Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Markets Cool on China as Washington Faces Shutdown 10/27/25

Episode Date: October 27, 2025

Markets are responding to signs of easing U.S.–China tensions while investors also weigh risks from the ongoing government shutdown. Former OMB Director Mick Mulvaney discusses the political backdrop and potential market fallout. Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab breaks down the latest Fed and bond market signals, and Ray Wang of Constellation Research looks ahead to a major week of mega-cap tech earnings. We also cover Whirlpool and NXP results and speak with Jon Cherry, CEO of Perpetua Resources, about receiving the first investment from JPMorgan’s new strategic fund, before looking to the week ahead with Tim Seymour. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, that bell marks the end of regulation. Northern Trust Asset Management. We're going to close in bed to New York Stock Exchange. LB Pharmaceuticals doing the honors at the NASDAQ. It's another big day of records for the major averages. S&P 500 topping 6800 at the close for the first time. 23,600, a new milestone for the NASDAQ. The Dow at a record above 47,500, very close to a record with the Russell.

Going to be a photo finish there. It is a monster week of Mag 7 earnings. That group leading the way today, big gains for Google, Tesla, and Invidia, the best performing sectors, comm services led by Google, Tesla giving a boost to consumer discretionary, and chip stocks leading the tech sector higher, Nvidia helping there, and so is a big gain, 11% for Qualcomm, the company announcing new AI server chips to compete with Invidia. Stocks having a second best day of the year, but still not back to all-time highs from June of 2024.

And there's evidence the risk on trade is still. Still alive. Bitcoin rising above $115,000 while gold is lower again today, barely holding on to $4,000 an ounce after hitting a record of 4374 last Monday. Well, that's a scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. While the broader markets jump to record highs on hopes about a U.S.-China trade talks, rare earth stocks are sinking tighter export controls by China had been a positive for these names, but big losses today in anticipation of that deal later this week, except for perpetua resources. That stock gaining is J.P. Morgan and Agnico Eagle are

investing a combined $250 million in perpetua. We're going to be talking to the company's CEO later this hour. And it's a huge week of potential sparks for this market. Five of the Mag 7 names reporting representing a quarter of the S&P 500s market cap. And there's a Fed meeting and a decision coming Wednesday. We'll get you set for all the big stuff. But let's begin today with the main catalyst for this record rally. Progress on trade talks with China ahead of Thursday's Trump Xi meeting. Our Amen Jabbers joins us from Washington with the latest. Yeah, John, an update quickly on a story that we brought you earlier today. Mexico's President Claudia Scheinbaum saying in a news conference today that President Trump has agreed to delay

the deadline for Mexico trade talks by a few weeks. The Mexican president said she spoke with Trump by phone on Saturday about trade, but an administration official texted me this hour to dispute that characterization saying there was no mention of an extension, only that both countries would work together in the coming weeks to complete the deal. So given that a 90-day extension last granted by President Trump expires Wednesday, this would appear to take some of the pressure off of that timeline, whether it's an official extension or not. We'll get some more clarity on that. And meanwhile in Tokyo this morning, the president began with a handshake and a courtesy visit with the emperor and later is going to have a meeting with the new Japanese prime minister, Sana Takiichi, who was the first woman to hold that role in Japan. On Air Force One, President Trump spoke extensively with reporters, but he said he didn't want to share details of what officials are calling a framework economic agreement between the U.S. and China that could be signed by President Trump and Chinese Xi Jinping later this week.

I don't want to tell you what the understanding is because what we understood yesterday or two days ago or even today is not going to be necessarily what it's going to be in two days. We're going to have a great talk. I have a lot of respect for presidency. I like him a lot. He likes me a lot, I believe, and respects me. And I think he respects our country. So we expect to see two big items on the agenda this evening when the Asian work day begins on

Tuesday morning there. that meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister, as well as a business event with CEOs. Not exactly clear yet who's going to be attending, but it should be an all-star list of executives on hand for the event, guys. Back over to you. All right. Amen Chavez, thank you. For more on trade, China, the latest on the government shutdown.

Let's bring in Mick Mulvaney. He is the former White House chief of staff and former director of the OMB under President Trump's first administration. Mick, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. Hey, Morgan. Thanks for having me. So we've got a lot to cover with you today. But first, let's start with China, which seems to be getting a lot of the focus from investors today.

This framework agreement, what are you anticipating, especially since we have seen this erosion of relations between the two countries? And I don't know that we're really going to go back to where we were even just six months ago. Yeah, I don't think you're going back to the warm fuzzies anytime soon. I also don't think you're going to a full-blown trade war. You know, we used to describe the relationship with the Soviet Union in the 50s, 60s and 70s as the Cold War. sort of achieved this cold peace with the Chinese. I don't expect a full-brown agreement. I think you're going to hear the word framework emphasized a lot because that leaves a lot of negotiating room. When Xi and Trump get together, they're going to have to announce something. You cannot

have such a highly touted meeting and not have something to show for it. So there'll be something that comes out of these meetings. But I don't think you'll see anything close to a comprehensive deal and certainly not a final deal. So frameworks are mostly what we'll see coming out of the next several days. So in light of that, should be focusing more attention elsewhere. Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, final details around a Korea trade deal this week, potentially. And then, of course, talk about Mexico. And I realize Amin Javers just batted some of that down. And even some talk about the possibility of a deal with Brazil.

Yeah, let's pick out a couple of those. The agreement, I think, where Malaysia is a lot bigger than folks realized. Part of that was a big part of that was rare earths, which Malaysia evidently has a good bit of those. There's also going to be some discussion. It's not getting much attention in Japan. Japan. Japan has been interested in rare earths for a long time. They've been a lot more concerned about the Chinese chokehold over rare earths that we have for several years now. So they're sort of ahead of us on the curve.

And you should expect Donald Trump to have that issue raised to him when he is in a meeting with the new Prime Minister Taki Ichi in Tokyo. The Japanese do have some rare earth resources. I was just there. One of the reasons I'm struggling through this interview, Morgan, I just got off a plane from Tokyo last night. I'm a little bit jet lagged. But in every single meeting I was in, they wanted to know whether or not the Americans might be interested in co-investing with the Japanese to develop Japanese domestic rare earth. So you should be hearing more about that, I would think, as well. Mick, I never would have known. John Ford here. Thanks for being on.

It's unclear who's going to get the political blame for this shutdown, which party. But some of the polling I've seen recently shows Republicans getting blame in the high 40s among independents and Democrats in the low 30s. That wouldn't be good if this were toward the end of 2026, from your perspective, I'm sure. So what matters the most economically in both messaging and what the president can do policy and executive move-wise to sort of alleviate some of these issues, regardless of what the Democrats end up doing here? Yeah, I take most of the polls on the shutdown and throw them away. No one ever asks the follow-up question, which is, do you blame some? somebody enough to change the way you're going to vote to the next election because the answer is zero. Look, I've been through long shutdowns in 2013. I was the OMB director during the long shutdown

in the history in 2019. It doesn't move the needle one way or the other in elections. And most elected officials know that. Look, I'm here in Washington, D.C., and I've got to tell you, it's, it's eerily quiet. I mean, I'm not sure how they're going to end a shutdown when they're not even here to talk to each other. I don't think either side has much interest right now in ending the shutdown. The Democrats like what they see in the polling, to your point. The Republicans like the fact that the executive authority under Donald Trump is going up dramatically during the shutdown. It's one of the things I think folks are missing is that all the Democrats who were complained about Donald Trump's overreach of his executive

authority, those Democrats have just given him now more authority because the Office of Management Budget essentially runs the government during a shutdown. But as things stand right now, short of, I think, a dramatic change at the airports. And that's what I would watch. The air traffic controllers are supposed to get paid tomorrow. Of course, they won't. They are out of sequence. sort of earlier than the other federal workers. When they don't get paid tomorrow, watch the delays, and I think that may end up driving lawmakers back to the negotiating table. Well, what's the most important thing you think OMB can accomplish during this period

that's not temporary that has longstanding impact for the country and for the economy? I think they have. I think they've gone through and started to sort of cull federal workers. Russ Vote was my deputy for several years at OMB. He and I used to sort of sit back late at night and say, well, wouldn't it be neat to have a government shutdown? we could actually use the power of this office to shrink the size of the government. They haven't done a lot of that yet, but they've started, you know, a couple, 10,000,

maybe permanent changes to the staff of the federal government. They could be more of that, the longer this drags on. I think that's one of the big things you should watch coming out of O&B. So in light of that, how closely should investors be watching and the public be watching the courts, whether it's AEPA with those opening arguments kicking off next week or on the labor side with some of these federal job cuts that have been happening and suits to respond to it. Yeah, the job cuts are not big enough to move the needle. I think the first round of 14,000 cuts was 0.002% of the federal workforce.

It's not enough to move the needle. Keep in mind, Barack Obama had a, we had a huge shutdown. I can't remember how many days it was in 2013. That fiscal quarter was Barack Obama's best GDP performance of his entire eight years in Congress. Government shutdowns don't really have that much. much of a direct impact on the size of the performance of the economy. You're not going to go into recession because of a government shutdown. That being said, if the airway, if the air travel shuts down, that could be a major, a major change to that. Yeah, that'll make people mad.

Mick Mulvaney. Thank you. Thanks y'all. Well, we're entering a huge stretch for your money. This is the biggest week of earnings season with the Fed meeting for the cherry on top of this Sunday. And it all comes with stocks at all-time highs. Up next, we're going to talk to Schwab's Lizanne Sonder. about this setup for the markets. And shares of Lulu Lemon hired today. After reaching a deal with the NFL, the stock is still down more than 50% this year. That's despite a 2% gain in trading this Monday. Is it ready to break out, though?

That's the key question. Overtimes back in two. Welcome back. World pool earnings are out, and it's a big beat on earnings. Revenue also coming in better than expected. Company also raising guidance for the full year, saying it is navigating the near-term unfavorable effects of tariffs, in particular saying it's being impacted by inventory loading from Asian competitors.

You can see those shares are about 1% right now. Well, while stocks rallied to record highs, bond yields did hold steady. The 10-year yield is sticking to 4%, just below 4% ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. And Rick Santelli is in Chicago. He has more on what we're seeing in the bond market. Hi, Rick. Hi, indeed. Today we had a lot of moving parts, but not necessarily a lot of moving markets.

We had 69 billion and two-year notes at 1130, 70 billion five-year notes at 1 o'clock Eastern. We'll finish up that supply tomorrow with 44 billion seven-year notes. And with all that supply, well, let's look at the charts. The curve flattened because short maturities, twos, threes, fives, they were all slightly higher in yield. The rest of the curve was slightly lower. Look at a 12-hour 10-year. After hitting its high water market, 4.04 percent before we came into our time zone, it basically started to slip. And if you open the chart, the last time we were up above 4% touching around 404,

was on the 16th of October. And you can see we're basically in a range slightly above, slightly below that 4%. Now, is trade talks start with China and try to deal with all the tariffs and trade issues of the day? I thought it would be really important to look at the dollar versus the onshore you want. And there's a year-to-day chart. We are hovering just above the lowest level of the year against that stronger you want. And when you think about China being an export economy, maybe the last thing they want is a strong currency. John Fort, back to you.

All right, Rick Santelli, thank you. Meantime, check out the packed week ahead. Five mag-seven names reporting. Those five alone represent more than a quarter of the S&P 500. Tomorrow we hear from a sixth mag-seven name when Jensen Huang gives a keynote at NVIDIA's annual developer conference. Wednesday, the Fed announces its latest interest rate decision. and Thursday President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet. Now, with all that going on, plus stocks at record highs, what should you be doing with your money to get ready?

Well, joining us now is Charles Schwab, chief investment strategist, Lizanne Sanders. Lizanne, great to have you, as always, for some perspective. Thanks, John. Let me back it up here and ask how important are both AI spending and the idea of AI spending for this market? And I mean both CAP-X from these big tech companies and evidence that they're showing that they're able to monetize that CAP-X. Well, you know, so far so good in terms of the spend and the ability to monetize it. I think what's the open question or the adopters of AI and at what point will those companies start to put meat on the bones in terms of an earnings benefit or productivity benefit or a profit margin benefit. And that's what that recent MIT survey showed that the companies that are bringing AI in.

to the mix or not yet seeing anything terribly concrete. So I'm paying attention to both sides of that. I think the other important factor as it relates to the CAPX, John, as you pointed out, the Magnificent 7 as a cohort represents almost a third of all S&P 500 CAPX. The one thing to be mindful of, though, is that free cash flow growth for that same cohort has actually gone from more than 60% positive year over, year, five quarters ago, now into slight negative territory. And you've got, you know, just starting to see an increase in companies that are announcing deals by utilizing debt as opposed to funding it out of cash flow. So those are some nuances that I'll be paying attention

to as well. And so this earning season, how important is this rule of 40, which is, I guess, the popular term this decade over the last few years, to signal how companies are balancing growth versus profitability. If you see that coming in with some of the larger players, does that suggest that the market is starting to pay attention to something different or that for most companies, that's still going to be really important? I think it's still somewhat important. I think what is the focus in the aggregate,

not just for the AI-related areas like tech and communication services, is the differential between top-line growth and bottom-line growth and the ability to maintain or even grow, profit margins. So if you look at so far this earning season, you've got four sectors out of the 11 that actually have a decelerating pace of or accelerating pace of, or accelerating pace of profit margins, which means six of a decelerating pace. One is about even relative to last year's profit margin. So in the aggregate, you've got just under 13 percent profit margins. That's better than expected leadership sectors in terms of stronger profit margins.

Tech is one of them, but so is financials, so are utilities, and basic materials. Actually, the other kind of duo alongside tech in the world of AI and the mega-cap tech-oriented names would be communication services. Beck's actually has a slight deceleration in the rate of profit margin growth. The other last thing I'd say is what's really important is just, the broader commentary we're getting from companies entering season to help sort of color the macro landscape in the absence of government issued data. So far, so good on that front, as it suggests still resilience on the part of the demand side of the economy. So how to think about the Fed.

We got this rate decision later this week, expectations that they're going to cut again, some growing expectations that you can even start to see further slowing down of quantitative tightening as well. I mean, just here in the last couple of minutes, CNBC, confirming that Amazon is set to announce the largest layoffs in company history at a time where we're not getting a lot of that federal data, how to balance the inflation piece of the equation versus the labor market piece of the equation and what that could mean, not just for the economy, but for markets moving forward. Yeah, clearly the labor market piece of it is why the Fed shifted back toward easier monetary

policy from the July of OMC meeting when they didn't do anything and they signaled that inflation was the bigger worry among their dual mandate. but then very clearly that shifted, even before the September meeting with Powell's speech at Jackson Hull, suggesting maybe the Fed's collective eyes were a little more keenly on the labor market side of things. Then you've, of course, had not just a couple months of bad jobs reports before the government shut down, but the big annual benchmark revision. I think that had more to do with immigration than some serious versus serious dislocations. Now we have the absence of data, so therefore the reliances on things like the PMIs and the regional Fed.

You know, it's eye-popping that Amazon announcement today. I'm not sure you can extrapolate that more broadly. I think it's a pretty easy call that the Fed will cut this week. I'm not sure it's such a layup that they'll continue, given that even though you could mathematically argue the Fed funds rate is in restrictive territory, it's hard to make that argument in terms of broader financial conditions, which are still quite easy alongside inflation that is still above target. So kind of a lock this week's meeting, I'm not sure it's a lock for the remainder of the year. Well, we've got a lot to look forward to. Lizanne Saunders. Thank you. Thank you. NXP Semiconductor earnings are out and they are coming in right in line with expectations,

revenue of $3.17 billion compared to an estimate of $3.16. NXP sees fourth quarter earnings, however, a penny short of what the street was expecting. Stock still up about a percent here in overtime. Well, coming up, we've got a little. lot more coming on the earnings front, and it's not just Mag 7. We're going to look at some of the big names reporting outside of those tech giants. Overtimes back in two. Welcome back to overtime. A record day for the markets is trade tensions with China ease, 300 points for the Dow. The S&P 500's first close above 6800 and well above 6,800, 675. There are 1.2%. The NASDAQ, the big outperformer, that gained nearly 2% today. Even the Russell 2000, setting a new

record at the close. Apple also rising to a record high. Look how close its market cap is now to $4 trillion. It's $3.98. Apple reports on Thursday. Take a look at gold, though. That trade has turned quickly on this one. It's down 8% in a week. It's now barely about $4,000 an ounce. But of course, that is after a torrid run higher, John. So perhaps not that surprising to see a breather for gold. Yeah, quite a run for gold. Well, time for a CMB. News update with Kate Rogers. Kate. John, the National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Melissa has

maximum sustained wind of 175 miles per hour as it continues its slow march toward Jamaica. That's stronger than earlier forecast for the dangerous Category 5 storm, which is now the strongest storm on the planet this year. Officials say Melissa expected to turn north

later today, which will determine where it will make landfall. The Trump administration lodged an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court today to allow the firing of the director of the U.S. Copyright Office. A federal court previously ruled against the termination. Shearra Permuter claims the president fired her in May because he disapproved of advice she gave to Congress

in a report related to artificial intelligence. And new federal inmate records show Sean Diddy Combs is expected to be released from prison in May, 2028, or roughly three years. A judge sentenced the music mogul to 50 months on two counts of interstate prostitution, which credit for time he served while awaiting trial. Now, Diddy's attorneys say they will appeal that sentence, John? Back over to you.

All right. Kate, thank you. Well, coming up, the biggest week of earning season with five of the Mag 7 Giants reporting, we'll get you set up for those results. And F5, making a big move lower, almost 10% here in overtime after reporting results this hour. A beat on the top and bottom with revenue of 810 million, non-gap net income at $257 million or $4.39 a share. The 2026 six guide, though, is the reason for the drop. Growth of zero to four percent impacted by a security breach the company disclosed two weeks ago. I spoke with CEO Francois Loco Dunu on the results. He says without the incident, the growth guide would have been mid-single digits.

The impact we expect is really a near-term impact that we think is more in the first couple of quarters of the year and then normalizing in the back half of the year. If you step back from the numbers, John, the momentum that we are actually. seeing in our business is very strong. You can look at the results we just printed today, an exceptional fourth quarter beating the top and bottom line, actually an exceptional 2025 fiscal year with double-digit growth for F5, the first time that we've reached $3 billion in revenue and over a billion dollars in operating profit. Welcome back to overtime. Well, Wall Street's attention this week goes to much more than the Fed

and President Trump's overseas trip. It is a blockbuster week of earnings with five of the MAG seven names reporting, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. Combined, they're nearly 27% of the S&P 500's market value. So what can we expect from these tech giants? Joining us now is Ray Wong from Constellation Research. Ray, good to see you.

So what matters more in these earnings to the overall market that the biggest players continue to spend on infrastructure and show confidence or that they show top line growth from AI, actually revenue coming in people paying. John, you're absolutely right. What's going on right now, and the big themes are in AI's question is, are we in the bubble or are there more orders? Every indication we have with channel checks shows that the AI revenue streams continue, but it's six out of the max, six out of the seven of the mag seven are paying for Nvidia plus additional three other companies. That's driving it, but we're starting to see the beginning of AI revenue, and that's what the street's looking at.

The second area is really about digital ads, and will the digital ads continue? Are we seeing the growth there, and all indications there look like there's some good numbers that are going to be there? And the last piece is really about energy consumption. Those are the three big trends I'm looking at when I think about the Mag 7 going forward into the next three quarters. Well, not one of the Mag 7, but Qualcomm sort of addressing at least two, if not three, of those three issues with the energy consumption and efficiency that their designs are necessary. known for, and then entering the AI server market, at least an area of it today, the stock getting a big pop. What's the most notable part of that announcement, do you think, and is

the pop warranted? It's definitely warranted. What's happening right now is every vendor out there is trying to figure out how to take something from Nvidia, whether it's Google through TPUs and yesterday last week's deals, or what's going on right now with Qualcomm. There is a mass rush to get energy consumption down, chip performance up, and to find an alternative to NVIDUS GPUs. So, Ray, whether it's Microsoft, whether it's Amazon, whether it's Alphabet, how should we be thinking about those cloud businesses, the competition between them and the role that AI will continue to play as they spend more and more money to build out those capabilities?

Morgan, you're absolutely right. They're intertwined. What we see, especially when you think about Microsoft, Amazon, Google, there's a race to get cloud market share. We're really looking at our RPOs. know what's going on in terms of those obligations. Oracle started that conversation a few weeks back talking about their RPO's, especially what they're doing with Stargate and some of the other big amounts that are there. We're going to see some massive growth as AI and cloud are

intertwined. There's going to be more cloud consumption as there's more AI consumption. If that number falls, then you know there's a decline in AI. But from what we're seeing is that number is going to be bigger than we can expect coming from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, and more importantly, other players in the market like Oracle and Corweave. When it comes to the innings we're in in AI, Is meta in a different one than some of the other names that we talk about? Meta is in a different game. You're definitely right there because what's happening on the meta side is what we're looking at is really their ability to take their models and apply to actually accelerate digital ads.

One of the things that's an untold story of meta is really the amount of AI they're using internally to drive down revenue operations. They'll try improve ad efficiency, improve coding efficiency. They're going to be the most AI-enabled company among the Mag 7 in terms of how they use AI to create efficiencies. and then how they'll use AI to drive cross-sell in digital advertising revenue. Now, outside of those big names, you say there are some important names to watch for Agentic AI, call out Salesforce ServiceNow and Oracle. We're going to get a Service Now report soon.

What's its position? What does it represent in the AI conversation right now? And what are you watching in its results? One of the biggest transformations at ServiceNow is that used to be the company where you standardize on workday and Salesforce and SAP and Oracle, and then you connect everything with ServiceNow. You're seeing the same thing happening in the Agentic AI revolution

where Service Now is playing a central role, them plus their future acquisition of Moveworks, gives them advantage to be able to connect the dots between all the different clouds. The most important piece is not Agentic AIA, but cross-platform, multi-agentic AI, the ability to connect different AI agents across different applications across different departments.

That's a hard area to do, and that's why it's really important to look at Service. now as they build those partnerships and work into those markets. Each one of those revenue lines at Service Now, whether it's customer experience or employee experience or security, is driving billions of dollars of revenue, and that's the flywheel that builds on top of their ITSM empire. Yeah, and certainly that's what Bill McDermott over at Service Now has been talking about.

Ray Wong, thank you. We covered a lot there. And what is peak earnings for both the S&B and NASDAQ this week. Well, up next, the CEO Perpetua Resources. This is an under-the-radar mining stock. just got the first investment from J.P. Morgan's new $1.5 trillion U.S. National Security Fund. He'll discuss his company's role in producing critical minerals used in making everything from solar panel to bullets. Well, plus will Boeing's recent bounceback remain strong after reporting earnings Wednesday?

Fast Money's team Seymour is going to give us the trade coming up on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. Wall Street waking up to a big deal in the biotech space, Novartis, buying avidity biosciences, which develops treatments for rare diseases for $12 billion or $72 a share. That's a 46% premium to its closing price on Friday. And it's the latest in a string of deals by big pharma companies to buy up biotex as they try to fill holes in their product pipelines. Recent deals include Novo Nordisk's $5.2 billion purchase of Akero therapeutics, Pfizer's $4.9 billion acquisition of MetSera and Sanofi's $9.1 billion deal for blueprint medicines. Meantime, check out the move lower and several rare earth stocks today,

getting hit after a trade deal framework, or the deal to create a trade work framework emerged over the weekend, and China could pause Chinese export controls on critical minerals. That would ease supply disruptions that had helped boost those names in recent weeks. MP Materials is not negative for the month. More than 35% off its all-time high that was hit just two weeks ago. One critical mineral stock that is higher, though, today in trading, perpetual. resources. The company receiving the first investment from J.P. Morgan's $1.5 trillion dollar national security investment fund. The fund is investing $75 million for a nearly 3%

stake in the company. Toronto-based gold miner Agniko Eagle is also investing $180 million. So you can see shares of perpetual, finished up 6.5% today. So joining us now for an exclusive interview is CEO of Perpetual Resources. John Cherry. John, welcome. Thank you. Glad to be here. So you're standing up, your development. You just started construction on a gold and antimony mine in Idaho. And for those who maybe aren't familiar, antimony is a critical mineral, and it's used in everything from bullets and other weapon systems to semiconductor manufacturing, solar panels, and flame retardant.

And we here in the U.S. just don't have a lot of it. And China slapped export controls on this as well a number of months ago. So what does this investment from J.P. Morgan and Agniko enable for you and how important is this critical mineral to U.S. supply chain build out? Well, first, those are great questions. So, look, we really appreciate the investment from these two world-class companies, both in the mining space with Agneco, as well as J.P. Morgan, really looking at the security and resilience initiative.

For many, many decades, we've offshoreed a lot of our critical mineral production. As a matter of fact, China over the last several decades, has spent over $57 billion to strategically secure critical minerals. for their national security. The U.S. hasn't done that. We are now kind of getting back in the game to do that. We're at the beginning of that. We have the only reserve of antimony in the United States.

This site actually used to produce antimony back during World War II and the Korean War. We're very excited. We broke around like you mentioned last week. And with this investment and these two great partners here, we're very excited to get this project moving along. So how quickly can you start to pull it out of the ground and perhaps just as importantly, how quickly can you refine it? So it'll take approximately three years to build the project, and this is part of the problem

with the U.S. We haven't invested in mining for many, many decades. On average, it's taken over 29 years from discovery to production to build a mine. We've started construction on our project, and in about three years we'll be producing these critical minerals and metals. Is this a moment, John, that you need to take advantage of with what's happened with the stock. It seems that, along with some rare earth's companies, these concerns about where the U.S.-China relationship is going has actually been a boon to the value of your stock. So are you thinking about ways to leverage that in order to achieve your strategic goals?

So look, we speak with the Department of Defense all the time. We have a very special form of antimony called antimony trisulfide, and that's the main ingredient that goes into 300 different munition products. The best thing that we can do is build this mine. And when you want to talk about securing a supply chain, the supply chain starts in the ground with mining. And we're building the only antimony mine in the country out of that only reserve. You're also going to be mining gold. So do want to get your thoughts on what we've been seeing in that market. Yeah, look, we're very excited about the gold. The gold is the economic engine for this project. This will be the largest independent gold producer in the nation. We'll produce about 460,

3,000 ounces of gold per year for the first four or five years of the mining project. The antimony is kind of the enabler in a critical mineral, which is really important. And the economics are actually driven by the gold on this project. As a matter of fact, the two of them play off very well together. The antimony will be insulated from price shocks because of the gold that we produce. The antimony comes out of the ground with the gold. We have to separate it from the gold anyway. So we have this great byproduct.

In today's antimony prices, we would actually be a negative cash cost. producer to produce all of that goal. Huh. Interesting. So I guess I take a step back and just look at the mining industry here in the U.S. overall, especially after many years of it being de-incentivized. Do you think we're moving into another renaissance here? And if so, are there enough end users for all of these critical minerals that come out of the ground? That's a great question. So I've been in the industry for 36 years. Almost my entire career, I've spent designing, permitting, and building minds exclusively in the United States. And I've never really seen the confluence of events right

here. And I think finally the country has realized that we need to reinvest. If we want to be in control of our own destiny and be in control of our own national security, we have to start the supply chain here right at home. And we're beginning to see that happen now. All right. John Cherry, thank you from Perpetua. Well, Visa's the big name on tomorrow's overtime earnings calendar. And up next, Fast Money's Tim Seymour is going to tell us how you should trade the stock ahead of its results. Check out shares of five below. It's a big winner on Wall Street today. J.P. Morgan upgrading the discount retailer to overweight from neutral, hiking its price target to $186 per share from 154. And the analysts there citing pricing tailwinds and the company becoming

a one-stop shop for Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime shares of Currig, Dr. Pepper, getting a big pop today after reporting better than expected third quarter revenue, raising full-year sales outlook as thanks to growth in its refreshment and coffee businesses. Those shares finished up 7%. Speaking of earnings, lots of attention on the Mag 7 names, but there are others reporting that should be on your radar. Joining us now for the trade on some of them is Fast Money Trader and founder of Seymour Asset Management, Tim Seymour. Tim, always good to see you. Yeah. First up, Visa results tomorrow right here on overtime.

Stock's up 10% this year. Could shed light on the health of the consumer. What are you doing with it? Well, we've gotten some light on that consumer from the chase data, from some of the issuer data, and the consumer's fine. In fact, in the current environment that we have, Visa's an interesting stock to own. It certainly changed trades relative over the last few years cheap to itself. Definitely cheap on that relative spread to MasterCard. I think a lot of traders look at that or investors look at.

at that. And in a sideways or let's just say that the current macro environment, I think Visa looks excellent into 26. We're going to see U.S. volumes probably 100 basis points better. That's what the street is saying. The 26 guide looks good, high single digits to low double digits on an FX neutral. That's all you probably need to see the stock continue to kind of grind higher. Yeah, and of course they've been doing all this investing as well as MasterCard over the last couple years into the crypto ecosystem and stable coin. So perhaps starting to get there's a play there for Yeah, starting to get a little attention for that. Okay, let's shift gears here because Boeing is also reporting this week.

The reporting earnings on Wednesday morning. Stock has rallied nearly 26% this year. The company just won approval to increase its monthly 737 max production limit. Shares finished up today again as well. Tim, do you buy in here? What do you watch for? I do, Morgan. I'm actually long, and for fast money viewers, this is the B in my acronym, my band acronym.

But for the rest of the people out there, that means it's a name I felt so good coming into this year that I, you know, I believe it should be part of a game we play on fast money. But the most important, the most important point here is that the medium to long term in Boeing is all about free cash flow generation. And by 27, there's probably north of 10 billion in free cash flow. The 77 charges we're going to see, we're going to see a multi-billion dollar charge, which I don't think really even hits 25 numbers. So I think for medium to long-term investors, this is a great call. I think Boeing's back. I think they're playing nice. with the regulator. And this current Trump tour around Asia just means a bigger than a

$500 billion backlog by the time he gets home. So it's not about the order book. It's about execution. Okay. So you like it. B-A-N-D, not B-A-N-N-E-D. Or band aid. No, it's legit banned. Good. Okay. Now, let's get some energy names. TransOcean reporting Thursday, oil giant Chevron. Exxon Mobil reporting Friday morning. Exxon significantly outperforming Chevron here? Can it keep that up? I think so. I think Exxon gets the benefit of the doubt for being probably of the big three at this point, the most diversified between their upstream, their downstream, and their chemicals biz. I think it's probably the lowest break-even in terms of the div at a time when people are a little worried about the oil price here, which I am not, by the way.

I mean, I think we've put in a three-year downtrending lower in oil prices and somewhere around $62, $63. U.S. oil is not competitive. It's not coming into the market. And I think President Trump will look out for that sector over here. But Exxon is going to buy back $5 billion in stock. They're going to continue to make that nice div. I think the valuation is not demanding. I think of the three Chevron might be the best free cash flow story. And I think there's a little noise around closing that has acquisition.

But I think it's also a great place to be. All right. I'm starting to sense a theme here, free cash flow. We like free cash flow, yes. Yeah. So we got, okay, we got stocks at record highs right now. Is the momentum tilted to the upside from here? I think so. I think one of the things we're going to talk about today and you've been talking about and the market's been talking about is this relative outperformance of semiconductors. There seems to be a new headline every day. But I think in the backdrop of the macro that has been good enough, an earnings season that's delivering. We know about the seasonals. We know about some of the dynamics of where the biggest names in the market are going to have to give us something over the next week to 10 days. But I am tilted to the upside. I expect it's going to be an interesting run.

until Thanksgiving. Then I think you start to kind of button up a little bit into the end of the year. Okay. Tim Seymour. Covered a lot there. Thank you. Thanks Morgan. Don't miss Tim and the rest of the traders. That's coming up at the top of the hour, 5 p.m. Eastern. Be sure to scan the QR code on your screen right there, too, to get your tickets to the fast money live event. That is December 11th. You don't want to miss that. They're the best. And up next, are regional banks getting the urge to merge as Huntington buys Cadence Bank for more than $7 billion? And new Oh, new core. Adding 3% and overtime on top of a 4% gain during the regular session.

The steelmaker reporting revenue of $8.5 billion. That was better than expected. Also beating on earnings with 263 per share, much better than expected. Expects fourth quarter earnings to be lower than this quarter, but still gives plenty of room to the street's current forecast at 2.14. We will be right back. Those shares are up 2.5%. Welcome back to overtime.

Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. It'll be a monster day for earnings. Before the bell, we're going to get results from Dow Components United Health, Sherman Williams, as well as UPS, Royal Caribbean, and PayPal. And then, right here during overtime, we're going to break down numbers from Visa, booking holdings, Mondlis, Cheesecake Factory, and Seagate. Now, on the earnings front, we will get the S&P, well, the non-earnings front. We will get the S&P K Schiller Home Price Index.

We will also get the latest reading on consumer confidence, which folks have been watching extra closely right now in this government shutdown, John. All right. Well, today, a big deal in the regional banking industry making headlines. Huntington Bank shares acquiring Cadence for more than $7 billion. Our Leslie Picker has the details and whether more regional bank mergers could be in the works. Leslie. Hey, John, it's likely there are. You can see shares of Huntington and Cadence Bank moved in opposite directions, but as expected today on their all-stock $7.4 billion transaction. And this comes just a week after Huntington acquired another bank, Veritax, for $2 billion.

Bank MNA has seen a sizable resurgence with third quarter levels at a four-year high, and the fourth quarter will already exceed those levels, thanks to multi-billion dollar acquisitions by PNC, Fifth Third, and Huntington. The wave of consolidation has been driven largely by super-regionals looking to broaden their geographical footprint and scale up to compete for deposits. Additionally, experts believe that with this administration, there will be fewer antitrust challenges and faster regulatory reviews. Additionally, the unrealized losses on bank balance sheets have come down a bit, making them more suitable as acquisition targets. And then, of course, scale has become increasingly necessary in the quest for deposits and for absorbing the cost of things like regulation and technology, guys.

Of those factors, though, Leslie, is it really the regulation? issue most of it seems like maybe it would be because there was all this talk about consolidation after silicon valley bank and then we didn't get much of it at least to my eyes seems like we're getting it now yeah there were there was absolutely a lot of talk of consolidation at that point in time but the world was different rates were higher those unrealized losses on the balance sheets were at or near record levels during that period of time again making the acquisition math a little more challenging and it wasn't so much the review at that that point in time, people thought they could possibly get deals passed. But it was the length of

time required to get those deals to close that really shunned a lot of executives from doing that consolidation, because the longer it takes to close your acquisition, the more risk you have for talent flight, for potential contractor flight. And so that kind of made a lot of executives a little more skittish about actually doing that M&A, in addition to kind of a different antitrust environment that we're in right now as well. All right. Lots to watch here. Leslie Picker. Thank you. And, of course, we mentioned it earlier. Peak earnings for both the S&P and the NAZAC this week, five of the seven meg seven reporting. Here's a stat. Almanac trader notes this week

provides a special short-term seasonal opportunity. It's one of the most consistent of the year. Last four trading days of October, first three of November, have had a stellar record over the past 31 years and median gain for the S&P of 1.5%. If you're dipping in and out, sounds like a good time. Also, we mentioned F5 earlier in the session. I want to mention it is off the lows. It's still down about 4.5%. But it was down about 10 on that guidance miss. Just the beginning of quite a week of earnings we've got coming up a lot of big names.

We also have a quartet of central bank decisions, the Fed, which is the big one, but also ECB, BOJ, and Canada this week. Meantime, stocks at record highs to kick off this final trading week of October. That does it for us here at overtime.