Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Snap-Back Trade 12/26/24

Episode Date: December 26, 2024

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Sarah Eisen, in for Scott Wapner, live at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. This make-or-break hour begins with the setup for stocks as we charge toward the new year. Here's a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. After strong back-to-back gains to start the holiday week, stocks are hugging the flatline today. Thin holiday trading. Today's data, jobless claims coming in below expectations. That was good news. However, continuing claims hitting its highest level in three years. We're going to discuss what that

cooling labor market is signaling about the strength of the overall economy, what it might mean for the Fed. Former Deputy Treasury Secretary and Evercore founder and senior chairman Roger Altman is with me to discuss. Taking a look at yields continuing to grind higher. The 10-year back above 4.6 earlier in the session, pulled a little bit back. Its highest level since May and near the highs going back to 2022. That takes us to our talk of the tape. With the fate of the Santa Claus rally hanging in the balance, what's in store for stocks heading into 2025? Let's ask our panel.

New Edge Wealth's Cameron Dawson, Wealth Enhancement Group's Ayako Yoshioka, and BMO's Yang Yu Ma. Welcome to all of you. Cameron, the 10-year yield, is that a headwind for stocks? It certainly should be, given the fact that stocks are trading at 22.3 times forward earnings. But we're not certain if the 10-year can continue this momentum higher simply because it's diverging from economic surprises so much. So economic data has been coming in a little bit weaker than expected, like those continuing claims, but 10-year treasury yields keep pressing higher. Eventually, that gap will close, meaning that either data has to come in better to support these higher yields or yields will fall. So maybe stocks can

get a little bit of a breather as we get into 2025 if yields start to turn lower. Yang Yu, do you subscribe to the seasonal stuff? We are in the middle of this Santa Claus rally. Again, we're a little bit higher today, I guess higher since Tuesday. Final five trading days of the year plus two into the new year, which will tell us, I guess, the whole fate of the rest of the year. Is that true? Next year. Thanks, Derek. Great to be here. I do think there's some reality behind some of the seasonal tendencies that play out, but it's important to remember these are just tendencies. These are not deterministic. If you take a multi-year, you know, looking back decades, you can see some changes in the averages over certain periods, certain months surrounding certain holidays.

But you really don't want to hang your hat on that. You really want to look at what are the catalysts at any given time? What are the dynamics that are taking place in the market? And we think there's more likely to be a bit of a dose of caution running up into the inauguration. So we don't think there's a major reason for a significant pullback here, but we don't see the catalyst playing out for a few more weeks still. So you both kind of sound a little cautious. Aya, where are you right now watching seasonals, watching yields and what you think it means for stocks for the rest of the year into next year? Sure. Thanks, Sarah. So, you know, for positioning

wise, I think, you know, as we look into 2025, everybody's looking into January and how things might change relative to how things have been so far in December and all of 2024. And typically, you get a little bit of a reversal in January. And so we might see some of that. And I think it would be healthy for markets to have a little bit of a pullback in January. You so we might see some of that. And I think it would be healthy for markets to have a little bit of a pullback in January. You do start to get some of those dogs of the Dow to start work in January. So we might start to see that in 2025. I mean, the divergence, I feel like we can't talk about the market heading into the end of the year without the divergence, which has only gotten more intense in December between the magnificent seven large cap stocks, Cameron, and the end of the year without the divergence, which has only gotten more intense in December between the Magnificent Seven large cap stocks, Cameron, and the rest of the market,

which everyone had hoped for, the broadening out trend. It's not playing out that way in December. And I do wonder which way it goes in the new year. Yeah, so much for that broadening out, because in the last month alone, you've seen the MAG7 up 13%, and the average stock, the equal weight index, is down nearly 5%. So almost a 20% divergence in just the last month, which we don't think is sustainable, but a lot of it can be explained by earnings. Earnings for the MAG7 are one of the few places in this market that you're actually seeing earnings revisions move higher. They're up 6% in the last month, which just suggests that

the rest of the market is seeing earnings deterioration, at least in the forecast. So in order for the average stock or the broadening out for the market to actually deliver, we think you have to see better earnings revisions from that part of the market. And we're just simply not seeing yet, which speaks to this narrowness. But do you think we'll see it? I mean, is it time to rotate? We think that at least we'll get a snapback trade at the beginning of the year, just saying that it's likely that given the fact that things like momentum and beta are all in the 95th to 99th percentile of outperformance, that those things don't persist forever. So we do think that you'll

get a value, a kind of dogs of the Dow snapback, at least for a couple of weeks. But then we get into earnings season for the fourth quarter by the time we get to late January. And that will be the first test of the everything else rally to see if those names can deliver. If you look at forecasts, they're expected to have a huge acceleration in the fourth quarter for the everything else part of the market. So if those names don't deliver in that fourth quarter earnings season, we'll be back to this narrow market after a short snapback. Speaking of AYA, your firm owns Apple. We've been on $4 trillion market cap watch all day.

$259 is the current level right now. The number to watch is $264.63 for $4 trillion. Have you guys been adding to the position, or do you feel like some of these moves are overextended? You know, Apple's had a tremendous rally over the last couple of months. It's been really, really strong. It's a little extended here at current levels. We'll see if it really gets to that $4 trillion market cap this year. But, you know, over the long term, I think Apple continues to have some strong catalysts. It's just a little overvalued,

I think, in the near term. And we'd like to see a little bit more of a pullback before we add to the position. Yang Yu, I know you're cautious. I know you think that the Fed doesn't have the markets back anymore. What does it mean for mega cap stocks? Is that why there's been a bigger rotation into them toward the end of the year or or does it signal something else? Well, I would first say we're only cautious in the short term for the next month or so. We do think 2025 will play out well and that volatility that takes place is probably going to present opportunities to buy dips. But we do think the Fed is a bit stuck here and that reality has been setting in, will probably continue to set in over the next month or so, that there still

needs to be progress on inflation. But the labor market is cooling a bit at the margins. We wouldn't want to overblow this risk. We don't think the market needs to have the Fed in aggressive cutting mode, but it is one tailwind that's been taken away from the market. So we have to wait for other catalysts to take place. And we do see broadening taking place, but we see that broadening more in the technology space, more to the mid-cap technology space and other areas, not just the MAG-7. But we do still think the structure of the economy is a winner-take-most type of economy. So the MAG-7 will continue to perform well next year, we believe. Why do you say that the Fed is no longer a tailwind? Because they're on pause now for a foreseeable future? That's right. We think the reality of the Fed's

messaging of needing further progress on inflation and that that's going to take a few months. It's not going to be one month of data that turns the Fed's thinking around. I think the Fed is willing to pause for quite some time until there's a string of favorable inflation data. Yeah, we got a little bit recently, but I think the Fed wants to see several months of that good inflation data before it gets back into rate. Do you think we're going to get that? I mean, Cameron, maybe I'll ask you, do you think we're going to get that? Because the bond market is telling us something with yields climbing as the Fed has been cutting. And I do wonder if it's saying something about the inflation outlook, especially with some of the Trump policies.

There is, of course, that risk that Trump policies, whether we're thinking about immigration or tariffs, could add to inflation. If we're looking at data today, though, we don't see signs that we're going to get this big reacceleration in inflation. If you look at wage data, you look at rents, you look at oil prices, none of these are necessarily suggesting that inflation is about to run away to the upside. But the point is, is that it's likely going to remain stickier than the Fed would like, which just suggests that it's not going to be easy enough

for them to be able to cut rates deeply further, meaning we don't think that there is room for them to deliver on hundreds of basis points of further cuts. But it's also likely not hot enough to suggest that the bond market needs to keep pricing in the potential for interest rate hikes. We'd watch the two-year really closely for this kind of measure. Look at the two-year and the 200-day moving average. If we start to break above that, maybe that is the bond market signal that it's pricing no cuts or even the risk of hikes as we go into what could be a higher inflation kind of period. Aya, what do you expect for the early

months of the Trump administration as it relates to investors? What's priced in and what do you expect? Sure. So I think in 2025, as we start the year, we're going to get a little bit more volatility. And I think the surprises in 2025 are going to be related to some of the administration's policies and what the impact those are going to portend in terms of all of the companies out there. So we'll have to watch all those headlines and see what the true impact is and the timing. But I think the Fed and their potential cuts are likely to be less impactful. But all that economic data that is going to have us all guessing as to when they will cut, whether or not they will telegraph a cut, those are going to be hotly debated. And I think it's going to potentially increase some of the volatility that we will see in markets in 2025. Here's something that I saw in your notes that I don't see or hear from too many guests on CNBC

lately, which is staples. You like adding consumer staples here? Well, I think, you know, just given everybody's exposure to so much technology, it's a way to sort of balance out, you know, the risk to portfolios. So we like seeing some of that diversification in people's portfolios, not just be so aggressive in a lot of the tech names. Even though we are seeing some of that broadening out, we do like to see some of it balanced out with healthcare or consumer staples. By the way, it's not to say staples have been too boring this year because year to date, I mean, some of these returns, Costco, Kroger and Walmart. Walmart's up 76 percent this year.

Costco's up 44 and Kroger's up 37 percent. Cameron, where do you look to add exposure to places that have already that haven't already run so far? Thinking technology, thinking some of the year's winners. It's an interesting question about defensives because if you look at the one thing that every part of the market seems to agree on is that there aren't any downside risk to growth.

Whether you're thinking about the overall market trading above twenty two times or credit spreads being so very tight. Or even the ten year treasury yield up near four point six percent. All of that seems to agree that there aren't

downside risks or price for downside risks in 2025. So maybe a consideration of some of these unloved, more defensive, more stable kinds of names, making sure that we're being very aware of the prices that we're paying for those as well, has a place in portfolios, mostly because they've been left behind in this sort of very tech-focused, AI-focused kind of market. Yeah, and nobody should say that Walmart is a recession indicator if it's up 76 percent on a year where growth has surprised to the upside every single time. Yang Yu, what about health care? I mean, that's one that has also been left behind this year, certainly this month post-election.

Is it a good defensive play in case growth does slow, as you expect, labor market continues to cool? Yeah, we think health care and staples as well are actually tricky plays here. We do think there are likely to be significant disruptions in the health care space with a new administration. And picking winners is going to be a challenging process or endeavor in that space. So we're cautious on that. I'd say we're also cautious on staples. It's not that people are not pricing in low risk, which they are. We do think that the market is really looking toward the growth that's likely to happen both in the economy and earnings. But the reality of staples is they're not cheap either. And also some of the profit margins for the staples sector could come under pressure. So we don't think it's likely to be the type

of defensive sector that it sometimes plays out to be. And it's really an environment where you're kind of backed into a corner a bit in terms of looking for growth and some of the defensive areas not providing the defense that they might typically provide. Quite a divergence in some of the staple performance. Dollar Tree, Dollar General, they're both down more than 45 percent on the year. We'll leave it there. Guys, thank you very much for kicking off the show. Great conversation, Cameron, Aya and Young Yu. We are keeping our eye on the commodity space. Natural gas prices falling today. Our Pippa Stevens with the details behind the big move, Pippa.

Hey, Sarah. Well, that gas did break above $4 overnight for the first time in nearly two years before a pretty steep profit-taking pullback ahead of expiration with the contract now down some 6%. Now, forecasts for cold blasts have stoked heating demand, and EBW Analytics said one key question is whether it will be severe enough to cause freeze-offs and therefore production disruptions. Now, this year, we have seen a big divergence between oil and gas. While

oil's been stuck in a range, gas has broken out with two key tailwinds behind it. That's LNG demand and data centers requiring enormous amounts of power, which could benefit gas-focused drillers like EQT and Tero and expand energy. On the LNG side, Chenier is a name to watch. They are the largest exporter in the U.S. and the second largest producer of LNG globally. And that stock, Sarah, up 23 percent this year. Okay, Pippa, thank you. Let's send it over now to Kate Rooney for a look at the biggest names moving here into the close. Hi, Kate. Hi there, Sarah. So U.S. shares, listed shares rather, of Toyota climbing today on a report that the Japanese automaker aims to double its return on equity target to 20 percent. The company also said its global production declined for a 10th

straight month in November, although worldwide sales increased for a second month in a row. Meanwhile, retail stocks such as Walgreens, you got Dollar Tree and Target all up today as the holiday shopping season comes to a close. MasterCard's spending pulse out today as well showed total U.S. retail sales this holiday season grew 3.8 percent, and the consumers were driven by a search for value, Sarah. Yeah, they're also the worst performing stocks of the Staples target. Dollar Tree and Walgreens getting a boost today. Thank you, Kate. We're just getting started here. Up next, the tech sector set up for 2025.

EMJ's Eric Jackson standing by to break down his top picks heading into the new year, including one name that is already up more than 100% in just three months. We're live from the New York Stock Exchange. You are watching Closing Bell on CNBC. Welcome back. Tech stocks leading the charge in the past week and set to close out another year with double-digit returns. Our next guest is on pullback watch,

but is seeing potential in a few names in the new year. Joining me now to discuss is EMJ Capital founder and portfolio manager, Eric Jackson. Welcome. It's good to see you. Happy holidays. Thanks for joining us, Eric. You there? Yeah. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah from the 51st state. Oh, you're in Canada? Where are you? Just kidding. Eric, you are actually. So let's talk about the names because you have a very high risk tolerance. You always go for names that make people maybe a little squeamish. I know you got Carvana when times were tough. That turned out to be a really good bet.

And now you're looking at Peloton. How long have you been in this one and why do you think it's promising? Yeah, a couple of months now Sarah I mean this is a name that like Carvana dropped something like ninety five percent- from its all time highest post COVID. And this is a name that that has been

forgotten about. But it's got a bunch of loyal. Subscribers that are not going to cancel that are high rep high margin revenue. And they are in the midst of a turnaround they have a new CEO starting next week actually. There is more

fat to cut at Peloton in terms of admin and marketing costs. And so I'd say it's sort of me and David Einhorn who really like this doc everyone else is kind of forgotten about it. But this has a stop this is a stock that has potential to

triple in twenty twenty five. And I think these are the kinds of names you want. On to look at going into 2025 because the market's rallied for the last two years, basically. So you want to look for names that have been unloved up to this point or are at the beginning of a new secular trend. Why do you say it has the potential to triple? Because the knock against Peloton is it just doesn't have that much room for growth in terms of fans.

Like, its high point was in COVID when everyone was home and everyone was doing Peloton. And we haven't really looked back at that time in any meaningful way. And most people I know who have Pelotons do not use them. Well, the ones who have them are still sticking with it. But I agree. Every time I pass a Peloton store in the mall, it's just in the last couple of weeks, actually, I was surprised when I walked by and actually saw real customers strolling through there. Clearly, they don't need any stores. They have spent way too much thinking that when they were $155 stock that things were going to continue that way. And so you can do well because they are on the verge

of tipping into profitability and have been forgotten about and ignored. And if they can pull on some levers to cut the costs and show just a little bit of growth, I mean, Carvana, keep in mind, didn't have a lot of growth, but they just didn't die. They didn't go bankrupt. You can see those kinds of names do really, really well. Okay. So one that has done really, really well already that you still like is MicroStrategy. And I'm always eager to ask people who own this stock, why own MicroStrategy if you can just buy Bitcoin? It's a levered play on Bitcoin, Sarah. You're right.

So you got me caught there. So if you believe, like I believe, that Bitcoin is going to end 2025 over $200,000 rather than $100,000, then why not have a more levered bet on that through something like a micro strategy? I just think there are a bunch of catalysts going into next year. Obviously, you're going to have the strategic reserve get started in earnest by Trump. And we know that nations like Russia and the UAE already have

been stockpiling Bitcoin. I think there's going to be sort of a rush, you know, everybody through the exit doors at the same time in terms of other sovereign nations following suit of people talking about hey there's 19 million of the 20 21 million bitcoin have already been mined uh and sort of a panic buying could set in i also think we'll see in 2025 a broadening out of the rally not just to the small caps and the russell but to in in crypto world to to alt coins who really haven't uh participated as much as Bitcoin has over the last year and a half. And you like the whole space. You like going through Robinhood, some of these other stocks, just any exposure you

can. Yeah, I mean, I think that's going to double. Yeah. I mean, I trimmed Coinbase recently because I had exposure to names like Galaxy, Hut, Hut 8, which is in the mining space. I like DeFi technologies the most because they're a crypto ETF provider in Europe and Asia that is still only like 5x forward PE.

So I think all those names will do well. There aren't that many public equities to invest in that are crypto exposed. So I have a bunch. I mean, Eric, don't you kind of need the Fed to be cutting rates for this riskier portfolio to work? And they just told us they're not going to cut rates as much next year. Well, many of these growth names, Sarah, you know, haven't really participated in this two year old rally, which is, you know, all these arc names that were

popular in 2021 in the heyday, like a Peloton and others, Affirm, My Own, Upstart. I mean, they're just starting to get up off the map. The sector I like the most, though, going to 2025 is something called quantum computing. I disagree with some people that come on air with you, Sarah, and say we were in an AI bubble because I don't really think we've been in an AI bubble at all. NVIDIA is not overpriced. I mean, maybe a name like Palantir is really the only one in the AI space that's in a bubble.

But people are going straight to quantum computing just really since the election. And I think it's because they're seeing that sector as sort of the next gen AI space. So I like names like Rigetti Computing, which I've owned for only a month, but it's gone from like three bucks to 14 bucks. They just came out with an 84 qubit Anka 3 system that's sort of like, you know, much bigger, more powerful than what was previously expected.

A couple of weeks ago, Google, Google's been rallying this month because they came out with their Willow chip a couple of weeks ago that was able to do complex math problems in five minutes that used to take 100 million septillion years or something like that for today's fastest computer. So I think people are looking ahead. They're saying even though these names are not profitable today, this is where the future is going in terms of the next gen of AI. I also like a name that's too small to mention because it's like below a billion market cap. But they're trying to be the post-quantum crowd strike, because when you have these super fast computers that solve these complex problems, you could break into Bitcoin and hack into people's crypto wallets.

So it's years away instead of a decade away. And so I think people's attention will turn to these kinds of names in twenty twenty five. It was sort of a wow moment when alphabet announced that the stock is up sixteen point two percent month to date I'm curious what a IBM has gone

they're talking about quantum two so. Agree with you on the theme overall. I mean how how's the performance been. This year Eric taking up taking a risk and taking a bet on some of these these stocks that you have. I mean, how has the performance been this year, Eric, taking a risk and taking a bet on some of these stocks that you have? I mean, these are volatile names. And so I think you want to do your own homework in all of them.

They can have big swings, can be up like, you know, like Regetti, you know, has gone up tremendously just in the last 30 days. But then, you know, on a piece of bad news or crypto pulls back or surprises, I mean, these names can have big corrections as well. I think you want to stay the course in many of them. I think it's, you know, you don't want to overtrade. You don't want to be overexposed necessarily. But for the names that I like, I'm sticking with them. I think folks should do their own homework. And these are the kinds of names that if you, you know, put them away, look at them in six months, 12 months, could really surprise the upside in 2025. Okay, just looking at the ARC Innovation Fund,

which we haven't really checked in a long time, it's up 16.4%. So some of these names, as you say, have come to life, especially lately. Thank you, Eric, appreciate it. Always good to see you. Happy holidays. Eric Jackson in Canada.

Coming up, making sense of the macro with Evercore's Roger Altman, how he's sizing up the backdrop for markets in the months ahead as investors weigh policy uncertainty and the Fed's rate cut path. We'll talk to him about all of it. Closing bell back in a moment. Welcome back. Data point of the day. Weekly jobless claims hitting their lowest level in a month. Latest sign of strength in the labor market and another potential headwind to further Fed rate cuts in the near term. Joining me now to talk about it is Evercore founder and senior chairman Roger Altman. Roger, great to see you. Hey, so what do you make of what the Fed is going to do next year?

Market threw a fit after the last news conference. Hey, so what do you make of what the Fed is going to do next year? Market threw a fit after the last news conference. I think the Fed, Sarah, is going to proceed cautiously, at least at the beginning of 2025, for two or three reasons. And I would add that the pivot that it just effectively made down to two cuts from a market expected four illustrates, I think, the degree of caution they're going to bring to this. I would think those two cuts would be smallish, 25 basis points each. I would doubt that the first one would come at the very, very beginning of the year. The reason I think the Fed will be cautious is for partly what you just said. Growth has been stronger than expected. A year ago, the general expectation was 1.5% real growth for this year.

It's turned out to be 2.5% in round numbers. And labor markets, as you just said, continue to be quite strong. Unemployment rate is 4.2%. Monthly job creation rate continuing to be healthy and so forth. The other reason I think the Fed will be cautious is the Trump agenda. How much of it will be implemented, particularly tariffs on the one hand, deportations on the other? We've all seen estimates as to what the implementation of 25 percent tariffs, for example, on just Mexican and Canadian exports to

the U.S. would be, give or take a half a point on the inflation rate. That's not trivial. So I think the Fed is going to be cautious, at least at the beginning of the year. As the year goes on, exactly what happens will depend just on the data that we all see as it unfolds. I'm glad you brought up the Trump administration, Roger. I know you were a Kamala supporter, vocal about that. But don't you think the Trump administration is going to be great for your business if M&A comes roaring back, as the market expects? It could be. And look, like every other American, I want President Trump to be successful. And I want this remarkable economy.

And by the way, the latest evidence is that holiday sales were quite strong, the MasterCard data at least. And I want this great economy to continue. It's been just remarkable, as Powell himself described just a few days ago. I think he used that word actually, remarkable. So we want that to continue. And I'm not criticizing any aspect of the Trump agenda. I'm just saying that if you're the Fed, you're going to be careful as to which of it gets implemented in full and which doesn't and what economic and inflation effects that may have.

What are you hearing from other CEOs that you're talking to, clients, when it comes to dealmaking and just in general, the desire to take risk with a potentially more pro-growth agenda coming from this White House? Well, I think there has been quite a bit of optimism through most of 2024, including well before the election. I think that optimism continues. And it's based on real things. It's based on the strength of the economy, the growth rate, consumer spending, which is after all three quarters of our economy, continue to be quite strong. And so, yes, I think there's a lot of optimism. And corporate earnings, of course,

continue to be pretty strong, more beats than misses and so on. So I think there is a lot of optimism as far as M&A is concerned. It should be a good year in 2025. The types of early indicators we look at, engagement letters, conflict checks, things like that, are all pretty positive. Although you can't see that far down the road on M&A, at least I can't, but it should be a good year. I mean, we did this survey, delivering alpha survey here at CNBC, where we asked people where they stand on President-elect Trump's economic policies. And this was the response that stood out to me because it was the biggest majority. We've seen 71 percent saying he'd be great for the economy and the markets. Twenty nine percent say his policies won't be good for the economy

and the markets. Do you agree with that? Well, one of the advantages that President Trump has, and it's it's really fascinating, is that he often can signal something he wants to do and have a counterparty concede the point or at least some of the point before he ever even does it, because he's a strong figure and he's unpredictable. So that gives him a lot of advantages. And you see, for example, that in geopolitics at the moment, Iran, for example. So I think there's good basis for optimism. And I think at least 2025 should start off quite strong. Yeah, I guess the question is, are any of those where we came back to the beginning, which is inflationary policies, potential disruptions from tariffs or the immigration and ultimately what that does.

So what do you think the shape of inflation looks like next year? Well, as you know, inflation has been behaving pretty well. Core PCE over the last three months, two and a half percent. It's obviously not at the Fed's long term two percent target, but it's pretty good. And I think there's a sense that inflation is, while sticky on the downside always, is nevertheless headed in the right direction. And I think the big variable is growth, because most people a year ago thought the soft landing would mean we'd have a little tiny bit of growth, like 1%, 1.5%. No, we're at 3%.

Yeah, well, 2.5% to 3% depends on which measure you look at. So if you're the Fed, you're cautious because the economy is a lot stronger than you thought it was going to be. And they've said that openly and usually at the margin that's negative for inflation. And so you don't want to be cutting too quickly in case the economy continues to outstrip your expectations and prevent the inflation rate from falling to where you want it to. Do you think they've made any mistakes in this cutting journey? They went 50 in September, which surprised a lot of people, was kind of aggressive for

a good economy. And then they went 25 last week while the market expected it. And the way that Powell framed it didn't feel that necessary. Well, I think there's a serious school of thought, Larry Summers, among others, has been articulating this, that we don't need any more cuts because of the strength of the economy on the one hand and the downward pattern of inflation on the other. Why would you cut if you had 3% growth? And I think that's a serious argument. And whether the Fed regrets going 50 at the outset,

I don't know, Sarah. Probably we'll never find out. But I do think it argues for caution now. Don't do too much and don't do it too quickly. Well, that does seem to be the mantra, certainly now. Roger, great to talk to you. But all things monetary, fiscal policy. Roger Altman of Evercore.

Pleasure. Still ahead, hopes of a box office bounce back. The industry looking to Disney to drive moviegoers into the theaters next year. We're going to drill down on what's at stake. We are back on the bell after this break. Disney shares looking to finish out the year up 25 percent, raising the bar for the company's film studio in 2025. Our Julia Boorstin joins us now with the box office setup. Julia. Well, Disney topped the box office this year as Mufasa won the box office on Christmas Day after opening behind Paramount's Sonic 3 over the weekend.

And now Mufasa will top $200 million globally today, despite that slow start. Now, Disney Studios have an estimated 25% of this year's box office market share, according to Comscore, with three of the top five films. Inside Out 2, Deadpool and Wolverine, and Moana 2. Universal's Wicked and Despicable Me 4 round out the top five after Universal topped last year's box office. Now, the 2024 box office is expected to end the year down just about 3% from last year, but at one point this summer, it was down more than 27%. And next year, the whole box office has a chance of returning to pre-pandemic levels as Disney expands from releasing eight movies wide this year to 12 wide releases next year, including sequels to Captain America, Zootopia and Avatar. What Comscore calls Disney's best slate since before the pandemic. It's also the ultimate test of CEO Bob Iger's plan to turn around Disney's studio.

Now, Disney shares have lagged the S&P 500 since Iger restructured the company two years ago, but they are up 18 percent in the past three months, far outperforming the market. Take a look, Sarah. OK, thank you. Inside Out, too, I think was better than Moana, too. But guess both big hits. Julia, thanks. Still ahead, a Bitcoin breather pulling further

away from that 100K level today, now down more than 10% from the recent high. What's driving the drop? How it's weighing on the broader crypto space after this short break? We are now in the closing bell market zone. A Bitcoin sell-off taking down crypto stocks today. Taneya McKeel is watching those move. Plus, Steve Kovac on Apple nearing that major milestone. And BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky breaking down the crucial final minutes of the trading day. Taneya, let's start with you on these moves in the crypto space after a pretty hot run. Any big catalyst today? Yeah, well, yeah, Sarah. Crypto under pressure with Bitcoin trading at about 95K. That's down 3% on the day and about 12% off its record. So we are seeing a trend these past few days

of traders shorting Bitcoin and Ether in the futures market. So they're betting the price is going to fall alongside a slowdown in buying activity in the U.S. spot trading market with the Coinbase Bitcoin premium turning negative. So this is according to data from CryptoQuant, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and the miners, of course, going down with it. You can see all under pressure for the day and on pace to end the week lower.

And Sarah, it was only earlier this month that Bitcoin hit 100K for the first time and even more recently that it hit its record above $108,000. So I think traders are coming off the high of the post-election rally, starting to focus on what really happens now. We have a lot to look forward to in the new year, but really focusing in on how soon we get to see all of those things that we are looking forward to. I mean, certainly the Bitcoin bulls got their wish in terms of appointments from the Trump administration, and now they expect all these things to happen. Where do the price targets come from? How are these derived? We just heard Eric Jackson was on with us at VMJ recommending MicroStrategy thinks Bitcoin's going to $200,000. How do you put a price on it? $200,000 is being floated a lot on the street. And, you know, we had Brynn

Talkington on Halftime today, and she said something I think was a really good reminder. She said that she was long Bitcoin, but you could easily see Bitcoin go down to 65 before it does hit 200K again. And I thought that was a really good reminder at this point as we head into a new year where everyone is expecting things to be so bullish. We also have, you know, new concerns now after Jay Powell was just talking about, you know, potentially rising inflation under the incoming Trump administration. We're looking at fewer rate cuts than traders were previously expecting. That's a good one.

So, you know, there are things that are going to slow it down. And when we look at the regulatory environment and, you know, a potential IPO in crypto, all of that stuff might not happen until the back half of the year, as we are actually still waiting for President-elect Trump to, you know, finish out his appointments. He has other priorities as well. So a lot to look forward to. But traders, I think, wondering how that actually plays out. Well, there's hope and there's reality. Yes, exactly. Tania, thank you very much. Good to see you. Tania McKeel. Let's turn now to Steve Kovac on Apple closing in on $4 trillion. Thought we might get there today. I don't know. We're awfully close.

Yeah, about it. Let's call it 2%-ish off. And so we're still on that $4 trillion watch today. That's going to continue to another day. Meantime, Apple touching another all-time intraday high today. Just a few percentage points away from that magic number, 264.63. That's when it's going to cross that $4 trillion threshold, the first publicly traded company to ever do so. I wish I could say there was a catalyst or a news event that's been driving the action on Apple a month, but it's just been this incredible run. We had, by the way, just today, though, Megabull, Dan Ives of Wedbush, he raised his price target. He's going

to be on closing about overtime talking a bit more about that call. But it's mostly just positive vibes while we wait for some real results from Apple. The December quarter is going to be the most important to determine if artificial intelligence really is the sales driver so many of the bulls on the street have been believing. Couldn't get much out of Apple on what they're seeing as far as AI on their guidance last earnings, though. Analysts are predicting modest iPhone growth here for the December quarter. Doesn't yet sound like that super cycle, though, for iPhone upgrades. We'll have to just wait and see a few more weeks before we get through the rest of this month and into the new year before we get that story out there, Sarah.

Yeah, a nice persistent rise in Apple stock. Thank you, Steve. Outperforming a lot of the big cap tech stocks today. Yes. Four tenths of a percent. BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is getting cautious on Apple as it nears that milestone. Jonathan, from a technical side, what are you seeing? Hey, Sarah. So, yeah, Apple's been on quite the streak as of last Friday and put in its fifth consecutive weekly gain of 2% or more. And that's the first time that that's happened since 2010. So it's been quite a while. If we look back since 1990, there's been just seven occurrences of it having five weekly gains of 2% or more. And what's

notable is that when you look a month later, Apple's actually been down six of seven times by an average of about 6%. The one time it was up a month later was in April of 2009, which is coming off the great financial crisis bottom. So I don't think that's really a good analogy. So what it tells us is it's probably due for a breather. You mentioned that $4 trillion market cap. It can get a bit of a pullback maybe around that level. And I think we'd be a bit cautious as you're hitting in January. You also have the possible tax implications where investors wait till January to sell some

of their winners. And certainly Apple's been a winner. So a lot of reasons that suggest that it should see a bit of a pullback in the new year. All right. Cautious on Apple. What about the broader market? The S&P has had a weird month of December. It's been so dominated by the Nasdaq, which is month to date up 4%. The Dow is down for the month and the S&P is completely flat. What does the chart tell you? Yeah, so we had that massive dislocation starting off the month where you had 14 straight days of negative breath. And yet the S&P really didn't flinch because of the big names got all the inflows. And so you had that massive dislocation. To some extent, that's getting resolved. You're getting some bounces from some of the oversold areas of

the market. Small caps are starting to participate today. And we're in that seven-day window that's coined the Santa Claus rally. It's the last five days of the year, the first two of the new year. So we started that period with some extreme oversold conditions, which is a good sign for that Santa Claus rally. I think as we get into the new year and as we get back up to 6,100 on the S&P or around those new all-time highs. The issue is, you know, I think what we saw over the last couple of weeks was a bit of a shot across the bow. That type of breadth divergence, you know, something's going on there. I think it's related to the persistent move higher in both the dollar and interest rates. And so, you know, those two parts of the market

are clearly having an impact on areas like industrials, materials, energy. And so, you know, those two parts of the market are clearly having an impact on areas like industrials, materials, energy. And so, you know, ultimately that divergence is likely to get resolved with some volatility in our view. And we think, again, that comes in January. I feel like there are two types of people now. There's mega cap tech people and everybody else broadening out themes, small caps, that story. There are 20 seconds left. Where do you, who do you think leads into the new year? Well, I think you do get a bit of a catch up from those laggards, from the oversold areas of market, the small caps, the beaten down areas of the market. But then I think it goes the other way once you get in January, where the mega caps, you

get that tax selling in the new year and everything kind of maybe pulls back together. We haven't seen that high correlation sell out. We're in the summer. All right. Got to go. Thank you, Jonathan. Jonathan Prinsky, happy new year, happy holidays. As we head into the close, the Nasdaq goes negative on the day.

It's pretty much unchanged, same with the S&P 500. Tech is leaving. Information technology, thank you, in part to Apple, it's pretty much unchanged. Same with the S&P 500. Tech is leaving. Information technology, thank you, in part to Apple, which continues to move higher. Real estate, financials, industrials, healthcare, and staples, all higher. That does it for closing down.