Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Tariff Turmoil 7/8/25

Episode Date: July 8, 2025

Will tariff uncertainty hit the economy and the stock market? We discuss with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee,  New York Life’s Lauren Goodwin and Charles Schwab’s Kevin Gordon. Plus, Rick Heitzmann from FirstMark Capital weighs in on the big thaw in the IPO market. And, American Century CEO Jonathan Thomas breaks down his second half playbook. 

Welcome to Closing Bell. Scott Wobbler live from Post9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or break out begins with a record-setting market suddenly searching for its next move. New tariff rates to digest, earnings not that far away. There's a lot in front of this market. Here's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation, a mixed day to negative for the majors. You see the Nasdaq's barely positive. Elsewhere it's red. Not a lot of conviction, by the way, way in either direction as you can clearly see on your screen. Rates have moved higher today and recently and that might be giving investors a bit of pause. There's also been some profit taking in some of the highest flying names. Banks mostly lower ahead

of next week's earnings. We are watching Nvidia. Dom was just talking about it with Kelly. The stock creeping towards four trillion in market cap. We'll tell you if it gets there this hour. Does take us to our talk of the tape. Tariff turmoil. And whether it's still going to hit the economy in the stock market or not. Let's ask Tom Lee.

He's Fundstrat's chief investment officer and head of research. He's here with us at Post 9. In the market, good to see you by the way. Great to see you. The market clearly doesn't think that tariff turmoil is going to hit the economy and stocks. Is that the right way to think about it? Well I think the economy, we've had enough data to know that the tariffs aren't necessarily

hurting the consumer wallet or hurting jobs growth yet. But we're just waiting for, as Fed Chair Powell says, to see how it shows up in inflation. So I think the next two inflation reports are going to be closely watched because if we don't see a meaningful pickup in core inflation and consumer inflation expectations don't move up, then it's going to give the Fed a lot more comfort about cutting over the next 12 months, and that would be good for stocks. The president continues to talk tough as it relates to tariffs and his trade war. The market, I think, is continuing to reflect a I don't necessarily believe you mentality

that the tariffs are in fact going to end up on August 1st as bad as they sound today or may sound in the days leading up to August 1st. Is that how you think the market is taking it right now? Well I think the markets somewhat pragmatic and they realize the president is making statements to try to force negotiations to come to a close but at the same time the president is is practical and knows that he doesn't want to upend the economy. So I think the market is trying to manage that balance.

And yesterday was a day where they weren't so sure. That's why I think we had a lot of selling. But I think, you know, as we as time passes, I do think at the end of the day, we expect the White House to find something that is a good balance between the two. All right. So you're going on the idea, it sounds like, that you think tariffs aren't going to be as bad as the, the bar would suggest at the end of the day. Is that right?

That, that's right. I mean, tariffs are already annualizing 2.4 trillion a year, which if you now compare it to where the budget is, it's actually neutralizing the current budget. But it hasn't hurt the wallet and consumer confidence, and it hasn't hurt S&P earnings. So I think at the end of the day that we've had enough time past that investors can sort of breathe a little bit of a sigh of relief and realize the tariffs, they're important to the White House agenda, but they're not going to necessarily derail the economy. What if there's too much complacency around that?

Got a VIX at 16, you said it's too soon to tell, that's why Chair Powell is waiting to see what happens with inflation, what if we just don't know yet what the real impact on the real economy is gonna be? That's true. You know, I mean, that would be a negative fork if that were to happen, and I think the VIX would go up. Well, I mean, isn't that a real possibility?

I mean, actually, it's a certainty. Today, we don't know, do we? Well, Scott, I mean, if we went down that path, then it would also open the door for the legal challenges to come back about what kind of tariffs can be levied without an appropriate process. So I think at the end of the day,

look, investors should keep that in mind, but then they should realize we had a black swan develop in April. April 2nd. April 2nd, a waterfall decline in stocks, the VIX went to 60, and everyone thought the market wouldn't recover because the Fed wasn't going to unleash liquidity,

but it was a V-shaped rebound. So if that should be in people's back of their mind, they shouldn't be too bothered, even if we get a bad chapter in this tariff story. What's priced in at this point? I keep hearing from people, well, a lot of the good news now, given the rally back and the V-shaped recovery that you said, now all of this good news is priced in. Is it? I mean, you know, I'd say that the ones who are saying it's priced in are a lot of the

folks that missed the rally. You know, we speak to a lot of high net worth and hedge funds. Many have missed the bulk of that rally and they're they're they are very skeptical here. They're mad and they're hating on it now. Yes, that's why it is the most hated V shaped rally ever. I mean worse than 2020 and 2022. But I'd argue that the PEs should be expanding. You know, the median PE, the S&P, is lower than it was on the eve of COVID 2020 by 1.5 turns. So the market's cheaper and we had six

black swans, we had COVID, we had the supply chain shock, we had the inflation shock, the Fed's fastest hikes in history, we had Trump Armageddon, and then we had the US bombing Iran nuclear facilities. Six black swans, the market produced earnings growth the entire time. If this was a stock, we would say it's sort of indestructible and we should give it a higher PE

but the market derated. I'm writing down as you were answering that question. Can the multiple expand while earnings and margins are contracting? Can that happen? Because margins are probably contracting a bit, right? I mean, unless you're passing through all these costs to your customers, which I think a lot of companies are reticent to do. Earnings we know are contracting because estimates have come down by near half.

Yeah, now on the margin side, you have to keep in mind that if let's say companies are eating half the tariffs, the gasoline already offsets that. So I'd actually say there's no margin risk from the current level of tariffs. No margin risk at all from now? Yeah, I mean on balance, because there's 500 companies, but I would say it's offsetable

because of the way some of the commodities have deflated. So I think earnings growth is actually still intact. But sure, we are gonna have earnings growth. Growth is intact at far slower levels than we were once thinking. However, we also know that ISM has been below 50 for 29 months, a record period below 50, and that is highly correlated with S&P forward growth. So if we get the tariffs issue settled and the Fed breathe a sigh

relief starts cutting and the ISM moves above 50 I think earnings estimates for next year actually go up. So you think the Fed coming in and cutting is because they cannot because they have to. That's right. I think the easiest way for the viewers to understand is Europe uses the thing called HICP as their core inflation harmonized inflation which excludes shelter. It's running at 1.9 percent and they have a 2.5% ECB rate. They've cut like 10 times.

Correct and if you use the US measurement the same way excludes shelter because Europe's core inflation excludes shelter. US core inflation is 1.9 and the Fed's at 4.5. 200 basis points higher than the ECB using the exact same inflation basket. So you think that the Fed should already be cutting? Yes, I would say that on that measurement, because I'm not the Fed and I don't do policy, but by that measure they should be. You can't fall back on that if you just lay out your whole formula as to why they should,

that rates should be markedly lower than where they are now. Okay, then maybe I'd say if I looked at where the two year was like which Jeff gone locked sites the Fed is for like three or four cuts behind yes. Well how many do you think we're gonna get this year? Well I think the markets pricing in 2.6 so like let's say two is likely but that still doesn't seem like enough cutting given where inflation is tracking. So if're 6200 we'll call it today on the S&P. What's likely for the end of the year? Do you think what's reasonable not likely you don't need to make an exact number call for me?

But what sounds reasonable to you? well so I would advance the argument that the PE should be going up because we had six black swans and The market has proven the resilience going up to what what? We're like, what are we? 22 times now, aren't we? 21 and a half. Oh, sorry, I overestimated by a half. Yeah, but the median is only 16.8.

But that speaks a lot to what got us here in the first place. You've had this massive large stock rally, right? Yeah. So when- So I might say, hey hey why not the other 493 get a two turns multiple increase and you would be 6,800 ish can you can you do that if there are questions about the resilience of the economy at this point

I think so because financials industrials are interest rate sensitive so I think they would actually reflate on the idea the Fed would be cutting. And there's a lot of tech that actually still has reasonable multiples and of course we know the cyclicals and the semis would still rise. So yes, I think a lot could rally. One of the knocks on the rally itself is that many stocks as we're talking, it plays right into that story, outside of the S&P 500 are not hitting new highs. This record-setting rally would have you believe that everything is going up when in fact it really

hasn't and certainly not at the same pace and even not even close. Yes well you know people always find quibbles with new highs but we also know that for an institutional asset manager it is not really excusable to be bearish when the market makes a new all-time high. So in other words, the institutions now have to start adding risk to making an all-time high because it's a new bull market. Oh, okay. So we're going to get FOMO.

That's going to be the next leg is the FOMO trade? I believe that is driving capitalism. Yes. So a component of it is FOMO. But I mean if you said institutions, you know, hedge funds have been more negative, right, they don't want to be negative and miss the whole thing. So presumably that negativity would turn itself as the fear of missing what could be in your mind a much stronger next leg even from here. That's right and it's and it's merely a reorientation of perception because the

market's only up five percent year-to-date but we could be up ten. So only half of the full year gains have been realized. So if someone had fresh eyes on the market and knows there's Fed being dovish and tariff risks are abating and multiples could expand. I think people could find many stocks to buy. Okay, well, you stay with us. We will expand the conversation now and bring in New York Life's Lauren Goodwin and Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon.

It's great to have you here. You heard it right here. You sat right next to Tom Lee and he was espousing his bullishness right in your faces. You agree with it? I am less constructive on the policy backdrop for this market. Now, I expect that for

the next quarter, especially here in the next month as we have earnings reports start to roll in, what we expected on April 2nd and what we have gotten for the second quarter are different things. And so I think that we'll see an earnings backdrop that's constructive. I agree that we're not likely to see Liberation Day 2.0 type of movement here in the next several weeks. However, I think the reason that the market isn't pricing really the impacts of tariffs is because we haven't seen it in the economic data and I strongly believe that that's coming. And so, you know, inflation has been incredibly well

behaved. The labor market is in better balance. Based on where the data has been in Q2, I agree the Fed could be cutting but what the Fed is worried about and looking at is an environment where holiday ordering starting around now that's where you're going to see the impact of higher goods prices that's what we're going where we're going to see starting to hit consumers pocketbooks in Q4 and so that Q4 timeline is where I think we start to see the impact of the data which is when I believe the market will react to the risks that are unfolding.

Mr. Lee, you say what? Well, I mean, a couple things. One is, Q4 is a long time from now. And many people are saying they're expecting tariffs and prices to rise and consumers to think that's inflation. But one thing to keep in mind, a tariff is actually a tax because it is paid and received by the government, which is then recycled, which is different than an inflationary cycle, which is a charge of higher prices to a consumer is then recycled by companies as profits and

it creates an inflation cycle. I would probably be more in the camp that even if goods prices reflect some bump from tariffs and there's a lot of uncertainty whether that's going to happen, it's not going to be viewed as inflationary and it's no different than us kind of seeing this as there was a tax levied its one time and. Even if that's true, you could still have a negative impact from the tariffs themselves on the economy at large, can't you?

Well, again, but the one thing that keep in mind is the movement in gasoline has already offset the amount of the tariffs. I mean, right, gasoline's down, huge. So I'm just saying that we're not, I think people are using a one model and say this is tariffs, it's 20 billion. It's missing, there's been a lot of changes in commodity prices.

And more importantly, you can see in the ISM surveys, there's a lot of pushback. I think a big chunk of it is being absorbed by the exporter, which means it's not being taxed on the American yet. Okay. What about you? I think that from an inflation perspective, you're actually already starting to see a lot of it show up on the American yet. Okay. What about you? I think that from an inflation perspective, I mean, you're actually already starting to see a lot of it show up on the good side.

It's just being overpowered by services disinflation and shelter disinflation. I mean, even if you look at the durable goods portion of something like the PCE price index, the increase that you've seen year to date, if you were to annualize that, it's one of the fastest increases you've seen since the 90s.

It's not that it's egregious and it's back to what you saw during the 2021 to 2022 supply chain shock. But I would say that it's already starting to show up. But it's not necessarily overpowering all of the indexes and making inflation at the headline level go higher. So from that perspective- Are you as bullish as Tom? Well for inflation, I don't have as much of a worry as I would for both. But for the market, yeah.

I mean I think that when you look at the sort of the fabric of the leadership of the market over the past couple of months, but that ties into the growth story that has been relatively resilient but also the inflation story that hasn't been nearly as worrisome, you know makes a lot of sense as to why we are where we are in terms of not just one sector or one industry leading, but really the market sort of taking its cue from the fact that the economy has, you know, generally held up better to the points that both Warren and Tom were making. You know, economic data have looked relatively resilient.

It's the what's coming from here, clearly, that nobody knows, but I think that that just keeps you in a low conviction environment until then. I mean, how much higher do you think the stock market can go from here? I mean, if you have a lot driven by multiple expansion, then you've got quite a bit to go, especially on the tech and the mega cap growth side, because if you looked at a forward PE for the NASDAQ or the NASDAQ 100, you still have pretty considerable upside if you were going to compare to where we've been in prior cycles and beginnings of bull markets, I would say, where you've got a lot more room to push higher.

I would say the onus is more on the earnings growth side. Not necessarily whether we get positive or negative, but whether that rate of change continues to keep up and you see momentum build into the third and the fourth quarters and that comes from guidance. But the note we have on the screen right here from you in the middle one, can we put that back up? Yeah.

Let's put that back up, please, so I can see it again. Because it said stretched valuations, stretched valuations. But you're talking about multiple expansion while arguing that they're already stretched. Yeah, but stretched valuations, I mean, they could stay that way for a while. And that's typically at these parts of the cycle, that's typically what, you know, powers you hire and then you get the earnings growth to accompany it after. I mean, for us, valuation is more of a sentiment indicator or an indicator of sentiment. So we use it after. I mean, for us, valuation is more of a sentiment indicator or an indicator of sentiment.

So we use it to say, yes, people feel good about the market, but also they're using that as a reason, particularly on the retail side, which is really more of the world that we sit in. For the average retail investor, retail trader, who's looking at stretch valuations and using it almost as a sentiment gauge to push stocks higher,

that's typically what we see at these points in the cycle. Does it mean that you still have risk to the downside, maybe more so or more protracted in the case that you get a negative catalyst? Yeah, absolutely. And that's what we've seen in the beginning of this year, whether it was everything deep seek related, you could bring it back to even the beginning of 2022 when you started to see a lot of really poor breadth divergences and valuations were stretched. There are points where it can be exacerbated to the downside, but it's also a reason

that many traders, investors, as we've learned over the past several years, it's a reason that they've used to push stocks higher. Lauren, when you look at that, do you look at the current price of stocks and say they're just too expensive relative to all the concerns that you still have for what's to come?

Right, you're buying stocks based on what you think is going to happen in the future, not where you think things are today. I agree that valuations are stretched and that here in the next couple of months there are let's say potential volatility catalysts, but this has not been an incredibly macro driven market in recent months. This has been a market that's driven by recovery, you know, just trying to digest different policy announcements that really the market has no more visibility into than you or I or others.

And so my expectation is that we will continue to see valuations edge higher here in the near term, but that this is an investor's limbo where the policy risks, though they're visible, they're not present in the data. And I think it's important that the impact of sort of price changes and starting to bear out in the market as well, the impact of tighter immigration, less labor supply, could create a, and I'll agree with what Tom said earlier,

temporary inflation shock. But when it comes to Fed policy and it comes to Fed policy and it comes to market reactions, even a few months worth of inflation moving back the other direction is really important. Okay, so what about what we're showing you right here, Tom? Yields, which have been backing up again, right?

Lately, anyway. I'd asked the question a week or so ago to people whether the bond market was going to have yet another flex. Whether after the bill passed, the bond market was going to say, okay, I'm going to show you again what I think about these rising deficits and your lack of taking them seriously enough. Is that going to happen one more time?

To say the least, are you worried at all about a backup in rates and the stock market not dealing with that well? Yeah, I mean, I think as a little perspective, at the start of this year, I remember a lot of folks saying 5% is where we're gonna see the tenure, or maybe even 6%, and people were talking about numbers that were even possibly double digits. So 4.4% to me is a huge win.

But I do think one of the things that investors have to be mindful of is that the CBO does not count tariffs in their budget forecast because it's not legislated. So when you have the $240 billion a year in tariff revenue, so just 2.4 trillion without inflation over that budget period, that's not even in the calculation of the 2.8 trillion being added to the deficit. So I actually think that the bond market is saying the tariffs are actually keeping the bond market in line.

Bonds are goodbye here? We're maintaining our credit exposure in the short end of the curve, not because it's particularly well priced, but because on a, let's say, two to three year time horizon, that's a corporate backdrop that is still really healthy in the U.S. and I'll buy and hold that all day and clip the proverbial coupon. We're not taking big directional bets in duration precisely because every element of the 10-year pricing, the Fed funds rate, inflation expectations, and the term premium are all in play.

Kevin Gordon, last CDU. Of all of the sectors that have lagged to start this year, right? Let's get away from tech, let's get away from industrials, financials and comm services. Which one do you think has the best chance for the most upside over the remainder of the year? Oh man. Well, I will say the split that you've seen in what is considered traditional defensives with healthcare staples and utilities, you know, utilities having pulled away from that

pack, not just year to date, but over the past couple of years. I mean, they're not a leader year to date by any means, but I think that some of the strength coming from that and the fact that they haven't been super well bid when you go into these really strong downdrafts, but also they've acted differently than staples in healthcare probably faces, not probably, I would argue face a different set

of tariff risks and geopolitical risks are a little bit more insulated and you add on to the fact there's probably more of a secular AI related theme in terms of power generation. I think that move over the past couple of years and just the strong breadth profile of that sector this year I think has been a pretty good standout for the sector. I enjoyed that. That was fun. Thank you guys.

We'll see you soon. Kevin, Lauren and Tom right here at Post 9. To Christina, parts Two Christina parts in Evelos now for look at the biggest names moving into the close. Hi there. Hi. Let's start with Moderna shares a soaring today. There is a certain vaccine, a flu vaccine that is entering phase three. So that is helping it. Also, it just comes about 8% higher comes a day after several leading medical groups sued HHS secretary Robert F. Kennedy jr. over his COVID-19 vaccine policy and then you also have president Trump threatening pharmaceutical tariffs today of up to 200 percent but that hasn't changed. Moderna shares up 8%. Meantime FICO shares plunging after federal housing finance agency director did say that the

mortgage lending giants Fannie Mae as well as Freddie Mac will allow lenders to use Vantage for scores in determining credit risk for borrowers It's part of an effort to really stir up competition to bring down costs in the credit scoring ecosystem And when competition increases FICO shares come down about 12 percent Scott All right, Christina back to you in a little bit. We're just getting started. Up next, First Mark's Rick Heitzman is back. There's been a thaw in the IPO market. Does that mean even better things are ahead? He will tell us after the break.

All right, welcome back. After a couple years of little activity, the IPO market's picked up with several companies seeing strong debuts. Is it a sign of even better things to come in the months ahead? Let's ask Rick Heitzman. He's the First Mark Capital founder and partner, and he's with us here at Post Nines.

Good to see you, man. Hey, thanks. Thanks for having me back. What is this like an awakening? It is. Finally. The thawing, there was a gradual thaw. Last time I was here I said, hey, there's going to be about a half dozen things in the first half. Across industries we saw Hinge Health and Healthcare, we saw Chime and Financial Services, we saw the beginning of AI and CoreWeave, and the market's starting to be functional again,

and we're excited about it. All right, what's it mean? Like, where do we go from here? Is this the start of what? This is the start of a general thaw of the IPO market. Also, M&A is providing a bit of tension in these markets in that we saw a pretty strong M&A market, we talked last time, we had about 10 company sales

in Q4 and Q1, and then a complete pause in the market in the beginning of Q2 around tariffs, and now, despite all this tariff crosswind, the markets are starting to be functional, both M&A and IPO. Are there names that we need to keep on high on our radar now, and if so, what? Yeah, I think you're going to see on the consumer side,

which we haven't seen as much stuff, StubHub and SeatGeek, they're going to get ready to come out. You're going to start to see some more crypto names come out. A lot of those guys have filed. And then you're going to see an ongoing healthcare side of whether it's Sword Health, Row Health, or Function Health as that kind of next wave of digital first healthcare companies.

Oh yeah, Row Health, you're some of the first money in there, right? Yes. When are you taking them public, man? I don't know, we gotta talk to our friend about that, but hopefully we're getting closer. The company's hitting all its metrics and really becoming a leader by partnering

with both Eli Lilly and Nova Nordis. Healthcare as a group, is that one of the, I know it's one of, but it's super hot space as it relates to AI. Is that how you see it and you think you're going to see a number of AI-related healthcare companies go public? You will. You'll see a number of, because you have a great macro, right, it's the biggest part of the GDP,

it's the fastest growing part of the GDP, but it's actually been a laggard in digital disruption. So you're seeing direct to consumer healthcare as consumers are taking more control of their own health, they're going to higher deductible plans, so they're more on the line for value, and you're seeing both AI and digital providing a better consumer experience at a cheaper price.

You said great macro, that's what you think we have? I mean, are we? Yeah, the great macro in healthcare. Oh, just in healthcare. Beyond that, I think we're seeing a decent macro. I think we're seeing our SaaS companies, our AI companies, our consumer companies, are seeing pretty good fundamental demand.

You know, days where the tariff crosswinds happen, we're unsure of the guidance we even give internally for private companies, but we see that fundamental demand, AI, as we've talked about in the past, is beginning to see a real ROI. Companies and consumers are paying real money for it, and it's starting to work. So then those multiples that those tech stocks

are trading at are supported because they're seeing what you're saying, the ROI. They're already seeing it. It's not such big pipe dream for the future. And that was that we talked about 2025 being the year of kind of put up or shut up, right? Is all the investment, all the capex that people have put in AI over the last five years

going to amount to anything, or is it going to be just a fizzle? And what we're seeing is whether it's on the coding side with companies like Cursor, or you're seeing on the automation side, and you know, the beginning basics of customer service agents and those types of things, providing a huge amount of leverage in the model.

A few bucks away on Nvidia from four trillion in market cap, right, would be the first one ever. When it approaches a milestone like that, somebody like you thinks what? Is this going to be fundamental, are you going to see this stock double again? What would it take for that stock to double again in three years?

And it'd be really hard, but if you think about all the fundamental underpinnings of AI and how important they are to the ecosystem and how all the other different players are playing in AI with their huge orders from all the Sovereigns as well as the hyperscalers, you don't see any slowdown of demand, at least what I'm seeing from my companies. Okay, lastly, you mentioned crypto. Circle went public. Does that lead many others to the promised land now? It does, there's a couple other companies

that are getting ready to file, confidentially, and then what you're seeing is that's the first, stablecoin is the first really good use case for crypto. I mean, the stored value that folks have seen in Bitcoin has driven some, but now all of a sudden you're seeing, hey, in stablecoin and being able to convert crypto and use it as a better, cheaper, faster way to transfer money is a real use case with a real ROI

and I think that's why folks are piling into Circle. You're saying that you know of other crypto firms that are filing? Yes. But they're filing confidence, you can't say who they are obviously. I can't say, yes. Okay, well we'll watch for them.

It'll be good, it'll be good to see. Okay, we'll see. Rick Heisman, it's good to see you again. Thank you. All right, up next, American Century Investment CEO Jonathan Thomas is with us. He'll tell us where the opportunity is for the second half of the year. Welcome back. Do stocks still have enough momentum to run into the fall? Jonathan Thomas is the American Century CEO and joins us now

to tell us what he thinks. Good to see you again. I wish I was there. It looks beautiful as ever. I wish you were there. It looks beautiful as ever. I wish you were here as well. I think we got Dom sneaking out here for a day or two, but you gotta get out here, Scott. Yeah, he's a lucky man. He's definitely a lucky man. So what do you think about this market?

You feel like we've really had a V-shaped recovery, as I've already discussed with our guests. Does it continue? Yeah, it's been pretty incredible. Obviously, if you weren't paying attention in April, and you just went away for a little bit, you think nothing happened. The good news is if you weren't paying attention, you probably didn't do anything stupid with your portfolio and panic in the

meantime. But yeah, you know, I feel pretty good. I think as an organization, we are marginally bullish on equities, cheating a little bit towards non-US developed markets. And as the expansion and market rally continues, the breadth of it has expanded as well. So we're also over-indexing a little bit into small caps. I find it interesting that you're still inclined to lean into the non-US trade which obviously had a nice run. Some of the commentary that

I've been reading over the last few days suggests that okay that's great, that's done. Now because of you know the tariffs aren't going to be as bad as thought, deregulation, the tax bill, economic growth is going to be good, the Fed's going to be cutting. Now you should lean into the U.S. Yeah, the non-U.S. markets have a little bit more accommodative monetary policy, but I'm not, I'm not suggesting abandon the U.S. I am always all in on the U.S. and our resiliency, and you're absolutely right. The soft data, if you think about it, Scott, for months has been incredibly negative surveys

and sentiment and whatnot. The hard data, the economic metrics have actually been incredibly resilient through this whole period, and I think they'll continue to be that way. The other thing that people don't talk all that much about the president Trump cares about the markets he doesn't care so much about the really short-term volatility but he pays a lot of attention and I think if we do get into some unexpected volatility you'll see him back off a little bit as we've seen in other instances as well. Oh so you're still a believer in the so-called Trump put?

100%. And what about the Fed put? You think they're cutting this year? Yeah, I mean, you know, I think, I wish President Trump wasn't hassling him so much. I think he'd be a little bit more free to do what he wants. But I do suspect we'll see some, a cut or two later in the year as we continue to see some pockets of softness in the U.S. economy. And everybody at the end of the day, the Fed, the President, they all want the same thing.

Everybody wants full employment, everybody wants low inflation, and everyone but he wants strong markets. And just at some point that data will line up and everybody I think will be aligned to focus on driving those markets. What does your client appetite look like these days? You're trying to figure out where bond yields are going, whether fixed income is a great place to be and to lean into now. Alternatives we talk about a lot on this program. What do you see.

It's somewhat channel specific we see on the direct to retail the clock the retail client is very much still leaning into equities of course gold has been the big winner of the year so far the it's up 25 or 30 percent. The intermediaries where they're getting advice from advisors at Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo, they're always focused a little bit more on a steady diversification plan and building long-term portfolios. And your institutional clients are very focused

on just getting sector exposures with the opportunity to get a little ofxed performance that comes from active management. So it varies by channel. You generally find that the institutional players though over time have a little bit stronger returns. They're less reactive to the market changes. Let's talk about the reason you're in Tahoe and you have that backdrop in which you do.

That's for the American Century. Of course, you're the title sponsor of this event yet again, which by the way is owned, operated, and produced by NBC Sports. So we're going to broadcast it obviously over the weekend. How does the field look this year because it looks amazing every year? It does. It's amazing what this has turned into over my 20 years at American Century this has evolved from a kind of a hot dog and

potato chip event to a world-class the world-class celebrity golf tournament. We've got about 90 players in the field, 20 active athletes, 15 Hall of Famers, 8 MVPs, 4 Heisman Trophy winners, and 2 reigning champions in Alex Caruso from the Oklahoma Thunder and Matthew Kachuk from the Carolina Panthers. So it's a diverse field of a variety of different athletes or celebrities overall, but everybody's super pumped up and the competit competitive spirit among all these people is just palpable and while not everybody's really in a position to win the tournament we maybe have a dozen guys that could win the tournament there's a lot of side competition going on here a lot of money moving around as they compete against one another. Crazy things tend to happen there too

don't they yes i can't get out of my head seeing Steph Curry hit the hole and won in the year I think that he went on to win the event a couple years ago, right? Yeah, two years ago. He took a year off to go get us the gold trophy in the Olympics last year. But yeah, he had that hole one and then on top of that on eighteen he did about a three point look away putt that dropped it right in the middle. And I think he's going to be in the hunt again this year. He's feeling pretty good about his game. Yeah, that's why he's Steph Curry. Jonathan, be well. Have a great event. We'll be living vicariously through Dom when he's out there and we'll see you on TV. All right. Look forward to it, Scott. Take TV. All right, look forward to it Scott.

Take care. All right, be sure to tune in by the way to the American Century Golf Championship. It's this weekend, live coverage Friday on the Golf Channel, NBC and Peacock. Up next we track the biggest movers as we head into the close. We're right back on the bell. All right, we're 15 out from the closing bell. Let's get back now to Christina for the stocks she's watching. Tell us what you see. Scott, I got to start with Intel because

they're planning to lay off over 500 employees in Oregon starting July 15th and this is as part of a permanent workforce reduction. The move of course is tough and there's been several of them but the markets are seeing it as a cost cutting step and that's why you're seeing shares almost 8% higher today. Meantime, SoFi shares, SoFi I should say, hit a 52-week high after the company said it would expand access to alternative investments and that includes new private market funds. This is a fintech firm and the move will allow investors to really gain exposure to companies including open AI, SpaceX, as well as Epic Games, something they wouldn't normally be able to do and that's why

shares are up over 3%. SoFi Technologies. Scott Scott. Christina thank you very much. Christina Partseneva is still ahead. We'll tell you what's behind a big move today in the financials. The bell will be right back. We're now in the closing bell market zone. CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. Bippa Stevens is watching copper which is hitting a record high. Leslie Picker on what has the big banks moving lower. Mike, you first. Your thoughts on this day? So, it's interesting.

The market's trying to have an escape from this overbought condition where the mega caps have done a lot of the upside work by just doing it through dispersion, right? So you have two stocks up for every stock down today and a flat S&P tape. Small caps are up 60 basis points. The equal weight is up 40 basis points, and the high momentum stuff's coming in, and the pure value, deep value is on the rise. So things like chemicals and biotech

are kind of getting a lift. It's very mechanical. I think in the absence of major macro releases or decisive policy moves, the market is doing some of its own deferred maintenance and seeing again if it can kind of get away with cooling off in this manner, because you probably needed to coming into this week. Obviously, the static around the tariff stuff, will they, won't they, what's going to happen

with copper and all the other single country tariffs. I think that's background noise for now to the market figuring out if we're going to have to have a pullback or we're just reloading for another move higher. I think the market is waiting to see what happens with China. Like you can send letters to whomever you want and talk tough and this that and the other but until we really have an idea of what the end game is going to be as it relates to that country, you know, it's kind of like markets saying like wake wake me up, we get to that. Well, that's right. And the question is, can we kind of stay asleep at the highs while that happens? Or is the suspense gonna wear on the market? Or

we're gonna just start to find something to be afraid of at these levels? I do think there's a sense in which a lot of people have become complacent that tariffs are literally not a thing to worry about as opposed to. Vixit 16 would tell you that. And I don't think they have to be like a make or break, but I think we've gone a little bit far in the direction of let's just dismiss this tariff stop. Well, because the market assumes, and it's been right to do so, that they're not nearly going to be as bad. The last thing that felt super smart to do in April was ignore the tariff panic and buy. All right. Well, speaking of tariffs, copper is ripping today, Pippa Stevens.

That's right Scott, so copper did close out a record, jumping as much as 17% at one point. Its largest intraday gain since 1989, after President Trump said the 232 tariffs on copper will likely be 50%, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick telling CBC, they'll likely be implemented at the end of July or maybe August 1st.

Now the tariff did not come as a surprise given the investigation was launched in February, but the rate did since many traders were expecting a lower tariff of 25 percent, which is why copper shot to a record. Now there was a global buying spree ahead of the announcement as traders looked to get ahead of the tariffs, meaning we could now see a pullback in prices as the imperative slows. There are still a lot of unknowns, including what products the tariffs will be applied to, but two names to watch here are Freeport and Rio Tinto, since both have domestic mines, as well as the only U.S. copper smelters.

Scott? All right, Pippa, thank you for that. Leslie Picker, do you want financials? And I guess no surprise that we're going to give some back. We've been at record highs. That's exactly it. It's got banks going into earnings next week, not quite priced for perfection, but pretty darn close here.

As Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo notes, bank stocks have been quote, writing the deregulation wave from a price of 10 times next year's earnings to 12 times, but he sees an upside to more than 15 times once there's a revised Basel framework, bureaucracy streamlining, and a moderated Fed stress test. Mayo says next week's two-queue results should showcase their long-awaited EPS inflection point. But on the flip side, HSBC downgrading JP Morgan,

Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America on valuations that they believe appear to be increasingly stretched. The firm notes that the downside risks associated with macro uncertainty, as we're seeing today, they believe they're not fully priced into those things. Now, it appears that the banks today are pricing in more of that bear case with each of the big six in the red today, Scott. All right, Leslie, thank thank you Leslie Picker. We are seeing some names give a little bit back.

That's been one of the themes lately. Without a doubt I would say also you have that call to the downside on JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs who also were like exhibit A and B of the momentum trade within financials. So that's why you are seeing that just take a step back for now. Big picture. I definitely align with those who say the market has earned back to benefit of the doubt. We're in an uptrend. But it's mostly about the absence of negatives and not fresh positives. The absence of negatives are, well, sell-side research, sell-side strategists are not over

their skis with high targets, but they are raising the targets. H know, hedge fund positioning, it's not as washed out as it was, but it's only neutral, it's not over aggressive. So, until we get to maybe some further extremes, we don't really have that great hazard of some, you know, big down. I'm looking back toward last July as well, you start to lose, the seasonal tailwinds typically in the middle part of this month. July 16th of last year, they had this big melt up top in the Mag 7. They backed off, the equal weight did fine,

the overall S&P had like a six or seven percent pullback. It was really no big deal, but at the time, it looked like a pretty good, you know, kind of rhino horn top in the NASDAQ. Well, with the, you know, Nvidia approaching four trillion dollars in market cap today, it's gonna be really interesting over the next two and a half or so weeks as you build up into earnings

and then you're gonna really have to deliver. Right, so the bar is going higher. You certainly don't want to take these round number thresholds and say, oh, that's gonna ring the bell and say the party's over. But it's definitely worth noting that it's melted to these levels after having been stuck for many months. All right, good stuff.

Thank you, Mike. That's Mike Benetola. Bell's gonna ring us out. Nasdaq's gonna ring us out. Nasdaq's gonna basically be on the flat line with the S&P. Dow's gonna be down a third of 1%. That does it for us.

I'll see you tomorrow.