Closing Bell - Closing Bell: What Will Drive Markets Higher? 9/12/25

Episode Date: September 12, 2025

Goldman Sachs Tony Pasquariello reveals what he is telling his biggest clients right now. Plus, we discuss what could be next for both Apple and Netflix – as both companies face some serious challenges. Big Technology’s Alex Kantrowitz tells us what he is expecting. And, top technician Jeff Degraaf is tracking the break out in Tesla. He tells us where he sees that stock headed from here. 

Brian, thanks. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with a major week ahead for these markets. The Fed meeting with a rate cut firmly expected. The only question now, how big will it be? We'll ask our experts over the final stretch where to position no matter what. In the meantime, there's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation today. Stocks have been mixed for most of the day with sector action pretty evenly split as well. So the Dow's got a little work to do NASDAQ and the S&P. are modestly positive. How about Warner Brothers? Warner Brothers Discovery is higher again on word Paramount is said to be prepping a bid. Netflix shares, they're lower for a second day on that news on the potential competitive threat we will discuss ahead. Tesla having a great week, up 12%.

Jeff DeGraph, making a chart call today on that name. You'll hear from him later on too. It takes us to our talk of the tape. What will drive markets in the months ahead? Goldman's Tony Pascarello telling you, what he tells his biggest clients. There he is. He's the head of hedge fund coverage at the firm he's here with us live. That's a big billing, man. There we go. So here we go. We have a big week next week. What do you think about these markets ahead of it? And what are they going to do

after it? So let's just level set the trend. Okay. It's bull market. The primary trend is higher. We want to keep our eye on the ball that is US mega cap tech. I think as we sit here today, the market's had a few things on its side. Earnings for sure have been better than expected. So very simply, the S&P 493 in the first half plus 7% good, the Magnificent 7 plus 28% superb, and then financial conditions have been getting easier and easier as we speak.

I think the market today is basically saying we think the Fed's going to be cutting into a cyclical acceleration. So the big dynamics in the game are favorable. Now, the market's been on a flagpole for the past five months. This is one of the best risk-adjusted returns in our careers. So tactical risk reward, maybe not as good as it was at the start of the summer,

but the balance of risks positive. One of the most important things I think you said is that the Fed is set to cut into a cyclical upswing. The premise being they're not cutting because they have to. They're cutting because they can. And that's one of the reasons why stocks are going to do well on the other side. So our view is they're going to go three times this year. September, October, December. So sequential. Two more times next year on a quarterly pace.

Makes five. So when we're sitting here next June, the funds rate is not four in three-eighths. It's three and an eighth. Growth this year, US GDP growth plus 1.3% sub-trend. Next year, plus 1-8, call it trend. The year after, 2.1. So that would be the interplay that I think the market has been driving higher on. So we're just in a blip of a bit of a slowdown because of the uncertainty from some of the policy. We're looking at the labor market, obviously, but this two shall pass. It sounds like your message is. The recipe, if our economists are correct, to get back to train growth would be the Fed's going to ease, so you have monetary tailwind. Don't fight the Fed. Do not fight the Fed, particularly in the absence of recession. The history

book is very clear on that. The history book is also very favorable when the Fed cuts at or near the highs in the stock market. I think that's only happened nine times since 1990, one year four. your higher in all 12 occurrences. So a fiscal tailwind, a monetary tailwind, distance from peak tariff uncertainty, that would be the recipe to get the U.S. economy going again. All right. So if they're cutting, though, into an up trend and the market is likely to go up from there, if we're already questioning valuation here, what are we going to say there? Are we going to finally say, you know what, this market's going to have a little bit of a blowoff top kind of a period? So here's one way to think about.

the market is the PE is high by any circle standard so at 22x you're living in the 96 percentile again of kind of modern history say go back to 1980 the market is concentrated and top-heavy like we know that that's all math what I'd say though is the following and you and I talked about this for a second before the show if you look at NDX in the post-leiman brothers era you have this crazy stat which you're going to tell our viewers right now here we go since the start of 2009 NASDAQ is up 16 of 17 years that's total returns, assuming this year will be an up year. 16 of 17.

Cumulative return is above 2,200%. And then you ask, well, how much of that was the multiple versus other factors? 75% of it was earnings. 16% of it was dividends. 9% was the multiple. And so if you're going to get skeptical on the market here, you have to be willing to basically say, I'm going to shoot against all of that compounded earnings growth

and earnings momentum going forward. And you are a true believer in the power of those earnings from those companies, even if some of the earnings growth and the revenue growth starts to slow a little bit, which it clearly has, right? I try to keep it simple, which is in a given moment, there's going to be something that comes off the pace. Invita had four down weeks in a row before this week. Google broke out last week to all-time highs. Broadcom broke out to all-time highs. This week, of course, the Oracle story. And so this has been a story, a couple things to say about tech this week. One was Oracle, which

For a company of that size, of that maturity, they went to poke in 1986. To tack on 250 billion of market cap in a day is a statement. I think that is a statement that the AI infrastructure story is still alive and well. We had our marquee tech conference, our communicopia conference. Yes, you did. What stood out to me was you had some of the largest companies in the world get on stage and attach revenue to AI. That's what the market's looking for.

Google, Broadcom, of course, meta, got up and could make that attachment point. I think that's what would continue to power the market. So when Oracle gives the kind of guide that they did, which was, you know, astounding, leaving, like, analysts' mouths agape when they hear those numbers, that doesn't give you any level of pause to say, well, it all better materialize for what was a, you know, a $100 billion gain for Larry Ellison's net worth might not be as much down the road. How do you address that? For sure, it's in the doing because now these bars are said high. So I acknowledge that. Scott, I'm definitely not smart enough to know where the AI story ends as it relates to returns and efficacy, utility, all of that. I don't know.

What I would say is I hope I'm smart enough not to step in the way the revenue freight train right now. And I think every large company, as it relates to AI, but all things tech spend are continuing to stay on the gas. So you feel as though, because as you articulate your views as positive as you are, are we early innings still in this whole AI run and how it's going to impact the economy and the market? Again, I don't know is the honest answer. On any given Sunday, someone will say to me, hey, Tony, this is second inning, and someone else will say this is the biggest misallocation of capital since Global Crossing. Well, you don't think this is the eighth inning.

I mean, obviously. I do not. My guess is this is the middle innings? It's not just an AI story, of course. Again, it's the broad, cyclical impulse to spend, including the cloud, including now there's a hardware dimension to all this. So my guess is this is more middle innings acknowledging we are up 16 of the past 17 years in NASDAQ. Are we right to start thinking that we're very, very early in what could be a long game now for the other parts of the market? The Fed's going to be in this cutting cycle and you're going to have all this liquidity added in the money flow.

added to the equation. Can I finally bet on these other areas? So I think the question is, is what does small cap do in the near term? Because you would say, hey, superficially, the Fed's cutting rates into a cyclical upswing that should be good for small cap and some of the disadvantaged parts of the market. I'm like a little bit open-minded to that. And I do think there's a positioning element, which is small cap is the thing that everyone in the trading community has been short at some point, whether it was short against another index or a theme or a basket of stock. So just a month ago, hedge funds held a record short position in Russell futures. So I could see a little

bit of that squeeze. Maybe we've had some hints of that this week. I would say bigger picture, here's how I think about it. So last September, the Fed went 50 basis points, which came as a little bit of a surprise because it was basically a coin flip going in at 37.5 basis points. Russell had a moment, but by the end of the year, if you looked, from the September of FMC to the end of the year, Russell was up 1%, and NASDAQ was up 9%. So I think I know medium turn, the horse that I want to ride is still NASDAQ over Russell. Yields had a moment, too. Remember a year ago?

I was sitting with Jeffrey Gunlock out at Double Lines headquarters in Los Angeles, where we're going to be again next week, by the way. And the Fed makes this cut, and we're both kind of looking at yields, and they went up. Where do bond yields go from here, do you think? So my guess is, my personal view has been biased towards steeper curve. in the U.S. and globally. That's mostly worked, particularly in a mosaic of long stocks, short dollars, long stores of value, which we should talk about, including gold and silver and Bitcoin. I still have that bias, and in my mind, the front end can be anchored by the fact that

the asymmetry is towards lower rates. We're at four and three-eighths. I think most people would acknowledge 3% is neutral. That's where we think they're going. That's where the market thinks they're going. The back end wears the all the doubts around debt sustainability, deficit spending, again, a global dynamic. So I'm still biased towards deeper curves.

What about gold? I mean, you have an opinion of it? Because it keeps setting these record highs. Predictions keep going up. There was another one today for like $3,800. I've talked to people who think $4,000 is the next stopping point until the train gets to the next station. I've been a fan of gold. Again, in the store of value context, as a firm, we've been a fan of gold.

We also think by mid-next year gold at $4,000. in. It has these, again, demonstrated store value properties as the market's asking hard questions about fiat currencies. I think post-2020, Russia, Ukraine, that has driven a very significant increase in central bank demand for gold. I think when global fixed income, particularly U.S. Treasuries, had that risk off period in April around Liberation Day. I think people said, wait a second. The insurance properties of fixed income have changed. I think it's just another inroad for gold. It's rare that we get to speak to you live and in person. Your notes do a lot of the talking on our programs, but thanks for being here. Thanks for having me. It's always good to see you.

Tony Pascarillo of Goldman Sachs. We do have a news alert on the search for the next Fed Chair. Black Rock's Rick Reeder held an hours-long meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in New York today. The two discussing a wide range of topics, including monetary policy. of course, and the structure of the Fed. I spoke with Mr. Reeder just earlier this week out in California at the Future Proof Conference. I asked him about his candidacy and what he thinks the next Fed chair needs to do.

Here's what he told me. You think about what a Fed could do, so whoever ends up being the Fed share, there's so many innovative things. How do you use the balance sheet? How do you use liquidity? We are on the yield curve, is it? By the way, the Fed's reducing mortgage at the same time we have

mortgage rates too high that's hurting a huge number people in that country. We are seeing something in the country today that we haven't seen with this intensity in an extended period of time. Low incomes having a really hard time. So that's Rick Reeder. Let's bring in now our own Steve Leesman. Steve, it's good to have you on the phone. So apparently Mr. Reeder is moving up the list. And Mr. Besant, the Treasury Secretary, has now interviewed, according to this one report that I see, four of the 11 candidates. and Reader told me directly that the Fed should cut 50 basis points next week. Interesting.

I think what was interesting was your comment to Tony, Scott, where you said his notes are part of the program. Well, obviously Rick Reader's notes are part of our thinking throughout the day at CNBC when it comes to fixed income. I don't know. Maybe Gunlack is in the first position. Maybe Rick is in the second. I don't know what you think, Scott, in terms of shaping views of the fixed income market. You know, we all know Rick well. We all know him as a humble guy, a smart guy, who knows markets, and I find it fascinating that he's moving up the list because he's the kind of guy I would suggest who would make markets very comfortable at the helm of the Fed, along with perhaps a Chris Waller, but these are people who the market is comfortable with, and I would think Rick would be among them.

Yeah, maybe they're coastal kings. We have an east coast and a west coast, kings of the bond market. Good way to think about it. Mr. Reeder and Gunlock. And you know, Steve, Rick Reader sat here on this program, I guess it was a couple of weeks ago, and he called this one of the best investing environments that he's ever seen.

And he made his case, and I said to him at that moment, if they're watching at the White House, they're probably standing up and saying, and throwing their arms in the air and saying, yes, this is the case that we're trying to make. The Fed should cut. We're going to have a nice economic move.

The markets are going to go up. And lo and behold, he ended up on the list the very next day. Coincidence or not, who knows. But it's key what you said, though. He matches with what the administration wants investors to think about where their agenda can take this economy with lower rates and belief in what they're doing. Yeah, Scott, let me expand on that a little bit because that's a super important point. What the administration has been advocating in terms of that policy is that the Federal Reserve embrace the supply-side expansion that they believe is coming as a result of their policies.

What that means is they believe the economy can grow faster and not create or endanger inflation. And so what they think is going to happen is there will be an expansion of the supply side, and you can have higher levels of growth without concern of inflation. Maybe a way to summarize that is the let it run idea about monetary policy. The Fed is always wary of growth that's running above what they consider to be potential unemployment falling below what they believe to be a rate that is a sustainable or non-inflationary level of unemployment. I don't see Rick as particularly ideological in this regard, but I'm guessing that he basically

believes in this notion that if you expand the supply side, you can run the economy hotter without the Fed cutting it off. Do you have any idea before I let you go based on your own conversations and reporting about when we actually might get a name from whether it's Secretary Bessent or the president himself, again, because Chair Powell's term doesn't end into 26, but they've already intimated that they may appoint somebody at least by name early to the process you know scott i want to spend a minute and uh uh sort of applaud the treasury in the process that they're running apparently they're telling us who they interviewed they're telling us who's on the list

they're telling us about the process what they're not telling us about and i kind of understand this is what their timeline is um if if we were going according to how it had been done before it would be sort of january where we might get a nomination uh... if it came out now it would be pretty early and that would be a little bit strange and a little bit perhaps uncomfortable for the existing fed share that there was another person in place so i don't know uh... if they're if not necessarily if it's being very thorough about this scott

and they're trying to take their time and get the right person what treasury officials tell me is they're trying to add a couple of names to the people the president has mentioned, he's mentioned Waller, he's mentioned the two Kevin's, Warsh and Hacett. We understand, as we exclusively reported the other day, that he has talked to Warsh, and he's talked to Larry Lindsay, and we're waiting for the Fed blackout period to end before he starts to interview Fed officials. So I would keep your seatbelt on, keep your glasses on, and pay attention, because I think

this process has some time to play out here, Scott. And I wouldn't be in such a hurry to think it's going to be in such a hurry to think it's happen all that soon well you never know um it's i know what you're saying but the the president has already shown uh he's he doesn't shy away from a little fed chair discomfort if you will so we'll see no steve thanks definitely not i appreciate you coming on the phone and talking about this story steve leesman our senior economics reporter jem and i making its wall street debut today as we move to talk about ipos it's been a big week especially for retail investors leslie picker is here with more on that. Hi, Les.

Hey, Scott, yeah, big week for retail investors. Gemini set aside up to 30% of today's IPO for individual mom and pop investors. That's a really unthinkable retail allocation just five years ago. It's also triple the proportion Gemini had initially planned on selling to this cohort. Historically, bankers have opted to sell most or essentially all new issuance to institutional investors. The practical reason is it allows them to do price discovery from fewer number of voices, voices that historically have been less inclined to flip the shares when they begin trading. In recent years, however, though, technology, whether it be through Robin Hood or Weble or elsewhere, has democratized the process of it, allowing more shares to go to retail.

But the question is, does that limit retail from serving as aftermarket buyers on an IPO's debut? Well, Citadel Securities did a bit of research on this and found that circle, figure, bullish core weave all saw significant and continued retail investor demand from each respective issuers trading debut. Citadel said within these four IPOs retail accounted for more than 20% of overall trading volume. In other retail investing news, there's Open Door, which is plummeting today. You can see down 12% after surging 80% yesterday on a big C-suite change. Keith Roboy, a co-founder who was brought back onto the board, told CNBC earlier to today that Open Door is not a meme stock. Scott.

Leslie, thanks. I don't know if the CEO gets to declare whether a stock is a meme stock or not, but it's been trading as one. It doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the fundamentals, but when stocks trade like that, people, that's the first thing they go to. So we'll keep watching it because it's been certainly a looker. Les thanks, Leslie Picker. We'll talk to you soon. Let's bring in now CNBC contributor, Stephanie Link of High Tower and BMO Capitals, Brian Balski. Good to have you both with us, Steph. I'll go to you first, just to play off the banks, which have been one of the better sectors year to date. Capital markets, we're talking about, you know, potential Paramount Warner Brothers Discovery, so we have M&A.

Things are lining up pretty nicely here. For sure, and we have barely gotten through the deregulation positives and tailwinds as well. So I listened to every single bank company at Barclays conference this week. The most impressive thing, Scott, was about all of the commentary about the consumer. The consumer is spending four and a half percent this year versus three, three and a half percent last year. Credit, which is really important, is actually really good. Alli Financial actually called that out, which I thought was very interesting. So you don't care that Jamie Diamond told Leslie Picker, who was just on the consumer slowing?

No, because everybody else said that the consumer is saying no weakness whatsoever because home prices are higher. Wealth is higher because of the stock market and also balances are higher. So to me, you add that all up, and that's really good for the consumer. We have been talking about it. They all talked about the manufacturing renaissance, the whole data center thing that you and I've been talking about for three years. It is a live and well and in early innings. So to me, the economy, this is where I disagree with Tony.

The economy is stronger than 1.8% in my mind for this year. I think you're going to see two, two and a half percent. And yes, I do think you're going to see an acceleration next year. And then the year thereafter, because you do have a lot of tailwinds, especially when you get fiscal and monetary policies next year. But the more important point, you can quibble over, you know, percentage, you know, tens of percents here, there, and everywhere else. But the more important point, I thought, was that the Fed is cutting in his mind into what's

going to be an up cycle. But that's my point. A cyclical upswing. That's my point. Well, that's his point. But I think we're actually, we're in a stronger position than what a lot of people are thinking. No one believes that we're growing two or two and a half percent. But what I just told you about the consumer in manufacturing is such a tailwind.

for the economy and it's such a tailwind for earnings. Earnings haven't grown sustainably double digits for two or three years in a row in the last ten years, believe it or not. So it's been growing at about five percent. So can you imagine the earnings revisions that we're going to see as the economy continues to do better? And the earnings revisions higher

should lead to a higher overall market. Okay, do you agree with that, Brian Belski? Hey Scott, we're probably somewhere in between Tony And Stephanie, quite frankly, I think it is going to be a very strong cyclical recovery. We do think, especially in areas that respond very well, traditionally to interest rate cuts, especially consumer discretionary tech, financials, communication services, and yes, small caps. So I think we're going to have a little bit more of a broadening out. But I think the key part of this is just really increased scrutiny on stock picking.

You know, Stephanie and I've been talking years and years about consumer discretionary stocks, And I think there's going to be a different mix of consumer discretionary stocks, from the, I'm sorry, from the T.J. Maxes of the world to kind of more cyclical areas, the home builders, the autos, things that we can really see more, quote-unquote, juice in the earnings. So earnings revisions, she's absolutely right, are going to be rocketing. And I do believe that the Fed, we're on board. The Fed's going to cut by 25 and two more times this year. And then we'll see what happens into next year.

But I think the sky's the limit on the stock market. I think our numbers are too low. and we'll be coming out with a new forecast for 2026 quite soon. I don't see how you, that matches with how you started the answer, that you're somewhere in the middle. You sound like you're at the top, like nowhere near the middle. What are you talking about? You just made a whole case as to why the stock market's going to go a lot higher from here.

What did I miss? Well, listen, I think that at somewhere between 1.8 and 2.3% GDP, If we get a two-handle in GDP and we get earnings, I think the big thing with the most, I think one of the most insightful things that Tony talked about, not only the cyclical recovery, Scott, but where the majority of upsides come from earnings, I think we're going to see even more upside from earnings, especially in my favorite sector, financials, financials, financials, as you know. But technology is going to see different as well, but we're going to see better growth in areas. So I think it's probably somewhere in between, so you think about a 2% handle on GDP, a 3.5% handle,

on stocks, man, we're talking 95-96-type market, and I think it could be a lot better than most people think. So then, Brian, we're going to stop obsessing over the multiple then, right, valuations, because if earnings are going to be as good as you say, then they will theoretically justify the multiple that the market's trading at. Yeah, I think what you're going to see is, you know, an earnings go up, the P.E. goes down, and I think earnings actually could go up faster than the market goes up. It's just a math situation. And I think, I think, you're going to I actually think that we're going to see that type of market, which is akin to actually what we saw in the beginning stages of the cyclical recovery in the first and second quarter of 1995, which accelerated into 96, and then, of course, we ended the high multiple era of the late 90s. Steph, outside of the mega caps, you believe in all the other parts of the market, or as some of the notes suggested this week, it's kind of hard to poke holes in the AI business.

part of the story. So why are you going to make it harder on yourself to try and pick other areas that may not perform as well, even in a rate-cutting environment? I think they can all do well. That's why we're seeing the broadening out in the market to begin with. I don't want to be short Mag 7. You know I'm involved in a couple of them. You know I'm involved very overweight on the industrial data center build-out, so I am absolutely exposed there. But you know I have been bullish on housing. I just bought an auto parts play this week as well because I think auto is set to see an increase as well as rates come lower. I love the consumer because of what I just said, by the way, American Express said T&E accelerated in July and August from June.

June slowed down, freaked out everybody. So I like the consumer as well. So there's lots to do here, most overweight industrials and then financials, because I think that there's the most upside and the most margin expansion story as well. All right, we did a lot. I'm going to say block. Steph, thanks. Good weekend to you. Brian, you as well. We'll see you soon. Brian Belski. We're just getting started here. Coming up next is a real competitive threat emerging for Netflix,

the deal chatter that has that stock under pressure yet again today. Big Technologies, Alex Cantorwich, standing by. We'll get his take. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closingville on CNBC. We're getting a news alert on Apple. Steve Kovac has that for us, Steve. Hey, Scott. Well, I couldn't let a full week go by without telling you about another AI departure at Apple. This time, it's Robbie Walker. He is one of the top Siri executives, Bloomberg reporting. He is going to leave the company next month. This is just the next in line of a slew of AI executives, either in the large language models team or in the robotics team and so forth,

leaving Apple for companies like Meta, Open AI, and so many other places. What we're not hearing, though, is talent coming into Apple. despite what Tim Cook told us a few weeks ago that they are going to increase their spending on both infrastructure and talent for artificial intelligence. So we're still waiting to see how that plays out. But for now, another AI exec out the door at Apple Scott. I mean, bigger picture, what does this mean to you? Bigger picture, this tells me these reports we've been hearing about them partnering instead of building seem to be the direction they're going. I would expect we'll see a lot more of these departures as the stuff.

they were building just didn't come to fruition, building their own Apple large language models and so forth. Apple intelligence did not impress us on that front. And they're going to, most likely, just take outside technology, build on Syria on top of that and then launch it next spring. Scott. All right, Steve, thank you. That's one half of the combination we used to talk about all things Apple. That's Kovac. Now let's bring in Kanchowitz. He's the big technology founder, CNBC contributor, Alex Kanchowitz, of course. Good to see you. Well, we didn't have you on book to talk about this, but what do you think about it now? Well, it's amazing how many people have left to Apple, especially on the artificial intelligence side. Like Steve mentioned, you've had

10 people leave that have been connected to either foundational model or robotics, now the former head of Siri, which isn't a huge surprise given the direction that Siri has gone. But you have to ask yourself, do you want to be a company where people who build artificial intelligence products don't feel like they have a home in, even if they're moving to the partnering model, you still want to have a place for people who want to build AI products because they're just going to be integral in all tech products moving forward. So I would just say this adds to the concern about the direction that Apple is going on that front. But I mean, as the way that Steve Kovac sort of ended his commentary there,

build it or buy it or partner with it seems to be trending towards the latter. Right. I'm not sure it's either or. I mean, of course, they're going to partner on Siri in some areas. But you're going to want to have AI talent to be able to integrate some of the stuff you're taking off the shelf into your products. And overall, I think that Apple, if this is Apple giving up entirely on building AI products internally, I think that's a big mistake because it is going to be something that's going to be built into the operating system. You do need people in house. So to just put your hands up and say we're done with artificial intelligence, to me, seem strategically short-sighted.

All right, so the iPhone went on sale today, right, the new one. We know about a delay in China because of a digital SIM card issue. So we have that news as well. There is a bit of a regulatory overhang, right? And Jim Kramer had an exclusive interview with Tim Cook today in which he asked him about that over in Europe. I want you to watch this exchange, and we can comment on the other side. Unfortunately, the Digital Markets Act is very difficult to navigate.

And so there are several innovations that we will bring to the EU, I hope over time, but need to be delivered in a different manner than they're delivered in other parts of the world. This is an unfortunate side effect of a very rigid regulation. Now you could see at the end there, Tim Cook chose his words carefully, right? Thought about it for a second, but seem to take a shot at regulations over in the EU. What do you think? Well, this is something that all big tech CEOs are feeling you'll have companies like meta, for instance, that just won't ship products in Europe or won't ship their latest

features in Europe because of the regulatory overhang. I love the way Tim Cook talks in these interviews about it. He's about as diplomatic as you could possibly be while clearly being internally upset about the regulations there. But I think over time what Europe is going to see with the regulations that they have is that they are going to hold back their markets from being able to access the latest technology. You can see it when you're over there. The products just don't work as well as they do elsewhere. And I think that's going to be a problem in Europe for the consumer, but also for builders in Europe who are going to want to be able to deploy the latest technology

and haven't been able to. You know, Tim Cook is going to be on tonight, Mad Money. You'll see more of that interview, AK. So check that out. That's with Jim Kramer, of course, 6 o'clock Eastern Time. It's an exclusive, so you don't want to miss that. And I don't want to miss asking you about this talk of a potential Paramount Warner Brothers Discovery tie up

if for no other reason that Netflix shares have been down the last couple of days. And people are writing about the possibility that, okay, now you may have, may have a real competitor in streaming. What do you think about that? Well, I think before we go crazy over it, we should just establish that these type of mergers and tie-ups are often very messy, especially in media. Just because you have a certain number of products in one area and a certain number of others in a different company, it doesn't mean if the two come together, it will neatly tie together. There, of course, will be people defending their fiefdom. and potential job losses maybe in the thousands.

So it's not going to be like this deal happens. And then on day one, you have a profitable, bigger streaming service. That being said, if you're Netflix, you really don't want consolidation. You want to have as many disparate, little streaming services as possible. So when somebody's making a decision of what to buy, it's not an obvious. I'm going to buy Netflix and this Paramount WBD tie up. It will be like, I will buy Netflix and maybe one of them. them. Once you start having this consolidation happen, and it seems like it's inevitable,

you are going to have people making decisions. Do I want Netflix or the other one? And that might be trouble for Netflix's long-term ability to grow. I just don't see this happening right away. I wouldn't be panicking if I was in Netflix headquarters today. We'll see how it all transpires. A.K., thanks. We'll see you soon. Alex Cantorwitz. Up next, the top market technician Jeff DeGraph. He's tracking the breakout in Tesla today. charts are telling them where the stock might be going next. He'll tell you next. Coming up next, we tracked the biggest movers into this close today.

Contested Brewer standing by with that. What are you watching? Well, how about talking to football here, Scott? Sunday night's game, Bill's versus Ravens, 81 points scored in the game. Everybody and his brother were making touchdowns. You know what I'm talking about. An astonishing fourth quarter comeback by Buffalo. No, I'm not confused about where I work.

I know this is business news. Who loves the bills? New Yorkers. We're going to talk about what it does for the sports books when the customer is always right. That's ahead on closing bell. We're a little more than 15 from the closing bell. Back to Contessa Brewer now for a look at the key stocks to watch. Hi, Contessa.

Hi, there. Scott. Yeah, Draft Kings and Fandle, Parent Flutter under pressure today, down more than 3%. As you can see, approaching 4% loss. The analysts I talked to are blaming weekly gambling numbers out of New York State that showed a massive decline. Gross gaming revenue dropped almost 60% from the previous week. downright brutal for draft kings with weekly hold of 1% where normally it averages about 10%. One week does not a season make, but when everybody's piling into the Buffalo Bills in New York State, it really shows up. The chip space is riding on a high super micro up 3% today after began shipments of NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultrasystems.

The company's CEO calls it the highest performance AI platform. Micron continues to move higher, shares up 4% following yesterday's 7% climb. City reiterated its rating, upped its price target to 175. The chipmaker now on track for its best week, Scott, since 2020. It's up 20%. That's a lot of 20s. Well, yes, it is.

Contested, thanks, contested Brewer. Still ahead. We'll tell you what's weighing on shares of RH today. The bell. We'll be right back after this. Welcome back. Tesla shares surging this week and could be starting a run towards new highs. That is what the charts are telling our next guest, Jeff DeGraph.

He's the head of macro and technical research at Renaissance. He joins us now. Nice to see you. Good to see you, Scott. This looks like a pretty good breakout. What do the charts tell you to where it can go? It looks like a great breakout to me. It's got a lot of momentum.

It actually broke out yesterday and following through today with a gap higher. And it really has been consolidating for about four months. You had the big momentum surge off the lows in April with a lot of names, obviously. And it's been kind of dead money here for several months. and now really starting to add to that. So I think pretty easily this thing can trade back to the old highs. That's a pretty good move from here. And, you know, I own it personally, so for full disclosure.

But I think there's a lot more to go here. So it's a bullish setup and certainly not extended, which is a case you can make for some other names like Google and other kind of Meg 7 names. So this looks pretty interesting to me right here. It was like $90 higher from here. I mean, that's a considerable move. I mean, there needs to be a lot of momentum against a backdrop, frankly, fundamentally, that at least as it relates to the vehicle sales is not good.

Yeah, there's something else going on there. So I don't think it's one-for-one vehicle sales in the market's finding something else to obviously add to. We're not in the narrative business. We're in the, you know, let's listen to the market business. And clearly the market is impressive in terms of the price performance. And, you know, it's not as we're not in a state. right here in the market where breakouts are dangerous. You do have points where breakouts can be dangerous, and that's usually when momentum is dominating. And our work just doesn't show that momentum

is dominating here yet. We're about the 44th percentile in our work. So, you know, anything above 90 starts to get a little uncomfortable, and we don't start chasing breakouts there. But this is, you know, we're a long way from that. So I think this still has some good upside to it. A chart that should be talked about more. And we've tried to talk about it on this show and on halftime, Alibaba, they've had this almost stealthy move with some of these China internet names because of the chip news that continues to come out. The idea that there's going to be competition in China, whether, you know, Nvidia thinks it's going to sell more than the H20 there, I don't know. But Alibaba had new news this week, and you like this chart too? You know, I told your producer, this might be one of my favorite quote-unquote live charts I've ever seen what I mean by that.

It's something that I don't have to, in other words, I don't have the benefit of hindsight, right? Today, right now, what it looks like, it's this big base formation that spans, I don't know, three or four years, is just breaking out. And I think it'll be very easy to look back at this thing in three years and say, you know, woulda, coulda, shoulda. And again, here's a name that I think can double. It's not going to double between here and the end of the year by any means, but I think it can double by the time we're speaking, you know, next year at this time. call it the end of 2026, I think, is not out of the question at all. So there's a big base here. For those who like value, there's actually value in this name.

The entire market in China has turned and really is one of our top picks, you know, from a global allocation perspective. And this is just a name that, you know, feels like a layup. So I like the chart. I like what it's saying. I like what the market's doing. I think there's a lot of opportunity there. All right.

We'll leave it there. Good to see you. We'll see you. Good to see you. Jeff DeGrabb, thank you. Coming up next, a double dose of pharma stocks under pressure today. We'll tell you why Pfizer and Moderna are sinking in today's session. There they are.

Considerable losses. We'll do it next. We're now in the closing bell market zone. CNBC, senior markets commentator Mike Santoli, here to break down these crucial moments. of the trading day. Plus, Courtney Reagan here with what's weighing on RH today. Angelica Peebles is standing by with some big moves in the pharma space. But we are going to start with court. What's going on today with RH? Yes, Scott. I mean, RH shares under pressure after both the disappointing quarter and this lowered outlook. I mean, not to mention that it could actually

get worse, depending on the Trump administration's investigation into furniture with regards to maybe further tariffs there. So the premium furniture retailer says unmitigated tariffs will hit the year by an additional $30 million. And its fall source book and launch of its new brand extension are now both delayed, which could push sales into next year, part of why the company is lowering its sales guidance. Now, RH says it needs time to adjust pricing after the influence of tariffs to sort of reset potentially that source book pricing. And while it plans to have only 2% of its production in China by year end, that's down from 16% at the start of the year, it'll still have 7% of its business tied to India, mostly hand-knotted rugs, which now subject

to 50% tariffs. RH also down more than 44% year to date. This has been a tough one, despite the CEO saying they are faring remarkably well for the worst housing market in 50 years, Scott. All right, Court, thank you. Ms. Courtney Reagan. How about Angelica on these two stocks that are falling, Moderna and Pfizer? Hey, Scott, well, health officials are reportedly planning to link COVID vaccines to the death of about two dozen children in a presentation next week at the CDC's Vaccine Advisory Committee meeting. And so an HHS spokesperson is saying that FDA and CDC staff routinely analyzed data from a federal vaccine safety database and those reviews are being shared publicly. But until that happens, any of this should be considered pure speculation. But FDA Commissioner Marty McCarrie last week in an interview with CNN did say that the FDA is looking into that database and doing an intense investigation.

Now, anyone can report adverse events in that database, so it's typically used as a signal versus a definitive source of potential vaccine injuries. Now, Moderna in a statement saying that the safety of its COVID vaccine is rigorously monitored by the company and regulators around the world and that no new or undisclosed safety concerns in children or pregnant women have been identified. So Shirley wanted to watch next week, Scott. Okay, Angelica, thanks very much for that reporting, Angelica Peebles. All right, Mike Santoli, let's get your last word here. Looking ahead to next week after what you saw in the markets and what you take away from it. Well, we've built in a pretty favorable scenario along multiple fronts, I think, Scott, getting to these record levels. You've got stocks up, bonds up, and gold up, and equity bulls are telling themselves that those other things are happening for good reasons.

And the Fed is going to be cutting for benign reasons. Obviously, they want to normalize rates, and the labor market is soft enough. So I think that it's still plausible that things continue to break in the favor of this market. I just do think that we've now got enough air under the indexes that it wouldn't be too surprising to have them hesitate, have a little bit of room for disappointment, if we get anything aside from, you know, clear path to multiple cuts ahead. And also, I do think the economy is going to have to prove that it's stable. We do have Atlanta-Fed GDP, still running 3% for this quarter.

that's great. The question is whether the labor market numbers are the anomaly or the leading indicator. Yeah, Fed meeting next week. I mean, it's going to be everything, right? What Chair Powell says, and investors are going to hang on every word. What he says, how he characterizes the decision, and how close to call it was, whatever it does happen. Obviously, you got the committee outlook as well. So this is one of those meetings when you have the summary of economic projections, you have the dot plot. It usually leaves a little bit more room for interpretation and maybe some confusion. I guess we've got to be compared to that. But we're doing so, again, from a position of strength, a very strong trend in the equity market, even if it does pull back

a little. Good stuff, Mike. We're speaking to you. Everybody as well. Have a great one. We'll see on the other side. Maddak gets another closing high. Dallas, and two you're going to close a little bit red. I'll see on the other side.