Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Potential Shutdown Impact; IREN Co-CEO on Stock Surge As Company Pivots 9/26/25

Episode Date: September 26, 2025

Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management on how markets and policy collide as a government shutdown looms. Citi’s Geoff Meacham outlines the risks for pharma, while HSBC’s Jose Rasco breaks down the market action as the AI trade shows signs of unwinding.IREN Co-CEO Dan Roberts explains the company’s pivot from bitcoin mining to AI cloud—and the explosive stock surge that’s followed. Plus, Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge highlights key catalysts to watch for next week.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Let's the end of regulation. Ronald McDonald's House, ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Harrow doing the honors at the NASDAQ. Stocks rebounding today from a three-day slide. The Dow closing with a nearly 300-point gain today was the outperformer. Half a percent for the NASDAQ up by a third of a percent. Still, despite today's rebound, all the major averages closing lower for the week. The NASDAQ was the worst of the bunch, but still the loss is less than 1 percent. Energy, utilities, consumer discretionary, the best-performing sectors today. Meanwhile, consumer staples finishing in the red, the only S&P sector to do so, and energy in general having a really good week, the XLE up four days in a row, having its best since the middle of June. And we are seeing a big move in medals to gold with another all-time high, above 3,800 for the first time. Silver, platinum, both higher by more than 3%. And look at the weekly gains. The silver's up 8% in a week, and platinum, a big move.

12% almost. Shiny. Well, that's the scorecard on Wall Street, but winter stay late. Welcome to closing ball overtime. I'm John Ford, alongside Morgan Brennan, and we're navigating Washington's impact on your money from chips to trucks, farmer to furniture. Stocks are making moves on the latest tariff news. We will explore those groups. And shares of iron down today after a downgrade, but the stock is still up 600% from the market lows in early April, as that company is right in the middle of the AI data center build out, also Bitcoin mining. Companies co-CEO will be here on set to discuss. But let's begin with the impact of the president's plans to get U.S. chipmaking on par with

overseas manufacturers. Christina Parts-Nablist is joining us now from the NASDAQ with more. Christina. Hi, and I need to start with Intel because it's really extended its rally this week, up what 20 percent. And today's news is really the U.S. government is considering imposing a 100 percent tariff on imported chips that exceed what. of fat produces domestically. So you import one, you got to make one here. And that's why you're

seeing Intel closing 4% higher. And that's also why the world's third largest contract chipmaker global foundries closed 8% higher, given it does have significant U.S. capacity. It could benefit from this new policy. Taiwan Semi was down about 1%. Though large, fabulous players like NVIDIA Broadcom, Marvell, would likely redirect more orders to TSM's U.S. facilities in Arizona. so that could be a positive. Tower semiconductor closing roughly, let's go. Hey, turned in the grain. So let's say it's flat.

It's an Israeli specialty foundry that has two fabs in the U.S. and could potentially ramp up production for U.S. customers, as could analog chip makers like analog devices, microchip, Texas instruments, which is why Texas is up over

or closed over 1% higher. But the problem is execution would be very complex. Most chips are imported, embedded in Finnish systems like servers and laptops. And so this would force system manufacturers like Dell, Super MicroHP, to really track semiconductor origins across their entire supply chain, which could be seen as a logistical nightmare.

All of those names closing in the red. Bottom line, expanding U.S. manufacturing or promising to do so appears like the way forward. John. All right. Christina, thank you. Now let's hit to the bond market. Yields holding steady as the latest read on inflation comes right in line with expectations. Rick Santelli, joining us on that from Chicago.

Rick. Yes, in line with expectations, but still warm, sticky. And the markets, the markets are very aware of this. Look at the two-year and the 10-year on one chart. And notice how the 10-year seems to be breaking away to the upside and yield. That's the component, in my opinion, that's reflecting 2.9 year-over-year core. These are sticky numbers, and those are some of the Fed's favorite inflation numbers. Add in personal income and spending had some horse pie.

and that's pushing longer-term yields higher. But we had Michigan confidence slip from its mid-month read, and that might be affecting the two-year in a bit of a different way because that has been focusing mostly on the Fed. And if you open the chart up, you know, we had a two-year auction this week. That chart reflects more of the old two-year. The new two-year, a little bit higher in basis points. It basically is coming off a one-month-high-yield close.

If you look at tens, it's a more aggressive chart. Now, that's September 1st. And you can see, just like today's chart, the right-hand side of that hasn't turned lower, like the two-year. It's still moving higher. And that's reflected in the 210 spread, as you see. That's a 12-hour chart, and it has been steepening. The reason I find that so important now is because it certainly seems as though the market has a two-way issue it has to deal with. The economy, some of the data, is actually not so bad, even picking up when you look at income in spending.

but inflation being sticky and questions of how deep the labor market trough may be is going to make the Fed's mission that much more complicated. Morgan, back to you. All right, Rick Santelli, thank you. Now, it could be a wild weekend in Washington as negotiations continue to fund the government beyond Tuesday, so into fiscal 2026, and to avoid a government shutdown. Emily Wilkins joins us from Washington with the latest in what is maybe, can we call it horse trading or maybe anticipation of horse trading, and I'm not sure it very much is getting done right now. Not very much is getting done, Morgan. And that's kind of the problem. You know, it has been a

week since the Senate tried and failed to ensure that the government would remain funded at the end of this month. And at this point, we're no closer to avoiding a shutdown. In fact, we're probably further away. Both sides really digging in. Republicans, of course, looking to continue current government funding until November 21st. That would give them seven weeks to hash out the details of funding the government for fiscal year 2026. And it's, look, the same thing that Democrats have voted for multiple times when they were in power. Speaker Mike Johnson even tweeted today that when Biden was president, Democrats insisted upon keeping the government open, pointing out that now under Trump, they're doing exactly

the opposite in hopes that the damage will somehow be blamed on Republicans. But what Democrats see this as, one of the only leverage points they're going to have to move their priorities. Top House Democrat, Hakeem Jeffries, doubled down today, saying that Dems are not going to back keeping the government open unless Republicans agree to expand health care benefits. One of the reasons why our fight for the American people is so urgent right now is because over the next few weeks, tens of millions of Americans are going to get notices indicating their premiums, co-pays, and deductibles are increasing dramatically because of the Republican refusal to extend

the tax credits. The Senate returns Monday evening to try again to pass a stopgap. And guys, it's not clear at this point whether that is going to be successful. But at this point, we're not seeing any Democrats really seem to shift and say that they plan to back it. John? All right. Emily Wilkins, thank you. Now for more on what Wall Street should expect from a possible government shutdown.

Let's bring in Monica Gera. She is head of U.S. policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Monica, Democrats are trying to make the shutdown. potentially about health care, relitigating the president's bill from the summer, literally. Who gets blamed for the shutdown, you think? And if government job cuts come along with it, who gets blamed for that?

Does that matter for the markets? I don't think that piece matters for markets when we're thinking about blame. The electorate on either side is going to point to the other guy, right? That's sort of the natural flow of things. What Democrats are balancing here is trying to have, you know, this one piece of leverage, like was mentioned earlier, to move on some of these priorities, in light of the fact that the president also has the ability to actually cut budgets

while the government is shut down. So there is a lot at risk. Now, I'm in Hawaii right now with clients, and while it's a world away from Wall Street, you know, they're worried about this because they're one of those key economies that's really dependent on government contracts like the Department of Defense. What about health care, since that is one of of the topics that's being tossed around here in this shutdown talk, are health care stocks, perhaps affected by what does or doesn't happen in this fight? Health care stocks are likely to be impacted for sure. OBBBA, you know, with the Medicaid rollbacks, that sort of stake in the ground that the Democrats

are putting into place. It could have negative impact if you get continued cuts there. If the president says, all right, we're going to shut down, this could be an area that he continues to focus. So there is at a lot, there is a lot at risk for not just individuals, but also the Democratic Party. The other thing I just want to highlight the reason why I mentioned the Department of Defense and healthcare, I think, together is a good example of this of industries that are very heavily reliant on those government contracts. And during times of full government shutdown, you can actually get a sell-off. So in our view, that's a generally attractive entry point, especially for areas where you think you might get a return to regular,

funding, so like a defense. Health care is a different story. That's a longer-term risk. I'm glad you just brought that up, and I guess technically it's the Department of War now. But the expectation is that at some point you're going to get the government funded. It's probably going to be continuing resolution or stopgap funding, at least in the near term. Does that present a risk when you start talking about investing in government contractors? Stop gap funding is likely to come. It's just what is the time period. And the longer you wait, the more risk is injected. For us, when we think historically, you have to look at the bond market volatility, there tends to be a knee-jerk response when there's shutdown risk, but then that tends to

die down. Importantly, this is because you get the government essentially making whole, not just the labor and jobs that have been put on pause, the ones that are considered non-essential, as well as making those contractors whole. So from our view, you have to see through that noise. And typically, what happens in the equity space is that markets do see through it. And on average, you see about markets railing about 4.4% on the back end. So if you have a Congress that is very focused now on trying to get a fiscal 2026 budget in place, or at least, you know, stall a government shutdown or prevent a government shutdown here, what other legislation is now being stalled in the process? Big one is the Clarity Act around Stablecoin. That's something that, I would say, the

financial services sector in particular is looking for additional guidance on, right? We have the Genius Act pass. And Stablecoin was on, a stable coin legislation with the Clarity Act was on the docket, on the agenda. Now that's going to be pushed likely to 2026. So we're going to have to wait for more clarity in that space, right, within the new year. Okay. Monica Guerra, thanks for joining us. Well, coming up on overtime, we're looking at sectors affected by the president's latest tariff announcements, 100% tariff on some pharmaceuticals. that could go into effect next week, what it means for companies, what it means for consumers.

And Oracle, falling 8% this week. Of course, it's had a huge AI run. Are the markets reconsidering valuations are just coming up for air? Overtime's back in two. Welcome back to Overtime. Shares of Pack Car, one of the best performers in the S&P today. The truck maker potentially benefiting

from a 25% tariff, President Trump says he'll put on heavy trucks made outside the U.S. The president also saying he'll impose a 50% tariff on imported kitchen. cabinets and bathroom vanities effective Wednesday. Shares of American Woodmark and Master Brand see rising more than 6% both do the majority of their manufacturing in the U.S. Yeah, this is an interesting one. I mean, heavy trucks, maybe X-PACR are, many of them are final assembled in Mexico. So that's a dynamic, I think, to watch here on the trucking side.

And then in terms of furniture, 30% on upholstered furniture, another dynamic to watch RH last I checked was trading lower, something like 3% at finished down today. A lot of folks, I think, also don't realize that a name like Lowe's is one of the top importers within corporate America into this country. So when you start talking about things like vanities and other home goods, these are some of the names to continue to watch. Yeah, and how much benefit is there for those who are manufacturing in the U.S.? How flexible are these supply chains? I guess we're going to see how the consumer response. Yeah, diversification of supply chains continues here in incentivization, perhaps, to,

manufacture more in the U.S., which is actually what our next guest is going to talk about. President Trump announcing last night as well that he will impose 100% tariff on pharmaceutical products entering the U.S. starting October 1st, unless they are building manufacturing plants here stateside. EU and Japan will be exempt from the 100% with the U.S. honoring the 15% cap that was put into place under the current trade deals. The sector taking the news in stride today, see a lot of green right there on the screen with the big pharma names. Our next guest says the move could be a relief for investors who have been uncertain about the sector since the initial tariffs announcement on April 2nd. So City Research Managing Director Jeff Meacham joins us now.

Jeff, great to have you on. The fact that we're seeing the stocks trade higher, is that because this is the best case scenario for the drug makers? Thanks for having me, first of all. I wouldn't say it's a best case scenario, but it definitely is a bit of a de-risking event. We've been talking about, as you mentioned, tariffs on the pharma industry really since April. And every week or every other week, it seems like there's kind of a new proclamation about the pharma and the drug industry. And so it does feel like companies that have already invested, they're going to, you know, that's going to build some goodwill and those that haven't. I'd be surprised if a lot of companies haven't already build

new plants here or expanded their existing plants. But here we are, though. So it does feel like a bit of a relief. All right. So I guess in terms of, because so many pharma names have announced plans to create more manufacturing here in the U.S. Who are the ones that we should be watching that perhaps haven't that could now potentially make an investment and or see increases to prices for imported drugs? I mean, we put out a list of all the companies that have made public proclamations, and it's the entire industry. I would say the other segment that we haven't talked about the spec pharma and the generics industries, there may be lower margin, you know, type of P&Ls.

I think a lot of the manufacturing, it may not be here in the US, but a lot of the big guys, so, you know, Big Cap Biotech and Big Cat Pharma, you know, that includes US and European companies. There are, you know, plans that are already in place. And I think they've been expanded over the past spring and summer. And so this shouldn't come as a surprise to any of the leadership teams.

It seems there's some difference, Jeff, between promises and real plans. I think back to Foxcon, you know, eight or so years ago, promising this big LCD plant in Wisconsin that really never happened. Is the lead time less for this pharma stuff? How likely is it that the things that companies promise to do now to avoid the stick actually turn into a full grown carrot? Yeah, no, it's a great question. And the funny thing is that a lot of companies have five or 10-year plans to grow capex. and grow their manufacturing footprint. And that includes everything from, you know, API, the active pharmaceutical ingredient

to, you know, the fill finish, the final product. And so my guess is that since this has become a priority for President Trump, that companies just became more public with their plans. And maybe they accelerated their plans. And so it's hard to say what was in the works already versus sort of new net, you know, investments. But either way, though, I think there's going to be, he's going to want some sort of proof that this is actually happening, it's kind of hard to stop, you know, it's kind of hard to fake that. So my suspicion is that you'll see a lot of, you know, new plants breaking ground

if they haven't already, you know, this year going into next. We'll track it for sure. Jeff, thank you. Jeff Meacham from City. Thank you. Well, GDP numbers this week showing a stronger than expected economy, but is the market fearing economic weakness. Mike Santoli is going to look at the move in cyclicals. And electronic arts spiking late in the session on news that it could go private. We've got more in that potential deal when overtime continues. Welcome back. Shares of electronic arts spiking late in the session on a Wall Street Journal report that investors including Silver Lake are considering taking EA private in a $50 billion deal. Now, that could make it the largest leveraged buyout deal ever. Saudi Arabia's public investment fund and

Jared Kushner's affinity partners also potentially among those investors. You can see shares finished up 15% today. Huh. It's in the game. Well, now senior market's commentator, Mike and Tully joins us for a look at a softening cyclical sector. Yeah, a couple of them, John. They did actually firm up today. This would be consumer discretionary as well as industrials. But you see they had this trend of at least keeping pace with the tech-driven S&P 500 for most of the last year. And now they've slipped below that.

And it's a little bit of static in the story here. By the way, these are the equal-weighted versions of the consumer discretionary and industrial sector, using that because the other consumer discretionary sector is just Amazon and Tesla. for the most part. So you see it's a little bit of a complication to the story that, hey, the stock market is telling us that we might be in for an economic reacceleration. It could just be, obviously, a little bit of a cooling off. But it's something to keep an eye on today. Although, as I said, they did rally on that personal income spending data this morning. Take a look here at where the strength within industrials has largely been coming from.

The middle line here, the XLI, is the broad industrial sector. Doing very well. But it's really The ITA, that's aerospace and defense, that has been one of the huge upside drivers, also names like Uber, which happen to be in transport, is actually the lagging piece of this. So I would argue it's a static economic picture you're getting from the sector work, which suggests to me that there's a bunch of themes, very discrete themes that seem to be carrying the market and the rest of it that are just more economically geared. It's kind of falling by the wayside. If we go back to chart number one, I was looking over the length of it. trying to figure out if there was ever a time when that green line had gotten so far above the others, at least on the, and there wasn't. Not for this time span.

Not for this particular time spend, but do you happen to know when the last time was that there was that kind of a... I mean, see, in 2022, when we had a full-on bare market in the overall market, the cyclical sectors did suffer more, but also big tech suffered more. So I think this is the problem with the S&P 500. So there you have it. You see especially industrials have been the big outperformer. Consumer has been slower to come back over the longer period of time.

So this is going back five years. And so it's industrials. And again, it's where is it industrials? It's in the aerospace and defense plus now all the grid and kind of AI adjacent power names that are working. Gotcha. Mike, thanks. Yeah, secular growth stories, both of those. We'll see you later this hour.

Mike Santoli. Thank you. It's time now for a CNBC News Update with McKenzie Sagalos. Mac. Hey, Morgan. So President Trump told Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky that he was open to providing Ukraine with long-range missiles. That's according to the Wall Street Journal, which says President Trump wasn't opposed to the idea of Ukraine using the weapons to force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to make a peace deal, but didn't make any commitments. Now, earlier today, Axios reported Zelensky specifically requested Tomahawk missiles. The National Hurricane

Center is monitoring a new storm brewing near Hurricane Umberto in the Umberto and the Uxios. Atlantic. This storm, currently called AL-94, could be influenced by Umberto because of a phenomenon called the Fujiwara effect when two storms get close enough to each other to influence their track and strength. Current projections show the new storm could hit the Carolinas early next week. And the NFL is expanding its partnership with Brazil. The league announced a commitment to play a minimum of three regular season games in Rio beginning next season. Back to you, John. All right. Mackenzie, thank you. Well, coming up, the market snap. a three-week winning streak and the hottest AI names pulled back the most. Are we seeing a

reversal in that trade? And speaking of hot stocks cooling off, iron. It's up 500% in six months, but it's down today after a downgrade. The company's CEO is going to join us. That's coming up. Welcome back to overtime. Gains across the board for the markets today. The Dow closing higher by 300 points. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both up right around half a percent. All those major averages had been down three days in a row before that. But that's not enough to wipe out the week's losses. The Dow lower, but only slightly, bigger losses for the NASDAQ down about two-thirds of 1%. Well, the tech retreat coming as the narrative on AI faces some questions. One example is Oracle. That stock was down for a fourth straight day. It closed the week

8% lower. I'll close another example of the AI rethink, the nuclear stock. It's had a big run, but fell nearly 20% this week. Despite the recent weakness, in AI names, our next guest, cites the AI trade as a reason to stick with U.S. equities. Joining us now is HSBC chief investment officer Jose Rasko. Jose, happy Friday. So I guess a big question perhaps on investors' minds is, why isn't this AI run like the dot-com run before? Yes, the internet was ultimately a big deal, but we had to go through this cycle of doubt

that actually took down quite a bit of the market. Look, you're absolutely right, John. And as you can see by my hairline, I'm old enough to remember that. So I think if you look back in the 90s, I would equate the first gen of, you know, generative AI is sort of like putting the phone, the modem together with the computer. We're at that level. I think the next evolution of AI, where it's going, and if you look at all the things that are coming in terms of working with industry and working directly doing joint best,

with clients and helping them become more productive, that really is the future of this trade from our perspective. It's not just an AI input trade. It's more about the broader tech sector and what is going on in the broader economy and how does this create a broader market rally. That's really our perspective. So I started the week with Jensen Wong and Sam Altman at NVIDIA headquarters announcing this huge investment of potentially up to $100 billion from NVIDIA into Open AI very much about the promise of the future, how this infrastructure investment would lead to all of these breakthroughs and discoveries, but is so much of that priced into so much of the market right now that there's not room for error that will correct

dramatically if there's a hiccup. Well, and, you know, you and I've been talking about this for a while. I think if you look at the market now, growth has exceeded value for quite a while. And this bull market from the early April to now has been led by growth. It's been led by the Mag 7 and led by tech. And we think we need to see that broad now. So we think we're at the beginning of a recalibration of equities here. And given what could happen with the government shut down next week, we think we'll see a bit of a recalibration in terms of growth value, you know, the Mag 7 versus the forgotten 493. Don't forget, earnings for the Mag 7 are about to slow. Beginning in Q3 through the end of the fourth quarter next year, earnings are going to

slow from 23 to 15% for the Mag 7, but it's the forgotten 493. That's where we need to focus, is these are the companies that are going to benefit from Gen AI, the adoption of Gen AI, and the next level of that, as well as pretty straightforward comps that they should be able to beat. And I think that's where we're going to see the earnings explosion, which is from 4% in Q3 of this year to 15% in the fourth quarter of next year. So that's our bet is the market rally broadens out from here. How much does that bet also hinge on the economy remaining strong or resilient or at least not tipping into recession?

Yeah, that is one of the key elements, no question about it. But I think if you look at where we are, the Fed just began a new easing cycle, right? And our perspective is that we think they're going to ease two more times here in Q4 in October and December. And the market is sort of locked into that as well. If you look at the SEP, the summary of economic projections from the FOMC meeting, that's what they told us, Morgan. They're going to ease twice more this year, probably. And the labor markets have cooled enough to allow them to do it. Now, remember, on the inflation side, the Fed is battling higher year-over-year inflation.

If you look at the month-over-month numbers, far tamer than they were last year, that gives the Fed some room to ease. And we still have the secular deflation from tech that has not really kicked in yet. But the other thing that they need to take into account is the fact that that 2% symmetric rate they're looking for may be tougher to achieve. If you look at the FDI that we've received in this country from 2018 to now, we're number one in the world in terms of receiving dollars and receiving assets, right? That's tremendous, but too many dollars chasing the same goods, you know, that it may be tougher to get inflation to where they want it, but I think they would be very happy with a number in the two to two and a half percent rate. range. Yeah. Look at third quarter growth, 3.9% according to the Atlanta Fed. Yeah. Well, and that sort of leads me to my next question for you, Jose, and that is, and we don't talk about it enough, but M2, money supply. What is that signaling right now? Well, look, and if you look at the

graph of money supply from, you know, 1940s, 1950s to now, it was sort of a straight line looking similar to the S&P. If you look at what happened after 2020 and then after COVID, we've seen some real ramp ups in M2. And part of that is definitely the FDI that's come into the economy. So that foreign direct investment comes in the form of capital, which is great because it's going to help us create new jobs, create new factories, and all the wonderful things we're talking about. That's great for future growth. In the current environment, though, we have to realize that there are more dollars in circulation here, and that is going to result in some competition for the goods and services that are produced here. So, you know, that two, that two

percent target, symmetric target, is a great idea, but you need to see that AI productivity and that tech deflation kick in to get anywhere clear near that, we think. Okay, sounds good. Also sounds like that's part of the bull case for industrials, which have had a strong run. Jose Rasko, thank you. Thank you. Have a great weekend. You too.

Up next, the CEO of Iron. This is stock that's up sixfold in the last six months. Find out why he's shifting the company from being a Bitcoin mine. to an AI cloud, an infrastructure provider. Plus, Nike is the big name on next week's earnings calendar. Coming up, we'll look at whether those results can help turn the struggling stock around and shed more light on the outlook for consumer spending. We'll be right back.

Welcome back to overtime. Investors keep Lovin, shares of App Lovin. The stocks rallying after Piper Sandler raised its price target to 500, sorry, from 500 to 740 a share. UBS raised its target from 540 to 810. both firms citing the growth potential of App Loven's coming AI-powered Axon Ads Manager platform. The stock has had a stellar year. It has more than doubled. All right. Well, turning to another high-flying stock, Iron. Shares are under pressure today, or they were, but up six-fold in six months.

The company owns and operates huge data centers that are run on renewable energy. This is a huge growth area amid the quest for more AI compute capacity. Iron is also a minor of Bitcoin and other things that involve heavy-duty companies. Compute powers. So joining us now right here on set is Dan Roberts, Iron, co-CEO and co-founder. It's great to have you back on set. Great to be here. So let's start with that because this has been the big talking point. We've had a big week with lots of news and lots of AI deals announced.

Where do you play in the space? How quickly is it growing? Super quickly. We can't meet the demand fast enough. And at the heart of it is these AI factories that are delivering compute to hypers, AI labs, inference, training, enterprise. Yeah. So does this put you in competition with the core weaves and oracles of the world, or should we think about it differently? Look, it's very similar. It's providing AI cloud compute to end customers. The key advantage we've got is we've got the data centers. We've got the power and land today. We are actively installing these GPUs every day at the moment to meet the demand.

It's interesting because we've been having these debates about, okay, maybe we're capacity constraints now, but a couple years down the road, does this swing from boom to bust, the cyclical nature, I guess? questions around possible cyclical nature around this. But what does that mean for Iron when you are vertically integrated and you do have these data centers that basically started as Bitcoin miners are now being adjusted? Yeah, it's the same data center that was built for multi-purpose. So over the last seven years, we have accumulated three gigawatts of powered land. Today, we've contracted for 23,000 GPUs that will deliver around 500 million in annualized revenue. That's less than 2% of our overall footprint. So big numbers. But as we discussed last on the program, it's still a drop in the ocean compared to what is required over the coming

years. One of the U.S. investment banks forecast in a shortfall over the next three years of 44 gigawatts. McKinsey is forecasting an additional 100 gigawatts of data center capacity by 2030. They're big numbers. How big are your advantages on power? I mean, you're located near some hydro, if I recall. So what kind of operating efficiencies does that give you? So we've been 100% renewables since inception, wind, solar, hydro. But the key distinction here is we don't take generation risk on renewables. That's the job of the utility. So we connect into these high voltage transmission networks.

They guarantee us 24-7 reliable renewable energy. So what happens in the medium term once, say, the hypers get more of their capacity online? Is there a co-location play that you expect to happen for this AI? infrastructure as well, or do they become more competitors of yours and compete on price? Look, everyone's trying to do everything right now. If you speak to the hyperscalis, I think they're open to co-location, they're open to AI cloud. The reality is the industry just can't get enough capacity at the moment. So we did look at co-location, but as now, we are focused on AI cloud. We are moving up in the value chain, capturing more of the economics by

providing that compute and building relationships directly within customers like AWS. So are you all in then on AI right now? Are you still involved in Bitcoin mining and other types of heavy compute? Look, Bitcoin was great. It bootstrapped the business. Today, it's delivering about a billion dollars of annualized revenue. So it's certainly not worth scoffing at. But the future is AI. As I mentioned, less than 2% of our power is capable of generating $500 million of annualized revenue. The outlook for growth in AI and servicing this market is How long does it take you to change over a facility from one use case to a different one, considering the equipment and the labor? Look, we posted a video on Twitter this morning showing live time people swapping out racks of ASICs, which are used for Bitcoin mining, and just wheeling in the servers of the Nvidia racks.

So as quickly as we can get the labor there, as quickly as we can get the chips there, we're installing them and making that capacity available. So in terms of future sites, places that you're building, what should we be watching? Well, look, as I said, we've got three gigawatts secured today, but we've also got a multi-gigawatt pipeline that we've also spent a large part of the seven years building. So, look, the near-term growth is there, but also longer term, we're pretty excited. Have you been surprised by the monster move in your stock this year? Oh, look, it's been interesting, but I think when you look at the growth and you look at how quickly we can scale up this cloud business, we feel supported by investors. We've raised a lot of funding over the last few months, and I think they're recognizing the scale of growth and how quickly we can. Okay. Dan Roberts of Irin. Great to have you here on set.

Thanks, Morgan. Well, still ahead, what's at stake for the markets and your money when the September jobs report is released next week. Plus, the other key events that need to be on your investment radar. And check out shares of intercontinental hotels, which are surging after J.P. Morgan double upgraded the owner of the Holiday Inn and Kempton brands to overweight from underweight, citing superior earnings, and defensive business model compared to its rivals, up almost 5%. Welcome back to overtime. Boeing shares flying high after the FAA said Boeing will once again be allowed to certify certain 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner planes before customers receive deliveries. Boeing has been unable to sign off on the safety of its own planes for several years following a pair of deadly crashes and other production problems.

Well, now let's bring back. back Mike Santoli for a picture of government employment as we head into a likely government shutdown and a looming jobs report. Mike. Yes, Morgan, so one of the subplots of next week's planned jobs report was that it was when you were going to start to see the government worker declines in the numbers, right? You had all these furloughs and some of the actual job reductions were going to show up. In fact, private payrolls are projected to be up 75,000. Total payrolls 45,000. So here's a look, B of A put together of payrolls in general, exempting the D.C. metro area. That's the, the blue line is X the D.C. area. And of course, the orange line is the trend line

for D.C. employment. So it's not just people who actually work for the federal government, obviously contractors and related workers. Now take a look at total cost of employee compensation for basically non-military. So it's non-defense employees total. and then civilian defense employees. I just want to show it as the trend going down. Now, it should go down, right, because the economy grows over time. This is as a percentage of GDP. The economy grows over time.

You know, hopefully, you know, what you're actually paying for a relatively static civilian workforce shouldn't go up very much. But to the degree that there is, you know, this kind of structural deficit problem, it's not so much about salaries of people who work for the government. It's obviously the outlays on entitlements and all the other support programs as well as defense, as you know, more. So that's part of the mix as we get maybe numbers next Friday. Yeah, and of course, this is one to watch.

Obviously, we had OMB director, Russ Vaugh, come out and basically say maybe he's going to start laying off workers in a more permanent way. So that adds another piece to the puzzle at a time when typically, historically, because you've seen a number of these now, government shutdowns are something the market usually shrugs off. Yes, because you essentially have, in aggregate over time, the numbers just kind of offset one another. So you have this hiatus, people don't work, they get furloughed.

But when the government reopens, they normally get. back pay and all the dollar values kind of stay the same. Yes, if there are permanent reductions, I mean, they're throwing out numbers like 800,000, who knows if that's possible. But it is something to keep an eye on in terms of, it's clearly an objective to get the government workforce down. The other thing to keep in mind, by the way, state and local, dwarfs federal in terms of total public employees. It's like, I don't know, eight or ten times higher. So quickly, in terms of volatility, not just Washington next week. It's also the end of the quarter. How do we factor that in? At the end of the quarter, in theory, there's

kind of rebalancing flows potentially out of stocks. You might have seen some of that already, though. We only have two days left in the quarter. So, I mean, seasonally, you should expect some chop or not be surprised by it if we get it. But it doesn't seem as if there's some kind of, you know, massive flight about to happen due to the end of the quarter. Okay. Mike Santoli. Thank you. Now, boat shoes. Investors will get more insight into the consumer when Nike and Carnival report earnings next week. We'll tell you what to expect straight ahead.

And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the closing bell overtime. on your favorite podcast app. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get you set up for next week's trade. On Monday, we will get earnings from Carnival as well as pending home sales data. Tuesday brings Nike and Lamb Weston earnings. On the data front, we will get the latest from Kay Schiller Home Price Index, consumer confidence, and job openings, and a labor turnover survey, aka joltz. Cal Maine Foods results will be out on Wednesday along with monthly auto sales and the ADP employment, also ISM Manufacturing Report.

Thursday features weekly jobless claims and factory orders, and then the September Jobs Report and ISM services close out the week on Friday. Well, our next guest has the most important catalyst he sees for investors next week. Joining us now as Vital Knowledge founder, Adam, Chris LaFoulli. Adam, with the big jobs report at the end of the week, what can possibly get the market's attention before that? Well, we have a few events before then. The ISMs are going to be interesting.

give you kind of a good first look at the month of September, and those will not be impacted by the shutdown, so we'll definitely have those in hand. And then a few earnings reports, like you said, Carnival on Monday, Nike also was going to be very important on Tuesday. But I think the jobs report is really, assuming we get it, I think the jobs report's going to be the most important event of the week. Given the questions about the shutdown and given the revisions that we've had in the labor numbers recently, does ADP perhaps take on more importance than it has in recent history when people kind of shrugged it off because it didn't line up with the official federal numbers. Yeah, and that's a good point. I definitely think that given some of the

uncertainty around government statistics and investors are seeking kind of alternative sources of information, ADP is a great one. You know, it is a very robust survey of the private employment landscape. And so I do think that's going to take on more importance now, you know, as we go forward. So, yeah, the ADP on Wednesday will be critical to. I mean, we've got more tariff news today, more announcements, Section 232, and of course everybody is focused on the Supreme Court decision or, I guess, hearings ahead of a Supreme Court's decision for AEPA as well. How to factor that into the investment thesis here? Yeah, so I think the White House is kind of undergoing a strategy now of announcing more 232 investigations and 232 tariffs as they look to put their trade agenda on a sturdier legal foundation. As you like you mentioned, the AEPA tariffs come under scrutiny. I think the assumption is that the Supreme Court will probably strike down the AEPa tariffs, in which case then it's going to be the burden is going to shift onto these 232 tariffs.

It just creates a lot more uncertainty for corporate America. the ones last night didn't have a huge impact on markets today. If anything, I think there was a lot of relief around the details of the pharmaceutical tariffs. But it definitely means more uncertainty for markets. And I think, you know, the implications for treasuries are going to be very interesting. The Aipa tariffs are bringing in a healthy chunk of revenue right now. And if those were to go away and the Treasury has to issue refunds, that could place upward pressure on yields. And that's something that stocks will be watching closely.

Yeah, something else I don't think we've talked about enough has been energy. Energy stocks were the best performing sector in the S&P this week. We saw a move higher in crude oil. All of this, much of this, tied to a shift in tone and rhetoric from President Trump towards Russia and the war in Ukraine as well. So are geopolitics here percolating in the background? Should folks be paying a little more attention? Yeah, definitely.

You know, you did see an impact on oil prices. You know, there was a report out about how OPEC does. And then you also did have this very aggressive pivot in Trump's approach. to Ukraine, there was a report out today about how the White has just considering giving longer-range missiles to Ukraine so it could launch deeper strikes in Russia. So, you know, definitely that creates upside risk. And oil, you also had big copper news this week as well. So upper pressure on commodity prices does impact the outlet for inflation. Adam, I'm thinking about job openings, the Joltz survey, if there are higher job openings, perhaps, than expected or the higher end of the range,

Do you think we see more doubt about whether we get a steady drumbeat of rate cuts from the Fed? And would that perhaps affect the market, especially small caps? Yeah, I definitely think that was a big theme this week in the market, especially yesterday where you had some hot numbers in the morning with the weekly claims and the upward revision on Q2 GDP. So you had investors kind of questioning whether the Fed will be as aggressive as was anticipated cutting at the last two meetings of the year. So if we do get, you know, a hot jolts number we get a hot jobs number on Friday, you know, the Fed could easily skip October or cut in October and suggest we're not going to move in December and kind of go on an extended holding pattern. So there's definitely more anxiety on that front, which is why the risk is probably, you know, I think a very strong job report would probably be negative for the market at this point, just placing upper pressure and yield and pushing Fed expectations out. Okay. Adam Chris Foley. Thank you. We've got some breaking news in the last few minutes.

Next Star says that it is going to bring back Jimmy Kimmel live tonight. Earlier this afternoon, Sinclair also said it would bring the show back to its ABC stations. So we will continue to monitor that dynamic because it's been very busy on that landscape, the media landscape this week, too. A little bit of a catch-up trade on Jimmy Kimmel. I mean, it's pretty remarkable, not just the ratings on his return after that interruption, but also the digital traffic to his monologues. So one wonders whether the opposition that he faced didn't provide a bit of that, you know, bad publicity that perhaps turns into good publicity over time. Yeah, I guess we'll have to see. I mean, Julia Boistern's reported on this, too, the fact that maybe the late night shows are losing money, but the digital platforms are making it and offsetting that dynamic.

So we'll see how all of that continues to play out. Stocks finish the day higher. They're lower on the week, and that's going to do it for us here at overtime.