Closing Bell - Closing Bell: The Tech Takeoff 6/24/25

Episode Date: June 24, 2025

Tech hit a new record high today with the Nasdaq 100 also approaching its own milestone. We discuss with Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders. Plus, top technician Jeff deGraaf is highlighting three must-see charts he is watching right now. And, we drill down on some big moves in Carnival and Uber today. 

Welcome to Closing Bell and Scott Wapner live from Post 9 right here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or break hour begins with stocks chasing new highs as we enter the final stretch. The scorecard looks like this with 60 to go in regulation. We are green across the board. We are at the highs or certainly near the highs of the day and we are trying to close on the S&P 500 above 6100 for the first time since late February. We will watch all of that. Tech is making a move today. Word of a ceasefire in the Middle East, giving the majors a boost right from the jump and climbing even more as Fed Chair Powell spoke on Capitol Hill.

He delivered no surprises to lawmakers, came across perhaps as being flexible on interest rates, the market like that. I said, Texas story, it certainly is. That sector hitting a new record high the Nasdaq 100 also approaching its own milestone. Take a look one and two-thirds percent higher that leads us to our talk of the tape the tech takeoff will begin there with our own dear Jirbosa. Dee tell us more about this move. Well I will pick up I'll pick up Scott where you just left off the level. The exact level to watch is 22,175.60 cents at the NASDAQ 100 can finish above that.

It is a fresh all-time closing high. We are just within distance. And really this is a remarkable rebound for tech. The index had fallen more than 20% from its peak. It's a few things here. Tear relief and the broader market momentum, strong fundamentals from big tech, the AI trade, really roaring back,

boosting names in the space like Palantir, Microchip, and less profitable tech also catching a bit as the street is optimistic that the Fed may find room to cut rates before the end of the summer. Of course, lower rates make future profits more valuable, and those companies like a CoreWeave, they're all about the future potential. A few weak spots though worth mentioning,

four of the Meg-7, they're still lower on the year, that would be Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla. Scott, where do we go from here? Well, the AI trade, it needs to be sustained, even as some cracks are showing, in reasoning capabilities. And of course, we've got big tech earnings, they gotta hold up, they gotta justify the gains that we've seen recently. Those roll out in about a month or so.

Back to you. Even more impressive, Dee, I suppose that if what you say that some of the mag sevens are negative year to date, and yet the tech sector hits a new record, that shows a broadening out of the growth trade. It does. And it's some of those non-profitable names and some of the semis really, of course, powered by that growth trade. It does, and it's some of those non-profitable names and some of the semis really, of course,

powered by that AI trade. But I agree with you, all the more impressive that more than half of the Meg 7, they're actually still lower on the year. And Apple, Google, Amazon, really plagued by some of the concerns around that AI trade. Yeah, Dee, thank you very much for that setup. Semis, as Dee just said, ripping lead higher today by Broadcom and AMD. A couple of upgrades today, and that's leading the

sector higher. Christina Partzanovalos, as you know, watches this very closely and she joins us with more. There's a lot of green on your screen. Yes, there is. And so, like you said, the chip stocks are really driving the S&P info tech sector to fresh highs today. One name I like to look at is the SMH, is the semiconductor ETF. It's trading just below what, 4% off its 52 week peak with every single component in the green today. Like you mentioned, there's a few catalysts driving this rally within chips you've got. First, Taiwan's Economic Daily News reported that Foxconn held a private analyst meeting yesterday where management said their AI-related orders are locked in through 2027.

Keep in mind, Foxconn is essentially Nvidia's biggest contract manufacturer for AI servers, so that is giving a lot of demand and in the AI pipeline helping names across the board from suppliers Micron, I should say Broadcom and AMD. Meanwhile, Supermicro computers, convertible debt offering yesterday might have seen like a bearish signal since it's typically diluted for stocks, but Wedbush today says it sees it differently. They're viewing this as Supermicro positioning for a surge in blackweld chipped shipments from Nvidia. The theory is that Supermicro can

finally get their servers out the door and start recognizing that pent-up revenue. And then adding fuel to the fire, Scott HSBC upgrading Broadcom today, arguing that Wall Street is really undervaluing their custom chip business. And then lastly, I have to talk about Ambarella, because that name is surging about 16% following a Bloomberg report that the chip designer is contemplating selling itself, 17% right now. So the semiconductor supply chain overall for taking this,

a big takeaway appears to be hitting a stride after months of bottleneck for supply. And then the AI infrastructure buildup really looks like it has staying power. And so that's why you're seeing the broadening of chip demand across the space and not just within the main AI players like Nvidia. Scott?

Yeah, nice move all the way around in tech today. Christina, thank you. We're joined now by Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, Liz Ann Saunders. It's good to see you. We're not that far away from new highs, and you can thank the growth factor for getting us there, can't you?

Yeah, so that's been interesting. Momentum has certainly picked up as a factor doing well, and that's not surprising when you get these kind of rip higher rallies but aside from that which isn't really a fundamental factor it's more like a concept it just means

that stocks that have been working continue to work. But it's interesting that also kind of up the ranking in the leaderboard are those more growth oriented factors both historical growth and prospective growth so positive

earnings revisions so it clearly tells you that there's still a bit of a quality bias in terms of what's working with an emphasis, a little bit less on valuation, but more on can you sustain that earnings growth? Are you in a position either because of immunity to tariffs or whatever the reason that you've got that positive outlook from an earnings perspective and an otherwise murky earnings outlook more broadly. What do you think this move is about today? Is it about the Middle East not going to be as bad as investors fear just a couple of days

ago? Is it about Chair Powell being firm but flexible on what the Fed might do in the months ahead? So I've been in this business got for almost forty years and one of my mantras that I express quite often. Is that it better or worse often matters more than good or bad it's relative to expectations it's that

direction of travel it's inflection points and- we've really seen that come into play in the market going all the way back to. Early April when we had. The you know week apart. Tariff you know shockers April

second the announcement of the reciprocal tariffs the implosion in the market. And then the- delay still looking at a 15% average effective tariff rate in place right now. But it was that. Better than worst case scenario in that first week in April that

kicked in. Same thing has happened as it relates to the conflict in the the Middle East. Concerns that obviously developed over the weekend and the spike we saw in oil prices. And the what what the futures were signaling on Sunday night

when things were not. As bad as what was expected we weren't seeing an escalation. That was enough to move the market higher and I still think the pain trade is higher. So we have to really think about not just trying to gauge the news and the

announcements from a policy perspective geopolitics tariffs but also what the setup is for the market as to whether that means you have more potential upside if you get that slightly better news or maybe the risk of some downside if you get that slightly better news, or maybe the risk of some downside

if you get a negative catalyst. That setup is really important. I still feel like not everybody is participating in all of this from an institutional standpoint, and that's a catalyst in and of itself. When the writing gets on the wall that we're not only gonna hit new highs, but we have the possibility of going even higher than that.

There goes your next leg of this rally, if there is to be one. And this has been such a fascinating move up off the lows in early April because retail traders fingerprints are all over this. And I'm not, notice I said retail traders and not individual investors. I'm specifically talking about that category

that kind of came out of the COVID. Era the shorter term focus they have very much a by the dip mentality and you saw. And have seen those fingerprints because it's areas like. Retail favorites and- negative- you know earnings in

the tech space that has done well the meme stocks that have done well. And then more recently in the rally. You saw the heavily shorted names perform well and that may suggest that that by the dip which worked on the part of the retail traders for some rethinking of positioning on the part of institutions. So you saw it in the short covering institutions are still not positioned aggressively risk on which does suggest that maybe the pain trade is still higher from an institutional positioning

perspective. But when we get there and assuming you still have, you know, rampant enthusiasm on the part of the retail trader, then the setup becomes one that maybe is subject to some downside if you get a negative catalyst. Stay with me for a minute, Lizanne. I mentioned the chair of the Federal Reserve on the Hill today. It's the first of two days worth of testimony there.

Steve Leesman joins us now. And Steve, maybe part of this today is on that idea that though Chair Powell once again underscores that they want to be patient, he's not going to be stubborn either if the evidence suggests that he should be cutting interest rates, he's going to do it. I think that's an important observation, Scott. I think that he was not dug in his heels, saying no way, no how.

He just wants more information and to be clear that we don't have an inflation problem. He did not say, for example, we won't cut. He said he wants to see two things. He wants to be sure. And he did say the inflation for June and July, which come in July and August, remember Scott. So he wants to see two months of better inflation. He also wants to see downside weakness.

But listen to what he said about the possibility of rate cuts. We haven't fully restored price stability and another shock, we have to be careful if there's a meaningfully large and sustained inflation shock, we have to be careful about that and so, you know, I think we're just trying to be careful and cautious. So Powell said he expects tariff inflation to show up in June and July, but the Fed can adapt policy if that doesn't happen. He noted that most officials still have two rate cuts built in for this year, suggesting most think inflation is going to be at a place that the Fed will be allowed to cut.

And that's how Fed futures are trading. Yields obviously went down on the 2 and the 10, but look, July still at a 19% probability. Better odds or higher probabilities for September and and December north of 85% near 90% That's pretty good confidence on the part of the market. We have the two Fed governors talking Scott So I'll preempt your question, which is how much of a food fight do we have? Well, you know Waller and Bowman want to go in July but several Fed officials suggested today that they would like to have more time the way Powell did Scott Yeah, that's alright. I I mean, some tension's good, right? Let's see what happens and then we'll see how it all plays out and then you and me will

talk about it a million times. Steve, thank you. Steve Leesman, our senior economics. Go ahead. Go ahead. I'm sorry. Oh, sorry. Just one question that wasn't asked, so if I could talk to the senators who are going

to be there tomorrow, which is I would like to hear Powell respond directly to Waller's citation of the research which says that the fed should look through this. They were asked about Waller but not specifically about that research which says that the the past shows that the fed should look through this can cut now. Powell didn't exactly address that. That's one thing I'd like to hear tomorrow. So we'll be back at it again tomorrow. Maybe you and I will be talking again. Yeah I'm sure we will Steve thank you for that we'll go back to Lizanne Saunders now for a moment I mean I feel like some of this Lizanne is getting to the don't fight the Fed idea that if you believe that they're gonna cut because they can and they're not

forced to right that's positive for the market, isn't it? Well, I think the fact that Powell is being very pragmatic and kind of sticking to his guns on we have a dual mandate and that dual mandate will dictate the appropriateness of policy, the when and the how much. And I think the market is probably keying off that in a positive way. I think what Powell doesn't say directly, but one thing we all need to be mindful of with any kind of pressure to cut too soon is the possibility you get an experience like we had last fall. A lot of people don't remember

that when the Fed cut by 100 basis points, starting with 50 and then two subsequent 25s, over that same period of time, when you had 100 basis points of cut to the Fed funds rate, you had 100 basis points of increase to the 10 year. The market saying, wait a minute, growth hasn't slowed enough.

We, you may be loosening too quickly or too much. So you got the bond market sending a different message. And I think there's, I don't know whether that's exactly what would happen if the market perceived the Fed either by virtue of political pressure Starting to ease Prematurely or too soon, but I think the market part of the reason why it's doing well is that the Fed is Reinforcing the why behind why they put themselves in a timeout and I think that's probably the right position for now

Yeah You make a good point reminding us of that I was sitting with Jeffrey Gunlock on that Fed day when the Fed cut and then both of us were watching rates rise and we're like, hmm, that's interesting. And here we find ourselves today. Stay with me, I wanna bring in Rockefeller Globals,

Angela Mwanza and American centuries Mike Rowe, they've joined the conversation. Angela, it's nice to see you guys, thanks. What do you think? What do you think about this market? We are like 0.8% from a new high. It's pretty insane, Scott. And this is a conversation we've been having since the weekend with our clients, which

is we're in this weird tug of war. On the one hand, we're chasing new highs and insane. On the other hand, trade tensions, inflation, geopolitical risks, all of that stands ahead of us. And the dispersion of outcomes is so unpredictable. So for us, the rule is you've got to stay diversified and not panic and do not emotionally engage. And July is going to be really telling because we've got to be able to see what's going to happen with earnings. Because if we're seeing tariffs going from 2.5% to 12, 15%, that's going to have severe implications

for Wall Street and for Main Street. I feel like, as it relates to the tariffs and almost everything, the more the market goes up, the less that President Trump and the administration are gonna wanna do anything to upset it. Like, what are you to hit a new high and then your policy is going to cause some correction or or close to? What do you think about that? Yeah well on the earnings point you have to remember earnings actually

should be pretty good because a lot of the companies gave guidance right after Liberation Day when they had no visibility as to what May and June were going to look like and it seems like from a narrative perspective tariffs are just kind of in the rear view mirror right like the the market is absolutely looking forward to 2026 and saying okay tariffs may have been a speed bump they're probably not getting worse you're probably gonna have trade deals you're gonna have the tax bill you're gonna have a new Fed share coming in next year, likely to be a lot more dovish and you could see more rate cuts. So whether they cut one or two times this year, maybe a moot point at some point as

you look to next year. Are you bullish then? Looking out, you can definitely make the bullish case. Are you making it? Yes, yeah, I think I am, absolutely. I want to be careful though because you have to look at valuations. We've come a long way really fast. The S&P is trading at 30% above its historical average, right?

We're making new highs every day. So what we're telling clients is be diversified, look to areas that have not participated in the upside. Small caps, mid caps, the equal weight S&P is not that expensive. So make sure you have your eggs in multiple baskets, because we're still, like to your point, tariffs really are just starting to hit now. So things can go wrong, but again, looking out to next year, you can make a really positive case. Most of the things that people have thought are going to go wrong and never went wrong. They never materialized. We

did not have a recession after the Fed started hiking rates. We haven't had tariff-induced inflation. Now I realize it's early and anything could happen, but we haven't hiking rates. We haven't had tariff induced inflation. Now I realize it's early and anything could happen, but we haven't had that. We haven't had the labor market falling out of bed, the unemployment rate shooting up. And earnings, by the way, were better than people expected in the first quarter too. It's almost anything that's been thrown at this market. It's brushed it off, it's remained resilient, and it continues, as I said, to approach these new highs. It's pretty incredible. And the idea of resilience within portfolios

is we want to be able to withstand whatever comes our way. I mean, watching these all-time highs in technology is really interesting when we think about where should we invest? Valuations are so high, and we're looking at how do we play the game of the shovels to the gold rush and we're looking towards renewables because it comes down to where are we going to get energy from. We're sitting here in the cool temperature of the studio outside is 102 degrees, 38 degrees Celsius for those who want to know.

I don't know if we're going to have enough energy available to keep us cool in just a couple of days. And so we're looking at renewable energy. We know that their headwinds when it comes to regulation, when it comes to interest rates. But ultimately, what can come online quickly enough given that we have population growth and given the AI rush and demand for the amount of energy that we're going to need to power the innovation and advancement that we're hoping for. Why is part of your playbook to trim US equities? You sure you want to do that here? We like trimming US equities because you want to buy low sell high right? Which is trimming we're

not saying we're exiting we like it we like holding mega cap tech names but we're looking at where is that opportunity where is it cheaper? We like holding the mega-cap tech names, but we're looking at where is that opportunity, where is it cheaper? PE ratios in the US are 27, 28 times. In Europe, in developed markets, internationally, we're looking closer to 2021. So if we're looking at more diversification,

that gives us the geographic diversification that we might want. We're still being defensive. We still like things like consumer staples. We like healthcare. We're gonna need to eat and we get sick. And so regardless what happens in the world, that bodes well for our portfolios.

But it really is more of a geographic diversification than a statement on lack of faith in the US market. What do you make of that, Lizanne? The view that we've just gotten a little expensive, we've gotten ahead of ourselves, and we're not so sure that earnings are gonna be powerful enough to either justify where we are, or let's even say that we try and have multiple expansion

based on the dream of what we think earnings could potentially be. Look, I think it was a great comment about sort of adding low and trimming high a version of buy low and sell high there that that's the rebalancing strategy that's the key tenant of that

and that helps you stay in gear with the market and not let greed or fear get in the way and that's the way investors should think about it and one of the rebalancing strategies that can be thought of when you have some of these whipsaw kind And not let greed or fear get in the way. And that's the way investors should think about it. And one of the rebalancing strategies that can be thought of when you have some of these whipsaw kind of markets is one that's portfolio based instead of having it be calendar based.

Take advantage of that to stay in gear with the market. So I think that's absolutely the right strategy to think about. If your ultimate goal is to have the bragging rights of I absolutely nailed it at the top or I nailed it at the bottom you know good luck with that that's not a that's not I guarantee that's not going to be a successful long-term strategy so that's the way I think about it think about the setup and think about an opportunity to do some rebalancing so you don't have asset allocation drift and that's the best way to stay in gear.

Do you think Mike that earnings which are going to begin in a couple of weeks are going to be good enough to keep this going? Yeah we'll see. We've had a pretty big run. Nasdaq's up 30% off the bottom just a few weeks ago. You know again the market looks ahead. What I would say and what we believe as a firm is look at the acceleration versus deceleration. Where's the accelerating earnings coming from? As you look into next year, probably small caps, mid caps, the S&P 493, there's a magnificent seven incredible companies, but the earnings go slowing. So, you know, CapEx on AI, it's booming right now. It's slowing from like massively strong levels. Absolutely. Massively strong levels and you have pretty high valuations. And also in many cases,

clients have so much of their portfolio locked up in seven stocks, right? That's a pretty big risk and if you have the earnings growth situation broadening out, you want to have exposure to those other areas. You're still watching rates. I mean, are we still concerned about a backup in rates and the bond market deciding what's going to happen in some respects based on the tax bill and how the tariffs fall together? If you ask me, I'm concerned about everything, but I feel like it's my job to be concerned

about everything. How we shore up our portfolio, regardless of what's happening in the markets, is something that we really focus on. And I work with substantial families and family offices. And for for us it's really key to look at it from not just what could go wrong but where are the opportunities. We really like alternative investments, we like private markets, private equity and private credit. We like idiosyncratic risk. So for instance if you have a

favorite baseball team, if they're losing, you're still buying tickets. You're still watching them. That's the kind of asset class that we like to invest in. You might put a bag over your head as you're sitting in the stands with the cutout because you're embarrassed to be there. You don't want anybody to see it. Yeah, exactly. That's a difference.

But you're still buying those tickets. Yeah. Lizanne, lastly to you, IPO markets woken up. Bank stocks are working really well in that kind of environment. Are we going to start hearing about animal spirits again between M&A and IPOs, and that's going to be another driver of a positive story that felt like it was on pause for the best portion of the last six months? For some segments of the market, I think.

I think that there is sort of itchiness to continue with- deals but I think if you're in an industry or a company. That has their business model heavily influenced by the uncertainty with regard to tariffs. I think that time out the companies have put

themselves in from a cap ex from an investment from an M. M. and A. perspective. That piece doesn't clear up until we're at least past that July eighth- deadline but I think that there. There is a lot of pent up demand there and I think in the AI

space that's where you've not seen much diminution in terms of the spend not just. Directly on AI but Angela's point. The infrastructure around that the power needs that's part of the reason why. It's sectors like industrials that you can utilities that are the best

performers- this year actually not the tech sector. And also one of the things speaking of the tech sector that I want to mention Scott in the lead in you talked about. How amazing it is that the tech sectors doing well in spite of the fact that four of the magnificent seven are underperforming but three of those Magnificent Seven are underperforming, but three of those four stocks that are underperforming are not in the tech sector. Their alphabet is in communication services and Amazon and Tesla are in consumer discretionary.

Consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector this year. So we also have to think about what truly are we talking about when we use this generic label of tech. Yeah, as usual, you make a good point. We'll leave it there. Thanks, Lizanne. Angela, thank you.

And Mike, we'll see you soon as well. We just hit 6,100 on the S&P. We're hanging out right there. And again, we haven't closed above that level since February 20th. We'll watch it closely as we send it to Pippa Stevens for the stocks that she is watching into this close. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Scott.

Well, Coinbase is jumping 12% today with Bitcoin and Ethereum also popping as the crypto universe demonstrates the digital asset market's reactive nature to global geopolitical events. Now, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still below their levels from June 12th. That's the date that Israel launched its initial strike while Coinbase has gained more than 30%. And Snowflake is in the green after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight and lifted its target to 262 Saying the company has become better at execution and faster at innovating The analyst added AI creates a long growth runway for Snowflake's core market a 20% plus

Kager through the end of the decade those shares up 5% Scott. All right, but thank you very much for that Pippa Stevens We're just getting started here on The Bell. Up next, we're tracking a big bounce in the banks. We talked about that a moment ago. More details on what is actually driving that action. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. We are back on The Bell.

Let's send it now to Leslie Picker for a look at the big moves in the banks. Leslie. Hey, Scott, yeah, they keep moving upward. Big bank stocks rising on the prospect of looser regulation, higher for longer interest rates and the easing of geopolitical tensions. On regulation, the Fed is meeting tomorrow to discuss easing capital rules known as the supplementary leverage ratio. Essentially, it's the minimum amount of capital banks need to hold as a percentage of their

assets, including safe assets like U.S. treasuries. Banks have long said it limits their ability to intervene if there's a crisis, and this is expected to be the first in a slew of reductions in capital requirements by Trump administration officials. The macro front also giving a boost to banks today. Fed Chairman Jay Powell telling lawmakers that he's still in no rush to cut rates because the economy is strong. And banks have also benefited from just this broader investor bullishness around the Iran-Israel

truce holding. Hedge funds piling into the sector lately with a note from Goldman yesterday saying global financial stocks were net bought for the ninth straight week last week and at the fastest pace since December of 2024. So it's kind of this trifecta of tailwinds for for these names Scott. You feel like optimism Leslie is is pretty high as we head into earnings in but a couple of weeks? Yeah it really does feel like the highest since that December November timeframe when Trump was first elected everybody expected this onslaught of deregulatory processes

that would kind of lift the brakes on some of the lending activities that the banks have felt like they were in this chokehold for a while. So there was a lot of optimism at that point in time surrounding that, the broader economy. And then they took a step back earlier this year, the tariff concerns, the broader economy and then they took a step back earlier this year the tariff concerns, the broader economic concerns and now it feels like kind of a 180 back to that November December sentiment. All right, Leslie, thank you. Leslie Bicker following the money there.

Up next top technician Jeff DeGraff. He's flagging three must see charts that he says he's watching right now and you need to as well. The bell's right back after this. We're back. Crude oil tumbling again today down more than 5% and falling below $65 a barrel. Here to break down the chart in crude is Renaissance Macros Jeff DeGraph. It's good to see you. Welcome back. Thanks Scott. I mean a remarkable trade when you consider what people were worried about and then in a couple of days how the reversal has taken place.

Pretty stunning. Yeah, it certainly is. Look, you had an overbought condition. That overbought condition was driven by obviously fear and sentiment. But that was taking place in the whole context of a downtrend. And that downtrend has been in place for a long time. So we were telling clients on Friday that if anything were to happen, some significant event that we'd actually be selling crude into that.

That ended up being pretty prescient. Obviously, it happened over the weekend, but there really wasn't anything in the charts or even in the energy stocks that said to us that there was some meaningful turn that had sustainability for crude. We're looking at it as just another example of the downtrend dominating. I think what's interesting from our standpoint is just the other commodity complex, whether it's copper, gold, or even natural gas, actually it still looks pretty good and looks like it's basing and might be in play here between now and the end of the year.

What's the chart look like on the S&P to you right now? We're three quarters of 1% away from a new high. There was a stat I saw the other day where still a good portion with below the 200 day moving average. It's just tech has done so well of late that it certainly helped. It has. You know, when we look at it, financials or leadership here,

I know you were hitting on that before in the previous segment. Really the strongest momentum names, believe it or not, in our work are utilities and financials, which certainly is not a big pro-cyclical, pro-beta, pro-growth type of environment. But look, they're working and they're helping to drive things higher. So I think the market actually looks fine. When we look at our breadth statistics, they're decent. They're not great, but they're decent. They're certainly good enough to poke through a new high. We're sitting at a 6,800 target on the S&P that's probably a little aggressive, but we still certainly think that there's upside. And I would just say, for the record, and interestingly, this year, because of last year, the month of July since 1928

is now the strongest month of the year historically. So that has taken over from December. And we look at seasonality pretty carefully, particularly when there's not a lot of other things going on, and I would just say, look, the next month is probably set up pretty bullishly from the calendar's perspective. I mean, it's worth also pointing out,

these are not your traditionally looked at necessarily defensive utilities, right? I mean where you're once chasing for defense and chasing for yield, now you're literally playing offense on the AI trade and that's why you can make the the delineation between the two views. I agree with you 100% and I think that's why charts are important, right? Because you don't necessarily get wed to some narrative of, oh, why would these work? Because it's so defensive.

It's actually, you know, possibly a brand new story. And I would also say it's happening globally, right? And that's been the case for financials as well. This is a global story. It's not a U.S. phenomenon. It's a global story. And with the case of the financials, I think what's interesting and certainly important is it belies the concerns that are out there around the deterioration in the economy and

credit everything else. If we're really going to have a massive slowdown in aggregate demand, the financials will start to feel that. And they clearly are not suggesting that at this point. But you're feeling pretty good ahead of their earnings, right? They kick off the whole thing in a couple of weeks. Yeah, look, I think earnings the second in July tend to be a better fade than not. That's not to say that you sell the stocks that are reporting. But it's kind of like, what have you done for me after the earnings are out? And that's why you go into these lulls in the late third quarter. So from a precision standpoint, I'd be more inclined to raise some cash

at the beginning of August into the middle part of August for, you know, some better opportunities in, say, late September or October. But that's more nuanced and tactical than anything else. But, no, I think they're going to be fine going into earnings for this quarter. Should I continue to run with this tech trade? I mean, the sector's hitting a new high.

It is that today, right? We have no milestone there. The Q is not that far away, nor is the NASDAQ for that matter. It's bifurcated. If you asked me, what do I think about Tesla? I'd say, yeah, of course, it's a tech stock, officially. If you asked me what I think about Google, I'd say, yes. If you asked me what I think about Apple, I'd say, no If you ask me what I think about Apple, I'd say no.

It's really bifurcated. Most of the semis, and we struggle with this with clients because we tell them this all the time, the relative performance of semiconductors is still negative. The trend is still down. There are a couple standouts for sure. Broadcom and Nvidia look good. Credo looks great. In aggregate, when we look at it on an equal weighted basis, it's still a relatively tired

industry group. So I would focus on software. I'd focus on some of the communication names that kind of gets you in that quasi-tech. But I think it's relatively dangerous to make just a tech call. I think you have to go down into the industry groups and sub-industry groups.

Electronic components is a great example of names. Well, why isn't software tired, but you say chips are? I mean, I think if you put the charts next to each other They wouldn't look that different over the last. I don't know a couple of months maybe Well the well, so that's the beta trade right the beta trade was sort of everything that was high risk went up and Semi certainly did that the difference was that the software names held up better, so they maintained this momentum. And now, in our book anyway, we think that the trade is to come off of beta, to be selling beta names that don't have momentum, stay with the momentum names.

And if they have beta, that's fine. But we think momentum is better. And software just has better momentum here than what we're seeing out of semiconductors. All right. We'll leave it there. Jeff, thanks as always good to see you. We'll see you soon. Good to see you. Thanks Jeff. Up next the biggest movers as we head into the close Pippa Stevens is back checking that for us Pippa. Well one

consumer stock is pumping the brakes and we've got the name to watch coming up next. Near 600 on the Dow we're coming up on 15 minutes before the bell let's get back to Pippa Stevens for the stocks that she's watching. Tell us what you see. Hey Scott advanced Auto parts is dropping 8% after Goldman cut the stock to a sell rating the firm saying the company is losing market share to rivals and That its valuation now looks extended Goldman's new target is a $46 and Visa and MasterCard are moving higher after Wells Fargo reiterated its overweight ratings on the payments providers following the recent pullback.

The firm said the stocks are now trading at a discount to their historical relative valuation to the S&P 500 and that both should post modest revenue and EPS beats this quarter. Scott? All right, Pippa, thank you. Pippa Stevens, still ahead. Carnival sailing higher in today's session We'll tell you what's behind the bounce Bell's coming right back Uber shares getting a big bounce today. Look at that near 8%

Why is that happening? We will tell you in the market zone, which is next We're now the closing belt market zone CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli here to break down these crucial moments of this trading day plus Dierdre Bosa on the rally in Uber and Lyft today and Contessa Brewer on why Carnival is boosting the rest of the cruise stocks. A lot of the travel names are on the move today. Mike strong day. We're pretty much the highs.

We're going for 6,100 on the S&P for the first time since February the 20th. Yeah, I call sessions like this the subtraction of all fears. You know, everything the market was really twisted up about has been relieved, at least on some level. Now, this is mostly the way that the perception pendulum swings. I mean, maybe not that much has actually changed, but a little bit of net dovish inference from Powell's testimony, treasury yields showing some downside, obviously oil collapsing.

This basically, we're setting aside the geopolitics and saying as far as the market's concerned, this is done until proven otherwise. And then it's a matter of just sort of retracing our steps back toward the highs. We got close enough, you knew you were going to make a try for it, and it has been driven by the same theme. So aside from just Mag-7, if I look at the stocks today that are at a high, it's again JP Morgan,

it's Netflix, it's GE Vernova, it's Broadcom, it's Oracle, it's the stuff that kind of got you there in the first place. Meantime, equal weighted S&P, still 4% off its high. Median stock in the index, still 10-11% off its high. So there's kind of room for catch-up if in fact the coast stays clear in terms of the index, still 10, 11% off its, so there's kind of room for catch up if in fact the coast stays clear in terms of the news. Yeah, D, Uber, certainly one of those names helping today, stocks ripping. Yeah, and Lyft as well on an upgrade.

So those shares, they are surging investors. Right now they are appreciating ride sharing's role as the middleman in the Robo taxi race, especially as Atlanta Uber second city with Waymo goes live. But it is still an existential question for the industry as a whole. Tesla, of course, is building its Robo taxi fleet without them. Waymo is only partnering with Uber and select cities and Robo taxis are gaining share that previously belonged to ride sharing. So Scott, maybe the

best way to look at the race and where investors think it could go is through valuation, their earnings ratio. Tesla, of course, way up there getting credit for owning the full stack. Uber, still the middleman. This is interesting. Alphabet owned Waymo isn't being priced into Alphabet stock at all, despite being the current market leader. So maybe some opportunity here too.

Good point you make. Dee, thank you. Dear Jabosa, we talked about cruise lines. Contessa Brewer, why are they moving the way they are today? Because Scott, a rising tide lifts all boats. The tide in this case is second quarter earning good results from Carnival cruise lines up 7% on the day followed by its competitors, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian up 5% Viking up 3% on the day.

It wasn't just that Carnival beat top and bottom line estimates handily or raised its full year guidance, which it did. It's the trajectory the company is illustrating in spite of major macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. There you're seeing the group of them. CEO Josh Weinstein acknowledged that those concerns about what's happening around the world exists,

but he said his company is already surpassing EBITDA and investment goals for 2026. Demand for travel is strong in the luxury segment right now. It's strong for budget travelers. And he says, it's because the value for the vacation dollar in cruising is real. Leisure travelers love the private island experiences that they're getting. They are ramping up their spending on board. And amid questions over where the price of oil is heading, Carnival said its goals on reducing its carbon intensity are paying off in terms of managing its fuel costs. All things that were lifting the entire group, because we've seen those carbon offset that managing your environmental impact is paying off for that whole group as well.

Contessa, thank you. Contessa Brewer, you know, Mike, I mentioned a lot of these travel names. Airlines are rocking today, American Air having a great day, and these others, you know, strong consumer, economy hanging in in oil prices coming down. It all kind of goes in. It does fit together, although that also was the area that was the most tightly leveraged to fears that we were going to have some kind of an economic or geopolitical accident that was going to sustain for a while.

So I think, you know, it makes sense. We're relaxing here a little bit relative to what we thought might happen a few days ago. We should just be aware though, every time this has happened, right? The VIX gets down to 17 plus, it's happened the last few months, you start to feel as if the resilience of the economy and the Fed's gonna be cutting,

and in fact, things are gonna hold together well, maybe something's come along. Are we taking our eye off the ball of tariffs, right? Because I think the market's operating under the assumption that nobody would really wanna foul up this situation right now where we're not really seeing the inflationary effect and the aggregate measures of inflation.

Would they then go back, would the president go then and decide to get hawkish again on tariffs? And as this deadline comes through, is that gonna be something that at least gives us an excuse to rethink this? Also, the economic surprises aren't looking great. It's not as if the economy's falling apart. The services at PMI yesterday was pretty good.

But I do think you have to be aware that a lot of what's changed is psychology over the last few months. We were here in February. You were 6,100 for the first time, near the highs four months ago. In that four months, earnings estimates have gone up. So the market is not as expensive as it was back then.

But it does shows you, even though new highs are bullish, it doesn't mean you can just sort of forget the things that might below the surface be complicating the picture. Of course, I asked the same question earlier, whether you're really going to get to new highs and potentially beyond that, and then you want to take the risk of wrecking the economy and the same stock market that has been going up on optimism because of your tariff policy?

Well, that's the question. Or does that feel like that's money in the bank that can be spent down because you are at new highs and therefore you can reassert what you think needs to be done on trade. Look, maybe the administration is going to be happy. We're collecting 20 billion bucks a month on tariffs. Maybe that's enough at least to kind of pad out the budget situation and you don't have to go with the onerous additional so-called reciprocal tariffs.

Who knows? And maybe it does just kind of recede into the background. But I do think it's interesting that people seem to be operating under the assumption that this is somehow going to be a painless tax that we're administering to the globe, at least at this point, or maybe just absorbable given everything else, the size of the opportunity, the quality of the companies that are at the forefront of it, and the fact that people got really scared out of this market a few months

ago and big money still has not rebuilt their exposure to equities and I think that's been one of the biggest backstops of the market for a few months. Alright, good stuff. Mike, thank you. That's Mike Santoli. Alright, we're going to go out here. The tech sector is going to go out at a new record high. S&P looks like it will not get 6100 at the close. There's always tomorrow. How's the event in the O.K.?