Closing Bell - Closing Bell: The Road to Record Highs 6/6/25

Episode Date: June 6, 2025

Strategas’ Chris Verrone, NB Private Wealth’s Shannon Saccocia and Invesco’s Brian Levitt break down their forecasts for stocks amid the trade uncertainty. Plus, Professor Jeremy Siegel tells us why he favors a “cautionary cut.” And, Robinhood hit fresh all-time highs. We tell you what’s driving that stock higher. 

All right guys thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bill. I'm Scott Wapner live from Post Nine here at the New York Stock Exchange and this make or break out begins with the road ahead for stocks after a better than expected jobs report suggests the economy still chugging along. We're going to ask our experts this hour including the Wharton schools Jeremy Siegel. New highs and beyond now are the next stop in fact for stocks. Here's a scorecard with 60 to go in regulation on this Friday a big day for the majors pretty broad sector sort as well we're better than 1 percent across the board tech's doing well today.

Apple's higher ahead of its worldwide developers conference on Monday as you know by now will be there live shares are down nearly 20 percent year to date so there's a lot riding on that. We discussed that coming up shares of Lululeululemon, they're cratering today, following that company's lackluster guide near 20% in the red. DocuSign, not much better. Take a look at that one. It's sinking too after its own earnings.

It's down near 19%. Tesla's not down today. It's bouncing a bit following yesterday's big sell-off in the midst of that Trump Musk falling out. And that's where we'll begin today at the White House, our very own Eamon Javras following that. And then we've just learned about the next step in the U.S.-China trade war as well within the last hour. Eamon, what can you tell us? Scott, we now know the date and time of that next meeting between the U.S. and

Chinese sides. The president posting on social media just a short time ago that the next meeting will be on June 9th. That is Monday. It'll take place in London. Secretary Besant, Secretary Lutnick and others will be meeting with their Chinese counterparts at that event. The president suggesting this should be a good meeting with the representatives from China. He says thank you for your attention to this matter as he often signs off his social media posts. Look, the market had been looking for this date as a sense of you know where things are going and whether that the talks are

in a cul-de-sac or whether the talks are actually moving forward so we know at least you know talks are happening the big question for markets is going to be whether any agreement comes out of the readout from that meeting on Monday afternoon US time. That's a big open question at this point, Scott. We also have been following the fallout from that epic meltdown between President Trump and Elon Musk, the richest man in the world against the most powerful man in the world on social media, captured the world's attention yesterday.

Today, what we're told is that the president's trying to move on. He's not interested in a call with Elon Musk today. We know that he's considering selling or giving away the red Tesla that he bought directly from Elon Musk. And there you see a live picture. That's the red Tesla. It's on West Executive Drive. That's between the White House and the old Executive Office building.

That's like the closest parking space, or one of the closest parking spaces that you can get to the West Wing and we're monitoring that Tesla. It has not been moved since all of the activity yesterday. So maybe that's a metaphor for the relationship Scott. They're not fully broken up yet. They're not you know it's like when you break up and you move out and then you have to separate all the stuff. They're not quite there yet. Yeah the White House Tesla Cam. We're gonna be glued there now, I guess. And that's where we are.

Eamon, thank you very much. Eamon Jaiver, great week of work on the North Lawn of the White House for us. Well, the breakup of the one-time besties makes the path of the president's so-called big, beautiful bill all the more intriguing, doesn't it? Emily Wilkins, live in Washington, where things currently stand.

On that front, Emily. Hey, Scott. Well, yeah, just to recap sort of where we're at, the Senate is continuing to work on their version of that Trump mega bill after the House passed their version the other week. We are expecting to see the details on that very key tax piece at some point next week.

You know, senators, they've pushed for changes that the energy industry has been asking for with extending some of those clean energy tax credits, as well as some of those potential changes to Medicaid. But senators, they really need to be careful here as they look at any changes to this bill, because anything they change has to go back to the House to be approved by them. And House members are already starting to warn that if the Senate tinkers with things too much, they're not going to back it. Chip Roy told me just this morning

that he's not gonna vote for the bill if senators increase the overall cost. But look, when it comes to this Trump-Musk debate, obviously Capitol Hill has been riveted to it, but they haven't really been impacted by the drama yet. Even though Musk, you know, he spent a lot of money in last November for the election, and he threatened to oust anyone who votes for this mega bill

But members really are not worried. They still seem to be very united among getting this done In fact, Congressman Troy Neils yesterday. He told Musk basically to bring it on Tell you what Elon, this is what I'll do. Come down to Texas 22nd district, right? I'll pay your filing fee and run against me. There you go. So full steam ahead there on the mega bill. Members not very much worried about Musk's threats at this point. Big question, of course, can they get this done before the president's requested July 4th deadline, which remains ambitious but possible. And Scott will of course be following all the twists and turns in the coming weeks.

We will. And there's more fallout you have to believe is going to still come. Emily Wilkins down at DC Force, thank you very much for that. Let's now bring in strategist partner and chief market strategist Chris Ferrone. He's back with us at Post Nights. Good to see you. Great to be here. Thanks for having me.

So let's just take the trade news. We're gonna have this meeting in London between the two parties and the bill. I mean, how are you thinking about both? Well, what we've been telling clients for weeks and weeks is one must actually be headline agnostic here. I think that works on both sides because the headlines a week or two weeks ago

weren't particularly compelling and they certainly seem more optimistic today, I don't want that to distract us from what the message of the market is. And I think the message of the market is still one that is largely pretty constructive here. New three-month high for the S&P today that comes on top of the NASDAQ last week

making a new three-month high. Those are generally pretty bullish conditions. Maybe most importantly, cyclicals continue to hum along. I know the data on balance has been softer. The market's saying ignore it. Cyclicals making new highs versus defensives says, hey, the economy's largely okay here. How can you possibly be headline agnostic? How can you tell us that we need to be when the future of the trade war and the future

of the tax bill matter more than anything else arguably. Because I think every single market message that we've seen since basically the lows back in April is telling us think what could go right not wrong over the next six months. I'll give you some examples. It was a month ago we were on your show you got the big expansion in one month highs. 60% of the S&P made a one month high. You look at that data historically it says forget whatever you were thinking and think about what could go right over the next six months.

Let's put a check there. We've recovered 80% or 85% of the entire decline. There's really never been an instance historically where you see big weakness after recovering that degree of the decline. And I think the leadership message, financials continue to hold their own, industrials continue to hold their own.

That doesn't sound like a market that's terribly concerned about the economic consequences of what's going on with trade. Doesn't matter though, the method to why we got that bounce back. It was all because of the rollback of the tariffs on China. We're not having this conversation today if that doesn't happen, are we?

Yeah, you know, I think it's a fair point in the context of this was trade-induced on the way down and it certainly seems like it was trade-induced on the way back up, but what hasn't really changed this whole time, pre-April 2nd and post-April 2nd, is the momentum stocks continue to lead. So in a lot of respects, Scott, the world looks very familiar to what we knew before April 2nd, post-April 2nd. Did we like the way things looked then before April 2nd and the fact that if tech was gonna be leading, you'd still have the naysayers saying,

well, I mean, this can't go on forever. Their growth rates are in fact slowing. Maybe their multiples aren't justified at current levels as a result of that, yet here we are with the NASDAQ up 10.6% a month. And I think what's most notable about that move in tech, discreetly, or NASDAQ more broadly, look how the composition of tech

is starting to evolve here. For the last year, it was own software, sell semis. That is starting to change here. All of these analog semis, many of which were down 40, 50% over the last year, all getting better. KLAC, Lamb Research, Micron, the Cosby broke out decisively over the last week or so. It's a message on global growth, it's a message on S&P earnings, it's a message on semis.

So I think if anything, tech has basically shown itself to reaffirm itself as the leader in this market, I think very constructive signs coming from tech. I mean, it's semis have bounced back, semis have been working so well, software has been working so well, it's kind of everything within that universe has been working so well, including so-called old tech, like the IBMs of the world. IBM, Cisco, Oracle, there was one point two or three weeks ago you had more tech stocks make a one month high than at any point in the last 20 years. That is bullish, not, Oracle. There was one point, two or three weeks ago, you had more tech stocks make a one month high

than at any point in the last 20 years. That is bullish, not bearish. So I know it's tempting to look at this week's headline or last week's headline and get very wrapped up. I think the market is telling you, look through it. The conditions we're seeing, whether it's credit, whether it's leadership, whether it's cyclicals, generally current bull market's not bear markets.

And none of that matters, like you're not worried about the bond market anymore, if the bill goes through at its current size and the bond market gets a little upset about that, yields back up in protest, it doesn't matter? I'm just so struck by the fact that over the last two or three weeks you've had the debt downgrade from Moody's, you had the crazy move in JGB yields that we all watched, you've had this tax bill and ten-year yields are still in the same old range. If all that didn't break them out, are they really gonna do it at this point? Well I think in part that the data has been reasonably weak, which is why yields have come in, no? Well I think data has been weak but cyclicals have been strong. So the market is saying, read through some of the softer data.

I'm in the contra camp, where I actually would be more worried about yields meaningfully lower from here. If our call on the economy that, hey, it's a pretty benign economic environment, if that's correct, it's hard to justify four or 390 or 375 10-year yields. So I'm in the camp where we gotta be a little careful what we wish for lower

bond yields are probably not the best message from this point forward yeah maybe not from here I hear you on that that makes that makes a lot of sense to me let's bring in now NB private wealth Shannon Sakosha and invest goes Brian Levitt Chris Ferrone of course is still with us what do you think Brian? I actually like the point that Chris was making on rates. I mean, it was interesting a couple of weeks ago how quick everybody wanted to make this case that we're now grappling with concerns

about US fiscal sustainability. And, you know, it seemed to me like we got a bit of a normalization in the term premium, but nothing extreme that would have me think that this is a bond market that's getting us into pretty significant challenges. So that's comforting. But you had that same thought that day or two or three or four.

I was trying to push back against it. I spent a lot of those days pushing back against it. But the notion that that was the sign of a potential... Yeah, that that was the beginning of the U.S. not being able to fund this business. I mean, it felt like we were on the precipice of something pretty bad. You don't think so?

Well, to Chris's point, we were sitting in a very similar range. I mean, if you look over the last couple of years, what's the 10-year rates sitting at on average? 430, so we went up 20 basis points, and some of the economic data has been better. You've got to expect a little bit more inflation. So to me, I was looking at that

as this is not the beginning of the end that so many investors have been worried about for so long. Shan, I mean, I guess these points are well-made because investors probably would have been wise to look through almost everything at this point because there's been a lot of noise and now you have the billionaires brawling and that's even louder noise,

whether it's meaningful to the market, I don't know. But you would have been well-served if you cut everything out and just try and focus on the prize at the end of the rainbow somewhere. Well, anything that prize, Scott, is that, you know, you you're coming into this year, your expectations coming into this year were that we're going to have some potential increase in tariffs. And I think that that was pretty, you know, pretty much consensus that we would see something. And so if you're going to go from a tariff rate from, say, two and a half percent to, say, maybe six, six and a half percent now, you know, with the rollback of some of these reciprocal tariffs, you know, your expectation is, is that you're going

to have a little hint of additional transitory goods-based inflation. But if you also look through to that cyclicality that Chris was talking about, you know, that was a place where, you know, we were more constructive coming into this year. And so we were perhaps expressing it a little bit differently than what Chris talked about. But I think if you look at the opportunity in the more cyclical sectors, if you look at financials, industrials, you know, even health care, which has obviously been a laggard. But if you look at some of the names that we've been invested in, we have looked through those potential tariff impacts.

We have looked through to the potential for an inflection hiring capex. And perhaps most importantly, you know, the spread of AI outside of the technology sector. And so Chris talked about the broadening out within the technology sector. I would pull that even further out and look at those cyclical sectors, particularly areas like industrial and financials

where you're getting that productivity and those efficiency gains already. And we haven't even truly seen the implementation of AI into 26 and 27 yet. When you, given your point of view, when people like, you know, Ray Dalio comment on things, or Jamie Dimon, or even a day ago, when Ken Griffin was once again talking about

the tax bill, the tariffs, how he said all of this, this the tariffs taking a toll on the US economy No part of you sits back and says Because it's a lag effect and he's right and it's going to have an undeniable effect It's a matter of when not if so I think of course emotionally there's that response But it's our job as animals to turn off the emotional side of our brain. But why is that emotional and not real? Fundamental. Like, how could you do what they've done in terms of tariffs and think that there's not going to be any economic fallout from it? That doesn't sound emotional. That sounds like a smart way to sort of try and game out things similar to a Fed raising interest rates and thinking that, you know, it's a lag.

I would think about it this way, Scott. The undefeated rule of Wall Street as we call it is that attitudes are shaped by what's happened not what will happen and if you look what the market's done over the last two months we're 40 days off the low S&P is up 19% off the lows. You would actually expect after a 20% rally attitudes to be far more bullish than they currently are. Yeah they're not. They're not. They're not. So I actually think there's room for attitudes and emotion

to get more in line with where the tape is. I'll give you a great example. If you look at any of the consumer sentiment data, right? We know how bad it's been. All the consumer confidence surveys have been in the first decile historically. You know what you historically should be doing when that's the case?

Buying consumer stocks. I know it's tough to get one's head around that, but this data tends to be more contra than it is confirming. So I think the sentiment environment of what you very accurately describe is more compelling than anything else. That attitudes have not caught up

with what the market's given it. Should we take all this as a contra indicator? You agree with that? I keep going back to that 2018 analogy. I know that the tariffs are different in size and scope. 2018 very similar once you paused it you had to wait a while for better news but the markets were up pretty big in 2019. So you know investors that try to time these things they almost always seem

to be pulling out of the market at extreme economic policy uncertainty. The challenge is that's when you get some type of response, whether it's just a 90-day pause or at some point maybe something more dovish from the Fed. But again, when you get to these extreme levels of volatility, you get some type of response and investors get whipsawed by it. Dan, catalysts ahead in your mind or what? Scott, you mentioned at the top, I'm perhaps a little bit more concerned about the bond market. But although I would admit, I think we are moving into a range around, you know, the

10-year and that sort of speaks to perhaps a little bit of additional stability. But the catalyst, Scott, is really going to be what we saw in expected capital expenditures by businesses. We had a big shoot higher in business confidence coming right off of the election. We've seen it come back down to 2020 levels, which really feels overdone, I think, in our view. And so if you look at some of the things

that are in this tax bill, we can argue about whether it's gonna come through exactly as it is now, but 100% first year expensing of structures, some look back on depreciation. There are some pro-business aspects of this bill that I think could provide some stability coupled with the negotiations on tariffs that could really catalyze businesses to invest in the second half of this year, create a little bit of momentum in hiring, and frankly provide that additional foundational

support for the consumer that we would need into 2026. What about earnings guys? I mean first quarter, Brian, obviously was better than many people expected that it would be. There are those though who warn that don't take that as a sign that you're off the hook now for the second and third quarter. Even people who are bullish like Ed Yardetti. That's the case he's currently making. Yeah I mean obviously anything we saw in the first quarter backward looking before all of these policy decisions were put forth.

I mean earnings are going to slow. Leading indicators of the economy, it's not like they're rocketing higher. They're pointing to growth that's going to be fine, you know, somewhat maybe even below trends globally. And so yeah, I wouldn't expect an outsized earnings growth environment, but certainly enough to continue to propel markets higher. Enough to justify 22 times minimum. Well, you're 22 times on the broad market. You're more, if you look at a median stock or you look at an equally weighted S&P 500, you're closer to

more of an average. So the question around 22 or 24 times earnings is, are the concentrated names worthy of those multiples? Not necessarily the other 493. You view it the same way? Yeah, I mean, we've got six weeks now, basically between now and the kickoff to earnings. June tends to seasonally be a very good month. Seasonality tends to wane in late July. We'll take stock then.

But just with respect to the point on growth, I mean, first quarter was a 0% quarter. It looks like 2Q, maybe 4 1⁄2 or 5%. Let's average them, right? We're somewhere in the 2 1⁄2% range. Throw 2 1⁄2 inflation on top. You're left with 5% nominal. Ten-year yields are 450 today.

I think we're very much balanced here. All right, we'll leave it there. Chris, Brian, and Shannon, we'll talk to all of you soon. To Pippa Stevens now, for a look at the biggest names moving into this Friday close. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Scott. Well, Circle is jumping another 40% today,

building on the stock's 168% pop yesterday as it made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange, pricing its IPO above the expected range. Circle's USDC stablecoin is the second largest stablecoin on the market behind Tethers. But Lululemon shares are plunging after the athleisure company cut its full-gear earnings forecast, citing a dynamic macro environment. On the conference call, CEO Calvin McDonald said U.S. consumers are being cautious and

intentional about their buying decisions, those shares down some 20 percent. Scott? For that, Pippa Stevens, we're just getting started here up next. We get you set up for Apple's highly anticipated Worldwide Developers Conference. Starts on Monday, we'll be there live. And later, class is in session with the professor, Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School. He is standing by to tell you what he thinks about this market from here. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange and you're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. And we'll see you next time. Bye. Bye.

Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.

Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Apple's higher today ahead of its Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday, but with shares down near 20% this year, the stakes could not be higher.

CNBC's Steve Kovach joins us now along with Big Technologies' Alex Kantiewicz, who is also a CNBC contributor. Gentlemen, it's good to have you here. Steve, I heard an analyst on an earlier program today call this a prove it moment. Yes. You see it that way as well. It's the chance to prove it. We'll see if they actually prove it because like we've been saying all day, Scott,

is a year ago was the prove, was supposed to be the prove it moment. This was Apple Intelligence. This was the big debut. Their take on AI and the LLMs and this whole big chat GBT moment, this was supposed to be their response. And they, honestly, they beefed it.

And then they didn't make it happen. They failed to execute. The features that did launch had been unimpressive. The Chat GBT integration did go off without a hitch. However, it's not as good as using Chat GBT, the regular app. And then, of course, the big Siri miss, which was supposed to be the answer to Chat GBT. And we have no idea when that's going to come and what that's going to look like. So the question now is, what are they going to show us on Monday that kind of fills in those gaps

that they left open for themselves? It's all about the developers at the end of the day. So is what we think a prove it moment really at a prove it platform? Is it the right place to find out all the answers that we need to learn? In my perspective, it absolutely is. So what we've seen with Apple is sort of a flip.

The most important events used to be the hardware events, the iPhone rollouts. That was the flagship moment for Apple. That has shifted to WWDC. Of course, two years ago, we saw the Vision Pro rollout. Last year, Apple Intelligence, and you're right, it is all about the developers and what's built on top of the iOS platform,

because the most important business unit for Apple is that services business. That's where the growth is coming from. If you look at iPhone shipments, according to IDC, 2024 was actually slower than 2023. The revenue is about the same as the year before, but that is likely because the average selling price of the iPhone is going up, which means all the focus for Apple is about about services it's about what can be developed on top of that platform we know there's gonna be a big focus on the operating system this year but as far as the big flashy prove it moment that was supposed to be last year as Steve mentioned we didn't see it this year in terms of the big AI advances people are

talking about it as a gap year meaning we're not gonna see much from Apple on that front. We have to wait to next year. And no one else is taking a gap year, by the way. Apple is, yeah. That's true. Right. People are like doubling down on what they're doing at a really fast-

Can't keep up with that. At a really fast pace. You've described Apple coming into this event as facing threats on multiple fronts, arguably more so than they have at any point in time under Tim Cook's leadership. That's a fair way to look at that? 100%, so Alex and I were talking about this just now during the commercial break.

If you look back, the biggest challenge that I can remember Tim Cook facing to the business was Samsung, remember the threat to Samsung in the early 2010s, these big beautiful screen phones, and Apple had these tiny phones that were slobbering over these big Samsung phones, right? And then all of a sudden, Apple, oh, we're just gonna make a big phone.

Off to the races, Samsung's a second thought, we don't even think about it, and it's been just pure growth from there. And now we see the growth in iPhone stalling, we see competition in China big time from Huawei, they're losing market share and their second most important market. So now look what they're facing today.

The tariff situation, again, not something that they self-inflicted, but it is the problem they have to deal with. The Epic Games lawsuit, we're talking about developers right now, these developers to make money too. And right now they're looking at this option to make web payments as a way to get around these App Store fees. What can Apple say to them to keep them in the ecosystem? Is their AI development platform, to your point, Alex,

is it good enough to say, okay, we're going to stick with Apple instead of going to the web or somewhere else? I feel like now also in the zeitgeist is Johnny Ive. Yes, oh and that too. And OpenAI. And Johnny Ive talking about devices, and talking about legacy devices that don't seem to be as relevant as they once were or won't be

as we continue to move forward in AI. Is that this overhang that we need to think about that they're gonna be thinking about out there always now? I think they have to start thinking about it. They have been thinking about it for years. In fact, they released the HomePod a couple years ago, which didn't work because their AI team was disappointing. It was their answer to the Amazon Echo and Alexa Inside.

We didn't see much movement there. And you even have recently executives like Eddie Q, who runs services, saying maybe 10 years from now we won't need an iPhone. Now I think a lot of this talk is hyperbolic. Johnny Ive is saying the iPhone is a legacy device because he's working with an AI company right now, and OpenAI, so of course he's gonna position himself.

I feel like it's not just anybody calling it a legacy device. Well at the same time, you gotta think, he's putting more pressure on himself than he's putting on Apple. Not just anybody calling it a legacy device. Well at the same time, you gotta think, he's putting more pressure on himself than he's putting on Apple. They're putting more pressure on OpenAI. Because what if that device comes out and it doesn't blow us away the way

that a regional iPhone did? Boy is that gonna be an embarrassment for OpenAI. We've seen it come from other Apple veterans, the people that launched the U-Main. Oh, the U-Main. Which didn't work out. So this is a long term threat. I'm not playing it down.

With all due respect, it's not Johnny I. I mean, Johnny I puts his name on something. It's like Tom Ford. If he designs something, you know it's gonna be hot. Not necessarily. I don't think it's necessarily the truth with Johnny Ive. He obviously has done a lot of great work with Apple when he worked along Steve Jobs.

Maybe he can recreate that magic with Sam Altman. Has he done anything after leaving Apple that makes us say after his Steve Jobs chapter he's the guy that he was? I don't think so. I'm not saying he's not going to do it, but I think that we've seen people try to come up with these AI devices. It makes sense. There should be a sort of an AI device or an AI voice that hangs out with you and sees the world as you do and listens to what you do. But is that going to be two or three years out or is that 10 or 20 years out?

I'm on the longer timeframe. We talked about how search might be killed by generative AI. Google is posting amazing numbers with traditional search. I think it's going to take a long time before we move off the phone. That said, what type of phone is it going to be? Is it going to be an iPhone or is it going to be a phone with, for instance, all the Google AI features that we saw at Google I.O. a couple weeks ago? That's the open question to me.

We're going to know pretty quickly too, right? I mean, the event happens. You guys are going to be back with me, you know, and close the bell. Literally as it ends. Right? Reacting to it. And you'll be the deciders as to whether the narrative was reset based on what you tell our investing community. And the market will decide as well as they're watching this big keynote and listen to Tim Cook and his executive team explain what they see, how they see their platform moving forward. Look, so much of the stuff they're going to give us on Monday is free.

It's going to be a free upgrade to your phone or a free upgrade to your MacBook. It's not going gonna move phones. So what are they gonna do to keep that services business growing? That is what people are gonna be watching for because remember, Apple Intelligence was supposed to be the thing that moves phones. They kind of hard-rogated it

so you have to buy the new device in order to use it. Well, no one wanted to use it because it was subpar and then they didn't fulfill their whole promise there. Apple tried to shift the narrative last year with the Apple Intelligence rollout. And we sat there, I think we kind of had mixed reactions because that vision would have caught them up

to the rest of tech. And so I think this year, even if they tell us what's gonna happen, we're gonna definitely look at it more skeptically. I think for them to really shift what's going on now, it's gonna take time or a surprise. I personally think they should try to acquire AI search engine perplexity,

which is trying to raise it a 14, $16 billion valuation where Apple is doing $100 billion by that. They need to have happen what actually happened after WWDC. Can we look at a one year chart, please? Because from WWDC, that was the catalyst. That was the optimism. That was the catalyst that got the stock to an all-time high.

I was on the show every day last December, Scott, talking about these new all-time highs. Chachi PT just launched with Siri, and there's so much optimism and excitement around the big Siri update that was supposed to come February, March or so of this year. Then we got the news that it wasn't gonna happen, and boom, all the air got let out of the balloon.

They were not hearing super cycle anymore. Yeah, we'll see. It's gonna be fun. Maybe from Dan. To be with you guys out there, as we all sort of build up and then react to whatever happens. Don't miss our coverage

from Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference. We'll have the pregame show on halftime, noon Eastern, the postgame show right after. The event starts at one o'clock. We'll be back with closing bell from there with that postgame wrap.

You'll see a K there you'll see Kovac there and many others too. And we hope you'll join us for that up next. You're going to see the Wharton School's Jeremy Segal because he's standing by with his summer playbook for stocks.

Today's Better than Expected jobs report sending stocks ever closer to a new all-time high. The real question is what happens next. Let's pose that question to the Wharton School Professor of Finance and Wisdom Tree Chief Economist Jeremy Siegel. Welcome back. Nice to see it's nice to see you. Good to see you, Scott. Are we back in, this is a foregone conclusion, it's only a matter of how far we can run, idea?

Yeah, one of the oldest expressions on Wall Street is make the trend your friend. And the trend is upward, and as I said a couple weeks ago, the way the market just reacts to medium and good news is good and it shrugs off bad news. You know there's a lot of internal strength there amidst a tremendous amount of pessimism, which some of your guests at the top of the hour

talked about, we're not in an overly bullish stance in terms of professional or ordinary investors. I really think it was encouraging what happened with China. There's going to be a meeting on Monday. There was no blow up between Xi and Trump on the phone talking about the snags that have come. Now all that said, and I've said this before, the market is looking at a 10% across the board, 30% China, yeah I know there's 50 on aluminum and steel, but basically they're

looking at that as the base case. If that blows up, you know, all bets are off. But at this point, it looks like that assumption is holding. Professor, this whole thing is about playing the probabilities, right? You play the odds on what you think is most likely to happen, and then you invest accordingly. So if I say the odds are that we're going to have a trade deal with China, you'd say, well, I'd bet on that because the president needs it.

While the odds are that we're gonna have a tax bill deal and that's gonna get through. And you'd say, well, but the odds are we're gonna have that too and the president needs it. And then I'm gonna say, well, the odds are that the Fed's gonna cut rates next. I don't know if I'm going to say, well, the odds are that the feds going to cut rates next. I don't know if it's going to be tomorrow, July, September or early in 26. But I know that their next move is going to be a cut.

You'd probably say I'd bet on that too. Therefore, where's the rub? I mean, that sounds like a pretty decent story to me. Yeah, it's an excellent story. Now, either of those could go south, though. I actually think, despite all the debate about the tax cut, that's going to happen. We're going to get it.

Whether SALT is the way it is or slightly out, we are going to get that. If they don't do it in time, they may have to separate out the debt ceiling for a temporary six months until they work it out. But that is a 95% confidence plus for me. Trade deal with China that keeps it as it is and the rest of the world, I think that that's more like an 80% probability.

And a Fed cut now when, very honestly, I think there's, despite the fact that today's employment report was good, you know, I've been for a precautionary cut. You know, it's my belief Fed funds should be about 100 basis points under the 10-year. And it's only 13 or 17 basis points under the 10 year. So in some sense, I do think the next move should be down. And I think that's, if you ask me something I'm a little worried about, if the data does turn soft, is the Fed too late?

And that probably is probably my biggest worry if you would talk about a worry going into the second half. That probably is probably my biggest worry if you would talk about a worry going into the second half. Well, but professor, you've changed your point of view on that multiple times. So I'm surprised somewhat to hear you say that you're for a cautionary cut. You were, but then you weren't. Why are you now?

The economy still looks pretty good. Well, let's put it this way. We do have tariffs. When I went saying, hey, no cod, that was before the tariffs. And the tariffs are consumption tax. They are going to slow us down. Now, the reason why, and very honestly, and I said this before, if there were no tariffs at all, or let's put it the first term Trump tariffs,

I think we'd be in all time high territory right now. But I think at 10% tariffs, that's a challenge to corporations. Adversity is the mother of invention. Hey, how can I lower costs? And here's where AI comes in. Am I implementing AI in the way that I can best to offset the effect of the tariffs?

This could be an accelerator to AI adoption and offset the negative effects of the tariffs. So yeah, I mean, I'm not for tariffs. I still think that's a negative outcome of the tariffs. So yeah, I mean, you know, I'm not for tariffs I still think that's a negative outcome for the US economy, but there's enough positive Factors going on there that can still lift the stock market, but the Fed has been well served in waiting. I mean We have higher tariffs today than we probably would agree that we're going to have higher tariffs today than we probably would agree that we're going to have six to 12 months from now. And in an environment where we have higher tariffs than we think are going to exist down

the road, we're only two and a half percent away from a new high on the S&P 500. And we're going to put a decent number in the books, more than likely, for GDP in the second quarter. And we just put a better number in the books for corporate earnings in the first quarter than most people even expected. Why in the world do we need a rate cut in that environment? Well first of all, if you average the first and second quarter, it's much more mediocre. I think, by the way, both are distorted.

I think the first quarter is distorted down and the second up, and that's because of the tremendous swing in imports because of the threat of the tariffs. And secondly, let's face it Scott, the impact of the higher prices of tariffed goods is only going to start appearing into the next three or four months. And so a lot of people say, hey, higher prices yeah economists are saying that, but you know how often are they right? I'm not gonna believe it until I see it. I think they're going to see something and that's going to be a slowdown. And I say I'm not bearish because I think firms are gonna work really hard to you know increase

productivity to offset that, but I think that that slowdown is, and the Fed should see through tariffs, tariff inflation, it's not something to tighten, but there is slower growth, look at the trend of employment, look at the trend even of GDP, if you take two quarters averaging, does in my sense justify a lower Fed funds rate at the present time. Will it be a disaster if they don't?

No, it won't be a disaster, but very honestly given trends looking through inflation, looking at the 10 year, listen, you know, look at how much, 10 years, very well behaved. Inflationary expectations by the difference between the swap rates, the tips rates, all those are very well behaved. The Fed could lower rates at the present time. Well, you're making music to the president's ears. We know that because he wants them to cut now too. Always fun, professor.

Good weekend to you. We'll see you soon. Absolutely. Thank you, Scott. Always fun, Professor. Good weekend to you. We'll see you soon. Absolutely. Thank you, Scott. All right, Professor Jeremy Siegel. Up next, we track the biggest movers into the close once more. Pippa Stevens standing by with that.

Tell us what you see. Well, Barclays is bullish on an under the radar data center play, sending shares soaring. The stock to watch. Coming up next. the Let's get back now to Pippa Stevens for a look at the stocks that she's watching. What's high on your list today? Check out DocuSign because it is sinking after its Q1 billings came in lower than expected,

prompting the company to cut its full year billings forecast. Evercore ISI, which has an inline rating on the stock, said today's reaction is a little overdone of taking a longer-term view, but that the billing's fog first needs to lift. And Solaris is surging after Barclays initiated coverage on the energy infrastructure company with an overweight rating, saying it's the leader in distributed power, with more than 60 percent of its coming power growth allocated towards data centers on long-term contracts. Those shares up 10%. Scott? Bipa, thank you very much. Bipa Stephen, still ahead. Walmart's shareholder event just wrapping up.

We do have a live report from the company's HQ coming up. There is the stock today. We're back after this on The Bell. We are now in the closing bell market zone. CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, Courtney Reagan with the biggest headlines out of Walmart's shareholder meeting. And Kate Rooney on Robinhood adding to its mega rally this year. We do start with Courtney Reagan telling us what happened with Walmart today, Court. Hey, Scott. Yeah, so Walmart just wrapping up its annual Associates and Shareholder Week. There were 35 events, seven announcements, including an expansion of its drone program and explaining how it's using AI to better enhance the digital experience.

But it all sort of culminated with this executive Q&A with the members of the media right here behind me at the University of Arkansas. And Walmart CEO Doug McMillan said that he's not seeing consumers change any behavior when it comes to possibly stockpiling ahead of possible price increases from tariffs. And then he was asked, well, what's it like to run a retailer in a political environment where the president can and has posted about you personally and or your business. And he said, quote, We've always had to be thoughtful about what we say. And that's still true. But we're super practical people. We're just trying to be good retailers. I remember Walmart had said in its most recent earnings report

that it would try to mitigate as much of the cost from tariffs that it could. But with tariffs at these levels, it was going to have to raise prices in some cases. Walmart shares since the April 2nd announcement are up about 10%, but that's slightly underperforming the XRT, which is up about 12% in that same period of time. Scott. All right. Thank you, Court. Appreciate that.

That's Courtney Reagan. Now, Kay Rooney on what has Robinhood off to the races? Scott, well, it is continuing this massive run up. We've seen shares of Robin Hood have roughly doubled so far this year. The crypto and market rally have really helped that. And then overall trading activity has rebounded. As we've been reporting, there has been a lot of dip buying by the retail crowd this year.

One factor, though, driving today's action. So there is some new speculation that Robin Hood might get added to the S&P. Bank of America writing in a note note they view it as a prime candidate for the S&P 500 with the next rebalancing which would be announced later today. Goldman Sachs also with a bullish note this week pointing to Robinhood's May trading metrics which imply better trading volumes across products. They talk about higher margin balances and some momentum for assets under custody. Overall they're constructive on the structural growth of that business and retail trading

and the whole backdrop as well. They're also moving into wealth management and banking. So Robin, it has been able to diversify revenue a bit, but you're seeing a much more bullish sentiment lately on the street, Scott. All right, Kate Rooney, thank you very much for that. To Mike Santoli now as we try and get that 6,000 close on the S&P. Looks like we're going to be there. You know, we were about a half a percent from here two weeks ago and the market just sort

of gently calmed down and reloaded. And the jobs report today, even though there was kind of a soft underbelly, even though it wasn't really that strong in terms of momentum, it was good enough to kind of kick the concern about the hard data and the real economy down the road a bit. We're getting a little bit close to the old highs above 61.50 or so, you know, less than 3%. It would be odd if we didn't make a decent stretch for it, not in a straight line, but within coming weeks.

That being said, you know, we now have a market where the stress has kind of drained away. We're assuming that pretty favorable things are gonna be happening. The VIX is probably going to close under 17. That's the first time since late February when we were in a pretty comfortable spot. You see broad participation, cyclical stocks moving fine. So it all works together pretty well.

I don't think you have people being over exuberant, but the Robinhood move is interesting because that pocket of the market is pretty fevered right now. And you have retail traders gunning stocks and options, inflating Robinhood's valuation, which makes it eligible for the S&P, which excites retail investors about it going into the S&P. So the best trade is probably after it gets announced, not after it goes out. All right. Good stuff.

Sell's going to bring us out. Green is dead. S&P right on that line at 6,000. The two where we settle. Good weekend to you, Mike. Good weekend to all of you watching. And continue doing so over time.