Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Overtime: Morgan Interviews Virgin Galactic CEO After The Company’s First Commercial Launch; Why Joby Aviation Is Up 54% This Week 6/29/23
Episode Date: June 29, 2023The Dow and S&P 500 moved higher today. Allspring’s Ann Miletti and LPL Financial’s Jeff Buchinder break down the market action. Nike shares fell in Overtime trading after reporting earnings. CFRA...’s Zachary Warring discusses the stock. Joby Aviation stock is up 54% so far this week. Our Phil LeBeau on the reason behind the surge. Morgan sits down with Virgin Galactic CEO Michael Colglazier live in New Mexico after the company’s first commercial flight. PagerDuty CEO Jennifer Tejada talks the company’s stock performance and incorporating AI for its customers. MKM Partners Chief Market Technician JC O’Hara on top picks in small-caps.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Well, there's your scorecard on Wall Street.
Winner stay late, though.
Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime.
I am John Ford.
Morgan Brennan is live in New Mexico, where Virgin Galactic just completed its first commercial
space flight earlier today.
She's going to talk exclusively with Galactic CEO Michael Colglazer a bit later in the show.
Also this hour, Nike is gearing up to report earnings results after lagging the market
so far this year.
We're going to bring you the numbers as soon as they cross.
But now let's get straight to our market panel.
Joining us now, Ann Mileti from Allscreen Global Investments and Jeff Bookbinder from LPL Financial.
Guys, welcome.
Ann, the Russell kind of outperformed today.
What's going on with this kind of difference in the way the indices
are responded? Are we waiting for another piece of information, perhaps even next week's jobs report?
Look, I think the market's constantly waiting for data and investors are as well.
And it's been a little bit of a roller coaster ride. You get good data, the market reacts to that, and then some challenging data and the market
reacts to that.
But it's all dependent on the data and what the Fed's going to do.
Look, we've been in the camp that the Fed still has some work to do, that they're going
to continue to raise rates.
And that likely will take us into a recession.
Probably won't be a very deep one, but we will get there.
And so we have been in the camp of let's just be cautious about the types of stocks we buy.
That didn't mean we wanted to stay away from small or mid cap. that they should look outside of those big cap names that have been, you know, maybe too popular because the risk reward just wasn't as favorable.
And if you look down cap, the valuations were much more attractive.
Jeff, how about that GDP revision, though?
I mean, I know you're saying you think the market needs a breather, but it can also keep marching higher. So what do investors
do here if the market needs a breather, but perhaps isn't taking one? Yeah, John, it depends
on your timeframe, right? So, you know, there's certainly a number of reasons to think this bull
keeps on running, right? I mean, it's been a confirmed real bull market. We've seen higher highs and higher lows.
We, of course, got the 20 percent move off of the October lows last fall.
We're seeing cyclical sectors do better than the defensives.
You know, in particular, consumer discretionary versus consumer staples has broken out to a new 52 week high.
So that tells you this is a real bull. And if you look at history,
eight-month-old bulls are typically up 25% or so. We're following that playbook. We're up about 23%
in this young bull. If you look at how stocks perform off of mid-year election year lows,
up about 30% historically. Maybe that's a little too much to expect this
time, but certainly we could see some gains around the presidential cycle.
OK.
You know, there's a number of reasons to think that we we keep running, even though, yeah,
sure, on a short term basis, we're a little bit hot.
All right. And you say you see opportunity in emerging markets. Which ones?
I mean, because these baskets have a whole lot of different countries in them, different regions that can have a whole lot of different issues.
And sometimes they conflict with each other.
They do.
And what I'm hearing from our investment teams that specialize in emerging markets is to look for very unique opportunities.
And specifically, they're looking at the countries that had peak inflation, peak rates early in the
cycle, and that headwind is now becoming a tailwind. So take Brazil, for example. They saw
interest rates go up substantially after seeing inflation go to the mid-teens level.
That is now, they're taking rates down. So, that very strong headwind is turning into a tailwind.
So, while that might take some time to work, it certainly is going in the right direction.
You know, also, John, as you know, and as you all talk about so often, the dollar plays a very big
factor into emerging markets.
And the dollar has been significantly strong in 2021 and 2022.
If that just flattens out, it again creates that headwind and it flattens out and it becomes less of a headwind, more of a tailwind for emerging markets as we go through the 2023 and beyond.
All right. We covered a lot. And Jeff, thank you. more of a tailwind for emerging markets as we go through the 2023 and beyond.
All right. We covered a lot. And Jeff, thank you. And we're going to cover some more. Let's turn now to senior markets commentator Mike Santoli at the New York Stock Exchange, looking at the
divergence between large and small cap stocks. Mike. Yeah, just hitting on it, John. And yes,
still a wide divergence, but less so recently after the June performance. This is
the 50 largest stocks in the market, essentially the extra large XLG ETF relative to the Russell
2000. So this goes back on a year to date basis. And I keep pointing out that was the break right
there. That was SVB failing. And all of a sudden, credit becomes scarce and balance sheets become
more important and size is a proxy for that.
But you do see this, a nice bounce back, even as you've had some give back on the larger side.
I'm not as concerned for the magnitude of this gap, of this divergence, as much as if they're both moving roughly in the same direction.
That's probably OK. And small caps certainly have a lot of room to catch up if, in fact, credit conditions seem OK and the overall economy nominal GDP is working.
Take a look at the 10 year Treasury yield because it is sort of bumping up against an area it hasn't exceeded for a while.
Also, since that stress event back in March. So you see 385.
That was basically the area everyone was looking at to see if it would break out.
We're right on the verge of that. Of course, we get the inflation numbers tomorrow.
It's kind of becoming harder to say that this is in a downtrend if it goes much higher than that.
So the absolute levels may be not that extreme.
We were certainly well above 4% back at the end of last year.
But this is when the stock market bottomed, when we had a line of sight to where the Fed was going to end and inflation was coming down. So with inflation coming down, of course, this level of yield, even if it stays right here,
becomes a little bit more restrictive. That's doing some of the Fed's job for it.
So definitely worth monitoring as we get through the inflation numbers tomorrow, John.
OK, so, Mike, I want to go back to that first chart that you showed us that had the XLG, right?
And there's 50 stocks in that ETF, I believe.
How does it work? Because it's 50 stocks in that ETF, I believe.
How does it work?
Because it's a lot fewer than that, probably less than 10 are having such a huge impact on the S&P itself. Is this one equal weighted or even within the XLG?
Are there some extra, extra large stocks having an even bigger influence on that gap?
Yeah, it'll be disproportionately toward the larger ones.
At least
the outperformers are definitely driving things. So it's just another way of slicing away,
I guess, the average rank and file stocks from the market. So it might look quite similar to
something like, you know, 25 percent up, something similar to the mega cap growth ETF or things like
that, just a little bit less skewed toward technology,
though. So I wonder if you are looking at that gap at home and thinking, if I'm putting more
into the Russell right now versus the S&P or the XLG, what am I really betting on broadly?
How is that balancing out my portfolio? How is that different from when the
weightings are more normal versus how they are right now? I mean, look, you're definitely betting
if you go small cap on a long term reversion to the mean because small caps have been on the outs
for a very long time. Many people have been looking at this period very similar to the early 2000s, when you had a similar kind of blow off in the Nasdaq like we had in 2021.
Then a bear market coming out of that bear market.
Smaller stocks did well.
Now, we had a little wrinkle in that because the AI phenomenon is taking the fang back up
and it's not really going to that script.
Yeah.
Except we've got to replace the N perhaps in the fang when it comes to AI.
Mike Santoli, thank you. NVIDIA, by the way. Shares of Virgin Galactic falling hard today despite the
successful completion of its first commercial spaceflight in New Mexico. That is where we find
Morgan Brennan today. Hey, Morgan. Hey, John. That's right. So Virgin Galactic launching
commercial service today. This was a big, long-awaited milestone after a string of delays for Richard Branson's 19-year-old company.
Galactic One, that's what this mission was called, it was a 72-minute trip with a Unity space plane launching from the air, traveling to an altitude of 53 miles, so just past the U.S.-defined start of space. The crew, which included three paying customers for the Italian Air Force, conducting experiments and research during their few minutes of weightlessness before Unity glided
back and landed smoothly on the runway. Now, I spoke with astronaut Colonel Walter Villaday,
who is also slated to travel to the International Space Station with Axiom. Take a listen.
In this case, I was trained to look at the experiments and to follow some procedures.
So it was a kind of in a nutshell, a kind of compressed space flight mission.
And let me say that this kind of approach that both the commercial space flight Axiom and Virgin
are bringing in this new commercial space flight sector is amazing.
It's a great opportunity for all of us.
This really speaks to this new era of commercial space
and what it's enabling, not only for so-called tourists,
but also for governments and researchers too.
Now for Virgin Galactic, pending inspections and reviews,
the plan now, monthly space flights.
Still, as you mentioned, John,
the stock did fall double digits today, down almost 11% on the day post space flight.
KeyBank writing, quote, we believe investors could view the successful flight as a sell the news event,
as a full ramp of its commercial operations via its next generation Delta class fleet, which is under development, still remains years away.
Now, Virgin Galactic also recently announced plans to
raise more capital by selling shares. But we're going to discuss all of that and so much more
when CEO Michael Colglazier joins me exclusively in just a few minutes. John?
We are looking forward to that. And tell me, ahead of that, how much demand is there for this kind of maybe even commercial space flight,
but for governments, at what price, given that there's already an International Space Station,
but that comes with all kinds of complexities when you have geopolitical strife on the ground?
Yeah, that's just one piece of that puzzle, right?
And this actually came up in my conversation with Krinovilla today as well, this idea that,
especially if you're trying to do any kind of research or science experiments or even
certain types of training in microgravity right now, or at least up until today, it's
sort of been this market that you have these zero-g flights that are very short-lived,
or then you have the International Space Station, where you're paying tens of millions of dollars to go and is a much
more detailed complicated trip that's involved, a longer duration trip, and that
there's been sort of this gap in the market in terms of being able to access
microgravity and do this type of work. So that is very much I think speaking to
this first commercial mission for Virgin Galactic,
the fact that this was focused on the Italian Air Force and that type of work.
Keep in mind, though, John, as well, you're talking about a company with an 800-person backlog.
Those tickets span anywhere from $200,000 to $450,000.
But when you're talking about these types of research-focused missions,
the ticket price can actually go even
higher than that. It can be an even higher value spaceflight for the company looking out to
these monthly trips and working down that backlog and what this is going to now mean
financially for this company as it's generating revenue. Now, I take it for research purposes,
a lot of the customers are going to want to stay up there longer, right? They probably just did the shorter one because it was their first and they'll do longer ones.
I don't know. Do we know yet how long the standard is going to be for that type of a flight?
And are they charging by the hour or is it different just by the customer type?
What do you mean? You mean for Virgin Galactic specifically and the service that they're offering?
Sure, yeah.
It's a, yeah, so it's a, I mean, so this is an all-in, it's a 90-minute flight.
You experience going on this trip, you experience several minutes of weightlessness, and this
is essentially what this company does and how it does it.
Right now, currently, there's one spaceship.
There is one mothership that carries that spaceship to an altitude of 45,000 feet
to then air launch, from which it then air launches.
But the plan here, the game plan, and this is what's going to be playing out now over the coming years,
and part of the reason that the company is raising capital is to build out a next generation fleet of spaceships to cater to all of that demand.
All right. Well, we are looking forward to your conversation in just a few moments with
Galactic CEO Michael Kohlglaser, Morgan Brennan on the ground for us with that important launch.
And now the countdown is also on for Nike earnings due out in just moments.
We're going to bring you those results and talk to a bearish analyst
about why he's got a sell rating on the stock.
Overtime's back in two.
Welcome back to Overtime.
Three companies made their public debuts today,
showing signs of, well, at least activity in the IPO market.
Here's a look at how they performed in their first day of trading. First, well, let's start with thrift store company Savers Value Village.
It got a big pop after pricing above its target range, closing higher by 27 percent.
Next, Kodiak Gas Services closing lower after pricing below its range. Finally, Fidelis
Insurance Holdings faring the worst of the three, falling nearly 8% after also pricing below
its target range. So is that signs of life? I don't know. Well, Nike, earnings are out. We are
going through the numbers right now. And in the meantime, let's get CFRA analyst
Zachary Waring, one of the street's few analysts, with a sell rating on the stock. Let me see,
what is the stock doing after hours? A little bit too soon to tell directionally. But Zachary,
you don't have this sell rating because you don't like Nike. It's mostly valuation and
high expectations, you say?
Yeah, that's right. So thanks for having me, John. You know, Nike's had benefited over the last three years from the pandemic and stimulus in the United States. And we think the multiple
got a little bit out of hand. We think in the future, it's more likely to trade around 2017 to 2019 levels, somewhere in the high 20s, so 25 to 30 times next 12 months EPS.
And that's kind of our argument.
So $88 price target, which is quite a bit lower from where it is now. How important are inventories, those inventory levels, to seeing how you're
going to feel about it? And how much does China's economic performance factor in?
Yeah, both are pretty big. So obviously, first and foremost is inventories, because with,
you know, elevated inventories, usually you need to bring promotional activity.
Hold tight for just a moment, Zachary. I want to come back to you, but let's get the details on Nike's results from Mike Santoli.
Mike?
Yeah, John.
Nike missing by a penny on earnings per share in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Now, those estimates also were down significantly from three months ago.
So relatively low bar.
Did not quite make it on earnings per share.
Although sales revenue for the quarter were higher than expected, $12.83 billion in revenue.
The estimate was more like $12.6 billion.
Revenues, $8.5 billion, seemed flat on a year-over-year basis.
Some other items to keep in mind, China sales were better than forecast, $1.81 billion versus $1.68.
So kind of a mixed bag. The stock has been sort
of in limbo for a while right here. You see the immediate response was a decline, but it seems
like maybe some comfort on the inventory side. China growth. North America also was a bright
spot, John. All right, Mike. Thanks. So stay with us here. Zachary, so some of your concerns
reflected here, but the stock's not reacting that
much. There's a long way down to that $88 price target. And we just got that GDP revision showing
that perhaps things aren't as bad as some thought closer to home. Might you have to rethink what you
expect out of Nike? Yeah, we might. So that's definitely something we'll keep in mind. Obviously, we think China's
a big story here, and it looks like a little bit better than expected. But we'd like to
see the inventories probably a little bit lower than they are right now. And we still
think that durable goods are going to feel some pressure in the second half of the year
as consumers continue to spend on services and entertainment. Okay. Mike Santoli, this revenue, the top line performance,
I wonder how much attention we're going to pay to that as we're looking at the health of the
consumer, certainly globally, but also in the U.S. I mean, it's a strong brand. It's a brand
associated with outdoors and doing things, which is pretty
popular with consumers now. Yeah, just doing things, right, John? So yes, absolutely. And
gross margin was down. So that gives you the squaring the circle between higher than expected
sales and a slight miss on the earnings. Should also point out Nike is one of those companies
that awaits till the conference call to give any kind of guidance. So we are going to wait
for that. A lot of the street felt as if this is going to be another quarter where they're
going to be working through those issues, but perhaps turning, you know, for the better when
it comes to the inventory management. So there's been some progress on that front. China having
some decent growth there, double digit. And then the question is, you know, what else is left to
come as the valuation is? I would say the valuation premium on Nike shares is basically at the 10-year average versus the S&P,
but certainly not cheap up toward 30 times forward earnings.
All right. Let's see. Are we going on to the earnings alert?
We are. Mike, thank you. And thank you as well to Zachary Waring.
We have a news alert now on Goldman Sachs.
Christina Partsenevelis has those details.
Christina?
Well, John, Goldman Sachs right now is confirming it plans to add Tom Montag to its board.
Montag is a former longtime Goldman executive.
He's also a veteran of Bank of America.
But more importantly, he's an appointment by David Sullivan,
the CEO of Goldman Sachs, and the idea is that Montag will shore up support for David Sullivan
as Goldman Sachs goes through a brutal run just over the last little while.
John?
Right. Christina, thank you.
After the break, Virgin Galactic successfully completing its first commercial spaceflight today,
potentially ushering in a new era of adventure tourism.
But the stock is pulling back.
We'll head back to New Mexico for an exclusive interview with the company's CEO when Overtime
returns.
Well, it was a big day for the IPO market, kind of.
Savers Value Village, Kodiak Gas Services, and Fidelis Insurance made their debuts at
the New York Stock Exchange today with some mixed results.
Mike Santoli's back with a look.
Mike, is it a good thing when the thrift store has the best price action?
Well, it's a thrift store, but it's also a growth retail concept.
So I'm kind of reluctant to draw the macro message out of that, although, you know, this is a thought for sure, but it's far from really heating up. So three modest sized deals definitely shows the IPO market waking up.
And this barometer so-called from Goldman Sachs is trying to gauge the atmospheric conditions for
whether more IPOs are likely to be expected. So, yes, they're saying it comes up to the 100 level,
which is the historical median volume of IPO issuance.
Now, that's probably more than just, you know, five deals over two weeks.
So it shows you that things like equity valuations, how far the S&P is from its 52-week high, the stability of interest rates.
Those are all the things that go into this barometer.
It has recently picked up.
So we should expect more deals.
It has been a long drought.
There are a lot of companies kind of lined up on the runway, so to speak. And you have some motivated sellers such as those
backing the three companies that came public today. You have private equity in there.
They just want deals to happen. So the other thing to point out here is just look at how
just wildly overheated the market was in 2020 and 2021 and then a very violent recoil off of that. So something closer to the norm
would probably be welcome, I think, for investors. Now, take a look, too, at the IPO ETF,
Renaissance IPO ETF, also relative to the cloud, one of the cloud stock ETFs as well. Been very
similar over three years. It shows you that they're feeding off of that same stream of energy
for kind of new big picture concepts, unprofitable tech, things like that.
Final point about the IPO ETF.
It's no longer really an IPO ETF.
It's been so long since we had deals.
Most of these companies, or big ones anyway, are more than two years old in terms of being public companies.
And it's supposed to only be stocks that have come public in the last two years.
There just haven't been enough of them to fill the ETF, John.
Bad sign, though, that a couple priced below the range and then didn't have great price action? I wouldn't say a bad sign. I think it's probably good that we have
kind of a two-way discerning market for new deals. And I think you need a little more
representation, a wider statistical sample to say whether the capital markets are again
turning flush or not.
All right. More companies got to jump in so we can figure out what's going on. Mike, thank you.
Up next, the CEO of PagerDuty on why generative AI is helping to create software could actually
be a boon for her business. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime.
PagerDuty shares closing slightly lower today, down nearly 20% since the last quarterly report when guidance came in below estimates.
Joining us now is PagerDuty CEO, Jen Tejada.
Jen, good to see you.
We need PagerDuty for airplanes because I was hoping to have you here, but the flight situation hasn't
been great. Just want to touch on earnings since I haven't talked to you since then. What's happening
with the SMB customer base versus the larger customers that are providing kind of more of
the growth and momentum for your business? Well, John, thank you again for having me. And yeah,
I'm sorry I couldn't be there. I was on one of those 7,500 flights that was canceled going to the East Coast and found it very hard to find a new flight there. So I
appreciate you seeing me remotely today. As you mentioned, we had strong earnings,
continued to post good growth, 21%. We improved our profitability with 16% non-GAAP operating
margins up 1,800 basis points.
And we continue to see enterprise remain very resilient.
Our customers very engaged with a record number of transactions.
But we definitely continue to also see macro environment impacts,
particularly in SMB and mid-market where deals are taking longer,
transactions are smaller, we're seeing more scrutiny around deals. And,
you know, when I talk to customers and I'm out seeing customers all the time across all of our
segments, I'm hearing the same thing. They're concerned about the unpredictability and
volatility of the market that's in front of them. And so they're operating more cautiously right now
than I think we've seen in the past. Having said that, they're also all talking about the
increased challenge they face as consumers and employees are placing more and more importance
on experiences. And we see this in summer travel with record number of travelers. I was in an
airport today, record number of travelers out and about really trying to invest in experiences. And when those experiences fail
through some part of the technology ecosystem not working well, customers choose other providers.
They leave. Go ahead. Yeah, let's talk about the role of AI in that because I've been talking
about this. You and I talked about it a little bit, the role of generative AI in writing code,
we could end up with some mass-produced mediocrity out there in the quality of code.
Part of what pager duty does is find problems when things are breaking,
you know, that could bring a system down and make sure that people are alerted
before it causes a larger problem.
How are you both using AI to help with the automation software
that you have to fix problems and what kind of problems might generative AI cause for customers'
IT systems? Well, we absolutely think generative AI and the increasing use of generative AI and
even the consumerization of generative AI are going to expand PagerDuty's
TAM because more software, more innovation generally leads to more complexity. And we've
seen that in other technology transitions, whether it was the democratization of compute through
cloud, you know, the mainstream use of the smartphone and all the app development that
came with that. And, you know, I think when you just look at how complexity scales and becomes harder and harder for humans to manage,
automation and intelligent automation become increasingly more important.
And PagerDuty has used AI foundationally across its platform for over a decade with a data model,
in fact, that's foundational. And now we're applying generative AI
to things like postmortem status updates, even choosing the right automation runbook to run.
And so I think not only will AI help us to make it easier for our customers and users to engage
with automation on our platform, it also helps us across the business to become more efficient as
well. So I'm incredibly
excited about generative AI. I also think it's early days. I mean, we're at the, go ahead.
No, I'm just saying, okay, it's early days. So we're going to have to, we're going to have to
see where it goes. I appreciate you dropping in to give us the update. Jen Tejada, the CEO of
PagerDuty. Hope to see you again soon. My pleasure. Nice to see you, John. Thank you.
Up next, we're going to dig deeper into Nike's earnings as the company gets set to kick off its earnings call.
In just a few minutes, we'll be right back.
Welcome back to Overtime.
Nike shares moving lower, down almost 4% ahead of the call after the company missed earnings estimates.
Though revenue did top expectations, Nike's margins fell, citing higher input costs.
The earnings call kicks off just a few minutes at the top of the hour.
Meantime, small caps have been underperforming the S&P 500 all year.
But up next, a top technical strategist reveals three under-the-radar small caps
that might deliver big returns for your portfolio.
We'll put them under the microscope in overtime returns.
Welcome back.
Small caps having a bit of a moment with the Russell 2000 closing higher for the fourth session in a row.
Up more than 3% this week, 7% this month.
Joining us with some under-the-radar small cap picks is MKM Partners Chief Market Technician, J.C. O'Hara.
J.C., let's get straight into like three names that you like.
In technology, onto innovation, semiconductor manufacturing, why?
Well, you know, I think investors are overlooking small caps, you know, as a whole.
The average small cap technology stock is up 33% year to date,
versus the average S&P 500 tech stock is up 23%.
And we keep hearing the strength in large cap tech,
but small cap tech is actually outperforming.
And one of our favorite names within the Russell 2000 is onto innovation.
Great balance sheet has been giving upside surprises on guidance for
14 consecutive quarters. And for us, you know, we pay attention to the chart. The chart is extremely
strong. The stock is breaking out to a new 52 week high this week. So I want to be chasing that
momentum in this market. OK, so one of these names front door that does home service plans,
I was looking at some of the names in your small cap
picks list. They seem to have to do with the idea that people are going to have to make do
with what they've got, perhaps in an inflationary environment where you can't afford to get new
stuff. Exactly. And a lot of these names were indiscriminately sold off right over the last
two years. Front door building, building supply company was down 65 percent over the last two years. Front door building supply company was down 65% over
the last two years, right? We feel like that pendulum really swung way into that overly
pessimistic area on the chart. Now we're seeing a rebound, right? We're slowly starting to see
trends improve, momentum improve. We're breaking out to a new weekly high today. So we don't have to go all the way back to where we were in 2020.
But, you know, a reversion to mean move for this sort of chart is extremely powerful
and extremely meaningful in terms of P&L.
Now, I'm almost a little afraid to ask, why Matthews International?
Don't they do tombstones?
Why are you excited about them?
They do. I think the proper word is memorialization. I can't even pronounce it.
Yeah, that's a euphemism, but we know what that's about.
Yes. So this is an industrial company that goes all the way back to 1860, right? It has strong,
strong balance sheets. But what I like about it is it's undergoing a technological
revamp right here. And that's being reflected into the price chart. The price chart is breaking out
to new highs. So again, another small cap name breaking out to 52-week highs. We want to be
chasing this momentum. How do you do a technological revamp on tombstones? That is a great question. I think we have to save that for
another day. Well, hopefully we have another day. Hopefully we don't need the product before we get
back to it. So bigger picture on small caps right now, they tend to be more volatile during turbulent
times. If the market's turning down, if the economy is turning down the right now, things
are looking up. You know, the people who are
predicting a recession this year, a lot of them are pushing it out to next year. What's your
expectation for how small caps return, respond, even post, say, the jobs report, which we're
looking for at the end of next week? Well, if you think about it, investors and, you know,
institutional portfolio managers have had over two years to
prepare their portfolio for this consensus call of a recession. And every time the recession gets
kicked down the road, small caps look a lot more valuable. But the issue is, history suggests you
don't want to own small caps in front of a recession. That's not the best time in the cycle
to own these small caps. But, you know, you have this
bias, right? The S&P is up 14% year to date. Russell 2000 is up 6% year to date, right? So
that confirms that, hey, a recession could be coming large cap outperformance.
OK. Well, we'll leave it there. We'll leave it there. That gives people a lot to chew on. J.C. O'Hara, thank you. With some insight into small caps.
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