Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Musk Pay Packages Passes; Global Market Hotspots 11/6/25

Episode Date: November 6, 2025

Farr, Miller & Washington’s Michael Farr breaks down the big earnings movers, including Affirm, Block, Expedia and Airbnb. William Blair’s Jed Dorsheimer breaks down Musk’s pay package vote. HSBC’s Alastair Pinder on where to invest globally. Rockwell Automation CEO Blake Moret on his company’s strong quarter and using AI. LinkedIn Head of Economics Kory Kantenga on alternative jobs data.   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That bell marks the end of regulation. Our electronics driven the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Alps, group through the honors at the NASDAQ, and it's another down day for the markets. The Dow down, let's see, more than 400 points, the S&P 500 down about 1%. The NASDAQ lower by close to 2%, consumer discretionary and tech, the big drags, energy, one of the only two sectors gaining. Chips pulling tech lower, big losses for Nvidia and AMD. Qualcomm also falling after its positive results. More on tech's big movers coming up.

As for energy, oil flat today, but another gain for gnat gas. It is now up 35% in the month. Well, that's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Ahead, another big afternoon of earnings. Fintech and travel taking center stage, Affirm and Block.

We're also going to hear from Expedia and Win Resorts, Draft Kings reporting following its deal with ESPN Bet. And Tesla's shareholder meetings starting now. Did shareholders approve Elon Musk's trillion dollar pay package, much more on Tesla coming up. Plus, Rockwell Automation. It's one of the few stocks hitting a 52-week high today. In fact, it's 52-year high, dating back to its IPO. We're going to talk to the company's CEO about the earnings and especially the guidance, which is what has propelled the stock higher as we talk about things like factories of the future and robots.

Let's get to the moves behind today's declines. Sima Modi is at the New York Stock Exchange. John, another big reversal in technology. Qualcomm's strong report. Not enough to lift sentiment, Nvidia and AMD, trading down as well. But it was software where we saw bigger losses. Bank of America writing midday that software's big problem is the threat of open AI displacing the incumbents with new numbers showing faster enterprise adoption.

Salesforce ending the day down by around 5%. Even software infrastructure names, not like Oracle getting close to erasing its September gains on concerns around the money. needs to raise in the debt market to fund its AI chip purchases, and then weak forecast from the likes of HubSpot, Duolingo, Fortinette. That certainly didn't help today's price action. But Datadog was one of the outliers. Upby quarterly numbers, CEO Olivia Pomel, pointing to strong consumer interest in its AI agents with, quote, very enthusiastic feedback that they're receiving. The stock closing higher by over 23 percent, John and Morgan.

All right. Simomodi, thank you. Now let's turn to the bond market. Yields moving lower on a big jump in layoffs from October with the data we did actually get today. Rick Santellia is in Chicago with more. Hi, Rick. Hi, Morgan. Indeed, we have a real dearth of data, but we did have Challenger Great Christmas announced layoffs today early this morning. And, well, it was the most layoffs in eight months since March, 153,000. March was 170,000. That was February, excuse me, and January was 172,000. So the first couple months of this, you know, year had more announced layoffs, but this really took the market a bit by surprise. And remember, if you look at a two-day chart, yesterday we saw yields move up about some

nervousness regarding more supply potentially down the road of coupons, twos through 30s. And today we gave much of that back on the announced layoffs. And we did see percentages of a Fed rate cut for December moved from yesterday around 60 percent to today slightly over 70 percent. And 10-year, yesterday, close to the six weeks. high yield close. We're reversing off of that. The big question is, will we revisit under 4% or not? We have had six closes under 4% in 2025 all in October. And finally, the dollar index had a very aggressive close yesterday. It had two days above 100, but then it ended. And that six-month

high close that we had is reversing a bit following interest rates lower, along with equities. John Ford, back to you. Rick Santelli, thank you. Well, all four major averages back in the red after yesterday's bounce. Tech, once again, the laggard as some recent high flyers returned to Earth. Should investors view any pullback as a buying opportunity? Farr, Miller, and Washington President CEO, Michael Farr, joins us. Michael, good to see you.

Some of the highest valuation stocks in the market are also the biggest in tech. And so even beneath the index level, I wonder, is there anywhere to hide? Won't the whole market get dragged down if there's a sentiment shift away from tech that hits the biggest? Hi, John. Yes, of course. The whole market, when the tide falls, everything goes down. But a lot of the stuff that really hasn't performed, though it will likely go down, doesn't go down as much. If you look at some of these companies that are up 100% in a year, they've got a lot of air underneath them. And if you listen to Jonathan Krenski just before this, we came on, talking about the technical analysis, this is one of the longest periods where we really haven't gone down precipitously in a while.

So technically, and after you would expect things to come down. But I think the earnings reports today are going to give us a lot of clarity and a lot of clarity into the long-term strength of the consumer and the economy. So I think it's an exciting afternoon of earnings. You've got to watch your show today. So then, Michael, what would the strategy be then to buy the indices, S&P say when it drops here, the hot names, or maybe the names that have been less hot? You know, my friend Jim Labenthal has been saying by the equal weighted S&P 500. So much of the S&P 500 is concentrated in the MAG 7 right now, in those very narrow names.

30%, 25, 30% of the whole index is in these very few names. So you're not getting the same diversification, is the worry. On the other hand, those names are being driven. driven by AI. And I think the pricing of AI and the expectations for AI has gotten a little ahead of itself. I don't think it's going to be wrong in the long term. But it does seem that some settling, repricing, and probably testing of the right level, the right prices for those stocks is important. So can you really try to hit them where they ain't? Are there plenty of companies out there still trading at reasonable multiples that are safe and have good dividends? Yes. And I don't think this is a time for risk taking. It's clearly a time. for caution. Michael, we've had a lot of Fed speak this week, even though we haven't necessarily had a lot of data. What is the Fed messaging here? Is December something that the markets are now perhaps taking off the table and that's adding to the jitters we're seeing? No question about it. Look, markets not liking what the Fed is saying, but the Fed is saying what the Fed said they were going to say,

which is we are adjusting rates to find the right level. We're trying to get to get to equal. We're trying to get to fair. We're trying to get to even. We're not trying to ease. We're not trying to stimulate. We're not trying to accommodate. We're not changing course. So we've done two cuts. And now we want to wait and see. And we need to look at the data. But today's data, as you look at the earnings from a firm or win or block or Expedia, I mean, all of them, I think, Draft Kings, Airbnb, each one of these gives you a terrific insight into the consumer. Somewhere they're spending money they don't have. and others that are spending discretionary dollars.

We know that the consumer drives the economy. Are they still going to be spending and are they going to come through these earnings numbers? I think it's going to, these are really important afternoon of earnings. Well, that is the perfect tee-up, because we're going to start to find that out right now. Michael, stay right there. Expedia earnings are out.

And the company's reporting EPS of $7.57 versus estimates of $6.92. Revenue also beating, coming in at $4.1 billion versus estimates of $4.3. to $8 billion. I think there's a number off there. Booked room nights coming in at 108 million versus estimates of 103.87 million. And the company sees fourth quarter revenue growth of 6 to 8% versus estimates a 2.7%. You can see shares of Expedia are taken off right now. They're up almost 9%. So Michael Farr, if I go back to you for response to this, the fact that we have such a strong report here signals what? Oh, that's huge. That's huge. Consumers are spending, they're spending discretionary dollars,

they're going to travel, and they're not just spending a little bit. I mean, these are really big beats. And you're looking at 108 million nights instead of 103 million nights, and now we're going to go into the holiday travel season coming up. This is a strong consumer. Now, does the consumer, which consumers are spending? We need to watch. But boy, these are terrific numbers. And we're in that season two where, you know, you need a great number. to have a good market reaction. If you have a good number, you're going to have a so-so reaction and a bad number, you're killed.

So this was a really great number. Good for Expedia. I mean, that's huge, way above any expectations. Yeah, I guess maybe if you can afford to travel, you're doing it. But we're missing some of that overall perspective that comes from the government data. We did get those challenger numbers earlier today that suggests that the layoffs,

announced layoffs are spiking more than we've seen in quite a while. But then again, we got some big companies. So maybe this is more on account of a couple of larger names announcing what they intend to do. How much should investors factor that in? I think you have to. I think you have to see that companies are cautious. They're pulling back. They're trying to focus on their bottom lines and they're cutting where they can. Some of this will be driven by AI and some of it will be driven by AI expectations. I think a larger part is being driven by AI investment, meaning the companies are taking so much cash, and they're investing that in AI, that they're cutting people in order to find the money to do it. But if you think about a company, we just

looked at Expedia. We know we've got when. We know, but there's also a company called a firm, of course, that's reporting today. They've got a buy, now, pay later, a huge part of their business. That's going to take a look, and it's expanding. It's expanding at a remarkable and to me troublesome rate because folks don't have the money to pay and buy what they need. You're buying groceries on buy, now, pay later. So the lower cohort of the economy are continuing to struggle. We have to watch as this economy and the consumer continues to be the haves and the have-not story. We're still being driven, I think, with some of this discretionary stuff by more of the haves.

Okay, well, stay right there. We've got another earnings report to bring you. MP Materials reporting results just moments ago. Adjusted loss of 10 cents per share. That was better than the 18 cents loss expected. Revenue just shy of estimates, though, 53.6 million versus estimates of 54.9 million. MP noting it ceased all sales of products in China, in part because of its deal with the Pentagon. That resulted in no revenue recognized from rare earth concentrate during the quarter, driving the 15% decline and consolidated revenue year over year. So keep that in mind with that top line number.

That said, production ramping. It's at record levels. And that Pennsylvania. price protection agreement going into effect on October 1st. Now, MP Materials CEO and founder Jim Littinsky telling me, quote, in the current quarter, we're going to return to very healthy profitability, and we expect that beyond. So obviously, there's now an official significant inflection upwards in our cash flow starting now. Lintinsky saying it's on track to produce magnets at commercial scale by year end. Disclosing plans to begin commissioning a new heavy rare earth separation facility in mid-20206. That's some news there for investors. Something to watch for on the conference call. Latinsky planning to share some information

about the industry overall. After so much volatility in the sector and hype in the stocks that are pitching mining and our production plans for rare earths, this is obviously the name out there that is furthest along in terms of a vertically integrated supply chain that's being stood up in the rare earth's magnet space. So it would be interesting to hear what they have to say on the call. You can see those shares, though, right now are down 3% here in overtime. We've got more earnings. Take two interactive. Earnings are out, and that stock is tanking two. So Steve Kovac has those numbers. Steve. Yeah, let me tell you why here, Morgan. It's not because of the quarter that they just reported. Those numbers look good. It's the

further delay of grant theft.06. It was supposed to come out of May 26 next year. They're now delaying that to November of 2026. This is the second delay for this game. And so you see shares reacting there. This does not affect their current fiscal year, but you can imagine that once we get guidance for their next fiscal year, that's going to adjust some things as well. This is still going to be a really big seller. Regardless of when this comes out, the anticipation is through the roof for this game. And these games are incredibly complex to get off the ground and make perfect before they launch a huge enormous effort. So it's not unusual for them to get delayed. But here you see shares reacting down nearly 11 percent, guys. Yeah, that's rough. Well, we got more earnings from some fintechs, Block and Affirm. McKenzie Seagalos has those numbers. Matt. Hey, John, so it's a miss on the top and bottom line for Block. Those shares down more than 8% right now. Adjusted EPS coming in at 54 cents versus the 67 cent estimate that is on revenue of 6.11 billion for the quarter versus 6.31 billion expected. This is a fourth straight quarter. The company has reported a double miss, and it's six straight quarter that it's missed on revenue. adjusted EBITA, also coming in light at $833 million versus the street estimate of $840 million.

I did just catch up with CFO Amrida Ahuja. She pointed to gross profit as a bright spot, saying they've now seen back-to-back quarters of double-digit growth there, and they're now guiding to $10.2 billion in gross profit for the year. Okay, turning now to affirm those shares about 4.5% higher now. It is a beat on the top and bottom line. EPS coming in at $0.23, which is ahead of the street, estimate of 11 cents. Revenue is 933 million for the quarter versus 883 million expected gross merchandise volume, a key metric looking at the total value of transactions that hit 10.8 billion topping forecasts and guidance for next quarter. That actually came in a touchlight

at 1.03 billion to 1.06 billion. But for the full year, gross merchandise volume is ahead of estimates at 47.5 billion implying annual revenue of 3.99 billion. Back to you guys. All right, McKenzie, thank you. Michael Farr, you're just talking about a firm, a little bit of a mixed bag here, the puts and takes between Block and a firm. I guess one way to look at it is positive with Buy Now Pay Later because the terms are arguably not as arduous as some credit cards, particularly when it comes to payment over time and the compounding of the interest. differently because we've had Max Lechon on and he argues, you know, well, the way he argues it, I should say, this might be part of the safety valve for the consumer here.

It's a part of a safety valve for the computer consumer. But what you're hearing, though, for a buy-now pay later, particularly when it comes for the necessary items, for the non-discretionary stuff, like food and groceries, that's not healthy. That's not healthy at all. So that's telling you from the bottom end of the consumer that they are struggling. This company's making money, and while it's not credit card onerous, there's still interest rates and profiting off of these folks who can be at rather desperate moments. Companies also doubled revenues in the past year. I mean, for a company in the right part, I think, of the financial, consumer financial space, they're really on a tear. Everything I see there looks very strong and not my favorite way to see them making part of their money, but they're meeting a need, and they are providing that. safety valve. So it kind of hurts me a little bit that folks are having that much trouble.

All right. Michael Farr, thank you. Well, Tesla shareholder meeting kicking off. The key issue on the agenda, Elon Musk. Is he worth a trillion dollars to the company? And it's investors. We're going to get analysts take next. And it's been a pretty good year for U.S. markets. The S&P 500 up 15%. That's great. But it's actually nothing compared to what's happening across the globe. Spain, Mexico, China with much bigger gains. So can the global markets continue to rally? We're going to get into that one. Overtime comes back in two.

Welcome back. The president announcing a deal today to cut prices on some GLP-1 drugs used to treat diabetes and weight loss. Nova Nordisk, Eli Lilly, will sell their drugs on Medicare and Medicaid at a lower rate and offer the treatments to consumers at a different. discount on Trump RX. Starting doses of the current injections like Wigovi and Zepbound will be $350 a month, with White House, the White House saying the prices will trend down in the next two months. The stock's ending the day mixed with Novo trading lower and Eli Lilly moving to the

upside up a little more than 1%. Now Tesla's shareholder meeting kicking off at the top of the hour, Elon Musk's pay package. The big issue on the docket are Phil Leboe knows what's going on there, Is it officially passed? They haven't announced it yet, John. I would imagine we're going to get here at any second. Chairwoman Robin Denholm has just begun addressing all of the shareholders who were there at the Gigafactory in Austin, Texas. And let's remind everybody what this vote is, and the primary vote, which is about Elon Musk's shareholder, or his compensation package, it has the potential to be worth $878 billion. That's if Elon Musk hits all of the targets that are laid out for him over the next 10 years.

Some of these targets, like delivering 20 million Teslas, most people believe those are fairly easy to hit. Some of them, like hitting a market capitalization of $8.5 trillion, well, that's far more ambitious. And then there are some others in there as well, deploying one million robotaxies, one million humanoid robots. By the way, there are a couple of those humanoid robots that are to the side. of the stage at the annual meeting that has just started. I'd be curious to see whether or not they walk out with Elon or walk up next to Elon. We've known for some time that this is front and center in terms of what Elon Musk has said is the future for Tesla. It is robots. It is autonomous. It is artificial intelligence. If you're thinking that the future of Tesla is the

traditional car business, you're wrong. It's using all of those future. technologies with the car to advance the business. That's Elon Musk's vision for the future. So, again, we are waiting for the results of that vote. A couple other votes in there as well, guys. Whether or not shareholders want the company to be politically neutral, and also whether or not shareholders approve Tesla making an investment into XAI. I think that's probably going to pass as well.

We'll send it back to you, let you know as soon as we get the results. All right, Philibault. Thank you. Maybe those robots have suitcases full of shares. Elon. Well, Draft King's earnings are out, posting a loss of 52 cents a share, bigger loss and expected. Revenue is also coming up short of the estimate, also guiding below the current forecast for full year revenue. Earlier today, the company signed a deal with Disney for use of the ESPN bet brand. Well, turning back to Tesla, what does this vote mean for the stock?

And are these goals achievable for Musk? Well, let's bring in William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer. He has a market perform rating on the stock, and Jed, it's great to have you here. Thank you. Your expectations for this shareholder meeting and what this pay package could mean for not only Musk, but for investors, because they're pretty lofty goals, to say the least. Yeah, I mean, I think just to hit the elephant right away, I think if this pay package doesn't work, it is going to be very negative for the shares. And the reason being is, you know, as Phil was talking about, most of the value has shifted from the auto and the energy business, kind of the physical core of Tesla shares, over to autonomy. So that's Robotaxi, Humanoi robots. And so Elon has made it very clear that in order for him to stay and kind of build autonomy, that he wants to have control, voting control, or he's not interested.

And so I think from that perspective, it's critical. You just do the math here, and this vote needs to pass. If it doesn't pass, that's going to be a real negative from a shareholder perspective. Yeah, and of course, his last pay package, which was also tied to some pretty eye-popping incentives, is still, if I recall correctly, tied up in the court system right now, too. So given the future for Tesla and what that involves and the role of AI, how necessary is it going to be or crucial is it going to be to see an investment into XAI made here or approved here today? too? Well, Tesla isn't actually the one that set that up. That's a shareholder that put that on the

docket. But I think going back to that earlier point, how are you going to, how is Elon going to grow this business by $7.5 trillion or $7 trillion of market cap? And I think that has to open the door in terms of the potential for inorganic growth, too. So to me, that's kind of the signal that we would be looking for in terms of the passage of that. And then I would also come back and say, listen, if any CEO is going to grow the market cap by seven times, I mean, they are delivering a tremendous amount of value that's going to be more beneficial to the shareholders than themselves. In this case, you know, it is still hard to swallow the total amount of that pay package. But when you look at it from that perspective, I think it's easier to understand.

Well, but let's look at it from that perspective, because my feeling was, hey, the first time they put that pay package together and Tesla had been relatively small and it seemed like, boy, how could such targets ever be hit? I mean, if that was the agreement, the stock went up, pay him the money, right? This time, though, I wonder, Jensen Wong's not doing this. Tim Cook isn't doing this. Jensen Wong's a founder. He, you know, gave away a portion of Nvidia on the way up because of the deals. did. He's doing quite well, mind you. But is this really the way that shareholders should want the largest companies that affect not just the economy but foreign policy increasingly to be run

and governed? I mean, I think if you're looking at it purely from a mathematical perspective in terms of delivering value, then the answer is yes. If the question is, is any one person worth that amount of money? I think the answer is probably no. I think that when we look at the absolute dollar amount, though, I think that might be the wrong way to look at it because Elon tried, and I think Robin may have been on your show even talking about, we had this conversation with her directly, and I think she's presenting at the shareholder meeting right now, that really what Elon wanted was the supermajority voting, but they couldn't do that, you know, post-creation or formation of the company. So that's how we ended up in this situation

with this enormous pay package. Will it set a precedent? Maybe. I mean, I think there are going to be other shareholders that look at or, you know, that look at where you have a key man or woman within a business in terms of the value and the potential value creation, and they're going to look at how do we retain them. So we might be seeing, you know, a precedent that is set that would change things. All right. Jed Dorsheimer, thank you.

Thank you. In the meantime, J-Frog earnings are out, and they are jumping. Shares are, pun intended, quite a bit. 26, 27%. Earnings per share coming in, 22 cents adjusted versus estimates of 16. Revenue also coming in well above expectations. 137 million versus 128 million expected. The company giving fourth quarter guidance for both EPS and revenue.

That's well ahead of estimates. EPS guidance. of 18 to 20 cents a share versus estimates of 16 cents. We're going to hear a little bit from Shlomi Ben Haim, founder and CEO, a little bit later on in the show about what drove this. Part of it is the cybersecurity challenges that are happening elsewhere in the market, and JFrog has a role in securing some of that software. Well, a big drop for the NASDAQ today,

but consumer discretionary performing even worse than tech. And it's not one specific area. energy drinks, makeup, eyeglass, and used cars. Look at those declines following results, double digits all the way down. More on the consumer coming up. Well, on the shutdown pain, now extending to the airports, even more aggressively, the FAA announcing flight reductions, a closer look at the impact of these cuts. Coming up on overtime.

Welcome back to Overtimes. The shutdown drags on. The FAA announcing it will cut as many as 4,000 flights a day. For more on which cities will be affected, let's bring back Philabo. Hi, Phil. Hey, Morgan. You know, you mentioned 4,000 flights a day. Realistically, it's probably going to be closer to about $1,800 when it's all said and done. But the bottom line is this. This is going to be a gradual ramp up. So here's what you can expect to see at airports around the country starting tomorrow. About 4% of the flights. into the 40 largest airports will be taken off the book starting tomorrow. So for some airlines, that's 175 flights, 200 flights, depends. And these are primarily going to be from smaller regional airports into larger airports. International flights are exempt. And here are the 40 largest airports that are impacted here.

Remember, the goal of the DOT here is to bring down the volume of aircraft going into large airports because you don't have the staffing guarantees that you would. would expect if you had a fully-functioning or fully staffed and paying a government-paychecks because the air traffic controllers are without pay. You never know when there might be a staffing issue. So let's go through the airlines right now. United saying that it's probably going to cut a little under 200 flights starting tomorrow, and it may be a little bit less on Saturday, and then it'll probably gradually ramp up. Similar story from Delta. They think the flight cuts are going to be under about 175. American Airlines, we don't have the exact number at this point.

but it'll be a similar measure as they try to figure out, first of all, how can they do this with the least disruption possible? Speaking of American Airlines, I will be with CEO Robert Isam tomorrow morning in the American Airlines Operations Center. As they start to implement these cuts, guys, the bottom line is this. The DOT has said, we want less traffic going into the busiest airports. So all of the airlines, all of them, are going to have to dial back on the number of aircraft going in on a regular their basis. All right. Looking forward to that. Phil, thank you. Time now for a CNBC News update with Sima Modi. Sima. John, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to fully fund food aid benefits for some 42 million Americans by tomorrow. The ruling blocks the government's plan to

only provide reduced benefits during the government shutdown. The administration previously said recipients would get about 65% of their regular assistance for the month. The Supreme Court allowing the Trump administration to enforce a policy that prohibits people from choosing passport sex markers that align with their gender identity, the decision allows a policy to take effect while a lawsuit over it plays out. The State Department changed passport rules in January following an executive order that declared the U.S. would only recognize two sexes based on birth certificates and biological classification. And a jury found the D.C. resident who chucked a subway sandwich at a federal officer in August not guilty today or of

misdemeanor assault. Prosecutors previously failed to get a grand jury to indict 37-year-old Sean Dunn on a felony charge. Dunn was fired by the Justice Department after his arrest. John and Morgan. Thank you. Well, coming up, another check on stocks making some of the biggest moves in overtime. We'll be right back. day for stocks. Tech hit the hardest. The NASDAQ down nearly 2%, a drop of more than 1% for the S&P 500. From August 1st until October 10th, the S&P 500 had zero days with a 1% drop. Now it has had three in the past six sessions, so we are seeing some volatility pick up. Now to some of the big earnings, though, we've gotten here at the top of the hour. Let's start

with the travel names. A big jump for Expedia. That's after a beat and positive comments on several fronts, including booked room nights. You see those shares are up about 11.5%. Airbnb saying gross bookings and nights and experiences booked both beat estimates. Those shares are also up about 4.5% win resorts also higher. It missed on earnings, but it beat on revenue. Said things are looking good in both Macau and Las Vegas. Those shares are responding positively. And a split decision for FinTech. It's a mixed picture, as we have been seeing in general there, though. A firm moving nicely higher after beating on earnings and revenue. Block, though, falling more than 10, well, just under 10%.

It's top and bottom lines, both coming in short of estimates. Also, don't miss a first on CNBC interview tomorrow morning with a firm CEO Max Levchin. That's tomorrow at 9.15 a.m. Eastern on Squawk on the street. Well, now, U.S. markets hitting a record highs this year, but it's still underperforming the emerging market index by a lot. According to Oppenheimer, around the world, we've got the largest. percentage of stock indices at all-time highs in 26 years. Some of those indices are the Niki, Korea's Kaspi, the stock 600, Germany, Dax, Brazil's

Bovespa, and Egypt's EGX30. So should you diversify outside the U.S. going into the new year, or is it too late? Let's bring in Alistair, Pinder, HSBC, head of emerging markets and global equity strategist. Alster, it was a long period of not much going on for international markets investors all about like domestic, domestic, domestic. We have people saying that, but if you were in some of these indices already, you're having a great year, not sweating the volatility so much. But are these things now moving in lockstep with the U.S.? I'm looking at Korea? You've got S.K. Hynix, Samsung, sort of getting into this AI stuff. Can you use that to diversify your portfolio? or is this sort of a global enthusiasm?

Well, I think you touched, you know, really the key issue on the head here, which is at least for emerging markets. I would say the big thesis to go into this area is that it essentially is an AI play but at a huge discount and doesn't have the same kind of ownership and the crowding like you see in some of these AI stocks in the U.S. So this is particularly Asia. So you can think about China, Korea, as you mentioned, Taiwan. Essentially, to me, this is AI stocks at a cheap discount.

And guess what? They haven't annulled this CAPEX, like the MAG-7. So we're not even that worried about the return on investment when it comes to the AI story. So I think that's a great theme in EM. And, of course, the other big thing that's been really supportive this year for international equity markets is the dollar. The dollar has been strengthening a little bit, but I think fundamentally, the dollar is still going to weaken going into next year. And that, to me, again, supports the case for emerging market equities and even going into areas like Europe as well. Well, we at CNBC, the on-air folks, can't invest in individual stock.

So I've tended to look through a lot of mutual funds and indices to say, okay, what's really in these things? And a lot of them, it's a lot of utilities, banks, not necessarily the stuff that would benefit hugely from AI. So where should investors particularly look when they're thinking about that AI theme that you're talking about connected to some of these international indices? So if you take EM, here's a great step for you. What we call new economy sectors, which is things like tech, semis, EVs, and. That only used to account for 15% of the EM index. Now it's nearly 40. So actually what you've seen in EM is a complete shift.

And it's EM Asia in particular, which fits that theme. In Europe, Germany, to me, stands out as the clear winner of some of the international, you know, kind of rotation. Again, because they're doing this heavy infrastructure spending, which is going into next year, I just don't think that's priced. Actually, if you look at flows out of Germany, they've been coming out, you look at valuations, they've derated a little bit. I think you've got a lot of growth upside going into Germany. next year. You just touched on exactly where I was going. And that is if you look at some of the best performing markets this year, it's also the markets where you've seen some sort of stimulus, whether it's monetary or whether it's fiscal. Case in point, Mexico, they just cut

rates again today. Totally. So I mean, so I've mentioned a lot when EM Asia, the story for Emia and Latam, as you mentioned, Mexico in Brazil, is that they've got interest rates which are extremely elevated above 7% in Mexico, 15% in Brazil, around 10% bond yields in South Africa. they have the room to get cut, and that should support valuations. That, for me, is a really important story, again, not properly priced, and that drives a valuation re-rating. It might not be the most exciting earnings story, but it's this valuationary rating in Latam anemia, which I think is going to be key going into next year.

Are trade policies and tariffs factoring into some of these global market moves that we're seeing, or are we seeing these bull markets take root despite that? I think, so weirdly, I think tariffs have been a good thing for international markets. Because you talk about the stimulus, why has China done stimulus? Why has Germany done stimulus? It's actually to offset the tariffs here. And now what we're seeing is that the tariff uncertainty is starting to come down. Actually, a lot of the concerns that we had about tariffs impacting exports, maybe it's not

as big as what we want to store. And then we get in trade deals. I mean, Trump's just been on his tour of Asia, we've got a bunch of trade deals. You talk about Mexico. we could get a USMCA deal next year. All of these things, again, very positive catalysts for these international markets. All right. Alastair Pinder, thanks for joining us here.

Thank you so much. Great to have you. Coming up, Rockwell Automation shares hitting an all-time high after better than expected results. We're going to talk to the CEO about what's driving the optimism. That's next. Welcome back. Rockwell Automation hitting an all-time high after better than expected sales growth for fiscal 2026. Earnings and revenue also came in higher than expectations.

Rockwell also saying it is dissolving its joint venture with SLB. Joining us now exclusively is Rockwell Automation Chairman and CEO Blake Moret. Blake, it's great to have you back on the program. Welcome. Great to be here. You know, Wall Street really seeming to hone in on your guidance for 2026, what does it signal both about the company and about the broader state of manufacturing? Well, as a U.S. company, there's obviously a lot of excitement about manufacturing in the U.S. And we're the leader in automation and digital transformation. So I think that's driving a lot of the excitement, as well as specific to Rockwell,

the ability to put together expanding margins with a return to full year, top-line growth. Are you starting to see this show up in terms of orders and future business for Rockwell, this idea of re-industrialization, reshoring, and CAPEX actually finally being deployed after a lot of uncertainty earlier this year? So we're seeing growth in our, particularly our product businesses. It's a little bit more focused on brownfields, so expansions and modernizations of existing facilities. I think trade uncertainty is still suppressing some of the larger CAPEX spend. We see some of it, but it's not coming out from all industries. And I think a little bit more more stability in markets, especially around trade, will help unlock that.

When we talk about factories of the future and automation and the promise of AI, I mean, you're on the forefront of this. Are we at an inflection point with the technology and the capabilities? I think we are. You know, we see it in our own internal operations as we help our employees be more efficient with the tools, whether it's coding or whether it's in back office functions. But also for customers, I see the primary opportunity to simplify the whole business of automation, whether it's simulation of processes or its scheduling or maintenance, AI is already having an effect. You know, it's interesting because the Tesla shareholder meeting is going on right now, too, and there's a lot of focus on the future of that company and the role that robotics and things like humanoid robots are going to play at that company. How are you thinking about the potential for robotics? a Tesla as a future competitor or do you see this marketplace evolving? I see it evolving. We got

into mobile robots a couple of years ago to complement the fixed automation that we're well known for. And the idea, again, is to simplify on the factory floor the mobility, the mobile robots interacting with the line process control all in a single cohesive system. I think, you know, human may have a role in some applications, but I see it as a little bit of overkill for a lot of the applications in factories today. Looking across your end users, where are you seeing the most growth

or the most strength as we looked at 2026? So certainly in the area of e-commerce and warehouse automation, we're seeing probably the strongest year-over-year growth. We did see in the fourth quarter automobile manufacturing, and that's both from some new projects, new projects, but also for the very large installed base that we service, pharmaceuticals,

and certainly there have been some high-profile announcements of U.S. manufacturing plants, but we're also supplying equipment and software to those companies around the world, and then food and beverage, which is our single largest served industry. Well, Blake Morrette of Rockwell Automation, it's great to have you on. Thank you. Thank you. Fares finishing up about two and a half, almost 3% today. Yeah.

Well, coming up with the lack of a government jobs report tomorrow, we're going to look at some alternative data to give us a picture of the market. We're going to break down what LinkedIn is seeing in the jobs market when overtime returns. Welcome back to overtime. The votes are in on Elon Musk's pay package at Tesla. Phil, what happened? 75% approved it, John. So Elon Musk will remain a CEO.

of Tesla. He threatened to leave if he didn't get this pay package approved by the shareholders. 75% voted for it. And now Elon Musk is about to talk at the Tesla's shareholder meeting. We know what his message is going to be. The future is all about autonomous, robotics, and artificial intelligence. By the way, on the question of whether or not Tesla should invest in XAI, that was an advisory vote, there was more votes for it than against it. but a number of abstentions. So the company says they will continue to study that before making a decision. And there, as you take a look at the shareholder meeting, not a surprise.

You knew that you would see the humanoid robots take some kind of a star turn here because that is the future for Tesla. And Elon Musk now talking with shareholders at the Gigafactory in Austin. Again, guys, his pay package has been approved by 75% of the Tesla shareholders who voted. Overwhelming margin there. The robots are dancing. which maybe represents how Elon feels inside. Phil, thank you.

And now, in the absence of tomorrow's jobs data, we're looking at other data to give us a glimpse into the economy. LinkedIn is out with its monthly jobs report, showing a 6% year-over-year drop in hiring in October, down more than 24% from pre-pandemic. For more on the numbers, let's bring in LinkedIn's Head of Economics for the Americas, Corey Kentanga.

Corey, we got this Challenger report earlier pointing to the number of layoffs. That combined with what you're seeing suggests to me a labor market that's perhaps showing some weakness that the markets overall are not? Well, the jobs report that we're seeing right now on LinkedIn is October, that's a lot like September. There wasn't really an October surprise. We saw that hiring and quits remained about the same compared to what we saw in September. The number of jobs available relative to the number of job seekers on LinkedIn, that's actually held pretty still. as well. So the job market is running slow, as you mentioned, 24% below the pandemic for the LinkedIn hiring rate. But overall, we are still seeing some stability in the job market, just coming from the fact that things haven't changed that much this year.

Now, LinkedIn skews white collar, but I imagine you also have a good look at how many people are newly open to work, looking for work, and how newer entrance into the job market. I'm thinking about college graduates are doing. What signal is that sending you? versus historical? So college graduates aren't doing as bad as you might think. If you have a bachelor's degree and you're in an entry-level role, you're tracking with the overall labor market. The folks who are not doing well are those people who have advanced degrees, so the MBAs, the JDs. If you have an advanced degree, you're performing much worse than the overall job market.

What? Why? Yes. Well, think about the industries that they go into. technology, media, legal, accounting, consulting, financial services, and then you think about the industries that have slowed down the most since interest rates started going up. It is those three. They've been disproportionately impacted by the labor market slowdown. That seems unfair because those are the folks with the most debt as well. Cori Contanga, thank you. Important color that we

need and data that we need in the absence of that government data. Cori Contanga from LinkedIn. Morgan, that just seems unfair. Because the idea is the more education you get, the easier it is to get a job in higher paying, but I guess not always. Yeah, and before we had a government shutdown, you were seeing some of that translate in the government data as well,

especially with white-collar, you know, college grads, into white-collar positions. So perhaps not surprisingly, you've got to think that maybe a disruption to education is potentially on the horizon as well. But we'll see. University of Michigan consumer sentiment. We get that tomorrow.

More Fed speak. That does it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts now.