Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Stocks Bounce to Start the Week 3/16/26

Episode Date: March 16, 2026

Invesco’s Brian Levitt and Bartlett’s Holly Mazzocca tell us how they’re navigating the uncertainty surrounding Iran and oil. Plus, Nvidia’s GTC is officially underway – with CEO Jensen Huang – giving his keynote address. We break down all the highlights – and how it impacted the stock. And, Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher tells us what he is expecting from the Fed decision – and what’s at stake for Chair Powell. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm John Ford in for Scott Wapner. And we are live from Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or break hour starts with a bouncing stock says oil pulled back from $100 a barrel. Here's the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in the trading day. Tech is leading the way. You can see the NASDAQ is up about 1.4%. The Dow is higher by more than 400 points. And the S&P is up a percent. The Russell doing quite well also hanging in there with the NASDAQ up more than 1.4.4. Now, as NVIDIA's annual AI conference gets underway in California, we're also going to have a live report on that coming up. Also, all of the MAG 7 stocks, not just Invidia, are in the green. You can see meta there up better than 2% close to 2.5. Meantime, staples, materials, energy are the worst performing sectors. All of this comes. We continue to follow the latest developments out of the Middle East. And for that, let's get straight to our Aymond Jabbers live in Washington with more. John, we heard from the President of the United States at the White House earlier today.

This was at an unrelated event that was scheduled for a meeting of the board of directors of the Kennedy Center. The president's been very involved in the decorations and the artists and the board membership there. He brought the press into that meeting and gave them a sense of where he thinks things are in terms of the war in Iran. Here's what he said in terms of the Strait of Hormuz. And we don't have the soundbite. What the president did say, John, I'm just going to read you the transcript. He said, we're hammering their capacity to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with more than 30 mine-laying ships destroyed.

He said, we hit, to the best of our knowledge, all of their mind-laying ships, and now they can put them on other types of ships we don't know, and we don't know of any that have been dropped in. So the president's saying the U.S. military campaign has been extraordinarily successful against the mine-laying ships and that the United States doesn't know of any actual minds that have been laid in the Persian Gulf. So one of the questions here, of course, is when is the Gulf going to be reopened? The president had two messages on that.

One is that he has known for a long time that the Gulf was a strategic lynchpin and that could be threatened. And the second is that he wants foreign military help from China, from France, from the UK and others to help send naval shipping to reopen the strait of Hormuz. The president suggesting that some of those countries have, have agreed to send military aid. He did not say which one, said he doesn't want to name them, but he's frustrated with those countries who have not, John.

Back over to you. Amen, stepback question for you, since you've got your finger on the pulse of Washington there, there are a lot of questions about war powers and where this Trump administration action in Iran fits in there. The president does say this is going well, but how many rumblings are there around pressure to end this sooner than the president might want?

Yeah, I mean, the big pressure point is one that you see on our air all day long, right? The stock market and the price of oil, as long as those are within, you know, manageable bounds, I think you won't see a big outcry up on Capitol Hill from Republicans, which is where the, you know, the president's base of support is. As you watch the stock market today, I mean, you know, we're in the green on all the major markets right now. Oil is, you know, below 100. That's maybe an acceptable range for the administration. We saw Secretary Besson in Paris this morning talking with Brian saying, you know, this is the kind of thing that we expected.

It's going to last for a couple more weeks, but it's bearable. So as long as you see that, I don't think you're going to see any major political defections from Republicans up on Capitol Hill. All right. So many factors. Amen, thank you. Now let's get over to Pippa Stevens for a look at how all of this is impacting that oil trade we're just talking about. Pippa. Hey, John.

So oil is retreating today with some things. ships moving through the strait of Hormuz and Treasury Secretary Scott Besson telling our Brian Sullivan, the U.S. has led Iranian ships through to, quote, supply the rest of the world. Now, in addition to Iranian oil, energy firm Kepler estimates five vessels move through the waterway over the weekend. And CIBC, private Welsh Rebecca Babin, said it offers the market a degree of relief that the worst case scenario may be avoided, but there are still so many unknowns here. Now, the energy sector is coming off a record 12 straight weeks of gains, but it's vastly trailing oil's performance since the war began, and that is a reversal from what we saw

prior to the war when the equities were outperforming the underlying commodity. Now, the sector has increasingly decoupled from the price of oil, thanks in part to a shift in the sector's makeup with midstream and gas-focused drillers taking on a greater share of the sector's composition. There's also the fact that the futures curve drops off sharply in the coming months, meaning investors don't see a windfall for drillers in the back half of the year. John? All right. Pippa Stevens, thank you.

Now let's bring in our panel. Investco's Brian Levitt, Bartlett's Holly Makosa, Mazoka, sorry. Guys, welcome. Brian, I think you've tended to say that peak uncertainty is a really good time to buy, but policy uncertainty with what we see happening now in Iran, besides everything else with the disruptions around software. Are we at one of those moments? Can we buy? Hard to say if we're exactly at peak uncertainty, although I suspect we will get there within a shorter time horizon than some may suspect. Look, there's challenges here, but ultimately we came into this with a relatively good

economy, with inflation relatively contained economic activity picking up. And so you have a good backdrop. The challenge is how long does it persist? And so if in fact, last week was the peak in the geopolitical risk index, then yeah, the next 12 months, historically, history would suggest should be good for stocks. I don't think any of us know if that's the actual peak, but I suspect we probably will be getting there sooner rather than later if last week wasn't it. Holly, any of this throwing you off of your 2026 playbook? We are recognizing that risks to that growth story are mounting. And one item that is new since the beginning of March is some of the revisions in the data that's coming in. So,

Brian's point, we came into this year with a pretty strong foundation, but especially the labor market has weakened pretty significantly. So that's the big question for investors right now, is just being realistic that the overall risks to that continued growth story are higher today than they were just a few weeks ago. So Brian, how much do rates matter and how much of that rate picture for stocks is being driven by questions about the labor market? We got some numbers recently that raised some concerns there versus, okay, now we got this oil shock, which could be inflationary if it lasts longer. Of course, the administration is saying it won't last too long. So here's the good news. The good news is the market came into the year expecting two to three

rate cuts. We've now basically priced that out of the market without substantial disruption to the S&P 500 market down overall, what, four or five percent. So we've already priced that out. My expectation, I mean, prior to the war, the 10-year rate was falling below had fallen below 4%. I mean, that's Holly's point about a weakness in economic activity. And so my perspective on that is that weakness and economic activity is actually going

to be good for equities because the Federal Reserve is going to lower interest rates and steep in the U.S. Treasury yield curve. So that was the view. The market has now priced it out. But if you look at the way the market's been behaving since the start of this conflict, you have some things

going in the opposite direction of what you want, but not meaningfully. Credit spreads out a little bit, inflation expectations up a bit, the forward curve on oil up, but still, you know, pointing low, you know, still down in 12 months. And then finally, you know, that the dollar has strengthened but not meaningfully. So all of that suggests some challenges, but none of it is pointing towards end of cycle. It's a market that continues to believe we will get back on the future. path that we were on really just, what, 16 calendar days ago?

Or, Holly, are we jumping on a rickety bridge and thinking, oh, it's held well so far, but eventually one of these things is going to break through? I mean, how do you handle this uncertainty in a portfolio? How do you recommend that investors rebalance during a time like this? Yeah, this is where it's really important to separate the headlines from the underlying data. And when we look at where we are, we recognize that corporations, have a runway to continue to do pretty well. Earnings expectations for the remainder of the year

have held up well during this period of conflict. And a lot of that comes down to this expectation that you can see productivity from AI support margins, and you can see opportunities for continued investment and capital expenditures. However, we're not seeing the expectation that labor will recover in a meaningful and healthy way. And some of these headlines are giving consumers concern

concern about what their jobs mean for them and how much stability is there. So we're watching closely how the consumer reacts to all of this. It's not just the real dollars and cents they're spending on oil. It's how they feel about the dollars and cents that they're spending at the gas pump, that they're spending on health care, that they're spending on insurance, and seeing if that consumer sentiment slip spills over into realized consumer spending declines. And so, Brian, assuming the Fed doesn't move one way or the other, What's the most important color to hear out of the Fed for stocks right now and for, I don't know whether it's sentiment or, you know, what's going to happen as far as pricing in some movement one way or the other for the rest of the year?

Yeah, I think the Fed will have to signal that they are still open to rate cuts, that they're balancing the risks in the economy right now. Challenges have emerged that were unsuspected, similar to what we saw last April with Liberation Day in both. instances, the Federal Reserve was ready to lower rates to what we would view as a more neutral rate around 3%. And in both instances, they've been stopped because of policy decisions that were made. The Fed's going to continue to be data dependent. As long as inflation expectations remain contained, ultimately, I think they will get back on this easing path to create a more normalized yield curve. So in some ways, as long as inflation expectations remain contained, then weak economic data does not necessarily have to be bad for the market.

Weak economic data can bring forward Fed rate cuts, which tend to be supportive of multiples. Speaking of the Fed, Holly, how much finally does it matter whether it's Warsh or not leading the Fed this summer? Warsh isn't as dovish as what the market, I think, originally expected. There's this expectation that he has the ultimate control, and we have to recognize the Fed is a huge organization with many governors. who have lots of voices, and as Brian said, lots of data behind them. So this really comes down to the idea of the Fed being data-dependent,

looking ahead at what's coming down the pipe, and we just hope that they make sure that they are reacting pretty quickly versus waiting for some of these revisions to come through that show more weakness along the way. But it is a time where you can't rely just on that Fed put. You have to make sure that there's a level of defensiveness in the portfolio and a level of quality that can hold you through to this. the other side. All right. Solid advice. Holly. Brian, thank you. Thank you. Now, InVidia CEO,

Jensen Wong, giving the keynote address at the company's GTC event in California. Christina Parts and Abellis is there, joins us with the latest. Christina. Yeah, Nvidia giving stockholders exactly what they wanted just now. Jensen Wong just finished saying that their $500 billion backlog of Blackwell and Rubin products that they gave about five months ago is now being bumped up to $1 trillion of backlog through 2027. The share price was holding steady at about 2 percent, but now you can see it climbing roughly up about 4 percent. That was the big newsmaker so far. Aside from that big $1 trillion number, there's been a parade of partnership callouts, Dell, Palantir, Corwee, Oracle, you saw IBM Google synopsis and IBM shares actually

moved briefly on the mention, but there hasn't been any new product detail. sales per se, just yet. CEO, Jensen Wong, also expanding his telecom push. T-Mobile now joining Nokia and using Nvidia GPUs to power Edge AI as part of its a 6G build-out. InVIA first announced the Nokia partnership just last fall. That's when you saw that share price really skyrocket.

Intel separately also put out a press release saying it's Zeon processors. Those are CPUs will be in Nvidia's new Ruben rack systems. Worth noting, though, that Intel has been the host CPU in Nvidia's systems since Blackwell. since its previous generation. So this is an existing relationship, just caring for. Not necessarily a new one,

and that's why Intel shares aren't really moving on this news. The market overall, though, was waiting for this $500 billion backlog order to be updated. It has been updated. And then we're still waiting for details on the new chip Jensen has teased that he will talk about the CEO, which will involve rock technology. So just memory on the chip. So we're still waiting to hear about that. John?

All right. That's quite a bit. But I wonder, and this is somewhat subjective kind of color-wise, for a while there, every company Jensen mentioned that was public seemed to get some kind of a bump. Is that bump effect still seen with all the volatility we're also seeing in the market? John, whenever I write scripts for CNBC, I called it the mightest touch of Nvidia. And unfortunately, it hasn't necessarily been the case over the last several months, with the exception of that investment in L-I-T-E, Ticker, as well as coherent.

Those two names really popped up. But today, he just mentioned, he's mentioned dozens of companies. Are you seeing all of these share prices just soar and all the markets go up tenfold just within the last 30 minutes or so? Not really, right? Yeah, a lot of companies you're dealing with Lumentum is the one that you were looking for. I looked it up for you since you gave me the ticket. Yeah, sorry, I blanked.

I blanked. I got you. The ticker gets us there. Stina, thanks. Now, let's bring in a couple of NVIDIA shareholders, Doug Clinton of Intelligent Alpha and CNBC contributor Bryn Talkington, a requisite capital management.

Welcome. Doug, over the past 12 months, a lot of things have been going on in the markets that we haven't seen before. So can LLMs still figure things out, or are they just flying blind? I think they can figure things out, John, and I'm biased because at Intelligent Alpha,

but we do use the large language models to do stock analysis and portfolio management for us. I think we've had a good start to the year with our GPT ETF. What we do, and I think what we've been benefiting from that the broader industry is getting excited about, is really creating agents that go out and perform specific tasks. We look at macro environment. We look at specific micro components to stocks. And we create a thesis, just like a human investment team would. And ultimately, I think we're going to see productivity like we have an intent.

and Alpha go to many other industries as well. So what's that telling you about Invidia right now? We own Invidia. It's one of our top holdings. Are you adding more or are you shedding it? We've been consistently, I'd say, owning it. Our models have liked it really for the last year and a half at this point. And the models also do like some other infrastructure players.

I tell you this though, what's interesting in my opinion is the models have actually softened a little bit on the software trade. I think the models, our models at least thought. We were kind of bottoming. Software has been terrible this year. Everybody knows that. It feels like it's due for a reversion. We've gotten a little bit right now, but our models are now saying this might be it.

Might be it like we're not going to go up more or? The reversion might slow down from here, I think, is what our models think. And if you look long term, John, I think this is the question for software. Are the terminal multiples, you know, can we trust in them? Our models are saying it's getting harder and harder. Brent, this trillion dollar backlog news out of NVIDIA, it's kind of hard to wrap your mind around a backlog that big. Is that just expected at this point or does it change the way you look at Invidia? Let me try to contextualize a trillion dollars from a billion.

If you think about it, a billion seconds is 32 years. A trillion seconds is roughly 32,000 years. So I don't see how that's priced in, right? This is such a big amount of money. And I think you asked Doug what happened to last year. Well, I mean, Invidia is, was that 51% over the last year. It's that a wonderful year. I do think from the stock perspective, $200 feels like outer Earth orbit. It just can't get past it. I think ultimately will, but still I think for sure for investors like myself, that $200 is where we continue to sell calls against it. But to me, what's so incredible is Nvidia just keeps cannibalizing on their own products. And that's why they're so hard to catch up with. Because why Vera Rubin's getting ramped up,

You know, Blackwell's out there, but Vera Rubin's going to cannibalize Blackwell. But that's what Invidia and Jensen and his team have been so masterful. It's just being two steps ahead of their own products by continuing to have best-in-breed products, which continue to have such a strong motor around the company. Bryn, this reminds me of Apple years ago when it first hit a trillion-dollar market cap, and people were saying, oh, well, what it would take to get to two-triles. The iPhone's not going to get in there. They've got to get another iPhone, the car, or whatever.

And actually, they didn't need to do that. I mean, how psychologically do investors have to shift their idea of what's possible when we tend to look at what's possible based on what's happened before? I think that we continue to get what's possible by the spending of meta, by the sovereign wealth spending, by Google, by everybody except Apple, by the way. And as long as that's spending, that trajectory is just getting bigger. while we're waiting to see actually what they're spending all this money for, I'm not exactly sure. Most of that money goes to Invidia, right? And so I just think this is continued going to be a really strong name.

It's one of the reasons why earnings growth are expected to grow 26% this year is really Nvidia and Broadcom are driving the vast majority of those returns. Okay. Doug, how quickly can your models adjust? You've got this, you know, LLM-driven investment committee, but we've got headlines coming in fast and furious about Strait of Hormuz, about alliances that we used to be able to rely on economically that are now less certain. How are the data sources, and to what degree do you need to put your thumb on the scale a little bit and say, all right, pay a little bit more or less attention to that?

We try not to really put our thumb on the scale, and one of the lessons we've learned, John, building this company over the last couple of years, is trust the models. Oftentimes when I tried to think about, what would I put my thumb on the scale to influence? A lot of times I end up being wrong. And so what the models really do well is they can consume more information than any human can.

They can process all that information and make connections. And so to answer your question, it can pull in information real time. Or we can say, look, let's only look at information every week or every month. Sometimes you don't need to look at information every day. And as a human, I actually think that's the way humans should probably think about markets. And in some cases, it's actually good for AI to do that too. All right. Doug, Bryn, thank you. And now a quick programming note.

Do not miss Jim Kramer's interview with InVedia CEO Jensen Huang. That is tomorrow. We got at 10 a.m. live from GTC on Squawkingland Street and more you can expect on 6 p.m. Eastern's Mad Money. Now let's send it over to Sima Modi for a look at the biggest names. Moving into the close. Seema. Hey, John Sandisk shares are leading the S&P today

on what has been a really strong day for Memory Stocks. Micron announcing plans earlier, confirming plans to build a second manufacturing site in Taiwan, plus a positive note from RBC Capital, reiterating what they say will be strong demand for memory with AI tailwind continuing into 2027. That stock up 8%. Take a look at Peloton, though. Shares are rising by around 4%. As the company said, it's launching bikes and treadmills, specifically for gyms, branching out of its at-home fitness as part of its new commercial strategy. The stock has declined about 80% since its pandemic highs, as the company has struggled with sluggish sales. Meantime, dollar tree shares are gaining despite the retailer reporting mixed quarterly results.

It also issued cautious guidance for the full year, but CEO Mike Creeden, he was positive when asked about sales tied to Easter weekend. We're looking at the stock on track for its best day since June. John? All right. Seema, thank you. We're just getting started. I'm looking at the major indices up around 1%, maybe a little bit more across the board.

But up next, cloud company, Nebius, is surging thanks to a deal with one big tech company. We've got the details. And later, airline stocks are flying higher. We're going to tell you what's sending that sector soaring. And we're live from the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. Welcome out to closing bell. Nebio shares are soaring up more than 16% after announcing a big deal with META.

Julia Borson is with us with the details. Julia, what are they doing? Hey, John. Well, meta shares are also higher on two pieces of news. First, about meta's investment in AI and second about how AI could help it cut costs. Meta shares are bouncing back after they dropped on Friday on concerns about its new AI model, which hasn't launched yet. Now, meta is signing a long-term agreement with Nebius, which is a Dutch cloud computing company. And meta is now committed to spending up to $27 billion with Nebius, including capacity for one of the first large-scale deployment.

of NVIDIA's latest AI chips. Now, this comes as analysts celebrate a Reuters report that META is considering cutting as much as 20% of its workforce, which J.P. Morgan estimates would result in the company saving as much as $6.5 billion annually. Bank of America saying this report of headcount cuts, quote, highlights significant potential AI cost benefits across the sector, saying we think META has room to cut further, given outsized investments in both AI and infrastructure as well as reality labs. The meta does say this Reuters report is a speculative report about theoretical approaches, but John, it certainly speaks to the opportunity that meta might be creating to have AI enable it to do more with less.

Julia, isn't that yet the idea that they're able to replace people with AI, or are they just trying to create the room on the balance sheet by cutting now in the hopes, that AI will turn up these productivity enhancements later? Well, look, they've already talked a lot. We've heard from Mark Zuckerberg, as well as from other executives, that now one engineer with these AI tools can do the work of a team of engineers. So they've already talked about how there are these efficiencies, and each great engineer can do more with these new tools.

They've also talked about how they're specifically developing tools for internal use to accelerate their ability to produce new products. products or iterate, whether it's around AI or other things. But I do think there is this question of maybe they overhired. There's certainly been a lot of reporting about how they are paying some of these engineers incredibly high paychecks, which would come with an expectation that they're able to do a lot. But as their investment shifts into AI infrastructure costs like this nebious deal, you have to wonder whether or not this is a great way to save $6.5 billion by eliminating some of those very human costs of all these employees.

So we'll see what they end up deciding. We do have to note that this report is that they are considering doing these layoffs. It seems like it hasn't been officially decided yet. Yeah, that trillion dollar backlog for Nvidia has to come from somewhere, it seems. Julia Borsden, thank you. Well, still ahead, a critical Fed decision on tap this week. Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher is going to tell us what he's expecting when closing bell comes right back. Welcome back to closing bell.

That's in 25 minutes left till that ballot. Investors are awaiting Wednesday's critical Fed decision today. Our Steve Leasman here with a look at what to expect and what could be next for Chair Powell after Friday's ruling. Steve? Good questions, John. Janine Piero, the U.S. Attorney for Washington vowing to continue the fight against Fed Chair Powell after a judge quashed to subpoena, she sought in a criminal probe

of whether Powell lied to Congress in testimony about the Fed's building renovations and cost overrun. charges that Powell is denied. Her actions create the potential for Fed Chair Powell's term to extend after it officially ends on May 15th. Her announcement came despite findings by a U.S. District Court judge that, quote, there is abundant evidence that the subpoena's dominant, if not sole purpose, is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will. Appeal filed a motion to reconsider today and also promised a separate appeal,

both of which will take time and even more time if she wins. Tom Tillis has vowed to hold up President Trump's nominee, Kevin Worses, chair, while the criminal case is pending. Now, odds on Cal she put the chance that Warsh is approved by May at 62 percent. So that's a 38 percent chance. It doesn't happen by then. The most likely outcome would be that the board votes Powell as chair pro tem if his term ends. And that's happened once before Whit Powell and once with former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. Markets are looking for a Fed pause this week in almost the entire year with only a cut,

marginally priced in for December. That is 66% pretty good odds, but not entire. Worse will likely be in place for that December meeting, but it's an open question whether he makes it for June, John. It's like a recess appointment, I guess. Now, this would seem... Well, technically, John, that's a joke, but it's not a joke because there's some... There's a lot of debate about this that maybe President Trump could make a recess appointment,

except Congress doesn't do recess anymore. So he can't do that, but he maybe could do that. that. No, but I mean, the Fed can keep Powell in place because there's somebody who's not able to be put into place and, you know, they can vote to have him remain. Now, how much does this complicate, if at all, the likelihood that Powell continues on the Fed after he's chair, not just officially, but even the period in between when he's officially supposed to be done. and Warsh would start. So that's a good question.

Let me just make sure viewers understand that the Fed Chair wears essentially three hats. He's Chair of the Board of Governors. He's chair of the Federal Market Committee, and he also is a governor of the board. So his term as chair ends May 15th. His term as a governor runs through 2028, and he could decide to stay on,

but the existence of the criminal case looks like it might be one of the reasons he might choose to stay on. here if the criminal case is still pending. Yeah, Steve Leesman. Thank you. Pleasant John. Let's talk more about this with former Dallas Fed President and Senior Advisor with Jeffrey's Financial Group, Richard Fisher. Richard, let's start with this Powell situation. I mean, if you wanted to get him out, then fighting in this way with this case doesn't seem to be the way to do it. But if you want to hurt, I'm confused. What do you think is going to happen here?

You ever seen anything like this? Well, John, first of all, there is an old saying here in Texas that you don't open a can of worms unless you're going to go bass fishing. Piro has opened a can of worms. And I think the administration would like to get Warsh in there. There's no question that finance and banking committees would like to do the same. But they've made it very clear until this is cleared up and finished. They're not going to move and confirm Warsh.

So I want to correct Steve on one thing, which is always risky to do because I think Steve's omniscient. And that is that the Fed chairman, chairman of the Federal Reserve is not necessarily the FOMC chairman. The FOMC elects their chairman at the beginning of each year, usually in January. And they elected Powell to chair the FOMC. Now, he could continue on as not chairman if he, let's say this goes on, the Bureau keeps stirring a fire, he could be the chairman of the FOMC for a little bit longer, and it would almost be his duty to do so until Warsh takes place and gets elected to be

chairman of the FOMC. Again, the chairman of the Fed is not necessarily the chairman of the FOMC. That individual is elected by the committee at the beginning of each year. Jay Powell is elected in January for the year, and we'll have to see what has. happens with this case and whether or not wars can be confirmed on a timely basis. Hard to keep track of all those hats. Okay, now stepping back to what's actually happening in the macro picture here, watch your take. What is this oil shocks likely impact on price stability? I mean, how long would history suggest that this war in Iran can go on before higher oil prices, ripple through economies in, let's say, a non-transitory, more lasting way?

Well, you had Dan Yergan on earlier in one of these shows. There's nobody more expert than Dan, and he was not certain. He can't tell. And I would imagine that the FOMC is going to feel the same way. If this goes on for a long time, it affects not only the price of gasoline, but fertilizer and urea and foodstuffs and so on. So my guess is at this meeting they will not move. I agree with the market's assessment. And that Powell will have to spend his time during a presser explaining that there's just a lot of uncertainty here and decision making under conditions of uncertainty is not possible.

So to what extent over time is the effect of higher oil prices kind of like a tariff? Well, it's a tax on people that consume gas. gasoline and fertilizer and food stuffs, et cetera, to grow food. I mean, anything that grows or has to move from one place to another, right? Yeah, but not, you know, in plastics, for example, and a lot of inputs we point out on your show before, semiconductors and so on. So we're going to have to see, let's hope that we prevail in the short term. If this goes on longer term, if people like Dan Yergan can't forecast a price, I certainly cannot. Definitely would work its way in the inflationary front.

Now, it is true. The employment situation is probably worsening. The total unemployment number is not that bad, but we're getting reports of companies. You referenced earlier what is likely to happen with META. And we'll just have to see what kind of effects that has, and the Fed has that difficult job of balancing between fighting inflation and deflation and also keeping employment. It is an optimal point. I am far from an economist, but it seems to me like one of the complicated things about your job is all these things are interconnected, right?

I mean, like how high the oil prices are determines what's happening with profitability with a lot of companies, which has an influence on how many people they can afford to employ. And, of course, high energy costs, influence data center costs of operation. It's a cost factor. Remember, companies, we invest in these companies to preserve or grow their margins. And it's a question of what kind of cost inputs reduce their ability to grow their margins. Tariffs are one of them. High prices are another one.

Labor costs are another. And so I think companies are really looking as uncertain as they are in the immediate future, how they're going to preserve their margins. And that's what we invest in, John. That's what counts as far as the market is concerned. Future profits, indeed. Pencils out, investors. Richard Fisher, thank you. Thank you for having me.

Up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. Sima Modi standing by with that. Hey, John, Nvidia is not the only semiconductor stock on the move this hour. We've got the full list after this short break. 12 minutes saw the closing bell. Let's get back to Sima Modi for a look at the key stocks to watch. Seema. Hey, John, we talked about Sandisk.

It's really a strong day in general for memory stocks. Take a look at micron shares higher after confirming plans to build. its second manufacturing site in Taiwan. Separately, RBC Capital Markets, reiterating its outperform rating on that stock and raising its price target ahead of earnings on Wednesday. Analysts there, they're forecasting that high bandwidth memory prices

will continue to rise going into 2027. Meantime, cruise stocks broadly higher as oil prices are pulling back. Secretary Besson confirming to CNBC that certain oil tankers have been able to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, Carnival, Royal Caribbean, up about 2%, but still down double digits since the start of the Iran War.

And developments in Iran also sending fertilizer stocks lower, major names like CF Industries, Mosaic down at least 5 to 6 percent. After spiking over the past few days, about a third of globally traded fertilizer travels through the strait over moves. So these specific stocks have been sensitive to those developments, John. Yeah, just as Richard Fisher was alluding to, Seema, thank you. And up next, behind Bitcoin's bounce. We're going to tell you which stocks are benefiting.

from today's jump. That and a lot more, when we take you inside the market zone. That's next. Seven minutes to the bell. We are now in the closing bell market zone. Mike Santoli and Marcy McGregor for Merrill and Bank of America,

private bank are here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, Mackenzie Segalos, tracking the action in crypto and Phil Leboe watching the move in airline stocks. Mike Santoli, first to you. Speaking of crypto, is it me? Or did the Iran war break this connection

Bitcoin had to the NASDAQ and stocks? A little bit, yes. In fact, I think a couple things going on. One, if part of the utility is Bitcoin is actually moving money out of places where it's hard to get it out of, maybe the utility is being reinforced. But it also fits in with this broader pattern of since the Iraq war started. So so far this month, everything that did poorly in the first few months before that has done well. There's been laggards being bid. The gold over Bitcoin relationship got very stretch. Gold has not responded much to the Iran hostilities, whereas Bitcoin has gotten a bounce. You could look across other asset classes, other parts of the world and say, you know,

non-U.S. stocks have come in relative to U.S. stocks. So I think it might be part of all of that together. But, you know, obviously still a lot of headroom above the Bitcoin price before it starts to challenge where we were back in the fall. All right, the connection not quite the same as it was. But McKenzie Segalos, let's get to you for a look at the move in crypto. connected stocks. Yeah, Johns, you got Bitcoin topping. It's 50-day moving average for the first time in two months, hovering right at that 74K level.

Bernstein out with a note this morning calling Bitcoin's capital base the most resilient that it's ever been. About 60% of all Bitcoin hasn't moved in over a year. And then roughly 14% is now locked up in ETFs, corporate treasuries, and government holdings. And Bitcoin's biggest corporate buyer strategy keeps adding to its position. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin funds, they pulled in more than $2 billion over the past three weeks, nearly wiping out all of the year-to-date outflows. That's institutional money coming back after four straight months of redemptions.

And then you've got ether, outperforming Bitcoin on the day up by more than 10% fueled by BlackRock's new staked Ethereum ETF, sending Tom Lee's Ether proxy bitmine immersion 14% higher today alone. And then notably, as you were just talking about with Mike, the S&P Dow and NASDAQ, all posting a fresh 2020. lows last week, but Bitcoin has rallied right through it, John. Yeah, volatility means somebody's making money. Well, Bitcoin's not the only thing flying high. Let's send it over to Phil the bow for a check on the airlines. Phil.

They're getting a bit of a bounce, John, today because of jet fuel prices coming in a bit. But the TSA funding fight is front and center right now, especially after a weekend where we saw more delays at a number of airports. And the airline CEOs today posted a letter, an open letter to Congress in the Washington Post, and they basically said, look, you continue to not pay these people, you will have more delays like we have seen over the last several days and the last several weeks. Peak spring travel is approaching. As you take a look at the airline index, it's down 18.7% since the beginning of the Iran war. The TSA funding fight is really not impacting the airline stocks, but the cost of jet fuel is impacting the airline stocks. And speaking of those airline stocks, again, they all moved a little bit higher today.

we're showing you American Delta Southwest and United. Guess what? John, we'll hear from the CEOs of all those companies. Tomorrow at J.P. Morgan's Transportation Conference, likely we will get an update on Q1 guidance. Okay, Bill of both, thank you. And now as we head toward the close, let's bring in Marcy McGregor from Merrill and Bank of America, private bank. Input costs, a challenge for sure. You've liked small caps. But what's your take right now on this environment for folks who are willing to look long term?

Is it a decent time to buy? What are the things you need clarity on? Yeah, one of the things I always try to remember in these moments of geopolitical surprise is you tend to revert back to the trend you were in. And that was a trend of a market broadening a strong fundamental. So that meant small cap. That meant an equal weight SMP relative to market cap weighted or NASDAQ. There was a lot of opportunities underneath the index level because the fundamentals were so strong.

Our view for a U.S. economy that is going to top economists estimates and, you know, for S&P earnings growing 14% year over years still intact. Now, of course, the big question is how long do oil prices stay high? But so far, you know, in week three of this conflict, we have a market that is proving a lot of resilience here. Yields haven't on the tenure, haven't broken out from the range they've been in all year. The VIX has stayed relatively muted in financial conditions. haven't tightened that much. So I think you get back to the trend you were originally in on fundamentals. Now, it always feels a bit uncouth to talk about war in the context of stocks. But you, I believe, were positive on defense and aerospace, even last year before all of this started. What's the outlook for that arena? Yeah, thanks for pointing that out. This has been a long-term theme for ours. So if you think about aerospace, I think getting a little bit of a boost. generally speaking from the consumer. But defense names, this is a global spending story on defense. And it's not just traditional defense. It's cyber as well. Continuing in this world of less predictable

geopolitics, but again, this is not just a U.S. story. It's a U.S. story, of course, but also if you look over at Europe, meeting NATO obligations and, you know, this world that we live in, where geopolitics continue to surprise us in the headlines. I think this is a, super cycle for defense spending with a lot. But on the flip side, the consumer, I mean, higher oil places are not good for the pocketbooks and the at-home budgets. I believe you are already cautious on consumer discretionary as we approach the closing bell in about 60 seconds. What does this extra pressure on the consumer due to that consumer discretionary category? And at what point does it become an even bigger problem? So I would say it goes back to how long does this last. If it's six

months or more, that could drag on consumption. In the near term, what we're seeing is a tremendous amount of direct-to-consumer stimulus on the way in the form of tax refunds. We're estimating about $1,000 on average per U.S. household, and that, of course, it's very front and loaded into the first half of this year. So these higher and rising gas prices are coming at a moment as a bit of a buffer. Higher income household, the most effective market correction continues. But I would put this around if it lasts for two quarters or more, that's going to start one for the great assumption. We're not there. Yeah.

Well, no telling how long it's going to last. We know exactly how long this bell is going to last. That's going to do it for closing bell. We're going to send it to overtime with Melissa Lee and Mark Santor.