Closing Bell - Closing Bell: The Record-Setting Rally 5/22/26

Episode Date: May 22, 2026

How long can this rally last? Trivariate’s Adam Parker. Robinhood’s Stephanie Guild and Solus’ Dan Greenhaus tell us what they think. Plus, former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher tells us what he is expecting from a Warsh-led Fed. And, is bitcoin fundamentally broken? Oliver Renick tells us why the options market may hold the answer. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, guys, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wapner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with higher stocks and new Fed share and how to play these markets right now. We will ask our experts over this final stretch. Let's show you the scorecard with 60 to go and regulation before this holiday weekend. We are green across the board. And we really have been that way for the entire day.

We take a look at yields because we're so focused on what's been happening in the bond market as well. Two and five's higher, 10 and 30 lower. the 10 and 30, the long end, where we've been fixated. Maybe there's some hopes today, too, for a breakthrough in the Middle East. We'll have more coming up on what a Kevin Worse-led Fed will mean for the markets and your money. The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timoros and the former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher joining us in just a bit. As far as the markets go, big winners today, including Dell, higher, along with several of the other AI names. How about Spotify? Up big again, following through on its big burst yesterday.

they had the first investor day in four years. It worked because the stock's up huge on the backside of that. How about Goldman Sachs? Topping $1,000 for the first time ever on IPO optimism. The capital markets, they are open for business. Goldman is reaping the rewards. All right, it takes us to our talk of the tape, the record-setting rally, and how long it can last. Let's ask our panel. CNBC contributor Triveriates Adam Parker, Robin Hood, Stephanie Gild, and Solace's Dan Green. It's great to have everybody with us as we head into a long weekend.

Are you feeling about this market? It's so funny. Like, we're smooth sailing. We have a couple of rough days, maybe two or three, and we're like, oh, my gosh, here comes the long-awaited correction. And the market's like, not so fast. We go right back to new highs. Yeah, I mean, I think it's just really hard to get negative when the actual earnings are

this strong. And that sort of is going to power through any geopolitical concerns or other things. that are servicing. People I talked to, it's funny, you led with the Fed. I've gotten zero questions about the Fed this week, about Kevin, about, like, literally not one institutional investors mentioned it. It's funny you say that because during our coverage of the swearing in earlier, I mentioned to, you know, one of our experts that we had with us that this moment in time in this market, we don't even talk about the Fed. Because the market's fixated on earnings in AI, not the Fed. The Fed's next move doesn't appear to be anytime soon, and it all but feels irrelevant

to the current market conversation. Totally, which, as you know, I love because I hate it when it is relevant. So this is perfect for me. I think investors are focused on what part of the AI chain can I, you know, still feel good about. So we've done a lot of work using all kinds of AI methods to try to identify companies with AI revenue sources. And then what can I own that isn't AI semis? Is there anything that's decent there? So a lot of it's more portfolio diversification and strategy as opposed to trying to make the call that the market's going to roll over.

because I don't think there's any near-term fundamental news that's going to change the path. And we could think about what could cause the AI trade to sell off. Is it maybe a delay in deployment or something else? But it just doesn't seem likely in the next couple months. Based on the notes that I read, step from you, the Robin Hood community believes in this bull run and this record-setting rally because top net buys, the memory stocks, other chip names, the microns, the sandis, the D-W, the D-Wallon. the NVIDIA's of the world, that doesn't sound like a cohort that thinks this is ending anytime soon.

No, they've been at the top for a while. And I think there's, you saw them like they like to buy the dip. And so you had that little bit of a dip as you called out the last couple of days. And they were like, oh, let's say they're like it's better than it was, you know, Friday. And so I do think they take care of it or take a part of that. The other thing I've been seeing is in the prediction markets is I think that's where they are kind of hedging some of this. You are seeing them play like, you know, gas prices and oil prices. and also what's happening in the political environment, like L.A. mayor chances.

So, like, really, like last Friday, right? And we kind of, Monday was not great and bled into Tuesday. Dip buyers came right in. Yet another V shape off of a shallow pullback, albeit, but nonetheless, people aren't letting these stocks go down all that much before they pounce. I think Adam hit the nail on the head, which is earnings growth was exceptional. again, even when you X out the one-time investment in subsidiaries or equity investments from the hyperscalers. And more recently, you have William Sonoma and Walmart, obviously, the performance.

They were cautious. They were cautious, but the comments about the actual consumer were more sentiment than activity-driven. You had William Sonoma and Boot Barn and some of the smaller retailers reported, all of which said more or less that the consumer thus far hasn't exhibited any issues with respect to the higher gas. prices. And admittedly, 450 is higher than it was for sure. But it's not some, it's not 5% plus. And oil prices seem to have stabilized at this level. We're sort of treading water here, call it around 100 bucks for TI. And so unless things get meaningfully worse, I think that the story, again, of just dominant earnings growth on the part of American companies is going to

win the day. With the addition, the AI story for the millionth time, remains an unambiguous. compared and unimpeded. That was Chris Harvey's point yesterday on this program from CIBC, raises target to 8,020. It's like, what's going to derail? This thing, the earnings are really good. And bonds gave the stock market their best shot, and it wasn't enough for more than a few days

to get people feeling a little unsettled. Doesn't see yields going higher much from here, doesn't see oil going much higher from here. As both of those come back down, only gives the stock market more juice. You believe that story, it sounds like? Yeah, I mean, look, I think the memory trade and the associated semi-cap equipment are the ones that will go down the most when people freak out. So I think when you look at it, people are trying to find cheaper DRAM a little bit.

Obviously, you don't need to buy the most expensive DRAM for anything. You're seeing some demand destruction. So I think you could get the big demand supply imbalance and memory closing some in the next couple months. And I wouldn't be shocked if we got somewhat of a sharper sell off there. Hey, but Adam, I'm sorry to interrupt. Does valuation matter for those names right now? It doesn't matter for any stocks. But I know.

I think over time, earnings can change that view. Like, you could just end up getting the point, like, within video where earnings expectations are so high that even really good report is just okay. I mean, let's just put up Micron. Because it's a good. We weren't walking through what we think is the highest probability outcome. We were just saying what could derail the trade. What could derail the trade would be some sense that demands by the balance is closing.

Which is kind of inflation, right? Like, I do think, like, higher oil and gas prices and commodity prices could derail it temporarily. I mean, we looked at every company that mentioned any comment on any earnings called transcript. And we think it's about net negative for about 10% of the companies and about 7% or 8% of the earnings. If oil stays really high, mostly concentrated in consumer. We've chosen, despite a couple of decent prints you mentioned, Dan, to say some of more negative. on discretionary in Staples, just thinking, but when you look underneath and the consumer stocks have really underperformed.

The aggregate sector is misleading. It looks like it's been good because Amazon and Tesla have been okay. But underneath the surface, things have been shattered. They're just starting to come back. It's just too hard to try and pick winners in what's been a loser's environment for the most part. Starbucks is coming back. It's also important to remember that from a portfolio allocation standpoint, picking

the right sector is the largest. determinant of portfolio outperformers. Or theme. That's fair. So if you say, I'm going to be underweight consumer discretionary, it doesn't really matter. Mostly, it doesn't matter which consumer discretionary name you pick. You're going to outperform by underweighting it, and vice versa. If you overweight technology and it outperforms, it doesn't really matter which names. So getting the theme right, and so the point about discretionary is nobody wants to be exposed to a lot of these names right now. And so even though I might highlight urban outfitters and Boot Barn and William Sonoma doing quite well,

it's really hard to get investors, I imagine, into those names. The issue is that the penalty for missing is so much harsher than the award for beating, that you just can't afford to own something. It used to be you could say, I get this business, I know they're going to recover, I get current conditions are poor, but I'll buy it anyway for what I know will turn out to be better in a year or two. You can't do that now because even cheap stocks that are missing are going down more than expensive stocks that are missing. Yeah, I actually agree with you. to wait in until things are better.

Steph, do I have a feeling that, you know, you look at some of these moves that we've seen in the market, you know, straight up into the right for the most part, whether it's the microns of the world or any number of other chip names? And for that matter, even software stocks, which many seem to be, you know, left in the gutter, have been rallying for the last month just about. That it's made you a little uncomfortable the way that these charts. all look. I mean, look, even Ed Yardinney, who's a bull, unabashed, exuberance may be turning a wee bit irrational, he suggests. You agree? Yeah, I do. And I've reflected a little bit in our

Robin Hood Strategies portfolio is I took a profit in one or two of the very, like, parabolic move names that we held and put into other high moving, but not as parabolic names. It is a little harder, I think, to get, and I actually agree with Adam on it, that it is easier to invest in things that are kind of have the right nice technicals than it is to go into something that you can bet on a recovery. I have a couple of them in the portfolio, but I'd much rather focus on materials and energy as being more of a recovery. You know, to this, to Ed's point, one of my favorite counterintuitive talking points, and it's especially relevant in light of what he just said is, the 90s bull market, which we tend to think of as this one long, exaggerated blow off top, was really not. It was really just that 99 period. From 95 through 90, the beginning of 95 through the beginning of the end of 98, the NASDAQ went up at about a 30 and a half percent annualized

clip for those four years. For the three years of 23, 24, 25, the NASDAQ today is going up at a 31 and a half. So we're actually going up faster at an annualized. clip today than we were in the early part of the bull market then. So I don't know if that means we are more rational today than we were then, but it does mean that we are tracking largely in line with what was happening then, and which begs the question is, at what point does this bull market valley, if ever, become that late 99 blow off the time? In part, that is rationales that earn. Like, at least there's earnings. Oh, that's exactly where I was going. Exactly right. Like, it's backed up by what everybody has said and believes that

this is fundamentally driven, maybe have a little euphoria mixed in, but fundamentally driven by really strong earnings. Now, we're not going to, we're just basically done with the whole quarter's worth of earnings reports. We're going to have to wait a few months to get even more until that story starts to crack. How can the story crack? Yeah, I think when you go through it, it has to be something that either delays or has a poor deployment of something on the AI front or something on the capital side, you know, and it's just unlikely that you're going to find, you know, a dispositive here in the near term. So I think the question is, do you rotate out of things that seem like it's hard to justify

even on some sort of 2030 peak, right? And I think that's maybe where it's harder to believe the memory trade can really last. So a lot of people I'm talking to are trying to figure out what is it some vertical an edge or is it other parts of infrastructure, or is it power, like where are the bottlenecks on the chain where I can still feel like. fundamentals are decent, but maybe less vulnerable to a big, you know, bigger correction when things do sell off. Yeah. I mean, you know, until and if oil and rates come down, this idea of a broadening trade and thinking that it's smart to move away from the AI complex is going to be hard to sell people on,

don't you think? I still think it's the biggest risk, and that's the only thing that's keeping me a little cautious, which is why we have things like Eaton and Alcoa in our portfolio, because I just think it's the right thing to do until we have an answer on what's happening. Eaton's an AI. It is. But it's also the fact that they provide power where our power grid is extremely old and needs to be reinvested in. And now there's capital for that in addition to the fact that there is higher demand.

But I think the bigger or the challenge is just that it used to be years ago. You could say, I want to get defensive. I'll buy staples and pharma. Yeah. And so what happens is that used to be 30% of the SPP and now it's 10. right so you can't even there's there's not enough market cap to get defensive and it misses so what's worse than buying something for defense and then it misses and I think that's also why people were sticking with the AI semis trade they're like I know it's like gonna miss and I haven't

I haven't kind of seen that you know it is the the biggest market adjacent story of the day let's call it that the new fed share Kevin Worse sworn in earlier at the White House and pledging to put his own stamp on that institution I will lead a reform oriented federal reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes both, escaping static frameworks and models, and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance. Join now by the Wall Street Journal, Chief Economics correspondent Nick Timrose, good to have you, especially on a day like this, doesn't happen all that often, so we're grateful for your insight.

A reform-oriented Fed, said Mr. Warsh today. What does that mean? Well, I think Scott the tell at the ceremony was who Kevin Warsh reached for. He invoked Alan Greenspan, sworn in at the same spot in 1987, the last time we had a swearing into the White House, and he said he would lead with energy and purpose, just like Chairman Greenspan did. There was no mention of Ben Bernanke, the chair that Kevin Warsh actually served under the whole time that he was a governor on the board through the 2008 crisis.

Bernanke wasn't there, he wasn't invited. And I think that that's the signal there. The Worse Reform Agenda, a smaller balance sheet, quieter Fed, less forward guidance, is essentially about pulling back the Fed back to where it was in the 1990s and trying to run the institution the way Alan Greenspan did. You know, you raised a really interesting point and one that I didn't even consider myself

as we were watching this all unfold today is that Bernanke wasn't in the room. Now, of course, you couldn't see everybody who was in the room. room, but he didn't, to your point, single him out, mention him in any way, shape, or form, which has me wonder, and I think there were some, you know, reports from the period of time around the crisis as to whether Kevin Warsh has a different view on what the Fed's role should be, even in times of crisis, whether, you know, endless money printing or what have you, the helicopter coming in with the cash falling is even a right move. How would you address that?

Well, here's the question I put on the table, which is Warsh wants the Greenspan fed back, but which Greenspan moment is he walking into? The optimistic version, which we hear about a lot, is 1996, strong economy, productivity growth, Greenspan resists the pressure to tighten, and he is vindicated in some ways by the boom in the late 1990s. And that's the story that the White House is telling and that they're hoping for. You know, the darker version, which I think Dan alluded to a few minutes ago, is 1999. The economy is racing. The Fed ends up taking it all back, the three cuts that it made in 1998.

It was tightening into 2000. And that was in a situation, Scott, where inflation was not moving higher. So today you have this AI mania, and you're starting to see it show up in stronger demand, stronger CAPEX, and maybe, you know, memory stick prices and things like that starting to go up. And I think that that's the question here. Are we in 96 or 99? I also thought it was interesting when the president himself sort of went out of his way to give his vision, if you will, for an economy, right? where he's like, if it's booming, let it boom. The idea don't get fixated on the idea that a big economic boom could cause inflation, you know, the idea of let it rip.

Yeah, you picked up on it, the dueling benedictions that we got. Right after Trump says, I want you to be independent, don't listen to me or anybody else, he sort of says what he wants to, you know, what the right answer is. He says a booming economy, you know, shouldn't be something that you have to step on. It's a little bit like when a parent tells you, you can, you know, go wherever you want for your holiday. But, you know, your old room is here at home. And it's always great to have you here. And that, you know, you kind of hear the answer that you think you need to give.

And that is a little bit what it felt was going on there in the reception this afternoon. And finally, you know, we have to mention that the Fed that Kevin Worse walks into is sharply divided. and leaning more hawkish, as we were reminded again this morning with Chris Waller and his commentary. I mean, how do you think Fed chair Warsh deals with all of that? Well, that's a great point, Scott. So Warsh wants to scrap the forward guidance, the outlook speeches. You know, there's a question, will he submit a dot in the June SEP, his interest rate projection? If we go back to what Greenspan did, that's doable.

The Fed has changed how it talks before. But I think there's scar tissue behind all of the tools the Fed has used over the last 20 years, the guidance, the dot plan. It got built for reasons, often after silence burned them. And I think you saw that today. You know, can Kevin Warsh tell people like Chris Waller, hey, I don't want you to go out and give an outlook speech in every intermeeting cycle because that's what Warsh has been doing for the last, sorry, Waller has been doing for the last four years.

And I think the market is going to listen to those people. I mean, it's going to be hard to silence Chris Waller, and people are going to listen to him. So I think that's the tension there. You can stop talking. You could stop doing press conferences. But if everybody goes on CNBC and gives interviews, you know, the Friday after the meeting, you have to wonder, well, what really is changing about that. Well, we shall see. Nick, thanks so much for the time.

Appreciate your insights very much. Nick Timrose, the Wall Street Journal. I'll turn back to all of you. How are you thinking about? what a worse-led Fed means for the markets. That's interesting. I don't think it's 96 or 99. I think it's fundamentally earlier than 96.

Only 8.7% of S&P or top 3,000 U.S. equities or even getting AI revenue. So it's earlier than 96 as a comparison on the fundamentals, and it's probably 97 or 98 on the stock prices. So I think it's neither of those two things, and I think there's plenty of fundamentals to come. And that's why the market's resilient, because it knows that the runway fundamentally

is not that late in the cycle. How would you answer? I think he's not going to be able to cut rates. And I think he, we know that he wants to reduce the balance sheet, which I do think is healthy, but I think it's going to be really hard for him to do that in an environment where you can't cut rates. So I think he's going to be a little bit stuck for a while. There's not enough time left in this segment for me to comment on everything I agree

with what Nictra said, obviously. I would say very quickly, you talk to these guys privately. No one likes the dot plot. No one can justify its existence. I don't know how quickly. The Fed chair himself. Yeah. on his way out the door in the last news conference after the final meeting of his tenure,

made that point himself. There's been a lot of discussion about the forward guidance's relevance in the type of environment we're in as compared to then. That's the first thing. The second thing is we keep talking about a rate cut as if there's no shot. They're reducing interest rates anytime soon, months and months and months and months and months. So I think we could dispel with that entirely for now. From an investment standpoint, I think originally, to tie the segment up, you hit the right point on the head, which is the AI story.

And we've talked about this ad nauseum, is so dominant for investors right now from Eaton to Givrin over, et cetera. The Fed has largely become, at the moment and afterthought and changing Fed chair, the type of stuff he's going to do is long lasting. It's going to take a year to do X. It's going to take a year to do Y. In the short term, this doesn't really matter very much of all. With all due respect to the incoming and now the new Fed Sheriff, we don't talk about you for a while, and we don't talk about the central bank's policy,

don't hold it against us. The market's just fixated with something else. We'll see at the next meeting. I did like the Bernanke not in the room. That was a juicy little tidbit. I think about the only time I've had an in the room comment in the last two years, it was notice who was in Trump's room at the inauguration ceremony, and it was all the MAG 7 CEOs, how old they've done since that.

So maybe the room thing's got something to it. the moon and beyond, figuratively and literally. Exactly. My favorite part was when Powell ducked. That was my favorite part. All right, guys. I appreciate it. I enjoyed the conversation.

We'll see you a very soon. Have you a long weekend. another day, another surge for quantum computing stocks. Kristina Parts and Nelos joins us now with more. Hi there. exact size or structure of the government's position. You have D-Wa, Regetti, inflection that have said their full awards will be equity investments, but beyond that, details are pretty thin. Jeffries notes that the initial market reaction to government equity announcements has been positive. Take Intel as an example. But they're saying over a longer horizon returns diverge with no clear pattern.

A senior commerce official told the Wall Street Journal they deliberately spread their bets just across those nine companies, acknowledging that the technology could take years to pan out. The deals, though, still need to be finalized, but the market, as you can see, doesn't seem to be waiting, Scott. All right, Christina, thanks, Christina, parts and nevertheless. Now to see Mamoti for a look at the biggest names. Moving into the close today. Hi there. Hey, Scott, we've got our eye on shares of Uber, lower on a Bloomberg report, that the company is exploring a full takeover of delivery hero.

It comes a few days after Uber doubled its stake in the German food company delivery to almost 20%. So that is one thing investors are debating with shares down about 2%. In the meantime, Esté Lauder shares are higher after the company confirmed it ended merger talks with Spanish beauty company Pugged. S.A. Lauder shares. Selling off in March when the company confirmed the talks as investors became somewhat concerned about potential share dilution and a distraction from its overall turnaround plans. Stock currently up about 11.5 percent. And Zoom shares in the green after posting better than expected earnings and revenue than had previously been fear. The video conferencing platform also upping its outlook and its bets on AI up paying off here with the stock.

up about 9% Scott. All right, Seema, thanks. Sima Modi. We're just getting started here. Up next, higher energy prices here for the long haul. We discuss ahead of this holiday travel weekend live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching closing bell on CNBC. New record high for the Dow

today ahead of the holiday weekend, a weekend in which millions of Americans will hit the road and face higher gas prices. Our contested Brewer joins us now with more on that story. Hi there. Hi there, Scott. You know, AAA expect some 45 million Americans to travel this holiday weekend. Most of them driving and paying

nearly a buck and a half more per gallon on average than they did this time last year. We eke out a new record about Memorial Day travelers by a hair. We haven't seen, though, year-over-year holiday travel growth this flat in a decade. Sojourn, the Travel Intelligence Company says Memorial Day hotel bookings across the U.S. are down nearly 8% year-over-year. National bookings down more than 10%. And its data shows that travelers are not downsizing. They're just sitting out trips altogether. Bank of America's summer travel forecast said 40% of lower income households don't have any travel plans at all.

And their credit card data shows their travel spending is down year over year. That might explain why Reno, Nevada is making Trip Advisors' Top 5 Memorial Day destinations, or Prescott, Arizona is making expedias. On the other hand, MGM told me its Las Vegas hotels are fully booked thanks, they say, to Korean superstar boy band BTS. So if you've got the money, you're spending it. B of A says it's really these middle and upper echelon travelers who are spending more on their trips this year than last year, Scott. Yeah, like the top of the K-shaped. Petessa, thank you very much, Contessa Brewer.

The real question now is, are higher energy prices here to stay? and if so for how long. Stephen's joining us now with that side of the story. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Scott. Well, energy markets seem to be settling into a higher for longer scenario, which is driving up costs for a range of industries. Americans have already spent an additional $40 billion on fuel since the war began,

or about $300 per household. But if we look across regions and refined petroleum products, City estimates the combined total is more in the range of an additional $2 trillion spent since the start of the war. Now, the impact stretch. far beyond just pump prices, given oil and gas, are building blocks for more than 6,000 consumer products. The two key inputs are propane and ethane, which are produced alongside oil and gas, and for the most part, their price globally. If and when there is a finalized deal between

the U.S. and Iran, we will no doubt see a very large drop in oil, but it could be a long time before we see the pre-Hormuz $60 level. The big reason is that inventories will need to be refilled following rapid worldwide depletion, meaning, Scott, that higher prices seem to be here to stay. All right, Pippa, thanks. Pippa, Steven. Still ahead, the former Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher. What is he expecting from the Warsh-led Fed? What does he think about Fed independence?

Is it alive and well, wounded? Tell us next. I want Kevin to be totally independent. I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don't look at me. Don't look at anybody. Just do your own thing and do a great job. Kevin Worse sworn in today as the 17th chairman of the Federal Reserve pledging to bring reforms to the institution.

Richard Fischer's, the former Dallas Fed President, Jeffrey's Senior Advisor, joins us now on what all of this means. Great to have you on this day. Is Fed Independence alive and well? Is it wounded? How would you assess it as Kevin Warsh takes the helm? Well, I hope it's alive and well. It needs to be alive and well. The Federal Reserve needs to operate without any political interference from either side of the aisle

and do what it's supposed to do. And I thought Kevin actually laid it out pretty well in his acceptance. It's an independent body and it has a mission. There are going to be some changes he'll try to bring about and take him some time under his leadership. But clearly that was a statement about independence. And if he doesn't live up to that or if the market perceives that he's going to work on behalf of the president, then I think the markets will react very negatively, and he's obviously well aware of that. I mean, he talks about a reform-oriented Fed. What does that mean? Is there a danger that he goes

too far in trying to reform this institution that you used to serve on? Well, I don't know. He hasn't really articulated that fully thus far. I agree with him, by the way, on the dot plot. That's an exercise I always found rather silly. and gave a speech about it based on Dr. Zeus called Out Out, Damn Dot, but we've stuck with it nonetheless. And he probably will try to do less press conferences than has been done recently by most recent chairman and also the one before him. So as to reform, I'm not sure exactly what he means. And we'll just have to watch and see. Speaking of Fed chairs who have come before Kevin Worse, as Nick Timmeros pointed out a short time ago,

and I don't know if you heard this or not. And I didn't realize myself that Ben Bernanke, who was Fed share when Mr. Worse was governor, one of on the Fed, wasn't in the room today. And he went out of his way to single out Alan Greenspan. I'm wondering what you think that signifies about his views on the kind of Fed he wants to have, even in moments of crisis when he was in the room

where it happened when something, the Fed, in part with others, helped save the world. Yeah, Kevin was there for almost five years of my 10. He never objected to where the chairman was going or where the committee was going. He never dissented. And also, he really made its mark by being very helpful to Ben Bernanke, to interpret Wall Street for him, and took a lot of credit for that. And yet Ben Bernanke hasn't said one word about him that I'm aware of.

of since he was appointed. So here's the point. Kevin's got a very good personality. He's got good people skills. He's going to have to work very hard to cover some wounds that he inflicted on the Fed. And it'll take him some time to do so, both to the bank presidents, also some of the other governors. And we'll have to see how long it takes him to overcome some of those wounds that were inflicted by him. But I think he will do a decent job long term.

Again, it was pointed out today. It's only 56. He's got a long-term road ahead of him. He'll have to do what's right to protect defense independence and to meet its dual mandate. And I think he's got some help now from Waller, but also from the exiting chairman who's going to stand for a couple of months. The committee's not going to be willing to move to where the president wants it. And I think the president, for most part, appreciates that. That's what he's been saying recently.

It's interesting. You raise, you know, a critical issue. He takes over, does Warsh, and as you sort of allude to, an offended, offended Fed by virtue of some of the things that Worse himself has said in the past. But he also takes over an extraordinarily divided and certainly more hawkish fed that he probably expected he'd be walking into when he was first nominated for this job. Yeah. And the circumstances. change. As you know, I was probably the biggest talk on that committee. I think it's time not to move, but to be biased towards hawkishness until we exorcise all the inflation from the system that's being built in due to the tariffs. And now the momentum that's gaining. If you, if you look at the earnings reports like the big companies, Walmart today or this morning, they were making it very clear. They're not going to be able to hold back much longer.

And that affects one of the broadest arrays of consumerism. So, again, that's the circumstance he's going to have to deal with. And by the way, he's going to have to win over the whole committee. There are 19 people on the committee. He's won the most important one. But if you can't get the other 18 to go with him, it's going to take time. But you point to something that we need to consider as well in terms of the kinds of reforms that Warsh may make.

try and make is measuring inflation in a different way that doesn't take as seriously into consideration something like a jump in oil prices or the closure of the straight as prior feds and fed chairs may. That may be part of the reform process should be looking through that and arguing that you can actually cut. You can actually be too restrictive now, even if you think oil prices, are going to remain here for a little while. Does that hold any water with you? I don't know. It's a tough one because, first of all, let's remember Arthur Burns had reduced all the Bayer Rules he was going to look at inflation to two.

And those two, obviously, were not enough, and they led to the great inflation that we had. I appreciate his looking at the downstream mean. That was perfected while I was there. It's an interesting guidance tool, and he's referred to that in his testimony. But he's got to be careful not to make it look like he's just going by, you know, the seat of his pants. There's got to be some analysis behind it. And unfortunately, and I used to argue this at the Fed. By the time we got data, it's old.

I think Kevin's right on that. The question is, how do you look forward? And what Alan Greenspan did enormously well, because he gave me the list at when he left. he had 52 business leaders of all sizes around the country, and that's where he got most of his guidance from. By the way, the best forecaster of 52, which included every major corporate head in America around the country, was a dry cleaner in Connecticut with only 11 employees. So, Alan would talk to people in the field, and I think if Kevin wants to do that, that's very, very helpful. That's what the banks are for. They respond and give them that information at the committee meetings.

So he's going to have to be respectful to the banks, listen carefully. He's going to have to talk to his own people and form judgments on that basis. It'll be tough. All right. Well, we're going to have to continue to talk to you about this. There's no doubt about that. We'll have many more conversations. I look forward to all of them.

Richard, thanks. Thank you, Scott. Richard Fisher. Coming up next, the biggest movers, as we head into this holiday weekend. Simomodi is back forth with that. What do you say? We're 15 minutes till we're. there, Scott, and the Dow is currently in record high territory. We're going to break down

where investors are placing their bets going into the long weekend. That's after this short break. Close to 10 to go before the closing bell back now to see Momody for a look at the stocks to watch. Hi there. Hey, Scott, let's start with shares of IMAX, which are soaring Wall Street Journal reporting in the premium theater company is exploring a sale. A source familiar with a company telling CBC it has held preliminary talks through intermediaries, but no official pitches have been made by AMA. Shares are up 15%. In the meantime, Merck also in the green after saying it's lung cancer treatment made with a Chinese biotech company cut tumor progression risk by 65% in a phase-through study. Shares up more than 5% currently

its best day since October. And BJ shares are sinking despite reporting better than expected Q1 results. Investors likely concerned about the retailer's over reliance on fuel sales, excluding the metric the company would have posted same store sales below expectations. We're watching the stock at this hour down about 8%. percent. Okay. All right, Sima. Appreciate that very much. That's Sima Modi. Coming up, we'll tell you what's behind the move in Dell. We're back after this. We're now in the closing bell market zone. Mike Santoli and Newberger's Shannon Sikosha are here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, Oliver Renick standing by live from the Cibo Global Markets in Chicago, taking a look at CryptoForice and Christina Parts of Nevelos is tracking the action in Dell. And there is plenty. Michael, I'll turn to you first. We're going to go out this week with a new high for the Dow. We will. New high for the Dow, obviously moving the chains for another week forward on the S&P 500.

Definitely slowed down a fair bit. And, you know, it's not exactly one of these runaway rallies. It's much more kind of upward drift summertime mode, which is, you know, more stocks up than down, but not by a huge margin. If you thought that it was going to be treasury yields and oil breaking out that might actually cause that whole process to get interrupted, that didn't happen this. week. They're both somewhat off the boil. So I think it's, you know, generally positive. The VIX below 17 shows you the market's getting comfortable in this kind of upward grind mode, maybe trying out summertime behaviors here. But, you know, we'll see. You've come a long way in a while. It's another 1% higher from here. And as I've been saying, it's a 20% jump off the lows of March 30th.

Take us a while to get our arms around, I guess, a Warsh-led Fed, see what it really means. Moving forward, how do you feel about that? And then let us know what you're going to tackle about five minutes or so in overtime. Look, I think there's a luxury here in that the data and the committee structure are telling you that nobody, including the markets, expect any kind of a rate action soon. So you're not there with an immediate mandate to do something major. And so wait and see and get acclimated is enough for now. I don't think the bond market had a super dramatic reaction. Obviously, to react at the Waller's comments today. So we flattened out, two-year yield higher, all that kind of thing. But I,

I also think there's plenty of time before any move is expected for him to make clear how he wants to proceed. We'll see what the dot plot looks like next month. And we'll see if the market's right about starting to price in at least the potential for a tightening move later this year. It's so far out. I don't think that there's really a lot of conviction behind that pricing. Who knows? And we actually have somebody from NASDAQ private markets here. We've got all these IPOs rushing out here.

He's going to talk about some other initiatives they have in terms of allowing people to on the value of still private companies. All right, good stuff. I was going to say, we may never say the words dot plot again. Who knows? We'll see what FedShare-Worse does. Mike, thanks. Appreciate that.

Oliver, Sebo, tell us. Yeah, Scott, I'm looking at Bitcoin today. Maybe those hikes getting priced in are hurting the crypto space, but BTC is down another $1,400 bucks today, and Michael's Sailor Strategy, MSTR, is down 2.5%. That's not particularly news. Bitcoin's down 30% in the past 52 weeks, while the S&P is the exact opposite.

it up 30%. And it's not that options are particularly bearish. It's actually that options traders don't seem to care. Implied volatility in the Bitcoin ETF, IBIT slipped below 40 today and all-time low since options started trading on the product 18 months ago. And get this, the biggest trade in MSTR today was someone selling an at-the-money call spread. That is the options version of apathy, Scott. Crypto Bulls might spin lower volatility as a good thing, catch-es volatility was kind of the point for Bitcoin. Stocks go up. It goes up more, except lately stocks go up. It still goes down. All right. Oliver, thank you very much. All right, Christina, tell us why Dell's moving the way it is. Oh, there's several reasons. Moving the way it is,

it's hitting an all-time high ahead of earnings next Thursday. Three major catalysts coming together all at once. Lenovo reported blowout earnings overnight with AI-related revenue jumping 84% and that's lifting the entire PC and server complex. HpQQ also got up double digits, super micro, you can see climbing higher. Then we saw a wave of Wall Street upgrades. Wells Fargo raised its Dell target to $270 bucks from 180. City, J.P. Morgan, Mizzuho, all height targets just over the last little while. Mazuho, the street height, 300 bucks.

And then you had momentum from Dell Technologies World in Las Vegas just earlier this week. The CEO saying enterprises have moved from AI experimentation to deploying agenetic systems. The company showed off new liquid-cooled servers built on NVIDIA. Rubin architecture, and they said that more than 5,000 customers are now deploying their AI factory solutions. So no wonder, that is why shares are up so dramatically just over the last week, 136 percent year-to-date so far. All right, Christina, thanks so much for that. All right, Chan, we've got two minutes to go. Your thoughts as we head into a weekend and what next week might hold. Well, I think we saw some moves this week, obviously, on the potential of her

further de-escalation and resolution in Iran. And I think that's going to continue to move the markets next week, Scott. We also saw some glimmers of hope, if you will, in the software sector from earnings over the last couple of days. And that's been, you know, sort of a much maligned sector, if you will, over the course of the last couple of months. And so with NVIDIA now behind us and some continued momentum as it relates to software, wouldn't be surprised next week to see a little bit more broadening to perhaps an acknowledgement that maybe these inflationary concerns are likely to come off the boil. but more importantly, we are going to be watching rates. And I think as long as the 10-year is continuing to press higher,

I think that will become more of a concern for the equity market, particularly if we move into June and we don't have the strait showing signs of reopening. Funny, the market's moving past it. Dow new intraday high. Excuse me, intraday high. What does that mean to you with less than 30 seconds to go? Again, I think that we're still enjoying the enthusiasm from earnings, and it's justified. It was an excellent earning season. There's clearly growth in the economy.

What could derail that longer-term escalation in the straight? But more importantly, watch that rate narrative because we'd like to see the tenure ease into next week. Certainly, if we see some de-escalation. All right. We'll talk to you soon. Shana's a closer. Thanks so much for that. Market. Bell's going to ring, and it's going to ring in a new intraday high once again for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We got the 50,830 today. It goes below that, but nonetheless, we will mark yet another record. And today we swear in, a new Fed's Fair.