Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Twitter Takeover? 4/14/22

Episode Date: April 14, 2022

The talk of the tape is Elon Musk’s maneuver to takeover Twitter. Will he be successful? Alex Kantrowitz from Big Technology and Casey Newton from Platformer discuss. Plus, stocks closed at session lows and major averages notched another week of losses. Cameron Dawson from Fieldpoint Private explains why it’s time to focus on high quality and defensive-leaning names. And, Michael Santoli looks at M&A activity in his “Last Word.”

All right, welcome to Overtime. I'm Scott Wapney. You just heard the bells. We, of course, are just getting started here at Post 9. We'll get to this still volatile market in just a few, but the talk of the tape today is no doubt the Musk maneuver to take over Twitter, whether it will succeed and what it means either way. We could get some clues in less than an hour from now when Twitter reportedly holds an all-hands meeting with employees. That is going to be very interesting. In the meantime, let's welcome in our two guests, Alex Kantrowitz and Casey Newton. And guys, it's great to have you both here. Alex, I'll start with you. I mean, even Musk said he doesn't know if this is going to happen. The market seems to have placed its bet. What do you think? I don't think there's any way that this happens. I mean, you definitely mentioned the market.

Twitter stock is down today. It doesn't look like they believe that there's anything to Musk. Musk doesn't have the funding in place yet. I mean, he could sell Tesla shares, but, you know, it's a highly unlikely thing for him to do. He said it himself today at TED that it's not a money-making thing to him. It's an ideology thing to him. So I think the most likely outcome here is that the board rejects his offer and that he sells his shares. And that paves a very difficult road for Twitter in the months ahead. Casey, is this as easy a no as Alex paints? Well, every time I make a prediction about what's about to happen with Twitter and Elon Musk, I get it completely wrong.

So I'm inclined to think that Alex is right. You know, normally when you see somebody mount a hostile takeover like this, they line up the funding first. Elon Musk has made it very clear that this plan does not have a lot of details. But stranger things have happened, and I have learned to expect the unexpected when it comes to this Twitter user and Twitter. So let me ask you this, because I just exchanged some texts with Dick Costolo. He's the former Twitter CEO, as you know. I asked him what he thinks is going to happen, and he says, quote, he thinks that Musk loses patience with the formal process. You can take that for what you will and what that means to where this all goes. But,

Casey, what do you think about that? It sounds all fine and good on the surface, but this is going to be a longer road than maybe Musk expects? And at least in Costolo's mind, he just loses patience with the formality of it. Yeah, it's kind of a good question. How long is Elon Musk's attention span? And if it were really long, would he really be running three companies at the same time, maybe trying to run a fourth? So I do think that there's an argument that he loses patience.

But in particular, I think he would lose patience with just the various irritations of having to run a company like that, right? He's going to have a huge section of the user base who are, you know, angry at him every single day. And there are a lot of SEC issues, I think, to worry about in the run-up to this. So there's a lot for him that could potentially be very obnoxious to deal with. I mean, Alex, the implication, of course, from Costolo is that he's not going to stick around, right? He's just going to lose patience with the formality of the whole thing, and then he's going to end up bouncing.

He's, you know, look, his tweets would suggest otherwise, at least right now. 3.30 this afternoon, he tweets, it would be utterly indefensible not to put this offer to a shareholder vote. They own the company, not the board of directors. What do you think about that? Because, I mean, look, the board can make a determination clearly that the offer doesn't meet the value that they think the company has. Yeah, I have to disagree with Dick on this one. I mean, there's this myth that Elon has a short attention span and won't see things through. I mean, look at it. Look what he's done with Tesla and SpaceX.

When this guy gets something in his head, he goes for it and he does it. I think the main question is not going to be whether he wants to pay attention to it longer, but whether he ultimately looks at the amount of work that gets put into running a company like Twitter and decides that it's worth the sacrifice from Tesla, from SpaceX, which are, again, two parts of his, you know, ideas to make the world better, make us a multi-planetary species, you know, make us, you know, bring us to electric vehicles. But I'll say I watched him at TED today and he gave some really well thought out answers about what he wants to do

with Twitter better than I was expecting. So I think, you know, what Casey mentioned earlier, expect the unexpected with Elon is spot on. But again, I just think that it's a funding issue for him. And, you know, I think that it's a bluff really to try to punish Twitter for, you know, not not taking his input seriously at the beginning. So so you don't think that he'll he'll raise his offer? And let me bring you, excuse me, another tweet by way of Mark Cuban, who doesn't take this whole thing serious to begin with. He says, my conclusion, Elon Musk is blanking with the SEC. His filing with the SEC allows him to say he wants to take a company private for $5420. Then he has a laugh emoji versus, I'm considering taking Tesla private at $5420, then he has a laugh emoji, versus M considering taking Tesla private at $420,

funding secured, price go up, his shares get sold, profit, SEC like WTF just happened. What do you make of that? Yeah, I think Cuban's right. Look, I think that Elon has the will to do this if he would want to go through it. He has a wherewithal to do it um but again like the details aren't there the money isn't there um you know we can expect unexpected with elon but all the signs right now point to him you know screwing with the fc the sec twitter investors and twitter employees and twitter executives right now the man is the master troll on twitter and it does appear like we're in the middle of one of his games. So, Casey, do you agree that this best and final offer, which Musk claimed it is, really is? Well, it's pretty unusual in any business negotiation for the first offer to be the final one, right?

It was kind of a strange thing to put there. You know, Elon said on stage at TED today that there is a plan B, which he declined to specify. And that actually leads me to believe that he's not just messing around with the SEC. I really am inclined to take him at face value that he does want to find some way to do that. And it may involve making more than one offer. But Alex, you don't buy that one bit, it sounds like. So we at least have a debate on what the motives of Mr. Musk really are, Alex. Yeah, that's right. You know, I think that, you know, I don't think that there's going to be, you know, much counteroffer

here. Again, like if Elon had the funding lined up to do this, then I would say, OK. But once I read in the SEC filing that it's pending the completion of securing the financing, you know, that to me told me everything I need to know. And it does seem like the market agrees with me here. Right. The Twitter stock is down today. Not anywhere close to the 5420 that Elon wants to buy it at. So, you know, maybe he comes in with a lower offer, but I don't see how that gets it done either. Maybe, Casey, somebody else comes in. Have we entertained that idea that there could be a so-called white knight out there to come in and make a counter bid? Maybe you have some sort of

auction process or a better set of bidding process here. And who might that be? Well, I do think that, yeah, the possibility is there. A lot of companies have kicked the tires on Twitter in the past. We know that Apple has looked at it, Disney, Salesforce. The thing is, though, people look at this company and once they get a handle on what it would actually mean to own it, they always decide, you know what, we don't want to own it after all. So you could argue that things have changed since the last time that Twitter was on the market. But a lot of those fundamental issues remain, and it has some really aggressive growth targets it's supposed to hit, and no clear path for getting there. Okay, so that's a great point

you make. And Alex, that's where I'd like to play off of. So they have these targets. There's no clear path, at least in Casey's mind, on how to get there. And basically the evidence is not there that they even have the ability to do that. So how can they, in good faith, reject this offer? Based on what? They can come out and say, we don't think it adequately values the company. We have a plan. But is that plan really credible? Yeah, it's a really good question.

Look, I think the way that they reject the offer, if they end up doing it, is they say last July they were at $71. OK, Elon's offer is in the 50 range. So are they going to say that they're going to take $15 less per share on Elon? Now, I know today they're in the 40s, right? So they're not exactly where they were back then. But they can say, listen, it was easy to get down here. It should be easy to get back up there. They had a tremendous year by Twitter standards last year when it came to revenue, bringing in $5.08 billion,

which was up 37% over the year before. So what they can say is like, look, maybe outside of what happened when Elliott Management came in, right now they're actually having a pretty good year financially. And the path that they're on is much better than it has been in the past. And the stock has been higher. And they just put a new CEO in, Hrag Agrawal. And maybe they want to give him some time to see the vision through. So I do think that they can step up and say, listen, we think that this is much better going on the path that it is. Now, once Elon sells his shares, it could be a problem for them because they would get sued. Well, see, that's part of the issue as well, Casey, that if they reject it and Musk sues,

it goes back to my point of them just rejecting it out of hand and saying we have a plan, but is the plan really credible to get where they suggest that the share price should or could be? And that's an open question. Yeah. And I think, you know, you cannot overstate the pressure that this puts Parag Agarwal under. This guy has only been the CEO since November. The activist investors who just got off the board last year expect him to add about 100 million users by the end of this year. And there's not a clear path for how to do that. So if the board decides to reject this offer, I can absolutely imagine shareholders suing, saying this was going to be our best chance to get a good return given how little we know

about the plans that Parag has for what's next. So that's very tricky. That's going to cause a lot of chaos at Twitter in the meantime. And I think it's going to cause a lot of attrition among employees who say, you know what, we don't want to be around for this. But what if I'm if I am a Alex, a disgruntled shareholder and I say, you know what? The heck with this. Musk's my best chance. You know, I think the company's gotten a little too liberal. I'm tired of the whole cancel deal of throwing people off of Twitter. They keep telling me they know how to grow the business. They know how to grow engagement and they know how to get users.

And they're going to do this and they're going to do that. And they're going to raise the share price anywhere back towards the 70 some odd dollars that it was trading at for a 52 week high. Why wouldn't I take this deal? Well, look, I don't think that Elon's idea to put this to a shareholder vote is a bad idea. I mean, we'll see if he comes through with the money afterwards. But look, I mean, if you're right, if you're going to say this is about cancel culture, Donald Trump was kicked off the platform well before July 2021, which is when the stock was at 70. So, you know, it's just hard for me to say that, like, because the company has restricted free speech and has become too woke, the stock price is down. You know, I would look. I think that Twitter has gone overboard with its moderation in certain instances. Don't get me wrong. But however, like if you think about this from an advertiser's perspective, you know, they don't want to be in

the middle of a neo-Nazi flame war. They wanted to be in the middle of a brand safe, quote unquote, environment. And I think that when Twitter has committed to moderating more, they've made more money, again, up 37 percent last year to 5.08 billion. So, you know, it's going to be up to shareholders potentially. And you know what, this might end up being the best offer. This is why these decisions are really tough. And it's why Twitter is exposed to liability if it rejects the offer. So like Casey mentioned, you know, this is an extremely difficult moment for a brand new CEO who was the CTO before. And it's not like he worked in policy or anything like that. Twitter may be,

you know, ultimately trying to pull out sort of all the stops to keep Musk from accumulating anything more than he already has. The old Wall Street tool called a poison pill. Our Leslie Picker is following that angle because there was a report today by the Wall Street Journal that Twitter was, in fact fact considering doing that. That's, you know, the tried and true thing that some of these companies try when you have an activist show up on the scene. That's right, Scott. This is, you know, straight out of a typical activist playbook. What you would do is you would initiate a poison pill to prevent the activist shareholder from obtaining more of a control of the company. Now, this could be part of one of two things. Number one, it could be flat out

they reject Elon Musk's desire to acquire more shares and potentially a hostile takeover of the company. But number two, it could also be that they just put this poison pill in so that they can have some time without distraction of him acquiring or whatnot, so that they can really consider the offer and have those conversations with Musk, their advisors. I mean, it's not something that you can necessarily do in a few hours and just say, okay, fine, we're done, we're going to go for this. Are we considering, Leslie, based on your sources throughout the financing industry, if you will, what the likelihood is that this is not going to end up being a Musk offer all by himself, that he will have some sort of funding secured at some point along the way? We just don't know what it is yet.

Yeah, Scott, I've been calling around across Wall Street, different financing sources to get their take on things, and there's no direct evidence that he's reached out to potential partners at this point in time, at least none that I can gather, you know, with regard to maybe a private equity or a sovereign wealth fund that would join him in taking on this bid. As he mentioned in the SEC filing this morning, financing is not lined up at this point in time. That said, he has a lot of options at his disposal. This is not just some run-of-the-mill activist that comes in and says they want to acquire Twitter. I mean, he is the wealthiest man in the world.

There are different loans he can take out against his Tesla stake that would, while limited in how much he can, you know, borrow against that stake, he can get there. And then there are other options. I think Mark Cuban threw out the Dow idea of, you know, he could probably raise like a billion dollars in a day just by, you know, tweeting, hey, contribute to my Dow and, you know, let's take over Twitter. I mean, there are creative options that Musk could have that wouldn't be afforded to just your

run-of-the-mill activist. Okay, so last words, Alex and Casey. The issue of legacy from Musk, okay? If this thing goes the way that Mark Cuban suggests, at least in his mind, that it might. Or even Costolo suggesting he's just going to lose interest in the formality of the process. At some point, do we stop saying that this is just Musk being Musk, Alex? Is there a broader implication from something that feels serious at first like this and takes a turn in a different direction that leaves you with a sour taste in your mouth about the person and the process, if you will? Well, I'll say this about where we're going to end up with

Elon. All indications are that he's not going to end up making this purchase of Twitter and he's going to end up selling his shares. And that is going to send Twitter on a really rough path ahead. The stock will go down. The expectations will be high. Investors might sue the company. Employee morale right now is extremely rattled and it's going to be very difficult for the company to fulfill a lot of the goals that it set, which were already reaches beforehand. And so what you could end up happening is like you talk about the legacy, right? Like what's the legacy of Elon going to be like if that happens? Well, he could sit on the side, cross

his arms and be like, I tried. I tried to make it work with Twitter. You're going to have a 2024 election that's going to come up with a ton of difficult content moderation problems. And he's going to be looked at as a hero for someone. What could have it been if Elon was in control? And maybe that's ends up as the best option for him. You know, someone who's looked at as a potential savior that never happened while Twitter struggles. And his point is proven that way. That's my perspective. Last word on the legacy. Do you agree? Do you have your own take? I think everyone agrees that Elon Musk and the world would be happier if Elon Musk did not own Twitter. And I don't know how we're going to get there, but I do think that is the final destination.

All right. Well, he has another tweet that was just put out four minutes ago. Thank you, gentlemen. Leslie Picker, my thanks to you, as always. Taking Twitter private at 5420 should be up to shareholders, not the board, he tweeted a little while ago. A poll he wants. Yes or no? You've got 109,000 votes already, 23 hours to go in that. He must be channeling our Twitter question of the day, too, because ours is, we want to know, do you want Elon Musk to buy Twitter? You can head to at CNBC Overtime and cast your vote. We're going to reveal the results at the end of the show. We're all over the latest Twitter news as we await that reported all hands meeting. It's coming up at the top of the hour, 5 p.m. Eastern time. We're going to

bring you any news that breaks as it happens there. Plus, more on today's market action, including that sell-off and that big one in the Nasdaq today as interest rates rise again. Is the worst over, though? We'll discuss. And later, the semis feeling the smackdown again today. Just ahead, you'll hear from one investor who's got skin in the game, why he thinks there is more upside for that group. time. We'll be right back. As you know by now, stocks could not string together another day of gains as interest rates move significantly higher. Let's welcome in Cameron Dawson, the chief market strategist of Fieldpoint. She's back with us today. It's nice to see you again. Welcome. Thank you for having me.

You know, so just when we thought we were maybe out of the woods, rates take a big jump, stocks, certainly tech, takes a big fall. Is that a signal that it's too soon to declare the worst is over? I think it is because the reality is that we're now in those tech areas seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows, which means that the trend has certainly weakened significantly and we're no longer in an uptrend in those areas. And the real challenge is about interest rates and it's real interest rates.

And the liquidity environment has worsened very rapidly for these long duration growth oriented names. Just a month ago, the real interest rate on the 10 year was negative 1.1%. Today, it's just negative 0.1 percent. So this should put downward pressure on valuations. And so kind of regardless of what we're seeing in the good earnings side of things, we think valuation is where things continue to get challenged. See, the flip side of that is that, you know, the more bullish folks who come on,

including some that we've heard this week, like like Scott Minard suggests, look, everybody's gotten way too negative. So that makes me want to have a contrarian view in and of itself. Not. And I think that rates are going to top out and get back into a range, you know, around 250 on the 10 year, not 280 plus where they are today. Is there something to that? Well, I think we need to be careful when we're thinking about rates topping out because it's why they are topping out. If the Fed is still saying that it wants to move to tighter policy, it's still raising interest rates, it's still doing QT, and yet rates start to roll over, that's a sign that the market is getting scared about growth and that it's likely pricing

in rate cuts in the future. That's what happened in October of 2018. So even as the Fed was still raising rates, what we saw is long rates and short rates start to rollover. And that's what really set up for those really weak markets in December of 2018. So I'm not so sure that I would find solace in rates moving lower from here because of what it could say about growth. So are you suggesting then because you think valuations still have to come down and you're not so sold on the fact that rates have topped that you don't think the lows are in? I think that we retest the lows from earlier this year. We could move slightly lower off of those levels. The lesson that we learned from 1994, which is Bullard's favorite soft landing, is that the Fed was raising interest rates rapidly.

And we actually saw four retests of the lows that we saw during that year. So I think that's still very much on the table. And then the question, if we move lower from there, is really on earnings, because we do see valuations moving lower, but can earnings offset that? And so we have to see what companies are saying about commentary going into this earnings season, and if they're going to start moving numbers down. We're hearing some shaky things coming out of the consumer, which could mean that some of those earnings numbers are too high. So that's the key driver if we retest the lows or move lower. I mean, at some point, though, the market must know a lot of this, right? I mean, the economy is still very strong, even if you're hearing some, you know, maybe tepid comments regarding the consumer. You know, the market itself has had an

amazing ability to absorb bad news, which suggests to some that it's all in the market. And then really at this point, what doesn't the market know? It does know that the economy is strong, so you can absorb a bit of a slowing consumer. We're not talking about a crashing consumer. Well, I think that the reality that we're dealing with is that even though the Fed is signaling that it wants to be tighter, it actually isn't tight at today's levels. And so that's why the market can remain so resilient and why we really haven't seen any kind of stress show up in the economy yet. We know that every time that the Fed hikes, something breaks. Sometimes it's systemic, like housing in 07 and 08 or corporate balance sheets in the early 2000s. And sometimes it's small and contained, like energy in 2014. So the question is, if the Fed really does deliver on those 8, 9 rate hikes,

what breaks this cycle? And we don't know the answer to that yet, but we do expect to see credit spreads moving higher, which should start to reveal the truths under the surface. So what's your best play right now then and why? So we really want to position portfolios to be late cycle because in a late cycle environment, you see two things. You see growth slowing and liquidity tightening. That's exactly what we have. So we want to focus on names that are higher quality as well as have that more defensive bent. So those are the healthcare names. Those are the utility names. Now, this doesn't mean that you can't own tech, you can't own growth. You just have to be very disciplined about valuations because if you're owning high quality names at high

valuations, those are still susceptible to downward valuation adjustments as interest rates continue to rise. So this time in this part of the market, you really do have to keep high quality in position for later cycle. Clearly, you're playing a little defense, though. Certainly, that's the way it seems. Cameron, it's good to talk to you again. It's good to have you back on Overtime. We'll see you again soon. That's Cameron Dawson joining us. Up next, Taiwan's Semi, upping its revenue forecast despite the global chip shortage.

There's the stock. Market doesn't care. Down 3%, which is why we're breaking down the Semi space and how to play it with somebody who owns some very well-known stocks. We'll do that after the break. Plus, Twitter reportedly holding an all-hands meeting at the top of the hour. We'll have the latest in everything you need to watch for. That is the story of the day. Overtime's back right after this. We're back on Overtime. It's time for a CNBC News Update with Shepard Smith. Hi, Shep.

Hi, Scott. From the news on CNBC, here's what's happening. A major blow to the Russian military. The flagship of its Black Sea fleet, the Moskov, badly damaged and crew offloaded. The Ukrainians claim they launched missiles that struck that ship and caused an explosion. The Pentagon reports it can't confirm. The Russians acknowledge there was a fire and evacuation. And just minutes ago, their state news agency sent word that the ship sank in rough seas. It's the same ship that early in the invasion had its crew threaten Ukrainian soldiers on Snake Island and received a bird-finger salute and a go-F-yourself in return. Here's a stamp commemorating that moment.

Now the Moskov is at the bottom of the Black Sea. Abortions are legal, or I should say illegal, in Florida after 15 weeks starting July the 1st. Governor Ron DeSantis signed that bill into law today. Right now, Florida allows abortions at up to 24 weeks of pregnancy. And the attorney for an unarmed black man in Michigan's family, whom police officers shot and killed after a traffic stop 10 days ago, says that they want the officer fired and prosecuted. The shooting of Patrick Leoya is now under review. The unnamed officer currently on paid leave with his police power suspended.

New developments on all of these stories tonight on the news right after Jim Kramer, 7 Eastern CNBC. Scott, back to you. All right, Shep, we'll see you then. That's Shepard Smith. Another rough day for the semis, a key indicator of where the market may be heading, at least to the investment committee's Josh Brown, who told us this in overtime. The semis are coming off of a higher low. That's really important. You need to see transports. You need to see semis and homebuilders. Most importantly, they don't have to break out.

They don't have to even work. They have to stop going down. Higher low after a prolonged decline is your signal. Keep a close eye on those charts that haven't been able to find a bid where there are quality stocks. I think that's going to be very meaningful. Josh Brown, of course, let's get to today's halftime overtime. Welcome in Jason Snipe of Odyssey Capital. He owns a few major chip names. It's good to see you, Jace. Welcome. Good to see you, Scott. I know you're watching this as closely as probably Josh is, but the importance of semis stemming the tide of these losses for the overall market.

I mean, you own some Qualcomm, NVIDIA. You're right in the thick of it. Yeah, obviously, Josh makes a great point here. The technicals obviously tell a story, but as it relates to the fundamentals and just looking at cyclicals here, yeah, we know the numbers. NVIDIA has struggled this year, down 26 percent, trading at a little over 31 times forward. Qualcomm is obviously down around 24 percent and very valuable here. I mean, in terms of just from a pricing perspective, only trading at 11 times forward.

But this, for me, from a fundamental perspective, is really a story on the supply chains. You know, supply chains are struggling. We're talking about, you know, they're not easing in this space potentially until 2023. So that's obviously concerning for this market. You know, these names have obviously run particularly NVIDIA a lot, particularly NVIDIA over the last decade. But they're struggling. They're struggling this year. And I think the shortage plays a big role here. Because NVIDIA, let's zero in on that for a minute, because it's become a bit of a battleground on Wall Street. There's a downgrade recently. It's widely owned. Viewers watching right now are probably in that name. And they've done very well over the last 12 months and beyond,

as you said. Over the last three months, months though it's down 20 i mean do you have confidence that the story is about to turn for nvidia as much as you love the company and the fundamentals yeah i just i just think what as it relates to nvidia you know they had a really strong analyst day of just screaming innovation i mean the beltways that they sit in or really reside in, I think, have a lot of tailwinds going forward. But I think this is just really a story, as I alluded to earlier, supply chains, kind of the macro backdrop as folks are shifting between growth and value and looking for other opportunities in other parts of the market. It's run a lot, you know, so it's I could see why it's felt some pain, you know, as of late. But but I still like the story. It's a long term hole for us.

And we're likely not doing anything with the position. Give me your view on the transports. I mean, it's such an important part of the market and really in the epicenter of a lot of the concern about where the economy is going. These stocks have gotten hit lately, too. You have the IYT, which is the ETF. Others may be in that who are watching as well rather than picking individual names. Yeah. So the IYT, obviously, I mean, you know, month to date, I mean, over the last month is down a little over 8 percent. And I think this story is really related to, you know, the macro backdrop as well. I mean, when you're talking about a Fed that's starting few T, you know, and starting it with a bang. Right. We're pricing in 50 basis

point hike in May. We've already raised 25 basis points. And if we're looking to, and we saw PPI and CPI prints this week, which were really hot, you know, I could see, obviously, the economy starting to slow. And as you know, markets are forward looking, you know, and that is part of, I think, why we've seen a pullback in the transports but it's a strong indicator on a consumer activity economic activity period uh so I'm I'm looking for the market to do some of the work here as it relates to supply chain starting to ease we saw a little softness and core uh CPI uh this week so I'm I'm hopeful you know but but I can see why these these names are challenged here.

And quickly, before I let you go, I mean, the homebuilders beaten up, to say the least. Sentiment has been terrible. If you're worried about the consumer, you've got Home Depot and Lowe's. You still like those names or are you worried? I know you like them if you own them. So don't even entertain that silly question. Do you still have confidence in them? Yeah. So I obviously I like the the the home builder tangential names, obviously, like Home Depot and Lowe's, which are home improvement. What I will say as it relates to the home improvement trade or really home building period, you know, with a 30-year mortgage north of 5%, you know, prices up 20% year over year for homes. Yeah, I mean, the trade is feeling some pain. But what I will say is for that buyer who did get into that home, you know, it's likely that it does need some work. So I think there's going

to be a lot of activity in the home improvement names. And obviously that Lowe's and Home Depot have struggled thus far, both down and over 20 percent. So I think as we get into the back end of this year, those names will start to start to move in an upward trajectory. All right. He's Odyssey's Jason Snipe. I appreciate the time. We'll see you again soon. I'll see you back on the half for certain. All right. Still ahead. We're watching Twitter. The company reportedly holding on, holding that all hands meeting top of the hour with employees. That's just 20 minutes away. Elon Musk's bid hanging in the balance. We want to know, do you want Elon Musk to buy Twitter? You can head to at CNBC overtime and cast your vote. He's holding a vote on Twitter as we speak. So we're counter polling him, if you will.

I want the results. Please go there, at CNBC Overtime. But first, today's Under the Radar movers, Christina Parts and Nevelos. What do we have coming up? Well, first, turn off that streaming platform, lace up those Nikes, and get your butt on the Peloton. It's time for a ride through the rapid recap. All the details on four market movers right on the other side of this break. Stay tuned. Welcome back to Overtime. Let's get to Christina Partsenevelos now with our rapid recap.

Hi, Christina. Hello. Let's start with Warner Brothers. We saw some movement today. That's after Oprah Winfrey hosted their own town hall and the new Warner Brothers Discovery CEO revealed plans for a single platform for content in multiple languages, but wouldn't answer any questions about looming layoffs due to the synergy of Warner Brothers and Discovery.

Switching gears, Peloton shares treaded in the red over 4% today. And get ready for your monthly membership bills to go up for the first time ever. But have no fear, the bikes and treads are they're dropping in price in a bid to reach new customers. Peloton is trying to turn around a recent sharp decline in its share price stock down over almost 5% today. Shares of enterprise software companies snowflake continuing to fall, possibly in the overtime, just before I checked it was. This after Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their price target to $289 from $335, but kept a buy rating.

Cloud, though, we know is facing a tough macroeconomic backdrop. And Snowflake's management did guide for slowing revenue growth. And let's end on an upbeat note. Nike was the best performer on the down. The S&P today up almost 5%. The company is, of course, getting tons of love from Wall Street after Nike executives hosted an event with analyst J.P. Morgan highlighting optimism for Nike to deliver sequential improvement in China.

There you have it, Scott. I appreciate it. I'm looking at my email right now from Peloton. They say they are updating the price. I was wondering if you had one, but I guess you just answered my question. Interesting wording. They're updating it. Thank you very much. Thanks. Christina, thank you.

That's Christina Partsenevelos. Up next, the tech report to watch next week. Stephanie Link is on deck. It's her biggest tech position. We'll find out how she is setting up into that print, whether she's worried or not. We are all awaiting Twitter's all-hands meeting after Elon Musk's bid for the company. What we're hearing from employees ahead of that crucial meeting. Overtime will be right back. Welcome back. Take a look at shares of Twitter.

There you go. They're up in overtime. Nearly 1%. That is following today's nearly 2% drop, despite news that Elon Musk made an offer for the company. He tweeted a poll in the last hour asking whether he should buy Twitter at 5420. Joining us now for reaction is halftime committee member Stephanie Link, portfolio manager and chief market strategist at Hightower. We have a lot to get through, but you were a Twitter shareholder. If you were still, how would you vote in that poll? I will. I mean, it's a hard question to answer, but I would vote for him taking over.

They do need a lot of help, Scott. You know I've owned this in the past, but it's only been like a trading kind of a stock to me in the past because they couldn't execute. They put new products together all of last year, and yet they had engagement fall. So at this point, they need a lot of help. The problem is the CEO has only been there since November. He hasn't even had a chance to make the changes. So there's so many moving parts. It's not trading on fundamentals.

But if I could get $54.20 after I have a stock at roughly $45.46, I would take the money and run. I'm kind of surprised to hear you say that, that you wouldn't say, you know what, it's undervalued. The stock was trading at north of 70 bucks, and it was around this range for a while in the last year also. I'm kind of surprised that you said that. Well, I think they have a lot to do, and I think it's going to take a very long time. And you know I am all about a restructuring story,

and I have patience more than most people. But I think there's so much in terms of competition on social. There's so many things they have to do. There's so many unanswered questions. And so if I could get 5420 and I owned it here, I would do it. You know why I know you have more patience than most, Stephanie Link? Because you own IBM. Sorry, but I had to say that. I set you up for that. Because, yes, you totally did. Right when I heard you say it, I was like, oh my God, I'm going there totally. Seriously. I mean, you I set you up for that. Because, yes, you totally did. Right when I heard you say it, I was like, oh, my God, I'm going there totally. Seriously.

I mean, you've been waiting for the turnaround. Today it got upgraded. They say, you know, overweight at Morgan Stanley. They call it a place to hide amid macro uncertainty. Well, you know, and it's interesting. Year to date, it actually has outperformed technology. It's only down 5%. I mean, only.

It's still down. But the XLK is down 15%, right? And we know technology, many stocks are down even more than that. So it has done its defensive job. We'll have to see if they can execute next week. Restructurings take time. The CEO has been there for two years. I think it's time, right? And they are restructuring the company into more of a cloud and AI kind of company, quantum computing, and even blockchain and that sort of thing. So they made a ton of acquisitions. Now it has to work, Scott. This year they have to execute and it has to work and they have to see better than expected growth. And I think they will because they've been shedding non-core assets and more of their revenues are recurring revenues in software and consulting. So they'll have better

visibility. So $35 billion in free cash flow, trades at 12 times earnings, they get a five yield. Speaking of turnarounds, Wells Fargo. Not great. See, here we go again. Kramer was darn angry about it. Kramer was angry about it. He shouldn't be. Why? I mean, they're not executing. I don't think he should be angry. They're not executing, executing. No, that's not true. That's not true. That is not true. The stock was up 61 percent last year and headed into the year to date this year. It's actually been it was flat and it's outperformed the big six banks year to date. Expectations were really high. I'm not going to tell you that the quarter was perfect.

It wasn't. It was mixed. But I think that they will benefit from net interest income going higher, net interest margins going higher. And this is all to do with the yield curve. Expenses were the biggest point on the conference call that expenses will be flat this year. They reiterated that. So if you've got revenues that actually are going higher because of higher rates, offset a little bit by fees. I know the fees are going to be weak, but I think that their expenses can stay flat. I think earnings estimates actually go higher after this earnings report, Scott. I don't know. With mortgage rates up and going up, that's not good, right? As many mortgages they originate there. That's not great news stuff. I got to I got to run. But we will continue this conversation. Stephanie Link of Hightower. Thank you so much. Up next is Santoli's last word. Today, it is all about deals and coming up on

Fast Money. What's Twitter going to look like if Elon Musk grabs the wheel there? Paki McCormick of Not Boring Capital joins the Fast team to break it all down. Overtime's back in two minutes. Michael Santoli is here for his last word. What do we have today? Well, we've been talking all day about one particular deal, as we know, and it's an idiosyncratic deal. It's a one off. It's not one that really fits with a lot of broader themes. But I do think it kind of brings up the fact that in general, M&A activity is down a lot in the first quarter, down 26, 27 percent in the U.S. from a year ago. You saw it. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs numbers advisory business was not that strong.

We know why. Right. Valuations have been very much in flux. Volatility is higher. I got global turmoil, all those things. However, you do have the ingredients for that source of positive energy into the market for still to still be there on some level and come back. You got corporate cash levels very, very high. Private equity, dry powder. We talk about that all the time. Yields are up, but the financing markets are still open. We saw that with, you know, the WarnerMedia bond deal and all the rest. So you would think that if markets stabilize, that could come back. Also, it's probably the time in the cycle when companies want to start buying some growth and being opportunistic. Yeah, I mean, you do kind of need a maverick, if you will, to maybe try and consummate a deal

in this kind of uncertain environment. Right. To be very bold about it, yes. But if it's a strategic, you know, mutual merger, fine. I could see, you know, energy. I mean, things are riding high there. That's the time to scale up. And then just really the bottom fishing in growth tech. At some point, you imagine that comes around, even though valuations probably aren't there in the zone yet. Quickly, before I let you go, we left off yesterday suggesting that the Thursday before the East Long Easter weekend is traditionally or historically good. 80 percent of the time. Today was one of the 20 percent. That's why there's a 20. Yesterday you got that lift. But no, I mean, this stuff has definitely been when it's getting it wrong, it's getting it wrong on the downside in this market recently and shows you that this sort of heavy expiration activity was not there. Even if the correlation isn't direct between tech and higher rates,

higher rates, especially in the magnitude in which they move, you know, 4%, 5% in one day, we've become conditioned to that. It's one more excuse to sell. It's going to be tough for stocks to perform well when rates are going up 5% in a day. Right. No, they've got to slow down. Bond market volatility has been very elevated relative to stock market volatility. It's definitely keeping things in check valuation-wise. Good stuff, Mike.

Thank you. All right. Good long weekend to you and holiday. All right. Up next, we're just moments away from Twitter's all-hands meeting. We are all over that action next. Welcome back to OT. Let's get the results of our Twitter question of the day.

We asked, do you want Elon Musk to take on Twitter or to buy Twitter? The majority of you say, yes, we do. Two thirds, 66 percent say yes, Elon Musk should buy Twitter. That company expected to kick off an all hands meeting with employees in about three minutes time. Let's bring in Julia Borsten with what might be at stake here, Julia. Well, I think that Parag Agarwal, who is the CEO of Twitter, who the investors don't know very well because he hasn't been CEO for that long. He hasn't done TV interviews yet. He is likely going to want to reassure employees and ask them to stay calm. The kind of joke of the day on Twitter is that this was supposed to be focus week, so-called focus week for employees at Twitter.

They had Monday off. The rest of the week was supposed to have minimal meetings so employees could focus on sort of deeper thinking, bigger picture projects. And of course, the past two weeks have just been a roller coaster with all of these Elon Musk headlines. So not much of a focus day, at least today. So I think we'll hear some questions about what they can expect. Elon Musk doesn't believe in the ad-supported model of Twitter,

and that's something that a lot of employees at Twitter are working on. There's also this question of content moderation. A lot of employees at Twitter are focused on making it a safe platform for advertisers to have their brand messages. And the fact that he wants it to be more open, less moderated. I'm sure something that employees are concerned about, you know, raising question of what their what their jobs are really about. So so how about this? So we're looking at Twitter shares, which are up four percent in in overtime here. We did our poll, OK, asking whether Twitter users wanted Musk to buy the company or not. Two thirds said yes. Stephanie Link is a former shareholder. She surprised me, frankly, with her answer that she does as well, even at the offered price.

What does that tell you about sentiment right now towards Musk buying it both from users, small group, obviously, and shareholders. It tells me that there isn't a lot of confidence in Parag Agarwal's plan, and there isn't a lot of confidence in the idea of another potential buyer coming in and being willing to pay more. I think a lot of that probably hinges on the fact that this is such a new and untested, unfamiliar CEO. And maybe this puts more pressure on him to get out there and explain what his plan is. The company laid out some very ambitious targets, both for users and for revenue. But there seem to be questions about whether they're going to be able to hit those numbers.

And I think that's what that skepticism is about. See if maybe there's another bidder out there. Who knows where all this is going to go. Julia Borson, thank you so much. We'll have those details coming up from that all-hands meeting with Twitter employees. It does it for us here on Overtime. Have a great long weekend and holiday.