Closing Bell - Closing Bell: What’s Next for the Rally? 4/17/26

Episode Date: April 17, 2026

So, what is next for this record setting rally? We discuss with Partners Group’s Anastasia Amoroso. Plus, airline analysts are cutting their forecasts ahead of a busy week of earnings for the sector. We discuss with top analyst Savanthi Syth from Raymond James. And, Capital Wealth Planning’s Kevin Simpson breaks down his latest trades. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Thank you, Brian, and welcome to closing bell. I am Frank Holland in for the judge, Scott Wapner. We are live from post nine at the New York Stock Exchange, this make or break hour. It begins with a roaring stock market. Take a look green across the board, the Dowop, about 870 points off of its highs, but still off about one and three quarters of one percent. The S&P up over 1 percent. The NASDAQ up one and the third. The Russell up 2 percent. We also have Iran's foreign minister declaring the straight of her moves, quote, completely open. Sending the major soaring. Let's get straight to the scorecard with 60 minutes. to go on regulation. I just hit the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ. As we mentioned, everything's higher. Oil plunging. Following that announcement and supply disruption fears, they ease. Other sectors

also surging on the news. We're looking at cruise lines. Take a look at the action there. You see rural Caribbean up almost 8 percent. Norwegian up about six. Airlines also rebounding. United up almost 7 percent. Tech also roaring back. Oracle AMD of Microsoft all up double digits for the week. And we are also watching Washington. Anthropics CEO is for preparing to have a meeting at the White House to discuss the company's new Mythos model. We'll have a live report on that coming up in just a bit. It all takes us to our talk of the tape. And what's next for this record-setting rally?

Let's bring in Partners Group, Anastasia Aniroso, who joins me right here at Post 9. What a day to have you here, Anastasia? Good to see, Frank. Okay. We're on pace for new record highs, okay? Is this a rally that you would quote-unquote chase? We have Jonathan Krenski from B-T-I-G, excuse me, coming up just a bit later in the show. He says, don't chase this.

Would you chase it? I mean, look, right here right now, probably not. We've had a monster week. We had a monster couple of weeks, and the snapback has been so large in magnitude and so quick. So maybe not right here right now. But I will say the rally has occurred, Frank, for good reasons. And the good reasons are that oil is not at $100 or $120 anymore. It is declining probably not to 60 where it was before the war, but 70 or 80.

And that is more than digestible by the global economy. So not right here, but I will say that there's a lot supporting the economy of the, otherwise on the consumer front, on the corporate front, on the AI front. So from a longer-term perspective, let's say we ease off a little bit of the current levels. I will say the narrative is back to where it was before the war started, back to February, and it was quite constructive. So give it a little bit of a pause, but yes, probably still continue with it. I have questions.

I'm sure. Let's do it. We're on pace for a couple days of record highs, we're new record huts. But you're saying we're actually back to square one. We're back to basically where we were before the Iran conflict started. Now, I do have to ask, energy was a big part of the rally before the conflict started. We've seen a lot of fluctuations in energy. Now, is that sector just as attractive as it was before all this?

Look, I think all of the developments this year have forced energy into the spotlight, meaning it is a critical enabler, whether you're doing data centers, whether you're doing energy transition, you need natural gas. So I do think between the developments of Venezuela and also now Iran, it is a sector that needs to be paid close attention to. Now, the parts that we like within the market is the natural gas infrastructure and maybe not the commodity sensitive infrastructure, not the price of natural gas or oil itself, but actually transportation of it. So I think that is here to stay that is front and center. So I would not give up on energy just because it seems like we have resolved the Iran conflict.

Okay, what's your take on tech? Nasdaq on pace for a 13th straight day of gains, almost certain at this point. Nothing's ever certain, but it's pretty close to being served right now. That would be the longest streak since all the way back in 1992. At the same time, we're getting the numbers on earnings. It's still the early goings, but earnings up about 14%. What isn't priced in? What isn't priced in? What do you think is going to move the market higher that's going to come up and keep investors in this market continuing to buy?

Because we knew earnings were pretty strong, and obviously we've been following this NASDAQ rally. I think longer term, what's not priced in is that we're still in probably the first wave of what is a three-wave transformation that is AI-driven. The first wave was you kind of transform your business processes. The next one, you transform the performance. And the third wave is really about the business model transformation. Frank, I'm talking about here, you know, multi-year cadence of some of that. And I think, you know, near term, what's not priced in is, you know, sure, we've got the conversational AI momentum, given way to the agentic AI momentum.

I think you also have the physical AI that also has to come into the framework. You also have governments increasingly turning to AI, especially amid the geopolitical conference. So I think that is not yet baked into a lot of those estimates. And, you know, having said that the AI momentum is clearly continuing. If you look at the number of agentic AI tools and plugins and, you know, APIs that are launched so far this year, it is double what it was for the fourth quarter of last year. So I think there's plenty of momentum, and I think we'll hear that out of the hyperscaler earnings. Okay, to your point, if we're back to square one, aren't we also back to those AI disruption fears that rattled the market?

In fact, this week, Claude, Opus. four points out. I got to keep track. It's like 4.6. It keep coming out. It came out. It's better at software engineering. It's better at following instructions. And it's also better, quote, unquote, you're talking about physical AI completing real world work. So does that mean we're going to also see those AI disruption fears that you're going to make the market very volatile? It's a great point. But I think what happened, Frank, over the last couple of months, is that investors had time to digest and what does AI disruption mean to software. And at first blush, it was, let's say, 20% of private credit is in software. It's all going to be disrupted. But actually,

when you think about it, when you study it, you know, there's so many nuances within software. And first of all, the application software is likely to be disrupted a lot more than the infrastructure layer. And second of all, the horizontal software is likely to be disrupted more than the vertical software. And so once you kind of parse through that and you realize that software at risk, again, within private credit, for example, is not actually 20%. Software at risk within private credit is closer to 7%. And the other thing that investors sort of assumed at first blush, you know, back in February, is that all software companies are going to face an earnings cliff and is coming now. But the truth is software companies have significant margins. The margin for

software companies somewhere around 75%. So, Frank, if your company, software companies in Silicon Valley or anywhere around the world, you're not sitting there waiting. What happens when the agents come, you are redeploying that margin, you're adapting, you're investing, you're innovating. So I think investors have developed a much better understanding of that fact. Well, I think we have to wait and see them until next week if they actually have. Anastasia, please stick around. We've got a lot more to talk about. Investors are closely watching several key Fed speeches this afternoon.

CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Leasman. He's here with all the headlines. We've got a lot of conflicting headlines today about the Strait of Four moves. We're getting some conflicting headlines from Waller and Daily as well. Yeah, and I'm sorry not to be able to add to the joy on Wall Street. But Fed Governor Chris Waller suggesting the U.S. economy may not quite be out of the woods yet from the Middle East conflict. in a speech today that, by the way, came after all of this news of Iran talking about the trade of her moves being open.

Waller expressed some optimism of the economy could heal quickly, but worried more about a lingering conflict. He said, quote, oil futures prices and securities markets in general seem to be undervaluing the risk that the conflict continues. The strait remains closed and disruptions to production and shipping keep energy prices high. He said those were real possibilities. He also expressed concern about what are the public's expectations for inflation could rise because the oil price shock is coming on the heels of higher prices for tariffs as well.

He says, while intellectually it makes sense to look through each shocks with a sequence of shocks, policymakers need to be more vigilant. Walthor said the Fed could get back on track to cutting rates and worrying about the job market more if the conflict and its effects dissipate quickly. If it lingers and there's continued concern about inflation expectations, the Fed may have to remain on hold, especially if high oil prices begin to raise and bleed into other non-energy cost, Frank. Our Steve Leesman, live from D.C.

Steve, thank you very much. I want to bring in CNBC contributor, Ryan Dietrich from the Carson Group and Joe Taneyas from Northern Trust, partners group, Anastasia Amoroso, still with us. Gentlemen, thanks for joining the conversation. Thank you. Oh, okay, Anastasia, I think I'm... Oh, I'm going to turn to you. I've got some technical difficulties.

Everything's working on Wall Street. We're having some problems with some of the things that we're having technically. I wanted to talk to you about what Steve Leasman had to say. You heard some... I think most people will... consider hawkish comments from Waller, Daly also out with some hawkish comments as well. What do you make of that? We're about two weeks away for the next Fed meeting. Do these comments matter today? Do they matter until we get more clarity on the straight-up four moves? Because it's almost

certain we're going to see a pause at April 29th meeting. Yeah, we're about to go into the Fed blackout period. And I think what really matters is the last inflation print, you know, presumably that incorporated some of the oil impact, but that oil impact was pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things. And although headline inflation has come up, the core CPI inflation is really, really contained. And so now you fast forward to today, you've got oil prices that are traced significantly. So I do think that despite some of the hawkish comments, the Fed is much more likely to look through this temporary inflation spike and look at other parts of core inflation that are easing. For example, core goods inflation is actually easing because the impact of tariffs

is starting to roll over, housing inflation is easing. Wage inflation is running about three 5, 3.7 percent, and, you know, consumption overall is not that, you know, is not that rampant. So I think with all of that, I actually see more reasons for inflation to skew down than up over the course of the year. Joe, I believe that we have you right now. I want to come over to you right now. I want to get your take on your laugh. And I know even we have technical difficulties, Joe.

Your take on the rally that we're seeing today. I talked to Anastasia earlier about a note from Jonathan Krenski saying don't chase it. How do you view the moves in the market today? Look, I think going back just a few weeks ago, we didn't necessarily sell out of risk assets as a result of the conflict. We effectively looked through it. And so today, we feel like we're actually quite well positioned. What you're looking at today is a very fragile ceasefire. We'll certainly take it.

It bodes well for risk assets. But at the end of the day, the operative word there being, it is still fragile. Of course, we have to think about the impact long term on oil. We also think about LNG and its byproducts and how that's going to disproportionately affect major economies around the world. So from our perspective, it isn't so much getting all in or getting all out, but being perhaps a bit more nuanced with respect to where we have that exposure based on how these things are playing out. All right. Speaking of nuance, you say the U.S. expansion, it's bending, it's not breaking. Exactly what does that mean? Are you talking about the markets? Because I'm

looking at the markets right now. I'm seeing the S&P this month. It's up about 9%. Industrials are lagging. Materials are lagging. Momentum is leading. Tech is leading. So what do you mean by that? What I mean by that is this. When you think about what's happening as a result of higher oil prices, and oil prices going up, of course, given what took place in Iran and the conflict in Iran, that is going to have a negative impact on consumption. That is, to an extent, going to be a tax on the consumer here in the United States. Yet at the end of the day, to your point, you have to recognize there are different parts of the economy that are going to feel the effects of higher energy prices in different ways. While it may be a negative for the lower K, if you will, of the consumer, it's certainly a possibility.

positive energy sector. I mean, case and point, think about what's happening right now with earning season and with estimates for earnings across energy, across materials. And again, I'll piggyback on something that you just said, which is take a look at what's happening in the equity markets. The economic data and the equity markets are not necessarily one and the same. They are clearly related, but at the same time, it's important to recognize the U.S. economy has been resilient, and there are clearly some bright spots, particularly when you take a look at what's happening with corporate America. Ryan, Dietrich from the Carson Group joins this as well.

Ryan, it is always good to see you. Well, thank you, Frank. The Gremlin's got me here, but I'm back, so I'm not exactly sure what we just talked about, but I'll just put it like this. Listen, this rally's been incredible, obviously hitting new highs. We know that. But Frank, I think Lister's might like to know this. We're going to be up 3% this week.

It'll be the third week in a row of 3%. You go back in history. It only happened two other times. The lows in 82 and then the lows off of COVID and now. I get it. small sample size, but this blast of strength, this blast of buying we've seen is not consistent with kind of a bear market rally or just, you know, a short covering rally. I mean, it is the, in our opinion, it's an extension of the bull market we've been in for a while and we're still

quite optimistic here. Yeah, you put that on social media as well, Ryan. According to your research, after those two shocks in 82 and COVID, the markets went up over 30 percent. So I think a lot of people would like to see that happen. Everybody, just stick around for a second. We want to toss things over to our Sima Modi for a look at how software is faring ahead of some key earnings that are up next week. Seema. Well, Frank, there's already been a couple of drivers of software this week. Anthropics decision to release a scaled-down version of Mythos, which was a sigh of relief for the market, raising hopes that future AI models will be handled with greater restraint.

At that, Oracle announcing an investment in Bloom Energy's fuel cell technology, a sign that it, too, is taking steps to similar to Google and Microsoft to become more energy efficient. The market liked it. Stock now up 30 percent so far this week. Oracle's rebound founder Larry Ellison now has gained, regained about $50 billion on paper. So it was stock to watch so far this week. The conversation around software will certainly pivot to earnings with IBM and ServiceNow set to report on Wednesday of next week.

City last week initiating IBM at a buy rating while Oppenheimer reiterated its outperform rating on ServiceNow. Analyst there estimate that the company will generate more than 10% of revenue from AI by the fourth quarter. And Frank, that's going to be key this quarter, right? Software giants proving that their AI capabilities and products are starting to win customers and generate a return without that proof point. Wall Street's concerns around AI displacement will likely get louder. Back to you. All right, R. CMOD, with the very latest on software ahead of some key earnings coming up next week. All right, Anastasia, Ryan and Joe, thank you guys for all sticking around. Ryan, you joined us late. I want to come back over to you. What is your take on the software sector? I was talking to Anastasia about this earlier. The Opus 4.7. came out, supposed to be better at writing software and a number of other things. Why aren't we more concerned about AI disruption with this model coming out?

Well, we are. Obviously, we've had the massive correction in software, but I'll tell you, kind of like last year, right, when everything's sold off after Deep Seek and you realize these companies are making a lot of money, they do have strong moats. You know, Carson Group, we managed a lot of money. We added some software, maybe about a month ago, and I know it hasn't done great since then, but I think for longer-term investors, it's really cheap. We're going to find out this earning season if it's worth it, but we think it is. And just tech in general is, taking back that baton. put a bow on this. We think Texan do really well as second half of this year. It's probably a little bit

growth over value of the second half of this year, which is a good sign for investors. All right, Joe, I want to come over to you. One of the things you're watching is private credit. You mentioned it a bit earlier. Are Sarah and Eisen, she sat down with Mark Rowan from Apollo, and he basically said, if you can't do the redemptions, he called people an idiot, but he also said maybe investors just don't know what they own and they need to be more aware of what they own, and that's what's leading to some of this, quote-unquote skittishness in the market. Do you think that settles down once we have less geopolitical tension if this ceasefire when it comes to the straight-ahor moves and this opening actually plays out the way it seems like a lot of people hope it will today.

I mean, I think it's certainly a hope. I don't know that I would necessarily hang my hat on that. I think ultimately what you're seeing play out in private credit is just the aftermath of what took place in public markets with respect to software stocks in particular, right? You have AI. It is clearly a disruption, a disruptor, and it's having a negative impact to a degree or at least perceived negative impact on these public companies. It's ultimately going to spill over into private credit. ultimately in private credit, you do have a bit of friction here between an asset that is relatively illiquid and providing liquidity to the masses. At the end of the day, it comes down, I think, to education and to investor education. But overall, we think there's opportunity there, and it continues to make sense.

Anastasia? Yeah. Look, there's so much to say about private credit. First of all, I want to pick up on the point about redemptions and the limitations to those redemptions. That's not a flaw that is a feature and that is a needed one because, as Joe pointed out, when you have an illiquid asset and a semi-liquid structure that is the evergreen structure, you have to have some of those redemption restrictions to protect actually investors. So I think, first of all, that is a good thing. The second thing is let's decouple the fundamentals of private credit about the concerns about private credit. And the fundamentals, if I look at

equity cushions, they're actually much higher than there were years ago. If I look at leverage in private credit, it is lower than it was years ago. And at the same time, the earnings of some of those portfolio companies are actually stabilizing and the coverage ratios are improving. So from a pure macro perspective, there's nothing wrong with private credit. Now, the concern, I think, started because of the software. And what I would say there is we really think the trend in private credit is the bifurcation of returns. And of course, there's going to be some software companies that will get caught up on the

AI disruption. But as I mentioned before, we're not talking about 20% of private credit. we're maybe talking about 7% that is software at risk within private credit. The realistic default rate is likely to be much lower. Here's the key, key point, Frank, about private credit is so many private credit managers did not even exist. We're not in the business five years ago. So when you think about how much money came into the asset class, something like 45% of funds were launched in the last five years. Have they seen the full credit cycle?

Have they seen technological disruption? Absolutely not. So I think it is about bifurcation, about selection, and sticking with the managers who've been doing this for a long time. Anesthesia, those are all fair points. And the fundamentals tell one story. People's sentiment seems to tell a different story. I want to go to the sentiment part. Yeah.

Should people be concerned, at least sentiment-wise, the fact that so many of the big banks are lending to these private credit shops and other non-depository financial institutions? And the fact that so much of their cash is going to these organizations? No, I don't think so. So first of all, I mean, let's compare and contrast to the financial crisis and the mortgage-backed securities, what you had back then is securitization over-securitization over and over again. You don't have that with private credit today. The asset class has grown, but it is not packaged and repackage and re-sold. And so that's the first thing.

The second thing is the credit lines that the banks provide to private credit managers are there, but they're not the only last resort that the private credit managers can draw on. For example, loans do mature. They get repaid. And also, most credit funds do have 10 to 15% liquidity cushion otherwise. So I would say the bank credit lines is the last resort or one of the last resorts, but it's not the only liquidity lever that's out there. All right.

It's certainly not the end of this conversation. Anastasia, Ryan and Joe, thank you all very much. Great to see you all. All right. Meantanthropic CEO, Dario Amodi, meeting with the White House chief of staff today. Mackenzie Sagalos there with all the details, Mac. So Frank, that could be happening at any minute now. At the Southwest Gate here at the White House, this is where visitors are coming through.

This is a notable departure for the government. It was just a couple of weeks ago that they designated Anthropica supply chain risk, banned their agencies and contractors from working with Anthropic. And then Mythos changed the game. That's their cyber AI model that has a perception of being the most powerful LLM on the market today. So much so that Anthropic is limiting access. But reportedly, the government is testing it out with some of its intelligence-related agencies. But Treasury wants it.

Multiple other federal agencies want it. And that's exactly what talks. today are all about. So what we're going to see also is whether we get any word on whether that supply chain risk designation could go away because my understanding right now is that those are two different conversations. The White House wants to know about mythos and the Department of Defense still has an ongoing lawsuit with Anthropic in two different courtrooms, Frank. McKenzie Sagalos, live from D.C. with the very latest. It's certainly a very interesting meeting. Mac, please bring us any other headlines that come out of that meeting that you hear.

Thank you. All right. We want to send things over to our PIPA Stevens for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. Pippa, what do you say? Hey, Frank, well, a lot of stocks are moving around the latest Iran war headlines. So let's start here with the cruise lines. Royal Caribbean is leading the S&P today, followed up by Carnival. Her region is also among the best performers. Higher fuel prices had been a headwind for the industry. You see their Royal Caribbean up nearly 8%. On the other side, chemical companies like Lionel, Bacel, and Dow are the two laggards on the S&P. The Strait of Formuz sees many petrochemicals flow through it as a byproduct of the oil and gas production in the Gulf and the two

have seen double-digit gains since the war began, those shares down more than 10%. And similar to those two, CF Industries, a major fertilizer producer, is down about 9% as the street bet the company would be able to raise prices for its fertilizer products amid a backlaw from the Strait of Hormuz. The stock is still up some 46% on the year. Frank? All right, our Pippa, Steve. Pippa, thank you very much.

We'll see again in just a bit. We are just getting started right here on closing bell. Coming up next, airline analysts suggesting their long-term estimates ahead of a very, very busy week of earnings. Why and what it might mean for those stocks, we'll have that coming up. We are live from the New York Stock Exchange, and you're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. And welcome back. Head of the busiest week of earnings for the airlines, analysts are cutting their long-term earnings estimates. Our Phil O'Bow has much more on that story. Phil. Yeah, Frank, they've cut their full-year estimates anywhere between like 25 and 28 percent, depending on the carrier.

When we get the first quarter reports next week, three things people are going to be focused on. what's the jet fuel impact? Remember, these are Q1 results and they really got hammered in March. That's going to be the focus on the cost side. What's happening with spring and summer bookings? That'll be one of the key questions for the CEOs when they're talking on the analyst calls. And there's also going to be a number of questions about industry consolidation, especially when we have two airlines in particular who have been front and center with this this week. On Wednesday, we will hear from United CEO Scott Kirby. That's when the United has its conference call after posting Q1 results on Tuesday afternoon. And then the following day, we will hear from Robert Isam, CEO of American Airlines after his

company reports its Q1 results. Curious if this is going to be one of those, hey, you know, it's out there or if there's going to be something a little meatier to discuss with both of those gentlemen. As you take a look at the airline stocks today, Frank, heck of a pop for Alaska Airlines, up almost 10%. We will hear from Alaska Monday afternoon and then talk with Ben Minicucci on Tuesday. Frank, back to you. Our Phil A beau with the very ladies that have a big week for airline earnings. Phil, thank you very much.

Let's bring in Raymond James airline analyst, Savvy, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for having me, Frank. All right. So, Savvy, are you one of these analysts that are cutting your earnings estimates for the airlines? Because I'm looking right here. I'm seeing a strong buy and outperform. Strong buy outperform. Yeah, what we did is we definitely cut two Q to 3 Q in a big way. a 4Q we were assuming that given the fare increases and, you know, fuel probably improving, assuming that the straight opens at some point, that you're back to trend line by the fourth quarter from most airlines. And then 2027 looking a lot like what we were expecting even before.

Clearly, there's a lot of volatility in there. You know, it depends on the domestic demand environment and just general economy holding up. But we did cut 2026 quite a bit, just given how much fuel has moved. All right. We got to talk about M&A and also the idea of the spirit liquidation. What does that mean for this industry? What does it mean for investors into the stocks? Is a combination of American and United potentially? Obviously, it's not a fish. Our Philibault just kind of laid that out. Is that good for that combined company? Would it take market share? Would it be able to charge more for seats? What's the upside for investors? Yeah, so that was a lot there, Frank. But I start with spirit. They've been struggling for a

while. And it looked like just to start the year, demand was so strong that, you know, they could probably survive through the summer, but it was still precarious. Their product changes are taking some, you know, having some fruition there, but just a lot to try and come back from. And now with higher fuel, it looked pretty, you know, it looked imminent that spirit would be shutting down here. Now with fuel pulling back, we'll see if that gives them a little respite, but most likely it's going to be hard for them to kind of get past that real tough, May trough period, especially given some of the operational issues that you've been having there. On the MNA front, American United, like, if they can pull it off, it's a coup. It would create a really big airline on

the domestic side, you know, almost twice as big on the domestic side as Delta or Southwest. It gives them a strong position in Chicago. So there's a lot to like. It gives a united position in the southeast, which they do not have today. So there is a lot to like about that M&A from an investor perspective. And even from a consumer perspective, there are some things that you do to like there. It really creates kind of a one airline that can bring you and do a lot of things for you. You know, from a kind of political perspective, I think it might have a harder time passing, just given, again, the size that you're creating with that MNA.

All right. We spent a lot of time talking about the housing affordability crisis. could we be reaching an airline affordability crisis, depending on what site you look at. Airfares, they increase double digits in March, anywhere from 10 to 15 percent, depending on whose stats you want to use. How much more can the U.S. consumer pay? So what I would say is just airline costs have gone up a lot, Frank. And airlines were still just working their way to recouping all the damage done during COVID in terms of how much costs have gone up. Labor costs have gone up 30 to 40 percent.

you know, engine costs are going up 12% a year. Fuel, you know, depending on what year you're looking at, definitely now, just significantly higher. So airlines, what they're trying to do is recoup those costs that have gone up. Last year, unfortunately, you saw demand impacted by all the various policy uncertainties, and you finally started seeing demand coming back. And that was what airlines were trying to do this year. And, you know, when half the industry is not making money, clearly this is not price gouging. This is airlines trying to do. get the fare that covers their cost. And so it was looking like we were heading in the right direction this year.

But unfortunately, now with fuel doubling, you have seen some fair increases, as you point out over the last month. But I think that covers fuel getting to maybe in the low $3s, $1 per gallon versus, you know, in the low twos at the beginning of the year, but not, you know, the $4 to $5 fuel per gallon that you're seeing today. So even at today's fuel prices, this is not enough fair increase. and we're hoping that as the straight traffic eases and as the fuel complex kind of normalizes again slowly over time, but normalizes, that maybe some of the fair increases that you've seen today will help airlines kind of get a strong footing.

Savi, these fair increases have been pretty extreme. Anybody who's looked up a flight has seen the big moves to the upside, Savi Sith, great to see you. Thank you very much. All right, still ahead. Five-star stock advice, Capital Wealth Planning's Kevin Simpson. He's standing by with his latest trades. Closing Bell, we'll be right back. And welcome back to closing bell.

Stocks are rallying to close out the week of trading with the SEP and the NASDAQ hitting new all-time intraday highs. My next guest says, while the market could take a leg higher, this is not an all-clear moment for stocks. Join me now is Kevin Simpson of capital wealth planning. Kevin, good to see you. What do you mean? Why is this the all-clear? I mean, everybody seems to think it is today, at least. We're getting a lot of news that seems like we're leaning towards the straightforward moves officially opening. Why isn't it the all-clear? All right, well, let's lean into that. Who wants to be the bearer of bad news on a Friday, especially after a great day, like we saw today, Frank. And what I like most about it is the breadth of this market. Today specifically,

it's not just the Mag 7. It's not just tech. You've got the S&P. You've got the Dow, the NASDAQ. Heck, even the Russell's moving higher. So to your point, it was almost like a sigh of relief. We had that all clear signal with respect to the straits. But again, is it an all clear for real? I think we need to get through a little bit more time to see if that's actually the case. but there's enough of a foundation, Frank, for this market to move higher. I'm just looking at it from the standpoint of, boy, it's come really far, really fast, and where do we go from here? I mean, I think that's the question.

A lot of people are trying to figure out. Again, we have Jonathan Krenzky coming up on the show in just a bit. He says he wouldn't chase today's rally. We could see a bit of a pullback in the major indices. Are there any moments coming up next week that make you concern? Because so far, earning season is off to a great start. Earning's up 14%. We do have some economic reports like retail sales,

Could that be something that could change investor sentiment? What are you seeing on the horizon that could change the direction that we're going at? Well, I think oil is the real linchpin that continues to be. And as we're seeing today, down oil up market. I thought we were assuming that things are going to stay on this path when it comes to the straight of her moves, at least in the near term. We're just kind of playing that game today with the markets up. Besides oil, is there something else that you think could derail this rally? No, I don't, Frank.

And I think that's strong to your point, because if you look at earnings, even what we've gotten so. far, it's almost like a smorgish board of good news. You had Taiwan semi saying that the AI trade is intact. You had Pepsi saying that the consumer is still spending. If you go back to the start of the week, you had the bank saying that, look, the economy is still decent. It's not cracking by any means. I expect next week that we're going to have solid earnings reports as well. It's just a question of what does that guidance look like? Has the higher energy prices trickled into those guides as it trickled into Q2, three, and four. And if not, then we've got a really good foundation here for the market to trend higher. I just never want to look at like a complete blind optimist.

All right, Kevin, we've been to lunch before. You know I like a smorries board, man. You know I love that. But when it comes to the markets, you're just kind of nibbling. I want to go to one of your moves. You initiated a new position in Tempice AI, precision medicine, biotech. What made you nibble there? All right. So this is in our growth portfolio. So tread lightly before you follow us into this one. This is an AI trade, but it's a biotech healthcare AI. And we really like that. We've been watching the stocks since it went public in 2024, shot up over 100 bucks, came back down into the mid-50s. So we started and initiated a little position at $55. Now, this isn't just speculative AI. It's really a database that has accumulated about 40 million data points. These are very private

records, but when you have genomics and this type of clinical database at that level, I mean, it's legit. And the more data you have, the better your models and the more people you can save. Additionally, they've got earnings. They're guiding for $1.6 billion in revenue for 2026. That's some real money. And I think the catalyst, or the final thing that we really like from a bullish standpoint is they announced earlier this month that they have a contract with Gilead, and it's for oncology for several years with a joint marketing venture. So this is a company that's got certainly a little bit of risk to it, but with this type of risk, we think it can be great reward. And AI within health care is one of the places where I think you can monetize it sooner

rather than later. All right. You also wrote some covered calls on American Express. Now, I'm looking at the numbers here. It looks like you're getting your cake and you're eating it too. So walk us through this one. You sold the calls at 360. Right now the stock's trading at about 333, 33, 34. Walk us through the whole move. Yeah, you and I talked last Friday about if this market moves higher, we're going to start getting active in the call writing. We've been super patient, and fortunately we have been because the market move higher. The mechanics of this trade, you know, we love American Express. Stocks trading around 333, as you mentioned.

This gives us the ability to participate in the growth up to 360. So we've got another, you know, 10, 20 points to move higher. But the idea is that this is expiring in only one month. So it's a one month covered call. It brought in $2.20. a share, when you annualize that, it comes out to like an 8% annualized premium. Now, granted, we're not doing it on a rolling cycle, but if you can enhance it from a cash flow perspective by 8% annualized, you can hedge it a little bit. And we still love the name. They report earnings next

week. I think if you're from your mouth to God's ears, if we can get the best of both worlds on that one. I mean, it would take a big upside move for this to be in the money. Kevin Simpson. It is always good to see you. Thank you very much. Thanks, Frank. Coming up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we have. head into the close. Our PIPA Stevens, she's back with that and much more PIPA. I'm back, Frank, because one Fintech stock is getting the stamp of approval from Morgan Stanley, and we've got the name to watch coming up next. And just about 13 minutes until the closing bell, let's get back to our PIPA Stevens

with a look at the key stocks to watch, PIPA. Hey, Frank, Netflix is one of the worst performers on the S&P today, down nearly 10% as the streaming giant's current quarter guidance came in below expectations in its first report since the Warner Brothers deal split. Co-Ceo-Ceo-Cerrandos, emphasized on the call that the deal was a nice to have, not a need to have. In a big governance change, co-founder Reid Hastings also announced that he would leave his role as chair of Netflix's board. Meantime Alcoa is also falling after earnings. The aluminum producer missed expectations across the board as alumina production fell 5%.

The company did maintain its production and shipment guidance for Illum and aluminum in the full year. And Affirm is getting a nice boost from Morgan Stanley today, who named the stock a top pick. Analysts there are bullish on a firm's ability to grow its total transactions and call fears around its links to private credit overblown. That stock here up 7%. Frank. All right, Pippa, thank you very much. Our Pippa Stevens. We are also getting some news on META. Our Sima Modi has that for us.

Frank, META is planning a round of layoffs, according to a report from Reuters quoting sources. The report suggests that the first wave of cuts from META, around 10% of META's workforce. That's about 8,000 employees. Further layoffs are planned for latest this year. We are reaching out to META. We'll get back to you with the latest for now. I'll send it back to you. All right.

Sima Modi with the very latest on META, those shares up about one and three quarters of 1% right now. Coming up next, you got BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky. He is standing by to wrap up a busy week on Wall Street. You can all see the Dow right now up about 860 points. Plus, we'll tell you what's been driving the big bounce in Bitcoin, the market zone. Coming up next. On the closing mail market zone, Mike Santoli and BTIG's Jonathan Khrinsky.

They're here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, Simomodi tracking the moves in crypto and the big bounce in strategy stock. Also, Pippa Stevens, standing by with the very latest on oil. Mike, let's start off with you. What do you make of the action that we're seeing in the markets today? We've been hitting this all day long. The NASDAQ, 13-day wind streak. It looks like that's all but certain at this.

point. For sure. And as a broad principle, if you have the S&P up four and a half percent, we have had this historic streak across the indexes, you have to respect the strength and persistence of that kind of move, a market that can go from, you know, kind of on its heels and oversold, surging to overbought and having people forced to participate. And of course, it's a company on a day like today with easing financial conditions, a lot of the news flow supporting this rebound rally. I do wonder if we're crossing over from that point when just less bad news is good enough to keep us going higher. I would note we've sort of moderated the gains throughout the day. Some of the stuff that was first to bounce most aggressively, like Sandisk and Micron and Oracle, are actually down on the day.

So part of that is a rational rotation. Part of it might be that we're getting a little bit winded in the near term. All right, Mike, what do you got coming up on O.T? Well, we're going to try to get at that question about the risk reward for the market from a couple of angles. We've got Keith Lerner who says, you know, this is actually reaffirming the bull market. Charlie Brinskoi wonders if we're already fully valued. So that's the key debate. And we're also going to look at Microsoft as an interesting representative of this tech comeback trade.

All right. Mike Santoli, we're seeing just a few minutes coming up on O.T with Melissa Lee. Thank you very much. I want to send things over to Seema for a quick look at crypto. Seema, what are you seeing? Hey, Frank. optimism around a ceasefire in Iran has boosted equities and crypto is not far behind with Bitcoin back over 77,000. Its highest level since February of this year. So a significant rebound.

The outperformance in crypto sending micro strategy shares higher whenever Bitcoin jumps, its holdings become more valuable. Thus why it is outperforming today. Strategy owns billions in Bitcoin with the average price of just over 76,000. So their massive investment is back in the green with the recent price action that we're seeing. today, Frank. All right, our Sima Modi, Sima, thank you very much. Now, let's get over to our Pippa Stevens for a look at the big moves in oil, Pippa. What do you see? Well, Frank, oil is dropping amid optimism that chip traffic through the straight of Hormuz could begin to normalize U.S. oil trading as low as $80.56 today, just about $13 above where prices were prior to

the war. And today, dropping below its 50-day moving average for the first time since January. Now, CIPC, private wealth, Rebecca Babin, saying the market is repricing the idea of reopening faster than the reality of it, and that until we see actual vessel counts move, this is still a headline-driven repricing, not a confirmed shift in physical flows. Now, in the coming days, we will see if ship owners are willing to send their crews through the waterway, but for the time being, nothing has meaningfully changed. And once traffic does resume, many are saying it will take weeks, if not months, for flows to become fully functional.

Frank? All right, our Pippa Stevens, Pippa. Thank you very much. And as we head towards the bells, this spring in BTIG's, John. Jonathan Krenski, Jonathan, good to see you. Your ears must have been burning. I've been talking about your note all day today looking at the rally. You said, don't chase it. Why not?

Why wouldn't you chase this rally? We seem to see a lot of tailwinds and a lot of good news that could play out over the weekend and actually make things when it comes to oil and also geopolitical tensions seem a lot better for investors. Hey, Frank. So I think it ultimately comes down to time frame. And we got a lot of signals in the last couple weeks that suggest that it is a durable rally and should have sustained legs

beyond the 7,000 level for the S&P 500. And we still think that's the case, right? So, you know, it's called the medium term outlook. It still looks pretty good. I think it's a function of, are you going to get a better chance, at better entry point after 13 straight up days in the NASDAQ,

you know, 15, 16% rally there? And we think the answer is probably yes. But again, I think a lot of it comes down to which parts of the market you're talking about. We do still think software has has legs, but if you look at the semis, which have, you know, certainly been leadership throughout this year, they are now 17% above their 50-day moving average, which is, you know,

about as extreme as you've seen over the last couple decades. So there's just parts of the market that I think are showing a little bit too much here and are likely to see some pullback in the near term. All right. Just to be clear, you don't think this is the, you know, ultimate top when it comes to the NASDAQ, you see more upside. But you're saying this isn't the best entry point after 13 higher days. You also say strength against strength. So if you're not looking to play the strength in the NASDAQ, is there some other area of the market where you see a more attractive entry point? It's, you know, it's tough right now. Again, there's, I think, you know, outside of energy, obviously, which has been inverse to the market, there's not much

that is not super extended. I think that's the issue is, you know, we like to find entry points that are a little more, give a little better risk reward rate in the near term. You know, Maybe you could look at some of the quasi-defensive areas like consumer staples or health care that, you know, certainly have not seen a bounce. And along those lines, we also think bonds are interesting because, you know, as crude rallied as the escalation increased, bonds sold off kind of in tandem. And then since we've seen crude pull back over the last couple weeks in stocks rally, bonds really haven't participated. So we think there's probably upside for bonds and maybe that could support some of those more defensive areas of the market as well in the near term. All right, so we got some news about the straight-of-form moves that a lot of investors wanted to hear. It's also options expiration day.

How do those two things kind of come together in the accident we saw in the market today? Yeah, I mean, so options expiration does historically often mark some sort of inflection points, especially when you see strong moves, whether it's advances or declines into the expiration. And then you combine that with the fact to your point that there was a news-related gap up. And so there's a lot of optimism on that into this option of expiration that lends itself to a potential hangover, we think, as we head into next week. And again, it's nothing serious at this point, but just, you know, I think it'll consolidate the charts and make those entry points a little bit better as we head into the summer. I just want to make sure I understand your point, John, though. You're saying that this rally, it may have been a bit less if it wasn't for the fact that we saw options expirations.

Was that one of the tailwinds that move a lot of these indices higher? You know, that's certainly possible, but I think more so the fact you get a lot of, of options expiring, and when you get on the other side of that expiration, you often can kind of go the opposite way that you moved into expiration. So yes, to your point, certainly the options I do think played a part, and then you had the news kind of exasperating that as well. All right. Jonathan Crenske from BTIG. Thank you very much. Great note. We're talking about it all day long. You have a great weekend. Thanks, thank you too. I want to take a quick look at the markets as we've been talking about all day long, the

NASDAQ, more than like that. I don't want to say it's definite, but we're 45 seconds away from hitting a 13-day win streak, longest win-street or longest 13-day win-street, or best win-street since 1992. You guys know what I mean. We're also looking at the Dow right now. You can see it is up about one-and-three-quarters of 1%. The S&P up about 1 and a quarter percent, the small-caps, the best performer on a percentage basis, up over 2 percent as we go into the close right now.

You can also talk about oil all day along. Big pullback when it comes to oil. WTI pulling back more than 10 percent. Brent coming back about 9 percent. That's been a big part of this. Now it's going to do us for us and closing bell. Now it's time to send it into overtime with Melinda Lee and with Mike St. Hain told me.

Have a great reason.