Closing Bell - Closing Bell: The Resilient Rally 10/28/25

Episode Date: October 28, 2025

Stocks hit new records yet again. We discuss the road ahead for the rally with our all star panel – Trivariate’s Adam Parker, New York Life’s Lauren Goodwin and Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank’s Chris Hyzy. Plus, Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo just upped his price target on one of his favorite names. He tells us which one and why. And, Oz Pearlman – the Wall Street Mentalist – brings his talents back to Post Nine and reads the minds of Scott Wapner and Brandon Gomez.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian, thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wobner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make-a-breakout begins with AI optimism, lifting stocks and even more record highs. Take a look at the scorecard here with 60 to go. In regulation, we have had a nice build throughout the day in what really has been a tech-driven rally. Apple topping 4 trillion and market cap finally coming earlier today. Invidia, higher as well.

By now you know that story. CEO Jensen Wong making news today during his keynote in D.C. We'll have all of the details and the very latest coming up, that stock at the highs of the day. And how about Microsoft also topping $4 trillion in market cap today after solidifying its relationship with OpenAI, that company transitioning into a traditional for-profit enterprise, a street liking that too. And of course, we are awaiting those mega-cap earnings. They begin in about 24 hours. Tomorrow is going to be big.

Those are the three companies on the plate. We'll talk about all of that, which takes us to our talk at the table. this amazingly resilient rally, hitting new records yet again today. For how long it can last, we welcome in our all-star panel, CNBC contributor, Trivaryate Researches, Adam Parker, New York Life's Lauren Goodwin, Merrill, and Bank of America, Private Banks, Chris Heisey. It is great to have everybody with us. The story seems to me, Adam, that we tried to close above $6,800, and we finally got there like a day ago. And now we're, we could close above $6,900 today.

Trying to figure out why Nvidia and Microsoft invest in every company except for Trivariant. We hooked that up. Can we get a little, a couple billion extra on the valuation? Got to sell it harder, man. Yeah, what's going on here? Look, I did this risk dinner last week with a bunch of people whose jobs it is to manage and position for risk. And I couldn't get anyone to come with a near-term negative, you know, view. It's just the pillars of this sort of dream of AI productivity and the dove escue to the Fed.

And it's like anything that's run into those pillars just kind of falls on the ground. So people are worried about a bunch of things, but they don't think. Like what? Like what are even the things that they're worried about? Maybe there's some problem with the jobs data. Like anything that you throw out, you know, I tried to throw everything and everything just fell on the ground. The fact of the matter is S&B earrings are higher now than they were four months ago, both for this year and next year. And I think people are expecting a pretty good earning season. As you mentioned, we got 5 MAG 7 and Visa and MasterCard.

We got a bunch of stuff coming. So I think people's view is we end higher. And their only concern is, am I just a giant AI factor bet in my book? And how do I, you know, kind of diversify from that just in case we get, you know, kind of a nasty rotation at some point? Yeah. I mean, 300 or so S&P points ago, Tom Lee was with me. He was like, we could go to 7,000 before the end of the year, easy. And I was like, really?

And now he's sitting back. and saying, yes, Scott, I told you and I told everybody else because the things that that Adam said, there's so many perceived positives behind this market. It's hard to get in the way of that. It's right. And one that I'd add to the list is that even if we saw a pullback in liquidity, which I don't think is likely, even if we saw a spook in AI, which I don't think is likely, we have a fiscal backdrop that wants to see growth, that wants to see rates lower. And it's hard to handicap that. It's hard to say that that's going to do anything. to get in the way of this market, do anything but put a tailwind on this market. Now, I think

that the calculus of market enthusiasm, the liquidity that we're seeing, the benign inflation, no real concerns about the consumer, that can turn in the new year. But I don't think there's anything other than the earnings this week that could get in the way of a market rally through the end of the year. Basically two and a half months to go. Is there anything that gets in the way of this? Well, I think we get in our own way half the time. You know, Adam talked about nobody nobody's really looking at things that aren't so positive. I'm not going to take the full other side of that, Adam, but I'll say that every single conversation I have

is still is X, Y, or Z in a bubble. They're still on guard. So you can climb this wall of worry that's in the head. For a long time. For a long time. And as long the fundamentals that Lauren said about profits continue to surprise to the upside, then the on-guard nature is just in the way.

mind, but not actually in the allocating capital. I mean, all you need is Jensen Wong goes on the stage in D.C., you know, within the last couple of hours, and he makes some headlines and take a look at the stock. It's representative of where we are. You make some announcements. We will see where it all leads. NVIDIA is above 200 bucks a share, almost 5%. Christina Partinevoloz has been there all day.

Witness that, just did the interview. it's remarkable really that the stock can keep climbing yeah there I was bets being taken like how long is it going to take to be hit a five trillion dollar company I think the narrative at GTC here today is twofold specifically around geopolitics there seems to be a lot of bullish commentary about what's to come from the

China US talks and we know that Nvidia has pretty much zero percent revenue coming from China it's been modeled out of sell side analyst expectations and the sentiment here today is that there might be actually some good news coming from Thursday. Obviously, we don't have a crystal ball, and nobody here wants to front-run the president, but I was just surprised at that positive commentary.

So what does this mean? Does this mean that AMD could start shipping even more to China? Does that mean Nvidia could? If that is the case, you'd be adding a lot back into these models, which would further increase the price, maybe why you're also seeing share above $200. The other big thing is the displacement of workers from AI.

It's hard when you're at an event like this, Of course, everybody's going to be super bullish, right? It's their technology that is potentially destroying some people's livelihoods and their jobs. But Alex Karp, the CEO of Palantir, we just spoke earlier, and he was very passionate saying that we need to bring back manufacturing here to the United States. And for middle America, middle class America, that that's an opportunity for them in the workforce. I know it's not exactly the same if you've lost a job at Deloitte or Booz Allen, but they seem to think that there's ample amount of jobs.

just going to be shifted and so that was two of the major themes of course you've got all of the announcements quantum working with Uber working with Palantir working with Crowdstrike working with Nokia which is why you saw the shares of all of these names higher quantum on your screen lower because in video did announce that they're going to be working with several science labs across the United States more integrated and so perhaps that scares those investors of the quantum names adding to the sell-off but overall these events are going to be positive no matter what and the

stocks are reflecting that, going and coming out of it, I should say. Yeah. Christina, thank you. Christina parts of neveless. I mean, all Jensen Wong has to do these days, I'm simplifying it, obviously, is standing on a stage with the leather on, right? Everybody gets all hyped up, and he talks about what NVIDIA is going to do and who they're going to be, and you bid the stock up another 5%. There is that, it's representative of the optimism around AI when we still aren't exactly sure when we're going to get the full monetization of all of this spending and things like that. It doesn't matter. Nobody cares. There's two things. I mean, Chris's point, like, look, I think a lot of more of the euphoria in speculation is like Smith Cap Growth PM than it is S&P. So there's definitely,

if you look at the number of stocks up 100% or more in the last six months, it's really high. It's getting bubbly, profitless stuff. But in the S&P, I don't think that's the case. So I think you could hear more of that down the cap stack. In terms of the real risks I see in the next six months, this week is you will need Goldilocks on the hyperscalor capax. It's got to come up, but it can't come up by so much people start freaking out that, you know, Microsoft's got negative free cash flow or they start borrowing money. If you see a lot, you know, the thing that causes the top of every cycle that I've ever looked at is hubris and debt. Hubris debt.

Hubris debt. That's a cocktail. You get arrogant and you take on debt. And we're still very early days on that. So that's why I think we all collectively agree we got, you know, some sunshine in front of us. But you're certainly seeing Huberson debt, if it were stock, is up off the lows. So we're not there yet, but we've got to monitor that. You don't, I'll take your thing.

You don't want to be Icarus, though, right? You don't want to keep getting this up and get too close to the sunshine. No, you got to watch. Yeah, you got to watch Anthropics revenue. You got to watch Open AIs. There's things to watch. Criticisms I get from people, what about pricing of GPUs getting cut? But so far they've been more than met by demand.

So, you know, you have to monitor these things. But I think the collective wisdom of all the smart institutional investors I know is, It's just somewhere between too early and way too early to get cautious. I'm just going to ask this question, and this is directly in line with what Adam just said, which is, what if this is a flywheel? So if you think about the circular financing and investment relationships that are going on, what if that becomes a flywheel for everybody else's earnings, and that's the monetization that happens? In other words, the industrial sector, the financial sector, and other places that wouldn't have had that momentum in it

if this build-out didn't occur. I'm just asking the question. You're already seeing that. I mean, but that's why we keep bidding up utilities as growth stocks. Exactly. And this is very different than the 99, 2000. We always say 99, but then March of 2000. You also didn't have the, the Fed's actually going the other way

versus raising potential rates like they did back then on top of a pile of debt in the corporate sector. So there's a lot of other things to look at, but I think this flywheel effect is why you're seeing the enthusiasm. Any reason to believe we're not going to, to end this week just as excited as we are going to make the turn midweek? I mean, you know, we're going to get all of the mega-cap earnings but Invidia, but we already have a pretty good idea of what's going on there. We just have to wait three weeks to hear it again in the report,

but you've got all of the biggies over the next few days reporting. What do you think? Yeah, I think I anticipate that we're going to continue to see enthusiasm as we go through this week. And as we think about this complex of sort of circular financing, growing leverage in the system, et cetera, the real top in that does come when the Fed starts to make that more costly, when the run-up in leverage really starts to hurt companies because the cost of that capital is moving high or not lower. And so what's going to dissuade the enthusiasm in this market is probably going to come back to the amount of liquidity and the more accommodative financial conditions that we're seeing.

It's going to be the Fed moving in the opposite direction that it is now. And that is just not, it's certainly not of this week's story with the Fed coming up tomorrow, but it's not a 2025 story as well. I do think that as we look at a accommodative fiscal backdrop, just more and more liquidity getting pushed into this system, enthusiasm around AI CAPEX, that is not a disinflationary story for 2026, probably. But it's even hard to look at a modest uptick in inflation and see a market that's carrying deeply about it when the consumers falling by the wayside.

So, again, I think through the end of the year, we're free and clear. I mean, you've got the Fed, which is going to end the runoff of the balance sheet coming up, right? That takes away quantitative tightening. I'm looking at a story that moved minutes before we came on the air today that J.P. Morgan says they see the Fed reviving the 2019 playbook to ease any market strains within the credit pipelines. So the Fed's going to be engaged. They're going to do whatever they have to do to prevent credit from tightening up in any way. They're cutting interest rates.

They're stopping the runoff of the balance sheet, and you tell me there's a negative within that. All right, I'm going to do to you what you always do to me, right? You know that I'm directionally bullish on the market. I gave it two pillars. But then if I get too positive, you say stuff that's negative.

You just listed off like nine positive things. So you want me to say something negative, right? No, I'm trying to figure out. I mean, look, what's the worry? I mean, if the Fed, is becoming even more engaged around the periphery of rate cuts. I don't believe the worries are going to matter, but I'll articulate what I hear from other people, and you can crap on. Go ahead.

Is that we're doing it? Yeah. All right. I think people are worried about the, she mentioned it, some of the circular lending that's happening. Right. People are worried about the hyperscalor cap-back. So you need to see it come up. Okay.

You need to believe that that's going to continue to grow at a healthy rate. Right. sort of pause on that path. If you don't indicate capuses coming next year, people could kind of say, I need more proofcases on that flywheel for six months. That's why some say the whole thing. That's a real concern. I mean, I'm not saying it's going to happen this week, but it will at some point. I mean, you do hear that, that the, you know, most of the economic activity is around AI spend. Yep. That's where all of the juice is coming from. And it's all consumer digital advertising is more than half of it. Like we need, the consumer isn't

totally irrelevant in the equation, totally. It's a great point. So you've got the is in a capex boom and the sea is still solid and healthy there's a lot of questions around that but our data suggests the consumer still solid and healthy and you see it in travel leisure and entertainment spending and you're just not stopping and you're gonna people believe we were just doing the bear case we weren't saying we believed it well but it's hard it's hard it's hard it's hard it's people find it hard to lay that out now you could say well what happens what happens if you know China and the U.S. and, you know, miles apart, but is, is that really likely? Is it? Because they're, you know, we just could be complacently about everything.

Tariffs. Everyone I know says, Taco, we're never going to do a real thing with China. That's like that's not, like, you go down the list of concerns and they just get rid of them all. You know, you know why they get rid of them all? Right. They get rid of them all. Because it mattered. Well, because there are reports today, by the way, surfacing that President Trump and China's President Xi are going to discuss lowering tariffs. Right.

Amen Javvers joins us now with those details. What can you tell us? Hey there, Scott. Yeah, the Wall Street Journal out with some reporting this afternoon on possible concessions that each side might make if the U.S. and China do come to a trade deal this week. Now, officials have not confirmed these details to CNBC, but the journal reports that the U.S. would roll back fentanyl tariffs back from 20 to as low as 10% if Beijing cracks down on exporting fentanyl precursor ingredients. The paper cites people familiar with the talks for those details. Now, the meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is slated for late Wednesday evening U.S. time. And in the run-up to that, the president's been holding face-to-face meetings with leaders of Asian nations setting up a framework agreements that he hopes are going to buttress U.S. economic relationships in the region. He spoke to a group of business leaders in Tokyo this morning that included Apple's Tim Cook, soft bank CEO Masioshi-son, sales force CEO Mark Benial. and others, the president touted a number of business development deals and said they're going

to benefit American workers. Earlier, he flew to the aircraft carrier USS George Washington with Japanese Prime Minister Sane Takeichi, where they inspected American fighter jets and the president greeted American troops. President Trump, Scott, also joking on this trip that he wants Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to take over the Federal Reserve, but he said that Besson wants to stay at Treasury. He did not tip his hand, though, about who he is ultimately going to select, Scott. Beckerview. I know. I saw that too. And then, you know, he did also say, well, I'm not really considering him. So, you know, you never, you never know. It's a juicy headline that makes that, we think, we think. Amen, thanks. We think. 80% of joke. Yeah, that's

Amon Jarvis. I mean, President likes to win. President likes to say he won, whether, you know, there's a lot of substance behind whatever deal comes out of the child. China thing. One has to believe, based on these headlines, that it's going to end in a far better place than it's been, right? From the Liberation Day, you know, 3,000 percent tariffs down to whatever we're going to end with. That's why the minute the market gets so negative, what happened two or three Fridays ago, right? You remember that? That was all about China. Right. And what happened over the weekend a day later, president says, it's all going to work out just fine. Yeah, I think everyone's complacency is merited. It is complacent. I agree.

And I think there's other things that could go, right? I was trying to type in on the polymarket, the probability Besson goes fed while we were doing this, but I didn't have the skills. But, you know, look, at this wrist dinner, I was telling you last week, there was somebody who was making an argument that the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire probability has gone from 4% to 15% in the polymarket. Like, other positive things could happen. You know, so I'm not, you know, I was just trying to, I did a bad job of playing you in the you versus me thing is what we just exposed. I understand.

It can't be you. uncomfortable to be in a position where you're just ticking down the list of all these positives. It just makes people uncomfortable. Like you're missing something or you feel too complacent. But maybe that's just where we are. No, it's especially uncomfortable when valuations are at these levels and they just keep climbing. We are trained and I think it's responsible as investors to try to look for those bumps in the night. And as we look at the positives, the fiscal backdrop, the AI backdrop, the geopolitical backdrop,

becoming a little easier, et cetera, those positives, I do think, win the day. Where we're seeing some interesting opportunities, a couple of things we're focused on. One, as Chris mentioned, the consumer looks pretty healthy, but it is bifurcated. And as that lower-income consumer continues to experience pain as the cycle elongates, that can cause trouble in things like the auto sector, and we're starting to see elements of that. Do I think that becomes a big systemic risk? No, but that is where we start to see security selection. high quality and your credit picks, et cetera, become more and more important. I also think the geopolitical backdrop, what sort of China and the U.S. are both trying to do

is more or less an AI arms race. There will be ebbs and flows in that conversation, but it's one that is likely to result in fragmentation of systems we're used to. That is why I'm seeing more and more investors' institutional retail think twice about diversification. It's something that we, you know, it's sort of investment best practice, but people haven't taken seriously as growth equities climb and climb and climb and climb, I'm seeing that shift. Last and quick to you, I mean, retail's been leaning in. Retail's been right. Retail's been right.

Retail's a little bit more discipline that people give them credit for. There's cash coming in. How about just use the word smarter? What's that? How about use the word smarter? Smarter, more diligent, more disciplined. And we see it all the time. Final point is this. I like a long list of positives, by the way. I don't mind being guarded, but celebrating the positives good thing. But also, no one's talking about the 10-year. The 10-year fell below 4%. It was at 5. Everybody was worried that if the Fed's going to cut, the 10-year is going to go up like it did the first time they cut. We'll be talking about it a lot tomorrow, right? When they do their expected cut. And then we have Jeffrey Gunlock on the other side of the Fed share to do our

monthly interview. And we'll be talking a lot about the tenure. I can promise you. Thank you guys. Good to see you. That was fun. All right, we're just getting started. Coming up next, trading the financials, the number one bank analyst, Mike Mayo, ups his price target on a key name in that group. He'll tell you which one and why after the break. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bill on CNBC. Welcome back.

Our next guest was just named the top large cap bank analyst on Wall Street for the sixth year in a row. He just upped his price target, too, on one of his favorite names. He is Mike Mayo, and he is with Wells Fargo. securities he is here at post nine six in a row congratulations thank you must be good at what you do i i guess so your top pick i'm gonna i'm gonna save a little bit until we get to your price target raise your city is your first second and third top choice city just trying to be funny no a city group is my dominant number one pick it's been my dominant number one pick this

year it remained my dominant number one pick it's a kind of like almost like a once-in-generation restructuring for Citigroup that I finally think has legs and can carry them for the next several years. Well, I mean, what have they done so spectacularly well under Jane Frazier? What has she done that has you so, so, so positive on a singular name in the group? Well, I think you have to understand the stock versus the company. City Group still has worst in class returns, efficiency, and stock market valuation. And they still have a best in class global payments business. It moves $5 trillion of money around, you know, every day. They have a top five global investment bank. They're top three in credit cards. They have this phenomenal franchise that they're finally

beginning to monetize. Not yet, but I see a path over the next couple years. Not yet. I mean, the stock's up 43 and almost 44% year to date. They have single digit returns. They have a regulatory consent order. The efficiency is horrific. So yeah, the stock's up on the expectations this will transpire, but it hasn't happened yet. And frankly, Scott, that's why I, I was upset that the CEO, Jane Frazier, got a retention bonus last week. I'm like, maybe, but at least get double-digit returns, at least resolve your regulatory batters, and at least let the year end before that happens. So I think she'll succeed, but I don't think she should get an expert bonus yet.

Why is J.P. Morgan number five on your list? Kramer was talking about it earlier, suggesting it could be a trillion dollars, the next trillion-dollar company. Well, their market caps already over $800 billion, so I do think J.P. Morgan becomes a trillion-dollar market cap. bank. Look, Scott, my theme is Goliath is winning. J.P. Morgan is the Goliath of Goliath, and scale and brand make more difference than ever before. J.P. Morgan spends $18 billion a year on technology alone. You know what? That equals the entire expense base of the fifth largest bank. So it's the Goliaths, whether it's city, my number one pick, J.P. Morgan, or Bank America. You've been invited to their new headquarter building yet?

Not yet. I think their investor conference next year, I hope to see it. That's why you're That's why you have them on number five. You're offended. All right. The price target you raised was, last but not least, Bank of America. Why? Bank of America is having their first investor day for the Wall Street community in 15 years. That's next Wednesday.

I think it's about time they post an increase of return target. They've had 14% returns this decade. I think their new target will be between 16 and 18%. I think they'll give new targets for efficiency. and I think they're going to give a roadmap on how they're going to lean into growth and better monetize this unique franchise that they have. I mean, before you even hear anything, though, you're just bumping it up by a couple bucks. Why don't you just wait?

Well, we had up our earnings estimates with third quarter earnings, and so our price target increase is consistent with that. Now, for you day traders out there, I mean, this could be a sell-the-news event. The stock's outperformed recently, but I'm looking out over the next 12 months, and I think you'll have more meat on the bones on why Bank America should be able to grow faster and with higher returns than in the past. Why has Bank of America stock underperformed

all the others year to date? Because it's not even close. Why? It's the capital markets business at, you know, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan has outperformed. Bank America's wealth management business has underperformed some peers.

And I think investors are saying it's kind of like the forgotten Goliath, the bank stocks, and that's one reason I think they're having that investor. to remind you that they are top two in U.S. consumer, that they're, you know, top five in global investment banking, one of the leading wealth firms. So we'll see a week from Wednesday. You let us know what you think after you hear the news from that event. Mike Mayo, thank you, and congrats again. Thank you.

On the honor, six straight year. Still ahead, star retail analyst, Matthew Boss. He breaks out his 2026 playbook. He also was just named the Top Dog on the Street. We'll talk to him coming up. Welcome back. I want to give you a quick market check. There it is. The S&P 500 is above 6,900, going for its first ever close above that level. The NASDAQ having a very big day today, of course, because of NVIDIA and some other names, both Microsoft and Apple, getting above $4 trillion in market cap. And also a name we're keeping on our eyes on today, Wayfair, surging after reporting an 8% jump in revenue, beating S&D&E,

on both the top and the bottom line. That stock, as you see, is surging up almost 24%. Coming up next, O's Perlman, better known as the mentalist. He is back. For years, O's has been reading minds of everyone from TV hosts to A-List celebrities. He'll bring his talents right to post-9 after the break. Welcome back. Our next guest is a hacker of brains. Mentalist O's Pearlman often knows what you're thinking before you do. He's turned that skill into a big business and now a new book.

Read Your Mind aims to teach others how to succeed by using the human brain as a weapon. He's here now at Post 9 to tell. us and show us exactly how. It's good to have you back. Thank you, Scott. Thank you for having me. Congratulations on the book. Appreciate it. So a business leader picks up this book and you want them to learn what? So I want to tell you what you're not going to learn, which is you've seen me on CNBC year after year after year, blowing your minds, entertaining you. I am not teaching you how to become a mentalist. Spoiler alert. And here's why. That is not useful to almost anyone on the planet, minus 99.99% of people who don't become mentalist. What I do want to teach you to do,

is how to read people more effectively and use the skills that you see me, but instead of as an entertainer in your life at work, dealing with clients, dealing with people you manage, dealing with people at home and in your relationships,

because quite frankly, no one achieves success in a vacuum. It's your relationships with others. You say you can help people shape outcomes. Yes. What does that mean? So that's what I do for a living, right?

I create memorable moments. And I create, what I do is I discern what is the person, watching, thinking, but not to freak them out, not to entertain them, but to create deeper connections. Think about it. Why am I on this network right now? Have you ever seen another magician or mentalist?

Why is that? The network doesn't love me. It's because I custom create content that appeals to the viewers who are watching right now. What I love, one of the things you talk about most importantly in the book is being able to recognize what you're not good at. Absolutely. We all identify things we think we're good at. It's hard to identify the things we're not and to fix it.

Yes. How do you do that? So I think you have to figure out where your weaknesses are. And I think one of the biggest parts in the book is called Proven Habits for Success. What is success? Define your success. So many of us, if I could go back five years ago, 10 years ago, and see what steps got me to where I am today, they were all based on quantifiable goals, defining what those goals were, and every time working towards them. And for so many people, we say, oh, I want to have this much money when I'm 30. I want to be in this position or I'm 40.

Great. That's way too pie in the sky. What's step one, step two, step three, and start mapping out how you're going to do it. Okay. We're not going to let you leave without mentalizing us. Of course. So what's going on? What are you going to do?

Well, I've got some tricks up my sleeve, but I want to tell you a couple more things about this, which is honestly one of the biggest ones. And if you look at this, if you know David Goggins, are you familiar with that name? Incredible Navy SEAL, learn to master the most powerful weapon in your mind. I think that the way people think and knowing how they think allows me to know what they think. Now, let's give a great example. How do I give you the viewer a return on your investment if you buy my book? Not just on your money, but on your time, right?

I want you to have actionable takeaways that you're going to be doing in 10 minutes and still in 10 years. Nothing is left a chance. Somebody watching CNBC wants a good return. How about this? Both of you right now, what are the seven words? Listen closely. Seven words that even if you get a great return this year, who knows about next year? Both of you look me right in the eyes and say it with,

me because I know you've heard it before. Is this a past performance? Past performance does not guarantee future results. Right. My oldest son wrote this himself. The handwriting is not great, but I want you to remember this because this has a very deep meaning. Because nothing is left to chance when I try to get inside your head. And when I say chance, you ready?

Have you ever played the game bingo? Yes. Bingo, right? We have a little bucket full of balls. And I want you to imagine that I am spinning these balls. And Brandon, before I arrived at the New York Stock Exchange today, had we ever met in our lives. Never.

I want you to imagine that right now you reach in with your eyes closed. Close your eyes. Yep. And reach into that bucket and pick up a ball. And then no stop, throw it back. No, change.

Pick up a different one. See? Pick up a different one. Right? As many times you want to change, it doesn't matter to me. And then I want you to grab it and I want you to hold that ball

in your hands and look at it right now. Right? B-I-N-G-O, and there's numbers on them, two digits. He is going to swear up and down. I did not seem to influence you in any way, right? Was this your own random Yes, it was.

Utterly. Don't look. Close your eyes, please. Can you see what I wrote down, Scott? I can. I want to make sure it's not a monitor. Brandon, open your eyes. Look at that ball.

Lucky, lucky, lucky. You feel like you might have just hit bingo. Tell us, what was the letter on that ball? The letter was I. What number? 72. I-72. I don't know.

I don't know. I lose the ability after a while to be so crazily wowed because everything you do has that effect on people. Viewers, watch it back again and see if he thought of it, or I planted the thought. But here's what I want to do. Scott, how many, you know, I snap my fingers, name a sector. Go. Tech. Tech.

There's 11 different sectors. He gave you tech to work with. How many tech stocks do you think you report on in a given day? 20. And in a given month? at least a hundred. The same 20. The same 20.

So imagine. That's kind of the market we're in. That's kind of the market we're in, everybody. Thank goodness. My ETS are still doing strong. Picture this. I want you to picture that you have a ticker. Not on here where I could see.

The ticker's in your mind. You've got a couple stocks, and you're going back and forth, back and forth. And until the moment that I snap my fingers, you do not. Swear to your viewer, you are not going to pick one stock until I snap my fingers. You do not know what you're about to say on live TV. Is that correct? Right. Close your eyes.

Now is when you made the decision on one stock. Open your eyes. You told him the sector. He just picked a stock live on air. Think of the first letter. Keep going until you get to the last letter of the stock in your head. Yep. You did this.

You opened your mouth. You inflected your tongue. You did just enough. Just enough for me to see it. And, listen, it sounds like this. L. The last letter. It's not an L, is it?

The last letter? Last letter. It is. It is an L. Here, folks, here's the thing. I want you to see this because you never know what's going to happen each year, but I will not erase, I will not erase your future earnings because I guarantee future results.

You were thinking of Intel, weren't you? No. No? Hold on, hold on, hold on. I want you to see it sounded like an L. It sounds like an L. Oracle was the stock you were thinking of. Is that right?

It was. And folks, am I right insane? Because look, when this starts to disappear, It looks like everything is gone. Every single one, if you hold that for me, every single one is gone, save for Oracle. And can I be honest, I said Intel. Was that the stock you were debating? You were just about to say Intel instead?

It was the other stock I was thinking of. It was the other stock he was thinking of. And if you know what, if that's what you want, then we will get rid of that as well. And we have Oracle and Intel. Because sometimes, folks, CNBC, you've got to read between lines to get that alpha. No beta here, just alpha. It's just impossible. I just, I don't, I just don't get it.

No, no one else gets it either. You are, you are remarkable. You get it today because the book just came out. Read your mind, pick it up, and you want to know how people think and what they think. This is a competitive advantage that I guarantee you'll be using for years. You are unbelievable. Thanks for coming by. Thank you for having me.

Best of luck with the book. Best of luck in the marathon. Yes, Sunday. How did you know I was running it? I'm a mind-rigger, Brandon. Did you tell him you were? He told me. He told me.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. It's my personality. All right. O's thank you. Thank you. Of course, thanks to you as well. Thanks, Scott.

Up next, we track the biggest movers as we head into the close. Kate Rogers is standing by with that. Hi, Kate. Hi, Scott. Two smartphone suppliers surging today. We'll reveal who after the break. All right, we're less than 15 from the closing bell. Let's get back to Kate Rogers for the stocks that you are watching.

I should have just asked O's which ones you're watching. And then we could have had a heads up and then you could tell us what's happening. That was incredible. I'm still not over it, Scott. But we'll start with JetBlue shares. They're tumbling despite posting a better-than-expected loss in Q3 this morning. Revenue, though, was in line with estimates. UPS surging today after a large beat in Q3 and giving solid Q4 guidance.

The shipping giant was bolstered by strong U.S. package demand. And finally, Skyworks, combining with rival Corvo to create a smartphone supply giant that will focus on the radio frequency chips that go into the phones. Both stocks are up on that news, Scott. Back over to you. All right, Kate, thank you. That's Kate Rogers. Coming up next, check out our mystery chart.

Matt Boss, he is the number one ranked retail analyst on the street. He's betting this stock. We'll see some serious gains next year. He will reveal the name and the rest of his playbook after this. We are now in the closing bell market zone. CNBC senior markets commentator, Mike Santon. is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day, plus J.P. Morgan's Matthew Boss. He gives us his top retail plays. Once again, named the number one retail analyst on Wall Street.

Michael, I begin with you. I don't know. I find it hard to see a market that tries to close above 6,800, and then we're already at 6,900. Yes. At the index level, it continues to do no wrong. I think the aspect of today that's worth noting is how you have everybody crowded into a narrower door. And so it's mostly an Invidia story today. I'm focused largely on the equal weight S&P, on equal weight consumer discretionary, on regional banks, all down more than half a percent when you have the S&P up, you know, a quarter of a percent. So I think it's a little bit of erratic behavior like this. I don't think it's alarming because of the overall market, including the S&P, we're down two thirds of a percent after the room. We've had no big

deal. But you have to be aware that it's becoming a little more selective and narrow and top heavy. I mean, we're throwing around large numbers all over the place. Apple and Microsoft on the very same day go above $4 trillion in market cap. Apple's been getting there. Microsoft with this announcement today from Open AI, this restructure into a traditional for-profit and what Microsoft is going to get out of the revenues. And then that stock goes over. And the stocks continue to respond in a positive way to all of these pretty linear, upbeat headlines. which is a good thing, but it just on a short-term basis seems like it might be starving the rest of the market for oxygen here. So I think that's going into a Fed meeting.

Maybe we're just apprehensive about the rest of the market that's not AI-related, and we'll see. But the real key for tomorrow is the bullish case is we're getting a Fed rate cut that's a bonus cut, that's an insurance cut, that the economy doesn't need, and that's what the market's trying to struggle with when it looks to those technical sectors. Matt Boss, again, congratulations on being named number one in retail on the street for how, however many years in a row it's been. You don't cover Wayfair, but you see Wayfair, and the stock is doing obviously great things today on the back of its earnings,

and you think what as it translates into the stocks you do follow? Yeah, thanks for having me on, Scott, and on the number one, I really appreciate that. J.P. Morgan, a big win for them, too, just more broadly. I want to point that out. It's great to be at the best research house on the street. All right.

Look, our view on retail right now is it's a no-excuse backdrop. So I'm not surprised to see the results coming out of Wayfair. The macro backdrop, particularly the middle to higher income consumer, is on very, very firm footing right now. And what we're seeing from our data, the Chase proprietary card data, as well as our survey work, is that the higher income consumer is really fueling

what we see as continued momentum in the overall broader landscape for consumer spending. That doesn't mean that retail names at the lower end of the space can't do well, Right? I mean, where do your favorites lie at the top or the so-called bottom? So it's actually very bifurcated right now. But what's dictating the winners versus losers is more the micro rather than the macro, meaning product improvement, value perception. And so what that means is off-price retailers, TJX, raw stores, doing very well. And I think we'll continue.

We're seeing best-in-class brands like Ralph Lauren and the coach brand at Tapestry. Those would obviously be more higher end. So you're seeing winners at the low end, you're seeing winners at the high end, which is really coming down to company strategy, which, in my opinion, is really driven by leadership and who's making the right moves and who positioned coming out of the pandemic to get to where you stand today. We sort of left, like God, I feel like we painted every department store the same and we left them all for dead on the other side of the pandemic because trends have changed. Behaviors are different, but yet you still like Macy's. Why? It's a great point. So we initiated a pair trade into the third quarter and really through holiday in the early part of 26. It's long, Macy's short coals.

And I think that really speaks to the consolidation that's happening. You have what's happening between Neiman, Bergdorf, Sacks, that I think Bloomingdale stands to benefit from a branded perspective. And I think Macy's can be the branded destination. And they've made a lot of changes. They've cut the store base in half. And I think it's more of a branded destination for a consumer. that has money in their pockets. Mike, I mean, how do you look at this?

It's exactly what Matthew has said. High end doing great, low end, not so much. High end doing great enough that it can carry the whole show. The aggregates are all pointing in that direction where it's kind of like an asset-based economy. It's kind of a capital over labor story. And I think the bigger picture is, again, I keep going back to the Fed and why it matters for this market.

Because for months, it's been about Fed's going to cut rates in an economy that doesn't need it. Does that going to remain true? Are we going to be able to dismiss the weak job production that's going on in the economy for indefinitely, going into next year? I do think there's also some comfort being taken in some of the known stimulus measures that are going to hit in the first quarter. We're going to have a big tax refund season. You're going to get refreshed on that front. And so maybe that's all you need. But right now, I think you're in kind of soft patch or at least kind of spotty footing for retail.

So we talked many times, Matt, about, you know, the Nikes of the world and whether it could be a turnaround candidate and at what point. You finally decided it was because you're overweight that name. Lulu has come up numerous times in that conversation. Do you feel like it's there yet? You have a neutral and they just announced the big thing with licensing the NFL, which didn't go over that well. My concern with Lulu is when you look at the marketing as a percent of sales, it's half of what, best in class brands, like a Nike, like a coach. coach brand and like a Ralph Lauren. And so I think what really is working in retail is a combination of top of funnel marketing, meaning brand marketing. And Nike never stopped with that, as well as

product innovation and newness. And so I think you have a rough patch from Lulu's side where they're talking about not having enough newness, not having enough differentiation. And at the same time, what they spend in terms of brand marketing is not at the same level as some of the others. Does the deal with the NFL make sense to you? Some had criticized it saying, well, is that really their target shopper? How do you view that? Yeah, we hesitate anytime companies start to move away from the core. I mean, to me, what Lulu was great at was fabrication, newness, and innovation.

And I don't know that necessarily the partnership with the NFL is exactly down that line. There's others out there. Abercrombie also has a partnership with the NFL, so they're not alone in this strategy. All right. Well, we're glad to have you. Thanks for being here again. Congrats to you. Thank you. Mike, we're going to go two minutes here.

We just heard the sound effect, and we're going to get that, hopefully, 6,900 close. We may not. The market's a little bit edgy as we head into the end, but we have a lot on our plate in the days ahead. You're going to get three critical earnings reports tomorrow. You obviously have Apple and Amazon looming. I don't want to overlook the meeting between the president's Trump and she, which is coming Thursday, on those headlines that we got related to trade, which were incrementally positive. Market obviously likes it.

So you've got a lot to consider this week. Yes, I do think the market has migrated back toward assuming benign outcomes for a lot of these things. I think it's probably going to be redeemed when it comes to the outright reports from the big mega-cap tech leaders. When it comes to trade, I think it's more like as long as we don't have an adverse backsliding, re-escalation, it's probably going to be okay. And then in the absence of official government data, we have to look at these earnings reports. So you get visa, you get booking holdings. These are very good operators that are going to be growing faster than the consumer economy as a whole.

But they are going to be a decent read or at least a kind of a status check on exactly how the macro looks on the ground for those two big areas. I think that a lot of these stocks have kind of gotten set aside as the quality trade has stated. So we'll see if that firms up. You make a great point. It's like the Fed has blinders of sort because they don't have the economic data to look at. So they look at the economic data in front of them, the windshield wipers of earnings,

and they look pretty darn good. So they feel like they have some visibility. Even as they miss on their government data, they have it elsewhere. Bell rings us. We'll see where we finish up and I'll see tomorrow.