Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Yields in Focus As Trump Budget Bill Advances; and Tariff Troubles for Logistics Companies 5/22/25

Episode Date: May 22, 2025

Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Nicole Webb of Wealth Enhancement Group break down the market action today and whether more pain is ahead. Earnings highlights included results from Workday, Autodesk, Deckers, Ross Stores, and Intuit. Jon sits down for the latest commentary from Intuit CEO Sasan Goodarzi. In Washington, the Trump budget bill took a major step forward—Raymond James policy analyst Ed Mills talks through the implications for investors—including winners and losers. Sean Henry, CEO of logistics firm Stord, on how companies are reshaping supply chains in a new world for global trade. 

Well, that's the end of regulation. Diageo ringing the closing bell to New York Stock Exchange. Nexon doing the honors at the Nasdaq after an earlier drop. Stocks closing well right near the flat line for the S&P and the Dow. That's as treasury yields backed off after an earlier jump. The third year yield did touch its highest level since 2023. The 10-year yield crossing 4.6 percent earlier today as well. Big Tech, the out performer, all mag seven names higher, led by Tesla and Alphabet. Housing stocks, home related names lower on those rate moves. The construction ETF on pace for its worst week since December. Lowe's and Home Depot closing in the red. Two big IPOs today though, both popping. Hinge Health, that was up after pricing at $32. A share finished at 37 and change and Mountain also finishing higher after pricing at thirty two dollars a share. It finished at thirty seven and change and Mountain also finishing higher

after pricing at sixteen dollars a share. Solar stocks. Those were crushed today as the new spending bill will cut incentives for the industry sooner than expected. Sun run down a whopping 40 percent. Now that's the scorecard on Wall Street where but we're here where winners stay late. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I am John Fort back with Morgan Brennan. And we're about to get a flurry of earnings reports on the retail side, Ross stores and

deckers on the software side, Workday Autodesk. And we do have the numbers from Intuit. Let me give those to you right now. For fiscal Q3, Intuit delivered results at beat on the top and bottom lines. Revenue was 7.75 billion versus 7.56 billion expected. Non-GAAP EPS, $11.65 versus $10.91 consensus. Now for Q4, the guide, Intuit guiding above expectations, 3.72 billion to 3.76 billion is the range

versus 3.51 expected, non-GAAP EPS, 2.63 to two, sorry, $2.63 to $2.68 versus 2.59 expected. Now looking through this report, overall growth was strong, but credit karma in particular was a standout. TurboTax Live also doing quite well in the tax quarter and we are going to hear from Intuit CEO Sasan Gidarzi before he talks to analysts on the conference call in just a couple minutes. Coming up he's going to break down those numbers in an exclusive interview and of course

the call starts just at 430 in the middle of show. Yeah in the meantime though let's turn to the markets more broadly the major averages did close off the lows and as that geeking out gains after yesterday's big sell-off as yields came off session highs inflation fears though rising deficits higher rates those are still lurking as potential headwinds for these markets so how should investors position in this environment? Well, joining us now is vital knowledge founder Adam Chrisafouli and Wealth Enhancement Group Senior Vice President Nicole Webb.

It's great to have you both here, Adam. I'm going to kick this off with you because we have seen this backup on bond deals. And even though it took a breather this afternoon, bond market is the big story. What's driving it? Yeah, I mean, I think there are a few factors, two big ones in particular, one of which is just what's happening with fiscal policy. You had the reconciliation bill

passed in the house this morning. It's gonna be very accretive to the debt and deficit at a time when both those numbers are already quite unbalanced. That's one big component of the fear. And the other one is anxiety around tariffs driving inflation higher. We saw in the flash PMIs today for the month of May, very hot inflation numbers. You continue to read about

companies pushing through price heights. Now there are some offsets. You know, oil is going to be a big offset. We had OPEC potentially pushing through another big hike. And then housing could be a disinflationary offset as well. But I think it's the twin concerns of inflation and deficit that's really pushing yields higher and creating a headwind for equities. Yeah, and of course we're seeing global yields move higher as well. Japan, been a huge story and driver of the global action as well. We've got our second earnings report to bring you. Ross Stores earnings are out.

Courtney Reagan has those numbers. Hi, Court. Hi, Morgan. So stronger than expected quarter for Ross Stores. They're reporting $1.47. This group is looking for 144 revenues at $4.98 billion. The expectations were for $4.97 billion. So let's call that in line.

And when it comes to our same store sales, they were flat, but better than expected. The street was looking for that number to fall 0.9%. There is a note that the company does expect pressure on profitability if tariffs remain at elevated levels. And in their quarter two guidance, four earnings per share of $1.40 to $1.55, that's below the street's expectations of $1.65.

They do note an 11 to 16 cent tariff impact. So I think that is important, an important note there. And then they are looking for sales to be flat to up 3% for the second quarter. Shares here of Ross down almost 9% in immediate reaction back over to you Wow big move Courtney Reagan, thank you. Thanks Nicole want to get your thoughts right now Whether it is on some of these consumer facing stocks like a Ross stores or also just more broadly what we are seeing With this market amid the tax

Environment the tariff environment yields and the bond market as we were just talking about with Adam What's interesting to me is you say, it is a good environment for equity investors, why? Yeah, you know, I wanna piggyback a little bit on what Adam kicked off with, which is the context around yields this year are everything. And we've had a lot of volatility in rate movement and the context around why.

And so for the moment being, while we're still very constructive on equities for this year, we actually think it's a better equity environment than bond environment. We can't really sustainably go higher without clarity on tariffs, taxes, yields. However, we do think if we get more of a push on the tenure, and it does go higher, which we start to see break down some of the run-up we've seen in equities. We think those buyers show up again on the back of economic strength,

some of what we've seen in disinflation themes and then earnings growth potential, specifically still in those magnificent names that continue to lead on both margin and earnings growth. Adam, it's interesting, we see Intuit moving higher right now about 5% at the moment in overtime. It's a company, most of its customers are in the services business, when you come to the small and medium sized businesses versus being so connected to manufacturing.

The guide, stronger than expected here, I wonder, given the earnings season that we expected back in early April and the one that we've gotten, a lot more guidance perhaps. Are investors able to perhaps have a little bit more, at least with some businesses, certainty around what's coming? No, absolutely. I think, you know, rings have been the biggest positive for this market now for the last several weeks.

The March end season was quite healthy, you know, definitely versus expectations. And then the April end season is turning healthy, definitely versus expectations. And the April end season is turning out to be pretty healthy as well. There's really only been one major blowup in Target and most other companies, and the Ross guidance is a little weak too, but most other companies, they're acknowledging the uncertainty, they're acknowledging a lot of the risk factors on the horizon, but they're managing through it, they're implementing a variety of different strategies to help mitigate some of the effects of average price hikes, cost cutting, et cetera.

So corporate America has definitely been a big bright spot, and they're managing through this environment quite well. Nicola, assuming this budget bill gets passed in something close to its current form, is it a positive or a negative in the medium term for markets in the sense that there's been the talk about tax cuts locking those in being great but now we've also got the the yield picture and concerns about the impact in the longer term on the deficit. Yeah I think this is one of these unique circumstances where you almost have to

break policy apart from the the strength we're seeing at the enterprise level especially specific to our large cap companies. When we think about there being so much momentum in sectors like healthcare, industrials, financials, and then you put that in combination with the strength we see and the confirmation of continued capex spending, that bodes well for equity investors

in a risk on environment. On the other hand hand the thing that we can walk away with was knowing the tax cuts in jobs acts extension. And that holding up for the consumer you know versus- reverting back to some of those previous tax rates and

we are fairly dependent on the consumer especially in face of what we've gone through from a resetting of prices so if tariffs have a way of acting more as a consumption based tax meaning hitting only those higher end consumers we know face of what we've gone through from a resetting of prices. So if tariffs have a way of acting more as a consumption based tax, meaning hitting only those higher end consumers we know are pretty flush with cash still, we actually think this could flatten itself out, but more

to come I think as we see what passes on the Senate floor. Adam Morgan Stanley earlier this week turning bullish on most major U.S. assets, upgrading its stance on stocks and treasuries to overweight, raising some eyebrows in the process, really a buy America call. Do you buy in? I think for equities right now, the market's very extended just because you have, I think there's a lot of complacency

around the effects of tariffs and the effects of fiscal policy. And there's just really very little wiggle room in valuations right now. So we closed it about 22 plus times on this year's consensus. If you go to 2026, you're a little bit under 20 times. So there's not a lot of valuation expansion potential, and you still have these big macro risks working on the horizon, most significant of which is the movement in yields and just

the effects on inflation from tariffs. So it'll be a very interesting summer. It looks like a lot of the pre-tariff inventory will be exhausted come June or July, and you could start to see some price hikes really start to show up in the data. And I think that will be a real test for how the markets behave.

Nicole, with bonds looking so bad, how do you play defense here? No, I think one of the other ways to think about yields in a more global context is to think about the impact to the US dollar. And so far, we've seen some of that price pressure on the US dollar bode well for diversification. So when we think about our clients, you know, every time you think about the 10-year pushing 5%, it becomes a great buying opportunity for reinvestment back into the likes of treasuries and so we

expect to start seeing flows in that direction. And then when you think about moving outside the U. S. I think that's where you're still seeing that just good valuations but again if you think there will continue to be pressure. On the U. S.

dollar and so there's a lot of opportunity here for both offense and defense and I think it's one of those moments in time where you really can be very specific about what you're purchasing and when you're purchasing it. Adam, with Bitcoin at record highs, is that offense or defense? I mean, it's hard to say. It's hard to say.

It is kind of just trading along with the rest of Keck. We've had a big move higher in tech the last few weeks. Does it reflect macro anxiety? You know, gold has had a very large run and came up a little bit today. So there's a variety of different lenses you could look at Bitcoin through. I kind of view it right now as just, you know, a barometer or risk appetite and with move higher in tech. This is kind of just moving in sympathy with that.

All right. Adam, Nicole, thanks to you both. Coming up, we just got Intuit's earnings report. That stock is up more than 5% right now and over time. Up next, we're gonna hear from the CEO ahead of the company's conference call. And we will check on crypto again as Bitcoin. We just mentioned it hits another all-time high. We're gonna dig a little deeper into that.

Overtime is back in two. Welcome back. We have more earnings to bring you. Autodesk and Workday both moving in opposite directions Bertha Coombe has the numbers Bertha. Hey Morgan let's start with Autodesk a beat on both the top and the bottom line earnings coming in at $2.29 versus the adjusted expectation for $2.15 per share revenues at $1. billion, a bit above the $1.61 billion expectation. As far as guidance, it is guiding higher, $244 to $248, compared to a $234 estimate. Also guiding

higher in terms of revenue guidance above expectations. Its operating margin, non-GAAP operating margin, came in at 37%. The street was looking for 35.6%. Andrew Anagnost, the CEO, talked about the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty out there, but apparently it is not impacting them as far as what they're seeing going forward. Worthday, on the other hand, also beating on the top and bottom line, there but apparently it is not impacting them as far as what they're seeing going forward. Workday on the other hand also beating on the top and bottom line coming in at $2.24 billion in terms of revenue. The street have been looking for about $2.22 billion beating much more on the bottom line $2.23 per share compared to $2.01 as the expectation.

They are reaffirming guidance. The street might've been looking for them to boost as far as their subscription revenue for the first quarter came in more or less in line. And their outlook for subscription revenue for the second quarter, 2.16 billion, exactly in line with what the street was looking for. Their operating margin did beat for this quarter at 30.2% and they're looking

for an operating margin slightly ahead of expectation in the second quarter overall. But it looks like the stock is falling from what I can tell. It looks like they have cut their capex at least from what they were expected. We'll take a look at the release once again. But as you can see, Workday, they're down about 5%, 5.5% back over here. Ibertha, thank you. Uggmaker Deckers Outdoor results are out, the stock's down 11%.

Courtney Reagan, why? Yeah, John, I think this one has to do with the soft first quarter guidance. But for the actual quarter that they're reporting, which is their fiscal fourth quarter, they did beat expectations. They're actually putting up earnings per share of $1. The street had only been looking there for 60 cents, so that's a big beat. Revenues just slightly ahead at 1.02 billion. The street was looking for just over 1 billion there. First

quarter sales expectations in a range of $890 to $910 million. The street was looking for 9.26. So that's a decent miss there. And the first quarter earnings expectation range is 62 cents to 67 cents. And the street was looking for that to fall at the 80 cent mark. There are a couple other notes I wanna call out to you.

They're increasing their stock buyback program by 2.25 billion. And they are getting a new board chair, Cynthia Davis, who has been a member of the board since 2018 will replace current chair Mike Devine III, who is retiring after about 14 years. And it does also look like the Hoka brand that has sort of been their stronger brand as of late

when you're talking about brand acceleration. And that did disappoint those sales for the quarter, increased 10%, but that fell below expectations for what was hoped for for Decker. So shares down now about 10.5%. Brian, John and Morgan, back over to you. Okay. Courtney and Reagan, thank you.

Well, Bitcoin's bull run continuing today, setting another all-time high above 110,000 for the first time. Actually hit 111,000 and counting. It comes on the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day. Now the first recorded transaction using Bitcoin, 10,000 Bitcoin for two pizzas are about, in today's price, $1.1 billion. Now if you thought the S&P's 16% gain

from the April lows was impressive, Bitcoin is at more than 40% over the same time period. And the crypto related stocks rising as well. Strategy up 40% since the beginning of April. The company today saying it will raise another $2.1 billion by selling stock and buying Bitcoin with the proceeds. They've been doing a lot of this. Strategy now has 576,000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

That's worth nearly $64 billion. Other crypto-related names, including Coinbase, Robinhood, and Block also rising today. What a ride. Well, Intuit beating on the top and bottom lines for Q3, guiding higher in Q4. I spoke with CEO Sasan Gidazi this afternoon about the quarter.

He emphasized overall growth and credit karma's search. First of all this is the fastest- in organic growth- I should say organic growth- John that we have had in over a decade so growing at fifteen percent. Not just for the quarter but also- we guided up to fifteen percent growth

for the year- we expanded our margins of full points or at forty percent margins is just a spectacular across the board, the business group performance. Taxes back in double digits, which is amazing and credit karma had strong growth. So it's really incredible growth across the platform and we're super excited. We're taking share across credit cards, loans, insurance really contributed quite nicely. We provided this year overall

across our consumer platform early access to over $12 billion in refunds and credit karma contributed to over a point of growth in the TurboTax business. So like across the board based on all of our innovation we're delivering for our customers.

And I would say probably over 60%, 70% of the results is all execution and 30% is macro. So we're really pleased with the progress. You said AI played a role behind the scenes in Intuit's execution. I asked him how much more growth upside AI would deliver in the coming quarters as the technology improves.

Although we've been at this for six years, it's like a bamboo tree, which, you know, takes years to grow roots underground and then within six weeks it, you know, grows really fast. That's sort of where we are. And I just think it's the beginning of what's possible. And I think we will be in a world that's unrecognizable, frankly, a couple of years from now, not just 10 years from now, because of not only the experiences that you and I will be able to enjoy, but also just how productive our employees will become. Tax season ended last month and Intuit's TurboTax is a major property. Technology that puts human professionals into the flow is delivering upside now. We had absolutely breakthrough adoption this year.

Our TurboTax Live, where in essence you can get access to an expert to help you get your taxes done, or an expert will do everything for you from soup to nuts. It actually grew 24% from on the customer front and 47% on the revenue front. It's actually now 40% of the entire franchise of TurboTax. But to get to your question, you know, it's the essence of delivering on better experiences,

lower prices than anybody else in the assisted segment, and early access to money. That's really what drove the breakthrough adoption. Finally, I asked him about his confident guide, given macro conditions. He said only about 30% of Intuit's small business customers are connected to manufacturing. When you look at the businesses

that we serve, for the most part they're service-based businesses and they don't get impacted by tariffs. With all that said, tariffs is on everybody's mind, right? Enterprises are thinking about what are the implications, how

do we lead through it? Businesses are, consumers are, but we see pretty far down the line of our business performance thinking about what are the implications how do we lead through it businesses are consumers are. But we see pretty far down the line of our business performance because over 80 percent is subscription based and reoccurring. So we have confidence as we look ahead. Stock now up more than nine percent here in overtime. I think these would be all time highs. That's a huge move for Intuit. Well coming up, Mega Cap Tech stocks, the market leaders today, speaking of tech. Amazon higher by 2% as Bill Ackman's Pershing Square says it added a new position in April. The firm saying it doesn't think tariffs will have a big hit to earnings.

And praising Andy Jassy saying he's doing an incredible job. We're going to tell you which stocks investors were selling today as big tech Gets a big bid and Mike Santoli is gonna tell us why small caps have more than just a little problem as the Russell 2000 continues to underperform the major averages. We'll be right back Welcome back to overtime money went into tech stocks today came out of defensive names, especially into tech stocks today came out of defensive names, especially food stocks, Conagra, Campbell Soup, General, Mills, Kraft Heinz, all at levels they haven't seen

since the pandemic lows or before. That's five years plus and all those names significantly off their recent highs. Morgan. Well, let's turn to small caps because they're down 3% this week on track to break a six week win streak. But the underperformance in small caps goes back much further.

Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joins us now with more. We'll call it another history lesson, Mike. It might feel like forever. It's not quite that long. Yeah, actually, Russell 2000 down like 8% year to date. The S&P is around flat. This has been a persistent issue. So you see, this is the relative performance of the Russell 2000

to the S&P 500 It's basically near the depths of the late 90s That was the last time you had such dominance by the largest companies and basically neglect of the smallest ones this low point Right there first quarter 1999. It was a year before the overall market peak I want to focus in though on the 10 years or so after that bottom in small caps where it looks like it was a true renaissance for smaller stocks. Well let's see what it looks like in real index level terms when it comes to Russell 2000 against the S&P 500 starting at that bottom of small cap relative performance.

What you see here is for the first four years of it we were in a bear market in general and all Russell did is kind of hold its value. And then it kind of resumed a little bit of an advantage over the mid-2000s, of course. Then the global financial crisis came, and the Russell was dead money over a decade. Worse than that for the S&P 500. My point here is that usually the shifts from large to small, from high quality to low quality, don't necessarily happen in this sort of on the run, baton pass, when the bull market is underway.

It usually takes a little bit of a disjunction, something else to happen, whether it's going to be something that brings rates down or changes the views of the overall economy. That seems to be what's necessary. So it's kind of a be careful what you wish for if you're looking for small caps to rip higher from here on a relative basis. So if we stay with the late 1990s, are there other similarities to this time period we're currently in? Well, for sure. I mean, it was probably a more extreme version of it then. But yes, you had a very concentrated market and a handful of very large growth stocks. It's even more concentrated right now. And there really was just this sense out there that the traditional value investing principles didn't really work. Yeah you had new IPOs coming out but they were kind of littering the lower levels of the market cap spectrum in the late 90s and so it's creating a lot of junkie stocks. So there's some similarities although right now I don't think it's quite as stark as different except for the concentration point here where we do have, you know,

seven companies that are almost a third of the S&P 500. All right. Mike Santoli, thank you. Well, now it's time for a CNBC News Update with Pippa Stevens. Pippa? Hey, John, officials confirm at least two people who were on board a small plane are dead after it crashed into a San Diego military housing neighborhood early this morning. The San Diego Police Department said eight others were injured and added all of the fatalities were on the plane, which could have carried eight to 10 people, including the pilot. Officials are still unsure of how many people were in the plane and of the identities of

the two confirmed dead. The Federal Trade Commission confirming to CNBC Today that its investigating advocacy group Media Matters for allegedly helping advertisers coordinate a boycott of X after Elon Musk purchased the social media platform in 2022. Media Matters has denied the allegations and sued X, accusing it of abusive and costly lawsuits meant to punish the group. And the Trump administration is considering withdrawing roughly 4,500 troops from South Korea and moving them to other locations in the Pacific, including Guam.

The Wall Street Journal reporting the idea is being readied for President Trump's consideration as part of a policy review on dealing with North Korea. The Pentagon did not comment. Morgan, back to you. All right. Wanted to watch. comment. Morgan, back to you. All right. Want to watch Pippa Stevens. Thank you. Coming up, President Trump's so-called big, beautiful bill passing through the House and

heading to the Senate now. The impact is being felt in the stock market. Solar stocks punished as the bill phases out tax credits. We're going to break down the bill and what it means for investors. Plus, advanced auto parts soaring following its results of 50 percent today. So coming up, Mike Santoli on why we could be seeing more moves like this one. Welcome back to overtime. Stocks sold off late in the session. The Dow and S&P 500 closed lower, but only fractionally. The Nasdaq was the strongest performer today, but also well off its highs of the

day. We did see a pullback in bond yields. The 10-year now at 4.5 percent. The NASDAQ was the strongest performer today, but also well off its highs of the day. We did see a pullback in bond yields, the 10-year now at 4.5%, the 30-year still above five, but off those highs, it last hit back in October of 2023. Apple continuing its losing streak, now seven straight days down, as concerns mount about the company's ability to innovate in AI.

And let's also get a check on the overtime moves in the two retail stocks that reported at the top of this hour. Ross stores and Deckers, both down big. Deckers beat on earnings, but said it won't be giving guidance for 2026 due to uncertainty related to global trade. Ross stores also withdrawing its outlook

for the year due to tariffs. And you can see Ross stores down about 9% and Decker's down 14%. Raw stores in particular, John, interesting given the fact that this is one of those discounters we should say off price retailers and they are seen as winners in this environment. Yeah, big moves for them. Also an example, the type of company that Intuit CEO says they don't have as

customers in the services business, giving them more visibility. Well, House Republicans advanced the multi-trillion dollar tax and spending package earlier today after two months of crafting the bill. The legislation now advances to the Senate. So what does this bill mean for investors? What areas of the market could see the biggest impact? Joining us now is Ed Mills,

Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst. Ed, who particularly wins here and how much of it is in the drill baby drill arena or other areas that we've heard the president talking quite a bit about? Yeah, so John, what you referenced there, there's a provision in here that if you want to get a permit as a fossil fuel company, you can pay 1% of the capex and it's going to come to you in 60 days. So that's a winner. I think that defense is going to be a winner here because there's going to be as much as $300 billion appropriated over the next couple of years for the Department of Defense in immigration.

You look at private student loan providers, they're going to be a winner because there is a pullback in what the government's going to do. I look at restaurants, no tax on TIBS. That's going to draw a lot new talent into the restaurant industry because it goes up to $160,000. So I do think there's a lot of concern in the market about how much of a stimulus this is going to be, how much it adds to the deficit, but always also focus on the fact that there's going to be a lot of winners in this bill. Ed, I wonder to what degree education, you mentioned private student loans, could be a discussion point or even a flash point in the Senate given not only the pullback and government assistance there, but also this endowment tax.

That's a part of this. It's going to hit some educational institutions that might surprise some people. And then this new tax shelter around vouchers and the ability to get a 100 percent tax credit contributing to those. We don't talk about that so much, but to what degree do you expect that to be controversial? Yeah, John, I do think that when I look at what the Senate's going to do, it's going to make changes, and there's going to be material changes. I think where I'm going to see the most change is some of the provisions related

to the Inflation Reduction Act. There are massive additions to this bill that really cut back on the IRA in the Manager's Amendment in the last 24 hours. I don't think those pass in the Senate. I do highlight to a lot of clients here at Raymond James, the calculations that they're going for for the college endowments seem punitive. This seems like a fight against Harvard,

something that the president has absolutely taken on. I do think that calculation change, that 21% tax, that has a chance of coming down. I'm not sure if there's going to be massive changes to the way in which the student loan provisions are structured because a lot of Republicans look back to 2010 and the student loan programs were largely nationalized in a different reconciliation bill. And there's a feeling in DC that that has contributed to so much inflation among college costs and a really big impact to the federal government's budget. So those absolutely stage on. So Ed, let me make sure I got this right. Next step, this bill goes to the Senate. It gets

worked through by the senators. If there's changes, it then goes back to the House. Lawmakers from both houses work through this to then pass the final version of this bill. The bond market is definitely gyrating right now because the expectation is you're going to see more spending, whatever happens in the Senate expectation is you're gonna see more spending, whatever happens in the Senate, you're gonna see more spending, you're gonna see fewer cuts, and that's gonna mean more treasury issuance.

The flip side of this is that potentially you could also see a stimulative aspect to this for consumers and businesses because of some of these things you've laid out. Which one matters more and how much hinges on the Senate? So, Morgan, the way we've talked about this at Raymond James is May was for the House, June is for the Senate, July is to work out those differences, and August is to get this to President Trump's desk. The binding constraint here is we need to lift the debt limit. And when you talk about the bond market, I think that they have included the debt limit in this because they

didn't want to raise the debt limit, have a negative bond market reaction, and then not be able to do as much as they wanted to do. When I look at this bill, Morgan, this is the most expensive bill by dollar amount in the history of the United States, potentially by a multiple of two or three times. The stimulative parts of this bill are front-end loaded. In the House bill, a lot of these provisions end on December 31st, 2028. I don't think I can find a single person in D.C. that think they will actually end on December 31st, 2028.

And so a trillion dollar provision over three years, you might actually have to score it as three, four, or more trillion dollars over 10 years when you might actually have to score it as three, four or more trillion dollars over 10 years when you factor in inflation. So this bill, the total dollar amount, I don't know exactly what that truly will be over the next 10 years. The bond market might be the only thing that can get the Senate to peer it back.

But when I polled investors at Raymond James here today, only 40% said a negative bond market reaction is going to stop the Senate from peering back what has already passed the House Morgan. Wow, that's an interesting stat in of itself. Ed Mills, thank you. Thank you. Up next, the CEO of a unicorn logistics startup you may not have heard of, but need to have on your radar on the huge pull forward of inventory that he's seeing because of President Trump's tariffs. And an epic battle is heating up between Disney and CNBC parent company Comcast, which just

opened a new $7 billion Universal theme park in Florida. What this battle could mean for the bottom lines of both companies later on overtime. Welcome back. Companies are scrambling to address global supply chains upended by tariffs. Businesses across a slew of sectors have had to adjust, reroute, or even cancel shipments. Our next guest co-founded a startup that aims to help

companies navigate logistics and deliver products to consumers. This is a service that has seen demand soar in uncertain times. Stored recently raised $200 million at a $1.5 billion valuation and acquired a UPS subsidiary, further increasing its national footprint. Joining us here on set is Sean Henry,

Stored co-founder and CEO. Sean, welcome. It's great to have you here. And I want to start right there because uncertainty for the supply chain has meant certainty for demand for the types of services that you offer. What are you seeing right now?

Absolutely, well, the last few years has brought a lot of uncertainty to brands from the pandemic, to wars, to strikes across Canada Post, UPS, and other domestic last mile parcel providers, rising Facebook ad costs and more. And so e-commerce brands have just faced so much change that the one promise they have is that change is constant. And so when there's a platform like Store,

that's really a commerce enablement platform, leveling the playing field with Prime, we give them flexibility to be nimble across the network where they have to move their inventory to meet consumer demands, but also not to have to do it on their own. We combine almost $10 billion in commerce and translate those economies of scale

down to each of these independent brands so that they can combat disruptions as part of one broader network rather than as a standalone business. Yeah, and you're doing fast delivery for a lot of what I will call the upstart fast growing private consumer brands, direct to consumer brands as well.

So just in terms of the conversations and the dynamics and what you're seeing across some of those customers with what is a rapidly evolving tariff environment. Absolutely, we support today's leading blue chip brands. You can think of our customers as the brands like the Athletic Greens and Natives and Tulas and Proactives of the world. These are great companies

that are leaders of their category and they want that best in class consumer experience. And companies of all sizes are being subject to these changes and what they ultimately have to do is be able to move rapidly, whether that's reshoring their manufacturing, moving their fulfillment infrastructure. The biggest change we've seen over the last few months

has been since the Mexican president signed away a lot of the import benefits for enabling the de minimis and section 321 fulfillment and IMEX coming into the U.S. And so all of a sudden there's been no reason to hold your inventory internationally in Mexico and Canada and Europe and China and have these long slow shipments coming into the U.S. Which were almost $75 billion of commerce avoided to import taxes last year by being shipped internationally. And so that's been the boon coming in. This tariff shock right now reminds me a bit

of the pandemic and I wonder what are the overbuilds or overinvestments happening now in the first half of this year in reaction to some of these moves that operators and maybe investors are gonna have to digest and pay for later. Absolutely. Stored ourselves grew about 10x just in one year at the start of COVID because you had

to build up so much inventory to try to avoid all these disruptions. And you're seeing a similar pattern right now where there's essentially been an artificial bump in April between consumers trying to spend in advance and saying, well, maybe I'll buy this product before the price goes up. And we got a lot of questions about, OK, are you seeing pressure in the consumer? You seeing less spending? We actually saw more spending over the last month or two because they're trying to avoid what's coming and for brands, it's an inventory buildup. And what we saw during the pandemic,

there's some famous stories of ordering far too much inventory and then getting into a challenge afterwards when you can't actually sell it all through and liquidate it. And I think that is maybe what brands are worried about right now. They're all pulling forward inventory, trying to bring it in before August and some of these other tariffs now take effect

after this new 90 day pause. And if it's a predictable product, you're a few skew business and you have a lot of demand and you're just building up one or two months ahead, you're probably okay. But if you're a large retailer and you have thousands and thousands of skews in your network and you're trying to build up months or quarters in advance, that's where the biggest fears and the biggest shocks are. And frankly, there's really no demand planning system, algorithms or more that can help you. It's more of an art than a science. All right. Sean Henry with some real time insights and what we're seeing in terms of supply chain and inventory builds, the co-founder and CEO of Stored. Thanks for being here on set.

Thank you for having me. Up next, Mike Santoli looks at why today's big rallies and advanced auto parts and urban outfitters could be evidence of an emerging tailwind for the recent market rally. And Epic Universe, it's now officially open in Orlando. Could the new Universal theme park steal some of Disney's magic?

We are going to discuss. Welcome back to Overtime. Shares of Williams-Sonoma under pressure today. The retailer with brands like Pottery Barn and Wells at West Elm reporting better than expected first quarter earnings, reiterating full year guidance but investors getting spooked by a drop in gross margins and those shares finishing down 4.5% John.

Okay, well let's stay on retail, shares of Urban Outfitters and Advanced Auto Parts soaring after reporting results but the move might have less to do with earnings, more to do with the return of some short selling in the market. Let's head back to Mike Santoli at the New York Stock Exchange. Mike.

Yeah, well, the earnings and the guidance certainly catalyst, but the context is, yes, these were two heavily shorted stocks. So take a look at the overall short interest picture. This is from Goldman Sachs' hedge fund monitor. This is the average short interest, that's a percentage of market cap for the median stock in the S&P 500. It's up to about 2.5%,

which is not high over the long span of history here. This goes back 30 years, but it's very high relative to where we've been in recent years. That pandemic market just purged a lot of the short base out of this market. So it does mean at least it's a potential source of incremental buying under the right

conditions here's hedge fund positioning in general which has got this interesting contrast between the overall exposures long plus short exposure that's gross exposure very very high but that's because you actually have very low net exposure which means there's a lot of short positions offsetting a lot of the long positions. And again, this is something that some folks are pointing to as potentially a source of incremental buying, assuming the rally can stand decent footing and we have relatively lower volatility in this period. Take a look at the five day charts though of advanced auto parts and urban outfares. And I want to point out the shorts have been right on these.

I mean, advance been a massive underperformer in particular relative to the other auto parts stores but this is what happens when you have a reversal in the market in general or a little bit of a spark in terms of less bad than expected news you are gonna get a spring-loaded response to the upside guys all right Mike Santoli thank you it was an epic opening today for Universal's seven billion dollar epic universe theme park in Orlando. Up next, what this means for the Sunshine State Showdown with Disney. And do not forget, you can catch us on the go by following the Closing Bell Overtime

podcast on your favorite podcast app. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. The theme park battle between Disney and Comcast is heating up with today's opening of Universal's Epic Universe. An estimated $7 billion investment. Julia Borsten is here on set. Joins us now with more.

Julia. It is great to be here. Well, Morgan and John insiders are telling me that the media giants parks divisions are more important than ever. They will be a larger part of Comcast once it spins off Versant, which includes CNBC, and Disney draws about 60 percent of its operating income from its parks division. Epic Universe with Harry Potter and Nintendo World's doubling its Orlando footprint. Or executives say demand has been strong and they are hopeful that tourists will now start to travel to Epic as a main destination rather than treating universal as a day or two add

on to an existing Disney trip. Now Disney has historically dominated its Florida in Orlando as Florida parks drew around 50 million attendees in 2023 compared to universals roughly 20 million attendees that year. So now the question is how epic universe will impact Disney. Analysts warn of a potential negative impact near term after Disney saw a slight dip in attendance in 2010 when Universal's Harry Potter land opened, but they say that long term Epic could actually benefit Disney. Disney parks chairman Josh Demaro is bullish saying quote, if something is built new in central Florida like Epic Universe, that new tourist coming into the market is going to have to visit the Magic Kingdom. One issue looming over both Disney World and Epic Universe concerns

about a potential economic downturn, how that impacts consumer spending. I gotta tell you, every year from her birthday I bring my daughter to Universal Studios. She is chomping at the bit for this and I still not brought the family to Magic Kingdom. So maybe I'm like the outlier here. But what I am curious about is if you have consumers that are with falling confidence and tightening belts with prices high for amusement parks, is this really a zero sum game? Well, I think it's too soon to tell right now. They're saying it's not a zero sum game. I think what the analysts are saying is that near term,

it could be a zero sum game, but longterm they do expect the market to to grow and a lot of people go to Orlando and don't do what you do They say okay, we're gonna go to Disney for a couple days Maybe go to Universal for one day now Maybe they'll go to Universal for two days or three days And I do think that what's different is that every time there's a new attraction built and this is true across the board It's much more high-tech. Well, that's the game though, isn't it? Is share of wallet. I mean people, people are strapped. They can't afford like extra days.

So it's a question of how you're going to allocate them and whose hotel you're going to stay in. But what Disney and Universal are both hoping is that they can make the experience so worthwhile that people say, I'll come back and spend this money next year. The price hikes were worth it. And so far these companies are bullish on their investments paying off. This was an over $7 billion investment to double the footprint of the Orlando park. All right.

Julia Borsten, thank you. Good to have you here. Well, the wild week of earnings comes to a close tomorrow with results from defense contractor Booz Allen-Hamilton and retailer Buckle. And on the economic front, we're going to get the April new home sales report. And it's happened during a wild week, Morgan, not just for the markets overall with what's been happening with yields, but then also Washington's influence, right? What's going to be in this bill?

How much is it going to move forward? We got some movement on that today. Yeah, we've had a very big, heavy week for FedSpeakak as well and we get more of it with three more Fed officials tomorrow. So far the takeaway there has been no recession on the horizon but also no reason to cut rates. So add that to the wall of worry that this stock market continues to climb right now even as we did see the Dow and the S&P finish fractionally lower. Bifurcation in the results in overtime with some of those retailer names lower into it. Now still up about 8% as that conference call continues.

Yeah, the tech trade continues here. So does Bitcoin at a record high. That's gonna do it for us here at overtime.