Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Robinhood CEO On Trump Accounts Proposal; Apple’s Make-Or-Break-Moment on AI? 6/9/25

Episode Date: June 9, 2025

Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel joins to lay out what’s driving markets. As U.S.–China trade talks resume in London, Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Rep and now with the Council on Foreign Relations, weighs in on what’s at stake. Our Eunice Yoon explores China’s EV market on the ground. Plus, Apple’s WWDC with CNBC’s Steve Kovach and Maxim Group’s Tom Forte. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev details his White House visit and the progress of Trump accounts. Aon CEO Greg Case on the company’s investor day, promise of AI and global volatility. 

That bell marks the end of regulation. CSW Industrial is ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Bernstein Private Wealth Management and the Alliance Bernstein ETF team doing the honors at the NASDAQ. Here are your highlights for today. Stocks ending the day higher. The Dow began the day down nearly 200 points

before recovering. A volatile session for Apple closing the day in the red as its Worldwide Developer Conference brought few surprises. We'll have more on that ahead. The Semi is moving higher today with Arm, Corvo and On Semi leading the way. Bank of America lifting their price target on Arm and On Semi. Meanwhile, AMD getting a price hike at Citigroup. Tesla in the spotlight for two downgrades, Baird and Argus both go to neutral.

Despite that though, the stock closing higher. Another green day for CoreWeave, turning shorts into basket cases, soaring nearly 15%. Stock's up 44% this month, and some names hitting all-time highs today. Darden, Johnson Controls, JVIL, Seagate, and IBM. That is the scorecard on Wall Street, but winners stay late. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime.

I'm John Fort. Morgan Brennan is off today. Shares of Robinhood down 5% after the S&P didn't add it to the index, but the stock has still doubled since the early April lows. Coming up later in the show, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev live from the White House after an event touting a federally funded

savings account for children that's tucked into the House budget bill. Let's turn now to the markets. Russell 2000 has underperformed over the last six months, down 10% on tariff-driven uncertainty, but it's outperforming this month, up more than 4%. Our next guest says, now it's time to buy small caps. He joins us with some under-the-radar names

that should be on your list. Let's bring in Evacuar ISI Senior Managing Director, Julian Emanuel. Julian, welcome. I mean, Russell 2000's down 2% year to date, S&P's up three and a half. Tariffs could be a bigger risk for smaller companies, Julian, welcome. I mean, Russell 2000 is down 2% year to date, S&P is up three and a half. Tariffs could be a bigger risk for smaller companies,

so why buy them here? So it is, John, really a case of so bad it's good. What we did is we looked back over 30 years of data and when small cap stocks have underperformed in the first five months of the year to the degree that they've underperformed large caps, what you tend to get is a very vigorous bounce in June. And that happens to coincide with the annual Russell indices rebalance this year on June

the 27th. So we think that there's lots of reasons, particularly given the fact that when you think about small cap stocks, they are price takers, not price makers, and all of the uncertainty around tariffs, which obviously there's a long way to go between here and deals getting inked, but there's an expectation that we are approaching a landing area. This is a positive in terms of expectations for small cap stocks. If I'm investing at home though,

I'm wondering, does historical seasonality even matter in 2025 when you got these 90 day tariff windows, you got whatever effect there's been on pull forward on imports, you got the questions about the consumers credit situation in the back half of the year. I mean, how does all of that change

what normally happens in June and beyond? Well, it certainly complicates what, if you look at this year, has been an extraordinarily complicated picture to begin with. But we would argue pretty vehemently that the lows that we saw in April were the end of the bear market,

and clearly you've had a very strong rally since. But when you think about where we're going in terms of policy and in terms of the idea that a recession has largely been taken off the table, although we may get weaker payrolls data, which actually counterintuitively is better for small cap stocks because their labor input costs are higher than a larger cap stock. And then, of course, inflation data, which basically argues for reasonably robust pricing power, all of that conspire to be tailwinds for small caps. Some of the names you have here, Centris Energy, Cohen and Steers, Rambus, Sprouts, TG Therapeutics,

any theme running through those? Really, the only theme that we would cite is that basically when investors look at these companies, the pace of earnings revisions is high. So essentially, these companies are going to continue to sort of the bar, they are raising their own bar relative to their peers in terms of earnings trajectories. And frankly, in an environment of this kind of uncertainty, you want a company that's expected to raise its earnings, you know, really quarter after quarter and the positive trend

of those expectations. Is there a pivot moment coming later this year, either end of summer, early fall, where things have not played out the way you expect in this thesis, it's time to revisit? There certainly could be. And when you look at the broad market in general, particularly at the S&P 500,

you're trading over 23 times our estimate for 2025. So there is an argument that if there's difficulty in getting policy over the line, that this bull market, which we would argue is the resumption of a structural AI-driven bull market that started in 2022, was interrupted by this couple of months of sell-off and has resumed, but you could argue that there is a likely pause in here while markets digest the potential for policy going forward prior to what we would expect would be new highs later this year or in 2026. Okay, until then you'll look for some buys.

Julian Emanuel, thank you. Thank you. Now let's bring in senior markets commentator Mike Santoli taking a look at what the recent leadership in cyclical stocks says about investors' economic sentiment. Mike? Yeah, John, it has been revived, let's say, at least based on the market's message here. Cyclical stocks relative to defensives, it's one of those key relationships you wanna keep an eye on.

It has come way off the lows from early April. Now it's definitely down from the late 2024, that fourth quarter rally really was all about people assuming we're gonna have an economic acceleration, the old kind of Trump trade 2.0 got people in cyclicals. We're not up at that peak. So clearly we have to keep an eye on whether you

can keep the strength of it also say the outright weakness in things like health care in the last few months probably is dragging on defensive than is flattering this relationship of cyclicals over defenses a little bit but nonetheless you'd say

this is a somewhat reassuring message that investors are considering. The economy to be resilient enough to own those cyclical stocks earnings are going in the right direction now you'd say this is a somewhat reassuring message that investors are considering the economy to be resilient enough to own those cyclical stocks. Earnings are going in the right direction. Now, in the shorter term, economic surprises have started to soften up. This is obviously the City-US Economic Surprise Index,

so it just shows our economic data points coming in better or worse than forecast. And you see it just rolled over below zero again. Not certainly to a desperate level. We've been worse recently, but it just shows you there's been some moderation in some of the macro indicators. A lot of that might be the ISMs, which kind of qualify as soft survey-based data. But you have to keep an eye on it because the acclamation on Friday was, hey, this is

a good and reassuring jobs number. Maybe it wasn't quite as strong under the surface and you've had some negative revisions. So I still think maybe the leash on the economy might be, should be shorter than many investors are so far using right now. Mike, how should investors analyze cyclicals differently in this 2025 environment, given these are, you know,

economically sensitive stocks and consumer discretionary is in there as is Energy as is so it's some stuff that's really terror sensitive and some stuff that's seen as being particularly less terror sensitive Yes, some of it is I would say within cyclicals one of the things that jumps out is that industrials industrial conglomerates? But that also includes defense companies which aren't that cyclical are actually working really well and doing more than their share to keep this elevated consumer discretionary on a kind of across the board basis actually is doing okay but it's not keeping up with industrial so there's below the surface there is a little bit of concern i think the one thing you can say that's redeeming about energy is that it's such a small part of the overall market right now that it's not going to make or break your portfolio.

So even if you you know, you sort of are relying on it for cyclical attributes, it's not really going to hurt you that much. Is there much out there about needing to investors need to revisit the baskets that they have stocks in. I imagine that those baskets might not have things moving, again, in 2025, the way they do in a typical year, either together or apart. Yeah, I mean, look, I think it always makes sense to scrutinize, it's kind of a know what you own type of a game here, and you know, you talk about consumer discretionary.

Well, Tesla and Amazon whipped that sector around so much that it almost doesn't make sense to look at it on a market cap weighted basis. And those aren't really particularly cyclical. They kind of operate on their own dynamics. So I don't know that it's a 2025 problem necessarily, because I do think a decelerating economy, which is what we had in the fourth and first quarter, has so far remained above stall speed. So that's why you can say that the cyclicals have behaved roughly as you might expect. Although the Fed being a wild card in here, a wait and see Fed is only something that investors can deal with if in fact the underlying economy does not give way. All right, Mike, thanks you again in just a little bit. Well, several potentially market moving events taking place today. First, Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference kicking off. You can see the stock took a dip when the event started

and stayed down. We will get an analyst take on what Apple announced and what it means for the stock. 5,000 miles from Cupertino, U.S. and Chinese officials meeting in London. Stocks have had a huge run from the April lows. Will these trade talks continue that trend or derail the rally?

We'll look when Overt overtime's back in two. Welcome back to overtime. Shares of Warner Brothers Discovery falling 3% today as the company announces plans to split into a streaming and studios division, which will include HBO, Warner Brothers Studio, and DC, and a global networks division, which will include CNN, TNT Sports, and Discovery,

among other pieces. While officials from the US and China meeting for trade talks in London today aiming to cement maybe a bit of a truce, US negotiators included Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce's Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jameson Greer. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett telling CNBC that he expected today to be a quote,

short meeting with a big strong handshake, unquote. Joining me now is a former US trade representative, Ambassador Michael Froman, currently president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Michael, good to see you. So it looks like the areas that might see the first wiggles are the rare earths on China's side and the chips on the US side, but those are areas of recent escalation.

So will that really get us progress? Well, the fact that they are talking and continuing to talk tomorrow is positive. And to the degree that they reach any agreement that deescalates the tension between the two, I think that that is positive. Particularly China has discovered that it has leverage over the United States by using the rare earths and other critical minerals that it controls to turn on and off the spigot. The US has responded to that.

The question will be whether the US, which put on additional export controls in the name of national security, we said we needed them in order to preserve our national security, whether we're willing to trade that off against other interests like access to critical minerals that feed into a number of other products, clean energy products and the like, so batteries, et cetera. It's good that they're talking. It's still unclear what's going to come out of the talks and whether we're right back to where we were perhaps two weeks ago or whether this also sets us on a path or some broader agreement down the road.

Well, how much economic hardship do you think China is willing to take on right now given that their economy has not been in the best position over the past several quarters? Well, they have seen their exports to the United States fall precipitously, something like 30 or 35%. So it is a significant hit to their economy. But my sense is that they've got other options available to them. They're trying to dump their products on other markets. They're developing other economic and trade relationships

and other partnerships and trade agreements and the like. And of course, they would like to see this deescalated, but they want to make sure that they can maintain what they view as their economic strategy toward trying to achieve significance and dominance in a number of key sectors. There was some talk that with the court challenges to the Trump administration's tariff approach,

other countries might take more of a wait and see attitude towards striking deals. How pivotal will progress or not between the U.S. and China here be to the speed of those other deals getting done, you think? I think it depends on the nature of the deal. The Trump administration did sign a deal with the U.K. and others looked very hard at that deal. You know, I think in terms of the courts, John, yes, this particular authority that the president

used has been challenged, and the challenge may be upheld or may be overruled by an appellate court, but the president has a lot of other authorities. They take a little bit more time, more process, but he has certainly signified, signaled that he is going to raise tariffs and use tariffs as a key tool. I think other countries would do well to take that seriously and not to raise tariffs and use tariffs as a key tool, I think other countries would do well to take that seriously and not to try and second-guess the process and sit down and try and negotiate. Who do you think, what country out there is feeling like they've got the most running

room now, perhaps better positioned with the pressure that's happening that the Trump administration is putting on China, the EU perhaps? Yeah, I think the EU, which has been reluctant to sit down or hopeful that the administration would agree to eliminate all tariffs on a reciprocal basis, which was never in the cards. I think they probably feel like they've got to assess where they are vis-a-vis China, vis-a-vis the UK, vis-a-vis the president's challenge on authorities in the courts, but ultimately they'll have to sit down and negotiate a deal with the US. All right. Ambassador Brumman, thanks for joining me here on Overtime.

Up next, sticking with China, EV prices, they are coming way down. Why are those companies cutting prices? And could it lead to a bigger problem? What could it mean for Tesla? Plus, President Trump wants to give every new baby a thousand dollars to invest. Robin Hood's CEO Vlad Tenev is at the White House for that conversation. He's going to join us ahead. And Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. saying he will remove all 17

members of the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices, saying the step was taken so the Trump administration could appoint new members. Vaccine related stocks are falling after hours. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. Shares of Tesla have lost nearly a quarter of their value this year. Some of that's the fallout from Elon Musk political activities, but there's also a less talked about reason.

That's a sales decline in China. May was the eighth straight month its China-made vehicle sales fell. Now this comes as rivals there, including BYD, have been cutting prices, leading to what some fear will be a price war that hurts everybody. Eunice Yun is looking at what that means in this week's China Lens.

Fears are growing in China that its EV industry China lens. Fears are growing in China that its EV industry is in a race to the bottom. Outside of China, this country is often accused by its trading partners of flooding markets with cheap Chinese EVs. These days, similar accusations are flying within China about China, raising concerns about financial stress in the industry. The company drawing the most fire is China's market leader, BYD.

BYD slashes prices by as much as 34%. This mini hatchback, the Seagull, now costs only $7700. The intense price war has sparked high-profile auto executives to sound the alarm, with the head of Great Wall Motor calling the industry unhealthy. In a local media interview in late May, Chairman Wei Jianjun drew parallels to China's moribund property sector and its now-defunct poster child, developer Evergrande.

An Evergrande-like crisis already exists in the automotive industry, he says. It just hasn't erupted yet. Great Wall's dealerships are feeling the pricing pressure too. This dealership is offering up to 20% off on some of its new energy vehicles. A government-backed industry group

has since called on companies not to dump vehicles below cost and took a shot at BYD for creating a price war panic. BYD has dismissed Ways' comment as alarmist and says it believes in fair competition. Even so, sellers at this used car market see another sign of strain. The authorities are looking into a phenomenon known as zero mileage used cars. This is when cars are registered and plated

and then marked as sold, but they haven't ever been driven. Sellers told us the tactic is meant to help car companies and dealers inflate sales volumes. Used car salesman, Ma Hui, is worried where all the competition leads. All of us were losing money last year, he says. There are too many companies making too many new energy cars.

And today the official Communist Party paper, The People's Daily, called for an end to the bruising price war, saying that it leads to nowhere. John? Eunice, that it leads to nowhere. John? Eunice, this is fascinating to me. 25 years ago, we had a PC price war in the US, but PCs are a lot cheaper than cars. There must be some perverse economic incentives happening over there for this to happen.

Is it the push to keep workers employed? Is it some kind of local incentive, too much capital? What? Both of those things. Is it some kind of local incentive, too much capital? What? Both of those things. The incentives are from, I think, outside of the country. A lot of people would say the incentives are distorted because a lot of these car makers are backed by local governments.

So these local governments provide financial support. They see these car makers as a point of local pride. They employ people. So because of that, rather than allow some of these carmakers to go under, they allow those carmakers to turn to the global markets. And so that's one of the reasons why you see a lot of the criticism that these Chinese carmakers are overproducing and pushing a lot of their product out internationally.

In addition to that, when you're talking about incentives, BYD is following a pattern that we see quite often here for the Chinese business model, whereas BYD will slash prices or these Chinese companies will slash prices to gain market share because unlike in the United States, they don't have the angry shareholders. They don't have to worry about what the market says. And so at the end of the day, they're able to not think about profits as much as other companies would outside of the country. All right. Over there, like over here, eventually somebody's got to pay the piper though.

Fascinating. Once again, Eunice Yoon, thank you. Let's get a news update now with Bertha Coombs. Bertha. John, California Governor Gavin Newsom has sued the Trump administration today over deploying the National Guard in Los Angeles in response to widespread protests over federal immigration raids. The move comes as the president suggested Newsom should be arrested for obstruction.

Newsom said Trump's remarks were a quote unmistakable step forward toward authoritarianism. A dire warning for the head from the for the head of NATO today as the organization urges its European allies to make a quote quantum leap in military spending to Russia. NATO's Secretary General Mark Ruff called today called for a 400% increase in Europe's air and missile defense budget saying unless spending is increased quote you better learn to speak Russian. And author Frederick Fors Forsythe, has died. The novelist responsible for such hits as spy thriller The Day of the Jackal, The Odessa File, and The Dogs of War sold more than 75 million copies worldwide. Forsythe was a former journalist who worked for England's MI6 spy service during the Cold

War. According to his literary rep, he died at his home in England after a short illness. He was 86 years old. John? Bertha, thank you. Apple shares falling again today. It's the second worst stock in the mag seven this year. Can anything Tim Cook and friends unveiled at WWDC reverse this stock's downtrend?

Meanwhile, its rival Microsoft soaring to an all-time high today. That stock is up eight sessions in a row and the chart hitting a bullish golden cross pattern. 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. We've got a news alert on the debt ceiling out of Washington. Emily Wilkins has the story. Emily?

Hey, John. Well, we have now an updated projection of when the U.S. is going to hit the debt ceiling and no longer be able to get all of its obligations paid on time. The Congressional Budget Office now estimating that that date will come sometime between mid-August and the end of September. Now, this gives lawmakers a little more breathing room to pass Trump's mega bill. Remember, that includes an increase to the debt ceiling. Of course, we'll have to wait for the final bill to see exactly how much, but it gives

them just a little more wiggle room as they work through some of the nuances in the tax pieces. And certainly there is plenty for the Senate to work through and the House to work through in the upcoming weeks. Yeah, a lot of wiggling. So they need the room. Emily, thank you. Well, Apple is lower after the company's 2025 Worldwide Developer Conference keynote.

Their execs unveiled the first major operating system redesign since 2013, calling the new look Liquid Glass. The stock has been hit hard this year, underperforming peers like Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia. So let's bring in Maxim Group Managing Director, Tom Forte, and our own Steve Kovac, who's there on site in Cupertino. Tom, very often there's kind of a collective yawn

after these developer conferences. We saw it out of Google I.O., the stock went down, Alphabet did, but then popped later. There were some surprises in here, not a lot, but is it enough to keep the iOS and overall Apple ecosystems going to keep developers engaged, do you think? So I appreciate your collective yawn comment.

I was thinking that it's not often that I exit a developer conference most excited about seeing a movie. In this case, Formula One looks amazing. I do think the liquid glass design is beautiful, but that's what we expect from Apple. What really disappoints me was that there was little new information on the much needed upgrade to Siri from artificial intelligence.

They basically suggested we stay tuned to later this year. So I like your collective comment, Formula One looks amazing. And I would say the liquid glass design is beautiful. So I like your collective comment. Formula One looks amazing. And I would say the liquid glass design is beautiful. Steve, as you predicted last week on overtime, it seemed like Apple was pretending that last year didn't happen. Siri barely came up, right?

Barely at all. And to Tom's point, they did mention Craig Frederica, the software boss, did mention that they need more time to work on Siri. And then, yeah, silence, no more Siri after that. There were some Apple intelligence stuff that was announced, some new features. There's some new additions to visual intelligence, which by the way, uses some of OpenAI's technology.

There's that live translation thing, nothing we haven't seen before from Google or Meta and so many other companies. But yeah, if you were coming into this event, John, hoping for some blockbuster AI announcement like we got last year, you did not get that. This is now, we're at this point where we look forward to the fall event for the next catalyst,

which would be the new iPhones, and if there's anything they can do there to move the needle. But right now, I will just say, just looking around here at Apple Park in Cupertino, we had people on the inside with all the developers. Just the reception overall was quite muted. And that's because the bar was pretty low going into today. And after failing to deliver on that AI update to Siri, John, they had to make sure everything they said today

would actually ship. And so it feels like they'll do that just a little bit Underwhelming perhaps Tom where if anywhere do you see Apple exposed right now? Competitively and I mean that to say it's different If there's a competitor out there who could steal share from Apple in crucial markets, maybe in China They've got AI features that Apple doesn't have and those have proven to be popular. But if it's just a situation where there are a bunch of people out there experimenting

and Apple's experiments aren't out yet, nobody's gaining significant traction, I'm not sure if there's real investor damage. What do you think? Well, I think there's investor damage to the extent that you've seen sustained weakness in China and heightened competitive pressure in China. If you looked at the March quarter, they had low single digit declines in revenue, which was

improvement from the double digit declines in the December quarter, but not having lived up to the Apple Intelligence hype from last year, I think is a challenge. That all said, favorable results in London in the trade talks between the US government and the Chinese government could be a massive catalyst for the stock independent of the developer conference. Steve, is there something that came out of I.O. that could threaten Apple in the fall? I don't know about threaten, but I will notice

when we're talking about competition, John, first of all, we want let's stick with Google for a second. Last year at this event, Apple executives said they were planning to incorporate Google's Gemini into their Apple intelligence product, sort of like they already did with OpenAI. That did not happen even though Google did unveil that new AI version of search that would play along. There's a lot of talk about perplexity going on into here. And I also note on the AI competitive front,

the reason we're talking about AI, the reason we're talking about Apple's take on artificial intelligence is because of OpenAI. And it's not a coincidence, John, that in very beginning of this event today, shortly after 1 p.m. Eastern, OpenAI came out with a very curiously timed announcement that said they had that $10 billion annual revenue run rate.

So they're showing, hey, we're making some generating meaningful sales here in AI. Meanwhile, Apple's gonna show you next to nothing. I think that was, obviously Apple makes a lot more money than OpenAI, but I think that was significant, little poke in the eye at the folks here at Cupertino. Yeah, a little bit, but OpenAI's losing a lot of money. I will see Steve It's losing a ton of money. Yeah. Thank you

Well Robin Hood CEO Vlad Tenev just left and invest America roundtable with President Trump at the White House He's gonna join us next in a first on CNBC interview about a new plan to invest billions in savings accounts for newborn Americans as part of that House bill. We're going to get to the stocks massive move as well. It's up 92% this year when overtime returns. Welcome back. President Trump holding a roundtable with CEOs earlier this afternoon to tout the modestly named Trump accounts investment program.

If the legislation passes for every US citizen child born between January 1st of this year and December 31st, 2028, the government will make a one-time contribution of $1,000 into an index fund account tracking the stock market. Joining me now is Robin Hood's CEO, Vlad Tenev, who's at today's event. Vlad, good to see you. So this would make, you know, when you come into the world in the U.S., at least for a

few years, you'd get a Social Security number and a brokerage account. Really change the game. What's the potential impact on Robinhood? I think the potential impact is extreme. So me personally, I had the opportunity to learn about investing, discover the stock market as a child, and you can create a through line between that and me becoming passionate about the markets, starting Robinhood, which now serves over 26 million Americans, helping them get into the stock market, many of those Americans

under the age of 40. So this would extend that. Robinhood currently serves customers 18 and over. This would extend that to every newborn child, which is about 3.7 million per year, with a brokerage account with $1,000 in it, that's passively invested in the S&P 500 and getting people to buy into the biggest American companies

and be invested being owners of our capital system from a young age. I think it's amazing. And I just got a meeting with President Trump and a bunch of other CEOs and leaders, members of Congress, all in support of this great initiative. Well, a big challenge here, isn't it, is investor education, financial education.

We don't do enough of that in this country. We certainly try to do it here on CNBC, but there's so much of the U.S. population that doesn't really own stocks, hasn't really invested the time in learning about the stock market, that becomes a real tangible issue with something like this, does it not? It does, absolutely. And what Robinhood can bring to the table here is our technology and product resources. We actually have a working demo of what this app could look like. And we had three goals really with it. Number one, obviously to build a great easy experience for adults and children eventually to manage these accounts.

Number two, illustrate the magic of compound interest and what it can do over time. But number three is actually, as you said, educate the kids and educate them not only about financial literacy but also about America and our capitalist system and actually instill a great deal of civic pride about our country and our financial system, which is the envy of the world. It's been the greatest wealth creation engine in history. So we're excited to contribute along with a number of great companies to make this

a reality. Yeah, an important engine indeed. Now on with Robinhood, what have you seen particularly over the last couple of months in retail investor behavior and appetite for risk as we've seen these dramatic market swings. Yeah, so if you look at our customers, our customers tend to be young. We do have first-time investors that have joined the platform and have grown with us, but average customer is right around the age of 35. And what you're seeing is our customers are investing in the future of technology and innovation. So they believe in electric vehicles, they believe in artificial intelligence, clean energy.

And so when they see opportunities to buy these great companies in these industries at a discount, they tend to increase their buying. And that's led to net deposits and overall activity on the platform being at or near record highs over the past few months. You recently closed the Bitstamp acquisition. I believe it's expected to add around $65 million to the expense base across the rest of the year,

what optimistically do you think it's gonna add, offerings-wise, for that young audience that you say is optimistic and growth-oriented? Yeah, well actually the last time I was here at the White House was a few months ago for the crypto summit. And I think there's two ways to look at crypto. One is as a trading asset and as a portion of your portfolio, much like

equities or options or futures. But the other is as a fundamental technology layer. And I think the second one is much more interesting. I think crypto technology is going to power the bulk of what we today consider to be traditional financial services. The markets will be powered by crypto technology. What we consider to be traditional banking and payments will all be powered. And so our acquisition of Bitstamp ensures that we're at the forefront of this by giving us a globally scaled exchange,

which is the foundation, not just of the technology behind offering these services, but also the start of a global institutional business with over 5,000 institutional customers. So we're still at the very beginning, but there's a lot to build. Look forward to tracking that with you as it develops, Vlad Tennant. Thank you. Thanks for having me up next Mike Santoli is gonna look at why history says there might be some summer storms ahead For the Bulls on Wall Street plus shares of insurance broker Aon under pressure after its investor day failed to impress investors

The company's CEO is going to join us in the first on CNBC interview coming up on overtime Welcome back to overtime. The major averages are mostly higher so far this year, but could there be storms ahead for stocks this summer? Let's bring back Mike Santoli for a look at what history is suggesting, Mike. Yeah, John, always makes sense to expect at least some storms during the summer, even if it doesn't ruin the whole season. This is the average path the S& P in P five hundred has taken over the

last 50 years just to highlight the seasonal tendencies now this is very broad we say seasonal patterns their climate not whether we are about right here in the first half of June and so you see on average you know you get a little bit of upside and then mostly kind of don't do a whole lot, a point to point in July and August. Then you have that typical late summer, early fall. Often you see some turbulence and downside, chop, things like that.

Now, this is only one of the inputs, of course. You have sentiment, you have technical conditions, you have fundamentals, you have the macro story, you have policy. All those things fit in. So this is a little bit more like, okay, what's your long-range forecast not necessarily predicting the weather tomorrow but one of the tailwinds we've had for a while is favorable seasonals and that might be waning in the coming weeks how much has the market out performance over the past say five ten more than that years skewed the way this

chart looks interestingly not as much as you might think, because even though, you know, over the 15-year period, we've had above average returns from that start point, the cadence over the course of a year has not been that different. You look back to last year, it was a great year. You had a peak in mid-July, you had a 10% correction down into September.

It actually seemed kind of textbook. Of course, as soon as everyone's expecting it to go according to script, there's plenty of times when it doesn't cooperate. But I do think that in general, the cadence has not become obsolete. Yeah. When it goes off script, the improvisation is where people make and lose money, I suppose. Mike, thanks. Sure.

Up next, the CEO of insurance broker Aon on how tariffs and the upcoming hurricane season are impacting his company's bottom line. Be right back. Welcome back. Global risk mitigation firm Aon's shares falling today after the company's first investor day in nearly 20 years. Stocks down despite the company reaffirming its full year guidance. It was up quite a bit heading into this though.

Joining us now on our first on CNBC interview right here on set is Greg Case, Aon's CEO, along with our very own Contessa Brewer. Contessa? John, thank you very much. And Greg, it's great to have you today. What really struck me about Investor Day is that your clients are all positioned around the world trying to navigate a period of unprecedented volatility and uncertainty. How are you helping them?

How are you guiding them at a time when we're seeing affordability and availability of insurance across different lines becoming a real challenge? Well, first of all, it's great to be both with both you, really looking forward to the conversation. For us, Investor Day was fantastic. It was really a chance to sort of step back and understand how we're helping clients every day.

Feature of Investor Day was clients who were there. We were talking about literally what's going on in their businesses. But Contessa was all about understanding volatility. And we see now trade, technology, weather, workforce, these four mega trends affecting our clients. Is it opportunity? For everywhere. It's protect the house and grow the house. You got to do both. If you're a client these days, it's not enough to sort of fear volatility, worry about it, you have to understand how you understand it so you can grow the business,

build the business, as well as protect it. So for us, absolutely an opportunity. If there's any place where AI ought to have a massive immediate impact, to me, it's the insurance industry. You deal in data, there are a lot of people involved. Where are the areas where you can either reduce cost or really improve accuracy? We absolutely don't love the question and you're absolutely right.

In essence, when you think about sort of how you're going to deal with volatility, you have to attract capital. How do you attract capital? Content, insight, you understand the volatility. AI, fundamental to that. We have a business, AI on business this is really our machine that sort of processes more content data than really anyone in the world to understand climate risk, to understand cyber risk.

And that really for us is as much about opportunity upside how you help grow a business, Katessa, as much as it is how you defend your position. And for us, it's fundamental to attracting more capital. Just quickly, insurance is four or five trillion5 trillion in capital, $250 trillion opportunity out there when you think about how pensions could participate, how sovereign funds or private equity could participate, and for us, AI, fundamental to that. Is that capital that right now you're not accessing, is that part of that $250 trillion

crucial to keeping insurance affordable in the light of climate risk. I mean, if you look at the California wildfires, $50 billion in insured losses. You're seeing convective storms, which is like thunderstorms and tornadoes. Those losses have escalated 90% over the last decade. How do you make insurance affordable for climate risk? Well, absolutely spot on question. Again, I come back to first fundamentally understanding the volatility. What does climate risk mean?

How is it going to affect your business? You have to understand implications in supply chain, implications in growth, all aspects. This is back to the AI. This is tour de force quantitative understanding. At that point, then you can think about capital. And in that point, you've got the traditional insurers and you've got alternative capital. Partnered together, that's the capacity.

And we would reject the idea that there's a risk out there that's not coverable. You understand it, you can cover it. And maybe pay the price for it. Listen, it's the trade-off, literally understanding. What does volatility mean to your business? How much does it cost? And if you understand that, then you'll understand

what you want to pay as a business. The California wildfires look like a situation perhaps though where things were not aligned correctly. How do we prevent that sort of situation where the system is collapsing, you think, from happening again? Well, first, John, understand that the wildfires are more complicated than you might even think.

You start with a $50 billion loss, but you understand, what about the health implications of that and the employees who are disrupted and the relocation? The ultimate loss is going to be substantial, even beyond that. Again, back to did we understand that risk as we were going in? We're discovering it now as it unfolds. It's got to be forward-thinking understanding. That's actually how you can address a solution that matters. You have, you talked in detail today about integrating various parts of the company where

typically brokerages have been siloed. You might have the business consultancy and the reinsurance and the brokerage part all separate. Why does that matter to your business and why are you accelerating integrating all of those various pieces? It's huge, because literally, I talked about these four mega trends, trade, technology, weather, workforce, they're connected, they're interconnected. We talked today about an example of a weather in workforce.

You're a massive contractor, you're thinking about bidding something out for a multi-year, billions of dollars, but climate change matters. Above 120 degrees, you don't have employees on the field, you can't put workers on the field. How do you bid? How do you change that?

This connectivity of risk is absolutely fundamental. You get a version of that, understand that, you can come up with a solution and make a difference. That's why it's so, so critically important. What's the least understood piece of the puzzle? Wow, I love that. For us, you come back to all these risks end up affecting people, they affect talent,

and in the end, it's not a physical structure, it really is the talent element in our mind. This example I just gave you, interesting, when you think about AI or technology and talent, again, putting the two megatrends together, use basically 40% of the capabilities as we know it today, in the next five years, we've gotta be retooled, 40%. So you kinda come back, I think, John,

I think it's around how it affects people. Okay, all right, Greg Case and Contessa Brewer are very young. Thank you so much. Well, there are a few big earnings to set you up for coming tomorrow. J.M. Smucker reports before the bell, and then we're gonna break down results from Dave and Buster's, GitLab, and GameStop

here on overtime. Also on tap for tomorrow, the reveal of this year's Disruptor 50 list, that's at 6 a.m. on Squawk Box. And we are gonna speak with the CEO of the number one company on that list right here on overtime. Gotta have to wait to see what it is later this week.

I am going to be speaking exclusively with AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, live Thursday from the Chipmakers Advancing AI Conference in San Jose. And that's on a week that started very strongly for the chips, including AMD, even as the software makers, including Apple, are trying to make things happen in AI. That's gonna do it for us here on Overtime.