Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: The “Rodney Dangerfield” Of The Chips Sector; CrowdStrike Earnings 6/3/25

Episode Date: June 3, 2025

Paul Hickey, Co-Founder of Bespoke, breaks down the market action, as well as earnings from Asana and HPE. CrowdStrike earnings reaction with Joel Fishbein of Truist. Our Pippa Stevens on the latest in the warming relationship between nuclear and tech: this time, with Constellation and Meta. Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein on why Qualcomm is the “Rodney Dangerfield” of chip stocks—getting no respect despite strong fundamentals. Bullish technical signals with Warren Pies, Co-Founder of 3Fourteen Research, who sees a path to all-time highs this summer. Plus, Diana Olick on how more homeowners are cashing out home equity.

That bell marks the end of regulation. The company is on the Madrona IA 40 list, winning the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Xerox buyer Pharma doing the honors at the NASDAQ. The stock's ending the day higher after opening to the downside. The Dow closing near the highs of the day, up more than a couple hundred points.

Tech, the leader, NVIDIA a big winner, taking the crown once again as the world's most valuable company by market cap, edging Microsoft. Retail in the spotlight, Dollar General jumping after raising its full year outlook. Cignet also higher on the back of earnings with the CEO saying the consumer remains resilient. Oil higher again after coming off its best day in about a month. Energy, one of the top performers. And some names moving higher on the back of analyst upgrades.

Pinterest goes to overweight at JP Morgan. Block raised to outperform at Evercore. The target goes to $75. And Broadcom at an all-time high. As Citi gets more bullish ahead of earnings this week. Well, that's the scorecard on Wall Street, but winners stay late. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime.

I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Coming up on the show, we are getting some earnings reports in the next few minutes. CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Asana all reporting. And while Nvidia and other big chip names have soared over the past month, Qualcomm is up only 6%. Stacey Raskin will make the case for the stock which he calls the Rodney Danger field of the sector.

But first all major averages are finishing in the green the Dow ending higher for the fourth straight day. Our next guest says there have been some bullish trends forming in the market during the most recent volatile period and those trends could mean there's more upside ahead. So joining us now is Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickey. Paul, it's great to have you back on

and let's start right there. What are you seeing and why does it feel constructive? Well, so two things, you touched on it on the top, Nvidia, for the last year, Nvidia has made a habit of rallying and then on good news and then capping off that rally with an intraday sell-off and declining. It's done that multiple times

over its last few earnings reports. It looked like we were seeing that after last week's earnings report, but the stock, it was a one day reversal and then it stabilized and now I think today it closed higher than it did last week. So the fact that Nvidia hasn't really seen that selling into good news, I think is a positive sign for the stock and for the AI trade and the semis in general. The semis broke their downtrend that's been in place all year today.

And it wasn't just Nvidia driving that rally. When I last looked, the only stock in the stocks that was down was ASML and every other stock was up over 1% on the day. So it was broad based strength in the semis today. And that's a good leading indicator for the economy on the day. So it was broad based strength in the semis today. And that's a good leading indicator for the economy and the market. S&P, it looks like finishing 59.70 up about half a percent.

We still continue to be pretty range bound here. Is that to be expected given all of the volatility we've seen so far? And if so, what's the next catalyst? Yeah, well, so for the last couple of weeks, we've been sort of just treading water here- but you know that's typical when you see this. Big sharp rally like

we saw off the lows. And you get back to the close to those new highs. It's not uncommon to see a period of. Short term hesitation where the you know the market you know an investor is just. Reassess things. But historically what you've seen.

Is within the next couple of weeks in these but historically what you've seen is within the next couple of weeks in these prior periods when you've seen a similar type rebound the market was at new highs so it didn't usually take long for the market to take out that prior high which I think is encouraging and then within the date it's a tale of two markets that we're seeing here. What you've seen so far this year is at the open the SPY, which is the ETF for the S&P 500, has been gapping down about an average of over six basis points per day. Doesn't sound like much, but the only year that was worse since 1993 was 2008, and then 2022 was a year that was similarly as bad. Those were terrible years for the market.

That's the bad news. The good news is, as in those years, the market kept going down from the open to close. This year we're on pace for one of the strongest years where you see the market performance from the open to close. So while there's been selling at the open after some overnight negative news, there's been eager buyers stepping in

during the trading day to get those lower prices and get at exposure. We got CrowdStrike about to report any moment now and this is a big cybersecurity stock. A lot of the cyber names and the ETFs have been at or near record highs. It's expensive, but can you, should you buy it here? How are you treating these names

given the environment we're in? So right before it's about to report earnings, I probably wouldn't step into a stock. I'd never like to do that right ahead of earnings, but I mean, the momentum in these names, it's crazy expensive, but when you look at the fact that it's expected to grow earnings 30% per year out until 2030 and revenues by 25% out until 2030, I mean, the growth is there.

And so investors have been willing to pay up for that growth with these other software names. And CrowdStrike is just nuts as far as its performance this year. It's up, like you said, 40%. And that includes a period when it had a 33% peak to trough decline in the spring. So it's a very volatile name, but investors have been willing to pay up for these stocks that can show strong growth. It's been a time for a lot of volatile names lately when I look at what's been higher,

names like Robinhood, names like On Semi. I mean, how can you as an investor protect yourself from the volatility of the headlines in this environment? You know, what we tell investors all the time is even if you have a growth bias, I mean, you have to be diversified across different sectors. There's nothing wrong with having exposure to some of these high momentum names but don't have all your eggs in one basket you know coming into the year we were most you know positive on the industrial sector because of the you know on shoring of of U.S. manufacturing and lower regulation and we haven't quite seen

that lower regulation trade theme come into play yet as everyone's been focused on tariffs but the industrial sector is a lot less richly valued in a lot of areas so you can get exposure there and be more comfortable holding positions and not worrying about you know stock like CrowdStrike on a bad earnings report could be down 15% in a heartbeat. Well, actually, it's just down a little more than 5.5%. We'll get to that in a moment. Asana is higher, but Hewlett Packard Enterprise is out as well. That's ready now.

Christina Parts-Nevelis has the numbers. Christina? That's right. HPE is solid beat with adjusted EPS of 38 cents on revenues of 7.63 billion. It was driven primarily by server and hybrid cloud growth. We did see gross margins improve sequentially, but they're still down year-rear. I just actually spoke to CEO Antonio Neri, who said the margin pressure really stems from the AI product mix, though he is seeing improvement not only from AI servers, but

also traditional servers. He also says their enterprise business now accounts for about one third of new orders, noting, quote, the market is picking up. So there's that cyclical commentary. Also, he said he hasn't seen any demand disruption or demand pulling from tariff concerns. Looking ahead for the Q3 guide, we're seeing both EPS and revenue came in above street expectations, as did their full year EPS outlook, which is contributing to that 3% uptick.

Neary teased a major customer win, which should help reduce inventory this quarter, but he wouldn't name names just yet. And then lastly, Elliott management's $1.5 billion stake was fresh in my mind, given it happened recently. So I pressed Neary on the activist involvement. He said he welcomed constructive feedback, but emphasized that the fastest path to shareholder value remains the Juniper acquisition. Despite ongoing regulatory challenges,

HPE still believes that deal, $14 billion, favors them and should close by the end of the summer. Shares up, look at that, over 4% right now on the news. All right, Christina Parts-Nevelis with some great color on those earnings. We've also got CrowdStrike earnings out and Steve Kovac has those numbers

for us. Hi, Steve. I sure do, Morgan. And shares are down better than six percent here, almost seven percent now on these results. Let me give you what we got. EPS is 73 cents adjusted. Street wanted to see 65 cents. So there's a

beat there. Revenue was exactly in line. One point one billion dollars. It looks like the Q2 revenue guidance for the current quarter is a little light. That could be part of the dragon. Also, this stock has just been on a killer run over the last couple of months, so maybe it's just a little selling the news here. Also announcing a billion dollar buyback. We see shares now down better than 7%. I'll send it back to you, John. I'll take it. Steve Kovac, thank you. Paul Hickey, want to get your response.

Two different tech names, two different moves for those stocks right now here in overtime. Yes. I'm in CrowdStrike since they came public, have never missed earnings and revenue forecast. So just beating those expectations isn't going to be enough and the recurring revenue numbers,

I believe if I saw correctly on the, on the crawl down below were just slightly ahead of estimates so. When you see a stock like that is has. Gone bananas like it has so far this year. I you you really have to shoot lights out in order to stay up with expectations so.

It's not a you know. For seven percent move for a stock like crowd strike on earnings. Is really pretty much average if not below average. In terms of how the stock typically reacts. HPE I think there's a big sigh of relief last quarter was a messy

quarter for the set the company- the fact that they were sort of- raising estimates here suggests that they've worked out. Worked out some of those issues. And the stock coming into earnings was stuck right between its April highs and its April lows so- you know in a bit of no man's land so this could be something

to propel it back to those April levels which more in line with the rest of the tech sector. All right call is coming soon. Paul thank you. Paul Hickey. Thank you. Have a good one. You too. Now let's bring in senior markets commentator Mike Santoli for a temperature check on the market. Mike. Yeah, running hot in certain areas, John. As a matter of fact, there's a cluster of stocks I always monitor at any given moment that just seem like the ones

where all of the hot money is flocking to. And here you have three retail trader favorites. That would be Hims and Hers, Palantir and Robinhood, obviously in vastly different businesses, right? It's online prescriptions, it's AI driven software, and it's online brokerage. And Leaks how they've been over the last six months relative to the S&P 500, they basically had the exact same cadence of gains up huge all threatening the old highs. So it does show you there there's that kind of you know speculative or aggressive or very future focused

You know kind of channel of money running into these names I also mentioned last hour core weave up 25% today up by a third this week It's like 50 bucks above the highest price target among sell side out So look some parts of this market starting to run high how about the overall market in this rebound off the early April lows? How does it stack up against the typical rebound from a 20% decline? We did have a 20% plus decline on an intraday basis from February into April. So here's the current path. Actually, this is before today's rally. So consider maybe we have another half a percent on there. The historical average after a 20% drop and then the median since 1950 or so, this is

from Strategis, shows you were outperforming by a little bit, but not really out of line with in general how you might expect the market to digest one of those 20% drops. Now, some of these obviously are not rebounding as much. These are averages. But also, wouldn't be surprising to see things flatten out for a little while, you know, month two and three and beyond, after you have one of those rebounds. Sometimes it has to kind of gather itself a little bit before its next big move. Arguably, those first three stocks you showed are all in the enhancements

business of one sort or another. I guess investors might be prepared, given that chart that you're showing now for the market to be looking for excuses to I won't quite say correct, but cool off. You shouldn't be surprised if it happens. You have to kind of hold two things in mind at once, which is we had a very, very persuasive low back in early April, a lot of the attributes of the rally on the way up, it crossed all these hurdles.

So the low is in, but the way up it crossed all these hurdles so the low is it but the lows way down from here remember is like forty eight thirty five. At the lows in April we're pushing six thousand right now so nobody expects us to roll over to that degree but yes to chop lower maybe you want to expect that

doesn't have to happen- so it's I think the bulls won the benefit of the doubt back on the overall trend. But that doesn't say a lot about the next several weeks. All right, Mike, see you again in just a little bit. Yeah.

Now we mentioned Asana earnings are out, Steve Kovach ready with those numbers now, Steve. Yeah, John, it shares up about 4%, last I looked a few seconds ago, yeah, about 4.5% on these results. EPS was a beat, 5 cents adjusted, Street was looking for 2 cents, revenue a very slight beat here, 187 million,

Street was looking for 185 and a half million and then as far as other things they're talking about their largest subscription agreement in history a hundred million dollar renewal over the course of three years that could be what setting some optimism and shares a little bit higher but we're not seeing much in the guidance here they're pretty much in line with expectations on that front shares up by just about four and a half percent I'll send it back to you guys the bank has been freed from a federal reserve asset cap that had limited its growth for over seven years. The fed confirmed Wells Fargo

met all conditions set in 2018 enforcement action after reviewing its governance and risk management. You can see those shares are jumping almost 3% here in overtime and perhaps it speaks to what we call the

potential for a new financial crisis. The federal reserve has been enforcement action after reviewing its governance and risk management. You can see those shares are jumping almost three percent here in overtime and perhaps it speaks to what Paul Hickey was talking about which is the deregulatory environment or maybe an easing of some of these regulations but we'll have to dig deeper into this report. Let's turn now to Washington. Elon Musk calling the budget bill working its way through congress a, quote, disgusting abomination. Eamon Javers is at the White House and he has more. Hi, Eamon.

Morgan, that's tough stuff and no direct response from President Trump yet. We're in the middle of an unusual stretch here, about 48 straight hours where we have not seen President Trump on camera. That's unusual for this term of his presidency. We've been watching his social media too. No indication that he has a direct response to Elon Musk. We take a look at what Elon tweeted just a short time ago. This happened during the White House press briefing.

He put out, I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it. You know you did wrong. You know it. Elon Musk really taking to task the White House's preferred bill here. He says it will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to 2.5 trillion dollars and burden American citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt. Caroline Levitt, the White House press secretary, was briefing reporters at that time.

Oh, and this is, I want to bring this to you as well. This is a tweet that Elon Musk put out just a short time ago, maybe about 40 minutes ago. He says, in November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people. Now this tweet, or ex-post that Elon put up, is in response to a user who had posted that complaints about the Republican Party that the Republicans were spending millions in Ukraine not voting in the Doge cuts spending too much of their time on vacation that kind of thing that Musk responding to that user and saying you know Effectively will vote the bums out in the midterms. That is going to be alarming to Republicans on Capitol Hill who are watching Elon Musk's stock prices and total personal wealth increase day by day

and saying this guy is going to be a power in our party for years to come. Do we want to cross him here on this spending bill? And that presents a political problem for this White House to deal with. Elon Musk sort of dropping a bomb into the middle of their negotiations in the final stages of this spending bill. Here's how Caroline Levitt responded to it in real time as she was asked just a few moments

after Musk had put out the tweet. Look, the president already knows where Elon Musk stood on this bill. It doesn't change the president's opinion. This is one big beautiful bill and he's sticking to it. So the president's sticking to it there, the White House says, and we'll see whether this means he has the votes or not to stick to it. The question now is, does this embolden anybody who was on the fence up on Capitol Hill saying, you know, I don't love the spending here, I might want to not support this, we'll see what the impact is.

All right. Eamon, thank you. You bet. Well, cybersecurity stocks continuing to run. There's three big ETFs in that space, all higher for the third straight session and all near 52 week highs. But we just got results from CrowdStrike. That stock is falling here in overtime,

down about 6.5% now. We're gonna get an analyst's take on that move and what's triggering it overtime is back into welcome back to overtime earnings just out from Hewlett Packard Enterprise beating on earnings and revenue the company lowered the top end of its sales outlook due to uncertainty in AI spending, but raised the bottom of the range on a tariff exemption, saying many of its products are USMCA compliant. Now Asana has now turned lower as well following its results, beating on earnings and seeing

earnings for next quarter higher than estimates. Those shares are now down about two and a half percent. Also revenue guidance for the quarter and the year were largely in line with consensus. CrowdStrike, also reporting moments ago. Right now, the stock is lower by almost seven percent. The stocks hit all-time highs earlier today. Two large cyber ETFs closing at record highs yesterday. And joining us now is Joel Fishbunch, who is a software analyst. He has a buy rating on the stock. Joel, welcome. So what's important here?

That they're pretty much hitting the expected targets, but the valuation is such that maybe they have to do a bit better than that? Yeah, so it was obviously priced for a great quarter, and this was a good quarter. And that's what's affecting the stock today, and we're not surprised by the pullback. It's up, you know, as you talked about in your earlier segment, up 40% year to date. And this is

a little bit of a breather right here. And I think it'll be an opportunity for, you know, investors to, you know, have a, you know, get a get a bite at the apple that haven't already been there. We think this is probably the best positioned company in all of cybersecurity. And we think their revenue will double over the next five years. So we're not worried about this quarter. As you probably remember, we're running up against the July outage, which created some tougher comps. And we're highly confident and we expect them to talk about this on the call that they're going to accelerate their growth in the back half of the year. We've also got rubric coming up, you up, cyber resilience being another area in cybersecurity.

Why is CrowdStrike the best position? How much of it has to do with that platform approach and how that performs in uncertain times? Well, there's three things to that. Number one, right, the platform approach. They have 30 different products that feed into that platform, all on a single user base. And that's point number one.

Point number two is this cybersecurity has now become about data. Trillions of signals are collected every single day, and that threat intelligence is really what's important to really keep the bad actors out. And the third piece is they're really leveraging AI. They've got a tool called Charlotte AI, and they're using AI to be able to figure out where the adversaries are before and what they're going to do before they actually do it. So those are the things that really separate them from the pack. In terms of Rubrik, cyber resilience is a really important thing. As you know, many companies get hacked and people use that hacking as ransom, you know, that data is ransom.

And what Rubrik is able to do is to really bring you back up within sometimes minutes, if not hours, when you're hacked and keeping your data integrity. So in the event that you are hacked, which many companies are, Rubrik is your safety net there. And this is one of the companies that's also underappreciated in the space as well. Joel, whether it's CrowdStrike or others in the cyber industry, how would you assess the government opportunity here? On the one hand, a lot of

spending by the government across its many agencies into cybersecurity efforts. On the other, you are seeing some consolidation and I realize this is up for debate now, but you've seen the risk of downsizing via Doge. Great question. There's no question that under Doge and under some of the cuts that seat-based companies are gonna really be impacted by this because there's gonna be less government workers, right?

And less seats there on one hand. On the positive side of this is a lot of the technology is antiquated. I mean, you've seen the videos of what's happening at the FAA and they're using 1980s technology. That's true about some of the cybersecurity stuff that they have as well, and they haven't modernized in that area. And, you know, we attended a company called Zscaler. We're attending their analyst date today

and they're talking about how they're going into the government and actually saving tons of money by consolidating some of that legacy technology and modernizing it. So I think there's gonna be some winners and losers. Obviously seeing some of the system integrators really taking a hit. And some of these legacy cybersecurity guys

are gonna take a hit as well, but there's also gonna be some spending as well. And like you said, what we try to do is we try to de-risk our numbers in March with government exposure, but we still don't know how it's all gonna play out. Okay, Joel Fishbine, thanks for joining us. Thank you.

Well, shares of CrowdStrike down 6% right now. Well, shares of Boeing, on the other hand, what's a laggard? They're leading the Dow higher this year, bringing the whole aerospace sector with it. We're going to check on that group coming up. And shares of Constellation Energy jumping this morning as the company signed a deal with Metta, but now they're lower. We'll explain why coming up. We've got breaking news on steel tariffs. Eamon Jabber is back with that story from the White House. Eamon.

Hey John, the President threatened to increase steel tariffs on social media. Now the White House says he has done it. They say he has now signed an executive order off camera here at the White House that raises steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% effective at 1201 a.m. tomorrow. Now our Megan Casella has been going through the text here, points out that the U.K. gets some differential treatment in this executive order based on the agreement with the U.K. But this is, as the president expressed, he was going to do on social media. Now the White House says he has officially done it.

So as expected, but obviously this was a post on social media. Now the White House says he has officially done it. So as expected, but obviously this was a post on social media that moved markets at the time. John. I'll take it. Eamon Javers, thank you. Well, a sector that uses a lot of aluminum and steel. Aerospace and defense stocks higher again today. It's the seventh straight day of gains for the iShares ETF,

tracking the sector, the ITA, sending the fund to an all-time high. The ITA is up 23% this year compared to a gain of only 1% for the SShares ETF tracking the sector, the ITA, sending the fund to an all-time high. The ITA is up 23% this year compared to a gain of only 1% for the S&P 500. It's names like Boeing, GE Aerospace, and actually Kratos Defense that are some of the individual names contributing the most to those gains.

Meanwhile, Constellation Energy signing a nuclear power deal with Metta. Stockville gave up its gains, closed negative. Pippa Stevens, why? Well, let's start here with the deal itself because it is Metta's first nuclear deal. So the company said they will buy all of the power generated from Constellations nuclear reactor

at the Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois as part of a 20 year agreement. Now the plant had been in danger of closing, but this deal gives Constellation the certainty and the money to invest in the plant. This is just the latest instance of big tech teaming up with nuclear. Driving these deals is AI's insatiable need for power. Alphabet and Amazon are backing small modular reactors, while Microsoft signed an agreement

last year to restart Three Mile Island. Now it was a wild day of trading for shares of Constellation, which closed fractionally lower after at one point rallying 15 percent. So a couple of things here the terms of the power purchase agreement were not disclosed and as one person told me it could have been lower than last year's Microsoft and Three Mile Island deal. Additionally the stock is up 26 percent since earnings at the beginning of May when the company said it had material non-public information. So it might have been priced in to a certain extent. And of course, if you're a long-term holder, at some point the stock just gets a little

bit overstretched. Nuclear fuel. We don't have enough of it. It doesn't get a lot of attention. There are some startups trying to crack the code on this. Eventually the U.S. runs out of it. Despite all of the buzz around this, what needs to happen to change that? So one thing is in the executive orders, one of them specifically

targeted boosting domestic production of nuclear fuel. And the issue was that for such a long time, there just wasn't that much demand. Demand was pretty steady. We could get it from our allies. We also got a lot from, of course, places like Russia on the enrichment side. A lot of it. Yes. And so while we used to be a leader in the mining and the enriching and all steps conversion, there's milling, there's a lot of steps here for the fuel, all of that ended up then going abroad. So it is starting to come back.

We're seeing companies like Centris, they work on HALU, and so that's going to be fuel that's between 5% to 20% enriched. That will be for things like small modular reactors. Our current fleet uses about 3% to 5%, so they're not there yet on HALU. But that is the next step in the supply chain that is starting to come back here. But it's one of the issues is that there is so much focus on the downside. We also need to invest in all steps of the supply chain. I love that I can throw a question like that at you and you've got all the answers in the

stats ready to go. It's all about HALU. Well, time now for a CNBC News Update with Ber you've got all the answers and the stats ready to go. It's all about Haley. Well, time now for a CNBC News Update with Bertha Coombs. Bertha. Hey, John. The FBI in Detroit says they arrested two Chinese nationals after one of them allegedly smuggled in a biological pathogen into the U.S.

That's according to charging documents unsealed today. The FBI alleges the pathogen is a potential agro-terrorism weapon that can cause large-scale crop losses and significant illness to people and livestock. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced on X this afternoon that the family of suspected Bolger attacker Mohammed Soleiman has been taken into ICE custody. Noam says her department is investigating what the family knew about the firebombing attack that injured 12 people.

Soliman is charged with attempted murder and a federal hate crime. And the New York Mix today fired coach Tom Thibodeau, who led the team this season to its first Eastern Conference final in more than 20 years, but lost to the Indiana Pacers in six. In a statement, team president Leon Rose

thanked Thibodeau for his five seasons and wrote that the organization is singularly focused on winning a championship for fans. No word yet on a new coach, but an awful lot of discussion on social media on both sides. Very controversial, this dance. Yeah. I have a way to say thanks.

Yeah. Bertha, thanks. Well, Chip Stoxx had a big comeback off the April lows, but Qualcomm hasn't really kept up. Well, coming up, we're going to talk to Bernstein's Stacey Rask April lows, but Qualcomm hasn't really kept up. Well, coming up, we're gonna talk to Bernstein's Stacey Raskan, who calls Qualcomm the Rodney Dangerfield of stocks, because it, quote, don't get no respect.

That's next on Overtime. ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"]

["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] ["Overtime"] Welcome back to overtime. Let's get a quick check on the market. Stocks closing higher once again, a brief dip midday coinciding with Elon Musk's tweets about the budget bill. But stocks did bounce right back.

Chip stocks once again higher, Nvidia passing Microsoft and Market Cap getting near three and a half trillion dollars. On Semi, Microchip, Super Micro also with big gains. Robinhood closing at an all-time high after closing its acquisition of Bitstamp for $200 million on semi microchip super micro also with big gains and Robinhood closing at an all-time high after closing its acquisition of bitstamp for $200 million oil closing higher for the second straight day. Keep an eye on those wildfires in Alberta, Canada as well. That's taking production offline there. Gold slightly lower, but still need $3,400 an ounce. And the 10-year yield is at 4.46.

So that continues to slip. Yeah, but back to the chips. Qualcomm outperforming today after Bernstein put out a note calling it the Rodney Dangerfield of semiconductor stocks. It gets no respect. Despite stabilizing smartphone sales, more diversified revenue streams,

and an already priced in Apple headwind, Qualcomm has underperformed both the SMH and the Sox this year and in the past month, and joining us now is Stacey Raskin. He's Bernstein Senior Research Analyst and the man behind the Qualcomm call. Rodney Dangerfield, very 80s, very Gen X, I'm here for it. What is it about Qualcomm that you think eventually

outruns what's probably investor concern, that smartphone growth, particularly in the premium tier, might be behind us. Yeah, I actually don't think that's true. And in fact, in a smartphone market that's been in decline for quite a while, premium phones have actually grown. I think over the last five years,

the premium tier's grown at a double digit kegger, even in a market that has been overall in decline, which plays sort of right into Qualcomm's strengths. Like that really is where they focus in handsets and smartphones. And actually, I'm pretty positive on the continued prospect, at least for content growth,

if not necessarily for unit growth in smartphones. I personally think they can probably grow their Android business high single to even low double digits in a flat unit market on the back of new iPhones and everything else that are continuing to drive content. Yeah. I think there's a lot of other stuff to like here as well though. Look, I think the smartphone market which has been in decline does look like it's bottomed. Again, those mixed trends

are I think are good. There is an Apple overhang. Everybody knows Apple's leaving their designing up, but it's 100% known. It's extremely well telegraphed. It's in the numbers now. We're getting increasing in the numbers. It's certainly in the valuation. And frankly, it's actually not that big relative to the broader earnings power. I think for folks that don't like smartphones, I think the diversification story, auto and

IOT and everything else is very real. I think there's option value on PCs, even data center now frankly. And the stock is actually really cheap. Even if I take out the Apple, you know, roll off, it's under 14 times earnings. I either go an EPS double digits x Apple. I understand that there people argue there's no catalyst, you know, the earnings just kind of does like that for the next couple of years as Apple rolls off. Like I get all of that.

But I think it's a good time at least to sharpen your pencils on it, especially in a market where lots of other things have run and lots of other things are expensive. I think it's something that at least deserves a lot. So which factor is more significant here for Qualcomm investors? Is it Qualcomm share gains with the likes of Samsung at the high end and that sort of bigger build in with 5G phones? Or is it the auto business as auto transformation takes hold? Yeah, I think for people who are looking for that longer term diversification story,

the auto story is very important. Auto's a real business now. It's running close to a billion dollars a quarter. It's doubled over the last couple of years and they think it's gonna double again basically over the next few years. I think the smartphone story, people do think about sharing. Again, I do think that that Apple overhang, for better or for worse, continues to weigh

on it. And not that people don't know. If people just look at it and they say, well, I don't see any catalyst until it's gone. I personally wish Apple was a zero tomorrow. At least we can stop talking about it. I think 27 and beyond actually starts to look really, really good. By then Apple will be pretty small.

You can actually see the nice things that are going underneath. That sounds like a long time away, but it's really not, it's 18 months. Especially if you've got a horizon one year out, this is probably the time to at least start sharpening pencils on it, I think. I mean, the semi-train more broadly

seems to be doing pretty well right now, Stacey, and we got some positive or upbeat commentary from everyone from TSMC today to AMD on Semi, also trading higher when they put some updated forecasts out as well. What is your takeaway more broadly on the group, and how does it speak to the economic backdrop or maybe performance despite the economic backdrop? Yeah, you bet. So the sector got completely whacked like around liberation day, right?

And it's had a really strong run after that. And I think it's a few things. One is certainly you do have the postponement of the tariffs and we'll see what happens there. We're all waiting for like the 232 investigation to complete and so we'll see what awaits on tariffs. But in the meantime, we had some reprieve from that. I think in some of the more cyclical markets like industrial, you know, there's been talk of bottoming and even beginning of cyclical recovery. And there's

a controversy right now, like, is that real or is it like pull forward in front of tariffs? I don't think we know. But for now, like some of those numbers are getting better. And I think very importantly, the AI trade seems to be back on like in spadesades And that's actually like carrying a lot of the space along with it as well So I mean you combine all those things together Maybe it's not so surprising that the sectors have been pretty strong over the last last bit of time. All right, Stacy Raskin Thanks for joining us. Yeah, you bet up next Mike Santoli. He's back He's breaking down the mixed job openings and labor turnover survey jolts and what it could signal about Friday's key employment report.

Plus, raging bull, we'll hear from one market expert on why he says stocks are poised to go the distance this summer. Be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Let's turn to job openings. April saw an increase of more than 7 million as hiring and firing also rose. But let's bring back Mike Santoli for his take. And of course, he's got a hot take. Hi, Mike.

Yeah, Morgan, this one, I tell you, maybe it's more lukewarm because it's been somewhat steady from recent months, but this is the number of job openings at the latest count relative to the number of unemployed people at last report. So you see it's trended lower, and it's just above one. It's just above one job opening per unemployed person. Obviously, there's never going to be a perfect match there, but it is interesting that we've settled in this area. It's below where we were, as you can see, in 2018 and 2019,

when we had those relatively strong job markets. Here is where there were just labor shortage, so many job openings post-pandemic, and it was one of the things that Fed Chair Jay Powell was pointing to, to say there's just inflationary force behind this demand for labor. Well, now that's not really the case. But what's interesting about the labor market right now

is the absolute level of hiring, of layoffs, and quits are all very low and moderate at this point. So it's just sort of not a very high turnover, high metabolism labor market. We'll see what we get on Friday with the monthly payrolls report to see if it tilts one way or the other here, guys. Yeah, rough for new grads for sure. Mike, thanks. Yes, so far. Well, bull's on parade. Friday with the monthly payrolls report to see if it tilts one way or the other here guys.

Yeah, rough for new grads for sure. Mike, thanks. So far. Well, bulls on parade up next, why the technicals could be pointing to a red hot summer for stocks. Plus homeowners are finally tapping a record amount of home equity. Find out why they're doing it now and what it could say about the economy coming up on overtime. MUSIC

Well the major averages closing higher across the board today. The S&P 500 is on track for its best quarter since the first quarter of last year. The Dow also closing above its 200-day moving average. But is the S&P poised to continue the rally and head back to all-time highs? Well our next guest says yes. Joining us now is Warren Pies from 314 Research. And Warren, lay this out for me. What brings us to fresh highs?

Yeah, thanks for having me. Wendy, what we've been telling our clients really since the tariff drama started, Liberation Day, is that, look, there's too much policy risk and event risk lurking out there for investors. And so the best way to navigate that kind of environment is through technicals. Basically, what's price action telling us and the idea being that there's wisdom in the collective

price action in the market. And so that's what we've been watching. And as we've come through May, that we've been watching and as we've come through May, really early May, we had just a slew of technical signals fire, which point to new all time highs on the S&P 500 this summer. So why don't you like small caps? Well, why don't I like small caps? I think that small caps, I have a basic rule for small caps

is you don't wanna own low quality companies when you're late cycle. And this is a late cycle environment still. I think the economy is, it's growing, but that growth is decelerating. The only time you really want to own small caps is like at the early part of a cycle, coming out of a recession, fed stimulating,

and you want high beta low quality and we're not in that environment right now. And it's been the trade now for years. I just want to go back to some of these bullish technical evidence that you've laid out with your charts. Really contrarian evidence based on what we've seen in the market with around things like sentiment that could propel stocks higher. We've talked a lot about it here on overtime, but the fact that the retail investor has

been participating and participating heavily in this market, but institutional money, not so much. Yeah. So I think in technicals, you want to look at two, two broad categories, sentiment and positioning. And then alongside that trend or breadth work that we do. And like you said, retail has been kind of buying the dip, which I think threw a lot of people off. And we look at our institutional positioning, and you can see that institutions are still backing away from the market and under invested. And I think this V-shaped recovery caught them by surprise. So we see strategists lowering their targets, which I see a chart on the screen there.

So this is historically, we quantified this historically, this is a very bullish sign going forward. CTAs, which is a big institutional trend following group, we look at DBMF, which is a big ETF, but that ETF tracks the CTA strategies. They're all short the market still right now. And then you look at like the AD line, which is another thing we passed on to your team. The AD line made new all-time highs in front of the market. And that's a very bullish development. We have other things as well. It's just, you could go down

the list. So the technicals, the quantitative technicals with evidence behind them point to new highs and I think it's also you can't leave out the fact that we made a new high post-liberation day today on close which is, I mean, that's what you want to see if you're a bull. Same time you got these 90-day tariff windows closing during the summer. Based on how the market has responded to tariff news up to this point, how much of a monkey wrench might that throw in your theory here? Look, I mean, it's a big risk. Just like no one saw Liberation Day coming, but what we've said from the get-go is that

if we zoom out, this could be a volatility-inducing event, but we think that the market is going to lead us in the right direction, that but we think that the market is going to lead us in the right direction, that the collective wisdom of the market is gonna see through this stuff. And I think that's what people started seeing early on is like, if Trump pushed forward with the tariff policy that he unveiled on April 2nd,

we would have a massive negative feedback. We would hit the White House, the Republicans would be swept out of office. It would be disastrous. And I mean, I think Trump, if anything, he's shown a tendency to have self-preservation. And so I think it's consensus, but I think it's the right position to assume that these things are going to get resolved. And ultimately, any good bull market needs a wall of worry.

So we need to set up a bunch of things to be concerned about and then knock them down. And quite honestly, I'd rather be worried about these types of things that are in the control of somebody who really doesn't want the market to crash than something I can't really predict or weigh out the probabilities of. Okay, Warren Pies, great to get your take. Thanks for joining us.

Thanks for having me. 11 and a half trillion, that's with a T, dollars. That's the record amount of home equity Americans are sitting on and they are now finally starting to cash out, that's next. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the Closing Bell Overtime podcast on your favorite podcast app.

We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Home prices have been sky high for a long time and homeowners are now finally starting to tap

into a record amount of home equity. Diana Olek has the details. Hi, Di. Hey Morgan, yeah, the steep run up in home prices over the last five years means roughly 48 million homeowners are sitting on a record amount of collective cash. $17.6 trillion to be exact according to new data from ICE mortgage technology. That's the full amount of home equity. But they can top about $11.5 trillion of that while still

leaving enough to make lenders happy. Now the average individual homeowner can pull out about $212,000 each. In recent years, homeowners have been reluctant to take equity out, still remembering the Great Housing Crash well over a decade ago, but that's now changing. In the first quarter of this year, all home equity withdrawals, including home equity lines of credit and cash-out refis, totaled $45 billion. That's the highest Q1 volume in three years.

Now, if we're just looking at those second lean home equity lines, the HELOCs, they made up $25 billion of withdrawals, the largest volume in 17 years. Demand has increased mostly because interest rates on HELOCs have fallen to the lowest level in three years and could dip even lower by next year. Also, people are staying in their homes longer, which means more repairs, which is one of the top uses of that home equity. Back to you guys. All right. Well, Diana, thanks. Now, tomorrow, the consumers back in focus when RV maker Thor Industries and Dollar Tree report earnings before the bell. On overtime, we'll break

down results from PVH, Five Below, and MongoDB. On the economic front, we'll get hard and soft data, as Billie Eilish might say, the Fed's beige book, as well as the May ISM Services and ADP jobs report. And speaking of jobs, according to new data from Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index, companies that employ fewer than 10 people shed 1,900 jobs last month with decreases in half of the eight regions.

Monthly revenue growth fell in five of those regions. And Morgan, tomorrow here on overtime, I'm particularly interested in MongoDB, its Atlas database product has been a big grower for them, but the stock has hit turbulence recently. And the fact that we get the beige book and all of the details that come across the different regions of the country through that,

I think is going to speak to what we just touched on with Intuit and small businesses and medium businesses as well in this turbulent environment. But it was another positive day for stocks and constructive notes from a number of Wall Street analysts today regarding this rally having legs. That does it for us here at Overtime. Fast Money starts now.