Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Three-Year Anniversary of AI Bull Market: What’s Next? Plus, New MongoDB CEO 12/1/25

Episode Date: December 1, 2025

Stocks, crypto fall to start December as the risk-off trade continues. HSBC’s Max Kettner breaks down the market action. T. Rowe Price’s Tony Wang talks top tech stocks on the three-year anniversary of the AI bull market. Black Friday winners and losers with Goldman Sachs’ Kate McShane. New MongoDB CEO CJ Desai on the company’s latest quarter.   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

But that bell marks the end of regulation. C-IBC Miracle Day, ringing the closing bell to New York Stock Exchange. BlackBawed doing the honors at the NASDAQ. Stocks couldn't seem to continue last week's rally. All the major averages lower, all snapping five-session win streaks with today's losses. The Dow down about 400 points, S&P 500 and NASDAQ lower by about half a percent. Energy, the best performing sector there, getting help from rising oil prices. It's the only sector with a gain.

Health care lower after a strong November. The worst performing sector today? Utilities. Only one name in the group was higher and it wasn't a power utility. It's a water company. As I mentioned, crude oil rising on concerns about supply fears. Several international incidents contributing to the anxiety. More on that coming up. Gold and silver also higher today. Silver hitting an all-time high. It has doubled this year. And cryptocurrency once again getting crushed. Related stocks also getting hit. Bitcoin falling past its recent lows back to the worst level since April. Why didn't last week's rebound hold? That's.

coming up. Certainly is. That's a scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Ahead. It has been three years since the start of the AI boom, which ignited a massive rally across multiple areas of tech. Can AI continue to fuel that move? We're going to discuss that. Plus, WongoDB set to report earnings. The stocks of 43% this year, and traders are betting on a move of more than 10% on these numbers. You're going to hear from the CEO here before the analyst call. And who are the winners and losers this holiday shopping weekend. Goldman Sachs took to the malls to get some answers and they will join us with their picks and all that information a little bit later.

But let's start with today's market movie. Well, it could be a movie. Market Move, Christina Parts of Nevelace, is at the NASDAQ story. Christina. Or just narrated by me. I know there's a bunch of red behind me, but I have to say the NASDAQ did rebound from most of its earlier losses today, closing four-tenths of a percent lower. And that round, and that round, I guess you, or a turnaround rebound, really thanks to a rally in semiconductor stocks. Missouho also noting that tech trading volume today is down roughly 20 to 30% as the holiday weekend spills into Monday, so that could be adding to some of that gyration today. Invidia, AMD, both bounced back after a rough couple of days because he shares closing

at least 1% higher for both those names, though we did see some profit taking and custom chipmakers like Broadcom. You can see down about 4%. On the AI front, another day, another open AI partnership. This time, it's with Accenture. The consulting firm will use Open AIs tools to help their enterprise clients integrate agentic AI systems into their core business, and that's why you're seeing Accenture close about 3% higher. And in honor of Cyber Monday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year, we're continuing

to see resilience in consumer spending. Nike, the second biggest percentage gainer in the Dow today, while Decker's Outdoor is one of the best performing stocks in the S&P, or was one of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 today. but Shopify, a name that didn't do so well, closing almost 6% lower after its platform suffered several service outages, meaning some merchants using the service to sell goods online had issues with checkouts on one of the busiest days of the years. Guys? All right. Christina Parts and Ivelas, thank you. Now to the bond market where Yield saw

a bump higher. It's really a global phenomenon. Rick Santelli is in Chicago with more for us. Hi, Rick. Hi, indeed. If we look at rates globally, they are higher. and many are pointing towards Japan. But there's also other issues going on pushing rates up. A big corporate issuance calendar for the end of the year. And when that occurs, hedging occurs, meaning you're going to buy corporate securities. You sell some of the futures markets and some of the cash markets to hedge what you're going to buy. That's what's pushing yields up as well.

Let's look at a week of 10 year and consider on the left side are two days, number 7 and number eight that closed under 4%. Let's open the chart up. And you see on the left there in October from mid-October, for the rest of the month of October, where our other six closes below 4% for a total of 8. Why do I bring it up? Because when you look at a year today calendar, you can see on the right side, we keep bumping against 4%. We close under it now and again, but we don't stay under it. And we're now less than 50 basis points lower on the year. We closed last year at yield of 4.57. Now, let's look at the yen. Everybody's talking about the yen and their interest rates in Japan. Here's a two-day dollar yen, two-day euro yen. And even though

the yen's a little higher because the dollar and the euro a little lower, we're only talking a smidge there. And that was because the Bank of Japan hinting they may raise interest rates. Now, if we look at the big chart going back to 1992, that's the dollar yen and the euro yen. at levels we haven't seen since 92, 33 years. The dollar yen kind of peaked in July. But if you look at that July peak on the right side, that high goes all the way back to 1986. So even though the yen isn't at the extremes, historically it is. John, back to you. All right, Rick Santelli, thank you. And now a sharp sell-off in the crypto markets today with Bitcoin hitting the lowest level since April, as we mentioned. Let's get to

McKenzie Sagalows for a look at why. Mac. Hey, John. So this is more of a structural reset, that institutional floor that had been propping up Bitcoin just isn't giving the same support anymore. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have finally flipped back to net positive, but they're pretty tepid. Three straight sessions of only modest inflows. And then those all-important digital asset treasury companies that were effectively guaranteed buyers of Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, they're now staring down potential forced selling. Strategy, the corporate proxy for the Bitcoin trade has seen its premium fade as investors wait on MSCI's decision that could reclassify heavy crypto holders as investment funds and force index money out.

At the same time, liquidity is thinning. Some ETF holders are now underwater and even longer term wallets are starting to trim. And that leaves a much more speculative retail trader as the marginal buyer here, which makes every downdraft hit harder. So in that kind of setup, any macro shock hits outsized. Headlines out of Asia on Bank of Japan tightening, China's weaker data and crypto warnings, plus fresh U.S. numbers this week that could sway the Fed all feed straight into a market that is already on edge.

Guys? Mack, I'm taking a look at shares of strategy right now. They're up 1% here and overtime, but down in the regular trading session, 3%. A lot of focus on that name specifically where Bitcoin is concerned because they have been something of a whale in the Bitcoin market over the last couple of years. I mean, they cut to guidance on Bitcoin pricing, also announced a reserve fund. How should we think about what's happening there? So this announcement this morning that strategy had cashed out common stock to put together this $1.5 billion U.S. dollar reserve to pay both dividends on preferred stock and then interest on outstanding dividends.

This is really about shoring up confidence in giving shareholders an incentive to weather the storm. I will say they do have a standing filing to do so. but the move was seen as, you know, one designed to ensure that investors felt confident in staying in the trade and giving them a reason not to cash out of the stock by reassuring them that they wouldn't be forced to sell substantial Bitcoin holdings. But the fact that they even had to take that step is part of why you saw the sell off today, this erosion of confidence in strategy's position at the moment. All right, McKenzie Sagalos, great to get your thoughts on this, and you've been covering the space for a long time. Thank you.

Well, MongoDB earnings are out. It looks like the options market was correct this time. Expecting a 10% move here in overtime. It is up 13 and a half. Here are the numbers. Revenues beat $628 million in the top line versus $592 expected. Earnings per share non-gap beats as well. A $1.32 versus $0.30 expected. Also a beat on the guide for Q4. Guiding to a range of $665 to $670 million. That's $660.6.6.6. $1.57.5 at the midpoint. Expectation was for $6.25. Also, the EPS guide stronger than expected, $1.44 to $1.48, so $1.46 at the midpoint versus just $0.93 expected. Of course, with that Q4 guide, the full year revenue guide goes up as well. We're going to hear from the new CEO. He's only been on the job four weeks.

C.J. Desai, the CEO job, that is. He's been at quite a few places in enterprise software. Just coming up in overtime ahead of the analyst call. All right, looking forward to that. Markets kicking off December with losses, though, even after last week's big rebound. Historically, December has been a seasonally strong month without much volatility. Will this December prove to be the same? Well, joining us now is Max Kentner. He is chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC.

Max, it's great to have you back on the show. And let's start right there because historically, December tends to be one to remember for all the right reasons. How do you see this market shaping up right now into year end? Yeah, thanks for having me. Look, I don't think this December will be awfully different. Actually, when we look at the December Fed meeting, most likely they are going to cut. I don't see really much change from the Fed there and also in terms of language. So that probably is pretty supportive.

But overall, I think perhaps markets and investors have extrapolated a little bit too much of that November sell-off, or should we call it mini-correction, particularly around crypto. We've had an awful lot of questions around what this crypto sell-off means for equities. And fundamentally, there isn't an awful lot to do really with a broader risk asset spectrum. In fact, what this correction is done in November, it's brought back really a lot of our shorter-term positioning signals back towards sort of buy territory. So a lot of short-term hedging going on, big futures curve, put-call ratio, option skews, all of those things really a week ago flashing and still being closer to a buy signal rather

than a sales signal. So that really should mean all clear for a year-end rally. Interesting. So would you be tilting towards risk on here after the rotation we saw in November? Yeah, absolutely. 100%. So, I mean, we've been saying last week, look, this is exactly the sort of non-fundamental dips that you should actually be hoping for. In reality, you know, when we speak to investors and they say, you know what? Yeah, we probably missed the rally a little bit, but we're waiting for the dip and we'll buy the dip. We're buyers of the dips. You know, I think the worst dips are the sort of dips where you say, well, It's perhaps as a reaction to, like we've seen right now, the reporting season, where perhaps,

you know, the earnings beat rates are much lower than expected, and then you start to question the fundamentals. Whereas when you look at it this time around, it's sort of, you know, our tech companies, our AI companies that are mostly single A and double A rated, you know, are they issuing already too much debt? That makes fundamentally not a lot of sense. You know, this crypto cell off, all of this stuff really hasn't made an awful lot of fundamental sense to us.

Well, I mean, to some people, the rise in crypto didn't make a lot of sense either. But I'm curious why you think the sell-off isn't sustainable, given that we're up about almost 16% year-to-date still. And there are these questions about what the data really say, because we haven't gotten all of it post-shutdown. And we've got this holiday season to navigate where some people still have questions about the consumer, particularly the working-class consumer. Well, I would say when we look actually at somewhat higher frequency data on consumption, that still looks like the U.S. consumer is not only in a healthy state, but actually it's still rock and roll. Look at the Chicago Feds data that's been going up despite the government shutdown.

When you look at weekly retail sales, they've actually been rebounding in the last couple of weeks. Even visa spending momentum index has been rebounding since summer. We've heard from numerous retailers that Black Friday sales were actually quite good. So I would argue that not only is the U.S. consumer pretty resilient, but it's probably looked, at least that's what the higher frequency data is telling us. It's probably looked through the government shut down noise. And the only other thing fundamentally that also has changed in November is that earnings estimates for Q4 have been slashed even more.

So we have a set up where fundamentally consensus, again, is questioning the earnings backdrop. Over the last couple years, a number of folks have been saying everyday people should have crypto, Bitcoin specifically as part of their portfolios. With this volatility, is it just another risk asset, or is it potentially more prone to volatility because of the leverage out there? Yeah, look, I think what this is showing is that actually this is even more positive for gold rather than crypto, right? We have this whole debasement or this talk about the basement.

trade and this talk about the end of the dollar as a reserve currency. Now, I don't believe in that at all. But if you want to hedge against that, I think what it has, you know, what really has shown in the last two, three months is that actually the proper debasement, the proper de-dollarization hedge, if you want to hedge against that, is probably much more in precious metals rather than in crypto, given this much higher volatility. And given that, you know, there might be some regulatory burdens. Now, I don't know whether they will come true or not, But there might be some regulatory headwinds that clearly precious metals, at least relative to crypto, are not really facing.

Wow. Sounds like gold is the new gold. Max Kettner, thank you. Well, coming up, Vinvidia spending another couple billion dollars to expand its AI chip dominance. We've got details of that deal coming up. And speaking of Vindivia and AI, it's been three years since the debut of ChatGPT and the start of this AI rally. But while Nvidia is up 950% since then,

Many stocks haven't followed, which will be the leaders in the next leg of the rally. Overtime's back in two. Welcome back to overtime. Shares of Invidia and shares of Synopsis, both closing higher today. Synopsis, the top stock in the S&P 500. InVIA announcing it purchased $2 billion worth of synopsis stock. This is part of a strategic partnership to accelerate AI engineering solutions and accelerate computing. Synopsis telling CNBC that the partnership will help it take workloads that used to run for weeks and reduce them down to. to hours. Invita is saying it purchased synopsis stock at $414.79 for Sharon. As you can see, we finished up almost 5% at 438, 29. And John, maybe this is a new trend for NVIDIA, buying stakes in publicly traded companies. We'll see. They're spreading a lot of money around, Morgan. Speaking of, Invidia, it's the three-year anniversary of the AI bull market kicking off.

Open AI released Chat GPT on November 30th, 2022. Nasdaq 100s up 100s. 20% since then, more than Dublin. Some of the big winners also, Palantir, NVIDIA, again, broadcom, meta, but it hasn't been all smooth sailing for tech, some software names underperforming the last three years, Atlassian, Adobe, Trade Desk. Joining us now is Tony Wong, Science and Tech Equity Strategy Portfolio Manager at Tiro Price. Tony, welcome. I would add synopsis to that list. You can see from that chart. It hasn't stockwise done the best, but it bought ANSIS for this move into helping companies, industrial companies, visualize and simulate what the future looks like

and how it works. What does this sort of auger for the AI winners of the future, Tony? Yeah, so I think that you're hitting on a really important topic in terms of software is just that, you know, software penetration has been kind of a story that's played out in the last 20 years. It's historically in operating by humans.

And so now it's going to go into AI where agentic AI and agents actually operate the software. And so I think every software company is trying to make that shift right here. And I think it's a strong move by synopsis to have a partnership with Nvidia. And it's a good move by Indyna because it broadens their ecosystem developers here too. What's going to be the catalyzing event to software starting to get more of software, starting to get this AI bid? Yeah, we mentioned some names that have got it. Palantir, of course, kind of a host, untoward.

itself, Microsoft, but perhaps more for platform reasons than for straight-up software reasons. When are more of those pure play SaaS-type players going to get a bit? Yeah, I think there's two dynamics here. One is that the market is looking at the new AI entrance. You know, all the BC-funded L-O-M wrappers are enabled by Chatsby-T to go take on the software world and redefining. And then there's also kind of the L-O-Ms themselves, like aspirations of Chatsubit, X-AI, you know,

Anthropic, you know, they're going more vertical and what they're doing, you're seeing the capabilities like improved kind of every day. So I think that those are the two factors of the market probably needs to see evidence that the software companies are defending against. And so to me, that's the two things to think about.

I know we've been beating the drum on this for like weeks and months now, and it helped to perpetuate a pullback in like the big tech stocks a couple of weeks ago, but I'm going back at it again with you, Tony. And that's this idea of circular AI spending. So whether it is the news today with NVIDIA synopsis or even, and I realize private companies, but Open AI apparently taking a financial stake in Thrive Holdings, which is a subsidiary

of Thrive Capital, which is one of the biggest venture investors in Open AI. How to game this out and parse this out as it continues? Yeah, so I think that, you know, what really matters is that the end demand is there. And so to me, there's probably two things. One is that token economics, are making more sense, more profitable, and that the inferencing cost is going to be, you know, going down and then the payout from each token usage is going up. And so to me, that perpetrate is more of a virtuous flying wheel. So I think one is end demand. And number two is probably this training aspect is this race to AGI. Like, is that accelerating? Like, as long as that's on, I think that the market will continue to fund it. So those are probably the two things that

I think the market's looking for to assess this. AGI seems to be a very American goal here when you look at sort of the global context for this race to deploy AI on a bigger international scale. So how should we be thinking about the Chinese players in this that have had a number of their own milestones and breakthroughs in recent weeks? Yeah, well, I think that it's definitely not, we shouldn't underestimate the Chinese in terms of their ability to really innovate. And I think you're seeing that as the U.S. has put more export restriction. They've actually developed their own GPUs and processors that can rival the embargoed ones. And so, you know, I think that they're definitely very innovative, and there's a lot of capital and national policy behind it. So I think that the best way that the U.S. can go forward is to make sure the rest of the world is developing on the U.S. TechS. Act and, you know, create that R&D investment loop.

All right, Tony Wong. Great to have you on. Thank you. Thanks. Coming up, today, the market's got weak manufacturer. data, but strong retail numbers, for ISM at least. Mike Santoli takes a closer look at the cyclicals. And if people are shopping, somebody's got to ship those items to the stores. This mystery freight carrier is one of the best performers in the S&P 500 today. That name and the reason for its gains coming up on overtime after this break.

Welcome back to overtime. Here's that mystery chart. Old Dominion Freight Line among the S&P's top performers today after BMO upgraded it to outperform. The analyst there argues the stocks 40% pullback in the past year in an improving freight cycle backdrop create a nice risk-reward balance here. BMO adds that the company continues to show pricing strength. Let's stay on the cyclicals because the group is in focus today after a week ISM manufacturing report that put pressure on industrials. They had decent Black Friday sales giving consumer stocks a boost though. So senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now for a checkup on what we saw across the sectors today. Mike.

Yes, Morgan. So it continues to be a little bit of a struggle to keep their heads above water here. This is the equal weight of consumer discretionary and industrial sectors on a one-year basis, just barely positive, although a very emphatic rally off of those lows from a week ago Friday. So I think that's in the positive column. They're still kind of working their way back toward uptrends. I would argue it, and we're looking ahead toward maybe executing the rate cut playbook, see if that gives an extra tailwind. But industrials have been a little bit more of the weak point recently, whereas consumer cyclicals had their downside move a little bit of a couple months ago, let's say, during the shutdown, a lot of that soft patch fear. However, I feel like we don't talk enough about the legacy automakers and how great those stocks have been. They're both, by the way, the largest segment of the economy for both industrials and consumer products, if you think about it. And this is relative to the NASDAQ 100, right?

It's no slouch as a benchmark on a one-year basis, or a year-to-day basis, rather, really performing well. I don't have a firm handle on exactly what the bulk case is here, except manageable tariffs, in part because of the USMCA, maybe you get tariff relief. And then obviously the market likes the fact that they're throttling back on their EV investments, and maybe, again, you get lower interest rates should help autos. But it is worth noting those have been some very strong stocks, even though they have relatively small impact on the overall. index, Morgan. I mean, I love this chart. I think it's super fascinating and I certainly didn't realize that that was the case before you brought it up here on the show. And I do, to your point, wonder how much of this is just really a reflection of what we've seen overall this year as trade policy has unfolded and evolved before our eyes. Right. And these are

stocks that, you know, kind of front-loaded a little bit of the pain in terms of anticipation of tariff effect. They've gotten some relief on the other end of it. And then, you know, it sort of gets lost in the mix a little bit. It's interesting, though, because the annual sales rate for autos is not really that impressive at the moment. People are talking about pushback on high sticker prices and all the rest and even some kind of wobbles in the auto lending area, but it's not really affecting the OEMs, at least not in the market right now. Okay, Mike Santoli, thank you. We'll see you later this hour. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News update with Bertha Coombs. Hi, Bertha. Hey, Morgan. The White House said today a Navy Admiral, not Defense Secretary Pete

Hegeseth, as reported by the Washington Post, was the one who ordered a second strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean in September. The first strike did not kill everyone on board. Critics argue that the second strike could be considered a war crime because it killed the survivors of the initial strike. Videos of Luigi Menjewan, Joni's arrest played in court today during a hearing in which his legal team is trying to get key evidence thrown out before the trial. Manjoni pleaded not guilty to murdering United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson a year ago on a Manhattan sidewalk. His defense says he was illegally searched and questioned and argued that his statements to police should be barred from trial along with evidence found in his backpack. And the son of Mexican drug kingpin El Chapo changed his plea today to guilty on U.S. drug trafficking charges.

The switchup came months after his brother entered a plea deal. The two are accused of funneling massive amounts of fentanyl into the U.S. Back over to you. Bertha, thank you. Coming up, a closer look at the winners and losers of the holiday shopping season so far. Best Buy Down Today, Alta and Tapestry higher so. our makeup and handbags outselling electronics. And we are continuing to watch big gains in silver.

The commodity hitting an all-time high. We're going to dig into that move and whether it's too late to play it, whether you want to. Stay a, that's ahead. Welcome back to overtime on a down day for the markets. The Dow losing 427 points down about 9-10 to 1%. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ also falling losses of, well, about half a percent for the S&P 500, a little,

less for the NASDAQ. The crypto crush resuming, though, Bitcoin down back near April lows. Stocks tied to the asset class, also getting hit. Utilities, the worst performing sector today in the S&P, many of the power names that we track regarding the AI buildout sliding pretty dramatically, but keep in mind also some of the best performers year to date. Right now, shares of Credo technology jumping big in after hours on a strong earnings beat, the high-speed connectivity company beating on EPS and revenue, giving strong third-quarter for guidance at $335 to $345 million. That's versus estimates of $247 million.

You can see those shares are up 14%. Strong beat. Yeah, well, holiday shopping season is kicking with early Black Friday reports showing strong consumer resilience despite economic uncertainty. U.S. retail sales excluding autos were up more than 4% on Black Friday

compared to last year. That's according to MasterCard Spending Pulse. Our next guest joins us with retail winners and losers so far. Goldman Sachs, retail analyst, Kate McShane. Kate, welcome. So the president's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, says the strong Black Friday numbers prove the consumer's okay.

But I wonder, where does discounting play into it? So what did you see and what, if anything, can you conclude so far? Sure. Basically, I think the consumer is okay. I think we would agree with that. I think what we've seen over the last few months is that the consumer has been, choiceful with what they've been buying. But when there is an occasion, like back to school or a Halloween or like this weekend, Black Friday weekend and holiday, the consumer has been coming out

to shop. And so we do think the event and the occasion is something that drives the consumer. I think promotions, though, is going to be a big part of this holiday season. One, because we are in a more inflationary period. Tariffs have definitely increased prices on general merchandise. And so you will see retailers promoting more of their product as a result to offer more value to consumers. And I think that's what we saw this weekend, too. We did see stronger traffic where we think the retailers were conveying more value. So it makes me wonder about a potential margin squeeze there if you've got some tariff costs and if there has to be promotion to get people going.

Plus, we had a late Thanksgiving this year. So is there a key week, you think, where the momentum needs to continue for retailers? to actually have this season pan out the way they hope? Yes. Well, this is one of the bigger weekends. It still is despite, you know, the Black Fridays of, you know, 10 years ago where you'd see the stampedes and people rushing through the door. It's not quite that anymore, but it still is a very big weekend.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday are the biggest days of the weekend. And then usually that Saturday before the Christmas holiday, that super Saturday is the next biggest date when everybody tries to get in there last-minute shopping. But it is a shorter holiday season, just like it was last year with the late Thanksgiving. We have one extra day versus last year, but it probably won't make that much of a difference. And so you will see a tighter time schedule. What that means, though, is that those stores that offer same-day delivery and free buy-online pickup in store should benefit from that last-minute shopping. So, Kate, in light of all this, who are the winners and losers do you think this holiday season?

Well, I think, again, like the ones that are going to be offering the most value are going to be the winners for the season. Value and convenience, I would say. I mean, those seem to be the core tenants of retail right now. And so, of course, you know, the biggest winner of value and convenience is Walmart. And so we do think that we will continue to see them win both market share with both a higher income consumer and a lower income consumer. We also think Dick's sporting goods has been really successful at driving their growth in the last few quarters. We've seen mid-single-digit growth from them. Footwear and apparel continue to be big gifts for the holiday season.

And as a result of that, Walmart and Dix would be the two biggest winners. Okay. I will tell you, as a shopper this weekend, the amount of times I clicked on a good online and the inventory was sold out. How to think about inventory levels this holiday season, I guess this kind of goes. back to some of what you're talking about with, you know, the promotional landscape here and perhaps just as importantly, how to think about the online shopping mix versus the brick and mortar one and what's more profitable. Yes. So maybe starting with the in-stocks and the inventory, I think what we noticed this weekend, we were very happy to see full shelves. I think there was a

period a few months ago when all of the tariff news was hitting that maybe there wouldn't be as much product hitting the shelves. And I think what's happened is these retailers, have been really selective about their assortment. They have bought depth into their assortment, maybe not as much breadth, but we should continue to see in stocks and strong inventory as a result of that. There are going to be categories, though,

that sell through really well. We noticed in some of the toy categories, early in the morning, we had already noticed that there were products sold through or sold out. And so, again, that's a testament, I think, to the health of the consumer. And as for brick and mortar versus online,

we definitely are still seeing the faster growth coming from online shopping, but the lines are being blurred, right? Because there are still people going into the stores, and sometimes you can buy online in the store. Or sometimes you can buy online and pick it up in the store and then continue your shopping in the store. So those lines are really being blurred. But the online shopping is definitely,

or the digital, is the fastest growing area. Okay. Kate McShane, thank you. Maybe that perhaps explains why the Dow Transport's actually finished fractionally higher today, and it was freight names that led the game. All right. Well, shares of MongoDB jumping more than 15 and a half percent right now and overtime. Coming up, we're going to hear from the company's brand new CEO about the quarter. Overtimes back in two. Welcome back to overtime win among the winners in the S&P 500 today as Goldman Sachs added the name to its conviction buy list.

Goldman saying the company has a best in class Las Vegas business, adding that improvement in China's Macau region will be a capital return enabler for win. And you can see those shares finished up 3%. And shares of MongoDB up more than 16% at the moment in overtime after reporting revenue and EPS that beat expectations and a strong guide for Q4. I spoke with new MongoDB CEO, C.J. Desai, four weeks into the job about the growth. One of the things that really is super good to see and encouraging is that our customer account continues to grow very healthy across our self-service channel. and now we are at 62,500 customers, and for year-to-date, 8,000 new customers growing 65% year-over-year. So overall, just exceptional quarter, raise the guidance for Q4, end the year, and the year, and the business has a very strong momentum. Many public software companies have been telling me over the past two years that while AI interest is picking up from customers,

that's still not a material driver of their revenue. But with these results, I asked Assai if that's changed. That story is still the same. We are still fairly early. Our AI traction is real and the science are encouraging. But the numbers that they speak for themselves is primarily driven by our strength in core business. So even though there are many enterprises who are currently using MongoDB for their agentic workloads, and they are trying to ensure that their agents are fundamentally transforming their business,

but it's nothing of scale yet. Well, given that it's not AI yet, I asked what is driving the upside under the hood? I would say this is tale of two cities in a very positive way. So on the high end of the market or towards enterprises and large enterprises, we had significant growth in the America's large customer. And we also saw broad-based trend in Europe, Middle East, and Africa. So that drove the growth in the enterprise and the large enterprise segment for third quarter. In addition, our self-service business delivered exceptional results,

and we had many, many customers, including digital natives, AI natives, and developers around the world, who are building on MongoDB, and those results came in very strong as well. So tail of two positive cities, one on the upper end of the market, and the other truly product-led growth self-service motion that is functioning really, really well, and these customers will be scaling as they move forward as we go into this quarter and the next fiscal year. Looks like a 52-week high if it trades here tomorrow, Mongo's and. The panelist call starts at 5 Eastern. All right.

Well, the commodities complex bouncing back in the past week. Gold and silver on pace for their best years since 1979. What's driving the precious metals trade? Can it continue? That's next. Welcome back to overtime. Shares of Moderna falling 7% today after the FDA issued an internal memo linking COVID-19 vaccines to the deaths of 10 children between 2021 and 2024.

Some doctors asking for the data behind that. The FDA is saying it would place new restrictions on which vaccines come to market. In the memo, first reported by the New York Times, the agency says it will rethink its flu shot guidelines and require companies to present more data. Well, turning to the commodities complex, which is broadly higher today. Oil back near $60 per barrel for the first time in three weeks. That's for WTI. Gold is at a six-week high. Silver, though, it's a clear standout.

It's up nearly 3 percent today, hitting a fresh record. It's up over 20% in the past month. Joining us now is Warren Pyes, 314 research co-founder and strategist. Warren, it's great to have you back on. There's so much to talk about here, but I do have to start with silver because it's more than doubled this year. It's a massive move, and it feels very short, squeezy. Want to get your thoughts on that and kind of takes us back to the 80s and the Hunt's brothers. Your thoughts?

Yeah, the first things first, I always think about silver as high beta gold. Yeah, there have been worries about or. Can thoughts of a short squeeze going all the way back to the Han brothers? And it's kind of a conspiracy theory. Like, is there, in the bottom line of the conspiracy theory is, is there enough physical silver to meet the financial demands that have been placed on it? I don't know about all that. I mean, there are reports that the inventory levels are low in London, Shanghai, and the CME in the United States. So I think that feeds into it.

But I just think it's in, we're in this debasement world. That's what it comes back to me. It's just like high beta gold. I think asset owners are. are going to win in this world. And the liquidity blob moves from asset to asset. Silver is like 10% of the size of gold. And so it's a lot easier to get things like squeezes there.

And of course, there's that history of the Hunt Brothers. Yeah, the liquidity blob. I like that. So does gold still have room to run here too? Then seasonally, December tends to be a very strong year for the commodity. Yeah, we've liked gold all year last year. The point we've made is that we think we're

in a secular bowl market, a new secular bowl market, And just stepping back, when you think, when you've identified a gold, secular bull market, kind of the same thing applies to silver is you have to just let those positions run, rebalance. But don't try and guess where it's going to end up going because these things go farther and higher than you ever expect. And so 2023, 24 were good years, especially last year was a good year for gold. We saw it rise in the face of a stronger dollar and rising real yields. And then this year, the dollar backed off and you can kind of really see the full force of that secular bowl. I'd expect that to continue.

I think the debasement trade is a real thing. I know a lot of people like to laugh at it or scoff at it. And I think a lot of the cross-asset moves today are come down to the leaks that Kevin Hasse is going to be the next Fed chairman. And the market's reading that as an appendage of the administration. And the bottom line is, you see, the 10-year yields go up 10 basis points. For instance, the bottom line is, I think that that is feeding. That's fuel for the debasement trade.

How about copper? Where does that fit into all this? Yeah, the way I see the commodity complex right now is I think there are three broad drivers. We talked about the basement trade, and that's really for monetary metals. And then I see the AI buildout. The AI data center build out is kind of a vortex sucking so much of the economy into it. And that's where I think, you know, you're seeing positive price action out of copper. You're actually starting to see natural gas prices turn higher.

And I'd put it in that in that category. I think it's, you know, they're going to be wobbles along the way. especially when you talk about like tariffs and things like that. But I think in general, those areas of the commodity segment sector are set up well. We're still not big fans of the oil segment. So like if you're looking at the overall commodity indices, those are usually trade-weighted and dominated by oil, though. Oh, it's like you took my next question out of my mouth. Wanted to get your thoughts on oil. I had a little bit of a bounce here. OPEC Plus meeting yesterday holding production steady. But we do have peace talks ongoing with Ukraine.

We have apparently correspondence between President Trump and Maduro and Venezuela. Where does oil go from here? I think it goes lower. We've been bearish on oil all year. Oil on the water is at a multi-year high. So that's the real glut. A lot of people look at those weekly EIA inventory reports and they say, you know, there's no real glut here.

The inventories are normal or even low for like a five-year trailing basis, never mind the fact that the last five years have been abnormal. But I think when you add in the oil that's on the water, you can see that slow-moving train wreck kind of just about to hit the mark. about to hit the market. And so the bottom line is the crude oil market has to digest all that oil that's floating out there in transit right now. And in order to do that, you need to open up storage. And in order to open up storage, you need have prices go lower and the curve slip into contango. This is the point we've been making. Until we get to that place, I don't think it's

safe to go back into the oil market. And so despite the fact we're bullish on monetary commodities, despite the fact that we're bullish on this AI data center buildout and how it impacts things like natural gas and copper, it dominates the broad commodity indices. So it's hard to get, if you're taking a big picture of you, it's hard to get very bullish on the overall commodity complex when oil is this out of whack. Okay, Warren Pies. Great to get your thoughts. Well, coming up, we just talked about Silver's big run.

It comes as crypto slides. Silver has doubled in 2025. Bitcoin's negative. What, if anything, does it say about the markets? Mike Santoli is waiting in the wings when we come right back. Welcome back. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. We'll get more on the consumer when we get results from Cigna Jewelers in the morning.

American Eagle right here on overtime. Other names reporting are Asana Crowdstrike Octa and Marvell, which will be key for the AI trade discussions. Now let's bring back Mike Santoli for another check on crypto. Yeah, so this breakdown, further breakdown in Bitcoin today, Kind of interesting when it's paired with the rally in silver that you guys were just talking about there. Over a two-year basis, kind of love when this happens from different directions. These two separate assets meet in the middle here. I'm not suggesting it's purely a one-for-one, but as Bitcoin has kind of lost its status or its utility as a kind of monetary asset not correlated with others

or something that's really separate from things like tech stocks, a lot of that kind of retail aggressive. money that wants some kind of non-dollar monetary asset, probably making its way to silver. Silver is typically very much a kind of retail driven, always called poor man's gold, high beta gold, as Warren Paz was just saying. So kind of interesting, you're seeing a little bit of an uptake there. Now, take a look at the market caps of Coinbase relative to CME. CME is the biggest financial derivatives exchange, and at times, Coinbase has actually been larger than it in market cap turns.

It's now falling back away. Actually, Coinbase has more revenue, but only about half the profitability of CME. So it shows you market preferences really shifting radically here, John. Mike, if silver is poor man's gold and Bitcoin was supposed to be the new gold, and silver and Bitcoin are sort of meeting back up again, is this perhaps an expression of the leverage that we see in Bitcoin? I imagine there's not a lot of leverage in the silver trade. Well, there's probably some leverage.

Certainly silver futures is part of the story there. just, you know, exchange-based leverage. Look, I definitely think there's been a leverage wipeout in Bitcoin. That's been clear. Now, how much the asset class was dependent on ever-increasing amounts of gearing of borrowing is unclear to me. But I do think it is noteworthy that you've seen that flush. And even interestingly, tech stocks trying to kind of withstand it a little bit today, so maybe seeing if they're not as length as they used to be. So we'll see, you know, it goes from here. Yeah, they're meeting in the middle, coming from, you know, different directions. I'm not sure that means that it's necessarily, they're interchangeable in every

respect. All right. Mike Santoli. Thank you. Yeah. Morgan, we got Mongo still up more than 15 and a half percent here. And interesting to see synopsis and invidia with this tie up. Synopsis had been underperforming. We'll see if it's time for some of the others to get a bit. Yeah. And it's really fascinating. Just this year in general, the last couple of months seeing Nvidia, not only stakes and make strategic investments and strike partnerships with startups but to be doing this with large publicly traded tech companies as well Intel of course being a recent one too for sure all right well it was a down day to start December but that does it for us here at overtime