Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Markets Eye Upside Risks as Oil Moves, Semis Face the Test and Consumers Stay in Focus 4/7/26

Episode Date: April 7, 2026

Stocks push higher in the final hour with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending the day higher on renewed ceasefire hopes. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Paul Christopher of Wells Fargo break down the outlook and explain why risks for the S&P 500 may still skew to the upside even as recent events create a ceiling. Robert Drbul of BTIG analyzes Levi’s results and what they signal about spending trends and demand. Commodities remain a key driver; Francisco Blanch of Bank of America discusses moves in oil and broader commodity markets and what they mean for inflation and global growth. In tech Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management tackles a key question: can semiconductors remain a safe haven as geopolitical tensions ripple across markets and is there enough spending to support the trade? Plus, Tom Fitzgerald of Cowen looks ahead to Delta earnings. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell is bringing an end to the trading day at the NYSC VOIA Financial ringing the bell, and at the NASDAQ, SS&C Technologies, doing the honors. Welcome to closing bell overtime, live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Mike Santoli. Melissa Lee is off today. While stocks closing well off their worst levels of the session, the Dow is down 450 points at the low of the day, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ turning slightly positive in the final minute of trading. Coming up, we'll get the latest news on negotiations with Iran, which are helping stocks recover, plus the impact on oil and all the big market movers, including Apple.

Our team is all over every side of it. Also on our radar at the close are chip stocks, a good safe haven to hide in while politics caused stock volatility. Dan Niles joins us to talk about that. Earning season is about to get started. We'll hear from Levi's in just a few moments and Delta reports tomorrow morning. We'll get a preview of that one. But let's begin with Megan Kisela with the latest from the White House. Megan.

Mike, some really fast-moving pieces just in the last hour or so on this. Starting with a proposal in the last half hour or so from the Pakistani prime minister, suggesting that everything essentially be put on pause for another two weeks as a diplomatic solution is worked out. There are three parts to this from the Pakistani prime minister. President Trump would extend his deadline from 8 p.m. tonight for another two weeks. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding two weeks, And there would be a ceasefire everywhere for another two weeks. Now, I reached out to the White House about this,

and White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt told me that the president has been made aware of the proposal and that a response will come. Separately, we also heard that a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran is positively reviewing Pakistan's request for a two-week ceasefire. Previously, we had heard that the Iranians were not interested in anything that was amounting to a temporary ceasefire. They were pushing only for a permanent solution, now possibly looking at this view, positively. So Mike, this is the most movement that we've seen in hours on this, as we are just

about four hours now from the president's 8 p.m. deadline. Mike? Yes, I guess, you know, Iran giving that comment. They are positively reviewing this. I guess that's not necessarily an affirmation that they are, their game to reopen the straight for two weeks. And before all this, obviously, there was a lot of kind of brinksmanship. And there were also additional attacks, right? I mean, we did have some action from the U.S. side on Carg Island and elsewhere. That's right. Throughout the day today, overnight last night, the rhetoric was increasing, but so were the actions. A White House official confirmed to me this morning that the U.S. military did target military targets on Carg Island overnight.

It's key, though, that they were military targets, that they weren't broader oil infrastructure targets, no sorts of civilian targets yet. That's what, of course, the president is threatening to do. As of now, as of 8 p.m. tonight, he says he'll do that unless they agree. to this deal. So for now, though, they are still targeting Carg Island, but it wasn't for the first time in this war that they had done that. So it was some increase in actions, but for now, kind of keeping things temperate through the afternoon. And now in these final few hours, I think, Mike, it's very likely we get a lot more from this building and from overseas as both

sides start to digest and really think about this proposal. Yeah, well, we'll listen for it. Thank you, Megan. Let's get to today's market action and Christina Partsinello. Hey, Christina. Well, markets close with a risk off tone as investors really watch those headlines. lines out of the White House, you have a run. And volumes normalizing, though, after yesterday's really sluggish session, it was actually the slowest day of the year thus far. The NASDAQ finish, a slightly higher, despite an almost 3% drag from Apple, a big weight there, 2%, I should say, now.

Broadcom's surge, roughly a little bit over 5% after locking in an expanded deal with Google and Anthropic, roughly 3.5 gigawatts of Google AI chips for Anthropic, starting in 2027. Also, a supply agreement with Google running through 2031, so long-term, there. There. Mizzuho sees Broadcom pulling in roughly $42 billion in AI revenue from Anthropic alone just next year. So that's why shares climb 6%. Intel also climbing over 4% after joining Elon Musk's TerraFab project with Tesla SpaceX and XAI, targeting one terawatt of compute annually for AI and robotics.

Though the full scope of Intel's role is still unclear. There's no press release, so we'll see with that. Axon, another name plunging roughly 10% to a new 52-week low. It's fifth double-digit drop in six months with no clear catalyst. This is a maker of drones as well as body cam equipment. Homebuilders also fell after seaport downgraded the sector on weak job growth and softening demand within the housing sector. And then you also had health insurers that moved in the opposite direction up. United Health, for example, closing 9% higher.

It's best day since August after the Trump administration locked in a roughly almost 2.5% Medicare Advantage payment hike for 2027, Mike. All right, Christine. Thank you. Well, Apple, one of the worst performers in the NASDAQ 100 today. McKenzie Segalo is looking at the latest potential issue for that company, Matt. So, Mike, it was conflicting reports on what could be one of Apple's biggest iPhone launches in years that left the stock in limbo today. First, NK Asia cast out on Apple's ability to debut its highly anticipated foldable iPhone this September, reporting that the company is running into engineering

issues during the test phase, and that suppliers have been told to brace for delays, really throwing into question whether the device can launch this fall alongside the iPhone 18 lineup. But then a few hours later, Bloomberg contradicted that report, saying that the foldable phone is still on track for September release, even if initial supply could be tight because of the complexity of the new display. That helped the stock come off as worst levels. And Mike, the stakes here are high. This is Apple's first foldable phone, one of its biggest device swings in years, and it's expected to retail for more than two thousand. thousand dollars. Crucially, it could also give Apple a fresh premium product at a time when the

company is trying to keep momentum going in China and prove that it can still generate real excitement around new hardware. Mike? Yeah, Mac, it was interesting. Obviously, for much of the day, a lot of stocks were down, but the volume in Apple was actually much heavier than average. And so that does say that there was some reaction to this news or this set of reports that seemed to be weighing on the stock. On the other hand, hard to avoid the fact that Apple up to today had been kind of an outperformer because it does sometimes, you know, behave pretty defensively within the tech sector. That's a great point. It had been the best performer of the Mac 7, although they all were in the red year to date. And part of that is a lot of optimism around

its AI strategy, hopefully coming to bear around its developers conference that's coming up in June. But the iPhone, this foldable iPhone, has been one of these big device swings that people were already baking into potential upside in terms of a new. new lineup. And remember, foldable iPhones are a very popular product in China. And Apple finally saw this major rebound in Greater China in fiscal Q1, 26, revenue surging 38% year over year. So there's this expectation that they could see even more upside from that going into the fall quarter. Yeah, exactly. No, there's no doubt that the foldable phone had become a bullish talking point going into the summer and this idea. Maybe it could kickstart the upgrade cycle and all the rest.

So see how that goes, Mac. Thank you. As stocks rebounding from their lows of the day, oil fell from its highs. Pippa Stevens looking at all that for us. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Mike. Well, the futures market is not telling the whole story because dated Brent hit $144 and 42 cents per barrel today. That is the highest nominal level on record according to S&P global energy. And this is the price based on actual bids, offers, and transactions. And so is more telling than futures prices. Meantime, Saudi Arabia raising its selling price to record. premiums, setting May loadings of its Arab light crude heading to Asia at $19.50 above the benchmark. That's up from $2.50 in April, according to Gulf oils, Tom Cloza. Now, Asian buyers are increasingly looking for Atlantic barrels, which is leading to reshuffled energy flows, with WTI tightening into the global system. Some U.S. Midland cargoes are now going to South Korea via the Panama Canal. That's based on data from Kepler, a route that hasn't been utilized for at least a year.

Product prices remain extremely elevated, but with the jump in spot crude prices, refiner's now have to absorb those higher costs. And so just as the system needs more fuel products, refiners might have to start cutting their runs. Mike? Yeah, it's such a kind of intricate chain reactions all throughout here, Pippa. And obviously, we're just getting these possibilities of a two-week ceasefire. And maybe that would come with Iran allowing traffic through the straight again, in a more complete way over that. period of time. And I wonder if we could just game out what a two-week reopening would be, if it were only two weeks. It seems like it would just sort of clear some product that was already

loaded, but it's not necessarily like it would kickstart production again and get the whole system back in gear. I think that's exactly right. I think a two-week pause could definitely get some of the tankers that have been loaded and sitting in the Persian Gulf cleared out. And that will definitely help ease some of the tightness in the global system. But two weeks is essentially no time in terms of the global shipping industry when you just think about how long it takes for a tanker to route around the world that's going to take far more than two weeks to get those tankers back in position. And if you also look at some of the factors that have hampered flows, and insurance, of course, is one of those. If you have a two-week pause with no real clarity,

what happens after that, you're not going to see insurance providers willing to ensure these tankers. They're definitely going to take a wait-and-see approach and a wait for there to be more clarity. And then finally, I would add that once you start, restart production at some of these fields, it's a gradual ramp up. And so you are not going to restart, you know, think about restarting if it's only for a temporary two-week period, because then it's even more difficult to then wind it back down with the ultimate goal of re-ramping it up once, you know, once flows have normalized. And so when it comes to energy market specifically, two weeks could help clear some of the backlog in the Persian Gulf, but not much beyond that, it would seem. Yeah, it would seem,

Only if those two weeks were used to actually create a more lasting resolution, would it be, you know, really reassuring to all the markets. Pippa. Thank you very much. Levi Strauss earnings just out. Gabrielle Fon Rouge has the numbers. Gabby. Yeah, so Levi Strauss reporting top and bottom line beats for Q1. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 42 cents on sales of $1.74 billion. Sales grew by 14 percent, but only about half of that was from units. The other half was related to price increase. Levi implemented during the quarter. Now, given this strong Q1B, Levi also raised its full year guidance, which was a beat on the top line, but a bit light on the bottom. I spoke with CEO Michelle Goss and CFO Harmeet Singh just before the release, and they said tariffs and higher costs are still weighing on EPS. However, it has not factored in the recent tariff rollback into its outlook, which still assumes a 20% rest of world tariff.

If the new 10% tariff stays in effect, that could benefit earnings. by 35 million or 7 cents per share. The company could also be refunded as much as $80 million. Now, as far as higher gas prices, Goss told me that the company has not seen any pullback on spending. She said they're well balanced across all consumer segments and, quote, feeling really good about the consumer. Mike?

All right. Yeah, market taking it as pretty upbeat. Gabby, thank you. Well, Levi's CEO will break down those results in an exclusive interview tomorrow at 1030am on Squawk on. the street. Well, stocks did move higher into the close on renewed hopes for a ceasefire, the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell, all closing in the green, small gains, but big bounces from the early morning lows. Joining us now is Vital Knowledge founder Adam Krista Fulay and Wells Fargo,

head of global market strategy, Paul Christopher. Guys, welcome, Adam. I think the big question is, I mean, the reactions make sense in response to headlines. I think the big debate is over what's already baked in with markets at the... this price, at this level, up off the lows. We really didn't get even a full flush of a correction before this. So what's your read on the risk-reward balance here? I think if the Pakistani proposal that we saw in the last half an hour, if that were actually adopted by both sides and genuinely implemented, I think you see a pretty powerful rebound rally. I think there's still a lot of anxiety out there in the marketplace about the war continuing

and the fallout from the war. And we're already going to see a pretty substantial fallout. just in the last five weeks evening if things ended today. But, you know, I think that if you were to actually see that adopted a two-week ceasefire, two-week reopening of more moose, and then presumably more negotiations, I think you'd see a pretty powerful rally over the coming days. So we'll have to wait and see it. For sure. That is the rule. All we do here is wait and see and fixate on the same issues. Paul, though, I wonder what your take is in terms of whether another two weeks, if that's what we're going to get, is going to create. read any wear and tear on the underlying economic story, or are we still in that window when,

you know, if we have some kind of resolution, the fundamentals can withstand it? Oh, no, it will absolutely, like, be a friction for the economy. Look for that in that CPI report later this week to maybe post a month-on-month gain of a percent, potentially a little bit more than that. Again, that's going to be a friction for the economy. What we don't want to see is oil up at $175, $200 a barrel for any extended period. That's what we're going to be a friction. when we start to believe that oil could start to undercut the constructive fundamentals that we see for this year. And so what would be your recommendation, Paul, in terms of how an investor behave through all this, is it just kind of close your eyes and sit tight, or are you looking for parts of the market that have gotten dislocated and are worth getting into or out of?

Yeah, we definitely don't think that this is the end, and the two weeks is just another postponement. We feel much better about buying this overall market if we saw stocks below 6,500, the S&P, below 6500 again. That's where we think it would be closer to a bottom than it is right now with sort of hopium still running through the veins of the market. So, yeah, we would not be big buyers. We're not going to back up the truck here. But for a long-term investor, it's really a good opportunity to rebalance a little bit and look for those markets where we think there's not much more upside, trim there and put that money into markets where we don't think there's much more downside. And I can give you in a couple of examples.

We will get those examples in just a moment. But for right now, we want to show you Tarmigan Media, ringing the closing bell at Cebo in Chicago. That ends the regular trading day for options. Paul, we'll get to you in a second. Adam, I guess it's interesting to have this push, Paul, because I think it crystallizes things. Paul suggesting there's still opium in the market. you're thinking that people are still a little bit downbeat and it would be upside surprise to resolution. I wonder if we're just talking about, you know, within a band, right?

We have been in this range from like, we hit a low of 6,300 in the S&P. The all-time highs were in late January were 7,000. What, we're, how far does a relief rally carry us, Adam, if we do get one? I don't think it would be too significant. Remember, we were struggling with 6,900, 7,000 before I ran started. So, you know, that's going to be even strong. stronger resistance, you know, even if there is this two-week ceasefire that gets agreed to. So a couple hundred points on the S&P, you know, it's not massive on a percent basis.

So definitely kind of short-term, just relief rally. And that I think, you know, we're going to have to deal with the fallout. We're going to see this showing up in the economic data for months to come. You know, companies are going to be acknowledging on their upcoming earnings reports. So, you know, there's definitely going to be, you know, at least a pretty substantial impact for a quarter or two, even if everything were to resolve. of us off in the coming weeks. Yeah, I suppose it's a big adjustment relative to what the consensus was expecting in the first

part of this year coming in, right? Atlanta Fed for first quarter GDP is like under one and a half percent. We're probably not getting fed rate cuts, at least unless something changes a lot. So, Paul, you mentioned some areas you think it's worth kind of adding to or subtracting from. What might those be? Yeah, so let's start with one of the bigger ones. We think crude oil is way overshot.

It's up 33% on the year, but information technology down a 7%. That's a net 40% differential. If you look at tech, it's got a valuation right now, a price divided by 12 month ahead earnings that's roughly the same as the composite market. And at the same time, tech's expected earnings running closer to 35% for calendar 26 versus 18% for the overall market. So you've got one market that's oil, it's really overpriced. Another market. that looks really attractive and cheap to us. Earlier this week, we made the move and guidance to say, let's trim long-term investors, let's trim from oil, our energy stocks, excuse me, and put that into information technology.

All right. Yeah, we'll see how that goes. I have to say, I hear you on tech looking inexpensive relative to the market, but we just came out of a couple of years with everybody saying, yeah, tech trades at a big premium, but that's because the market knows the earnings are going to be so great. So we'll see, you know, where the disconnect might be as we get those earnings flowing through. Guys, we'll have to leave it there. Thanks for the time today. Adam Christopher, Paul Christopher, appreciate it.

WTI pulling back from its highs of the day, but still about $112 a barrel, getting closer to the highs it touched after the outbreak of the Iran war. President Trump trying everything to get the Strait of Ormuse to reopen. Our next guest, though, says if his efforts fail on the straight remains closed, the oil market could see severe consequences. You're watching Closing Bell overtime, live in the NASDAQ market. Shares of Casey's general stores falling today, despite the stock being added to the S&P 500. Now, typically, stocks will get a boost on the news because index fund managers will have to buy the stock in order to match the index, although Casey's did have a very good run leading into today year to date. Annal and pharmaceuticals and Marvell technology, they were lower today as those stocks reviewed as potential additions to the S&P but got passed over.

The opening in the index was created when Hologic was acquired by private. equity. And oil now down from its highs earlier today, hitting $117 on WTI, up nearly 70% since the war in Iran started. Prices soaring on President Trump's stated APM deadline for an Iran deal before further attacks might be launched. Of course, we had word of a potential ceasefire since then. So where does oil go from here? Arneseka says U.S. natural gas hasn't kept pace with the global gas rally because of robust domestic supply, a separate issue, an incremental export capacity is also limited. He's lowering his 2026 U.S. price view on a return to surplus. Now, with me now is Francisco Blanche, head of commodities and derivatives at Bank of America. Francisco, it's great to

have you. Just love initially your reaction to, you know, this report. We maybe get a two-week break. Let's see if oil flows out of the straight. Does that adjust your view of what's priced into oil and where it could go? Hey, Mike. Thanks for having me. So it doesn't really change our view that much. We've been saying, and we moved our forecasts on Wednesday last week, we said, if the war lasts for another two to four weeks, we will see an average Brent price of around $92.5.5 a barrel, WTI, maybe $5,7 lower. So that's our baseline. And again, we've averaged slightly under 80 bucks in Brent so far this year. So if, again, two more weeks of extension, and we have a ceasefire.

I still think we're going to have relatively high prices for the rest of the year. We have to reshuffle global flows quite a bit. There's a lot of oil stuck in different parts of the world where it doesn't need to be. And of course, as you know, we still have potentially a lot of physical infrastructure that may have been damaged. And we don't quite fully know the story yet. Plus, there is, of course, Ukraine also taking down some of the Russian energy export capacity in the past week. So those are some of the issues that we have contend with. I think we'll probably be in a 90-year environment for most of the year into, I think, probably

the fourth quarter at this stage. Two more weeks seems to get us pretty close to, you know, the imagined date or the projected date where it really was going to be causing more lasting disruption. I mean, you know, I know that you've cited this where it's going to be rationing throughout parts of the world and things like that. Is there a sense in which waiting another two weeks could be counterproductive? Well, to extend that these two weeks allow for more vessels to get through the straight, and we've seen already maybe a little more flow. We saw this morning Iraq potentially getting a pass on flows. Remember, Iraq has been until now one of the biggest losers with three million barrels a day of exports offline. That's a lot of money for the Iraqi government

and the Iraqi people that needs to be recouped. So that seems to be moving forward. And I think, I mean, I think, look, it's, it's, and anything that gets more vessels moving will help temper the price appreciation. But I don't really want to sugarcoat it too much because today, Brent, dated Brent, traded at record levels. So even if you see the future market down a little bit today, the brand market is down a bit and WTI was kind of up and down. The reality is the physical market is extremely, extremely tight. And again, we've broken records in commodities like jet fuel. which are trading at double the rate of Brent, so $280 a barrel, as well as commodities like bunker fuel, which are used for shipping. So we still have a very tight physical market in the very front.

The backs a little more relaxed, thinking there's going to be a resolution. Right. We did allude to your take on natural gas. And what's the takeaway from, you know, the U.S. essentially having this big, you know, obviously production position and being able to withstand all this? it? Well, the U.S. had one of the warmest March months on record. So that, I think, tempered a lot of the demand domestically and therefore allow the inventories to build, to not draw as much, essentially. Plus, we've seen production scratching 110 BCF a day, which you come to think of it. We were only at 100 BCF a day a couple of years ago. So domestic production is really roaring, higher. That's thanks to shale. We are seeing negative pricing in the Permian Basin, in the Waha Basin,

and that's a reflection of the amount of gas that's coming out of the ground that doesn't have necessarily a venue, a pipeline to get to market. But the gas market is well supplied. And that also means in the U.S., there is no imminent need to essentially curtail demand in any way for gas. So that's, I think, been a positive welcome development for American consumers. Also, it's also prevented power prices from rallying strongly. Like we've seen in other parts of the world where gas is a bigger problem because of the Qatari-LNG outages. So I think that's kind of insulated America a little bit. And there's a lot of LNG coming out, to be fair.

I mean, we're seeing a big ramp up in U.S. liquefaction facilities for export. So that's also, I think, accruing to American companies. Yeah, obviously can't keep up yet, but maybe it'll get there before too long. Francisco, thanks very much. Appreciate it. Thank you so much. Francisco Blanche. Chips gaining today, the SMH ETF was boosted by Broadcom and Intel. So is the AI-driven demand for chips a strong enough story to keep these names insulated enough

from the geopolitics weighing on the broader markets? Dan Niles, joining us after the break. Overtown, we'll be right back. Welcome back. Chip stocks joining the late-day comeback, the SSOx. Gaining nearly 1%. It was led by Broadcom and Intel. Both of them rising on deal news, Broadcom on a pair of announcements involving Google and Anthropic. Intel, meanwhile, revealing in a social post that is joining the chip fab plant jointly run by SpaceX, XAI, and Tesla.

You can see Intel CEO Lip Butan and Elon Musk shaking hands in the photo. Joining us now for more is Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management. Dan, good to see you. Good to see you, too, Mike. So, you know, semis, obviously, it's been kind of the lifeblood of this bull market leadership for three years. It's changed. I guess we've got to be specific in terms of which chip stocks or themes we're talking about. But how are you viewing this latest burst of enthusiasm for custom chips and some of these other kind of subsectors?

Well, I think if you step back and you think about what's gone on with chips, the first really three years since chat GPT showed up at the end of 20. 2022, it's been all about training and then about inference this last year. What you're seeing this year, though, with OpenClaw being the big, you know, event at the end of January, is that you move to this age of agentic AI. And so what you've seen with tokens production is it's gone from growing about 20% over the last couple of months before OpenClaught at the end of January to now it's over 130. And so this lull, I think you've seen in chip stocks, I think you're going to see them get a lot stronger. You're going to have to be selective, but I think you're going to see them get a lot stronger as you go through the rest of this year because of that move to agentic and the massive increase in compute that that takes. In that context, you know, you mentioned we kind of transitioned away from the GPU training focus we were in for so long. Does it make sense to you?

Does the market have it right that Nvidia has been just kind of sideways? for the better part of the year? Yeah, the market did have it right. But what should encourage people if you own Nvidia is the fact that today you had an event that could have easily knocked Nvidia down, which is Brockcom had that big deal between Anthropic, Google, and themselves. The stock was up 6%.

But Nvidia closed the day up. So I think from a short-term perspective, you see these digestion phases. I've talked about Cisco in 1997 and 98, was down 37 to 38% intra-year both of those years, and it finished those years up 31 and up 150%. And I think Nvidia is sort of in the same category where people have rightfully concerns because of what you're seeing in terms of the market getting more selective around the eventual winners.

But this move with agentic requiring a lot more tokens means that I think Nvidia ends the year higher than where it is today, even though I think Open AI you're going. going to figure out has a lot more problems than investors currently think. That's interesting. Now, I was going to just ask about the companies that are kind of creating all this demand for the semis with their CAPEX budgets. Are you among those who feels like we're at a point where the only thing is going to make like a Microsoft work better is if we do start getting CAPX cuts or maybe meta or have they gotten cheap enough on their own? No, well, I think it depends on why you get CAPX cuts. I think we

With meta, if you get a CAPX cut and they say, hey, we're cutting back on all these science projects we have going or, you know, reality labs. I think people will like that because if you look at this most recent quarter that they reported, they were the only ones that had a really strong return on investment, meaning that the cap X went up a lot. But the stock, I think the next day was up 10% or so reaction to earnings because the revenues got revised higher, as did the earnings. So I think with meta, that would be taken positively. If you get a CAP-X cut at one of the big cloud providers, so Amazon Web Services, Google, or Azure, I think that's a different problem because investors are giving these companies the multiples they have because they're viewing all of them as winners. And I don't think that's what I'm saying.

You're going to have to get more selective. And you're seeing it with Anthropic coming out and saying, hey, we're raising prices. and at the same time, Open AI is coming out and saying, well, we're having to cut prices because now, to me at least, it looks like Anthropics got faster or higher run rate revenues at around $30 billion versus Open AI's last estimate of around 24. And obviously, Open AI started this back into the end of 2022 with Chad GPT. Yeah, it's fascinating, actually. I mean, in terms of the race for these companies likely to becoming public, and everyone's much more excited on stocks that have leverage to Anthropic, if they own a piece of it or whatever it is, or a fund owns a piece of it, than to open AI. I mean, is there room for both of them? I don't think so, and I've been saying this for over a year, that up until October, everybody was assumed they could win.

That's just not the way it works in tech. If you think about how many winners do you have any e-commerce, well, it's really Amazon. What about search? Well, that's really Google. What about streaming? Well, that's really Netflix. What about social? Well, that's really meta.

So does it make sense for you to think that there can be like 10 winners? No. And, you know, Anthropic and Open AI are in a big battle against each other. I've said for a long time, I think Anthropics the ultimate winner because they're focused on the enterprise where people are used to paying for stuff. You look at Open AI, they were focused on the consumer where. You're used to getting results for free when you type things into search or you use social media or whatever. So it's a very different market that they both attacked. And you've seen open air having to step back from some of what they call side projects as they're trying to battle anthropic.

And the biggest issue, honestly, for both of them, is Google, which has tremendous amounts of cash flow, has the complete vertical stack. That's the one that I think is the biggest winner in all of this. But I think Anthropic and Enterprise is my favorite of the private companies. And I think Open AI we're going to figure out by the end of the year is the one that gets squeezed in between those two. And I think the chip stocks, you have to be selective around this because of that. I think Intel, and I've said this for the last few weeks, I think in the move to agentic AI, processor vendors, they become a lot more important. because you need to orchestrate what these agents are doing, right? Go fetch this from CNBC, see what Mike Santoli is saying, go to the SEC website, pull this data, create an Excel spreadsheet.

Processors become a lot more important. And I think that's regardless of who ends up winning. Yeah, it's fascinating. I mean, some of the old stuff becomes necessary again, memory and processing. Dan, hey, great to catch up with you. Appreciate it. Thanks, Mike. Dan Niles.

Time for a CBC News Update with Mackenzie Seagalos. Hey, Mac. Hey, Mike. In some of his most pointed comments yet, Pope Leo today said President Trump's threat to destroy the Iranian civilization was, quote, truly unacceptable. The pontiffs said any attacks on civilian infrastructure would violate international law. Pope Leo also urged Americans to contact their elected representatives and demand they reject the war and work for peace.

Ice agents in Central California were involved in a shooting today that sent one person to the hospital. According to Homeland Security, agents fired defensive shots when the person they stopped tried to run over an agent. DHS says the suspect is an alleged gang member wanted for questioning in connection to a murder in El Salvador. And the crew of the Artemis II captured what NASA's administrator called an absolutely stunning photo of the moon eclipsing the sun. The astronaut took this picture from their Orion space capsule, which made a six-hour fly-by of the moon yesterday. NASA chiefs. Jared Isaacman told CNBC this morning that this is one of the reasons we send astronauts farther into space than ever before.

Mike, sending it back to you? Yeah, it's all about Instagram, I guess. There you go. Mack, thanks very much. Up next, we turn our attention to earnings. Levi's out earlier this hour. The stock gaining following those results. We'll talk Levi's and the broader consumer.

And we'll get you ready for tomorrow's big report. Delta Airlines is going to have its numbers in the morning. what that company will say about travel demand and oil prices. Stay with us. Welcome back to closing bell overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. A big rebound for stocks today at renewed hopes for a ceasefire deal with Iran. The Dow bounced more than 350 points from its morning low, did still close in the red. The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000, however, all managed to close with small gains. Consumer Staples, the worst performing sector today, Campbell's Soup and Kimberly Clark down more than 4% each. Walmart down more than 3%. That was the worst

performer in the Dow. Let's got a check on the bond market. For that, we have Rick Santelli at the CME in Chicago. Hi, Rick. Hi, Mike. And you know, Mike, when we look at all the energy prices, all the movement, what's been going on with crude oil, Brent oil, I'm somewhat amazed if you look at a month to date of two-year and 10-year yields, how sideways it has been. And even today, You notice the right-hand side of that chart. Today's action, well, rates move down. That's because oil moved down. You said it.

Maybe there's a ceasefire. We don't know yet. But I will tell you this. We're sitting at $3.80 in a two-year, having closed under that key level in three weeks. We're sitting at $4.30 in a 10 year, having closed under that important level in three weeks. Then there's a dollar index month to date.

You want to pay close attention to that 99-even area. It slid down as well. We had a three-year auction. today, it was a stellar auction. I gave it an A-minus. Tomorrow we're going to have $39 billion 10s, 1 o'clock Eastern. You want to pay attention. Supply is key, especially in market volatility times like these. Mike, back to you. Yeah, for sure, Rick Flaid, yesterday. It was an interesting one today in threes. Levi Strauss shares popping after reporting better than expected earnings up next. What those results can say about the state of the consumer and the economy right now.

Levi Straussers are moving higher in after I was trading after beating on the top and bottom line just moments ago, leading the company to raise its guidance. Let's bring in BTIG consumer retail analyst Robert Durbel. He has a buy rating on the stock. Good to see you. What's the, I guess, the top line takeaway here, they have a fair bit of confidence about the immediate growth outlook. Yeah, I mean, I think first of all it was a great quarter, you know, beat on every metric. Top line was good. Margins were better.

EPS was better. to raise guidance this early in the year, you know, projects a lot of strength, you know, considering the environment that we're operating in. And I think it's just that this is a company that has the brand remains very, very strong, multiple drivers of growth, you know, domestic growth, international growth, you know, gender growth, category growth. You know, there's a big push for more of a denim lifestyle than just pure denim. So it's pretty encouraging, you know, and we like the stock. I was going to say, you know, how much can we extrapolate from, from what Levi's saying and what's driving their business to overall consumer fortunes,

mostly because of that fashion tail when they seem to have and the way that they're executing on. I think what's interesting about it as we see it is this is a broad-reaching company. So you think about U.S., you think about international, think about Europe, you think about Asia. It's all pretty solid. So, like, I think the world is watching, you know, the geopolitical headlines. but I think the companies that have great products, innovation, newness, and value, it's working. And I think these guys are off to a really good start. It seems like, you know, they're able to kind of absorb tariffs at this point, you know, through various measures.

It seems like that was already in the numbers. Your target for the stock, I guess, is 27 and kind of gets you to 18 and a half times forward earnings. I was looking back, it hasn't really traded that high on a P.E. since in like five years. So what do you think motivates the street to start to give it that premium? I think part of it is if you look at the goals that they've set out, you know, they're $6 billion in revenues. They're looking to go to $10 billion. You know, operating margins, they increased to 12% this year looking to go to 15%.

I think if you look over the next few years, they're hitting on all the cylinders. So I would, I think that there's a better opportunity for them to execute, grow the earnings, and sort of grow the multiple with a lot of different factors. Are there other companies that are playing in the same area that you think will also be able to get a boost here in the denim area or whatever feels like the sweet spot right now? I think, I mean, denim, what these guys are doing is denim and then denim lifestyle. Right. So their tam has gone from $100 billion to $1.5 trillion, like in terms of the different categories. So when you think about, you know, gender, you think about categories, you think about international, you know, there to really...

What does that actually mean, denim lifestyle? just sort of adjacent products that seem to fit with the Levi's jeans brand? A lot of denim in the products. Oh, I see. Got. Denim sport coats in the women's side, denim skirts, you know, denim tops, just anything that really fits the brand in terms of denim extensions. And this is really an opportunity that they haven't truly pursued, you know, in years past. So with Michelle Goss taking over, you know, this has been a big driver of hers.

And they're doing a great job with it. And I think that the multiple can expand, the earnings can expand if they execute, you know, based on what we think they can do. Gotcha. Up 5%? Got a start on it. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Good to see a rep. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Airline stocks getting grounded this year, significantly underperforming the broader market. Up next, the top analyst on what he's expecting from Delta's earnings tomorrow and whether this pullback has been a buying opportunity for the stocks. Coosneville overtime, live from the NASDAQ market side. It'll be right back. Delta kicking off airline earnings tomorrow morning as concerns grow over the fallout from the Iran War. The surging price of jet fuel has weighed on these stocks. The sector has fallen 18% since the start of the war. Joining us now is Tom Fitzgerald from TD Cowen.

To give us a preview, so Tom, Delta always viewed as a little more defensive, kind of higher quality in the group. What are you expecting from the company tomorrow? The big focus is going to be on Rasm and how much to demand a less, they're seeing, if any. To the extent, you know, we're looking for a revenue outlook in the second quarter of anywhere up 11 to 13 percent with, you know, 79 percent EBIT margin. They can talk about better numbers than that and a path to full fuel recapture by the second half of the year. It could be an all-clear sign. Conversely, investors could grow more skittish if they see, if they note any pushback among consumers on willingness to pay higher fares. I was good to say, you know, we did hear

Delta putting on like a $10 check bag fee trying to recoup maybe some of the fuel expense. Is it your sense that at least the Delta customer is somewhat insensitive to these fee hikes? I think they're probably better able to withstand the kind of volatility, whether it's in day-to-day expenses like gasoline or stock market volatility. They tend to skew much higher income. And Delta as a whole just has the most diverse revenue mix. of the peer group. They're the least relying on main cabin ticket revenues. And what about more real-time gauges of bookings, of things like, you know, the disruptions to some

of the travel routes, of course, around the Middle East? You're expecting any sensitivity to that in Delta's results? They might actually be an interesting winner on that angle. United CEO commented on a lot of connecting flows from Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, routing via Europe, or to Europe via the Americas versus via the Middle East. So Delta is also likely to be a beneficiary of some of that connecting traffic. That's a transitory benefit, but they'll definitely welcome it. And it's another advantage versus peers. And I think you were looking for Delta, if they assume, assuming they give annual guidance to give something like $1.20 to $1.60 for earnings. That's for the second quarter. That's for, I'm sorry, for the quarter. The consensus for the

quarter is like $156. So does that implicitly mean that they're creating? room on the downside versus consensus? Yeah, I think consensus, depending on which source you use, it might have come down a little bit closer to our number of around 144. So we think investors are, you know, anywhere in that kind of 140, 150 range is kind of where the bogey is looking like for tomorrow. And what's your general posture toward the group? Obviously, some of these stocks have gotten hitting a lot hard, harder than Delta. Presumably, if you get some kind of genuine resolution in the Middle East, they'll rip at least as an initial reaction. It's a great question, Mike. We noted in our preview, I think some of the more levered or fuel-sensitive names, like an American JetBlue Alaska, they might lead an initial relief rally coming out on the other side of this.

Longer term, we'd want to accumulate in United and even Delta, those are our top two ideas in that order. And we think potentially if the fuel spike leads to more unprofitable capacity in the domestic market, getting pulled out of the system, more ultra-low cost retrenchment, that could make for a healthier, more investable, higher, multiple type of industry longer. term. All right. Hey, Tom, really appreciate you setting that up for us. Tom Fitzgerald. Anytime like that's right. From TD Kamen. Cowan, excuse me, don't miss an exclusive interview with Delta CEO Ed Bastion. That is tomorrow at 7 a.m. on Squawk Box. That's going to do it for overtime today. Fast money begins right after this quick break with Brian Sullivan.