Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Markets, Meta Cuts, and the Retail Read 12/4/25

Episode Date: December 4, 2025

Investors weigh bonds, jobless claims, and rising economic concerns with Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives and Charles Bobrinskoy, Vice Chairman at Ariel Investments. Earnings from Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Rubrik, Ulta Beauty, and SentinelOne help shape the afternoon narrative. Mike Proulx of Forrester and Lloyd Walmsley of Mizuho analyze Meta’s reported pullback in metaverse spending and its implications for the tech landscape. We also hear from Rubrik CEO Bipul Sinha on results, dig into retail earnings with Courtney Reagan, and assess the 2026 IPO outlook with Brianne Lynch, Head of Market Insights at EquityZen, before wrapping with a look at tomorrow’s key market drivers. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Now that marks the end of regulation. Hank Azari, a part of the group bringing in the closing bells in New York Stock Exchange, as part of the annual tree lighting. FM Investments doing the honors at the NASDAQ, and it was a quiet day for the major outages. The Dow losing 50 points, S&P 500 flat, a little higher. The NASDAQ slightly higher as well, about a quarter, maybe it popped a little at the end. The Russell 2,000 outperforming looks to be up about three quarters of a percentage. have industrials and energy, the two best sectors today.

Power producers like GEBernova and Quanta had big gains. Concerns about the consumer hitting some staples. Kroger and Costco falling, discretionary stocks, too, win resorts and Marriott. But the big stock story today is meta. Up about 3.5% on a report. It's considering cuts at its Metaverse unit. Much more on that coming up. That's a scorecard on Wall Street, but winters stay late.

Welcome to closing about overtime. I'm John Ford. Morgan Brennan is on assignment. Coming up, we're watching for several earnings reports coming out in the next few minutes, including Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, Alta Beauty, Sentinel One, and Rubrik. And after those rubric numbers cross, you'll hear from the company CEO, Biffelcina, before the analyst call. Plus, 2025 was an active year for IPO, if you're going to look at what to expect in 2026. And even though the Wall Street scorecard looks quiet, and a soccer fan will tell you,

there might still be lots of action. Christina Parts-Nevelis is at the NASDAQ for a look at the penalty. he kicks. Christina, you're a soccer fan? If I knew I would be ready with some puns, darn it. I know you're the pun can, but let's talk about stocks right now because you said they finished lower with investors really eyeing, or

mixed, I should say, Friday's PCE report, the feds a preferred inflation gauge, and next week's rate decision. Small caps outperformed again. Five of the 11 S&P sectors finished in the green with industrials, like you said, John, and energy really leading the pack. On the individual moves, Dollar General

was the best performer in the S&P 500, up roughly 14% after raising full-year guidance. We've got to talk about Auklo. That name surged into the close, about 15% higher after the Department of Energy announced plans to purchase up to 10 nuclear reactors. We also saw Bloom Energy closed up 15% higher as well. Intel was the worst performer in both the S&P and the NASDAQ 100.

Down about 7.5% UBS conference comments highlighted ongoing challenges, including gross margins, volatility, and flat-to-down CapEx outlook for 2026. so far without foundry wins. Invidia, look at that name. That finished about 2% higher after lawmakers opted not to include the Gain AI Act in this week's defense bill. That would have forced Nvidia and AMD to reserve their most advanced chips for American buyers before supplying China. Not the case right now.

That could change. And then last but not least, Salesforce closing 3.5% higher after reporting annual reoccurring revenue from agentic products. That actually hit $540 million up from $100 million just last quarter. Some type of soccer pun. Insert it now, John. That one started off flat, but then sort of bent higher after it was higher in overtime yesterday. You were prepped for this. You were ready.

Eyes caught off guard. No, just, yeah. Just trying to think on the fly, Christina, see you in a bit. What a curveball. There you go. Now to the bond market, we saw yields move higher following today's jobless claims data. Rick Santelli is in Chicago, Rick. Yeah, John, I'll tell you what, that jobless claims data,

everybody's been talking about it all session, and the conversations are like this. Well, we had Thanksgiving. Did the seasonal adjustment process fail us? Well, I can't answer that, but what I can tell you is $191,000 is the lowest going back to SEP of 2022. But consider this statistic. It's the second lowest initial claims number

in 56 years, going back to 1969. Now, let's look at twos and tens on a 24-hour chart. And kind of in the middle there, you see the spike at 8.30 Eastern a little bit to the right of center. That was the 830 claims. We were moving a bit higher going into it and definitely kept rates on the high side. But last Friday, if you look at the closes,

we had 401 close in a 10. We had a 349 close and a 2. So when you look at the one-week charts, you could clearly see all the steepening that's been going on, led by long-dated treasury yields being more on the firm side. They're up nine on the week. Two years are up three on the week. And we want to continue to pay attention to that. One of the driving forces and moving that spread over the last six or seven sessions has been next Wednesday's notion that we're going to see a 25 base point cut pretty much fully priced in the Fed Fund futures market. John, back to you.

All right. The tens and two is taking notes. Rick Santelli, thank you. Although the overall market is flat today, some momentum names staging a strong comeback, such as quantum computing stocks and the buzz ETF. So are investors once again willing to take on riskier parts of markets? Joining me now is Paulson Perspectives, author Jim Paulson and Ariel Investments, Vice Chairman Charlie Abrinskoy. Guys, welcome. Jim, you're concerned about economic growth here? What's the impact potentially in the markets? Yeah, I think that I think the economy is fairly weak,

aggerly across the array of different data. Real GDP year on years, 2%. John, and you've got employment at 8 tenths of percent. Retail sales only up 1.3. Industrial productions up 0.9. Those

are really unacceptably weak levels. And I think what bothers me is I think it's continuing to get weaker and will, I think, into the new year. The good side of all of this is I think that we're not just going to have one 25 basis point cut by the Fed, but I think the economy is going to slow sufficiently that the full focus of policy officials is going to be trying

to avoid recession and restart or maintain this recovery. And I think they're going to bring a lot more policy juice. And I think it's going to continue maybe through the mid-year. And this will be the first time we've had a major full-on policy support in this entire bull market. And I think we're like the results as investors. Oh, okay. Charlie, do you agree? And what's going to be the impact of you expect governments around the world to issue debt in the coming year? And longer than that, John, I think we're going to have deficits around the world as countries, very much including the U.S., struggle with deficits, struggle with aging populations, demands for more government services. And I think we're going to see deficits, and I think those are going to lead to

inflation. Ultimately, governments print money to finance the bonds that they have to issue, and we're going to be seeing that. And so I also call the economy not quite as pessimistic as Jim. I think one, two percent kind of growth is a little less than perfect, but it's not anemic. And so I think we're going to see the Fed worry about inflation, and that's going to mean that they don't cut too much. Okay, guys, hold tight. We're going to get to Christina Parks and that was with HPE earnings out, stocks down a couple percent. Christina? Yeah, I start with the previous quarter, beat on earnings, but a miss on revenue. So HPE posted adjusted EPS of 62 cents, beating estimates of 58 cents, but revenue came in

at $9.68 billion below the $9.94, expected. The revenue miss was partially driven by servers and hybrid cloud, but gross margins, this was a key metric, beat at 36 percent versus the 33 expected, a major concern given rising memory cost. I was able to speak with CEO Antonio Neri just within the last 30 minutes or so, and he emphasized they're now more of a networking-centric company after the Juniper acquisition, and that first full quarter of Juniper really helped drive margins. He also said memory costs aren't as much of a factor anymore. On AI, Neri also said they booked an additional $2 billion in orders this quarter with a backlog now at a record $4.7 billion. 60% of that coming from sovereign as well as enterprise customers, that's their focus. They've also noted they've already enacted price increases just in November to offset the memory pricing concerns.

So that would help their guide for the current quarter. Revenue guidance came in below expectations. Could be why you're seeing the 3% sell-off. But EPS guidance was raised. The company also reaffirmed its full year outlook, John. All right. I know you continue to watch that into the call. Now we've got Ulta Beauty earnings out as well.

That one's moving the other way up 4%. Courtney Reagan has the numbers. Yeah, John. And these numbers look really strong across the call. board. Let's go through it for you. So earnings per share coming in at $5.14. The street was expecting $4.64. Revenues also better than expectations at $2.86 billion compared to $2.72 billion consensus. Third quarter comparable sales. Again, key number in retail, right? This is up 6.3%. That's almost double with the street had expected that to be up 3.5%. Gross

margins, 40.4%. Also better than expected. Operating margins. Also better than expected at 10. 0.8%. With one quarter left to go for the fiscal full year, the company is increasing its prior guidance for revenue and earnings per share ranges. And last quarter, you may remember that they did also increase their guidance. We care an awful lot about any commentary that the company can offer us on this very important cyber week that just passed, which marks really Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday and all other, at least broad retail science point to a consumer that does not appear to be too constrained in their spending early on this holiday. Shares Volta up about 4%. John? That's a good thing. A lot of people hoping that last court. Thank you. Let's see. We're going

back to the panel now. Jim, tell me here, we're talking about the economy earlier. They've been some questions about the consumer, but in these early days of the holiday season, post Thanksgiving, the signs look pretty good. If you're concerned about the economy, but you think the Fed is going to be helpful, how long is that help going to be good for stocks if the underlying economy doesn't follow suit? Well, I think that's always the risk, John, that recession could result. And if that happens, then we've probably got a 20% bare market. I think, though, we're bigger buffer than we usually have against recession.

We have balance sheet debt-to-income ratios or debt-to-profit ratios that have been falling really since the 2008 crisis. For example, we've got liquidity that's ample everywhere in the consumer sector and the business sector. And really, I think most importantly, we've got a different mindset, a more conservative mindset among both consumers and businesses that, you know, they're taking on less debt in this recovery than they used to. I think it's more of a disinflationary sort of lends itself to less growth, but it also means that people are prepared for a recession. They're pessimistic. They've been expecting in a while, and it's really hard to get one when everyone's ready for one. So I think the odds favor that we do struggle on with sluggish growth, but it's going to be enough, in my view, I guess I disagree with Charlie a little bit. I think inflation story is going to unravel. If you look at the relative price performance of inflation sensitive equities, they've been plummeting on a relative basis of late.

And I think that's a really close relationship with commodity prices. And I wouldn't be surprised if they start coming down as well, bringing on a bigger full support by the, the Fed. I think it's a bullish sign for stocks. If the Fed finally engages here. Charlie, I know you're a value, guys, so you like Barrett Gold. You also like high-quality real estate. Why? Because of the inflationary pressures. I'm a big fan of Jim's. I read his stuff. I just disagree with him on this. He's right that corporations and people have a little bit less debt. Guess who has a lot more debt, governments. And they're the ones who issue currency, and they're the one that print dollar bills. And they are in debt that they've never been before. And it's just not true that inflation-sensitive stocks haven't performed well.

Gold stocks have doubled. Barrett Gold is up more than 100%. The sphere and MSGE, classic real estate names that do well in inflationary times. Very strong. So there's lots of indications that the market is nervous about inflation, but I don't think nervous enough. I think that's the pressure that we're going to see over the next 12 months. All right, both sides. Investors take notes. Charlie, Jim, thank you both. Thanks. Coming up, shares of Meta, jumping today on reports that Mark Zuckerberg might make some big cuts in the Metaverse unit. Is he starting to pull the plug on that unit that he named the company after? And we just got those results from Rubrik.

The stock is up more than 8%. The company reporting EPS at 10 cents versus expectations of a loss of 17 cents. Might have been a 10-cent loss versus 17-cent loss expected revenue. Also coming in above estimates at 350 million subscription revenue with a big beat, 336 million versus estimates of 308, fourth quarter outlook coming in better than expected, and the company raising its full year 2026 guidance. You can see the stock there now up 10.5%. Don't want to miss the CEO.

Overtime's back in two. Welcome back to Overtime. Shares of Netflix continuing to fall. Stock hitting a low of 100. won and changed today, closed at 103-22, lowest levels since April. Our David Faber reporting Netflix is in the lead in the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery assets, but also today, Paramount criticizing the process, claiming it was tilted to favor Netflix, and just in the last hour, CNBC confirming that another round of bids for

WBD due today, maybe the drama you'd expect from a big Hollywood deal. Now, the big tech story of the day is meta, the stocks hire on a report that said the company is considering cutting the Metaverse Group's budget by as much as 30%. The stock has been under pressure lately on concerns about its massive spending, and its latest earnings, META raised the low end of total expenses for the year to $116 billion. Joining me now is Mike Prue, research director at Forrester, and Lloyd Walmsley, senior research analyst for Missouho. So, Lloyd, just to clarify here, this isn't a considered cut of 30% to everything AR, VR-V-R-related that Facebook meta is doing.

It sounds like it's more targeted toward the reality labs, kind of VR piece of it, maybe closer to 10% taken overall at meta. Is that far beyond what the company has been doing lately? Yeah, so I think you're right. I think it's likely to be a sub-segment of the reality labs business, not the entire reality labs business. Of course, this is a press report, so it's not directly from the company. And we don't know exactly how much of this was already contemplated in the guide they already gave versus what may be coming out of the budgeting process that's incremental. In our minds, we think it's probably marginally incremental, but ultimately we don't think it matters so much as

it shows that they are approaching reality labs with more discipline than they have in the past. You know, the big, the big sort of question coming out of last quarter was, you know, what are the guardrails on OPEX growth over the next few years as they start to invest in a new long-term project that may have a very uncertain return? And what was particularly frustrating to investors was that they still hadn't effectively closed the loop on what has been perceived to be. the first black hole, which is reality labs. And so they didn't necessarily demonstrate a return yet, and they continue to invest at really heavy levels. And so I think starting to see them

show that they're making hard capital allocation decisions or contemplating them with regard to reality labs, we think should give investors confidence that as they start to embark on a new investment area with generative AI, that there is a better sense of discipline. Mike, is this discipline you think we're seeing here or and or? Is it just Mark Zuckerberg deciding, while I'm still going to spend just as much or more, I'm just going to shift spending away from this metaverse thing and toward this AI thing? 100%. Look, meta's North Star now is AI unequivocally. And there's no surprise about meta pulling back on its metaverse bet. It simply hasn't worked. It's been a

a leaky bucket from the time that Facebook changed its name to Meta. The company has been seeing loss after loss in reality labs, pouring money into building something that consumers just don't want. So it makes perfect sense for Meta as a company to regain its focus, focus on its core family of apps, which has always been the company's bread and butter, and take the extra resources and pour them into its AI future. Lloyd, at the same time, I could argue, and so, heck, I will, that Mark Zuckerberg was actually visionary in the sense that he was leaning into the idea that you spend big during times of massive change. Maybe he just guessed wrong about which change was coming first when he started spending on the Metaverse instead of AI.

But it pivoted quickly, spending on AI, now the rest are too. And if you had bet against meta, as a lot of people did back in 2022, you're kicking yourself, right? Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, they've done a remarkable job in the core business, right? They have actually deployed more traditional machine learning and to some extent more generative AI, but mostly just core machine learning and GPUs into the core business. And they've done an unbelievable job re-accelerating their top line growth and all while being quite disciplined in the core business.

And so while they've been investing in Metaverse and increasingly in AI, they've still shown very healthy operating income growth. And I think the big concern with investors coming out of last quarter was it seemed that they were putting that clearly on the back burner to focus on AI investment and positioning themselves to be a leader in generative AI. And I think that's still largely the plan. I don't think things are really changing. But what's new here in our minds is that they are making some hard decisions on Metaverse, which we think they should have been making a long time ago. So, yeah, over $80 billion of cumulative operating income losses since 2019, it's been a pretty tough bet for them so far. You know, there may be some big unlocks in AR coming up, but the VR side has been a pretty big disappointment so far.

Mike, it turns out that the future wasn't real people pretending to be fake agents in a fake world in the metaverse. You know, it was fake people, the agents pretending to be real in the real world with AI. What's the potential payoff for Meta here if they do make these advances in AI? Is it the messenger bots being those e-commerce intermediaries that close sales and make the advertising on the platform more valuable? Let's remember that the Metaverse was born out of pandemic isolation, and the world has changed since then. And like, people want human connectivity. And Martin Zuckerberg has been clear that his AI vision for the company is all around personal superintelligence.

And what is the key to that? It is meta AI glasses. And so meta will 100% still be in the device game. And they're showing strong results around what they're doing with their partnerships with Rayban and Oakley. But it is going to be this idea of personal productivity delivered by these AI glasses, interfacing with the core of meta-AI that's going to deliver value to everyday consumers. Hard to break through with technology on your face, though.

Earbuds are the only thing so far. We'll see if they can figure it out. Mike, Lloyd, thank you. Thanks for having me. Well, coming up, it is getting more expensive to heat your home, but cheaper to fill your car. We're going to look at how consumers are feeling those energy price changes. Speaking of, consumers, the retail reporting season wrapping up with big games, for dollar stores today, is that telling us the consumer is getting more cautious after

all? We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Natural gas back in the spotlight today, futures spiking above $5 this afternoon. That's the highest level in three years. And you can see that momentum in the equities with SM energy, northern oil and gas, Matador resources, Diamond Bank, and Canoco Phillips, all with big gains so far this week. And sticking with energy, gas prices are back below three bucks a gallon nationwide, despite energy costs firming up. Now, despite those low prices, consumer confidence isn't getting a boost from it.

Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins now with that, Mike. Yeah, John, that move higher in natural gas, certainly maybe getting an extra boost from very cold weather, is consistent with another pattern, which is almost all commodities outside of crude oil. have been firming up or at least holding their value. This is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. It is close to half its weighting is in crude oil, Brent and WTI crude. And what you see here is WTI has started to sag lower and it's not dragging the rest of the commodities down.

So things like copper have been moving higher, a lot of globally traded commodities that China might be stockpiling because we're sort of kind of separating our economies to some degree are benefiting from this. However, the declining crude over this longer period of time has weighed on gasoline prices, as you said, making it much more affordable. Now, this has been the case for most of the last few years, although not in 2022. This is essentially the cost of a gallon of gas measured in how long you have to work if you're making the average wage, right? So it's a cost of a gallon divided by the average hourly earnings for non-supervisory and production workers.

Right now, we're at about a tenth of an hour, a little bit less than that, actually. So six minutes. That's how much you have to work. You go back all the way to the early 90s. You see it has rarely been much lower than that, certainly outside of a recession. But because it's been relatively affordable for a very long period of time, at least most of it, I don't think it has as much traction in terms of driving the consumer mood as it might have when, you know, we were worried about how stressful it was to try and, you know, fill the tank, John. Because the rent is too darn high for a lot of people. Everything else. That's a big piece of it. 100%. So so many other things gain focus in terms of the affordability question. Yes, anything housing related, whether it's health insurance, other things. And just the higher level of food prices, even though they've stopped going up, all that stuff, I think, contributes to it. So not to say people don't welcome being able to afford more gas, but it maybe just is not the defining variable the way it used to be to the consumer attitudes. Yeah, shares of NVIDIA to buy a gallon of gas. That would be a whole different chart as well. Depends on where you are in the income spectrum.

Mike Santoli, thank you. Time now for a CNBC News update with Bertha Coombs. Bertha. John Defense Secretary Pete Hegzeth reportedly asked the four-star head of his U.S. military operations in the Caribbean to retire less than one year into his tenure. The Wall Street Journal reporting today that Hegseth asked Admiral Alvin Holsey to step down following months of disagreements, including Holsey's concerns over strikes on alleged drugboats in the Caribbean. Holsey said back in October that he would retire. It will take effect December 12th.

An appeals court is allowing the deployment of the National Guard in the nation's capital to continue. The order today pauses a lower court ruling that would have sent troops in D.C. home by December 11th. It's not a final judgment. And the Trump administration reportedly instructed U.S. embassies and consulates to prioritize visa applications for travelers who want to attend the 2026 World Cup, 2028 Olympics, and other major sporting events. According to the Associated Press, the new rules would also prioritize foreigners who are traveling to invest in the U.S. John? Bertha, thank you. Well, coming up, we're going to get you cut up on all the stocks making big moves.

in overtime, including Rubrit. CEO Biffelcina is going to talk about that company's big beat this quarter. 10 cents non-gap EPS, way ahead of a 17-cent loss expected. Revenues beat, guide raised as well. You're going to hear from him on overtime before the call with analysts. The stock right now up more than 12.5%. Overtime will be right back. Welcome back to overtime.

recap the action today. The major averages with small moves, but on overtime, we like the big movers too. We got that from momentum names. Power player, Alclow, up 15%. So was quantum name Raghetti computing. And remember the excitement over rare earths. USA rare earth gaining 24%, all three of those back to around November 12th levels. Now to the big movers here in overtime. Ulta Beauty, a winner, up 4.5% after beating on earnings and revenue. Same store sales also topping estimates. Alta raising guidance for earnings, revenue, and sales. Sentinel 1, though, moving lower by about 8%. Seven cents a share there versus estimates of $0.259 million.

That's $1 million more than analyst consensus, while its Q4 revenue guidance, a couple million short. And So-Fi Technologies is falling down about 4.5% after announcing an offering of $1.5 billion of common stop. So-Fi says it will use the money for general. corporate purposes. Now Rubrik, still higher, now almost 14%. Highs of the session after reporting an unexpected profit, revenue beat, and hiking its 2026 guidance. Joining me now on a first on CNBC interview, Bipple, Sinha, the CEO, and co-founder of Rubrik, Bipple, good to see you. So this is a big

quarter for you. This profit in particular, notable, what within the business drove the outperformance. Thanks, John. We had a record quarter. In fact, this was our best quarter ever. We are delivering cyber resilience to the governments and businesses around the world. And cyber resilience is the number one cybersecurity topic because everybody is worried about can they keep their businesses up and running even when the cyber attack happens. And on top of it, we are also helping our customers prepare for the AI future, enabling them on the agentic operations. So essentially, our message around AI acceleration

and cyber resilience is resonating. So you've got this business of kind of helping customers scan out, find out the equivalent of digital fake IDs, identity resilience. Why is that important, particularly with the ransomware attacks out there and how are you seeing that business scale so far?

rubric has three core business first is our data protection business that is at a scale and growing rapidly next is our identity resilience business which is a new business we actually launched this business in December last year and it just passed three quarters selling we have we are about 20 million in subscription error in fact in the past quarter itself we've more than doubled the number of customers and 40% of those customers on identity are net new to Rubik. The thing is, attackers are not hacking in. They are logging in because identity has become the number one threat vector. And we are helping businesses and governments be confident around keeping their identity system up and running so that they can log in and operate their business. Now, that's a

very stylish coat, Bipple, and I got to mention, you guys are going for a big culture play here. I know this commercial featuring ludicrous that you guys have rewind it back, which I guess is it fits in nicely with your whole theme here around resilience and being able to recover data-wise what you have before. What is the target that? What are you trying to accomplish and how much extra market opportunity is there to capture by getting attention to the brand? If you look at like a rubric, we are the security and AI operations company. As businesses are taking on agents, their biggest worry is they don't know what the hell is going on. What are these agents doing?

Are them hallucinating? Do they have guardrails? And if they do make mistake, can we undo those mistakes? So we launched a new platform called Rubric Agent Cloud, which is a whole new product suite aimed at giving businesses confidence to do AI transformation and deploy agents at a scale. And we are hearing a very positive response from our customers. This product is in beta, but the early response have been very positive. And we are very excited about helping our customers take advantage of AI

without worrying about the Anderac's risk that it brings along. Any concerns out there geographically in enterprise software demand? I know that resilience in recovery is its own kind of area. But as we look forward to 2026, some folks are going to be wondering. As far as we are concerned, the cyber resilience market, there has been no change in the demand environment. We continue to tell customers and partners about cyber resilience. This is a massive market. We are in the early innings of this market. And with AI, the cyber attacks have become more prevalent because the attackers are using AI. So we believe that

we are in the early days of a very, very large market and we'll continue to grow at rapid pace for the foreseeable future. You got me with ludicrous. Bipple Sinha, a Rubrik CEO will let you get ready for the call. Appreciate you joining us here on overtime. Thanks, John. Up next, the big takeaway from the quarter's retail earnings and what very strong results from the dollar stores might be telling us about the consumer. And speaking of consumers, we're going to discuss whether tomorrow's key inflation gauge, that's the September PCE price index, could sway the Fed's interest rate decision next week. Be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Check out shares of dollar general crushing it today, up 14% top performer in the S&P 500.

After beating Wall Street's third quarter estimates, raising its full year outlook thanks to some higher income shoppers trading down into its stores. The retailer saying its lower income consumers are feeling increasingly stretched. The stock is now up more than 60% this year. Those numbers coming just a day after rivaled Dollar Tree also reported better than expected results. so with the vast majority of retail earnings now. In the rearview mirror, what are the takeaways for investors? Perfect person to ask, Courtney Reagan. So we saw Walmart, they've got grocery.

That sort of means one thing. They're talking about wealthier consumers shopping with them. Dollar General is saying something similar. I don't know whether this is good news or potential bad news. I don't know. I don't know that it's bad news because Walmart has been talking about a higher income shopper and the way they define that as a household income, $100,000 or more. Shopping with them more consistently for some period of time. It's not as if

they've all of a sudden attracted this high-income shopper. I mean, years, truly. And maybe they're grabbing a higher proportion of them, but it's something that's been happening. I think part of that has to do with the e-commerce business. I think some shoppers are starting to find things what they would call the long tail. So the marketplace items that maybe not, you're not necessarily finding in store. And that's an introduction. Oh, Walmart. I haven't thought about going there. And then once they use the grocery services and then the store and online together, it seems to really click. So I don't know that it's really a message about the health or unhealth of the higher income consumer in that case. What do you learn when you look across then, TJX, you look at coals and see how they're doing, especially, I guess with Dollar General, too, they've been closing some stores too.

There's a bit of an internal turnaround story there. Can you X that out and see what the others are saying? And Dollar General also can service a rural income consumer to some degree. and so they filled this fill-in-trip shopping experience that not all retailers do, and they also have some food. So a little bit of a different play there. TJX is really quite a miracle of a story, and I don't use that word lightly.

If you look at their performance, call it even since 2007, 2008, when I think some consumers that may not have considered shop there did start going there, and maybe we called it a trade down then, but they got real sticky, and they stayed. They liked the treasure hunt, and TJX is one of those companies that hasn't really gone deep online. And it's worked.

I mean, I'm shocked, to be honest. It's that treasure hunt. It still works. Their buyers do an excellent job of buying different merchandise, even based on the neighborhood. A marshals in a neighborhood can be different from a T.J.X or T.J. Max, rather, two neighborhoods over. That's interesting. Coles is probably one of my bigger surprise stories so far of the last several quarters.

Michael Bender was the interim CEO. He had been on the board. He is now officially going to, or is the official CEO. and they've had some steady progress the last three quarters. There's work to do. He has said, too, look, he's pleased. He's not satisfied. There's still more to do.

Wall Street does seem to be rewarding it, but there was, to be fair, one very strange day, I think in August, where it almost got that meme trade acceleration in Coleshares. So one day of an anomaly, but if you still look at that trajectory, Cole's share is really on a run. All right.

Well, for the record, my mother-in-law has been on TJX, T.J. Max, specifically, for a long time. So she and you. Courtney, thank you. Thank you. Well, will 2026 be a boom or a bust for the IPO market? Equity Zend's head of market insight is going to give us her outlook and the top names set to go public that should be on your radar. We'll come right back. Welcome back to overtime. Sales Force closing higher today by more than 3.5% after reporting earnings that beat the street, raising fourth quarter revenue guidance.

Jim Kramer spoke to CEO Mark Bennyoff moments ago, asked him about investors who doubted the stock. This has really been one of the saddest things that have happened in the whole year is that investors have moved away and messed out on a day like today for Salesforce because they somehow think software companies are under duress from AI when their opposite is true. Jim, software companies are being bolstered by AI powered by it. You saw it yourself at Dreamforce. You were a witness to seeing how excited customers are. Don't miss, Jim's entire interview with Mark Benioff coming up 6 p.m. on Mad Money. While IPL activity has picked up this year, making it one of the most active periods since 2021, despite broader market uncertainty and economic pressures, notable companies making their market

debuts include bullish, circle, chime, Corwe, Figma, E. Toro, Hinge Health, and more could throw Navon in there. What can we expect in 2026? Joining me now is Equity Zen, head of market insight, Brian Lynch. Brian, not all of these names have done well. And just as Mark Benioff was talking about, software doubt has played into that. How does that impact what the pipeline looks like for next year? Thanks for having me. We've certainly seen some of the companies that went public this year really have those pop moments and come down to earth. But the overall narrative has been that there investor demand for innovative, fast-growing companies. And as a whole, the class of 2025 has really led the way and given the vote of confidence for other tech companies to follow. So

as we look ahead to 2026, there are 12 very mature IPO-ready companies that are on our outlook that have been preparing for many years for their ideal moment to go public. Who do you expect to be first? It's a good question. Wealthfront is the obvious answer. They're on our 2026 list, but they've already given a range for their IPO. So could be one of the many few that decide to go public before the holidays. This is a company, you know, speaking to that trend of companies preparing for a while, they meant to be acquired by UBS back in 2022. So they've been preparing for an exit over the years.

So certainly the first to come, and we expect many others to follow next year. I see Sanjay Poonen's Cohesity on there. That's a competitor of Rubrik. We were just talking to them on the show. They're reporting today. I also see Databricks, a snowflake competitor, Ali Goetzie. Of those two or maybe another, which do you expect to be pivotal in the market's mood? As people are questioning, well, can we jump on in? Is the water fine?

I think Databricks is really the pre-IPO darling that people will be watching. It's one of the most popular companies that we've seen in the private markets. And it's also just grown tremendously. When we look at data bricks compared to public market companies, this is a company valued at over $100 billion, so a centicorn, as we now call it. They've raised up to a series K, so 11 rounds of funding, and they've been private for a very long time and have really led the market when it comes to AI-driven data solutions. So I think this is one that a lot of people will have their eye on and give a good pulse for what the AI demand is like for IPOs. How is it different, Brianne, investing in these companies? that have stayed private for so long, they could have been public companies like in the old days

for five years now. Can you expect the sort of trading dynamics that you otherwise would? And the floats tend to be small, right? That's absolutely right. What you see when you look at our list of candidates as a whole are these are much older, 12 years on average, mature companies that 20 years ago, almost all of these companies would have already been public. And that's just because of the abundant capital available to companies in the private markets. When you look at Cracken, for example, they confidentially filed last night, or last month, rather, while they simultaneously raised another round of funding at a $20 billion valuation. This is one of many examples where they're

not preparing to go public because they need access to capital. They already have plenty of access to capital in the private markets. They're still choosing to go public, though, really more as a liquidity event. And we've seen that with more of the IPO proceeds more recent, going to selling shareholders than to the company to bolster their balance sheet. All right. We'll see if the private markets finally released the crackin into the public. Brian Lynch, thank you. Thank you.

Well, I closely watched an inflation report that has been delayed because of the government's shutdown is set to be released tomorrow. Up next, we'll discuss how much of an impact that could have on the Fed's interest rate decision next week. Be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Victoria's Secret is the only name on the earnings calendar, but we will get some key inflation and consumer data. The September PCE price index will finally be released because of the government

shutdown lifting, and it's seen increasing by 2.8% year over year with the core rate rising 2.9%. We'll also get the September personal income and spending report, as well as October consumer credit and the preliminary December reading of consumer sentiment. Now, let's bring in Steve Leasman for more on how tomorrow's data could impact the Fed's interest rate decision. Steve, at first, people were expecting a cut and then got freaked out a couple weeks ago, maybe not, now definitely expecting one again. What would it take for the market to have to shift?

Well, I think that if this was a really hot report, I think the market and the Fed have come to terms, with a PCE that's going to be higher. Remember, 2.8, 2.7 on the core is not 2%, which is what the Fed is aiming for. The thing I'll be looking for from the Hawkins side is whether or not it's spread or the inflation problem can be found in the service sector.

That's something that some Fed officials have been concerned about. From the Dover side, if it's very clear that it's goods and it's all goods and the amount of inflation in the good sector, is certain to peak, we might get a feel that, hey, we've seen this tariff inflation, we know what it is, and we can predict where it's going to go. So that's going to be the key. But look, it's old data. Old data is better than no data.

That's true. The key here, though, is the next step. Is there an overall headline number, though, that raises eyebrows and concerns? Like, if we get a three, does that automatically make people sit back and say, well, let me look beneath the surface here? Yes, John, it would be my considered very accurate. opinion that three is worse than two for sure if there was a two point eight two nine if that's what's expected i mean does does three matter that much or does it come down to

that stuff under the covers that you just mentioned john it's you're good you're good to question this and go into the detail because it is going to be in the detail if it's hot it's how we got there if we got there through the tariff in the good sector it's going to be okay there's an expectation this is going to be okay If it's spreading and if there's a sense among Fed officials that this means that the trajectory back down towards two is attenuated if the slope is shallower, if we're not going to get there as fast, that would cause some hawkish reaction in the market and among the Fed. All right. Steve Leesman, thank you. And this coming as we're ending the year with a consumer that seems to be hanging in there, which is pretty solid for people who are bullish on the economy overall. but at the end the markets, where the major averages didn't do much, the Russell doing best of all, though.

That's going to do it for overtime. Fast money starts now.