Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Tesla Kicks Off Big Tech Earnings 4/22/26

Episode Date: April 22, 2026

Julie Biel, Chief Market Strategist at Kayne Anderson Rudnick, lays out the broader market theme and explains how investors should think about positioning as earnings and macro forces collide. Tesla headlines earnings. Seth Goldstein of Morningstar reacts to the results and what they signal for demand, margins and the EV landscape. Reports from IBM, Lam Research, ServiceNow and Texas Instruments add further insight into enterprise tech, semis and AI-driven spending trends. Gargi Chaudhuri of BlackRock on the firm’s spring outlook and discusses where she sees opportunity across equities and portfolios. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell's bringing an end to the trading day at the NYSC, KALIC's ringing the closing bell and at the NASAC, versus MET royalties, doing the honors. Welcome the closing bell over time. We're live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Melissa Lee, along with Mike Santoli. Stocks bouncing back after two down days to start the week. The Dow gaining nearly 350 points. The S&B higher by nearly 1%. And a new closing high here, the NASAC gaining 1.5% also a closing record. We'll have much more on the market's gain coming despite oil prices moving higher. And our team is standing. by for earnings from Tesla, IBM, Service Now, Lamb Research, and Texas instruments, and several others that we are also watching. You know, 1% gain in the S&P looks pretty clean. We have a new closing high, everything fitting together, but really much spottier than that. Markets

protecting itself by buying AI-related growth tech. Max 7 up 1.6%. You know what was up 1.3%? Microcap stocks, the microcap index. Wow. Weed stocks flying, crypto-related stuff. So you have this current of, I think, overheated speculation on one side, the market trying to protect itself by hiding an AI. And then the average stock does nothing. And consumer cyclical is down more than 1%. I don't even know, though, if you can call it hiding an AI because the parts of the trade that were hot are the hot parts of the AI trade.

So you take a look at a micron, for instance, levitating 8.5% today's session. Western Ditch, Seagate. Those are at new highs here. So it's the hot part of the AI trade that's really catching the bid. That's right. Yeah. So when I say hiding, it means that they're just. kind of overplaying that hand because they're not comfortable, don't have high conviction on

the real economy stocks. Well, as we mentioned, tech, the best sector in the S&P today. As chips continue their recent run, let's bring in Sima Modi for the details here. Seema. Hey, Melissa, well, tech certainly propelled the NASDAG 100 and S&P 500 higher today, better than expected earnings from Europe's ASM International lit a rally across the sector. Despite news of Google's latest competing chip, the Philadelphia's Semiconductor Index is now higher for 15 consecutive days. This is the longest streak since 2014. And memory chip players that you mentioned, microns, sandisks, all rallying to new highs, while the IGV software ETF saw its eighth straight day of gains.

The key question is if earnings will change that story or provide more conviction. Palantir was a bright spot after revealing a $300 million contract with the U.S. Department of Agriculture to modernize farmland. It really underscores the company's growing relationship with the U.S. government stockup. over 4.5% today. Another positive read on tech came from GE Renova, which has quickly become the go-to supplier of energy equipment for the hyperscalers. That stock ending at a record high following a beat in raise. More on that later. Finally, Boeing, lighting a rally across airlines as it regains its lead over Airbus and quarterly sales beating expectations,

although United Delta and Southwest ending lower on the day, guys. Seema, thank you. All the markets gains today coming despite a gain in oil. Let's get to Pippa Stevens. for the latest on energy prices. Pippa. Hey, Mike, oil rising today after Iranian state media said it seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz with the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center saying it received a report of a vessel being fired on and now stopped in the water. That does follow President Trump announcing he will extend the ceasefire and that the blockade will continue, which Iran has taken issue with.

Now, the Pentagon reportedly telling Congress it could take six months to fully clear Hormuz of mines. That's according to the Washington Post, citing his senior defense Department official. Now, EIA data released today showed that U.S. crude exports stick down last week, but product exports, that includes gasoline and diesel, hit a record 8.08 million barrels per day. Domestic gasoline stockpiles now below the five-year average for the first time this year. Now, there's been a lot of discussion around how long Iran could withstand a blockade from an economic standpoint, given oil and gas, are more than 80 percent of total export revenue. J.P. Morgan's saying a total loss would be an acute economic hit, but added that for the time being,

has 176 million barrels of crude on the water. Guys? Pippa, thanks. Pippa Stevens. Texas Instruments earnings are out. That stock is surging after hours. Christina Parks and Nevelas got the numbers. Christina. It's surging because it's a top and bottom line beat

and guidance was extremely strong. This is an analog chip company exposed to industrial's auto and now data centers. They posted EPS earnings per share of $1.68, higher than the street on revenues of $4.8 billion. Last quarter they missed on revenue, so that was a strength there. Their Q2 EPS guidance came in in a range of $1.77 to $205, much higher than the 157 the street wanted. Same situation for their Q2 revenue guide coming in much stronger than the street anticipated.

Although the company did speak at a TMT conference back in March saying that they did see some strength in automotive, specifically within China, they said for this particular report, they saw the strength come from industrial and data centers. So those are the two drivers for this company. Paul, we should be expecting more comments about a reduction in CAP-X, which will help free cash flow. Guys? Christina, thanks. Christina Parts-Nellas. Let's get to Tesla. Those numbers are out. We go straight to Phil a beau for those. Phil. Melissa, what we have is a beat on the top line or on the bottom line, it should say, from Tesla earning 41 cents a share. The street was expecting 37 cents a share for the first quarter. Revenue coming in a little shy of expectations at 22.39 billion.

The street was expecting 22.64 billion. We're just starting to go through. the release in terms of any data points, but one that stands out is that Cybercab and SemiTruck, the Tesla SemiTruck, volume production on schedule to start this year. We're going to dive back into the release and hopefully have a little bit more in just a little bit. Melissa, back to you. Yeah, keep us posted, Phil. Thanks. We're seeing that stock react immediately up by 4 percent here.

We'll keep you abreast of the headlines as they cross. Now let's get to the bond market, which has been closely watching oil, of course, but today also taking its key from a big auction this afternoon. Santelli joins us from Chicago. Hey, Rick. Hi, Melissa Lee. Not a lot of investors pay strict attention to the 20-year bond auction. It's kind of the odd man on the curve, like the seven-year. But today's $13 billion found very solid demand by investors, and you really need to put that in a thought process. Why are investors stepping up in the odd man on the yield curve? I think there's some optimism out there.

Now, let's look at a chart. Six-hour I pick. Let's look at tens and twenties, and you can See right there, right around 1 o'clock Eastern, where the market went down and yield and pretty much established the sideways trend. That was the results of the auction. Now, oil, it's what I call grabbing track. If you look at oil on a 12-hour chart with tens, obviously they're on top of each other, and it's every day. However, oil's up a lot more than yields are up on any given day.

And the reason is that when the session begins, we pay attention. Then, when oil goes higher overnight or opens higher, we move sideways. Once it starts the trade, we grab in. But the correlations are a little odd. And I think the best way to pursue this is to realize that the beginning of the conflict, and the next chart is the total conflict in a 10 year from the 25th of February to today. And you can see that the left side was that yield of 394 on a close. Open the chart up.

That happened to have been a 17-month low-yield close. And I'm not dismissing how much yields have gone up. But in context, that really does make a difference, especially when you look at the chart going back to October, when that low comp two. And ultimately, we want to see how the market looks going in tomorrow. We'll get initial continuing claims we have had a real dearth of data. I know earnings have been good.

The Treasury market is acting as though not only are the optimistic potential on the conflict, but it certainly seems optimistic based on some of the earnings we're seeing and the baseline for the U.S. economy. Mike, Melissa, back to you. All right, Rick, thank you. Well, stocks moved higher today as upbeat earnings reports helped lift investor sentiment. So are investors right to look past the geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices and focus on earnings growth? Joining us now is Kane Anderson-Rudneck chief market strategist, Julie, good to see you. Thank you for having me. Obviously, we can take some comfort in the fact that earnings estimates

have been going higher and, in fact, the beat rates look pretty good. On the other hand, past two quarters, we had stellar earnings results relative to expectations. And the overall market wasn't able to do much with that until right now. So how do things look to you right now? I think broadly speaking, that's what we're looking for, a broadening. And a lot of what the earnings growth that we had been seeing previously was really concentrated. And now we're finally getting some expansion that's moved beyond. And some of that is helped by the support that we're seeing in terms of the one big, beautiful bill and what have you. The thing that's really difficult is we keep getting these very, very intense news headlines that give everyone a lot

of pause, everyone a lot of heartburn. But at the end of the day, earnings estimates continue to rise. And that really kind of indicates that businesses are figuring out a way to muddle through all of this noise and manage through this uncertainty in a way that they can still deliver profit growth. Julie, say right there, we've got IBM earnings out. We want to go to John Ford for those. John. Yeah, Moisa. IBM reported Q1, 2026 revenue of $15.92 billion versus the 15.62 billion consensus, non-dap EPS, a buck 91, 10 cents better than expectations. Software beat with Red Hat growth, rebounding to 10%. Now, despite that beat, CEO Arvin Krishna, telling me exclusively before the analyst call that IBM is maintaining, not raising full year guidance after just one quarter because of the many potential effects of global events like the war happening right now in Iran. Krishna telling me, is there going to be an issue around oil as inflation goes up? Will that drive people to spend a bit less?

I'm not predicting any of this will play out. But in the face of those possible headwinds, we think maintaining our guide is prudent. I asked about stability across the world. He said Western Europe is maybe a yellow flag. He said they've gone through these shocks a few times. They actually come out okay. I think this time around is an open question. I don't think anyone will know the answer for another month or two.

Finally, I asked him about mythos, that anthropic model on cybersecurity. He said it is a big deal, but it's probably not the only one out there. He said, we think it's the only thing. Three months later, somebody copies it and actually does it better. The intent is to find and exploit vulnerabilities. I'd be surprised if somebody else hasn't already done it, but hasn't bothered to claim it, saying that people have to layer on protections instead of expecting that they're going to be able to plug every whole guys. but IBM stock, the expectations had ramped into this print,

and you can see I think it was a little bit lower despite the beat last year. Look, guys. Yeah, John, down 4.8% right now it's an emerging theme. Companies being a little conservative about projecting ahead, even if they've beaten in the first quarter. Thank you very much. Lamb Research earnings also out. Christina Parts Nevelas has those numbers. The stock is up almost 5% on an EPS and revenue beat.

The company actually hasn't missed their earnings per share in the past four years. We saw an EPS beat of about nine cents on revenues of $5.84 billion. They saw strength in system revenue, in customer support revenue. I should preface that this is a company that designs chip equipment, process equipment, I should say. For their Q4 guide, they did provide a higher range, 1.65. That's the midpoint, the street 101.1.45 in terms of EPS. And then revenue for Q4 also came in higher. So across the board, you're seeing a strong B.

for guides. So that was a big driver. And also, I should say gross margins ticked higher, too. And they're predicting that gross margins will increase to about 50.5% in the fourth quarter, higher than the 49% the street wanted. So this is a strength for lime research, guys. For sure. Christina, thanks. Let's get back to Phil Lebo for a bit more on Tesla. Phil. Mike, I want to give you some metrics that are going to get a fair amount of attention as people go through the Tesla earnings report. First of all, the company's operating cash flow for the first quarter, $3.9 billion free cash flow, which some thought might be negative, coming in at positive $1.4 billion. And then there are FSD subscriptions.

Remember, at the end of last year, they had $1.1 million. It's now $1.28 million FSD subscriptions. That's an increase of 51% year over year. The company says it's Optimist Factory is expected to begin production shortly in Q2. And one last note, I reached out to Dan Ives because we haven't been able to calculate the gross margins yet. said, hey, what's the gross margins? What do you have? He has it at 21.1%. Now, we haven't gone through and done the numbers ourselves, guys, but if that holds, if it's 21.1%, that is well above what the street was looking for. 17, 17.5%. That was the gross margin. Most people were

going to say anything above that is positive, anything below would be negative. Guys, I'll send it back to you. That would be X credits, the 21.1 number? Again, we haven't done the numbers ourselves. And I just reached out to Dan, and he says that's what he has. All right. We'll continue to dig. Phil, thanks. Service now earnings are out. Let's get to those. John Ford's got the numbers. John. Got those as well. You can see ServiceNow stock is down quite a bit, but it's not because it was a miss, just perhaps not as big of a beat as the street is used to. Enterprise Software Maker beat Q1, 2026 consensus on the top and bottom. Revenue, 3.77 billion versus 3.74 consensus. Non-gap earnings per share, 97 cents just about in line. The company said full year subscription revenue. is going to be $15.75 billion to $15.75 billion, that's $15335 to $775, up from 15.53 to $15.57. But that includes some upside from acquisitions closing sooner than expected.

I did speak exclusively with Bill McDermott before the call. He said that they're being especially disciplined on cost. He said, we're going to have the same headcount running at service. now to start the new year in 2027 as we entered the new year in 2026. And then the margin expansion as well as revenue acceleration will continue in a steadfast manner. First time he said that he also pointed out some of the issues in the Middle East that he's talked about before. They are baked into the numbers. He said because it's on-premise stuff that was affected by the war there. He said you do have an immediate impact. You're watching it closely.

but CRPO, the pipeline, still growing, sizably, especially deals over a million, deals over five million. He says they are confident in their plan, guys. Back to you. John, thanks. John Ford, and we're watching a precipitous decline in the stock of Mike down about 15% of service now, exactly, on the back of those results. It's interesting that we're starting to hear more about the impact on the Middle East.

John, I just outlined in terms of on-premise work slowing that's going to have an immediate impact. And we also heard from IBM, Western Europe. There's a yellow flag there, so we don't know how higher oil prices, the energy shock is going to impact. Yeah, a reminder that, obviously, mega-cap tech stocks are very globally exposed. Exactly. And IBM, in particular, obviously, reliant on corporate spending outside. Yeah, Julie, your thoughts initially on sort of the warnings.

I don't want to say warnings, because that sounds like they're taking down guidance on the back of it, but just sort of like raising the notion that there could be an impact on business because of the war. among the tech sector? Yeah, I think that global exposure starts to make it really difficult for them to have any kind of clarity on how people are going to be spending. I think in general, if you think about the European market and its appetite for AI, given its trends in protecting labor, I think that probably adoption will be a little bit slower. But I think now this is an even bigger question mark of how much do we want to invest in these

new technologies. And so I think that could be a tough road for them to climb. and knowing, too, that all of the business and the plans that have been in the Middle East, this also makes things a lot more uncertain. It's kind of nice being in small-capt land for me because a lot of these issues become less problematic. It's more about the commodity than anything else. But I think for the large-cap investors, it is something you have to keep in mind. And within small-cap, Julie, I mean, obviously there's been a big springback higher

as the correction has given way to this chase. But it has been skewed. You know, I always look at the Russell 2000 versus the S&P Small-Cap 600. to talk about whether it's lower high quality. And the Russell, lower quality is beating the small cap if you go back, you know, several months. Yeah, it's an unprecedented gap right now that we have. If you just do a really blunt instrument of looking at higher-R-We versus lower, are we? The gap that we're seeing, it doesn't really exist in large-cap, but it really exists in small-cap.

And I think it's the preponderance of companies that are biotech, the companies, you know, in quantum computing that are really driving the charge. A lot of investors move to those types of more speculative cyclical businesses when you exit recessions. And I know we're not in a recession, but we are exiting a small-cap earnings recession. And so to me it makes sense that these have rally. That's what typically happens. But eventually, the quality of the fundamentals, they will start to shine through. And so right now, quality is on sale. Is there a concern on your part, Julie, about the impact of the energy shock on small caps in particular,

are a group that may not have as much ability to pass that cost on or to squeeze that cost from suppliers? It's exactly right. I think that part of the reason why we saw a small cap earnings recession is that many of these businesses are more commodity-like and they have less pricing power. That's why I think that it's really difficult to own small-cap passively is you give yourself exposure to a lot of low-quality, you give yourself exposure to a lot of a lot more energy than you might think, a lot more industrials and companies that are really price-takers. find higher quality, but you just have to be really, really selective in this space. Julie, great to see you as always. Julie Beal. Thanks very much. Shares of Tesla moving higher following its results coming up, instant reaction to the numbers

and what we should expect to hear on the conference call. You're watching Closing Bell overtime live from the NASDAQ market site. Welcome back. Lidoo Lemon shares are down about 5% as a company names a new CEO. The company naming Heidi O'Neill, who is a 25-year Nike veteran to the top post. She will take over effective September 8th. Lulu's current interim co-ceos will continue to run the company as they have been doing since Calvin McDonald left in January. It's an interesting story, obviously, that they've got sort of a proxy fight going on, so we've got that going. But then this announcement.

Yeah, with the co-founder, obviously a lot of people think maybe that could cataly some kind of a deal or a shake-up of the board. And this might seem as if it's a little more business as usual, even with a new person in charge. So, you know, I'm not sure. 25 years at Nike obviously knows the industry, but the street initially is feeling like maybe that doesn't mean a quick turn. Right, right, or a big change either. Let's get another look at shares of Tesla. They're higher still after reporting Q1 results moments ago.

One of the highlights, free cash flow, $1.4 billion, which is more than expected. CapEx 2.49 billion dollars. Joining us now, Seth Goldstein from Morningstar with his take on the numbers. Seth, great to have you with us. What were some of the other highlights here? we were sort of trying to figure out what gross margins were. What do you have? Well, I calculated company-wide gross margins 21.1%. If you exclude the $380 million of regulatory credits, I get to about 19.7%. So just below 20% from a gross margin standpoint. But Tesla's in the

midst of transitioning from an automaker to an AI and robotics company. And so I look to see what was the progress on a Robotaxie. Surprising to see that in Houston and Dallas, they immediately started with unsupervised, rather than what they did in Austin, which was starting with the safety driver. And so that tells me the software is progressing, it's working. And they mentioned they're preparing to launch in five more cities still in the first half of this year. I'm hoping they can confirm that on the earnest call.

But it seems like the robot taxi business is progressing nicely through the transit through testing. And then we go to AI and optimist. And it seems like the optimist production is still on track for production this year. year. And so Tesla's transition appears to be well underway with strong first quarter results. So, Seth, I mean, obviously you mentioned the robotics progress and the self-driving stories, at least progressing a little bit. I sort of, you know, kind of take a wider frame and say, stock is trading where it first got to five years ago. It trades $20, 30 billion worth of stock a day. And I mean, people, what are we actually doing here in terms of trying to figure out when the

future is going to arrive for Tesla as opposed to figuring out? if the future's now been handed off to SpaceX and XAI, which is about to come public. Yeah, yeah. Well, I think both companies are going to be coming out with some very innovative and new products. But from the Tesla side of things, I think there's a lot to be excited about here. And that is the transition is well underway to becoming an AI and Robiles company, which is what a $400 per share valuation is implying that they're successfully able to transition a company from just being an automaker and battery maker.

And so Tesla is doing a great job with testing their Robotaxi. I think that's got investors excited. If we would have seen delays in launching to new cities this year, I think the stock would be down, but with progress on unsupervised there, I think we can see that Tesla is a real entrant in a Robotaxie now with Waymo and expanding quickly to new cities much quicker than Waymo was able to do so, which was the whole theory behind camera. only vision is that Tesla could learn to drive on any road and not need months or years of testing to launch a robot taxi in a new area, and we're seeing that right now.

So the transition is underway. Seth, where in your model is the revenue transition? Well, I think we start to see revenue growing exponentially, but from a very small base even this year. And so I think we see AI becoming a meaningful part of revenue, meaning over 10% within five years, up to about 25% within 10 years from now. And so the transition will be well underway, but still won't be the majority of the business anytime soon because you're going to have very strong growth in another business, the battery business, which we had a down quarter, but I think longer term, we'll still see strong double-digit growth at high profit margin. I was going to ask you about the energy storage business. I mean, this is two down quarters in a row,

isn't it for Tesla? And what's happening there? Is it just about, you know, less investment in renewables, which are big users of the battery packs? Yeah, you know, the first quarter was a bit surprising to me, given that we were down even year over year. But, you know, the thing to remember is both deployments and revenue in this business can be very lumpy based on when customers want to take possession of it. And we had a very harsh winter. And so I wouldn't be surprised if some deployments were pushed out to Q2.

Now I'll be very interested in the second quarter if we see another down. down quarter, that could be a sign of some demand weakness or potentially, Cecil, losing some market share to other energy storage players like a CATL or a BYD. But for one down quarter to start the year, it could just be a timing incident. And I would expect to see them make it up in Q2, if that's the case. All right. Another thing to watch, Seth. Thank you very much, Seth Goldstein. Coming up, we're digging deeper into some of today's big movers, including a biotech getting some takeover interest, an AI build-out darling that keeps powering higher, and a very hot stock, turning very cold really fast. Over time, we'll be right back.

Shares of biotech company in Hibriks jumping again today and now up 82% in a month. The company is reportedly drawing interest from several companies, including Merck, the German company also named Merck, as well as a Japanese pharma company. In Hibriks' experimental cancer drug is being tested alone and in combination with Merck's Ketruda, which is the world's best-selling prescription drug. in Hipparck's closing today at $108. That is down from an intraday high of 155. Let's turn to another today's big winners.

GE Vernova jumping after a big beep. Sima Modi spoke with the CEO. Joins us for a closer look at those results. Seema. Hey, Mike and Melissa, with GE's Vernova's results today, really underscore how a growing percentage of AI budgets are going towards energy as competition amongst the hyperscalers continues to heighten

GE-Vernova's order book in the first quarter, surging 71% year-over-year. CEO Scott Strasic telling me that just in the month of April, gas power bookings have exceeded all of the first quarter. Electrification, though, that was the standout. Strasik explained as data centers move further away from big cities, there is a growing need, right? For transformers, high-voltage systems that can transmit electricity, he adds that customers in tech have become smarter about their energy needs. I pressed him on how open-A.I. and Anthropics energy plans compare. He wouldn't give exact details, but he did say, quote, demand is diverse. I also asked him whether it was a concern

that the data center build out is being increasingly funded by debt guys. And he dismissed those issues but said we're comfortable with the credit profile of everything that we have in backlog and on contract. These customers, he said, are generating a lot of free cash flow. Mike. It's remarkable, Seam. I mean, they're kind of in a sweet spot within the sweet spot of the market in so many ways. In the whole theme, there's, of course, an ETF for that AI power is actually a theme, and G.E. Vranova is the largest holding in this particular E.T.F., which is up huge on a year-to-day basis. What's interesting to me is because they're sold out in the near term, for the most part,

every time the stock goes up a lot, implicitly, it's the market saying this is going to last even longer, or they're going to have such aggressive pricing for what their backlog already looks like right now. I just wonder where the limits are of that. Yeah, I think the idea is that the pipeline continues to grow if you want a gas power, equipment of any sorts, you're going to be waiting till 2030. And I think there were concerns about whether this demand would continue over the last three weeks. There have been two developments, right? Oracle, it's tie up with Bloom Energy, which really focuses on fuel sales, nothing to do with gas. And then you had Maine banning data centers, which raise questions about the energy

needs of data centers over the long term. But today's results underscore that demand remains strong. The order book is long. And again, pricing also remains quite strong as well. Seema, thanks. Seema Modi. Time now for a CNBC News update with Angelica Peoples. Angelica. A federal appeals court in Los Angeles today blocked a California law requiring federal immigration agents to wear some form of identification. The Trump administration sued to challenge the law, saying it would threaten the safety of officers. The three-judge panel issued an injunction pending appeal, saying the law attempts to directly regulate the administration in the performance of its government functions. A chemical leak at a West Virginia plant today killed two and sent 10 others to the hospital. Authorities say the leak happened at the catalyst refiner's plant as workers were preparing to shut down part of the facility. And predictions platform, CalShe today said it caught and fined three candidates running for office who placed bets on their own elections. The candidates were from Texas, Minnesota, and Virginia.

The announcement comes as Calshi faces scrutiny from Congress and the CFTC over prediction markets. CNBC and Cali have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment. Guys, back over to you. Angelica, thanks, Angelica Peoples. Up next, another check on the big after-hours movers following a flurry of earnings, plus BlackRock's chief investment and portfolio strategists on where to invest right now, following the market's big bounceback. Stay with us.

Welcome back to closing bell overtime live from the NASDAQ market site. Another record day for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, both up more than 1% and closing at all-time highs. Attention now turning to this afternoon's earnings reports. Tesla shares higher as earnings beat, though revenue missed slightly. Service now getting hit hard despite beating on earnings and revenue, though only very slightly. Lulu Lemon also lower as it names a new CEO. Other names are watching, including CSX, the company beating on earnings but coming up short of expectations on revenue.

Still, the stock up more than 6%. There's a company saying revenue increases, including from a fuel search, were offset by a drop in coal exports. Southwest Airlines missing on earnings and revenue, the company saying because of macroeconomic uncertainty, it would not be productive at this time to update its guidance. Adding that meeting its existing forecasts would require lower fuel prices or higher revenue to offset those higher costs, Southwest, off by 5%. Investors are battling a flurry of crosswands as geopolitics continue to dominate the headlines.

Earnings kick into full gear and a major transition. is set to happen at the Fed into all of that. BlackRock is releasing its playbook of best ideas. Joining us now here on set is Gargi Chow Adre. She is BlackRock Chief Investment in Portfolio Strati for the Americas. Her team put out at 2026 spring playbook just this week. Gargi, great to have you with us. I don't know if you had like a draft and then the war broke out and you had to sort of rip it up. I mean, what has changed in terms of your outlook specifically for how we should invest in the second half of the year because of the war? Sure. And it's wonderful to be here. Long time listener. First time, join up. Thank you for having me.

So to your point, obviously, we were doing a lot of the drafting as the headline volatility was very high. And the way we thought about it as a team was, what are some of the takeaways that investors will remember even when the headline volatility comes down? And that's why we focused on the durable growers. That's theme number one, AI, energy security, finding diversification. That's been such a challenge in March. Where do you find that? And then lastly, income to build some resilience. Now, the AI and energy themes, energy infrastructure themes that you believe are durable, there's the durability of the theme and there's how much the market has already capitalized the theme, right?

So how do you play around with that as those stocks become ever more kind of highly valued and crowded? Absolutely. It's such a great point and a recognition that, yes, especially since the lows that we hit earlier in March, we've obviously seen a massive rebound. And here we are coming out when we're hitting all-time highs and still totally. talking about pockets of opportunities. And I think what we have to recognize is that this is underpinned by earnings growth. And we are specifically telling investors where to go within the market. So we're saying specifically find that value chain of AI with the ticker BAI, which is an actively managed ETF ticker that really looks at those opportunities that are throughout,

not just the one or two larger software names, for example, but through the memory compute semiconductor value chain, if you will. And I think that helps. Having said that, recognizing that we have moved quite a bit, I think diversification remains key. So it's not just about equities and equities alone. It's actually getting different types of diversification, perhaps even in a market neutral way, where you're not taking a lot of that beta move going up and up with the market, but finding relative value cross-sectional opportunities with tickers like IA or LT, which gives you exactly that.

How are you thinking about the energy shock and the impact on companies and the impact on earnings, especially as the conflict, continues? And there is still the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And we're already hearing from the likes of IBM and service now flagging their impact from either the Middle East specifically and the business done on the ground there or the energy shock when it comes to Europe. Absolutely. And this is something we address right on, just this idea that, look, growth has obviously been revised lower. The good news was that the starting point was higher than it has. has been in some quarters. So we were at in that sort of mid-to range and now maybe revised lower to Q4 over Q4 looking something like about 2%. The U.S. is still in a relatively more insulated

space, but we absolutely have to recognize that on top of some of the shocks to inflation that were already underway, we were not at the Fed's target. We now have another headline shock. And what might that mean for consumers? Frankly, we looked at retail sales last week. We haven't seen that bear out. We've seen it in the inflation data a little bit. We're not necessarily seeing that to such a massive extent on, again, the durable growers, and of course some of them are going to report next week, but not. That's why being very specific around the durable growers theme and focusing on energy security, on energy grid, power, supply chains, that remains really important. And then lastly, I would also point to the fact that inflation protection

is important. And finding ways to do. that in a multi-asset portfolio, maybe adding some tips, some broad commodities, it makes a lot of sense here. The idea that there is a search for proper diversifiers implies that kind of plain vanilla, fixed income is not going to do the job on a forward-going basis? You know, so I think we've learned that in 2022, and then maybe we forgot about that a little bit, and then when we looked at March and you looked at that traditional 60-40, look, it's done its job for many, many quarters, but when you look at the last, call it six years since the pandemic, there were 27 months where the stock market, the S&P 500 was down, and traditional bonds, so something like

that gives you a lot of duration, only gave you that diversification about seven of those 27 months. That's not a great number when you are running that 60-40. So this is why we talk about broad commodities, which actually worked, call it 52% of the time. or things like liquid alternatives, and some of them, like our global equity market neutral strategy, worked close to 60% of the time, gold working 42% of the time. So you need to diversify those diversifiers.

Gargi, great to see you. Thanks for coming by. Hope to see you soon. Absolutely, thank you. Up next, Fast 20 is Tim Seymour and how he is trading the surging semi-stocks and Intel specifically, as the chipmaker gets out to report earnings after the bell tomorrow.

And take a look at shares of home improvement in building products maker Masco, one of the big winners in the S&P 500 today, the owner of Delta Fawcett and bare paint brands, beating Wall Street's estimates, and reaffirming its full year guidance because of an uptick in home remodeling interest. Closing bell overtime. Be right back. Welcome back to overtime. The Semiconductor Index keeps rallying, tying a record 15-day winning streak. It's set back in 2014.

And since that record was originally set, the index is up more than 1,500 percent. That is far up performing the S&PRA. P-500, which is nearly tripled since then. And take a look at the changing of the guard in the industry over the last 12 years. Invidia had a market cap of just $10 billion. Now it's at nearly $5 trillion. Broadcom was just $18 billion in 2014. Now it's almost $2 trillion.

Micron's market cap, $35 billion. Now it's just over half a billion. And Intel, the largest market cap of the four names at $150 billion. But now it is the smallest at just $332 billion. It's remarkable. I mean, obviously, it's got the momentum working for it. It has sort of the fundamental support, the earnings revisions. It's almost one of those things where you want to look for reasons to start to doubt it.

I think semis in general. Just the whole, and it's rolled from one kind of sub-themed to the next one. I mean, inviator cracks above 200. You know, it had been a ceiling for a while. And then take a look at Texan tonight. I mean, Texan was the automotive, industrial, you know, the end markets. It could never catch a bid or do well. And now it's doing well, and it's got a data center component.

Yes, and it's been sideways for a couple of years before breaking out in the last week or so. So how do you trade the semis after such a large run? Joining us now is Tim Seymour, a fast money trader and CIO at Seymour Asset Management. So you got the answer. You trade them cautiously. Look, I have someone that's believed that semis are continuing to outperform the market, and until they stop doing that, it's not only a great market sign, but semis, that leadership, that rotation you just referred to within the group is impressive.

the fact that laggards and their lower quality laggards. I mean, the most extraordinary thing about that chart to me, outside of really broadcom, the $18 billion to a trillion, is that Intel's actually doubled. I don't think Intel should be a $330 billion market cap here, and that's a 60% move in the last month. But AMD's had a 50% move in the last month as well. AMD, who, after they reported fourth quarter numbers,

promptly fell 17% because the guide wasn't so good. So, look, I love the space, and I think investors that are, in for the long haul should be here. The question is, as you said, it's all relative, and this has been one of the most extraordinary periods of outperformance for an index that's been outperforming. And that's something to take light in going into earnings. And again, I don't think Intel's going to wow us tomorrow. It's not. I mean, you though believe that all sort of like the tailwinds are there for an Intel store. I mean, all the sort of the tent poles of why it should be higher, just not maybe this high. I don't really know who the marginal buyer of Intel is. I understand who the

marginal buyer of Taiwan Semi is. And again, Taiwan Semi, who's going to be making white labeling some of the most important chips in the world for NVIDIA and Vera Rubin coming out in the fall. I mean, that I get. I get how AMD is stealing market share, that the data center, the MI300, is something that's been a big part of their growth story and that they've been holding gross margins. Intel to me, I think we're going to hear about supply chain dynamics. I think we're going to hear about production shortfalls that may be a function of really the broader environment, let not so much in Intel's own dynamics. But I worry about the balance sheet.

I don't know how they're going to grow without a real sugar daddy. And I think that's why the stock's going higher. The market thinks it has the greatest sugar daddy at all. Yeah, exactly. Right, the one with an unlimited checkbook. Interesting, though, there is this dynamic where the less exposure you have to the hottest parts of the AI food chain, the more upside you have if you get just a little sliver of it.

We saw it with AMD. And Intel is kind of playing in the same area. I think that's right. I do think that NVIDIA is still part of my semis barbell. And again, that's the value side of my barbell. And I do think there are some concerns about who might be eating their lunch. We all know that the hypers are chipping away and doing what they're doing in-house. But I feel a lot more comfortable with NVIDIA than chasing Intel here. Tim, I guess we'll see you. I hope so, unless I'm really, really early or really late. Stick around. Don't go too far. I think you should totally change your mind in the next 10 minutes. Give us the other side. We don't do that on fast money. Thanks, Mike.

Just to get the balance. All right, thanks, Tim. Investors, hitting the brakes on a stock that has gone parabolic over the last month. Up next, we'll go under the hood to look at whether the meme mania in this stock is running out of gas. And as we had to a break, take a look at some notable S&P 500 stocks hitting new highs today, including Cisco, Dell, New Corps, Steel Dynamics, and Diesel Engine Maker comments. at the highest level since going public in 1947. Closing by overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. We'll be right back.

Welcome back to overtime. Check out shares of Avis Budget. The stock's recent rally slammed into reverse today. That's putting a dent in the massive gains that investors have seen recently. Shares have now tripled over the last month, driven by a short squeeze, but the stock came into the day up five-fold over the same time span. Those gains helping fuel the mean stock ETF's gains as well.

Avis is now the top holding in the mean ETF. It's like more than 10% of course just because the actual value of the stock's gone up so much. It's also top holding the transports, which accounts for the huge run of the DAU transports. Exactly. Yes. Which is kind of funny. A price weighted index, which was skewed by Avis budget. And in fact, Dow transports were down like 8% today, even though, you know, things like airlines and such rolling down 2 to 3%.

I have to give a shout out to Carter Braxton, worth of worth charting. This morning he came out and said today is the day to sell. Alavis, and he came out just actually with a note just moments ago saying that they're given the volume that he's seen today in trading to the downside. Probably there will be follow through in the days and weeks to come. It's like the silver chart from a few months ago. It's very treacherous to try and pick the top and trade it. I was looking this morning when the stock was flat to buy an at-the-money put that expires in two days. You had to pay 100 bucks. So the stock had to go down 13% in two days and it went down way more than that in order for that to become profitable.

All right, let's get another check here on the after hours earnings. We had a lot of them. Many of the conference calls will begin shortly. Tesla, we should say, is higher. Focus on the call will be on progress and robotaxies. Texas Instruments higher after a big beat on earnings service. Now a big after hours decliner. It did beat on earnings and revenue.

The company did say, though, its subscription revenue growth saw a 75 basis point headwin from delayed deals in the Middle East due to the war specifically. So that'll be an interesting thing to watch in these multinational earnings. For sure. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Weakless jobless claims. The only item on the economic calendar, but it will be another big day of earnings. American Express, Honeywell, American Airlines, Lockheed, Martin, Pulteholm, just some of the names reporting before the bell.

And then we already mentioned earlier Intel, but we'll also get results from Boyd Gaming, Newmont and Baker Hughes after the Bell. Pretty wide variety, of course. And, you know, we've seen a continuation of that theme of, you know, companies beating. They always beat. 75% of all quarterly reports are a beat relative to forecast, but then being a little reserved in projecting ahead as to whether that level of profitability is going to continue for the rest of the year. We saw it in space yesterday in terms of beating in the first quarter, but not raising the fullier guidance. We saw this afternoon for IBM.

So we'll see if that continues to be a trend here. Cynically, you could say that just creates a lower hurdle for them to beat next time. And maybe it does, but it shows you a little bit of reserve because the macro situation is still unsettled. That does it for overtime. Fast money begins right after this quick break.