Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Nasdaq Closes Above 19k As Risk Appetite Returns 5/13/25

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

Stocks edge higher as the S&P 500 gains a high-profile new member: Coinbase. Phil Camporeale of J.P. Morgan breaks down the market action, while Supermicro's AI positioning draws fresh Wall Street attention—Raymond James’ Simon Leopold explains his bullish call. CyberArk CEO Matt Cohen joins to discuss earnings, enterprise IT spend and security sector consolidation while Saira Malik of Nuveen shares where she’s seeing new opportunity in equities and fixed income.   Our Bertha Coombs tracks UnitedHealth’s rough day, Eamon Javers reports on the president’s visit to Saudi Arabia alongside high-profile American CEOs. Plus, Michael Santoli’s dashboard signals a return of risk-on sentiment and what it means for Coinbase to be added to the S&P 500 and Robert Frank spots cracks in the high-end art market. 

Well that's the end of regulation Vanguard ringing the closing bell the New York Stock Exchange delegation from the SEB Baltic Conference doing the honors at the Nasdaq we've got stocks finishing mixed today with the Dow down looks like six tenths of percent maybe 269 points as we settle out here dragged lower by United Health the Nasdaq though, finishing higher, 1.6% higher, and the S&P also higher. It looks like maybe around 58, 86 as we settle there too. The S&P is actually going positive for the year. Tech, once again, the leader.

CHiPs leading that charge with the ETF, the SMH, now in the green for the year as well. Nvidia, the standout, posting its best day since April. It's back above a $3 trillion market cap. The defense sector hitting an all time high in earlier trading too on the back of a Saudi Arabia defense deal. The ETF on pace for the six straight weekly gain.

But as we just mentioned, United Health collapsing, shaving 400 points off the Dow as its CEO steps down, the company pulls 2025 guidance. We're gonna have more on that straight ahead. Also Disney kicks off its up front this hour the stock higher for a six straight day and at the highest level since March. Yeah welcome to Closing Bell Overtime where winners stay late. I'm John Fort alongside Morgan Brennan ahead CyberArk reporting results this morning a beat on earnings and revenue but the stock is down a couple percent after a healthy run the last three weeks And analysts at Mizzou host positive though impressed with the consistent execution

We're gonna talk to CEO Matt Cohen and shares of super micro up 16 percent today. We'll talk to an analyst who's bullish on the stock as a near-term play in AI Now let's take stock of another update on Wall Street with the S&P and NASDAQ 100 back into positive territory for the year. The Dow has mentioned only lower because United Health tanked 18%. On the S&P, today's gains put it up 22% from its April 7th low.

So where do we go next? Well joining us now, the Telus, JP Morgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager, Phil Camparelli. Phil, good to see you. So I've never seen a time, can't recall a time, when a president's economic whims held such sway over U.S. stocks, but I actually wanna start talking

about fixed income and international relative to old big tech market leaders. What does this dynamic we're seeing right now tell us about where we should go? Yeah, I think the dynamic, John, it's good to be with you and Morgan again, is that you can't lose US exceptionalism in 100 days. And I think we're starting to see a clawback

of some of the stuff that has really worked. So what were the two things that worried investors the most this year? First was Federal Reserve independence. We kinda got clarity on that at the end of April. You know, President Trump has no intention of firing Jerome Powell. We think he lasts until May of 2026. But the elephant in the room was trade relations with China. So let's go down that a little bit. I think what we got over the weekend was a really good signal. A, yes, they're

dropping tariffs. We know that. But they don't want to decouple from each other. That's first. And then when you read through that, I think what the swing factor is, you don't have to price it a recession anymore. So our recession probabilities that were basically a coin flip a month ago are moving down very, very quickly. And we're somewhere right now between 30 and 35%. And a lot of Wall Street strategists are there. So what does that do? That then illuminates some of the stuff that US exceptionalism kind of deteriorated

earlier this year, particularly mega cap tech. I can't stress that enough. Mega cap tech, so MAG-6 is trading at its cheapest valuation to the 494 since 2017. It's still four handles below the highest kind of PE that we saw earlier this year, where the 494 are basically at the highest PE.

So if you wanna be really surgical about this, I think the gross names, the MegaCap Tech, particularly the Mag-6, still offer some value, John, even with the rally that we've seen. Okay, I hear all that, and that sounds good, but at the same time, we've got AppLovin back up, as we were just showing on the board. Palantir also doing quite well today.

Bitcoin is at 104K, again, while the 10-year, the 10-year yield, kissing, flirting with, 4.5%, again today, can risk assets continue to do so well with the 10 year right up against 4.5? Yeah, so there's nothing controversial about 4.5%, John, unless you're investing in some of the sectors that need rate cuts, that desire rate cuts. And those are things like small cap or mid cap.

And what we've seen from those MagSix companies, particularly in 2023, when they represented three quarters of the return of the S&P that was up 25% that year, the tenure note was at four and a half or 5%. So that's just another notch in some of the quality that you're getting from those companies is the ability to deal with these levels of rates.

Now John, if rates are going up, A, because of rumors of Federal Reserve independence going away, or B, because inflation is rising, that's a different story. But John, what we're seeing is a normalization, a pushing out of the rate cuts that we don't need anymore because the labor market looks resilient, with the equity market doing well. And John, that's okay, and those large cap companies, I think, can fare much, much better with a 4.5% 10-year note,

than some of the other parts in the market that may need that. Do you think rate cuts actually do push out here? I mean, we had a CPI print today that was not as bad as feared, and I realize we'll get PPI later in the week and maybe there's some debate to be had about whether April was really ahead

of possible tariff impacts. But if inflation continues to not come in as hot as expected, especially as we do start to get more of these trade deals, and I realize there's the fiscal piece of this too, doesn't the Fed have more room to cut? Yeah, Maureen, that's a great question. So it's kind of like, be careful what you wish for as far as I'm concerned with the

Federal Reserve. If they're cutting rates because the unemployment rate is going up, that's multiple handles lower in the S&P. You asked about inflation though. And listen, we're still waiting for the soft data to match the hard data. We're still holding our breath for that. And CPI, as you mentioned, came out this morning, lowest level since 2021. I just don't believe there's any urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, particularly

ahead of the narrative shifting to fiscal policy. And they have to see what that is, as well as the impact on tariffs over the next few months. So, Morgan, I think maybe you get one, maybe two towards the end of the year. But our asset allocation is not hoping for a rate cut. We're totally fine with the Federal Reserve on the sidelines. They moved lower by 100 basis points in the fourth quarter. That seems like forever ago. But they've already adjusted the federal moved lower by 100 basis points in the fourth quarter. That seems like forever ago,

but they've already adjusted the federal funds rate by 100 basis points. And in this new regime, I just don't think rates are that restrictive right now based on what we've seen as far as GDP growth rates in the past at these levels of rates. So we're not hoping or praying for a rate cut here. We're fine with the federal reserve

staying on the sidelines. Okay, Bill with the federal reserve staying on the side. Okay. Bill Campriali, thanks for joining us. And of course, that reconciliation package is going to be in focus this week and beyond in terms of that fiscal picture. Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Alex Karp, among the big names attending the U.S.-Saudi investment forum in Riyadh today. President Trump was also there, announcing a $600 billion Saudi investment in the U.S.

Eamon Javers is joining us now with more. And Eamon, there was a lot to chew through here today. Yeah, there was a lot, Morgan, that's right. It's been a day of pomp and circumstance and deal-making in Riyadh today as President Trump's first official foreign visit of his second term gets underway. The American president's arrival on Air Force One was escorted by Saudi F-15 fighter jets

and his motorcade was flanked by Arabian horsemen as he made his way to his hotel and to a Saudi investment forum that featured, as you say, a who's who roster of American tech and finance CEOs, including Elon Musk of Tesla, Jensen Wong of NVIDIA, Steven Schwartzman of Blackstone, Larry Fink of BlackRock, Sam Altman of OpenAI, and many, many more. The White House announced a batch of deals between the two countries, which it said totaled $600 billion in economic activity, although not all that economic activity inside the United States, including Saudi Arabian Data Vault planning to invest $20 billion in AI

data centers and energy infrastructure in the United States. GE Vernova exports of gas turbines and energy solutions totaling $14.2 billion. And Boeing selling $4.8 billion worth of 737-8 passenger aircraft to Saudi company Avi Lease. And Bloomberg reports that the U.S. is considering allowing the United Arab Emirates to purchase more than one million advanced Nvidia chips in a deal the news service said is still being negotiated. The trip continues tomorrow when we expect the president to attend the Gulf Cooperation Council Leaders Meeting in Saudi Arabia and then head off to Qatar for diplomatic events

and a state dinner. Morgan, back over to you. All right, Eamon Jabbers. Thank you. I think something elseamon Jabbers, thank you. I think something else in focus for Boeing here is the fact that we are getting reports, John, that China's accepting delivery on Boeing planes on the heels of this tariff truce,

this trade truce between the US and China as well. What is interesting though is just going back to the $142 billion defense package piece of this between Saudi and US.S. today, is a lot of the defense contractors, the pure play defense primes, actually traded lower today despite this news. Saudi Arabia, already the largest buyer of U.S. weapons systems. What's not necessarily clear here is what's new, what's already in the works here, but certainly everybody who's involved in defense contracting here in the U.S.

stands to gain from this deal as we get more details, and also quite a number of the defense CEOs themselves are in Saudi Arabia for this. All right, hope it's the truth. Maybe just a temporary ceasefire, as we'll see. The shares of United Health getting crushed today, hitting the lowest level since 2021 after announcing CEO Andrew Witte is stepping down.

The stock taking about 400 points off the Dow, dragging the rest of the group down with it. Let's bring in Bertha Coombs now for more on what's been a very difficult time for this company. Bertha. It definitely has, particularly the last six months. United Health suspending guidance, along with that move today amid an abrupt leadership shakeup,

shares down 50% from an all-time high just six months ago The spending guidance, along with that move today amid an abrupt leadership shakeup, shares down 50% from an all-time high just six months ago, with CEO Andrew Witte stepping down after a period that saw the company's first quarter earnings miss expectations of rare occurrence, driven by poor performance in Medicare months after the tragic killing of health insurance chief Brian Thompson. Chairman Stephen Hemsley, again taking the reins as CEO, between 2006 and 2017, he transformed UnitedHealth, building its Optum division through key acquisitions in pharmacy benefits, specialty pharmacy, physician practices, and surgical centers. This morning, Hemsley apologized to investors for performance setbacks, he said,

from both external and internal challenges and promised to get things back on track, starting with getting a handle on high medical costs, which executives say they're now seeing beyond Medicare plans. And also getting their premium bids right for 2026 in Medicare. They're d during earnings season, w

seem to have a better pri it came to pricing for th But today they're all und all face that june 2nd de bids. What are the mechan than expected costs? We k out there about out there about what's going to happen with Medicaid, but as things are expanding beyond Medicare and into other areas, what does that mean? People just getting more expensive procedures, staying inpatient longer?

What they were actually seeing is more outpatient. Part of what happened in Medicare is that because of a lot of regulatory changes in terms of reimbursement, you saw a number of players move out of markets because they weren't going to be able to make it. All of a sudden UnitedHealth inherited some of those. They didn't know those patients, so a lot of them were sicker than they thought. They're utilizing more outpatient care. They might also be getting outpatient surgery.

They're also starting to see that, they said, over the last few weeks when it comes to commercial plans as well. So a lot of folks are getting in there. It's good if they're getting in to get checked and get things, particularly with chronic conditions, in check, but it means that they're utilizing a lot more than they had planned when they bid for premiums.

Okay, Bertha Coombs, thank you for bringing us the latest on UnitedHealth. We've got breaking news to bring you as well, and this is on the IPO market. Leslie Picker has the details for us. Hi, Leslie. Hey, Morgan, that window seems to be opening a little bit wider with Chime filing its S1 today.

That was one that had filed confidentially toward the end of last year, was in kind of that cohort of prospective IPOs that put things on pause as the markets tumbled. And now, given just the upswing we have seen in the last few weeks, we are seeing some more of these make progress on their debut. So, Chimes S1, Morgan Stanley is leading this, along with Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. They are intending to list with three classes of stock. We can assume that a large portion of that will be held, although that part is blank in this S1 by the co-founder and CEO. It implies that in the filing here.

They plan to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol CHYM. I'm just scrolling down to a few pages to get a sense of their financials here, which has shown significant growth on page five here. You see $1.7 billion for 2024 in terms of revenue, which was higher than its pre-deceive, 2023 and 2022. We're also seeing a trend toward profitability in the first three months of the year and adjusted EBITDA, which is also positive here.

So that's something that's really important in this market in particular, where losses are not as tolerated maybe as they were in previous losses here. So going to continue to dig through this, but those are just some highlights as we look ahead to this deal. Privately, its valuation has kind of been all over the place. It was as high as 25 billion back in 2021. Since then, it's come down to about a fraction of those levels.

So we'll see kind of where things wind up with the IPO, but reports have indicated it'll be around $10 billion for this deal. Back to you Morgan. Okay some IPO activity perking up here. Yeah. I'm the latest. Leslie Picker, thank you. Coming up we'll talk to the CEO of CyberArk after the company's earnings. The stock flat today but analysts are bullish on the quarter. Is the market missing something? And one of the hottest stocks in the market soaring to

another new high today. More on Palantir's record run coming up. Overtime's back in two. Welcome back to Overtime. An amazing run for Palantir continuing today. The stock hitting an all time high as Alex Karp was among the CEOs visiting Saudi Arabia. the stock's up more than 6X just in the past year.

Bank of America upping its price target on the stock today saying the company continues to demonstrate that not all AI offerings are created equal. Yesterday on this program, Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers telling us Palantir has become a favorite of retail investors passing even Nvidia in popularity. It's pretty incredible.

Two years ago, this was an $8 stock. It's minted a lot of millionaires and billionaires, both in the company and in the investment community. Meantime, cloud security provider CyberArk, despite a strong quarter ending the day flat, the company beating estimates on the top and bottom lines, providing Q2 guidance that was mostly above expectations. This comes as CyberArk is shifting its business model

to a subscription basis. Joining us now in a CNBC exclusive is CyberArk CEO, Matt Cohen. Matt, it's great to have you back on the show. Let's start right there. The fact that you came in with better than expected results, even as you're shifting that business model and how you report against it, the better

than expected guidance. What does it say about the company and perhaps about the demand for cybersecurity writ large despite this macroeconomic uncertainty we've been talking about? I think when we look out and we talk with our customers, we see this heightened threat environment that's forcing organizations to fundamentally alter their cybersecurity strategies and lean in to a particular part of cybersecurity that's called identity security. That's really where CyberArk plays. It's the ability to be able to make sure that human and machine identities have the right level of controls in place to actually

secure the most privileged, most important information and systems. We see with our customers today that identity security is really the imperative, the focus point of large-scale cybersecurity programs. It keeps us with a strong demand and a strong, durable growth. We grew revenue in AR by more than 30 percent. Once again, we've got more than 20 percent free cash flow margins. And ultimately, it's helping to drive a long-term vision of growth for CyberArg.

Yeah. And of course, identity security has been a big bet for you. Two acquisitions to help build out those offerings as well. When we talk about non-human versus human, and certain agentic AI has been getting a lot of attention in this, but what are you seeing in terms of those security threats and how you need to counter them for your customers, whether it is human or non-human? Across the board, whether it's human or non-human or as you mentioned, the kind

of rising type of identities around AI. What we see is the need to be able to offer dynamic privilege controls. And what that really means is to be able to elevate the level of controls that any identity has on it based upon risk, based upon context, and based upon the types of targets that it's accessing. So you or I might look like a normal workforce user

from day to day, but if we access certain systems with certain elevated entitlements or privileges, we need an extra layer of security placed on to protect our access when we're going towards those targets. The same thing applies on the machine side or the non-human side, and that becomes the underpinning, if you will, of the future of identity security. Matt, first question you got on the call-human side, and that becomes the underpinning, if you will, of the future of identity security. Matt, first question you got on the call, I believe,

was about multi-product sales, and there's this drive out there, I've been hearing about an enterprise software to consolidate vendors. There's so much credit given to CrowdStrike, to Zscaler, like this platform approach to cybersecurity. I wonder what your continuing strategy is to make sure that as that consolidation happens,

you're one that benefits. It's a really fascinating point there because what we see is CISOs, the chief security officers, overwhelmed by the sheer number of cybersecurity tools. You know, at a typical enterprise, they can have 50, 100, 150 individual cybersecurity tools that they're trying to manage. This idea of consolidation or platformization is really about driving value across the various

identities, but also the idea of lessening the burden on the CISOs and the security teams that are increasingly overwhelmed. What we see and what we have these conversations with our executive suites and our customers is that they want to consolidate down to a few platforms. There's not going to be one platform for everything in cybersecurity, but there is consolidation around endpoint, around cloud, around modern day firewalls, and around identity security. And for our space, we see that happening and driving a big piece of our results as customers

want to adopt more and more of our solutions, all sitting on an integrated, unified platform. Okay. Matt Cohen, CyberArk CEO. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. Well, stocks have been rebounding like the NBA playoffs recently, led by the NASDAQ and MAG-7, but we're also seeing a big return in those riskier high-momentum names. Well, look at these one-week numbers.

Robinhood up 30 percent, First Solar up 50. It's not just stocks either. Ether also up 50 percent in just a week. We're going to talk to Mike Santoli about the return of risk next. Welcome back to overtime. Take a look at shares of Tesla higher again. Now up more than 12% this week, lifting the market cap back above a trillion dollars.

It's just one of many of the most important and most important markets in the world. And we're gonna talk about that in a little bit. But before we get into that, we're gonna talk about the return of risk next. Welcome back to overtime. Take a look at shares of Tesla, higher again, now up more than 12% this week, lifting the market cap back above a trillion dollars. It's just one of many so-called momentum names that has gotten rolling again. This as a trade detente between the US and China

seems to be clearing the way for the return of risk. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now for a look at whether it can stick, Mike. Yeah, John, the pendulum has swung swung right extreme risk aversion five weeks ago Now you have a greater risk tolerance as as the market gets back into somewhat of a bull market mode This is the equal weighted consumer discretionary sector right here on a six month span. It's now finally Gone back ahead of consumer staples. So this is a good kind of macro risk on off indicator. Pretty much every uptrend in the overall market,

you need consumer discretionary to be among the leaders or at least to participate. So that box is getting checked off, although consumer discretionary is still below its highs. Another big dynamic in the early part of this year was the vast outperformance of non-US stocks. That actually is continuing, but now they're not going in opposite directions

and the gap is closing a little bit. So this is the all country world index, excluding the US. This is of course the S&P 500. So a little bit of a catch up move in the US stocks. And that's something that doesn't, by the way, have to be kind of zero sum. They can kind of go up in tandem

with alternating out performance. And then, of course, gold was maybe the one good diversifier in the heat of that correction. This is a five-year chart of gold, and this is the broad commodity index, commodity index exchange traded product. And gold did finally kind of catch up on a multi-year basis to overall commodities, but now maybe it's looking like it's got a little bit of a pullback in it and oil has bounced again. Of course, oil, the biggest component of the broad commodity index. So that's usually, again, a macro risk on indicator if all other commodities start to

outperform gold, John. At the same time, Bitcoin is up close to all timetime highs getting close to that 105-106 level it does it have to prove anything and does that have an impact on risk and momentum? I think it's in sync with what we're seeing in fact the arguably it kind of led the Nasdaq which it's most correlated to in this last little run so I think it's essentially it's a leveraged risk asset it's working way. Obviously the thing to look out for is when things get you know kind of overdone in that respect and you start to get very frothy. Find it interesting that all these companies are kind of

hitting the IPO window or at least trying to as soon as the market stabilized. So that might also feed into a little more of the kind of public investor excitement that would get us back into, you know, the kind of giddy times again, if this continues. Okay. Mike Santoli, we'll see a little bit later this hour. Thank you. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News Update with Julia Borstin. Hi, Julia.

Hi, Morgan. A federal judge is allowing the IRS to share personal tax information with the DHS for immigration enforcement purposes. The judge today ruled against several immigration advocate groups, saying while he agreed that requesting and receiving information for this purpose would cause injury, the organizations did not show that it was imminent. An administrative law judge backed a request by State Farm to increase homeowner rates

in California by 17 percent. In a decision released today, the judge said the Golden State's largest insurer was financially weak before the wildfires and the emergency rate hike will stabilize the company while protecting policyholders. The state's insurance commissioner has the final say on the matter. And in historic decision, baseball commissioner Rob Manfred announced this afternoon that he is removing Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson, and other deceased players from the permanently ineligible list.

Moving forward, bans will end with the death of the individual. This decision now clears a path for both Rose and Jackson who are kicked out of the game for gambling to be voted on for Hall of Fame induction. Back over to you. All right, Julia Borsten over to you. All right. Julia Borsten, thank you.

Well coming up, big tech earnings are mostly in the rearview mirror, but many retail results are still to come. We're going to tell you why our next guest is watching Walmart. And Super Micro jumping today. We're going to talk to an analyst who is getting bullish on that name as it becomes an AI pure play. Those shares popped 16% today. Closing bell overtime is back in two. to an analyst who is getting bullish on that name as it becomes an AI pure play. Those shares popped 16% today.

Closing bell overtime is back in two. ["The Daily Show"] Welcome back to overtime. Let's get a quick reset on today's market action. The Dow dropping about 250 points and you can blame United Health. It drove 400 points of negative impact by itself. UNH cratered after withdrawing guidance

and announcing its CEO is leaving. Other healthcare names hit hard too. But tech had a good day. The Nasdaq back above 19,000 for the first time. Entered a new bull market according to some folks yesterday. Nvidia, Tesla, both at more than 5%. We also wanna get a check on gold, that's up about a percent. The US dollar down slightly,

the 10-year yield nearly back to 4.5%. Meantime, the S&P 500 just about 4% from an all-time high. Big tech has resumed leadership. Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, all-notch and key valuation milestones in the last two sessions. Our next guest sees more room to run in select tech names. So joining us now is Sarah Malik. She is the equities and fixed income CIO at Nuveen.

Nuveen has over a trillion dollars in assets under management. Sarah, it's great to have you back on the show. Let's start right there. What do you like in tech? Why? Well, I think technology led us on the downside and it probably leads us out. I also think consumer leads us back on the upside.

So within technology, what we've seen is the AI boom is alive and well. We saw that with Microsoft earnings and also cloud business is strong. So we like software companies, especially if yields can settle and AI demand is going to be strong. So Microsoft is a winner here. I think that Alphabet maybe struggles a bit more because of its search engine. Apple, I'd like to see more AI coming into their iPhone before we can determine their path from here.

But larger technology companies, software companies, I think the pain trade is going to be higher. It's interesting to hear you say if yields can settle. Do you think they can settle? What does that take? I asked that knowing that the two-year ticked higher today after we got that inflation print despite the fact that it was softer than expected. And we did see a 10-year flirting with 4.5% again, which the last time we saw that was amid all of the reciprocal tariff drama that was playing out

in the market last month and was sort of seeing that level 4.5% as something of a Trump put in the bond market. Well, the two drivers that have been positive for the market, which is cooling trade relations and moderating CPI, have not been beneficial to yields. I think the issue there is that this may be the calm before the storm with inflation because the data from tariffs is not showing up in inflation numbers. That probably takes three to four months. So I think the 10 year is telling you that it's worried the bond market is worried about a pickup in inflation. And also because the economic data has remained strong on the other side. We're not going to get as many Fed rate cuts this year as the markets at once hope. We've been in the two rate cut camp for the whole year so far in 2025. I still think that's the case. So the 10 years having a hard time reversing its climb at this point because of higher inflation and a strong economy.

Sarah, what about midsize and smaller tech and then small cap stocks as well? Are those being held in check by the 10 year? It's definitely a headwind for small caps. Small caps tend to outperform when you're coming out of a recession. And there's no signs of a recession at this point. If tariffs come in at about a 10% baseline, which is our expectation, we should still just skirt a recession. It's about a 1.5% hit to GDP and a 1% increase to inflation if tariffs are at 10%. So if we skirt a recession, that's not the environment that's necessarily positive for small caps, but small caps do have a few things going for them. Of course, valuation, which has been the case for many years now. But second, small caps should do well in periods of inflation, which is what history has told us. So mix on small caps here, but it's not exactly the environment that's most positive for them.

Is our long national nightmare for bonds over? I think the bond market definitely has settled at this point. The real fear with the bond market was when we were at peak tariff pain around Liberation Day, bond market was worried that the U.S. would no longer be viewed as a safe haven. We saw that with bond yields and we saw that with the dollar weakening. I think that case is off the table and that worst case being removed is positive for the bond market. All right.

Sarah Malik, thank you. Thanks for having me. Well, check out Super Micro Soaring after Raymond James said investors should buy the stock. The analyst behind that call, who thinks shares can rally more than 20%, joins us next. Plus, social trading and investing platform eToro is set to price its IPO tonight. Coming up, what the oversubscribed offering could mean for the IPO market, overtime is back after this. Welcome back. Some signs of life in the IPO market are popping up. Earlier this hour we heard from Chime Financial planning to go public.

Tonight we're watching for the trading platform eToro to price its IPO, which is expected to be in the range of $46 to $50 a share. Now that after reports that it is also oversubscribed. And meanwhile, digital physical therapy startup Hinge Health planning to raise $437 million in its upcoming IPO at a valuation above $2 billion. That's according to a filing today. Growth has been surging as CEO Daniel Perez

told me in September. One of our papers showed about a 68% reduction in pain for people going through our program been surging as CEO Daniel Perez told me in September. One of our papers showed about a 68 percent reduction in pain for people going through our program while avoiding about two and three surgeries. And I think last time we spoke we had just under a thousand customers. We're now at about two thousand enterprise customers, available to about 18 million people with millions more under contract than are set to go live. Hinge's IPO price expected to be between 20 and $32 per share. Well, Supermicro shares soaring today

as Raymond James initiates that stock with an outperforming of $41 price target, a more than 20% upside from here, stocks down more than 50%, cut in half in the past year. Joining us now is the analyst behind that call, Raymond James, Managing Director, Simon Leopold. Simon, good to see you. So can we trust that Supermicro

is all about the fundamentals now? It's back in the high 30s, which was escape velocity early last year, but they've had these accounting issues. Yeah, so certainly it has some baggage, last year, but they've had these accounting issues. Yeah, so certainly it has some baggage, but we've applied, I think, a discounted multiple and continuously upside. So I'm not suggesting it's completely out of the woods

as far as investor sentiment goes, given the issues with the SEC filings, but look, they filed all their SEC filings, 10Qs case. On time, the newest 10Q just came out. So they're on board. And look, the issues that did occur last year that put them on, I think, the back burner for many investors are largely cleared up, but it does take some time for investors to regain confidence. So I think this is a good entry point for the stock, given essentially getting these issues cleared and moving ahead with the fundamentals.

Now, whenever I've talked to Charles Liang, the CEO, he is talking about liquid cooling and their building block technology, the idea that you can more quickly roll out their AI equipment in a way that's gonna be lower cost, higher efficiency to operate. Has the storyline around the demand for that changed at all?

I don't believe it has. Now, clearly the industry is in somewhat of a valley between generations of the GPUs, the key technology that enables AI. So that contributed to the negative pre-announcement on the recently announced quarter, but I look at this as very much transitional and it affected companies like Hewlett Packard last quarter

and we think it will affect peer competitor Dell this quarter as well. So it is an industry transition, but we believe that the Blackwell generation, which requires this liquid cooling, creates, I think, very much a new cycle here. The Saudi investments in the U.S., but also the investments and the access that American companies, including American tech companies, are going to get to build out data centers and AI capabilities in Saudi Arabia.

That was announced today. Is Supermicro poised to be a winner in all of this? I believe the simple answer is yes. They're already with some of the leading AI builds like XAI and CoreWeave. So they're in some of those headline grabbing projects. And so we do think they're very well positioned. And one of the aspects that make us like this stock is among the branded vendors,

they've been a steady share gainer over the last several years where they're really putting up good competition to what we call the white box or unbranded suppliers. So they have about 9% among all vendors into AI platforms and about 30% when we consider the branded platform. And we think that as this market evolves to more of these tier 2 sovereign networks like Saudi Arabia, we'll see companies like Supermicro doing better and better. It sounds like you think the worst is already priced in and maybe even the worst is already over for Supermicro.

What's the biggest risk to your investment thesis right now? Yeah, I think the biggest risk right now is really related to two factors. One is the ever changing tariff environment. Now that affects everybody somewhat equally, but the fits and starts have really sort of put a damper on everything. It looks like the worst may be behind us in terms of tariffs, but the rules seem to be changing regularly. The other aspect is really this transition

from one technology of GPU to the other. How does that ramp occur? And what is the availability of that newest generation? Essentially all the vendors are on allocation for the new generation of chip. And if Supermicro can get at least its fair share, it could do well. Okay. Simon Leopold, thanks for joining us

with Shares Supermicro jumping 16% today, but coming off of very depressed levels. Coinbase will be joining the S&P 500 next week. The stock is soaring in anticipation. But up next, Mike Santoli explains why history may not be on the stock side. Plus, the art market is facing a $1 billion test this week. What auction results could say about the mood of the ultra wealthy? Coming up on overtime. Welcome back. Let's turn to Coinbase.

Those shares rocketing higher today on the back of its inclusion in the S&P 500. That'll kick off next week. Shares finished up almost 24%. It will be the first and only crypto company to join the index. But is the hype of joining major index overblown? Well, Mike Santoli is back with that story and he's dug through the data. Mike.

Yeah. I mean, look, obviously lots of companies like to celebrate getting included in the S&P 500. The idea that all passive investors have to own a piece of the stock seems like it should be great for forward going performance, but the numbers don't really bear that out. One dramatic example, Tesla. This is the date that Tesla went into the S&P 500. It was very, very highly anticipated

that it would go in, stock ramped into it, and over the course of the next four and a half years, it has underperformed the S&P at times badly. Now, the stock was up 750% in the year before its inclusion. So obviously a lot of those gains got front loaded. But also what about Supermicro? Guys talking about that this hour. That went in just over a year ago.

Of course, that had had a great run. Clearly, there's a lot of stuff going on at the company that could not be necessarily overcome by simply having passive investors buy it. But even if you look at the aggregate data, there used to be a stronger index effect than there is now, possibly because investors price it in advance and it just kind of gets arbitraged away and usually in fact stocks underperform a little bit after going in. I mean, the flip side of that is you could take a name like Palantir, right?

And when it's been added to the major averages, I mean, we know it's trading at a record high today. So to your point, there are examples of this not working out well for companies, but there are also some examples of it working out well. What I'm curious about is the fact that this is the first crypto related stock that is entering the index here. And we know institutional investor flows have been making their way into things like Bitcoin,

but does this now just provide a more established equity proxy for the asset class? Possibly, I would say. It's in the benchmark, so I guess professional investors can't ignore it very much, but it was already a $50 billion market cap. That's the reason it's going in, is because it's one of the very few companies of that size

that S&P would have to choose from to put in to replace one that's leaving. And by the way, if I'm listing the reasons palatiers at an all-time high, the fact that it went to the S&P 500, I don't think, makes the top three. Touche. All right. Mike Santoli, thank you.

Well, up next, we'll frame the future of the art market and whether economic concerns or painting a bleak picture for those assets. And get out your smartphone and scan the QR code on your screen to sign up for the Fast Money Live event on June 5th at the NASDAQ. You do not to miss it. Welcome back to overtime. Uncertainty about the economy and trade could be having a big impact on the art market, which is facing a one billion dollar test this week.

Robert Frank has the details. Hi Robert. Morgan, this is the most important week of the year for the art market. The auction house is hoping we'll see a turnaround for this market. has the details. Hi Robert. Morgan this is the most important week of the year for the art market. The auction house is hoping we'll see a turnaround for this market that's been in decline for two years now. Nearly 300 works estimated as you say it over a billion dollars headed to Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips in New York. Christie's CEO Bonnie Brennan telling me that all the volatility we're seeing in markets right now could actually benefit the art market.

People are uneasy because there's so many unanswered questions. And we saw that during COVID, right? There's, I think art is always a place people come back to for a source of peace, of calm, of stability. Christie's kicked it off last week with the collection of Len Riggio. He of course is the late founder of the Barnes and Noble Book Chain. His Mondrian, there it is, going for $48 million. Last night's sale pulled in $489 million total. That was just above the low estimate, so not a great start to the week. Tonight it is Sotheby's turn.

They have the big headliner, to speak of the week. That's a bronze bronze bust by Giacometti Estimated at 70 to 90 million dollars now for the full interview with Bonnie Brennan You can sign up the inside wealth newsletter that's cnbc.com slash inside wealth or the QR code there cnbc.com slash inside wealth guys Robert you are the man for broad slash inside wealth guys. Robert, you are the man for a broad perspective on wealth here. And so I wonder four years ago, it seems like a big story in art was crypto owners diversifying into art. So how much will these coming days be about the ultra wealthy?

How much will they be a test of the impact of Bitcoin being back near all time highs? You know, a lot of the Bitcoin folks were buying NFTs back then, John, and the NFT market has virtually evaporated since then. We do see some collectors like Justin Sun buying $6 million bananas, but beyond that, not a lot of those crypto guys, at least not in the last night sale we'll see for the rest of the week. But this is still a traditional collector's market and these collectors are very discerning and very price sensitive right now, especially compared to four years ago.

Robert, of course, crypto, a lot of these guys are diversifying into space startups now, but very, very quickly, the Chinese buyer, is it alive and well in this market given all the trade dynamics? Is it alive and well in this market given all the trade dynamics? Not present much this week Morgan. This is a very American centric sales here in New York But I'm told even by those standards the Chinese are just not bidding the way they have in the past not so surprising Yeah, Robert Frank. Thank you Well earnings after the bell tomorrow Cisco core weave I bought a it will be core we first report since going public on March 28th that stock is nearly 58% higher since then. The other thing I'm watching john because we don't have a lot of macro data on the calendar tomorrow we do have a lot of fed speak but is also Robert was just talking about the

high end consumer essentially essentially the ultra wealthy consumer but also how the rest of the consumer population is fairing because we get Walmart earnings later in the week, we get retail sales, and there have been winners in this market, look no further than On Running, which had a beat and raise and a big stock move in response today.

Yeah, back to your core weave point, we're just talking about Supermicro, and Nvidia surging again as there's this hope that some of these export restrictions might rise. It might be an interesting test of AI enthusiasm, infrastructure enthusiasm ahead of Nvidia's results. And of course, we will keep an eye on President Trump as he makes his way through the Middle East and what that means for companies as well.

That does it for us here at Overtime. Fast money starts now.