Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Stocks Close Well Off Lows As Equities Shake Off Surge in Oil 4/2/26

Episode Date: April 2, 2026

Richard Haass, former President of the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how the geopolitical landscape is shifting and what it means for markets and global stability. Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, breaks down the market impact and how investors should be positioned amid volatility. Paul Sankey of Sankey Research dives into the oil market gyrations. Former CEA member Jared Bernstein discusses where the economy stands and what comes next for growth, policy and the labor market. Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson outlines what could drive markets in the week ahead as investors prepare for key jobs data. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell is bringing an end to the trading day at the NYC Olympic champion, Michaela Schifrin, bringing the closing bell and at the NASDAQ, Brain Limited, doing the honors. Welcome to closing bell overtime, live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Mike Santoli. Melissa Lee is off today. A sharp reversal for stocks today is the S&P 500 rebounds from a more than 1.5% loss in the morning. The NASDAQ bounced back from a more than 2% drop. At the close, the S&P and NASDAQ ending the day, just slightly in the green.

Dow essentially flat, all major indices breaking a five-week losing streak, more on the markets ahead. On our radar at the close, oil's massive rally, conflicting economic data, and one year since Liberation Day. But let's start with all of today's market action. Sima Modi is watching today's movers. Pippa Stevens tracking oil and diesel, Rick Santelli with the Bond action, and Aymond Javours, with the latest out of D.C. And Sima, we start with you. And Mike, that intraday reversal certainly catching the attention,

Even with oil prices remaining higher throughout the day as President Trump, declining to give a definitive timeline for the end of the war with Iran, WTI crude, settling at its highest level since June of 2022. That did help certain parts of the energy sector outperform names like Diamondback, Marathon Petroleum, trading higher by 1 to 2%. But technology remaining weak led by the hyperscalers, meta, Amazon, alphabet, all finishing lower on the day, but also loads of the day. Memory names like Micron and Western Digital that had been underprican.

pressure recently, unable to catch a break in today's trade, but software, a sector that has been beaten up recently around concerns around AI, the displacement fears, seeing its first positive week since March 6th. Surging oil prices once again putting the spotlight on transportation and cruise lines with Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian cruise line, all shedding about 2 to 3%. And one chart to ponder on, gold. Despite expectations of a potential escalation in the war, gold was down as a dollar strengthened gold miners like Barrick and Wheaton pressure metals. These were off by around 1 to 2 percent, Mike. Yeah, gold continuing to trade like more of a risk on asset.

Seema, thank you. Let's turn to the energy markets as oil and Brent both saw big jumps today. Pippa Stevens has the numbers. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Mike, Deputy, I and Brent, both have more than 7 percent, but the front month prices aren't reflecting what people are paying for the soonest available oil. Data Brent, which is the price for oil delivered within the next. roughly 10 to 30 days hit $141.37 today. That's according to S&P Global Energy, the highest price since 2008, and the sixth highest value on record since they began tracking in 1987. President Trump offering

no path to resume traffic in the strait, and if and when it does open, Sparta forecasts, it will take three to six months to normalize. Weeks one to eight will be port scrambles and field restarts. Weeks two to six will see refinery restarts. Asian refiners will gradually ramp during weeks four to 12, weeks eight to 12 will be when pet cam production restarts. And that is still far away at this point and also assumes an unconditional reopening. Last night, President Trump said the straight will open naturally, but some doubting that, including French president Emmanuel Macron, who said today, that is unrealistic. Mike? Yeah, Pippa, on that point, I mean, there was a headline this morning that Iran and Oman may be coming to some kind of a protocol about passage through the strait. And then

we have these meetings going on with other nations trying to find a point. path forward. That contrast with the fact that, you know, the price, price structure for oil is showing extreme near-term physical shortage. I'm wondering if this idea that maybe that's a forcing mechanism to get something through the straits here. It could be a forcing mechanism, and the market clearly thinks that any oil getting through the straight is better than no oil getting through the straight, but about that potential deal with Oman, we really need to see what the details are on that. First, there has been a lot of back and forth and a lot of kind of misguided headlines coming out of either side.

And so we're still awaiting clarity on that front. But I think the bigger point is that President Trump basically said that the United States doesn't have to help with the reopening of the strait. But that's not what we're hearing from other parties, including our allies. And we've heard from various countries say that Iran can't implement some sort of tolling mechanism. There has to be a reopening, a full reopening for these global energy flows to resume. because if it is this kind of contingent toll structure, then what's to say they won't once again implement kind of a crackdown

and prohibit ships from going through. And so kind of what the market is awaiting now is just for this to reopen, but with no set path every single day, the problem starts to compound. And the fact that we're seeing that dated brand price jumped to above $140, that does speak to the disconnect between what's happening on the ground with the physical oil that's actually being traded and used right now versus where the market thinks this will or how long the market thinks this could take to resolve. Yeah, so that price premium will build in the out months if nothing moves.

All right, Pippet, thank you very much. A very volatile day for the markets, as all three indices paired significant early losses. My next guest says that while there may be further derisking in the near term, his indicators are triggering a buy signal, and the downside from here appears limited. Joining me now with his take is Max Ketner, HSBC chief multi-asset strategist. Max, good to see you. Good to see you. Thank you. We got this.

I guess we have a decent bounce or a few percent off the recent lows. A lot of commentary coming in the week. Maybe this matches up with your work, too, is, yep, we're starting to see some of those extremes that tend to proceed some kind of rally attempt, but maybe not the kind of true cleansing flush that you might hope for as one that is sort of doesn't matter what the news is. You should buy it. Yeah, but Mike, I also think there is actually a few things overlooked. When we look within the equity market, I think, you know, for those people waiting for the final flush or really the sort of vix to like 40, 50 or something. I think that's unlikely because there is already, I think, quite a lot of damage that has been done within the equity market, whether that is in the U.S., whether that is in markets outside of the U.S.

Look at Europe, for example, if you look at cyclicals over defensives, cyclicals have underperformed the defensive sector. by about 10 percentage points over the last month, even within the S&P, since the highs in around January, you know, over the last two and a half months, we've actually seen cyclicals underperformed defensives even within the S&P by almost 10%. I do think the equity market internals, internally when we look particularly cyclicals over defensive,

there has already been quite a lot of damage, and that should prevent that sort of final flush out, especially because when you look like you've mentioned A couple of out positioning indicators really, really triggering now the biggest buy signal since the Liberation Day episode. Those signals are at their extremes since Liberation Day, but they're not approaching the levels, right, of Liberation Day. And obviously, the market was down in the U.S. 20% at the lows at that point. So I'm not saying you need to get there, but every, you know, we kind of will have gotten off somewhat easy if we just got a 9% setback. Yeah, I think we probably have, but at the same time, I think that is part of that why you want to look at positioning at these kind of periods and you don't want to look at price action that much because there might well be an episode like Liberation Day.

Where you're down 20 or in excess of 20%, where you briefly, we've entered that bare market period pretty much this time last year, and only then indicators from positioning are then triggering. or it might also happen that you get a 5% drawdown, and that 5% drawdown is already enough to freak out people. And that's a little bit what we've seen right now. We are seeing that things like survey-based sentiment, things like hedging demand, particularly shortened hedging demand and equities very, very high. We are seeing things like technicals. When you look at technicals, you know, relative strength around equities, around credit, around commodities, really, really weak.

And I would say, yes, but overall, we haven't. reached the extremes in terms of the bearish positioning and bearish sentiment like we've had in April 2025 last year with the Liberation Day. A lot of that has to do that unlike last year, actually rates are selling off now as well. So that is very different to last year where we immediately then had a snap back into this negative equity bond correlation, bonds not selling off, but bonds actually working as people had these recession fears. That very much is different now. And that constrains a little bit positioning overall because it basically means people want to get out of everything. You guys were talking about gold before. It wasn't really risk off. It was really basically

just liquidation across all the asset classes. Yeah, I mean, it is notable, obviously, that, you know, stocks are off their lows with oil still making new highs and bond yields have not gone back to their recent highs. So it seems that the market's trying to come to some kind of a piece with this situation to the degree it can. You mentioned the underperformance of cyclicals globally as well as in the U.S., is that something we should take as a signal that, in fact, you know, economic risk is now higher and we have to be on guard for another growth scare? No, Mike, I think we should take it actually as the opposite signal. I think we should take it as the signal that whilst at the headline levels, equities may

not be down a lot, but actually within the equity market, there is already that damage, there is already that pessimism price did. So when people are saying, look, on the headline levels, there hasn't really been enough paying price, whether it's in equities, whether it's in credit, right? Look at high yield spreads as well. Yes, that may be true, but within the equity market, that clearly is now anticipating already worse growth and worse economic data, whilst at the same time, we look at the high frequency data. Look at credit card data. Look at today's data on the labor market, right? Look at particularly even things like the staffing index, temporary, temporary workers.

So all of these things, whether it's high-frequency labor market or high-frequency activity data in the U.S., they're really holding up in spite of actually the equity market internal's already being so bare. So to me, that is the signal that the market is anticipating already quite some weakness, which makes that positioning signal, that bullish positioning signal, even stronger and tells us this is a pretty good time to buy now. Yeah, okay. Maybe we're in this moment where the data hasn't necessarily, reflected everything, but you're right. It still has held up okay. Max, good to talk to you, Max Ketner of HSBC. Let's now turn to Washington as the president issues new threats on Iranian infrastructure as he tries to pressure Iran in negotiations. Amin Javers in D.C. with the latest.

Hi, I mean. Hey there, Mike. New statements from the Iranian Navy this afternoon, claiming that they targeted data centers of two American companies, Oracle in Dubai and Amazon in Bahrain. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps writing, we had previously warned that our response to the killing of Iranians would be to disable the machine of assassination. And an Iranian military spokesman has said that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed long-term to the United States and Israel. Not clear, Mike, whether that means to U.S. flagged tankers necessarily or to the U.S. Navy or what. But it does seem to indicate that the Iranians envision allowing some shipping through the global oil checkpoint at some point. Now, all of that coming after

we saw an earlier report from Iranian state media saying that the country was working with Oman on a possible safe passage arrangement. That news generated a significant market spike earlier today on hopes that some kind of a deal could be struck soon. But nothing confirmed officially, Mike. Back over to you. For sure, nothing confirmed. You know, Aymn, we've had this pattern where leading into a weekend you can discernibly see the markets just kind of clench up, not knowing what's going to happen as they close for, in this case, three days.

markets were a little bit calmer today, but I wonder, you know, in the aftermath of the president's speech and the fact that there are troops being masked there and all these other side efforts happening, perhaps to open the straight, what the state of play is going into the weekend. Yeah, I mean, if you're looking at this weekend, you can't ignore the fact that Monday is the day that the president had said would be his deadline last week for taking any action if Iran doesn't agree to a deal. So he's threatened to do significant strikes on Iranian-elected electricity infrastructure. He retweeted a post today a video about taking out bridges in Iran, that kind of thing. So, you know, you could see a significant escalation on Monday if the president

doesn't feel he gets what he wants. Or, you know, you could always see the president extend that deadline again. That's the thing about the president, this president and deadlines. But you can't ignore that going into the weekend that that happens to fall on Monday. For sure. Amit, thank you. You back. Well, my next guest says the president's recent actions are unlikely to persuade Americans about this war, steady markets, reassure allies, or pressure Iran. Joining me now is Richard Haas. He is President Emeritus at the Council on Foreign Relations. Also, senior counselor at Centerview Partners. Richard, great to have you. It seems obviously like, you know, all of the things one might have hoped that the president's speech and maybe the policy push were to achieve is not necessarily happening in your view.

you sometimes hear this argument that there's a bit of strategic ambiguity being imposed here. You don't buy that? Well, it's certainly being imposed. It's ambiguous. But the question is whether this is a time for ambiguity. And I would say if you want to do all the things you just referred to, steady markets and reassure allies, particularly those in the region, signal or on, it's probably the time to choose. I don't know about you, but I certainly expect that when a president asks for prime time, 20 minutes, to the American people, he was going to come forward with a policy. I thought it was more likely to be to look for an exit ramp, possibly, though, we could have escalated in terms of the

straight of Hormuz. The one thing I didn't expect is essentially we would know more about American policy after the speech than we did before it. What are the plausible exit ramps you think could have been taken and presumably could still be taken? Well, the most likely one is negotiation. reopened negotiations on the nuclear file, essentially go back to the kinds of conversations we were having with Iranians beforehand to place a ceiling on capabilities, some type of inspections regime. In return, they would get some sanctions, relief, and so forth. I don't think there's a military solution to the nuclear issue.

And on the strait, it gets more complicated. But I would basically try to bring Iran in, create a new authority, a new governing authority for the strait that included some of the local. countries. We could threaten to blockade the strait, and I put forward an idea that we would blockade it in the Gulf of Oman, be militarily not very demanding operation. But I think the principle ought to be that the strait of Hormuz is either open for everybody or close to everybody and closed to Iran, closed to the countries like China or India or Pakistan or Turkey. It's been exporting oil to. Iran can't be in a position to play favorites and to treat this like an internal

waterway. There's a lot of talk that the incentives for the Iranian regime are not yet really pushing toward any kind of ceasefire or flexibility or perhaps negotiation yet. You might be right. I think the Iranians feel that they've probably got more staying power than we do. The time might be more their friend than ours, and they want to see what kind of leverage they can get. In an odd sort of way, we've done so much to them physically that there's not a hell of a lot more we can credibly threaten. The one thing we want not to do, let me just hasten to add, is what the president talked about going after, say, their power plants or their energy infrastructure. I worry that Iran would react similarly around the region and what they did the other day with

gutter and knocking out some of their gas infrastructure. They could go after the water and energy infrastructure of all their neighbors, essentially say, if you're going to do this to us, we're going to do it to everybody else. That would be a calamity for the region and for the the world. So I really would urge that we not go down that path. For as much as the president's policies of antagonized NATO allies and others, there wasn't a lot of talk of that last night. And at the same time, you do have this side effort by a lot of countries trying to figure out a solution for the straight. I guess next week we have the Secretary General of NATO coming here. I mean, how do you build a set of expectations for what that might deliver?

I think the U.S. relationship with his NATO allies was in trouble before this crisis. Quite bluntly, this alliance is a shell of what it used to be. There's not a lot of confidence we would be there, for example, if Russia were to do some intervening militarily in Europe. One thing the Europeans can and should do is get involved in the future of the strait. I thought it was a good sign that the British held a meeting today. And I think it's not impossible. We'll see forthcoming from the Europeans.

both a diplomatic initiative and a security dimension, both to encourage the Iranians to open the straight, but also a little bit of stick alongside the carrot. I think they understand it would not just be in their economic self-interest, but strategically it would help rebuild some connections between the United States and Europe that I think are in the interests of both sides. Richard, thank you very much for your time today and all that perspective, Richard Haas. Oil prices spiking after President Trump said the war. war in Iran could last several more weeks. Up next, we'll discuss how much higher they could go. Plus, former Council of Economic Advisors Chairman Jared Bernstein on the potential economic

fallout, sky high energy prices could have on the U.S. economy. You're watching Closing Bell Overtime, live from the NASDAQ markets. Welcome back to Closing Bell Overtime. The airlines ending the day in the red with every stock in the sector lower, led by American Airlines and United. The move comes as oil and jet fuel prices jump with jet fuel up nearly 8 percent today and 70 since the start of the war. Bank of America, noting that airline transactions moderated in late March and turned slightly negative by March 28th, firm saying this could be due to an earlier Easter holiday versus last year, as well as rising fuel costs and airport staffing shortages hurting consumer sentiment. While sticking with energy, crude settling at its highest level since June 2020, as the president

says it'll be another two to three weeks before the Iran war is over. Our next guy says that for the oil market two to three weeks is an eternity in shutting in shutting the straight. So what does that mean for prices going forward? Joining me now here on set is Sanky Research President and lead analyst Paul Sanky. Good to see you, Paul. Hi. So we have this sort of massive premium in terms of, you know, the physical spot markets relative to the out years. You have big parts of the world rationing fuel. How worried should we be and talk about this cumulative effect of shortfall in in barrels and and what it's going to mean for the economy? Well, obviously, the U.S. is somewhat immune from this,

but we're still dependent on global energy flows. And so whilst we won't be immediately facing rationing, such as you're having in, say, Australia, or you're going to certainly get, as you mentioned, the jet sector is going to have major issues. And by the way, the prices there, you're looking at $250-plus a barrel for jet fuel and now for diesel in Asia.

You know, the basic situation is that we have a lot of prices that are kind of suspended, as you're referring to, that there's actually no market at the moment. And therefore, you know, the ongoing crisis is only just going to get worse for every day you add. And then we're adding four weeks, which is optimistic, to begin to reshape everything back to normal. But the latest news flow, unfortunately,

over the last couple of days, as you say, has been, actually, we're going to be at this for a lot longer. Some oil will trickle out of the strait, obviously, and they'll accept payment and tether and other things to allow some out, But I think they're going to keep their foot on the throat of the global economy here until they're sure about what the military status is. I was going to say, I wondered at what point there is a threshold where we reach a level where Iran's incentives are not to throttle the global economy. We're destroying demand here and there. Obviously, they're able to sell their own production. But, you know, you had these reports about maybe trying to find some kind of agreement with Oman.

You have other countries looking to work away through. I was even seeing people saying a little more as good. getting through at this point. But is there hope in that or not? You know, honestly, I don't think so because I think the Iranians are going to want to maximize the pressure that they exert to maximize the concessions they obtain. And that is kind of nightmarish because it means that certainly whilst there's any military threat, they're going to keep oil, particularly at a trickle.

LNG is blocked. It's just a matter of fact. And, you know, really, they're going to take this to the point where they can say the U.S.-Ireilly military incursion into the Gulf is ended not only now, but it's going to never happen again. And, you know, if you think they're asking for that, which I would assume they are, this could go on even longer until we're begging for mercy, quite frankly. The further distant contracts, they've obviously up a lot, but there's still this kind of grudging move. How does that filter through to the economics of the big oil companies at this point?

And what I mean by that is, is the market giving those companies, credit, so to speak, for a higher for longer scenario yet? Somewhat. I think that we're putting in a longer term or a higher terminal value on the oils naturally, and we'd already started doing that this year. I think the Straits of Hormuz issue has clearly added to the view that long-term oil and gas has long-term value, particularly outside the Middle East. But recently, people are more concerned, obviously, about the sheer problems, economic problems that all this is going to cause, and therefore the oils haven't been performing perhaps as strongly as you might imagine.

When you go through it all, I think ultimately you are going to end up with a much more powerful Western Hemisphere oil and gas supply. So what you're seeing here, for example, is a feeding frenzy amongst private equity in U.S. oil and gas assets. Same for Venezuela. The value of Argentina suddenly changes completely. So all these metrics change greatly. On Tuesday, we'll get an 8K from Exxon, which will be the first indicator of how much of these crazy prices are coming through to the bottom line, only for one month in Q1. that would be March, but it'll give us an indicator of just how much money is being made, particularly in things like chemicals.

I was going to say, so that's going to give you a glimpse into the margins that they're able to harvest here. Yeah, and our first pass was that Exxon's earnings numbers for this year are probably 20 to 30 percent too low at the least. So you're going to see a big round of energy upgrades triggered by Exxon and then going through into results for Q1, which of course is only one month of effect. Sure, yeah. No, be worth watching.

Thanks very much, Paul. It's a pleasure. Paul Sanky. All right, still ahead. We'll discuss what tomorrow's jobs report means for the market and the economy. Plus, Tesla shareholders have been taken for a rough ride this year. Find out why the stock is hitting another speed bump when overtime return. Welcome back to overtime.

Shares of Tesla falling today after first quarter deliveries came in at $358,000. That was less than what Wall Street was expecting. Deliveries did improve on a year-over-year basis, though, up 6%. The companies posted annual sales declines now in the past two years. It was Tesla's worst day since November, with the stock now down 20% this year, and it was the worst stock in the S&P 500. Stock could face further pressure in the months ahead, of course, as attention will turn to Elon Musk's SpaceX, which just filed to go public and has a newly floated potential market cap of $2 trillion, according to some reports. Time for a CNBC News Update with Julia Borson. Hi, Julia.

Hi, Mike. Well, Pam Bondi is speaking out after President Trump announced she was leaving her role as. as Attorney General. Bondi said on X that she'll be transitioning out of the role over the next month as Deputy Attorney General. Todd Blanche prepares to act as interim attorney general. President Trump praised Bondi in a truth social post saying she will be moving to an important job in the private sector. A Colorado appeals court overturned Tina Peters' prison sentence today. Peters was serving a nine-year sentence for charges related to her efforts to sway the 2020 election in favor of Donald Trump.

The court upheld Peter's conviction, but said the judge, improperly sentenced her citing the First Amendment. Her case now goes back to a trial court for resentencing. And Phil Michelson has announced he will not play in this year's Masters Tournament, the legendary golfer, shared on social media that he will be out for an extended period of time as his family navigates a personal health matter. He also missed LiveGolf's first four events of the year. Back over to you.

All right, Julia, thank you. So a rising energy prices and concerns about the labor, market and consumer spending creating a perfect storm for a recession. Former Council of Economic Advisers, Chairman Jared Bernstein weighs in on that next. As you hit your show a break, check out shares of Blue Owl, the stock touching an all-time low in trading today after the company said it will cap private credit fund redemptions at 5% in its flagship fund. That's the latest domino to hit the public asset managers. You can see some of the ripple effect in the other big names in the sector and the alternative managers, including Ares, Apollo, and Plains.

Blackstone. Overtime, we'll get right back. Welcome out to closing bell overtime live from the NASDAQ market site. Stocks ending today mixed, but well off their lows, the Dow essentially flat, the NASDAQ, S&P, and Russell 2000, all higher. Now, for the week, all major indices ending with gains, breaking a five-week losing streak and posting their best week since late November. Oil continues to be in focus, ending up by more than 11% at its highest level since 2022. Despite the jump in oil, energy was the only set. sector in the equity market to end lower on the week. Communication services with the leaders as meta and alphabet and Netflix as well, all seeing gains of more than 5%. Let's not going to check

on the bond market after a pretty volatile week, Rick Santelli at the CME in Chicago. Hey, Rick. Yes, indeed, Mike, a very volatile week. And we started out with some really good data, 202,000 on initial claims, 1,841 on continuing claims. By any standards, these are super well-behaved. They really argue against any major downside to the labor market. If you look at a week of two-year and 10-year, we're not only lower on the day, we're lower on the week. As we sit at 380, Mike on a 2-year, we're down 1 on the day, down 11 on the week at 10-year. At 4.30 is down, 2 on the day down. Baker's dozen down 13 on the week.

But it doesn't end there. Even in Europe. Keep in mind, the boon was at the highest yield since 2011. We've seen the UK guilt soaring, but look at their week. They are also lower on the week, and that's significant, but there's one odd man out. The Japanese market continue to move higher. That makes sense. The Japanese have real energy issues, and if you look at a chart a year to date, you can see we're sitting

right at 238. That's a high-yield close of the year, matching an earlier one you see on the right side. Open the chart up. You know the last time we were closing at those yields? 1999. Let's call it 26 plus years. Mike, back to you. Markable. That's quite a chart. Rick, thank you so much. U.S. consumers are already feeling the impact of the Iran war at the pump with gas prices hovering around $4 per gallon, diesel topping $5 gallon, hitting its highest level since July of 2022. According to the most recent NABE survey, economists now see an elevated chance

of a recession as inflation expectations rise. The survey found 43 percent of response. and see recession odds at 35 to 50%. That's higher than the survey taken pre-war. 47% see a zero to half point boost to inflation from the surge in oil prices. And 27% believe will rise by half to a full percentage point. So how worried should we be about the state of the economy? Joining us now as former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors,

Jared Bernstein, Jared, great to see you. Great to be with you, Mike. I mean, standard wisdom, and it's obviously just mathematical. You know, the U.S. is quite a bit less oil dependent than we used to be. Consumers don't spend as much on energy as they used to. How big a cushion do you think the economy has against this kind of stagflationary impulse? I think it has a decent macroeconomic cushion, but I think it has a very weak microeconomic cushion. Now, obviously, those two have to come together at some point.

But I guess the point that I want to lean into, especially with all that recession talk from the NAB survey, is that for the average consumer, if the economy is growing, you know, a point versus falling a point, it can still feel pretty bad to them. If the job market is not hiring and if they're shelling out a lot more at the pump, you know, we did an estimate last week that the extra gas costs from the Iran war is going to totally eat up any extra tax refund consumers we're hoping to get from the budget bill last year. So we know folks are already pinched, and this is just making it tougher for them.

So what are the, I guess, knock on effects of all that. obviously, it's not great for a lot of people in the country. It's how they're going to feel about the economy. You mentioned weak job growth. It's fascinating. Just this afternoon, a new bit of Fed research came out that argues perhaps that the kind of maintenance level of job growth might be zero. In other words, it can keep the unemployment rate pretty much steady at that level. I mean, that's such an adjustment for how we think about the economy. Yeah, I mean, you're talking to someone who used to consider a good month, 150,000 jobs. And so if we saw numbers like, you know, 10 or 15K, we got nervous.

But because labor supply has come in so far, part of that, of course, big part of that is diminished immigration. You need fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate from going up. And in fact, we've seen that. We have an unemployment rate that's flitting around the mid-fours while we've had average job growth that's been, you know, really quite low, 10, 15K if you average out the past few months. And of course, as Rick was saying, claims very low. So we're certainly not seeing layoffs. And by the way, again, getting back to recessions, in my lifetime, you don't see a recession without layoffs in the job market.

So again, that's a good indicator if you're worried about that. But here's the thing. People are already feeling pinched on the spending side. Inflation's going up. And when you have a low hiring rate like that, it's particularly hard for younger folks to find their way into the job market. And boy, does that take a whack at it? economic sentiment. So people are feeling pretty bad about, again, the economy as they experience

on a micro kind of day-to-day level, even if you can point to them and say, well, GDP looks okay, productivity looks okay, pretty good investment in the AI space. A lot of what they're experiencing is quite tough, especially on the affordability side. I mean, as you know, obviously, that, you know, we're kind of familiar with this, where there's not a lot in the moment that can be done to prevent prices from going up. And what policy is, you know, policy levers do you think you would want to be pulling at this point, aside from, you know, you can't go back and not invade Iran at this point? Well, that's exactly where I was going to go. You're right. You're right. You can't do that, but you can avoid escalation. And, you know,

when you're sending thousands of troops to the area, when the nation expects you to give a kind of comforting speech and instead you get a bunch of, you know, truth social rants rehashed, as we kind of did last night, that's clearly making things worse. Now, look, the market started off the day exactly where I said didn't end there. But the oil price is up, you know, a good 10% or so from the day, at least it was last I looked. So certainly, you know, dialing back the escalation part of that, I think probably would be a contribution. And frankly, probably trying to be a bit more credible in the kind of discussion or announcements that administration officials are making to the public and to markets. that would help. Yeah, and I guess it just means, you know, Fed just got to wait and see and realize that

that they can't do anything in the short term at this point. Jared, really good to talk to you. Thank you very much. My pleasure, mate. Jared Bernstein. President Trump announcing his tariff plans one year ago today, so did he make the grade when it comes to reshaping the economy? The scorecard is net. Plus, shares of satellite operator Global Star jumping on a financial times report that Amazon is in talks to buy the company, but any deal could be scuttled by Apple, which owns a 20% stake in global stock. Overtime, we'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. Yes, it was one year ago today that President Trump jolted the markets with his plans for so-called reciprocal tariffs. We call it Liberation Day. See if you can spot it

on the chart. Yes, this was it right here, right before that plunge to new lows, which did bottom around April 9th, 10th of last year. I wanted to point out at least some cosmetic similarities, between the lead up to that date and what the market's been up to you here. This is the 200-day moving average. This S&P chart goes back to the end of 2024. You had this kind of gradual rally that peaked in February. Then you decline below that 20-day. Try to rally back up to it.

Well, here you go. Gradual rally, peaked actually late January this time. We go down. We try to rally back to the 200-day. So this is not to suggest we have some kind of a perfect setup for another mini-crash. But it is interesting that the market has been in kind of a correction mode and trying to discount what it thinks are the economic threats of some kind of a policy stress coming this case from oil and Iran. So we'll see. And I guess most people hoping it doesn't exactly

plot that path. But just how successful we should ask were President Trump's tariffs when it comes to reshaping the economy? Megan Kisela has the scorecard for us. Hi, Megan. Mike, I would say the one certainty in tariff policy over the past year has been uncertainty. And to that point just today, the president signed two new executive actions on trade, one of which imposes a 100% tariff on all imports of patented drugs and ingredients except for companies pledging to onshore production and make deals with the White House.

So much more to come there. But then as for the broader economic scorecard, the president really had two primary goals on Liberation Day last year. He wanted to bring back manufacturing jobs, and he wanted foreign countries and companies to start investing more in the U.S. So let's see how we did.

This chart will pull up here shows the change in manufacturing jobs year over year. For 2025, job losses in the sector actually accelerated. It was a net loss of 157,000 jobs, so a shrinking sector rather than expanding after the tariffs started to hit. And then as for foreign direct investment, here you can see the totals coming in over the past five years.

And for 2025, a decline from the year before. It was a modest fall. The total foreign investment was lower than in any year under President Biden before him. So now, these figures don't count. the investment pledges. And the White House does, of course, say that countries are promising trillions of dollars in future investment. So if that pans out, that chart that we just saw could look dramatically different in years to come. That said, though, economists do tell me that

this sort of ever-changing tariff policy is more likely to reduce capital investment. They say when companies don't know what to expect, it makes it that much harder to make a long-term pledge. Mike? And you know, Megan, I guess there might be sort of a third professed benefit of the tariff policy, which was just revenue to the government. I mean, a lot of the talk did lean on that idea for a while. And now, of course, the Supreme Court strikes down a lot of the tariffs. Supposedly it's going to be refunds. I mean, it's been hard to track exactly where that stands. But what's your best updated view on that? It is up in the year for now. Revenue certainly is up and is going to stay up because a number of tariffs remain in place on metals, on pharmaceuticals

that we saw today, as well as on certain countries as well. So revenue is definitely increasing, not nearly to the extent that would sort of make a significant impact on U.S. debt, but of course is increasing. The refunds, though, we've got a long way to go here. Hundreds of thousands of cases by most estimates have already been filed on refunds. So while this could get caught up in litigation for years, the administration doesn't want to let go of this money. It's very likely that ultimately they'll have to start giving some of it back. Now, maybe companies choose to reinvest it in ways that the administration likes, but they are likely to have to give back at least big parts of it, given that court ruling.

Megan, thank you. Our Megan Casella. Up next, we'll tell you what Wall Street is expecting from tomorrow's March job report and discuss whether it could impact trading next week. Closing Bell Overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. The markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday, but the March jobs report will still be released. Economists are expecting non-farm payrolls to rise by 59,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Average hourly wages are seen rising by 3.7.7. percent on a year-over-year basis. Be sure to tune in to a special edition of Squawk Box tomorrow for instant analysis and reaction to that jobs report beginning at 8 a.m. Eastern time.

Now, looking ahead to next week, there are just a trio of earnings to watch for, Delta Airlines, Levi Strauss, and Constellation Brands. And on the economic front, we'll get weekly jobless claims, of course, the final reading of fourth quarter GDP and personal income on Thursday, and then CPI, consumer sentiment, and factory orders will be out on Friday. CPI report will give us another glimpse into the state of inflation as the war heads into yet another week. Our next guest says if inflation does jump, investors should look to value in small caps, which tend to outperform in that scenario. Let's bring in Global Head of Macro at Janice Henderson investors, Richard Bernstein. Rich, it's great to see you. I know you've been

certainly in this thought process that inflation was the chief threat for a while and investing accordingly. Where does that stand as we try to absorb what's happening with oil? So, Mike, good afternoon. I think that we are in the midst of this change in the inflation environment. You know, I think a lot of people are pointing to the war as being the big stimulus. But I think it's one factor in many that are really causing this general trend in upward inflation here. And I think investors, the important point that I think we shall take away from this is investors are woefully underweight in what we like to call. pro-inflation assets. So I think that if one realizes there is some kind of secular change going on here, then there's plenty of time to take advantage of this. Do you think that we have to brace for

something as dramatic and disruptive as the 1970s path when it comes to this revival of inflation or this kind of persistence of an inflationary backdrop? So, Mike, I think that a lot of people have been suggesting that this is like the 1970s because they're seeing an oil shock, right? And we saw two oil shocks in the 1970s. We've actually likened this a little more to the mid-1960s, where you had a period where fiscal policy was referred to as guns and butter, meaning that there was a build-up to the Vietnam War, but we also had the social spending on the great society. And so what happened was The consensus was that spending on social programs, that spending on the war would not cause problems for the deficit and would not change the inflation outlook.

Well, of course, that proved to be wrong. So what do we have today? Well, we don't have social spending. In fact, we have somewhat of contraction. Some of the programs that were started in the 1960s, ironically, are being cut back now. But we do have this massive tax cut coming at the same time that we're seeing a buildup in defense spending. So it's not the same as the 1960s guns and butter, but it certainly is similar and something that people aren't talking about in terms of the inflation fuel that that can cause.

And these inflation assets that you say, those that would perform in that environment, are what? Now, we're talking about value stocks. Is it hard asset plays? Right. So the general theme and the way you want to think about pro-inflation assets is that they pay off more of the total return today versus somewhere out in the future, right? So think of the difference between a 30-year zero coupon bond and a money market fund. During an inflationary period, cash performs very well. I mean, you know that's heresy. You're not supposed to say that, but cash outperforms longer duration assets and period inflation. Same thing in the equity market. Dividends become very, very important because you're getting more of your total return up front

that you can still invest at higher rates of return to keep up with inflation. It's the same concept. And we know that investors have been shunning dividends looking for growth in capital appreciation of venture capital and all these very long duration equity assets. Has the momentum move in gold kind of broken its status as a call on that inflationary setup? Well, Mike, I'd like to be able to tell you that I'm a smart trader of gold. I make no bones. I make no claim to be a smart trade of a goal. We own gold in our portfolios with a pretty standard, I would say, three to five percent allocation as kind of a spare tire in our

portfolios. Why do we, why do I use that term spare tire? You can't predict when you're going to get a flat, so you always carry a spare tire. Well, gold has a very high correlation, or at least a reasonably high correlation, to uncertainty, and by definition, you can't predict uncertainty. So we tend to hold some gold in our portfolio come high or low, whatever it's doing, as kind of that spare tire for things that we can't predict. Gotcha. So it's not necessarily believing it's supposed to replace other assets in all environments, but maybe there when you need it on the side of the road. Rich, we got to run there, but really appreciate the time today. And have a great weekend. S&P 500 against many odds, up 3.30% on the week that's going to do it for overtime. Fast money

with Frank Holland begins right after this quick break.