and customer relationship has the advantage. That's Apple. So while Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet spend in the range of $100 to $200 billion in CAPX this year alone, Apple's betting it doesn't need to outspend everyone even if it owns the device that AI ultimately runs on. They're spending $14 billion in CAPX this year against more than $145 billion in liquid assets. Guys?

So we shouldn't expect much from the Worldwide Developers Conference in June because a lot of people had said that we should get some sort of update on their AI But we're saying basically here that Apple has been benefiting from not joining the fray in terms of the fight over an AI product. But what they're doing is that they're now capitalizing on what Gemini has built. So WWDC in June is when we might start to see this first reboot of Siri get an indication of what that would look like. iOS 27 would actually launch in September along with the new lineup of phones. And what the reporting indicates is that Siri would be power. Well, you know that they're working with Gemini to reboot what Siri is capable of, really maximize. what they can access and tap from on-screen context, what's on your phone.

And then separate to that, there's reporting to indicate that they would open up Siri to other chatbot. So if you're a clawed user, you'd be able to dock that on your phone. But it'll be a wave of different updates, potentially Siri offering more of a chatbot-like experience as well. Mackenzie, thanks. Mackenzie Sigalos. Lately, this is what investors like about Apple, the fact that they are not spending as much. It's suddenly become the least capital intensive of the mega-cap. you know, Mag 7 type stocks. In fact, the free cash flow yield because they're not spending it all in CapEx is appreciably higher than most of the competitors. You see this chart here. That's Apple.

That's the top line right there. It's above a 3% free cash flow yield. Now, the orange line's Microsoft and the free cash flow is there's only going up because the stock's crashing because basically the price has come down by a third in the last year. Their free cash flow is not very generous. And then, of course, alphabet meta intentionally spending it all. So we'll see how that works long term. The other thing that occurred to me in terms of AI as it hits Apple is you see these charts of new apps being created as Claude Code basically becomes in wide use. It's hockey stick. So all of these iOS apps and Google apps as well are just flooding in. So that theory is going to restock the services business.

And they're going to be the gateway to all of that. So they'll still win, I guess. They'll have a good shot. Yeah. Time now for CNBC News Update with Sima Modi. Hey, Sima. Hi, Melissa, Super Micro's co-founder pleaded not guilty to charges that he helped to illegally divert billions of dollars of Nvidia-powered servers to China in a New York court today. Wally Yilah is accused of sending the servers to Chinese customers in violation of U.S. export controls.

It is the highest profile crackdown on alleged smuggling of restricted AI technology to China. In other news, King Charles has been invited to address a joint session of Congress during his state visit to celebrate America's 250th anniversary. next month. It will be the first time a member of the British monarchy addresses Congress in more than 30 years. And Hershey says it will revert back to classic recipes in all Reese's products starting next year. The change comes after the grandson of Reese's founder criticized the company for using cheaper ingredients and diluting its chocolate levels. The chocolate maker acknowledging that some of the recipes had changed over the years as it tried to meet consumer demands, plus dealing with rising cocoa prices. Guys, back to you. All right, Tima, I'm. Thank you very much. The NASDAQ with a big bounce backup, 5% in just two days.

So where do the opportunities lie now? Over time. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. As stocks try to shake off the Iran War fallout, where should you turn to look for opportunities that may have appeared during this recent selloff? Joining us now is Sebastian Page from T.Rowe Price. Sebastian, it's good to see you. What's your take on, you know, we've had this nice little two-day comeback. We had a 9% reset. lower in the S&P 500. Does that seem like it did enough to sort of reset the market for the uncertainty that we're facing? I'm not sure, Mike. You know, I tell you two things on my mind. First of all, this will end. This two shall pass. But second, no one really knows how long it's going to last. And the news cycle changes every day and over the last two days. It sounds like it's going to end sooner than expected. But if you look at betting markets, Mike,

The probability from polymarkets that the Strait of Hermuz would be open by the end of April, last week was at 40%. Right now it's down to 16%. What's been interesting over the last two days is that we're talking about ending the war, but maybe letting the straight closed. So there's a lot of scenarios to work with Mike. In terms of positioning, we remain... neutral between stocks and bonds and we're looking through this.

In terms of the impact from the war, Sebastian, on whether it be equities or other asset classes, what is the number one concern? It sounds like it's oil because, I mean, if we said the war is going to end today and the strait is going to reopen tomorrow, many oil experts think that there will still be a premium, a higher risk premium embedded in anything that flows through the strait of Hormuz because of what just happened. and that that risk premium could actually last in these exports for longer than we think. We're not talking months.

We're talking perhaps years. If that is the case, I mean, how do things go back to, quote, unquote, normal when it comes to your view of stocks and how they should be valued? I could not agree more, Melissa. We don't know how long this is going to last. But as market participants, we need to understand the damage that has already been done. And it's a little curious to me that the two-year inflation swap is at only 2.8%. I agree with you. I don't think we stabilize quickly back to normal levels of inflation.

It's a slow-moving macroeconomic chain. It starts with geopolitics, and yes, oil is the number one factor. Then it flows into inflation. Then rates, because the Fed needs to react to control inflation, we're already pricing in hikes with the ECB. And then you tighten financial conditions, you start worrying about a growth shock. But we're kind of seeing this chain happening in slow motion. I don't want to sound too bearish because what's super interesting right now is in the background.

The economy is doing fine. You saw today retail sales were strong. Manufacturing PMI came out strong. If you get two, two and a half percent GDP growth, that's possible. And if you get three and a half percent inflation, which, again, I think we stabilize at a higher inflation level for a while here. You're talking about as high as 6 percent nominal growth. That's more nominal growth than you've had between the great financial crisis and COVID in any calendar year. So you have this background of still a robust economy, but you have to worry,

you're on the knife's edge for a growth shock. And then quickly, Sebastian, I mean, obviously the average stock is down more than 20 percent. And the leadership of this market up until, you know, late last year was AI-related tech, and that's even gone down more. So are there pockets of this market that you feel as if the risk reward has really improved a lot? We're long diversification. And we got into this scenario, not predicting the war, but we got in with inflation hedges in place. And I will say even if you don't have any inflation hedges in your portfolio, like just, you know,

having shorter duration, having cash, having real asset equities, I think it's still time. I hate saying things when oil has already gone up, but I think it's still time to add inflation hedges. We're still on the market broadening. If you look through this, Mike, you see on days where you talk about the war resolving and things getting a little bit better on the geopolitical side, you have small cap valuations compressed in the 20th percentile of their historical range relative to large cap. And you see them pop on those days a little bit earlier today as well.

So this is where the opportunities are. I still think investors that don't have inflation hedges, so look at that in a multi-asset portfolio. I still think the broadening trade works over the next six to 12 months if you look through this. And then I would stay neutral between stocks and bonds. Sebastian, great to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Sebastian Page.

Up next will break down the chart to see whether the market could be on the verge of a breakout. Welcome back to overtime. Our next guest says the recent rally likely brings us to May or June, and that bearishness has got to extreme. There are three names in particular that he is watching. Chris Verone is here with us. He is the chief market strategies at Stratigist research partners. Chris, let's dig right in. Yeah. Marriott, first chart. Yeah, you know, I think what's interesting, sometimes in this business, the less you know, and you would not have expect the travel stocks to hold up as well as I have over the last number of weeks. But Marriott is an example of a name that, you know, frankly, outperformed pre-war.

It's outperformed during the war. It's also outperformed as the market has rallied the last couple of days. So in the spirit of identifying strength, Mariah, an example of that, it went positive in our relative work. This is Marriott relative to the S&P earlier in the year. And the outperforming, frankly, has persisted. You're almost back to new relative highs. So certainly continued leadership from Marriott.

You could put Delta in that category as well. Looking at some of the industrials where we've also seen very good relative strength, if we can bring up the GEV chart, maker of gas turbines, much like Siemens Energy in Europe or Mitsubishi Heavy in Japan. This is already back at the highs, making new relative highs here as well. So in the spirit of what's worked before, what's worked during, and what has continued to outperform as the rally has taken hold, you the great example of that. And then again, kind of in the spirit of the less you know,

you would not have expected transports to have held up well. I'm going to show you the CSX chart here, one of the rails. This really began to turn in our work late last year. You know, our suspicion was this was turning because of some cyclical recovery in the economy, whether that holds or not we'll see in time, but it hasn't prevented this even in this environment from continuing to outperform. So this is CSX relative to the S&P, basically back at the highs and still leading. So Marriott, GEV, CSX, I think three examples of names that really have defied some of the logic here and continue to work. Chris, once you come on over, we do want to ask you about the broader markets, which we've seen a rally in the past couple of days. We were just back at last week levels.

Yeah. What do you make of the move? Listen, I think this is an oversold balance from, you know, what wasn't a deeply oversold condition, but certainly modestly oversold by late last week, early this week. 660 to 6,700 is probably the first real test here. We'll see how the market interacts. But if you look at the last couple days, it hasn't really been this kind of urgent buying, this escape philosophy. That may come in time, but I think you still have to, you know, spend your time identifying who's outperforming in this,

and also be very skeptical of names that are bouncing in weak trends that ultimately, may get overbought here overcoming week. So still pretty split. This exercise you did looking at what it out performed before during and after, so to speak, does it suggest you don't think the character of this market has really gone into some kind of a change in flexion point? You know, it doesn't seem like it, Mike, when you think about kind of what was really potent before all of this, the industrials really globally were very good. I like how they have held up for much of this. Certainly there are exceptions and corrections are not fun to sit through. But by and large,

The relative profile of the industrials globally is still intact. We have groups like machinery, aerospace and defense, road and rail, metals and mining, all get what we call oversold and uptrens over the last, call it two weeks. I like how they're responding to that. Yeah, the asset-heavy trend, I guess. Yeah. I'm going to re-engage. Good see, Chris.

Great see you. All right, Chris Ferron of Stratigas. Novo Nordus recently approved weight loss pill is getting a fresh dose of competition from rival Eli Lilly. Up next, we'll look at whether Lily. these new pill could be a game changer. Closing bill overtime live from the NASDAQ market site. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime.

Eli Lilly, one of the big winners in the S&P 500 today after winning FDA approval for its weight loss pill. Angelica Peebles spoke to the company's CEO and joins us now with more details. Hi, Angelica. Hey, Mike. Well, Lilly today says that this approval is the first of potentially 40 approvals around the world over the next year. And Lilly's CEO, Dave Rick, telling me with this pill, Lily can reach the planet. And that's because it's easier to make. manufacture this pill, then Lily's weekly shot Zeppown or Novo's Wagovi.

It does allow for scalability, and that will allow us to launch this globally on the first instance. So today you can get the oral simulogutate in the US, but you really can't get it elsewhere at the highest dose. This will be marketed around the world. As soon as we have regulatory approvals, we essentially have as much scale as we need to supply the world. world with an oral gLP1 inhibitor. And Rick says that if one in 10 Americans is on a gLP one, it's even less overseas. He estimates that in China, 0.5% of people are using a gLP one. And Lilly couldn't make enough shots to treat the masses in countries like China, India,

or Brazil, even if it wanted to. Cantor Fitzgerald analysts predict that there's going to be an even split between U.S. and international sales for Foundaio. And for Zepbound, it's closer to two-thirds U.S. and one-third XUS.S. So that's going to be a really interesting piece of this launch, guys. Angelica, what's the differences in the forecast for sales overall for the Wagovi pill versus Fondaio? It seems like an analyst are much more bullish about Lily's pill versus Novo. Is that because it's easier to manufacture and that the margins are better on that? It's

cost less to manufacture? Yeah, that's a big fact of this. And also it's because of the supply, right? So the last I saw by 2030 analysts are expecting about 15 million, let's say, for Fondaio. And that is still a fraction of what they expect for Zeppound and Moundjaro. But really the thing here is that they can bring this drug around the world. And so Rick's in that interview. He said that at this point, Wagovi pill is really just a U.S. drug. You can't get it everywhere else. And so that's really the key here.

Angelica, thanks. Angelica Peebles. Well, we're going to get our cue, presumably, tonight from the president. I mean, the market has definitely made a, you know, a decent statement that perhaps the low is in, if we can have some kind of confidence in de-escalation. And, of course, we've got to make sure oil ratifies whatever stocks do from here. All right, that's going to do it for overtime tonight. That's when he starts right after this quick break.