Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Stocks End Lower After Volatile Day Following Nvidia Earnings11/20/25

Episode Date: November 20, 2025

We bring you all the action from a wild day in the markets. After Nvidia’s strong earnings, shares were up 5% in early trading. But by midday, Nvidia was in the red, dragging the rest of the market with it. Paul Hickey of Bespoke and Schwab Asset Management’s Omar Aguilar break down the market action. Earnings from Gap, Ross Stores, and Intuit set the tone for retail and software. New T-Mobile CEO Srini Gopalan on the sector’s growing competition. Tony Wang of T. Rowe Price joins to look at tech’s midday selloff and Nvidia. The nuclear-AI trade unwind with Fermi CEO Toby Neugebauer.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, that bell marks the end of regulation. Emerson, we're in the closing bell to New York Stock Exchange. We shop doing the honors at the NASDAQ, and that concludes a wild day for stocks with all the major averages, starting with gains and getting completely wiped out, solidly in the red, with more selling into the close. The Dow down about 400 points, S&P 500, a 1.5% drop. NASDAQ down a little more than 2%. And the big driver of today's action is, of course, Invidia, giving up that 5% gain after earning. in overtime and closing down 3%.

We're going to talk more about what happened to cause the reversal coming up. And as goes in video, so goes the market and especially tech. Look at the NASDAQ 100 today, down 2%. That's a swing of more than 1100 points between the high and the low of the day. Consumer Staples, the best performing sector today, the only one with a significant gain. Walmart, the main driver there following its earnings. We're going to have more on Walmart and one interesting stat you might not believe. Well, that's a scorecar on Wall Street.

Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Ford. And while we will stay on NVIDIA and Walmart, Ernie's just keep on rolling in. In just a few minutes, we're going to hear from a couple more retailers, Gap and Raw stores. And Intuit's results also due out, along with the company's announcement of some changes to the board. We're going to hear from the CEO. And the AI Undwined, also hitting the power players. Fermi losing 40% of its value so far in November, the company's CEO is going to join us.

ahead to break down what he's seeing on the front lines. But we begin with today's market reversal with Sima Modi. Simon. John and Morgan, let's break down Nvidia. It was up $230 billion in market cap at the high today and closed down roughly $100 billion for context

that $330 billion swing today, roughly the market cap of Home Depot and closing down by around 3% on the day. The hypers which initially started the day higher also reversing gains likely tied to concerns around CAPEX and and whether these companies still need to shell out more to buy AI chips from

NVIDIA, Verte, Eaton, and the industrials that are involved in the cooling, the electrical equipment used inside data centers Wipzod as well. Melius Research, Jake Levinson, telling me the move is really tied to valuations. He says there is more room to fall from here, though reiterates that the fundamental story remains strong. All of these companies continue to see big positive order surprises from the data center suppliers. Those broader concerns, by the way, around how to value some of the high flyers, that

hit Palantir. It was down another 6% in today's trade. Even companies like Paul Alto networks that delivered a strong quarterly beat on earnings and news of an acquisition that the street widely sees as positive fell by over 7%. Though Piper Sandler raising its price target on the stock to 230 a share maintaining its outperform rating. Morgan? All right. Simomodi, thank you. The crypto market, the first to see a reversal today. So let's get to McKenzie Segalos with a look at today's action across that asset class. Mac. Hey, Morgan. So as soon as Bitcoin pivoted into sell-off mode and broke below that key $90,000 threshold, tech equities like NVIDIA quickly followed suit. Now, analysts say algorithmic traders are using Bitcoin as a proxy for speculative appetite, so when it rolls over, it signals that risk-taking is drying up across the board.

Now, this all stems from that massive liquidation event last month, which knocked out key market makers, the ones who usually keep trading going smoothly. And without that support, even small sell orders can move markets. Now, we've been in a slow unwind ever since. Bitcoin is now down more than 30% from its recent all-time high. And the fallout is hitting crypto-adjacent names the hardest, including exchanges like Coinbase and Robin Hood. But one name that is taking the brunt of that pressure is strategy, the most liquid public proxy for Bitcoin.

It is down 40% in the past month. When hedge funds can't hedge their Bitcoin exposure directly because derivatives markets are too thin, or contracts too large, they short names like strategy instead. It has become the release valve for hedging pressure across the industry. John? All right, Mac, thanks. There is some release then.

Well, Nvidia's stellar results could not keep the market rally going as investors lose hope for a rate cut next month. So what will help markets get back on track? I'll join us now are Paul Hickey from Bespoke and Omar Aguilar from Schwab Asset Management. Guys, welcome. Omar, you talk about volatility and we have been that it's coming, but it doesn't feel good when it happens. We're in the 6,500s now in the S&P. Do you buy here?

Yes, we are experiencing, you know, these momentum onwind, or at least the beginning of it. We have been in this incredible momentum market for the last six months. And, you know, when you look at the different asset classes and the different stocks and different vehicles that are down, I see that, you know, whether it's cryptocurrencies, whether it's the Mac 7,

where it's technology, all those are the momentum trades that are in the process of just having probably a healthy reset. When you look at valuations, the market is still, you know, expensive even with this pullback. So, you know, what we try to do is trying to look at opportunities to this. We don't believe in market timing, so we're not trying to find that little bottom. It's really just looking at opportunities when we actually think that there may be a long-term, you know, view that make things attractive. Paul, if the market is still expensive after a drop like this, do you have to wait to buy? You know, I think in a market where the chief worry has been frothed in some of these speculative names and in the high-tech tech space, NASDAQ area, I think today, a reversal like today, while it's really disheartening at the moment, is exactly what you want to see.

What better way to get people, you know, negative on the market than to see this, you know, big gains in the morning entirely wiped out. So I think in that respect, a reversal like today is actually a good thing when you look at it. And when you look at these typical, these prior occurrences where you've seen a similar reversal like that, you saw it in 1998. You saw it in late 2008, which was a negative. But then in 2009, 11, and 2015, 2020, and earlier this year, you saw similar reversals, which were actually good buying opportunities. So I think the NASDAQ is down 8% right now from its high. We've had 25 pullbacks of 5% or more from an all-time high since the financial crisis. And the median decline is about 9%.

So we're getting there. I think I'd be, you know, if just lower prices here, make it more attractive going forward. So in that respect, I think you can start nibbling your toe in. Most of these pullbacks don't last more than a month or so. Yeah. It's interesting to hear you say that, Paul, because I've seen a number of trader notes today basically saying, these were clearing events, whether it was NVIDIA earnings, Walmart this morning, the September jobs report. So the fact that the market tried to rally and then fade and then faded through

the day are actually sort of seen as troubling, but you're adding some context around it here. So I'll ask you another question because one of the last times you were on the show, you said, government shutdown is contributing to some of the top heaviness we're seeing in the market. So now that it's back open, do we start to see a broadening out? Yeah, I mean, that's what we're expecting to see more of a broadening out, right? I mean, today, for most of the day, the small caps were actually outperforming the market. I don't know where we quite finished the day, but it was similar returns. But again, I think the Fed is looking at the way things are now, and they're confident that the economy is doing pretty well.

There's been a lack of data. Jobs data has been weak. One thing that stands out is that so far this year, the two worst performing sectors, as of yesterday's close, were consumer discretionary and consumer staples. Consumer discretionary has never been the worst performing sector in the market in a given year. And consumer, the two of them have never been in the bottom three in a given year, at least going back to 1990. The consumer is 70% of the U.S. economy. So again, well, some of the data of what we have seen hasn't been necessarily bad and consumer activity shows it's holding up. The market is sending a different signal right here. And I think so in that respect, the Fed may find as come December that we may need to

loosen policy a little bit here. Yeah, and we have seen this big, we'll say, noticeable uptick in volatility. Omar, one of the things that stands out to me in your notes is this idea that it's not just a K-shaped economy or K-shaped consumer spending patterns, but K-shaped equity market and K-shaped Federal Reserve as well. What do you mean by that? Well, you know, we see these dispersion across all different, you know, parts, you know, clearly the economy, the different experiences, the different data that we have seen from the top part of the income and the experience that we have on the wealthiest part of the society is different than the bottom one. You know, we see that wealth effect that has happened because of the results in

markets that obviously has made that consumption continue to drive, you know, most of the GDP growth this year. You know, when you see at the bottom part, you know, of the economy on those lower income, that tends to be more affected by inflation. And while they still have, you know, some resilience in their balance sheets, they clearly started to just feel the effect and that's starting to just broaden in further. Now, when you look that to corporate America, and you look at about the earnings, the overall report was pretty good. But it was very clear in the last report of earnings that we had, you know, those companies that tended to have higher, you know, capital expenditures, higher profitability, higher profit margins that ended up doing much better than

and those that didn't have those going into that. So that dispersion that basically ended up, you know, making a difference into who the winners and the losers are. It's also translated into this person, you know, within the committees at the Federal Reserve, where we haven't had that much dissent until recent of figuring out what is that they're going to do with the Fed policy and what it is for us today,

especially after the last jobs report, that that would actually mostly translate into just a pause in December. And so there's this significant case, shape that seems to be, you know, permeating across different decision processes. Okay. Omar Aguilar and Paul Hickey, thanks for kicking off the hour with us with all the major averages lower, a bid for treasuries here and a spike in the VIX in this trading session. Well, Ross Stores earnings are out, and earnings are $1.58 per share.

That's 17 cents better than consensus estimates. Revenue of $5.6 billion, same store sales rising 7%. That topped expectations. raising fourth quarter guidance for earnings and for sales growth. And CEO Jim Conroy saying he is optimistic about prospects for the holiday season. You can see shares of raw stores up about 3%. Not so different, John, than what we heard from TJX earlier this week and saw a big trade higher in that stock too.

Yeah, for sure. Well, coming up, more on retail results is Walmart surprises the street. And we are awaiting gap numbers due out shortly. Plus, we will talk to the brand new CEO of Team Mobile. just a few weeks into the job about the challenges the industry is facing right now, the state of the consumer, so much more. Overtime's back in two. Welcome back to Overtime. Walmart, a big bright spot in today's down market. The stock having its best day in three months up six and a half percent,

getting back to within a couple of bucks of its October record highs. The company beating on earnings and revenue, raising its annual forecast, and saying it is optimistic about holiday sales. But if you are worried about a bubble in AI, is there also a bubble? in big box retail. It's forward price to earnings ratio. Now, 38, that is significantly higher than Nvidia, Microsoft,

meta, and Amazon, higher than every Mag 7 stock except for Tesla. Walmart saying today it will be switching its listing to the NASDAQ after 55 years on the NYSC as well. Wow. Well, shares of T-Mobile have been under pressure since reporting third quarter numbers.

Half a billion dollar surge in CAPEX is what's being point to is spooking some investors. Now heading into the key holiday season, An analysts are wondering if the sector is headed into more competitive cycle. This coming as competitor Verizon announces major layoffs today under new management. But joining us now on an exclusive interview is new T-Mobile CEO, Shrini Gopelon. He started in the role just earlier this month, and it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.

It's great to be here, Morgan. So let's start right there, because you announced some news today, specifically about switching, and what got my attention here is the role that AI is going to play in that. Yeah, absolutely. One of the biggest pain points in this industry has been just how complex and difficult it is to switch a provider. And what we announced today was really smashing that pain point and making switching easy. It's a combination of three things. It's kind of moving switching from three hours to 15 minutes. That's where AI plays a significant role. The second piece was really giving consumers control over their phone, making them decide when how and where they get their new phone, and third, and very excitingly, having same-day delivery

with DoorDash. You put that all together, and one of the biggest consumer pain points, which is switching, has just become a lot easier. So what are you seeing with consumers, especially as we're a week out from Thanksgiving and going into the all-important holiday season? We're seeing solid, robust demand, including from our existing customers. But to be honest, Morgan, we're never going to be the Canary and a coal mine of how the economy is doing, right? Because today we're such an essential product.

We're not hugely sensitive, one way or the other to economic news. We're seeing solid, robust consumer behavior. Sreeny, what about fixed wireless? I mean, it seems like you've been taking some share there, but the fiber piece doesn't seem to be particularly strong. Is that based on what's happening in the macro and some caution out there? How would you frame it? Look, our fixed wireless product has just been incredibly strong. We're now the nation's fifth largest ISP. Fiber is something we entered about halfway through this year,

and we actually are growing incredibly quickly. We'll have close to a million customers by the end of the year just on fiber, and we've exceeded all of the consensus numbers on where we'd be on fiber. Fixed wireless access itself, we've got close to 8 million customers, incredible product that's growing really strongly and testament to the strength of our network. So broadband is a place we're really excited by because we have the opportunity to do what T-Mobile does best. Go in and attack incumbents who are overpriced for an inferior product. So we're really excited about where broadband is. Not sure where you got the fiber slowing down

from, but we aren't seeing that. Okay, not at all. So where does that fit into the switching story? are consumers and businesses taking the full bundles, taking these things together or more inclined to do it separately? The consumers make independent choices on their broadband and their wireless. Sometimes they may choose to bundle it, but sometimes they also choose to bundle phones, right? So like a family buys. Our switching focus is really on wireless.

I mean, the problem is, today, taking a new wireless connection should be the start of a new relationship. It should be like a honeymoon period. Instead, it's like a long, messy divorce. Because carriers force you to jump through all kinds of hoops, do all kinds of gymnastics to just move to a new wireless connection. And what we're focused on is smashing through that pain point using digital technology, using AI, and using same-day delivery.

It's about taking friction out of wireless. Quickly, Shreeney, I just, I want to get your take on this idea that we're entering a new competitive cycle for wireless and for communications industry, especially on a day where Verizon is announcing more layoffs. We're seeing more restructurings and even at T-Mobile. You've announced that you're going to be spending more this year. So I'm not seeing a new competitive cycle. This industry has always been very competitive. Now, the nature of that competition changes. Sometimes it's on devices.

Sometimes it's on rate plans. We're seeing a strong level of competition, which is really good for the customer. We also need to step back and look at how this industry has evolved over the last three years, right? Consumers have been better off, faster speeds, more data. At the same time, if you look across the different providers, you've seen a strong, almost 50% growth in free cash flow. So I think it's a solid, robust industry, which is competitive. And we love competitive, because the more competitive it is, the more jump balls there are. Okay.

Shereini Gopelon with Team Mobile. Thanks for joining us. Well, Gap earnings are out. Courtney Reagan has the numbers. Hi, Court. Hi, Morgan. I'm going to start with comparable sales. Total comparable sales at 5%. That's the strongest non-pandemic comp since the quarter ended January 2018. So gap is up 7%. That's twice as good as expectations. Well, Navy up 6%. Banana Republic up 4%. Athleta. That's the smallest, but still notable that it's down 11%. Earnings of 6%. Earnings of 6%. are stronger than the 59 cents the street had expected. Revenues of 3.94 billion also beating consensus of 3.91 billion. Now, Gap is raising its full-year net sales outlook to the upper end of its previous range and increasing full-year operating margin guidance. I spoke with Gap CEO Richard Dixon, who said Gap is, quote, exceeding expectations, winning with all-income cohorts with equal growth in low, middle, and high incomes. Dixon has seen consistency and strength in our consumer behavior. CFO Katrina O'Connell explained that the tariff impact estimate is unchanged this quarter, and while it did have a 190 basis point hit to gross margin, the stronger

sales that GAB had with less discounting offset most of that, leaving gross margin down just 30 basis points from last year. Dixon also acknowledges disappointment with Athletos performance, but says he believes the new president, who is just 90 days in, is taking the right steps, and he is confident the brand will reemerge. Morgan. Thanks. Shares of Gap are up 4%. Courtney Reagan. Don't miss Jim Kramer's exclusive interview with Gap's CEO coming up at 6 p.m. Eastern on Mad Money. And coming up, shares of Intuit are up about 2.5, 3% in overtime following its results. We're going to hear from the CEO before the call. And Mike Santoli is taking a deeper dive into today's failed bounce back. Overtime. We'll be right back.

Oh, welcome back to overtime. Intuit shares up. Almost 3% right now after reporting fiscal Q1 revenue in EPS that beat the street. Revenue of $3.89 billion versus 3.76 expected non-gap earnings per share at $3.34 versus 309 expected and just reiterating the full year guide. I spoke with CEOs to San Gaddaarzi about the quarter. Our business platform grew 18%. Our consumer platform grew 21%. We've got a little friendly, rivalry.

between the consumer and business platform. One tries to outgrow the other, which is, you know, fun to see. And, you know, within the business platform, our mid-market segment, which is really important, grew 40%. So we're excited about coming out of the gates strong and continuing our momentum for the rest of the year. I asked them about how small and medium-sized businesses are doing in this economy from their data of 10 million Intuit services customers. Profits and cashfuls are up a little bit. One of the things that we really look at is payroll hours, just hours worked. That's up a bit. And then when you double-click, some segments are doing better than others. You know, for instance, IT services, construction is actually doing quite well. You look at lending, insurance, real estate. It's not doing as well. On the Q2 guide, Gendarzi said he's being prudent. Yeah, on the top line, we're guiding 14 to 15%, which actually, in aggregate, is higher than, much higher than consensus.

So we actually feel good about our momentum, you know, our guide, as you just shared for the year, is about 12 to 13%. So 18% Q1, 14 to 15% in Q2. So we're on a very strong glide path. I also ask Darcy about the Open AI partnership he announced earlier this week, where chat GPT users would be able to access into its services within that app. Three aspects that I'll mention, experience sort of the data and models, and then the third is economics. On the experience, this is a game changer. The reality is you have 800 million weekly active customers that are engaging within chat GPT, and that's growing. And these folks

have a relationship with chat GPT. And up until today, when they have financial questions, right? How do I build my credit score? How do I get access to credit cards loans? How do I get my taxes done? How do I grow my business? They've all been generic answers, good answers, but generic answers. Tomorrow, that's going to change. And what's going to change is they get personalized answers through our apps. And so the customer is able to understand how do I build my credit score, getting personalized products like credit cards, loans, getting their taxes done, getting advice on how to understand how to to grow their business because we're leveraging their data to deliver personalized experiences. From a data and model perspective, what I would say is the customer is actually in our app. And so our Intuit large language models are being trained by the data. Nothing changes there. Everything is sort of accurate, reliable, safe, and secure. So nothing changes because at the end of the day, the customer is ultimately using our app within

chat GPT. So it's a game change. And we're excited about it. Some changes to Intuit's board here include adding CEOs Bill McDermott of Service Now and Adida Friedman of NASDA. All right. Let's turn back to today's volatile session. CNBC senior markets commentator. Mike Santoli is here.

He's got to look at where some of the most aggressive parts of the market sit after a failed comeback. Mike. Yeah, Morgan, kind of an amplified version of the overall market in these pictures. NASDAQ 100, obviously a big leader to the upside, spent six months. or so above its own 50-day moving average, actually crossed above it in the morning rally today as well again and then failed. Actually also kind of hit some friction at the shorter-term 20-day moving average, which sometimes is what happens if it's just kind of a reflex bounce. So it doesn't mean we go straight down from here. What it means is, you know, it sort of loses

some of the technical benefit of the doubt, has something to prove as it rebuilds that base from here or attempts to over time. Getting a little bit oversold, though, so one of those bounces is going to happen at any moment. Take a look at Robin Hood. Again, sort of the whip end of investor risk-taking in volumes and sentiment. Really big round trip it's made here. You see, it's sitting right at these levels from a few months ago. So we lost that big exuberance to the upside. Huge loss today. Very levered to crypto prices as well as a lot of those favorite retail stocks and options that have been, you know, in such huge volumes recently. Take a look here actually at a portfolio or a basket of the retail trader favorites.

This has been maintained by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and others. This goes back, as you can see, January of 2020. That was the meme stock mania. Saw what happened when it fell off a cliff in 2021 into 2022. It rebuilt from there. It's really outperformed in the first months of this year and has now come in hard. So, you know, retail investors got a lot of credit for buying the dips up along the way, including back in April.

still above water relative, this is, by the way, relative to the S&P 500, but losing ground fast, and I said all along, at some point, reflex dip buying, you're going to buy one too many to be profitable. We'll see if this is the one. Interesting. Retail investors, I mean, the trend this year has been that they have held, even as institutional money, has flowed out. Are we starting to see a shift in that here when you look at some of the frothiest parts of the market that have come off as much as they have? I mean, if there's tax, strategies involved and, you know, realizing gains, like how to think about this. I would say there's not some across-the-board liquidation going on in the data.

You definitely have seen some outflows, especially outflows from tech funds. But it's not necessarily just that there's been a big step back. But even in the price action, when it comes to crypto, just by definition, the values of those portfolios are going down. Some people have to sell some things if they were involved along the way. So I don't, I think it's much more about there, they've no long. a big source of an upside push on a consistent and reliable basis, at least in this moment, obviously this can change. I have memories of, you know, Black Friday's past when people are

home and what they want to do is trade kind of, you know, speculative stocks. So this can rekindle at any moment if there's not that much impairment of those portfolios at this point. Huh. Well, not in my house. Mike Santoli. Thank you. Time for a CNBC News update with Bertha Coombs. Bertha. John, a federal grand jury in Maryland is investigating the handling of the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Senator Adam Schiff and possibly New York Attorney General Letitia James. According to MS Now, it will reportedly also look into whether Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte and Justice Department official Ed Martin improperly appointed unauthorized people

to help in the probes. A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration's months-long deployment of the National Guard in Washington, D.C., saying it is legal without approval from local leaders. She put her ruling on pause for 21 days to allow the government to appeal. And the Trump administration announced today it will allow new oil drilling off the coasts of California and Florida. The oil industry has been seeking access to new offshore areas, but critics say the drilling, could harm coastal communities and ecosystems. Back over to you, John. Bertha, thank you.

Coming up, why today's big fate 24 hours ago, Nvidia was up 4% on earnings, bringing most of tech along for the ride. We'll look at what changed. And in the post-invedia AI reversal, nuclear stocks, once a big part of the story, continued to give back their gains today. Oakload down 10%, 7% for Fermi. Fermi's CEO is going to come up.

On the other side of this break on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. A big fade for the markets. All the major averages down big. The optimism following, or the lack of, we'll say the optimism following Nvidia's earnings was a reason for the fade. The stock was up as much as 5% after hours yesterday. But then it fell 3% in today's sessions. We saw a reversal there and then that stretched down to the broader markets. Tech, high flyers, Sandisk, and Robin Hood, both swinging more than 10% between the highs and the lows of the day. Retail earnings remaining strong, both. gap and raw stores, though those are higher right now in overtime. That's filing better than expected results on both the top and bottom lines. So on a day where the trading session included questions about consumer resiliency, John, we're certainly getting more signs that it's there here in overtime. For sure, you know, off perhaps some lower expectations for retail. On the flip side, as you mentioned, the tech trade unable to hold today, despite big numbers from NVIDIA, NASDAQ losing a more than 2% gain mid-Based.

morning, Oracle, AMD, meta, Intel, and Qualcomm, just a few of the names unable to stay in the green. So what was the catalyst for that reversal? Joining us now is Tero Price Portfolio Manager Tony Wong. Tony, I was surprised in overtime yesterday when Invidio was higher because it's usually lower. So I guess in a way, if we had gotten this immediately, I wouldn't have been surprised, but it's a lot of investors got their ankles broken. Why do you think that happen? Yeah, well, it definitely wasn't a fundamental reason, in my opinion. I mean, the results were really good. Demand is super strong, but it continues to really be able to deliver impressive products. And we are on this early S curve on a Gen TIC possibly. And so I think it's a market-wide

sell-off. You know, it's really hard to predict what the market's going to be doing in one way or another. And I think right now, the way the market is set up, you know, kind of momentum chasers are kind of dominant the day-to-day, intraday flow. So for me, what I think about is like longer-term multi-year, where the tech trends are going. And, you know, I've been on the road talking to companies for the last few weeks, and AI continues to be the most important priority. And I think we're seeing real breakthroughs, both on the model side, as we, as they're getting a lot better, and then also scaling in terms of more compute, it produces more better, more powerful models. And so I'm looking for enterprise agenic AI to take off as kind of another

catalyst here. There are a lot of enterprise software companies, Tony, that have not gotten a bid in this AI environment, perhaps over fears that this new wave, these large language model providers are going to commoditize them. But I don't imagine that's going to happen to everybody. So where should investors look for value in software? Perhaps it hasn't been caught up as much in the AI hype so far? Yeah, I think that is definitely something that's very top of mind. I think that more and more you're seeing that these models can do a lot more and that oftentimes you don't need to upgrade your software system,

it's a system of record potentially, and the large language model can build a lot more of it. I think that you're seeing OpenAI and other model builders kind of go more vertical in their aspirations. And so, you know, I think that you more and more need to be the platform that orchestrates the intelligence and the agent. So, you know, I think Microsoft has a real right to win here. You know, they've got compute, they've got model, they've got entrenchment in the enterprise. But I think a lot of these kind of small, medium-sized software vendors that kind of serve in marketing or sales and marketing, I think those

are going to be, can be really tough. There's just a lot of innovation in that space, and we don't know kind of how that will change the dynamics exactly. Is Nvidia still a must-own? With the stock selling off, do you buy more here? I think that Nvidia continues to be the platform company. And, you know, in terms of designing the whole system, like, you know, we have a lot of good catalysts in terms of them being able to unlock new TAM. And a lot of times, like, when you are pushing the boundaries of frontier models, you need

that compute. So as long as the scaling laws hold, and NVIDIA is a platform, you know, kind of AI company, I think that things are getting harder to deliver the performance. And so I think that plays right into what NVIDIA does. And I think the whole space, the TAM is growing for a compute. And so I continue to think that AI infrastructure is largely a multi-year build out here. Okay. Tony Wong. Thanks for joining us.

Great. Thanks. Share is a Fermi, which provides power for AI data centers, losing roughly half their value since going public at the start of October. But up next, the company's CEO and co-founder joins us on concerns the AI power trade is unraveling. And later we'll discuss how the rate of permanent job losses in the September employment report could impact both the Fed and the struggling market when overtime returns. Welcome back to overtime. shares of bath and bodyworks, who down 25% taking a bath today after missing Wall Street's earnings estimates and cutting its full year outlook. The company citing weak discretionary spending and an increase in promotions, also flagging a, quote, very challenging start to the

key holiday season. Stocks down nearly 60% this year. Well, as the AI tech trade goes, so do a lot of other trades. Power company Fermi was hired by more than 6% this morning before reversing course and closing lower by more than 8.5%. That, as NVIDIA sold off, Fermi went public on October 1st as the same day as the government shutdown at an IPO price of $20 per share. It's now trading below that. It's down nearly 40% in the past month as a broader AI infrastructure trade has come under scrutiny. That said, energy use by the hyperscalers? Take a look at that chart. It's grown more than 25% in each of the past seven years. It's not expected to slow down anytime soon. So joining us now to put it all in context in an

exclusive interview is Fermi CEO Tony Niagara Bauer. Fermi aims to produce energy for the AI buildout with a combination of nuclear, natural gas, and solar. And Toby, it's great to have you on. Welcome. Hey, thank you so much for having me on. Looking forward to the conversation. All right. So you're on the front lines of this AI infrastructure buildout. And you specifically are focused on private power generation, private grids. What are you seeing in real time right now? Well, I think, and we've had just a number of calls even this week from some of the developers that have been the largest on the grid power developers for AI data centers in the world. And the bottom line is the grid has run its course. You're looking at, we've spent $3 trillion on the grid over the last 15 to 20 years and have gotten zero growth with it.

The companies that you've been talking about, your last guest talking about, their AI compute. expectations are growing at 35, 40, 45%. You can only have as many smart electrons like those companies sell as you do have dumb electrons to power that growth. And Fermi is uniquely qualified to provide the platform for the dumb electrons to make the most smart electrons in the world.

Okay, I mean, you've got ambitious plans to bring, what, 11 gigawatts of private grid power online in the coming years? How quickly can you do it? and perhaps most importantly, do you already have tenants for it? The answer is this is the largest energy construction site going on in the world today. We are constructing 11 gigawatts today. And as you may have seen from our press reports, our first tenant put down $150 million,

and we are already constructing their site right now. So I hope that someday we could have CNBC out there because you will be proud of your country because the speed and the velocity by which we're building the world's largest energy project will absolutely blow your mind. We had the biggest investors in the world this week and their mind was blown. I mean, we talk about this AI arms race and from a geopolitical perspective, that's a quite literal phrase. And it is sort of pitted against it's this idea of the U.S. versus China. And when you talk about power and power as a thing that's holding up capacity and compute capability, China is outpacing us here. So I want to get your thoughts on that. Well, think about it. China has 33, what is the derivative of the AP 1000. Fermi America has the only

application for the AP 1000 on file with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. I can assure you that China is not building those 33 nuclear reactors to lower air conditioning rates. in Shenzhen. A modern superpower has nuclear-powered submarines, has nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and a modern superpower has nuclear-powered artificial intelligence. What's extraordinary about the Fermi site is it's the cradle of America's nuclear arsenal. It's where we make all of them, really essentially on our site. So it's so appropriate that we're launching America's artificial nuclear-powered artificial intelligence platform on the state. side in Amarillo.

The political question is percolating here, that AI is contributing to higher power prices for consumers. How do you respond to that? Yeah. I think that the business model that the prior AI data center developers were using, which we were basically asking for a subsidy from the rate payers, and that's just not going to work. And that's one of the key backbones of our business model, which is we're really.

going to build the grid, the utility. Think about our 11 gigawatts is two New Yorks. And so we're going to build two New Yorks specifically for the AI compute creators. And we are not going to burden the consumer. So when we add 11 gigawatts in Amarillo, we're actually helping the grid in the northeast. We're heading helping the grid in Texas because it just lowers the demand and the burden on the entire grid. Sorry. Okay. Toby Nagabauer. Thanks for joining me. Thank you.

Faramie, CEO. Shares of data analytics company, Elastic, are down sharply here in overtime. About 11.5% after reporting an earnings beat and a guidance raise. We're going to hear from the CEO next before he dials into the call with analysts. Welcome back to overtime. Elastic reporting a beat and a raise for fiscal Q2 with revenue at $423 million versus $418. expected and non-gap earnings per share at 64 cents versus 58 expected. Elastic raised full-year total revenue guidance by $18 million. Maybe investors wanted a more aggressive guide. Stocks down 11.5%. But the CEO sounds bullish. I spoke with Ash Kulkarney earlier today.

We are being used as a context engineering platform now. So anytime customers want to build agentic applications, want to implement, you know, AI-based search. techniques like semantic search and so on. Ours is the data retrieval platform that they use for all kinds of semantic connections between the large language model and us. And so we saw a lot of really large commitments, really large deal flow this quarter,

both in AI, which is great to see, but also in platform consolidation. And this quarter, we had a record number of deals, outside of our regular Q4, which tends to be usually the biggest quarter. But we had five deals over 10 million in total contract value and two, over 20 million in total contract value. He sees them being sort of a common AI across multiple cloud providers. We'll see how investors respond to that over time.

All right. We'll be watching. Well, up next, Mike Santoli dives deeper into the September jobs report. And why it may give more ammunition for the Fed's doves to push for a rate cut next month. Welcome back to overtime. Let's bring back Mike Santoli to look at the jobs report and what might prompt another rate cut, Mike. Yeah, so still some ambiguous sets of data out there in the job market, John.

This is from the same household survey from September that was released this morning that showed the unemployment rate on the whole up to 4.4%. It's the percentage of job losers as a proportion of the entire civilian labor force. Now, permanent job losers just means that they're not on temporary layoff. It doesn't mean they're never going to work again. The absolute level, about one and a quarter percent of the job of the civilian labor force is not extremely high, but you can see when you start to have this measure go on the rise, you know, it has been a prelude to recession when it tends to accelerate. So this would go, I guess, in the category of ammunition for the doves who feel as if the Fed are to be cutting sooner than later to get ahead of any further weakness in the job market.

It just seemed as if the overall tone of the numbers with the 119,000 net new jobs created, maybe kind of forestalled any hope that the doves would prevail in December, but we still have some time. Reason to do it if they're so inclined, but a lot of dissension there lately. Without a doubt. I mean, the messaging coming from at least half of the committee is that they're just not inclined at this point. We're not going to get new inflation numbers that perhaps could sway some of them.

So that does remain a concern for the market. I don't think because the market really thinks the economy is shuttling to the downside, but because why not get out in front of this? People see this also as a disinflationary force out there. You obviously have a lot more people on the sidelines. More labor slack tends not to be all that inflationary. So I think that's why it's a good debate. I think one of the things the market's contending with is it seems like we're not headed

for a clean resolution of this debate, whether it takes the market actually acting up a little bit more and having volatility go up and all the rest of it. Financial conditions tightening to move the needle. That's kind of the hard way to get a cut if we're going to head that there. Okay. Well, I guess maybe we're looking for an easier, softer way then. Mike Santoli, thank you. Yeah, we'll tell. Tomorrow, I'll have exclusive sit downs with the related company's founder, Miami Dolphins, owner, Stephen Ross, on the state of the commercial real estate market, plus Jim Crane, owner of the Houston Astros.

He's the CEO and founder of Industrial Powerhouse Crane Worldwide Logistics. You don't want to miss either of these conversations. Neither of these gentlemen speak very much on TV, and both will have unique insights into the state of the economy, not to mention sports valuations. And in the absence of macro data for so long, and with these market gyrations being so unpredictable, as we just saw in the past 24 hours with NVIDIA, that qualitative data is going to be especially valuable. Yeah, U.S. November flash PMIs will be that much more important to your point because of that tomorrow, too. In the meantime, huge moves in the markets, lots of volatility in a month where we don't typically see that much volatility, and not just in stocks, but also in the bond market as well. Some perhaps cautious, guides prudent, the CEOs might say, affecting some of the stocks in overtime today. We'll see what they do tomorrow.

All right. That does it for us here in overtime.