Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Shutdown Extends, Commodities Plays & Restaurant Woes 10/03/25

Episode Date: October 3, 2025

Former OMB Director Mick Mulvaney breaks down the shutdown showdown and its market impact—plus what the next key dates are for both sides. Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research weighs in on the oil-versus-gold trade. TD Cowen’s Andrew Charles explains fresh moves in the restaurant space and why some brands are lagging with younger consumers. Our Contessa Brewer covers the bounce in sports betting stocks. Plus, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro looks ahead to the key economic catalysts on the horizon. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, that's the under regulation. Future Crest ringing the closing ballot, the New York Stock Exchange, Bridge Bioancology, doing the honors at the NASDAQ. All of the major averages. Russell 2000 included hitting record highs today and intraday trading. The Dow crossing $47,000 for the first time ever, closing right there on your screen at a record high. The NASDAQ pulling back to close fractionally lower. And it looks like, oh my gosh, just barely. We got a new record closing high for the S&P as well. But on the week, a lot of green on the screen. 1% gains across the board. Healthcare and utilities are the winning sectors today and this week. Healthcare having its best week in three years. Concerns about the consumer, though, discretionary stocks lower on the week. Once again, we are seeing the precious metals move higher. Gold, above 3,900 now, silver's up 3%. Cryptocurrency's also rallying.

Bitcoin getting close to its all-time high of 124,000 and change. That is the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan. John Ford is off today. Well, the market's shaking off the government shutdown for now. But OMB Director Russ Vote is threatening permanent layoffs and other cuts. We're going to talk to former OMB director Mick Mulvaney about what the lasting impact could be. And as I mentioned, concerns about the consumer one place where we're seeing at restaurant stocks. Big losses this year. Could it get

even worse? Well, let's begin with markets hitting new highs. But pulling back from those highest levels in trading today, Christina Parts Nevelis is here with all the details. Hi, Christina. Hi, Morgan. That's how I'm starting. Choppy trading heading into the afternoon, dragged down by some of the market's biggest tech names, of course. Palantir led the S&P 500's decline, falling about 7% on reports of flaws in its battlefield communication systems claims the company is pushing back on. You got Tesla that fell roughly three, a little bit over 1%, while Nvidia slipped nearly 1% as well after hitting a fresh all-time high earlier in the week. So context is everything. Still, like you talked about, all three major indices, S&P, down now. NASDA close the week in the green with the small caps Russell 2000s jumping nearly 2%. That's despite ongoing anxieties. I have to mention it around the government shutdown, which has left investors flying blind with economic data being offline. The real standout, though, this week was healthcare, posting its best week in more than

three years with a roughly 7% gain on the week. You got biotechnology and Charles River Labs, each surging more than 20% for the week, while Johnson and Johnson did not to an all-time high today. And then you, I want to end with one more tech name, Apple closing higher, despite a Jeffrey's downgrade. But it still needs, you can see on your screen, barely higher. It still needs to hit $269 a share to join the $4 trillion market cap club right now. It closed at $258. Morgan?

Okay. Christina Parts and Avelas, thank you. Well, bond yields moving higher today as the government shutdown, Greggs on. But even with no jobs report, there was some economic data to digest. Rick Santelli, who joins us now from Chicago with a breakdown. Hi, Rick. Indeed, Morgan, there was data, service sector data, both from ISM and PMIs, were very much less than expected, more on the soft side. And, of course, the service sector is the biggest swath to the U.S. economy, considering the negative numbers we've been getting or circling around manufacturing for the last two and a half years.

If you look at a 12-hour chart of 10-year yields, you can see pretty much it's climbed after it had a spike lower in yield on that 9.45 and 10 o'clock weaker than expected. service data. And if you look at a two-day chart, something important going on. We made a lower low right before that data was released, and now we are flirting with making a higher high. We're about equal to yesterday's highs right around a 412 yield. Should we go a little higher because the cash market's still open for a while? That would be considered an outside day, making this more technically significant move in terms of yield to the upside. Look at one week for tens. Very fascinating because even though we are now up three or four basis points in both twos and tens, both maturities are still down on the week, but not by nearly as much as they were

earlier. Should we settle at this 412 level we're currently at, we'd be down six basis points on the week for a 10 year. And when it comes to the dollar index, let's look at a one week chart there. If you recall, yesterday we broke that streak of four continual lower closes in a row. we had a slightly higher close, but today we're back down, which means we're not only down for the day, we're down for the week. Morgan, back to you. All right, Rick Santelli, thank you. Now let's turn to the latest out of Washington as the shutdown is on its third day. Are there actually signs of progress? Well, let's get to Emily Wilkins now for more. Hi, Emily. Hey, Morgan. Well, lawmakers tried again and failed again to end the shutdown and fund the government for the next two months. And look, at this point, there is no sign of progress here.

Republicans only got three Democrats to join them on this latest vote. That's the same number they had at the start of this shutdown. And again, that's five short of what they're going to need to get to that key 60 vote threshold. And remind you, that's with the White House, either canceling or delaying funds for infrastructure and energy projects in states with Democratic senators that was supposed to be a pressure technique. It hasn't seemed to work at least for now. Plus, the House has canceled their plans to return to D.C. next week.

their way of increasing the pressure on the Senate to act on the bill that the House passed rather than a potential bipartisan bill, which, just to be clear, we don't even have that bill yet. We don't know how this is going to end. Pressure is continuing to increase on Democrats to reopen the government. The longer the shutdown goes, the more impacts it has. But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is still calling for Republicans to negotiate on health care provisions. Republicans hold the House, the Senate, and the White House. They're in charge.

American people know that. And the American people know that it's only smart and fair and right that they should negotiate with us if they want our votes. Senators are now headed home for the weekend, meaning that a shutdown is going to go through Saturday, through Sunday, and into Monday evening. Morgan? All right, Emily Wilkins, thank you. So what are the consequences if the shutdown drags on? And what will it take to come to a deal? Let's bring in Mick Mulvaney, former White House, Chief of Staff and former head of the Office of Management and Budget, among other things. Mick, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome. Morgan, thanks for having me. Happy Friday. You too. So I want to start right there. We had another attempted vote in the Senate that failed. Five more Democrats that need to come to the table to see a clean continuing resolution actually passed. assuming that's what happens. What do you think the next steps are in this process of horse trading, if you will? Yeah, I don't see a lot of progress next week. Look, you deal with shutdowns in terms of pain points. What's the next important thing to happen? The first thing

has already happened, which is the government shutdown. It causes a little bit of pain, not much, but some. The next pain point is, I think it's the 15th. It might be the 14th this month. I lose track. I don't pay attention to the details like I used to. But that's the next payday for a lot of federal workers. Keep in mind, there's a lot of media coverage saying, oh, people are working today without getting paid. People got paid last week, right? They got paid their ordinary end of September payday. They wouldn't have been paid today anyway, but they would have gone to work. So they go to work today. They're not really not paid until they missed their next paycheck. And that's the middle of the month. That's the next pain period.

I think that gives you the first window of when you can sort of see a negotiation going on. There's not much difference between settling a government shutdown today and the 12th of October for that reason. In addition, I think the house is probably out until the 13th or 14th, that you're not going to see any progress soon, but you might see some progress before that next pay period mid-month October. Okay. October 15th is what the GSA website tells me here. I mean, that's essentially what markets are preparing for, too, a stand-up that's going to last one and a half to two weeks before real concern sets in, at least from an economic standpoint. I mean, historically, that's typically how long these last, right? Yeah, but the economic

standpoint is, I think you can make the case there's really not much economic impact here, generally speaking. Don't get me wrong. I'm not going to diminish this. If you're not getting paid and you need to get paid, it's a huge economic impact on you. I'm talking now about the larger economy. People forget that during his eight years in office, Barack Obama's best economic quarter was the quarter of a government shutdown in 2013. So there's no straight line from a government shutdown to a worse performance by the American economy. But yeah, you're right. There's going to be some localized difficulties, especially in Maryland, northern Virginia, other places where there's a lot of government workers.

I think there's one thing here, Morgan, a lot of people have missed over comparisons to the 2019 shutdown, which lasts 35 days. During 2018-19, during that longest shutdown in congressional history, excuse me, in government history, we had already passed the military appropriation, the defense appropriations bill. So the defense department, the soldiers, men and women were getting paid. They are not getting paid now. That ratchets up the temperature, which again comes back to why I think you probably see something before mid-month. Yeah, that's a very key point. Stay right there, Mick, because you have some breaking news on the Middle East.

We're going to go to Amman Jabbers for the details. Amen. Morgan, we've got a new statement from Hamas here in response to President Trump's peace proposal for the Gaza Strip. A seemingly positive response here from Hamas to the president. They say, in this very long statement, a key section here is, they say, in order to achieve a cessation of hostilities and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, The movement announces its agreement to release all Israeli prisoners, both living and dead, according to the exchange formula contained in President Trump's proposal, provided the field conditions for the exchange are met. They also say the movement also renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independence or technocrats based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab and Islamic support.

So this would seem to be an acceptance of much of what president, President Trump laid out in his proposal. I will point out, Morgan, the language here is a little bit conditional, so we'll have to see what the diplomats make of this, because they're saying that they are prepared to release all the Israeli prisoners, both living and dead, provided the field conditions for the exchange are met. Not clear to me on first read exactly what field conditions are met might mean, and how much wiggle room that gives Hamas here.

But this White House may be encouraged by this statement. I just spoke very briefly with Caroline Levitt, the White House Press Secretary. She was just receiving this news at that time, and she was on her way to talk to the Secretary of State and get the official U.S. government response. So I expect we will have a response here from the White House and from the Secretary of State momentarily. We don't have that just yet, though, Morgan. Back over to you. Okay. When you get it, bring it back to us. Amin Jabbers. Thank you. Mick Mulvaney, I'm going to turn back to you, and put you in the hot.

a little bit here and shift from domestic politics to geopolitics and just see if you have reaction to this news that we just got. That's all right. We used to do it all the time in the White House, yes, which you sort of have to do with the job. Look, I think Amen hit the nail on the head. As he was reading that, I was thinking the same thing he commented on towards the end of that little segment right there, which is what are field conditions? That's a term I'm not familiar with from the original 20-point proposal. I do recall some requirements about how the governance of Gaza we turned over to an independent body, and that Hamas would either have to to leave or agree to give up violence and so forth.

I don't know if that's agreed to, if that's part of their offer. But look, I think it'd be foolish not to view this as at least progress. This is further along towards the path towards piece that we were 20 minutes ago or certainly a week ago. So Amon's right. You've got to look at the conditional language, but it sounds like at least their Hamas is interested in using the 20-point framework as a negotiating sort of starting point. And if I shift back to the domestic conversation we started here with, the idea that the administration is beginning to withhold some funding, particularly to specific blue states, the idea that the OMB director is looking to potentially start making some deeper job cuts within the federal workforce as well.

How much does that change the dynamic and the calculus amid these negotiations for a continuing resolution? It absolutely does. It gives the White House leverage. It just does. Donald Trump has figured out that spending is leverage and not spending is leverage. And they're going to be phone calls made from various people all around the country. They have already been made to various moderate Democrat senators saying, look, if you let Russ vote have his way, we're going to, this program will end or that funding will stop. Please vote for the continuing resolution. That's what this is about. This is this is not by accident. Look, Russ vote was my deputy, for three years, the man probably knows more about the way the government functions and than anybody in Washington, D.C. And they've been waiting for this period, for this opportunity now for a long time. So, no, it's not by accident. They're deadly serious about cutting this programs, and they're letting the Democrats know about it. That's what fascinates me, Morgan, is they sent out the letter and said, look, if you shut the government down, we're going to do X, Y, and Z. That's, that's, that's negotiating 101. And I was really impressed to see that. So look, my guess is, and this is not the question

who asked the Democrats who will eventually vote for a CR. Everybody does. The continuing resolution always wins in these battles. Take Republican Democrat titles away. The people who are trying to use a shutdown for leverage don't get what they want and the continuing clean resolution wins out. And I think that's where you end up here for part of the reason, but not all the reason, is that exactly what you've just talked about. The Democrats don't want those cuts that the OMB Director Russ Vote is talking about. Do you think those cuts come one way or the other regardless? And I ask that because I think it's not just everyday Americans who are watching, but it is also the bond market and investors as well when things like the deficit are in such big focus. It's a great question.

I'm not going to dodge it, but give me a second to play this out. It depends. We don't know yet. Here's why. We believe, and Russ and I used to work together, and we always thought that we had more authority, more discretion when we are operating outside of the appropriations process. Technically, a government shutdown is called a lapse in appropriation. So right now, the reason the government shutdown is there's no appropriations. So we're not really impounding any money, which is illegal, by the way, if you or excuse me, if you believe the Budget Control Impound Act is unconstitutional, or is constitutional,

you can't impound funds? But can you do it when there's no appropriation process? So the answer to your question is this. Russ believes that he's got more authority during a shutdown than he would during the ordinary appropriations process. all right mcmolvaney great to get your thoughts and insights today thank you too all this talk about the mag seven and invidia but invidia is the best performing mag seven stock it's only up 40% this year sounds good but it's underperforming gold and it's really lagging behind silver so can precious metals continue to outperform the biggest tech names we're

gonna dig into that on the other side of this break we'll be back in two welcome back to overtime quantum stocks hired today, wrapping up a huge week. Raghetti and D-WA, both at more than 10% today. Raghetti announced two purchase orders totaling $5.7 million, separately. Novo Nordisk and the Danish government putting $300 million in a quantum venture fund. And I don't think we've heard the end of the quantum news, as that dynamic seems to be accelerating here over the coming months and coming years.

Well, gold's hitting new highs today as government shutdown drags on. It's been a winner this year, outperforming crude oil. lot. It's up 48%. UBS is out with a note today, expecting gold prices to rise to $4,200 an ounce over the coming months. Joining us with his bullish take is 314 research co-founder Warren. Pies, Warrens, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. Thanks for having me. Let's start right there. The Bull case for gold. What is it from here? Well, I think the big picture shift that we've outlined for our clients for a while is that I think investor mindsets are into what we're calling the basement mode.

And so I think this happened around the pandemic where the fear, the really most pressing psychic fear for investors was not the loss of principle, but the loss of purchasing power. And I think in that environment, it's just a great backdrop for gold. And so what we would call is a secular bull market, a multi-year bull market that's emerging for gold. And I think it started around the pandemic. And then it ramped up again after the Russia-Ukraine war started and we froze Russian assets and you saw the first move in this really was a shift from central banks in their reserves

moving more into gold and now you're finally seeing that breakout into the investing public and so yeah our our message to clients when you study gold historically is that these secular bowl markets they go farther higher and last longer than you could have expected and so we've come out with aggressive targets over and over we had a 2500 price target at the beginning of last year which gold blew through. And then we had a $3,500 price target for this year, which gold blew through. And our message to clients the whole time has been, we can't predict where this thing's going to top. Once you get in one of these bulls, you've got to ride it and just wait for, let the market tell you when it's over, and it's not over yet. Historically, gold and silver tend to be

correlated. That broke down for a while. But now we're seeing this catch-up trade in silver. Do you like silver, too? Yeah, I mean, silver is, has a little more economic sensitivity. I'm I'm partial to gold just because it's just a pure monetary metal. I know there's a little bit of usage, but I like the pure monetary aspect of gold. And you could probably make the same analogy over to crypto and say, like, I think Bitcoin is the most analogous for digital gold. And so that's where I prep my preference is. And if you want something with a little more mp, I like the gold miners. And that's actually, you know, you talk about gold performance.

Gold miners have ripped this year. and they've been dormant for, you know, over a decade. I've had that pitch to me for 15 years, and they're finally waking up. So that's where I would allocate here. How about oil, especially with energy stocks, one of the few sectors that actually finished the week lower? And I say that knowing that we had a bit of a rally last week after some change and rhetoric between the U.S. and Russia. Yeah, you know what's funny is we were doing our Q4 chart book just yesterday for clients, and you look through every major asset class.

and basically everything's higher on the year. This has been a Goldilocks environment, great for stocks, good for gold, obviously, tech stocks, foreign stocks, even bonds are up, yields are down. But oil is not participating. It's kind of the reverse of what we saw in 2022 where everything was down, but oil was up. So I think there's something to this. We've been bearish on oil. We expected this. I think that the dominant factor in the oil market going into the year has been this return of OPEC supply.

So OPEC has put about almost two million. barrels of new supply out onto the market here this year. The market, I think the price would even lower for crude other than the fact that we've seen China doing this kind of tactical buying for their strategic petroleum reserve up to about as much as 600,000 barrels of days. That's significant in this market. And so you can't count on China continuing to buy, and they're not going to buy if the price rallies. So to me, there's not a lot to like about the crude market here. I think you need to digest this oil. One of the big factors we're seeing now is oil in transit, so that's oil on the water,

has blown out to a multi-year high. That's going to land into storage tanks in the coming weeks and months, and then that's going to ultimately show up as a glut. Price will probably sell off. You'll see this curve, which has been evaporated, slip into contango, and the market does what it does. So in that all points to lower prices for crude oil in my mind. Okay.

Maybe some positives there for the inflation, or maybe I should say, inflation story as well, even if not so much for energy traders. Warren Pies, thank you. Thanks for having me. As stocks rise to all-time highs, valuations are coming into question. But that doesn't seem to be stopping some people from chasing big returns. Mike Santoli is looking at the speculation. And USA Rare Earth's jumping today based on something that we heard right here on overtime yesterday. In case you missed it, we've got the full details ahead. Welcome back. Shares of USA rare earth soaring today, finishing up 14% after the company's CEO, brand new CEO, Barbara Humpton, joined us right here on overtime yesterday and confirmed

that the company has been talking to the Trump administration. Well, indeed, we are in close communication with the administration. We applaud what the Trump administration has done in order to make investments to secure that supply chain. This is a field where it will not be a zero-sum game. It's going to take a lot of players to build this marketplace. And of course, we have seen the Trump administration strike a number of deals with critical minerals suppliers along the way. So that particularly newsworthy in light of some of these deals we've seen with MP materials and lithium Americas and others. So the stock's up a whopping 86% this month. That's following the announcement that the government would take a stake

in lithium Americas, as I just mentioned. That stock is also on a tear. It's up 200% in a month. Well, let's turn to the broader markets, shall we? There's been big movies. in micro stocks lately in the options markets, is that telling us something about the quality of this rally? Let's bring in senior markets commentator Mike Santoli for more. Mike, we've been talking about microcaps a little bit for a while here. We've been seeing these moves. It tells us something, Morgan, at least about the velocity and the intensity of this phase of the rally. Take a look at the microcap ETF IWC. And that angle from April to now, this is a five-year chart, is pretty remarkable. So it's rushed right back up to those

from late 2021. That was when we had that very fevered market. So there's no way of saying, oh, this has obviously gone around the bend and it's going to create some kind of broader problems for the market. But just know that the speculative energy is really running right now. Another place you can see it is in the options market. Now, this from Bespoke is an extremely long-term chart of overall options volume calls against puts. The upside call volume has really accelerated to the upside. A tremendous percentage of it is just zero-day expiration. So it's same-day options bets. There's a lot of good. reasons for that? Lower cost, more leverage, more precision in how you bet. But again, it does show

a bit of a stampede going on in these parts of the market. You mentioned rare earths. I would add quantum you were talking about. I would add anything crypto related. I looked at the top holdings in the microcaps. It's all those things, the alternative energy areas, the drone makers that you know very well. So again, it's one of these things where we have a lot of intense speculation in this one corridor of the market. The overall market is kind of absorbing it and saying, you know, this is a bull market and that's how they act. Interesting. I mean, do you see it as kind of a bifuricated market in that sense then that you have some of these smallest, most speculative, most risky stocks trading so high? And then, of course, the biggest of the stocks also continuing

to power higher? It is. It's definitely, I don't know if it's bifurcated or it's just very kind of spotty and selective, I would say. And it's interesting to me how it's netting out to, if you look at the big cap indexes to this very orderly uptrend. It just looks like, rotation that refreshes the advance as opposed to destabilizing it, eventually something cracks and it breaks and we get fragile. You know, who's to say when that will be? Yeah. Of course, you know, historically, October, the most volatile month of the year. So we'll see. We've broken a lot of those seasonal rules this year. We'll see how it goes. All right. Mike Santoli. We can hope, though. Thank you. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News update with McKenzie

Segalos. Hi, Mac. Hey there, Morgan. Chevron says the fire at its El Segundo oil refinery is now fully extinguished after first erupting last night, sending a massive fireball into the air. No injuries were reported, and Chevron has said all personnel has been accounted for. The fire was considered contained earlier this morning, and the oil giant says it has launched an internal investigation to find the cause. The Treasury Department is considering minting commemorative dollar coins featuring President Donald Trump's face on both sides to celebrate the country's 250th birthday, a Treasury Department official telling CNBC that draft photos of the coin reflect

the enduring spirit of our country and democracy, even in the face of immense obstacles. The coins are still in development and designs have not been finalized. And Spirit Airlines, CFO, announced the company is cutting almost 100 airplanes from its fleet as it restructures during bankruptcy proceedings, according to Reuters. That will nearly have the budget airlines fleet, and it comes as the company tries to shut down unprofitable routes at a dozen U.S. airports. Back to you, Morgan. All right, McKenzie Sagalos, thank you.

As stocks soared to all-time highs, is there. area of the economy being overlooked. Well, up next, we're going to talk to a restaurant analyst who's lowering his targets on several restaurant brands on concerns about the lower income consumer. Overtime is back in two. Welcome back to Overtime. The Dow hire for the six straight session and closing at a record high. The Russell 2000 also closing at a high.

A record for the S&P 500, albeit just barely, it was less than half a point higher today at the close. But the NASDAQ did finish the day slightly low. For the week, the NASDAQ, and everything else, closing with gains. Palantir down 7% today, though, after reports of security flaws in a communications platform for the U.S. Army, which Palantir is working on as a subcontractor to Andrel, meaning it's Andrel's platform. Palantir saying this occurred during the experimental phase and was mitigated immediately. And a long list of stocks hitting all-time highs today, Johnson and Johnson, Caterpillar and Travelers, among them. Now, it has been a brutal three months for the restaurant stocks, names like Shakespeare.

shack, wing stop, and Kava, all down double digits. Those moves come as concerns over the consumer proliferate the market. And those concerns are leading TD Cowen to lower price targets for several names in the sector. So joining us now is Andrew Charles from TD Cowan. Andrew, it's great to have you on. Let's start right there. Why are you bringing price targets down on some of these chains? Great to be with you again, Morgan. So look, the risk is sounding old. Unfortunately, we're looking at Gen Z as a new pocket of softness. You know, restaurant investors have heard about softness with lower income consumers, as well as Hispanic consumers. We're flagging the most incremental and newest right now is Gen Z. And what we're looking at

is we can see that youth unemployment is starting to outpace national average at a faster gap. Obviously, we didn't get the news report this morning on the jobs. But we can see that looking in the last six months, we've seen a steady outperformance of youth unemployment, age 16 to 24, versus the national average. You couple that as well with student debt repayment over the last five or so months as well, ticking higher, combined as well with consumer confidence that for the youngest generation, used to be an outperformer back in 2024 and now is unenforming the national average in 2025, all paints a bit of picture that looks like youth is really leading this downfall, which is really the core customer of these fast casual businesses.

You know, it's interesting because as I look at this report, and we keep seeing all this mixed data, especially where the consumer is concerned, mixed commentary, depending on the consumer facing company you speak to as well. So the fact that you break this down according to younger consumers, Democratic Party, liberal consumers, low-income consumers and Hispanic consumers, I find very, very fascinating. What were the results of that? Yeah, look, I appreciate you flagging that. You know, I would say that, you know, what we're seeing is that Fast Casual right now is not immune from these broader challenges. Bro's remains our favorite, you know, within Fast Casual, which is Dutch Bros., ticker BROS. We like that this company has been executing and had been the

cleanest story of 2025, combined as well with the food rollout they're doing. And elsewhere in the restaurant industry, we also like Domino's Pizza, ticker DPZ, as we think they're poised for a solid quarter and a better outlook on 2026 than investors are expecting. And lastly, first watch, FWRG, a full service concept. As we can see within our data, that full service restaurants, you know, sit-down restaurants are performing best as they're less exposed to this customer group. Yeah.

How much are the sit-down restaurants taking market share from the fast casual ones? Yeah, you know, it appears that seems to be the case. You know, it's kind of interesting to see that casual dining, which had been really the shared donor of the last roughly 20 years, give or take, you know, for the restaurant ministry outside of Glipps. We're seeing right now there's quite a bit of share gains that they're seeing as investors are favoring casual dining restaurants like First Watch. Hmm. Is there a scenario in which some of these companies start to bring their prices down to attract more people back into the stores? You know, it's an interesting question. You know, we've seen, broadly speaking, fast casual, try to take the quick service playbook this year.

And what I mean by that is they're focusing more on speed of service, focusing more on advertising, focusing more on menu innovation, all taxes you saw out of quick service. I think we're going to see value done very sensitively because these are premium brands. This isn't their forte as to discount. But we are seeing things like loyalty programs where if you join, you know, there's definitely certain CRM efforts that restaurants are deploying towards loyalty members that can try to get value that way. I think you're going to see as well more fast casual restaurants really emphasizing the amount of portion you get and how you can add so many toppings to your dish as well. So I think value is a very slippery slope, but I think fast casual is waking up to the fact they're going to have to promote value more aggressively than they've done. So then what do you think is the catalyst for these stocks to start to see a rebound? Yeah, it's a great question. We're going to have to see 2026 guidance issued more likely when we see February results.

And, you know, based on our macro analyst, Oscar Munoz's philosophy, he believes we're going to see a more difficult labor market as we go through 1Q26. And so, you know, we have a 12-month investment horizon. We maintain buy ratings on Kava, Rose, Chipotle, and Wingstop. Seems like things are positioned to get worse before they get better. So I'd like to think that when companies issued their 2026 forecast, perhaps in February, perhaps we see peak peasantism there before we start to see hopefully an improving macro for these concepts.

Combined as well as peak pessimism that we're seeing right now, that's leading to some pretty trial multiples. But I do fairly that we may have to wait until February on a few of these names. Okay. Andrew Charles. Thank you. Thanks, Morgan. Well, shares of electric vertical takeoff and landing air taxi company. That was a mouthful. Evie Tall Company, Archer Aviation, nearly quadrupling over the last year. Up next, the company's CEO on his expansion into Japan and other global growth opportunities. Plus, sports betting stocks getting sacked this week.

We're going to tell you what's behind the sell-off and whether investors should be worried. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Check out shares of Red Cat Holdings. Those are soaring today. Needham initiating coverage of the drone maker with a buy rating, a $17 price target. That implies upside of more than 40% from here. You get to those shares finished up 12% today. The analyst there says the unmanned aerial systems industry is entering a multi-year super cycle

and Red Cat should benefit from demand for small defense drones. We've been hearing a lot about that and a lot of policy pushes towards that as well. Sticking with that theme, though, the theme of aerospace, if you will. Shares of Archer Aviation soaring 24% this week after the Evital maker announced an expansion into Japan. Now, I sat down with Archer Aviation CEO and co-founder Adam Goldstein at the Up Summit to discuss the partnership, which involves an order of up to 100 aircraft valued at half a billion dollars. The aircrafts have gotten to a point where they've become quite mature, and now I think the world is recognizing this. And so a lot of the regulations in place, and now you're starting to see different countries get involved.

And most recently, at Osaka, we announced a deal with the city and our partnership, which is called Sorakle, which is a joint venture, Japan Airlines, and Sumitomo. I guess how does it speak to the rollout as we see it globally and the countries that are leaning in and adopting the technology the fastest? Well, the FAA created the category and I think much of the world is watching what happens in America and how the FAA really treats this. But at the same time, a lot of the other countries want to be involved and they want to be leaning forward in bringing advanced air mobility to market. And so on one hand, you're kind of watching and seeing what the FAA is doing. On the other hand, they also want to put the infrastructure in place and really start to get the cities. ready to go. So President Trump announced the executive order, which really helped fast track a lot of the process in the U.S., and I think that's going to lead to more and more of these

countries getting involved. That executive order was a big deal for the EVETal market, which now plans to be flying piloted aircraft in various U.S. cities next summer. That's Archer, that plans to do that. They already do daily flight testing in California. Archer will be the official air taxi provider for the L.A. 28 Olympic Games. Goldstein sees the company as an aircraft manufacturer, though, not as a service provider, at least not yet. So we also discussed the competitive landscape. The good news is, you know, the industry has largely consolidated to a few kind of core players.

And so it used to be 1,000, and now there's kind of more like a handful. And that allows a lot of the focus of the regulators to work on just a few. It allows the infrastructure partners to build standards, charging standards, and, you know, just the different work that has to get done just around a few, which allows it all to progress. And so I think the industry has, it's been competitive at times, but it also is trying to come together as one to really build, you know, a more friendly environment to actually, like, launch these aircrafts. Well, Archer Aviation sees opportunities on the defense side as well, and that's similar to beta technologies, Joe B. Aviation and others. We take a look at Archer's stock. It's up 293% over the last 12 months as investors continue to focus on these next-gen transportation.

opportunities. Well, up next, the emerging threat to sports betting giants flutter and draft kings and whether that risk is being overblown. And sticking with gambling, find out why you can blame it on the rain when it comes to the rough day for casino stocks. Overtime. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. Casino operators, Las Vegas Sands, and Winn Resorts among the big losers in the S&P 500 today. Seaport research reporting that Macau's gross gaming revenue was hurt by a typhoon. last month, although the analysts there still see a strong second half growth thanks to rising demand from China's middle class. Well, meanwhile, it's been a rough week for sports betting

giants, Flutter and Draft Kings as well over competition concerns from Kalshee's prediction markets. Contessa Brewer is here. She joins me now with more, Contessa. Well, so you've got Draft Kings and Vandal regaining a little ground today. They were up. Oh, well, Draft Kings was up one and a third percent and Flutter up two and a half percent. But if you look at Draft Kings over this week down more than 16%. They just got walloped when Kalshi came out and said, guess what? We're getting into the parlay game, only they didn't call it parleyes. They said, you can make your own combo, but it is a parlay product. And parley products were supposed to be the exclusive purview of licensed legal sports books. In fact, when I have talked to Jason

Robbins and of Draft Kings, the CEO of Draft Kings and Amy, how the CEO of Fandwell in the past, they've said, well, look, they can't really offer what we do. If you go to the prediction, markets, you're betting on the outcome of the game, and that's it. But we offer these really great, enjoyable, entertaining parlay options where you can stack your bets. Well, guess what? When Kalshi says we're getting into it, the investors did not like what they saw, and they sold off those stocks. Now, one interesting twist here, Morgan, yesterday in federal court in Nevada, a judge came out and told crypto.com, which is trying to get into the sports predictions markets with underdog, the big fantasy sports provider and sports gaming platform, the judge said, look,

you cannot call these swaps. These are not events contracts. This is not something that should be regulated by the CFTC. It's something that the gaming regulators are going to have to get into. And in fact, we heard from the CFTC as well this week telling these predictions operators, you better be careful because there's a risk here. The tribes are suing. The state regulators are suing, and you need to inform your customers and your investors and have contingencies ready in case it's not permitted to keep going through. Super fascinating. You see how all this shakes out, especially the regulatory jurisdictions associated with it, too.

I just want to shift gears a little bit here, Contessa, because they're going to be live in Macau next week. And one of the things that's being pointed to for some of the pressure we've seen on some of the casino stocks today has been the fact that the preliminary Golden Week travel data out of China is maybe falling a bit short of the elevated expectations. I guess how are you, what are you thinking about? What are you watching as you do get ready to get on a plane? It's a great question. The first two days of Golden Week have just slightly exceeded elevated expectations. The tourism director said, look, we think there's going to be 150,000 visitor turnover every day of Golden Week.

This is the big week when everybody comes in for the holiday to celebrate and the gamblers are excited and the people who want to see the shows are excited. Here's the question. There's a typhoon spinning off the west coast of the Philippines. Is that going to be a threat to Macau? What we saw in September was a big typhoon came through, hit Hong Kong, hit Guangdong province, which is a big feeder market for Macau. And it did not derail entirely the monthly growth. We still saw Macau come out with 6% year-over-year growth for September. But the analysts say it was probably a six to seven. percent hit to the growth trajectory. In other words, we would have seen it be 12 or 13 percent had it not been for that big typhoon. The impact would be even more significant if it were to happen during Golden Week. But so far, we're not seeing that. Okay. Can't wait for reporting next week. Contessa Brewer, thank you. Will we or won't we get any big economic data next week? Well, that depends on whether the government shutdown is ended. Up next, we will discuss how investors are supposed to know what's going on with the economy without the key data.

Stay with us. Well, let's get you set up for next week. Here's what's technically on tap, although some of the data will depend on whether the government shutdown ends or not. On Monday, we will get a read on consumer spending with Constellation Brands' earnings. Tuesday, we'll get international trade and consumer credit data, along with McCormick's earnings. We'll get the Fed Minutes on Wednesday. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims, perhaps, and earnings from Delta PepsiCo and Levi-Strauss,

And the week closes out with consumer sentiment data. But what if the government shutdown does not end? How can investors navigate the market with no economic data, at least federal economic data, next week? Let's ask our next guest. Renaissance macro research head of U.S. economics, Neil Duda. Neil, it's great to have you back in the show. And let's start right there, because I'm calling this a data desert as long as we have a government shutdown afoot. How do you navigate it?

Well, it's a great question, Morgan. I mean, I think basically what you have to do is elevate a lot of the second tier. economic data that's going to be coming out. So that basically means a lot of survey measures of economic activity. So for example, next week we'll get the University of Michigan number for October. We'll see what consumers say about the labor markets and inflation expectations then. So that'll be one piece of information. But beyond that, there's really not much else.

I mean, the truth is, I mean, if you look at the prediction markets right now, it looks like the shutdown is going to last through the next survey period for the establishment payroll survey. So, you know, this can drag on quite a while. It does feel like both sides are kind of digging their heels in right now. So we're going to be in a data fog for a few weeks here. The one thing we do get quite a lot of next week is FedSpeak. Does that take on greater importance now? You know, there's not really much they can say. I mean, I think we all know the labor markets are cooling, right? I mean, last week we saw the conference board data.

It showed weakness in the labor differential. The ADP number showed, you know, basically an outright contraction in private employment. And then ISM data showed ongoing weakness in the employment component. So what can the Fed speakers really say other than, you know, things are, slackening here. And, you know, at the margin, I mean, the longer the government shutdown goes on, the worse it's going to be for the economy. So, you know, at the margin, I think that should make them a little bit more cautious on the outlook. You know, right now, you know, the stock markets are basically at records. What incentive is there really for the president to negotiate with the other

side? So, you know, I think that's really the risk, Morgan, at this point, is does the stock market ultimately have to be like that forcing function to get both sides to the table. How does this affect the U.S. economy? And at what point does that actually start to take root? Well, I mean, I'm sure every one of your viewers has been bombarded by Wall Street economists in their inboxes saying that this probably knocks a tenth to two tenths off GDP every week that it goes on. And that once the shutdown is over, you know, that that hit will be made up as people get I think the risk is the president's talking not just about furlowing workers, which is what we usually see, but also getting rid of some of these government workers permanently.

And that creates a different set of dynamics for the U.S. economy. Obviously, if you're a furloughed worker, you probably don't shift your consumption all that much because you expect your income to come back later. But if you're fired, then you have a permanent income loss, and that could be more problematic. Okay. Neil Dutta. Thank you. We'll have to keep an eye on Washington and see how this plays out with lawmakers. In the meantime, major averages did hit record highs today. The NASDAQ finished fractionally lower, but both the S&P and the Dow closed at new records as well. That's going to do it for us here at overtime.

Have a wonderful weekend.