Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Nvidia Delivers 11/18/25

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

Nvidia shares gained in Overtime after the company delivered strong results, topping estimates for earnings and revenue while raising its guidance. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that sales for the company’s current-generation GPU, called Blackwell, are “off the charts.” We have you covered from every angle.   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That's the end of regulation, optimum ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Thompson Reuters doing the honors at the NASDAQ and stocks strengthening into the close. The Dow is snapping its four-day losing streak. Same story for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ up about a half a percent. This is ahead of Nvidia earnings. Tech and communication services, the best performing sectors today. Energy and consumer staples were among the worst.

Nuclear stocks higher today. Constellation getting a loan from the government to restart. three-mile island. Other related names, including Oklo and Centress, also gaining in today's session. Lithium has become a hot space this week. Albemarle gaining again. So is Chilean mining company following its earnings. Sigma lithium, also a huge gainer. And if we check on crypto, it was another rough day there. That's where we've continued to see a down draft. Bitcoin down 4%, falling below $90,000. Ether falling nearly 7% as well. And that is the scorecard on Wall Street, but winter stay late. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I am John Ford alongside

Morgan Brennan, and it is NVIDIA Day. We expect those numbers at 20 minutes past the hour. Plus, we will get you ready for those numbers, bring them to you as soon as they cross, break down and analyze what we hear. But let's begin with more on today's market action. Sima Modi is joining us now. Hi, Sima. Morgan, the entire market counting down to NVIDIA's earnings report. The stock did trade higher by roughly 3% in today's trade. It's worth noting rival AMD, led by CEO Lisa Sue, has seen its stock price fare better than NVIDIA over a three-month time period on this growing optimism that its AI chip is becoming more competitive.

Hyper-scalers like meta, Amazon, Oracle that are buying hundreds of thousands of these AI chips move mostly higher, but much of the recent conversation has centered around Google. Its latest Gemini launched that's stock faring better than its peers over the past week. Shares have outperformed despite ongoing concerns around valuation, the use of debt to fund the AI build out. We also got a better read on the U.S. consumer with low-cost retailer T.J. Max delivering a strong beat as wealthier customers trade down. Loz saw a nice pop in quarterly sales while Target will it cut its forecast as Sharperists continue to look for more deals, John.

All right, Seema, thank you. Now to the bond market, we got minutes from the last Fed meeting where there was significant dissension about rate cuts. Rick said tellies in Chicago with reaction to that release, Rick. Yes, absolutely, John. It wasn't. It wasn't necessarily that it was hawkish. It was just discussing that it wouldn't be appropriate to lower rates. Of course, government's closed, data, dearth. I get it. And it was a slow burn.

The minutes were out for a half hour before the markets truly reacted. Look at twos and tens on a two-day chart. It was more about revisiting the top of recent ranges that turned the markets down, along with the fact that no October jobs report. Even though we're going to get set tomorrow, the market was also concerned about that. that. Look at Fed Fund Futures for two days. That's December. When it goes down, it prices out

the cuts. And briefly, it was under 30%, which is hovering at right now. And finally, something nobody seems to be talking about. Atlanta Fed GDP now, not always correct, but it seems to rhyme with the data. Now, that's a three-month chart.

It's now pointing towards 4.23% for third quarter GDP. Morgan, back to you. All right. We'll take note of that. Rick Santelli. Thank you. As we awaited NVIDIA results, let's bring in BD8 Capital Partners, CEO, Barbara Duran, and Main Street Chief Investment Officer, James Demert. Both Barb and James are in video shareholders. And they join us here on set for this big day and this big earnings report. So great to have you both. Welcome.

Barb, I'm going to start with you. Is this a situation where as goes in video, so goes the market? I think to a large extent at this particular moment, yes. Although I wouldn't be surprised unless it's a very big beat and raise. I think everybody's expecting that. So I would not be surprised that the stock sold off. But I think what you've seen in the last few weeks, we had the peak of the market on October 28. That was a perfect week, if you will. You had earnings were in about almost 90%. They were up much bigger than expected, at 13%. You had four of the mega-cap tech names report. You had the Fed cutting rates, you know, but that was pretty much the peak. Following that, we've had a market at 23 times

market times forward PE and you've got concerns now about a bubble on AI. I'm getting a lot of calls from clients. Is there a bubble in AI? Should we sell our Nvidia? You know, or the circular investment or the use of debt over equity and whether that means PEs will be

lower. So I think that's why there's so much not just that is such a major part of the S&P and all the mega cap tech, but I think it is important. It's very important for the market right now at this moment at time. All right. James, you know, it's funny, we went into this earning season And the chatter on Wall Street was you need to see all the hypers and sort of mega-cap tech names boost their spending to be able to keep this bull, this bull case going. And now we've come through the other side of them boosting those numbers.

And the concern is that everybody's spending too much as we look to Nvidia today. Your thoughts? Yeah, I think investors, again, are underestimating a spend. I think they're underestimating the AI cycle. We're still very early in it. And I think they're underestimating Nvidia's role in it. The demand for their specific product is, it seems almost endless. I think it's important when we look at companies at Main Street.

We look at what are the customers doing? The demand's excessive. What are the suppliers doing? TSM says they can't make enough stuff for NVIDIA. And, you know, frankly, Nvidia at 29 times earnings with growth over 40%, you know, tells us that we're still early in the cycle. This is not. It's actually below the 10-year average for NVIDIA. Thank you, yeah.

So, Barb, how much dry power? should investors have? Because even if the AI story pans out as hoped expected, the internet story did too, but we went through this valley of doubt that investors had to suffer through, even if, you know, this is half the bubble and we get half the valley, that's still going to be painful for people. How much dry powder should you have? How much should you have in store for if there are buying opportunities? Well, it's always nice to have cash on hand. However, I've been pretty much fully invested because I also have a very bullish view on the market. We're going to have these pullbacks. Again, when

Valuation is high. We're now in absence, you know, of earnings. We're not having anything until the Fed's expectation. The Fed's been making some hawkish comments. You know, it's been 50-50 out there. So it doesn't look like December we're going to have that cut. So in an absence of positive news, things are going to happen like this. But, no, it'd be nice to have dry powder because there are going to be opportunities like this. And because next year, I think, it's going to be a good year as well. You've got, you know, the tax issues are going to kick in in terms of the positives, CAPEX and for individuals. You've got coming bank to regulation, is going to free up more capital to lend out and create spending. And certainly the spending that we're seeing, we know that there's pressure on the low-income consumer, but we also know what's happening in the higher income. And you've hearing this from the travel companies, the credit card companies, people are still spending. So it looks like it's setting up nicely plus the forward guidance.

Earnings were great, but it's really the guidance that counted. And overall, it was pretty darn good for 26. James, do you agree about December and the Fed not cutting and how much weight should investors put on the labor numbers, the jobs numbers that we're going to start to get? I think they cut. I think they cut. I think that there was a question whether they needed to. The economy is growing quickly. Earnings are great. But a lot of companies are not following that pattern. And the labor market's really what they're going to look at. And they've said

we'll sacrifice inflation for labor. We don't want the economy to slip. I think they go in December, which is why our advice to investors is, yeah, you want to be fully invested if you're not. Use this choppiness that you see, all this conversation. around maybe it's an AI bubble. Yes, it's a bubble. We would suggest it's a healthy bubble that's got a long way to go. And when they continue to expand, as it did in the 90s, it can be extraordinary. So we think be fully invested.

We think the Fed cuts, which gives us, you know, in this chop now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Santa Claus rally take us up to new highs to 7100 by the end of the year. And we look back at this period and say, wow, that was one of those windows of opportunity in 2025. If the Fed doesn't cut in December because they just don't feel like they have enough data, I mean, does that put a cut actively on the table for January? And if so, how much of a difference does that really make? Well, I think it does definitely put the cut in January. But this market is so sensitive to short-termism, right?

We had a lot of psychology built in it. I'm very surprised that we're not wildly bullish here, which tells me this market's got a long way to go. But I think the Fed not cutting, you know, could damper my enthusiasm for getting the 7,100 number, I think we will meet. So I think they'll cut, and I'm certainly looking forward than doing so. You seem to be arguing the market's fully valued, Barb. So what should investors be bracing for in the potential market reaction to what we're expecting will be some pretty strong earnings from Invidia? Yeah, well, I think there's going to be more volatility, and particularly as you just said, James, that if we don't get that cut in December, which I don't

think we will, given the lack of data that we're going to have that's real time and up to date, you know, and that hurts the short-term sentiment. You know, when do we see, we need something catalyst going forward because yes in the short term the market is fully valued i don't think overvalued as some would argue so in invidia today again i think it's to be hard for the stock to go up but it's initially no matter what they report it's going to be the call afterwards and certainly he's been you know jensen one has been a great proponent of this and when they had their conference a week or so ago and he talked about this virtual um circle you know of you know you do you do more a i you make it cheaper that means more people can use it and it just explodes and

the usage, you mean, as we're seeing, you know, right now, even in corporations, it's not rolling out yet. In fact, Palo Alto, when they report, you know, we expect them to talk about what they're seeing with their beginning AI generative, and they're still seeing the companies haven't really scaled up yet. They're doing it, but it's yet to come. So there's a lot more ahead. So, you know, I think whatever happens with NVIDIA, the stock reaction, I'm not worried about the stock reaction now because I think longer term you're going to see much more out of it. And James, I'm with you. I think they're in the early stages. You mentioned Palo Alto, those numbers just crossed as you were and saw the stock initially spike up a little more than 4.5%.

We're going to have those numbers for you just after this break. Barb, James, thanks to you both. Well, Invidia soared more than 1,000 percent over this three-year AI rally. But it's had a big pullback recently from its all-time high. It's not about 10 percent from its all-time high. Let's put it into perspective here. Where does that leave Nvidia and the AI trade right now? Well, we're going to dig into that as we await those earnings.

Overtimes back in two. Palo Alto Network's earnings are out initially pop, but now it's down more than 3%. Sima Modi has the number. Sima. John, Paul Alta Network's reporting a beat on its bottom line, 93 cents versus the 89 cent adjusted estimate. Revenue, a slight beat at $2.47 billion.

dollars. And then if we look at some of the other metrics that investors follow, whether it's annual recurring revenue for its next gen security at $5.9 billion. That came in ahead of expectations as well as its remaining performing obligations. It's second quarter guidance, so its outlook for the second quarter in line with expectations. And going into this report, the bar was set high with a stock up about 55 percent over the past six months. The company also announcing a new acquisition, a next generation, a platform called Chronosphere. And as you know, John, it follows that mega acquisition of CyberArc for $25 billion. So we will look to hear from CEO Nikesh Aurora on his company's M&A strategy,

and not to mention just how more companies are adopting security for the AI workflow following that cyber attack of Anthropics' AI coding agent, Claude. Back to you. Oh, for sure. We're going to hear a lot from Nikesh Aurora here on CNBC. Don't miss Jim Kramer's exclusive interview with him coming up at 6 p.m. Eastern on Mad Money. Well, Nvidia's epic run in the chat GPT era is entering choppier waters. With earnings on deck, the stock's recent pullback may actually lower the bar for what comes next.

While many have jumped on the AI infrastructure bandwagon, not all plays have kept pace. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here to explain, Mike. Yes, Morgan. So, Nvidia, obviously, has been the leading and most consistent beneficiary of the entire AI buildout. You see that here in blue. But I wanted to include others where periodically they've been included. They've been seized upon as potential leverage plays on this trend. And sometimes they've faltered, right?

So there you go. Their super micro gets pulled in and then out. Corweave surges also falls. Broadcom, much more consistent AMD as well. I think it's healthy. The market's becoming more discerning and trying to figure out exactly how much is going to go to each player. Now, take a look at another representation of this. The stock correlation among the big hyperscaler companies, the spenders in this boom, has crashed.

means the stocks are moving their own way. This is Microsoft Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, and Amazon. That's what composes this group right here. So they were all moving as one. Everybody was going to win a few months ago. And now you see Meta down hard, Oracle giving back its gains, Google soaring. So again, you're seeing this discernment play out in lots of ways, Morgan. All right. Mike Santoli will see a little bit later. Thank you. Coming up, the moment the markets have been waiting for, InVidio's results are out right after. this break. We are moments away from

NVIDIA's earnings release. Let's bring in Gil Luria from D.A. Davidson and Patrick Moorhead for more insights and strategy. Gil, what makes the difference here between the stock popping or dropping on results that we expect are going to be better than in line?

Jensen, Matt. So a couple of weeks ago, he told us he had $500 billion. dollars worth of backlog for Blackwell and Ruben chips. We need to hear from him how much of that he's already sold, how much of that will be in calendar 26. If we think that the math shakes out the way we think it is, that actually means they're on track to meeting next year's numbers, which are incredible. They're for more than 40% growth. So a lot of this quarter isn't going to just boil down to the numbers they report for this quarter next, but to Jensen Wong's

a willingness to spell out what he meant when he said $500 billion of Blackwell and Rubin. Patrick Moorhead, there's always doubt, it seems, lately heading into an NVIDIA quarter. And the stock tends to wobble after the report, even if the results, when the results, are good and better than expected. What is it on the conference call? What is it about what Jensen Huang tends to say about the pipeline and about the demand he sees that gets things stabilized again? Yeah, so I agree with what Gil said, but what I'd like to see is the equation or the math that goes from the 40% year-over-year increase in hyperscale or CAPEX, a percentage of take from NVIDIA to make those numbers become more real. Jensen did give more clarity on those numbers, which was five to six quarters, the $500 billion. dollars and to me it's very supported by the capex increases by their largest customers

i want to mention the results are out we are going through them you can see the stock is up a couple percent yeah so uh gill i'm going to go back to you we're probably going to cut you up here in a couple of seconds and that is uh depreciation how important is that certainly investors are debating how long the shelf life of these chips actually is it's very important because it's a big driver of profitability for the cut for their biggest customers, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, their current depreciation schedule corresponds to a certain level of margins. If they had to accelerate that depreciation schedule, their margins would go down. But more importantly, for those companies is their cash returns. And their cash returns really don't. I'm going to touch

you off so we can get to Christina. Stay right there. Christina Parts and Avelas has the numbers. Let's start with the top and bottom line. So it is a beat, $1.30. adjusted EPS earnings per share higher than the street, 5 cents higher on revenues of $57 billion. Also higher, higher not only than the street, but higher than buy side numbers in regards to data center revenue, which is contributing about almost 90% of total revenue. So a big factor, that is stronger, $51.2 billion. And then gross margins. We keep worrying about input costs, memory costs, et cetera.

Gross margins coming in slightly above 73.6%. Street was anticipating 73.4. There is a very bold statement from Jensen Wong, the CEO of Invidia. Blackwell sales are off the charts and cloud GPUs are sold out. Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference. So, and he said we've entered this virtuous cycle of AI. So I'll go through it to get you some more numbers, but so far quite bullish, the stock reacting positively, guys.

All right, Christina, thank you. Stock's up about 4.5% right now. Gil, I just cut you off. So I want to get your initial take on this. Yeah, I'll finish the thought to say that their most important customers are Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. Those companies have all the customers, and they just told us two weeks ago that just in the most recent quarter, they saw a positive inflection point for demand. So they are able to rent out NVIDIA's GPUs years in advance, and they're building to that demand.

That tells us they're getting positive cash on cash returns, which is the most important. thing. Of all the things that are happening to Nvidia, the most important thing is that those three companies, which represent most of the demand and all of the customers, are telling us they need as many Nvidia GPUs as they can get. Patrick

Moorhead, want to get your reaction to what we've heard so far from this print, especially with Jensen Wong saying Blackwell sales are off the charts and cloud GPUs are sold out. All right. I think we just lost Patrick. Gil, I'll get your thoughts on that.

So the numbers are great. Again, the numbers right now are great. What's more important is that for the first time, to two weeks ago when Jensen told us about that $500 billion number, he was giving us the longest term guidance he's given in a long time. So that tells us everything is hitting as it should. They should be able to live up to that demand. So not only are the numbers right now good, but we do have more visibility into next year than we've had before. All right. Speaking of visibility into next year, let's get the guidance from Christina parts and novelist. Christina. So we have Q4 Revenue Guide. That is coming in at $65 billion, not only higher than the street, but higher than most byside numbers. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America was, you know, guessing anywhere between, I should say guessing, but saying between 63 and 64 billion. So you can see this guide coming in at 65 billion. Same thing for Q4 non-gap gross margins. Again, this number is at 75%. Keep in mind, CFO collect crest promised that they would exit the year in the mid-70s around 75%, so it seems like

this guide is holding true to that promise so far. So again, shares reacting positively to this stronger guide that is even higher than what the by-side houses were expecting. All right, Christina, thank you. I know you're continuing to look at it, and the stock, Gil Luria, is still up 3%. This is an unusual response for Nvidia after earnings. Often, kind of sell the news, even when the news is quite good. Maybe some of this has to do with the way the stock has been performing lately. We were just mentioning Christina Partsenevelas was how it's been underperforming AMD. But this also suggests with both a strong Q4 revenue guide and strong gross margins that there's plenty, plenty of demand at these high prices, right?

That's right. And what we've had coming into this quarter is all these concerns about Nvidia, very well-placed concerns, scrutiny on CapEx, what's going to happen with China, competition from TPUs, all the depreciation as we've talked about, circular deals. All these things are valid concerns. They put pressure on Nvidia's stock, but sometimes the most important thing is the only thing. The demand for AI compute is growing so fast. The models are getting so good, that all of these companies will need to continue to buy Nvidia into the foreseeable future in order to be able to provide us access to the AI compute we want.

Just yesterday, Google came out with Gemini, and we've been talking about how that's on top of TPUs. But the more important takeaway is that this is by far the biggest model trained on the most chips, which tells us we're still on the scaling for compute. So our models are still getting better, even though we're now using gargantuan clusters of chips to train them. That is a very good sign for the demand for NVIDIA. Okay. We want to get back to Christina Parts and Nevelas for more from this report, Christina.

So it's actually now from the CFO comments. They put that on their website at post earnings. And so what Collette Cress is saying is a shorter speech or I guess report. And she is pointing out to that H20 sales were insignificant in the third quarter. I know Gil was just talking about China. H20s were geared towards China, but keep in mind last quarter, too, they spoke about H20 sales not going to China because, not because of the United States, but because China is blocking companies from using those H20 sales. There's two other points to have to do with gaming, which still contributes almost 9% of total

revenue. Gaming fell 1% sequentially, and they're saying this has to do with just heading into the holiday season, things normalized, Q4 tends to be a lot stronger, and then lastly, auto revenue, which is, you know, up and coming perhaps going to be a big source of revenue in the near term, but right now is only up 1% sequentially, but up 32% from a year ago. And that's because of their self-driving platforms. Guys? Okay. Christina Prattanovelas, thank you. Shares of NVIDIA up about 3% right now. We got Patrick Moore head back. So I want to bring him into this conversation as well. Patrick, want to get your response to the numbers. It was a beat and raise for invidia much better than expected strong commentary from jensen wong and all of this without china

your thoughts i mean that's exactly what i'd expected beat beat and a raise and it makes sense right if you look at the near term blackwell is sold out and there's unprecedented demand and we can debate and we can argue that you know it's frontier models and you know there's no downstream to it but we're still in this building stage so there's really nothing to debate here and then then when I put the extra KAPX, the hyperscalers forecasted a 40% increase in KAPX into 2026. I think that pretty much secures 2026. So for the most part, we're talking about 2027, which is, can we get enough power? And is there enough downstream demand to monetize the previous investments? All right. Well, James Demert, back with us here on set. You already

own Nvidia, so you're happy. You probably don't sell it, but do you buy more? I think if you don't own enough of it, you've got to add more here, John, and I think a lot of people don't own it. I think a lot of people just, again, underestimating how incredible these numbers can be. Probably going to be that way all the way into 26. So if I own it, which we do, a lot of it, we want to continue to have that position. If your position's not big enough, I think you use this chop. I mean, the stock's down 10% from the high. Here's a great window to go in there and acquire more shares. And I don't think they're going to have any problem with competition in 26.

But let's keep in mind, the real risk in NVIDIA isn't the AI cycle because we're early. But it is the product. And you've got Google and Amazon coming along with some chips as well. And that could be something we look at in 26. But boy, it's clear ceiling from here. Yeah, Barbara Duran is here on set as well, also as shareholder. Barb, I want to get your thoughts on this report. We just talked about it, the fact that H20 sales were insignificant in the quarter,

according to the CFO comments. I mean, earlier today, you had Jensen Huang in Washington for this Saudi investment summit as well. And one of the headlines that came out of that is the fact that it looks like the U.S. is now greenlighting these advanced chips for investments in Saudi Arabia. How much does Sovereign AI still have a role to play, especially if you do start to see a petering off in coming years of hyperscalor CAPEX? I think Sovereign has a big role. And we haven't even talked about China because that's still very caught up in political ways. but that could be another, if they get permission to sell the black will, current generation chips, that could be another $50 billion to them.

But the sovereigns are definitely coming. And it's with the hyperscalers at first, those are the ones that are spending hundreds of billions, but the sovereigns will be quite large. And as long as there's not a political issue in selling to them, this could be big new markets that are happening. So the Saudi Arabians, you know, are going to be one of many, and we've already seen, you know, a bunch of the countries stepping up for this. So.

We don't see Invidia doing a lot of large-scale acquisitions, maybe because, you know, it's risky to try. But we do see them spreading the love in the forms of billions of dollars across the software AI landscape. Is that going to be enough to fuel growth in the way that big M&A tends to when companies are at this scale and people continue to look for growth? Yeah, there's no way they get any acquisition of any size approved. They weren't able to buy ARM years ago when they were much smaller. They're not going to be able to buy something now. Those investments are helping them seed the market. So there's investments like the ones they just made in Anthropic.

That's a very valuable investment because Anthropics leading the way on STEM research, on coding research. And so that creates a bigger and bigger market. There's also some investments that we're not crazy about. When they give Corweeve a dollar, Corweev borrow nine and then uses eight of the 10 to buy Nvidia chips and doesn't get sufficient returns to pay its interest. We don't love that. We'd rather Nvidia keep selling to Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Elon. There's enough customers out there.

And as you just made the point on the panel, the Chinese market will come back at some point. These numbers that we're talking about today don't include almost any China. When those come back, that's another leg. You talked about the globalization, which is selling outside of the U.S., outside of just the U.S. hyper-scalers.

So they still have that going on. They don't need the circular deals in order to continue the growth. They can keep investing in these small software companies that are driving AI development and research. They don't need the little neocloud deals. Those have been destructive to their share price and to the market. And we hope they start moving away from that. Yeah. Patrick, I mean, we're throwing boards up on the side of the screen here, showing all the stocks that are moving higher in sympathy, including, by the way,

not only like other chip makers that might be experiencing a halo effect like Taiwan Semi, but also direct competitors like AMD and Broadcom here, want to get your thoughts on whether this is a rising tide that lifts all boats, certainly for markets right now here in overtime, it seems to be. Yeah, this is a testament to future demand for the space. NVIDIA did well. Invitya is the bellwether for the space, and this means that demand continues. So there's increased confidence across the entire industry, and I wouldn't be surprised if that extends to not just additional chip stocks, but also downstream providers and customers of NVIDIA. All right. Patrick Moorhead, Gil Luria, Barb Duran, James Demert, thank you all for joining us, our all-star panel. Thank you.

Well, we've got much more reaction to the NVIDIA results. That is coming up right after this break, right here on overtime. Welcome back to overtime checking on the markets right now. The Dow up 47 points. That's where we ended. The S&P also ending higher, almost 4 tenths of 1%. 6642 is the level there. And the NASDA composite finishing up 6 tenths of 1%.

All of those major averages breaking multi-day losing streaks. Well, in video right now, it's higher here in overtime by, oh, about 3.5%. earnings of $1.30 per share. Revenue $57 billion. That was both, I should say, were better than expected. That revenue number was up more than 60% year over year. Raising guidance as well, which had been expected, but the raise bigger than street estimates. Positive comments from CEO Jensen Huang saying Blackwell sales are, quote, off the charts. Yeah. Yeah, also checking on some other stocks in the data center game, crashing the party, AMD, Micron, Broadcom, all higher in overtime, Corweave up about almost 6%, small after-hours gains for the other mega-cap tech stocks to Alphabet, continuing its strong performance.

It is the only Mag 7 stock higher in November, and a big deal in software today. Adobe buying Semrush for $12 a share that amounts to $1.9 billion. Semrush helps companies with their brand visibility online as that game changes from search engine optimization to being AI-driven. And we've talked a lot about the decline in Bitcoin. It's also having a huge impact on the companies which have become crypto treasuries. Strategy has lost nearly half of its value in the last three months. Up next, Fast Money's Tim Seymour on how he's trading in Vida following these results. Plus, all the earnings that could move the market tomorrow when overtime returns.

Welcome back. on NVIDIA. Those shows are up 3.5% right now after beating on the top and bottom lines just moments ago. Joining us now is Seymour Asset Management and Fast Money Trader, Tim Seymour. Tim, it's great to have you back on. Great to be here, Morgan. Thank you. All right. What are your thoughts? I think, you know, so much for not wanting to see AI spend and so much for people actually getting that chance to buy Nvidia on a dip. I think there's a lot of disappointed people. The fact of the matter is, GTC told us we were going to be north of $500 billion in terms of where they're going to be on 26 for Blackwell. And Rubin, the dynamic on the gross margins

was where you wanted it. I like Invidia here. I like it not only because it's 29 times forward, but because I think actually you actually took a lot of that fast money out of this, pardon the fast money environment that we're in where, of course, everybody wants more fast money. But other than that, I really thought these numbers were strong. Let's see where we kind of settle in. I mean, this reaction is probably even a little bit more muted, considering this was supposed to be the Super Bowl. But they hit the numbers that we kind of knew they were going to hit.

Yeah, I want to go back to the valuation here because you just touched on it, especially after the stock sold off over the last couple of weeks, trading it 29 times forward earnings. That's actually below the 10-year average of 35 times. It's also a slight premium to NASDAQ 100s multiple of roughly 26 times, but, of course, most companies are not growing the way NVIDIA is. No, and of all the hype around the circular AI trades, the fact that NVIDIA has positioned itself as an AI infrastructure company

in addition to everything else is, is probably more hype for everybody else than it is NVIDIA. In other words, this to me, I know this is absurd, but it's almost the least hype stock out there, because in fact they're delivering because they are growing and because you mentioned that valuation, which I mentioned, which is that this is not a case where you've got a company that I think is at least priced in extraordinary growth. They've priced in what they're doing.

Tim, what do you make of the after-hours action here in overtime with some of these other AI-related stocks popping a bit? Is this just a brief short squeeze across AI and some risk? I see Bitcoin back above 90K here in overtime, or is this the start, perhaps, of the risk-on trade getting fresh legs? Well, you know, tactically going into a short holiday week and where we've come and maybe a sense that you get some payroll data tomorrow that's old, but maybe gives you some sense of, you know,

the Fed being actually maybe not as hawkish as they've sounded this week and as they've sounded over the last 10 days. I think you've put some more discernment into the stock picking across the AI space. So I don't think that Micron should trade where it does. I do think that, you know, memory and some of the dynamics around the trade that have gotten overly frothy should get shaken out a little bit more. I think the stronger hands are going to be there. I think people are still concerned about how much money met is spending.

I do think there are opportunities to pick up some of these big companies. Look, if you look across the MAG7, half of these stocks are now down on the year or flat. All right. Well, Tim, thank you. And you can hear a lot more from Tim Seymour and the rest of the fast money traders coming at 5 p.m. on fast money. Well, Walmart is the big name on tomorrow's earnings calendar. And we've got a top analyst with a buy rating telling us what he's expecting. from the world's largest retailer.

And we are just moments away from NVIDIA's earnings call much more on those results when overtime returns. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Another big day of retail earnings when Walmart and Bath and Body Works report before the bell. Then after the bell here in overtime,

we'll break down results from Gap, Raw stores, and Intuit. We're going to hear exclusively, from Intuit's CEO on the numbers and the Open AI Partnership. That's before the call right here on overtime. And better late than never. On the economic front, we will finally get the September jobs report. That's thanks to the end of the government shutdown. The October existing home sales will also be released.

Well, let's talk about the big earnings report tomorrow in retail and just in general, Walmart. Investors are going to be watching for clues into the health of the consumer. analysts are looking for more than $175 billion in revenue for the quarter. Joining us now is Joseph Feldman, senior MD, and assistant director of research at Telsi Advisory Group. So, I mean, Walmart's got grocery in a big way, unlike some of the other names that have reported. How are they positioned with these economic wins? And how well does that position them, given what we've seen from the others? Yeah, Walmart is extremely well positioned in this environment.

I mean, they offer the lowest prices and they have the most customers. And so when people are looking for value, especially on groceries and everyday essentials, Walmart is really one of the best places to turn. And, you know, the good news for Walmart is also not necessarily the best news for everybody else. I mean, we've heard from other retailers who have talked about the consumer being cautious, consumer slowing, consumer being selective with how they're spending on discretionary goods. But as far as Walmart's concerned, they're winning. They're getting that customer in the door. I think that the essential side of their business is going to be good. General merchandise might be a little softer.

We'll have to see how that plays out. But Walmart should be one of the winners this holiday season. How much of the stock reaction might be about everything other than the fundamentals, given that we've got a CEO transition that they're sure to be talking about on the call now, out from a CEO who's done quite well and is beloved? Yeah, no, I do think that some of it relates to Doug McBillan leaving, some of it relates to just, you know, seeing what the peer group did, Target today reported, and, you know, their numbers were a little bit softer than expected, especially on the top line.

And I think that that, you know, gave people little cause for concern. You know, a lot of the Retail's Home Depot lows, they've reported this week. They've also talked about the consumer slowing down a little bit in recent weeks. And so there's a lot of anxiety, I think, around Walmart. My biggest concern for Walmart is expectations are just so high. You know, people are expecting around a 4% same-store. sales lift. And, you know, I do believe they can do that. But sometimes when you hit the expectation, it's not enough. And investors want more. So we'll have to see how that plays out.

But I do think that Walmart is still a good one that you want to be positioned in for the longer term. Joe, I mean, if you flip up the hood on Walmart, it's a tech company underneath, right? And they just struck this partnership with OpenAI. They have the advertising business. They have all these ways that they've leaned in and invested into new tech and new innovation. Are investors paying enough attention to that and what it means in terms of future revenue streams? You know, I think that's a great point that you bring up Morgan because they really are like a tech company. Doug McMillan has embraced that as CEO. I think John Ferner equally will do so going forward. And you've seen a lot of big wins for Walmart and in terms of operating efficiency, serving the customer better.

And I think the stock is rewarded for that. You know, when you look at the valuation, it's not inexpensive. So I do think that people kind of have rewarded them for their efforts on the tech side. They've embraced AI as much or better than really anybody in retail. And we think that that machine learning, computer vision, you put it all together and you've got real productivity coming out of the company for years to come. Yeah, you cover a number of the companies we've already gotten results from this week, whether it's Home Depot and Lowe's or Target today. What are the takeaways so far and how does it set us up for tomorrow? Yeah, I think. I think the consumer is cautious. I think you're seeing that. Now, at the same time, when the

consumer is in the store, they're spending, and they're spending what they normally would. Both Home Depot and Lowe's called out not really seeing much of a trade down. Even Target had said that to us as well. So, you know, the consumer remains somewhat resilient. It's just that they are trying to stretch their dollars. You're seeing, I think Walmart's probably going to talk about a more pronounced paycheck cycle going forward, which is something that we've heard from other retailers. So it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Everybody's watching their commentary or listening their commentary on the consumer. Yep, here on CNBC in the morning, Joe Feldman. Thank you. Thank you. As we do prep for Walmart's results, Mike Santoli's breaking down the consumer

goods versus services trade and what it could mean for retail stocks. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the closing bell overtime podcast on your favorite podcast app. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. Let's get one last check on NVIDIA here in overtime. It's up about 4% right now. We're just moments away from the company's Ernie's call, where we'll hear more from CEO Jensen Huang and others from the suite C-suite. So stay tuned. Too fast money for that because that is going to be the next key for this stock.

Yeah. For sure. With the holidays right around the corner, retail earning seasons heating up. There's a split between spending on stuff and experiences. So what are the charts saying about where the consumer momentum is really headed? Mike Santoli is back with that. Yeah, John, I think one of the concerns is that the consumer momentum isn't seemingly headed anywhere, at least right now. There was a more dramatic split between spending on services, things like travel and restaurants

and goods for a while. This PEG is the entertainment and leisure ETF. It basically covers a broad range of consumer services. And you see just recently, until weeks ago, there was a very, very wide divide there between that and the retail ETF, which is stores. That's people where you buy stuff and all the big caps are the ones that are influenced. Now, a similar trajectory, you know, they're holding up. up a little, you know, above the former peaks from earlier this year. It's not necessarily

all distress, all pressure, but it is an area of concern for this market. They're farther off their highs than the overall market is. Today, Target results didn't really help the cause, although TJX, of course, continues to be a standout. The price to sales ratio of companies that used to be very similar, Walmart and Target, in terms of how the market viewed them and sustainability of their sales growth and all the rest, that has obviously fallen apart. So, on a price to sales basis is now seen by the market as much closer to Macy's where you're pricing in no or negative growth for the long term than it is to Walmart, which is obviously this consistent winner and market share gain or more of a staples type of a business model. So, you know, whether that means that there's more room for Target to revive, those are 10 or 11 times forward earnings Macy's and Target. It does show you there's not broad confidence that we're going to see some kind of a massive reacceloration.

in the purchases of goods. Mike, I think of the services tailwind that we saw for a long time is a bit of a legacy of the pandemic where there was a sort of revenge spending on going out and doing stuff. Is that perhaps petering out in a definitive way finally? It could be. I honestly think travel is kind of really the swing factor. And the shutdown, the government shutdown really did cause a lot of those travel names to suffer a little bit.

So it's transport, it's travel, it's airlines. We even saw the online booking stocks trail off when, you know, Google launched Gemini for, you know, plan your travel through an agent and all the rest. So I think there's a little bit of static in terms of how sustainable those business models are. But yes, you have seen this waxing and waning between goods and obviously that's where the tariffs are, have been applied to. And that's those stocks got punished earlier in the year much more than services did. Demographically, you would think services still has a long time.

term advantage because as people get older, they don't need as much stuff, but they need plenty of services. All right. Mike Santoli. Thank you. Well, Morgan, InVIDIA, Blackwell chips are certainly goods, and those are getting bought. They're goods. They're getting bought. I would imagine he's going to get some questions on this call about depreciation, since that's been a debate within the market, even if it hasn't been so much in the industry. And to your point, just the comments about Blackwell sales off the charts, cloud GPUs sold out right now, certainly sets the stage for what I would imagine it's going to be a very confident Jensen Wong on that call. Jensen has argued in the past that part of what Kuda does and

NVIDIA's vertical approach to not just putting out chips but systems is there's a long useful life of those things, but also as he puts out more products, if you buy the latest version, you get even more efficiency. So I don't know. It depends on what the customer wants to buy. Yeah. And of course, all of this is you have the Saudis in Washington, and we're continuing to see more of these trade deals, including things like sovereign AI take shape too.

All right, well, that's going to do it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts now.