Closing Bell - Closing Bell: What Can Get Stocks Humming Again? 8/7/25

Episode Date: August 7, 2025

The Wharton School’s Professor Jeremy Siegel tells us what he thinks the next catalyst for stocks might be. Plus, Saira Malik from Nuveen is mapping out her market playbook. And, top technician Jason Hunter is highlighting three things he is watching that could signal a pullback for stocks. 

All right, guys, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or bakeout begins with another choppy day for the major averages. We'll show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation. We really have been sliding deeper into the red as the day has progressed. We're kind of hanging out there. Been in a bit of a range, too. Geopolitical concerns as well today as more tariff talk is all being blamed for the skittishness within the markets. The sector picture largely mixed today. In terms of individual names making news and making moves, Apple higher yet again, Invidia hitting another new high, and several other chip names are nicely higher, even as President Trump threatens 100% tariffs on the chip space.

Eli Lilly shares having their worst day in some 25 years after a disappointing late-stage study on its obesity pill. Fortinet slammed after its earnings and its outlook. We'll watch shares over this final stretch. It takes us to our talk of the tape. What gets stocks humming again? Let's ask Wharton School Professor of Finance, Jeremy Siegel. He's also Chief Economist for Wisdom Tree. Welcome back.

It's nice to see you as always. Good to see you, Scott. You still like this market? Yeah, I still like it. I think there were some disappointments today. I actually think the Bloomberg report that maybe Waller is the top candidate rather than Warsh. He is not seen as a dovish for Fed chair, and I think that that kind of discouraged the market may a little bit. Continuing claims, boy, did take a jump. Really, we have the situation.

They're not firing, but they're not hiring. And so, you know, how do you deal with that situation? And then, of course, we've had a couple of tepid treasury options today, the 30-year, 10-year, wasn't great. Yesterday, you know, and after this big run, I mean, it wouldn't be, you know, surprising to see with those news items some sort of a back down here. Is it the pause that refreshes? Do you think it's one of those dips that's going to be bought? Yeah, I think it is. I mean, because the earnings are really coming in so well, and the guidance is coming in really

well, you know, given the upcoming tariffs. I mean, they're beginning to be able to specify how, you know, know, how much the tariffs will cost, and that quantifiable amount, I think, is doable for most firms, to say the waste now, you know, Trump announced new tariffs, but you also sort of blew this hole through the tariffs, you know, it's saying, you know, to the chip manufacturers, you know, start building something here, and, you know, you won't have any tariff. Of course, you showed at the, you know, at the top of the hour, what's happening in the chip companies, and particularly Apple. I mean, I think that that was a really, you know, a big,

you know, positive surprise. I think that continues to show real flexibility by the Trump administration about these tariffs. And, you know, basically, you come to the table, you're going to, you're going to get a good deal. Those that don't, you know, will be put on those tariffs, but most are coming and getting deals. Sounds like you would agree with what UBS is suggesting today, Professor, where they say the fundamentals look to keep the markets supported despite the tariff impacts. Our base case remains, they say that the U.S. effective tariff rate will settle at around 15 percent, enough to weigh on growth and lift inflation, but not enough to derail the U.S. economy or the equity rally. That sounds pretty much like it melds with your view. Yeah, that exact. I mean, it will slow down inflation. Now, you know, most are, you know, it's going to start showing up. But, you know, it's going to be in the 3% range. And I mean, I'm Waller and Bowman. I mean, others, you know, I've urged Powell to say, listen, I've got to see through these tariffs. This is a one-time tax increase. Don't treat it as, you know, too much demand driving those prices upward. And, you know, that's, I mean, obviously Trump.

on someone that represents that view, if that view gets more pervasive on the Fed, then, you know, then we should see those rates go down because we do have inversion of the curve. You know, I look at the Fed funds versus the 10-year, you know, and Fed funds at 4-4, you know, in 10-year at 4-2 does give us room to move down there. And I feel like we're – I feel like we're at a – It feels like a dovish inflection point. Bowman, Waller, Daly, and even Kashkari, to some degree, have sounded more dovish than not more recently. And I find it interesting that you would suggest the market could potentially be unsettled with the notion that Waller might be the next Fed chair when even you say what we all heard.

He wanted a rink. Wower is a dove. I mean, he doesn't sound quite as doveish as Worse. I would say that before this news item, and, you know, how accurate these, we don't know how accurate these items are and what's in his mind. I mean, all we learned, of course, was the Besson was taken off the table. I would say that most people thought that Kevin Warsh was probably the frontrunner. And he seemed to be more doveish. I mean, I think, you know, listen,

Woller is an absolutely outstanding choice. A really scholar, I mean, I mean, he has all the credentials. We should all feel very comfortable with them. But I think it marks the fact that I think, you know, the bond market sees a slowdown and they want those rates to come down. So, you know, if Wohar, you know, may not be quite as fast in putting them down as Warsh did, you know, it adds just that, you know, a little bit of uncertainty there. But again, I mean, I would agree

with what you said right at the top. Pause, it refreshes. I mean, the earnings are coming in, almost at record-beat announce. We get actually the unusual situation where far-out earnings estimates are actually increasing for the S&P 500. Almost always they're brought down because they're overly bullish. But I think now we realize that they were brought back way too much. when we feared a big trade war and those, you know, reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. Now those are beginning to go up. So the forward-looking PE, and, you know, again, there's AI, and the hope of AI is still there. I mean, you know, CHAPT-5 is coming out and moving forward with such momentum there.

But, you know, once you exclude those which are, I think, still reasonably priced, You still have an 18-19 P.E. going forward with rising earnings and potential Fed cuts, it seems hard for me to see that the market has reached a long-term top here. You think there's any doubt that they'll cut in September? I think, I mean, I think the market thinks around 75 percent, and I think it's going to greater than that. I mean, you know, given the revision that we had on that labor market reporting, and I said that had those data been available to Powell, they probably would have cut a quarter point on July 30th. So, you know, certainly we've got, you know, a lot more data

before, you know, mid-September to come through. And the inflation data is, listen, it's not going to move towards the 2%. It's going to be stuck in the 2.5 to 3% range because those tariffs, are going to push upward, but we're really going to get that slowdown, I think, you know, on labor market growth, that GDP growth is, you know, certainly not tepid, you know, certainly is tepid enough that we don't have a roaring economy. So we're looking forward to 2026, the terrorists in place, the certainty is in place, reacceleration of earnings, lower fed funds, and AI, finally being introduced by those, you know, non-AI firms to reduce costs, offset tariffs, and keep margins high. I think that's the bull case. All right, yeah, it's a bullish checklist, if you

will. Let's expand the conversation, Professor, if we could. I want to bring in Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner and CNBC contributor Requisite Capitals, Bryn Talkington. Ladies, it's good to add you to the conversation. Ellen, you listen to what the professor had to say. Do you agree or disagree? That's a great outlook. I do agree that that's the bullish case. I do have a little bit of concern about what could happen come around October when we're getting the next set of earnings. And I only say that because there's not a huge percentage of the tariff landscape out there that I would call a steady state. We're still sorting that out. So we don't know that we've escaped the tariff uncertainty. And we don't know if these lofty guidance that we're seeing from companies is

actually something that's achievable. And so I don't think we're out of the woods there for some bibles in the equity market. But the way I look at this is the, and it's about a 95% probability that the now priced in that the Fed will cut in September. The Fed takes the path of least resistance. They only push back against the market if they think the market has it wrong. And there's no reason for Chair Powell to push back on that expectation. So you think that he uses Jackson Hole? Because you follow the Fed so closely, you think he uses Jackson Hole to set the table? He doesn't even need to. He doesn't even need to. You let it ride. If the market is pricing in a cut and you don't think the market has it wrong, you let it

ride. So he doesn't need to set that in motion. The market has already set in motion. So if the Fed is coming up on the next meeting and they think the market has it wrong, is reading the data wrong, then he could use Jackson Hole to push back. But there's no need to. They're sitting, looking at the same path of jobs with a three-month moving average. It's moved from $150,000 at the start of the year to around 30-something thousand now. And it doesn't matter whether you think that's the real data or not. Set that aside. The market trades off that data. The Fed makes decisions off of that data. That is a real slowdown in the labor market. And Chair Powell has to talk consensus, right? He's a consensus builder. His job as chair of the Fed is to convey the committee's

consensus. I don't believe that he is so far out of Waller's camp. They usually do not stray too far from each other's just that Waller can speak more freely and chair pal can't and you don't want to get in a situation where you have you know more dissenters and then it's it's not only a bad look it has the probability of becoming bad policy if you're viewed as the one who seems to be the outlier on the wrong side of the boat yeah but i agree with jeremy i love waller i think he'd be a great leader of the fed i think that the market should love the possibility that he could be fed chair because he's not going to do the wrong thing and possibly cut it as far more so than the economy needs.

Just look at the long end of the yield curve. The term premium will tell you who the markets want for Fed Chair and they're going to want Waller more so than a Warsh. Okay, so a vote for Waller. Bryn, you like the market? Same question I asked the professor. Do you still like it? I think you have to.

I think where I've been saying is you've got to stick with the, stick with who brought you to the party and that continues to be, you know, tech, obviously the industrials around tech, continue just to march forward while, you know, energy and health care, God love them, because those have been left out, left for dead. And so I think you're going to continue to see this huge bifurcation in the market. You would need a catalyst to change that. And I think to echo what Professor Siegel and Ellen said is, you know, earnings were so strong, but to dig it on Professor Siegel is like guidance, because earnings are backwards-looking, right?

Guidance is forward-looking, and we had a very strong guide with the majority of companies. And so I think right now that we are going to be in this resting period where August just seasonally is vulnerable. We have earnings now done, for the most part, outside of Nvidia and Dell, you know, two big tech companies. But so I think you could see some downside in August, especially as the rhetoric kicks up. But that really sets up for later on in the year, I think, for this market to come. continue to march higher unless there's some exogenous event, which it's exogenous, so we can't control it. We don't know what it is. Does it set up, Professor, for a broader picture? I mean, I'm looking at a list that I've just written down. If you have more tariff clarity, which it

certainly seems like you do relative to what you had before, which was a windshield that was impossible to see out of, earnings hang in there, deregulation, a pickup in capital markets activity like IPOs, another successful one today. And then you put, don't fight the Fed on top of all of that. It's a pretty good mix. Yeah. You know, when I wrote the first edition of stocks for a long run, September was the worst month of the year by far. And I think as people got to know that, they began to say, well, then I better sell in August. So then the second half of August became the worst month as everyone tried to beat what had historically been September. So, yeah, I mean, there is some seasonal weakness. Second half of August, you know, people are, you know,

all their bills from their summer vacations come due, school expenses come due. Hey, you know, days get shorter, winter is coming. There's a little bit of seasonality there. But, you know, I think the basic tenets of this bull run are still intact. Yeah, I hear you on those bills come and do, no doubt. But what about, Elle, the list, you know, we do have more tariff clarity. I know there's still a bit of uncertainty, but even, you know, Brian Moynihan, who sees things pretty much on the front lines of everything related to the economy, pointed that out yesterday, among the fact that you may have a slowdown in job creation, but you don't have

layoffs. Right. And then earnings, as you said, have been pretty good. Don't fight the Fed feels like a powerful thing to play against. Yeah, yeah. And always, we know who loses when you fight the Fed. Bears? So I think, yeah, bears tend to lose.

And Chair Powell is very nimble. And so don't ever count him out that he can't react quickly when nimbleness is what's needed. We're going to have some more revisions that are going to make the data look worse in September, which is going to lay the case for them continuing to cut after cutting in September. It doesn't tell you how far they need. to go. And then as we roll into 2026, you've got a larger than usual tax refund season coming, the no tax on tips, the no tax on Social Security, productivity that continues to benefit from all of the incentives and this two-horse race on AI and defense. And you're setting up for

a stronger 2026. Then, Bryn, do we have a catch-up in other areas of the market beyond what you spoke about in terms of big tech? Why wouldn't you under that scenario that we just paint? We should. I mean, we should have a catch-up and, well, some financials have done well, industrials, but still the big sectors of, you know, health care and energy, especially with what Trump's going to come out with the pharma companies, et cetera, and the OPEC. So I think it's not going to be a 11-sector catch-up. I think that energy and health care probably stay under pressure, but there's other catch-up within those other sectors minus health care and energy for the time being. You agree with that? Yeah. I think the thing with AI is coming from an economics background, right? AI is a generalized technology that threads through everything. So when we talk about Meg 7 or being very tech-heavy, these stocks are not just exposed from a pure play AI theme. They're exposed to multiple, multiple themes that are supported from all kinds of long-term trends and angles around the economy.

That's me thinking with my thematic investor hat on. Yeah. A big pickup in productivity. it's going to be interesting to watch. Professor, we'll leave it there. Ellen, thank you so much. Bryn, you're going to stick with me because we have some more to talk about. Steve Kovac has been following this

big move for Apple over the last couple of trading days. And it's a nice follow-through today and some more positivity from the street too. Yeah, that's right, Scott. Up 3% today. It was up 5% yesterday, just wiping out a lot of the negativity

around this name, I guess. And look, it's because the worst of the tariffures are gone, at least for now, events, that monumental event in the Oval Office with President Trump and Tim Cook. And the street is really cheering Cook's wrangling of the president. Let me quote you here from Eric Woodring over at Morgan Stanley. He said the semi-conductor tariffs for Apple, they're pretty much off the table next week.

We heard the president say as much yesterday as well. But despite the fact, Apple won't be doing final assembly in the United States, which you might remember, Scott, was what the president has been saying all year would be the condition for Apple to dodge those tariffs. Now Morgan Stanley says to expect more press releases from other companies, reminding the president again about their U.S. operations in order to get a last minute reprieve from those tariffs. Now, Apple is still under pressure this year.

I don't have to tell you that. They have to figure out artificial intelligence. And there's one other thing to watch for this month, a really big catalyst. UBS analysts pointing out, we have to wait for the fate of that Google search partnership with the DOJ decision coming any day now. about a fifth of Apple's $100 billion a year in services business is at risk if the DOJ decides they have to bust that one up. It's been an extraordinary couple of days.

Bryn, you own the stock. What do we think here? Are we at an inflection point finally for Apple shares now that maybe we have a detente if you want to refer to it as that between the president and the CEO? I think we're at an inflection point. That is one of them. And as you know, I've talked about on halftime, I sold half time. my position in December. And this week, I've been buying it back, starting to buy some back.

I think that the earnings call was excellent. They beat revenues by $5 billion. So it was up 9%. So while iPhone sales were only up to, they were just checking the boxes across all of their other verticals. And, you know, Tim Cook was really clear. This was their AI is the most important structural shift. This is their business to lose. And when you look at the, seven tiny acquisitions they've made this year. Four of those acquisitions were all around AI, around hallucinations, around small language models, around AI security. And so I feel like Apple's really setting up to deliver, let's say, on a 17 or an 18 phone, being able to have us go into our ecosystem securely and be able to use AI. And so I still think that this is the

time that you can start legging back in. I will say this, technically, 220. is the 200-day moving average. So I think that 209 to 221, it's still going to be range-bound. But I decided to start rebuilding my position at these levels. So I think next year, as I start rolling this out, is going to be a game changer for the company. Just get your take on Nvidia, too, which hit a new high today. You feel okay about where tariffs appear to be, that the worst of the talk is not nearly as going to be as the bite's not going to be nearly as bad? I mean, for today, right, there's still no agreement with China, right?

It's like they're going to kick the can, I believe, another 90 days. As it stands right now, we'll say Nvidia and Apple are exempt. You know, Nvidia's numbers are going to come out, I think, the 27th or 28th. The stock's done really well running into earnings, so will it move much higher? I'm not sure. But it's just so nice to see this stock finally break above that 150 that it had been in for well over a year. Yeah, big up trend. obviously that it's been in. Bryn, thanks, Bryn Talkington. We'll see you soon.

Let's send it now to Christina Parts of Nevelos for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. Christina. Let's start with shares of the Texas base rocket maker fireflies surging after making its market debut here at the NASDAQ just a few hours ago. Shares are up 44% of the stock priced in its initial public offering yesterday at 45 bucks each, which was above its expected range. Now it's at 6470. There's a huge crowd partying upstairs. Duolingo hiked current quarter revenue guidance and its trends, and it's translating actually right now to a banner day for Duolingo as well. The stock government was 15%. The language learning app is off its days at earlier highs, but still soaring just on this strong earnings report that it posted.

Last but not least, Fortnite shares moving in the opposite direction after issuing weaker than expected revenue guidance. Following its report, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, Keybank, all downgraded this cybersecurity name, And that's why you're seeing shares plunge 24%. Scott. All right, Christina, thanks. Back to you in a bit. We're just getting started here. Up next, Neveen, Sarah Malik is mapping out her market playbook.

She'll join us next. With stocks mostly range-bound and heading into a challenging season, seasonal stretch. What is the best strategy right now for investors? Sarah Malick is head of Newveen Equities and Fixed Income, CIO and Chair of Newveen's Investment Committee joins us now. It's nice to see you. Good to see you, Scott. So we have an undeniable pause. Is it just that? Do we need to reverse ourselves lower or where do we go from here and why? Well, Scott, we are leading to low liquidity in late August. And as you mentioned, September is traditionally the worst month of the year for the S&P 500. I think there's three other factors

impacting the markets, and that's earnings, which overall, while they've been strong, we've seen some mixed single stock earnings, employment markets and, of course, drama over the Fed. So starting with earnings, while we expect earnings when all of a sudden done to grow about over 10% year over year, which will be about double what consensus was coming in, the leaders of earnings are tech, and tech earnings have been more mixed. Finally, we got the payrolls data for last month, which was weak at around 73,000 payrolls. ISM data has been weak, so we're concerned about the economy. And of course, the Fed drama about who will be the next Fed chair is making the markets a little bit nervous. What's the message do you think in the fact that, yes,

we've had a chop. And it's the NASDAQ, which has been weathering that choppiness a little better than the others. Is it a sign that you as an investor want to just stay with the tried and true AI hyperscaler? because trying to go elsewhere is just going to be too difficult if we're going to have a more turbulent August and then certainly September. Well, the drivers of the NASDAQ would be threefold. One is that AI trend that should remain in place. Second is the 10-year yield on treasuries,

which has been moderating, which is positive for technology stocks. And if you are worried about the economy slowing, that's usually positive for strong structural growers with their own levers to pull. And that's tech stocks. think the NASDAQ is the place to be. The AI boom is alive and well. Within the choppiness we've seen with tech earnings, the main theme has been continued tens or even 100 billion

plus investments in billions in AI and how that can increase productivity and revenue growth growing forward. Do you think rates are going to continue to move lower? That'll be the potential catalyst in September. Given where employment came in last month, if we see another weak print for August payrolls, I think that would seal the state. deal for a 25 basis point rate cut, and I think 50 should be brought back onto the table. We may even see that. As for the 10-year, as long as the economy is showing signs of slowing, I think that leads 10-year treasuries to drift a little bit lower, but not so much lower. Our view is a range of about 4 to 4.5 percent is the right range for the tenure for the rest of

this year. What justifies a 50 basis point move? I mean, I hear you on the revisions of the jobs numbers, but the economy still looks pretty good to many watchers of it. If you go back to September 24, which is when we got that 50 basis point rate cut, it came after three months of sub-triple-digit returns in terms of payroll print. And so we are almost at that point right now. And remember, the economy was strong back then also. So you could see a 50 basis point rate cut come back onto the table. The Fed has stated that they're watching the employment markets very closely.

The other side of the coin, of course, is what does it mean for inflation? And that's going to be the Fed's conundrum. how do these tariffs impact inflation going forward? We've not seen a tariff bump on inflation yet, but that could be to come. So that's where the Fed balances. Our base case is 25 basis points for September, unless we see something much more dire with August payrolls later this month. But do you think we're going to have a pickup and inflation beyond what some are suggesting

could be just a one-time thing? I think that likely it's a one-time bump in terms of how tariffs impact inflation, and the Fed has said that they will look through that one-time bump. If you look at core inflation beyond any impact of tariffs, which we haven't really seen yet, inflation has been trending towards the Fed's target, and that's the good news. So I think inflation is in a good spot, but we probably will see a one-time bump due to tariffs and then move on from there. What's your favorite part of the market right now?

Well, we like infrastructure. I mean, all we hear more and more about is more investment in the U.S. infrastructure on public and private side has been a call for our global investment committee for many quarters now. I think investing in America is going to lead to much more infrastructure, AI data centers, upgrading our electrical grids in order to be able to fund all of these new investments and building the necessity-based infrastructure in the U.S. All of that is a multi-year tailwind for infrastructure. I mentioned we also do like artificial intelligence trades because that is going to be a structural growth theme going forward

where companies continue to invest. I mean, when you talk about infrastructure and dividend paying stocks and dividend growers, Are we talking about power players in AI, utilities and things like that, which appear to be, frankly, the new growth stocks, not the, you know, boring staples that they've been for decades? Well, the segments behind infrastructure tend to be utilities, waste management, and midstream pipelines. I think utilities are a strong play for infrastructure going forward. They're going to be needed in order to fund the electricity that's needed as we use more and more AI. we're going to need to upgrade our grids as we shift more to using renewable energy. That's going to be a key sector going forward, and that's a big part of the infrastructure play.

I mean, they've been traditionally so defensive, but it doesn't feel like that anymore, does it? No, I think that utilities actually, who know, they could be the new growth stocks. I mean, I'm being a little bit joking there, but I think that utilities actually do have a growth engine behind them. And so they are a nice way to play the AI theme going forward. I don't even think you have to joke about it. I think people view them as such. And by the way, if you look at the charts, they tell a pretty compelling story. Sarah, we'll see you soon.

Thank you. Yeah, thanks for having me. All right. Up next, top technician Jason Hunter, highlighting three key things he is watching right now for the market's next move. He'll tell you what they are next. All right, welcome back. Technically speaking, stocks are still in an uptrend, but that doesn't mean risks aren't lurking in the charts. Jason Hunter, head of technical strategy for J.P. Morgan, joins us now. Post and I. Welcome back.

Oh, thanks for Army Scout. So the key area, 6150 to 6200, we're at 637 as we speak. Why are you watching that? So that's, you know, we're the big supporters right now, the 50-day moving average. There's uptrent line support in that area. and that's really been support through most of the month of July. So from a technical perspective, if you're just playing as a trend follower, that's the support you want to see hold. That's what held after the payrolls report weakness. Do you think we're at risk? Well, number one, August is still seasonally positive, but as we roll into September.

Barely. Yes, but yes, we roll into September, things do change. And seasonally September to mid-October is the period where the market comes under risk. So what we're watching right now are how the market trades through August. I think it's going to be range-bound above that 6,200. but I'll watch how the internals trade and how other markets trade and decide where we go from there. The market has taken on an interesting character. Beyond the mega caps, which always get the spotlight and suck a lot of the oxygen out of the room,

lower quality, high beta stocks have kind of filled the gap at any need in this market, and it's kept it resilient. Does that go away? And if that does happen, is that one of the things that pulls one of the, legs off of the chair? Yeah, that's exactly what I'm watching now. If you look at the most shorted stocks, as you said, the high beta, that really took off like a rocket in late June, and really for most of July it was to the upside.

What we're seeing now is the AI thematic tech, the normal heavyweights, the mag seven, those charts still look okay and they're still moving to the upside. But when you look at some of the higher beta indices, the individual names, those are starting to show a little bit of a topping pattern. So I'd watch for rotation to quality, to your traditional defenses. Mag 7 for right now is quality because they make solid earnings. You think they're also defensive in some regard? In a sense, you know, for someone that started in the early 2000s, it sounds bizarre.

I know it sounds crazy, but that's kind of what they become. You can actually, I mean, investors have really been playing both sides of the ledger there, play a little offense and you can play defense when you need to. That's exactly right. Now's rates look like they're starting to trend a bit lower, especially after the payrolls report, maybe some of the other defenses like utilities, staples, health care, start to do better as well. that will be another warning sign as well. What about, you know, industrials by a smidge are like the best performing group year to date?

Financials have had a good run as well. What role do they play in this conversation? Well, you know, financials kind of fit in with the high bait and so as far as the chart patterns concerned. They look like they've topped out a little bit on a short-term basis. And, you know, as the other markets, especially after payrolls have moved back to the highs, financials haven't gone with them. They're kind of consolidating a mid to the low end of the re-term. recent, you know, very tactical trading range.

And industrials, I would put kind of right there with tech, because a lot of the industrial strength has been part of the AI theme, the infrastructure build-out, power and utilities and things like that. Yes. Yeah, so that's traded oddly with technology. And if you look at the industrials index, it still looks like it's kind of an acceleration mode, a little deceleration, but not as much as the broad market scene right now. I've been asking all day the buy the dip mentality.

certainly has worked. There was some indication last week by some data, I think even out of your firm, that maybe the retail investor is getting a little bit tired of buying the dip. You suggest that if you do go below that resistance level, and even if it maybe goes a little bit further than that, that you should be an aggressive buyer. Yeah, so if you look at that 6150, 6200, the medium term support below that is down at roughly the 5,800 and a bit below there. So that's more or less a 10% pullback from the peak. I'm guessing if we do get September-October weakness, that's about as far as it's going to go. And that should be solid support.

That's where the market broke out from after the brief basing period that we had in April. And really, I believe it was when we shifted, attacked on the China trade policy and load those tariffs. That's where the market gapped out from. That should be support for the market as we go into the fall. The other idea of U.S. versus the rest, Jeffrey Gunlock told me earlier this week he still likes areas outside of the United States for the better returns. What do you think about the charts in that regard? Well, if you look at what's interesting is as high beta and the underperformers squeezed in July,

so did the China-linked markets as well, including the CSI 300. That's moved all the way up to its broader range resistance. That looks now like a multi-quarter, but a multi-year base pattern. My guess is it probably doesn't break out before we get some type of correction and consolidation into the early fall, but certainly for late this year, early next, that could be an interesting play. Europe's really stalled as the U.S. has picked back up here in the spring and summer, but that doesn't quite look like a top pattern. It looks like a corrective range.

It's bouncing off the lows of that support there. Can Europe outperform the U.S.? I think we'd probably need to see the large cap tech really stall out for Europe. Now, they could start to perform with the U.S. though. I also feel like it's such a wildcard this time around with the seasonals because if you get rate cuts starting in September, depending on how the market views the reasoning behind the rate cut, whether it has a almost preemptive feeling to it, that it's judged well so you don't have a September to forget. Yes. Yeah, so I like long to your notes. We're suggesting that

choose five's curve steepener. They're all in the direction of a rate cut. And it's just that the flavor of the rate cut is going to matter a lot of news around it. Is it lower inflation data or is it further weakness in the jobs and the spending data? I think that's obviously going to matter a lot. One way or the other, though, we do like long front end and curve steeper trades. All right, good stuff. Jason, thanks. It's good to see again.

Jason Hunter, J.P. Morgan. Up next, we track the biggest movers as we head into the close. Christina's back. Tell us more. I am. One vacation rental stock getting hammered on slower growth warnings while a coffee chain is surging on raised guidance. We'll break down the numbers when we come back. Welcome back. We're getting some breaking news on the Fed front. Steve Leesman joining us with that. What are we learning here, Steve? Steve.

So what we have, Scott, is a Bloomberg report that the president, intends to nominate Stephen Mirren, the chair of his Council of Economic Advisors, to the open seat created by Adriana Kugler's departure, which I believe is tomorrow, is her last day. So he might even, I don't know, when the Senate has a chance to take it up. That's more of a Megan Casella question, but certainly for the October meeting, if that's the case, and the outside chance, I suppose, for the September meeting, but that would be very difficult. I mean, the story is this is a gentleman who has been, in many ways, an intellectual,

architectural architect of a lot of what the president is doing, the idea of keeping the US dollar as the reserve currency, but basically devaluing it to help U.S. manufacturing. He has been a critic of the trade deficit, and also believes me one of the key authors of this idea of the Mar-a-Lago Accords, which talks about, among other things, that crammed down, essentially, issuing a hundred-year bond of foreign holders of some U.S. debt that they have to hold, and a non-interest-bearing account. So that's a little bit worrisome, but the idea of rethinking trade,

that is a big thing about what the president is all about. And I'm not sure how much that has to do with the Fed, but certainly running a looser monetary policy would be something that would devalue the U.S. dollar. I mean, the president also clearly doesn't want to leave anything to chance. I mean, as much as he can impact it. When it comes to getting rate cuts, he's going to put somebody in this role

whom he knows will cut rates like he wants or will make the argument for it. Yeah, I think you said it exactly right. You know, for the president, what we've seen over now one term and one half of one year is that personal relationships are very important to him. He obviously works with the CEA chair. The CEA chair has been out there on our air quite a bit, offering vigorous defenses for the president's economic policies and the results. And that is very significant to the president, which is why, Scott, this other report, again,

we have to credit Bloomberg on this, that Waller is a potential top pick. It's a little bit early yet for that because our understanding is Waller hasn't yet met with the president, right? And we both know how important that those personal relationships are, those meetings are for this president. So I would not say Waller is a top choice to you, me what happened after he met with the president. I hear you, but I don't know if you heard Ellen Zentner on our program a little while ago suggesting that he would be just perfect, that he would be a really good Fed chair for the years ahead.

Did you have a chance to hear her say that? I did not, Scott. There was an interesting suggestion to Steve made earlier by Jeremy Siegel that there was some kind of market uneasiness. with the report that it would be Waller rather than Worse, which I find interesting considering Waller has publicly made the case that they should have cut. So let me unpack that a little bit. You know I'm a huge fan of Ellen Zentner,

but the trouble with Ellen Zentner saying that is somebody who she thinks is great might be the opposite person of who the president thinks is great. And maybe you understand what I'm getting at here. Ellen Zentner would certainly be a person, I would believe, who would back a more conventional choice, somebody who would support basically the current means of the Federal Reserve making policy. Whether or not that's what the president wants, I guess I would have my doubts. I think he wants somebody who is more of a supporter at the Fed of his policies and more wanting to run policy according to it. So Ellen Zentner's support is a little dubious.

I will say also Paul McCulley on our air thinks Waller is a great person. Waller has made a very strong defense, Scott, as you know, of cutting rates, but done in economic and monetary policy terms, not essentially in political terms. He's steered clear of that. Let me be clear, too, that the president has just posted on truth social, which gives you, I think, more insight into what he's thinking about Mr. Mirren and how long he might be in that role. Yes, he's being appointed to the just vacated seat, he says, until January 31st of 2026, then goes on to say, quote, in the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement. So the search is going to continue while Mr. Mirren fills what is going to be a vacated seat.

Steve, that mean anything to you? Well, that's obviously very important. That confirms the story. And obviously, I take my hat off to Bloomberg, which had it first. So there it is. It's fascinating that Mirren is not being tapped for the position permanently. That's what I mean. I don't know who else.

Yeah, I don't know who else they have in mind in that regard or why they wouldn't unless they want to bring him back for CEA chair. But by the way, just so you know, it is a common route for people to go from CEA chair to the Fed. I think Bernanke ran that route as well before he became Fed chair. So that's a kind of normal thing. And the question becomes a bit like the Supreme Court. when you get sent over there, do you operate with the independence that you have or do you not operate that way? You know, we've seen Supreme Court justices dramatically disappoint their parties with certain

decisions they've made, and sometimes they have made them feel really good about the choices. So that's one of the things that happens. It is interesting to me that the president has yet to comment on the Waller thing, but my guess is they'll have a meeting before long, and we'll see how that goes. there's still wars, still has it. But I do think that I'm interested to know what Jeremy was talking about, because I think that Waller would be the choice that the markets would applaud the most out of the three that are out there.

That's why I was surprised when he suggested otherwise. Steve, thank you. Yeah. Good context and insight, of course, from Steve Leesman. Still ahead, your earnings rundown. We'll tell you what to watch for when Wynn reports. At the top of the hour, closing bells coming right back. All right, we're now in the closing bell market zone.

CNBC senior markets commentator. Mike Sandtoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus two big earning supports we are watching for an O.T. Mackenzie Segalo is looking at Block Contestate Brewer is watching win. Michael, been one of those days and mostly in the red. Mostly in the red. You know, down a percent and a quarter in the S&P 500 from the morning highs at a lot of sort of treacherous action below the surface, right? You've got meltdown in software

stocks. Eli Lilly really seems to knock a lot of the other crowded large cap growth names for a loop. Visa was down 3% earlier. And yet, it's kind of a 50-50 up-down, pretty modest move within the week's range for the S&P 500. So I guess you have to say, we got this offsetting action. It's not necessarily, you know, kind of raising huge alarms, but it does show you that there were not a lot of buyers at the top end of this range today. Gold broke out as well. And I don't know that that's really a verdict on anything, but it's worth noting that a lot of folks were saying when we were expecting Fed rate cuts and, you know, in a resilient economy, gold was having trouble making new highs. We've made another one now. So we'll put that in

the let's watch it, column. Okay. Earnings in OT. McKenzie Segalis on Block. Tell us what to watch for. Okay. So last quarter, Scott, Cash App, Block's consumer money platform was a real pain point. Gross load to just 7% in March. CEO Jack Dorsey flat out admitted that they took their eye off the ball. Now they are in reset mode. You've got April snapping back to 13%. And Cash App just dropped its first major P2P feature in two years, opening access to Apple Pay and Google Pay users in a bid to reignite momentum. Guidance is seen as de-risked with more upside ahead of its square, more upside ahead of Square's product velocity holds, and if Cash-App to delivers on re-accelerating monthly actives, not just engagement.

Still, block shares down 12% this year. Morgan Stanley just cut to equal weight, saying that much of the upside may be priced in, but BTIG lifted its target to $80, betting that cash app's credit push could surprise at the upside. All right, McKenzie, thanks so much. Contessa, how about win? Chairs of Win Scott have been picking up momentum over the last three months. Of 28% matching movement in Macau.

Visitation has picked up there. Gambling revenue has been increasing. But there's been a shift. There are more people coming in just for a day, and they're taking advantage of shows and shopping and other non-gaming options. Will we see a Vegas-like shift where entertainment and food and beverage become collectively as important or more important than gambling? It has always seemed highly unlikely in Macau. Also, we may hear more about market share. Las Vegas Sands admitted that it lost some. I'll be looking to see whether that's wins gain. and then the tale of two cities, Macau is hopping. Las Vegas has been sweating international visitation sliding,

especially from Canada. Other casinos, Caesars, namely among them, reporting lower room rates and a tough summer. Can Wynn stand out in Sin City's summer slump? You try saying that five times fast. The street expects Wynn to report an adjusted profit of 121 per share on revenue of $1.75 billion. The shares down just fractionally right now.

That's why you're a professional. Contessa. You did it well. Contessa Brewer. Mike Santoli's back with us. We need a catalyst. Yeah. We're searching for a catalyst to take this market in one direction or the other. Sometimes, you know, just kind of the context can be its own catalyst. For example, if we get a continued pile up of dovish Fed speak that gives people assurance, we're not going to have to sustain an economic air pocket to get easier rates. Maybe that could be it. CPI on Tuesday coming through earnings. I almost feel like the end of earnings. season of the real heaviest weeks of earning season might also be a little bit of a moment

to have a little more clarity on where we sit. It's not really a catalyst, but it's a time to assess because you have really seen this negative general response to the numbers, almost no matter what's going on. So I almost feel like that's a piece of pressure that would get lifted. I do think it's interesting. We have the interplay of everybody knows it's a weak seasonal period. we should expect some volatility. Retail investors survey today have more bears than balls, but the pros feel like they want to chase it a little bit as it gets through the effort to the rain. So interesting kind of noisy tape. All right. Yeah, NASDAQ's going to be green as the bell's about to ring because the clapping is already to go. Elsewhere, the day is red. But we do

have those important earnings in O.C. Stay tuned for that with Morgan Dunn. Thank you.