Closing Bell - Closing Bell: When Will the Uncertainty End? 3/31/25

Episode Date: March 31, 2025

Is Wednesday’s expected tariff announcement just the thing to end all the market uncertainty? We get the latest with our own Megan Cassella and discuss Strategas’ Chris Verrone. Plus, we break down what is next for the Fed with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin. And we drill down on a big move in the energy space as we wrap up the quarter. 

All right guys thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. Scott Wobbler live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This Make or Break Hour begins with yet another day of uncertainty in the markets. Tariffs looming. Investors assessing where the U.S. economy is heading from here. On that note we will have an exclusive interview with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin in just a few moments right here at the New York Stock Exchange.

Let's show you the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. Different picture than it was earlier in the session. We've actually come back a lot from this morning's retest of the March lows. You can see S&P and Dow positive now.

Walmart leading the staples higher and Nvidia pacing for its lowest close of the year as tech continues its selling. We'll watch that closely, of course, over this final stretch, which takes us to our talk of the tape when all of this market uncertainty might end and whether Wednesday's expected tariff announcement is the thing to do it. Let's start there with the very latest from the White

House our own Megan Casella. What is the very latest Megan? Hey Scott so just in the last hour or two we got just a few more details on what to expect on those reciprocal tariffs this week. White House press secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters that the full cabinet will be here in the Rose Garden for an event on Wednesday and that the president will be announcing the rollback of unfair trade practices. That to me suggests the focus will be on how other countries have responded to the tariff threat. Maybe less of a focus on new tariffs we'll have to see.

As for the tariff rates themselves, a White House official tells me earlier today that Trump's decision will come down to the wire, in part because he's waiting to see how other countries are responding. We know the president has received reports now from each of his economic advisors on this. He's weighing all of those as he makes his decision as for how far reaching the tariffs will be. Now Caroline Levitt had this to say about what to expect take a listen. The goal of Wednesday a country-based tariffs but certainly sector sectoral tariffs the president has said he's committed to

implementing them and I'll leave it to him on when he makes that decision in that announcement. So clearly there, Scott, putting the focus on the country-specific measures while not shutting the door entirely on some sectoral measures, pharmaceuticals or semiconductors as well. I would sum it up this way. The plans at this point are very much still in flux. And while we will get some answers on Wednesday, it increasingly does not look like we will be getting the clarity that the market has been craving Scott

All right, Megan. Thanks so much for that You'll bring us up to date on more headlines as you get them Megan can sell the recovery off today's lows Intensifying with the S&P now positive for the day. Let's bring in Chris Ferrone He is partner and chief market strategist at strategist. Welcome back. It's nice to see you Great to see you still in flux the words of the day. What does that mean for stocks? Well, yeah Well, I think when you look at the market's response today, to us, it's reflective that a lot of bad

news has likely been priced over the last number of weeks. I mean, we're down 10 from the highs. This is that retest of that, call it 5450, 5500. So now the retest is never fun, but we pointed out a couple interesting little facts kind of heading into the week. Note the VIX is below where it was really during the peak stress moment of mid-march so is currency vol so is bond vol you actually had fewer stocks making new lows last week in this and this morning despite the S&P trading back to

that fifty five hundred level corrections are not fun but remember lows are put in on bad news not on good news and I think we've priced in at least for now, a lot of bad news. I would suspect we rally out of this. 5,900, maybe 5,950 kind of being the top end of the range moving forward. So you're approaching April 2nd, Wednesday, as a clearing event, it sounds like.

You're in the Tom Lee camp. Get this out of the way, and then we will have a nice rebound into April, though Goldman's Tony Pasquerella with a note today not really sold on that quote the big dynamics in the game have changed and it's not

obvious to me that April 2nd will prove to be that clearing event. Preservation of capital is the name of the game right now. What what he's implying for certain. Yeah sure you get more tariff

news and you get it out of the way. But the game has changed. The goalposts have moved. What does that mean? I think if the game has truly changed, and this is just not a 10% drawdown, but the start of something more pronounced,

frankly, it's not gonna be a question that we're gonna be able to answer until later this spring or this summer as we watch this market rally. Does it rally with the expanding breadth we wanna see? Do we see new highs re-expand? Do we see credit conditions start to behave here again? Those are the big questions I want to ask

over the coming weeks. But in the near term, the undefeated rule of Wall Street reigns once again. As prices change, so do attitudes. I mean, look at any investor survey here. They've been turned upside down. There's more bears than bulls in most of them. Look at the consumer confidence numbers

that we've gotten over the last several weeks. There's certainly a degree of pessimism out there that at least gets me interested in thinking about, hey, could this be the clearing event? What could actually go right from here? I think very little attention is being paid on that, Scott. Oh, it's funny. When you were talking about the rule on Wall Street, I thought you were talking about the Fed put because that's what everybody is thinking is going to come into play at some point. I got Tom Barkin sitting right to my left waiting for the interview

that we're all going to do momentarily. We're obviously going to ask him about that. Is that part of the calculus though, that at some point you either have a Fed put, a Trump put or a both put? Well, with all due respect to Mr. Barkin, we always say in our work, we care more about the message of the two year yield

than any Fed speaker. And I think the two year yield, breaking back down to this 380, 385 zone, I do think is reflective that the market's expectations from the Fed here are starting to shift. Now, Scott, when you think about this corrective phase, let's remember, financials have held up pretty well during this.

This is not your typical, financials are worse than the index, it's messaging some big financial issue that's out there. Financials went into this correction as your leadership. They've held their own during it. I think they're likely to come out the other side carrying the flag. Compare that to tech here. Tech did not go into this corrective phase as your leadership, nor has it provided any help on the way down. I think very, very unlikely tech returns as the leader some people might expect on the other side. Doesn't that lessen the possibility that the market can do okay? I mean, we're having

conversations day in, day out about uncertainty, slowdown versus recession, and tech's not going to lead the way, but the rest of the market is in the face of all of those questions? Yeah, I mean, market's bottom on bad news. I'll never forget that first pullback after the 2009 low when you got bad prints and everyone thought recession was coming back. That was the low of that pullback.

I use a similar kind of framework here. The headlines are about as bearish as we've seen in certainly a number of years. That doesn't mean you can't go lower framework here, the headlines are about as bearish as we've seen in certainly a number of years. That doesn't mean you can't go lower from here, but in terms of the tactical call, I do suspect a lot of this has been priced here. Whether it's $55.05, which was last week's low, or this morning, or maybe 50 S&P points lower, I generally think we're in the ballpark or in the zip code of what will be a tradable

low as we get into better seasonals into April and into May. If something more sinister is out there, I think we'll see it through credit, and I think we'll see it through financials not showing up on the other side. So far, there's not a lot of evidence of that just yet, Scott. Did the retest this morning do enough to convince you?

I mean, is that what it should have felt like if it was gonna be some sort of sustainable bounce off of that? You know, I thought it was interesting last week that even on Friday, what really felt like some high stress, the retest always feels worse. You were getting fewer and fewer stocks actually making new lows.

On Friday, only about 12% of the S&P made a new one month low. That was closer to 50% back in mid-March. So you began to see some of those conditions come together. I don't think this is gonna be one and done here. I'm kinda talking about over the next number of days, next number of weeks. I do think this tradable rally likely comes together

as we get better seasonals into the spring here. All right, I appreciate your time. Thank you. Thank you very much. We'll leave it there. That's Chris Ferrone joining us. Now let's bring in Richmond Fed President, Tom Bark along with our senior economics correspondent Steve Leesman here post nine It's an exclusive interview and Steve. It's nice to see you president Barkin. Nice to have you Steve. You started off Okay. Well, thanks for joining us Tom

Let's start off with what we just heard which is you had recently spoken about the fog that's out there on policy. Are you expecting Wednesday to have greater clarity? Well, we'll see what we learn on Wednesday. I don't know any more than you do. But my sense is it's going to take a while before people know what rates are going to be imposed on what countries and what products for what for how long, with what kind of retaliation and then importantly, how do countries and businesses and consumers respond? So my base case is it'll take a while to get clarity here.

You've been on top of this issue of how companies respond from the very beginning of the pandemic, and you were one of the people who pointed out this idea that you thought there was pricing power after like 20 years when companies didn't have it. Where are we in this process? And does the idea that we just went through a period of inflation make you more concerned about prices going up more broadly beyond tariffs? So I've been reflecting on 2019, 2022.

In both cases we had supply cost increases, 2019 tariffs, 2022, all the supply chain issues. In 2019 everything was anchored. I mean, businesses didn't think they could pass on price. Consumers didn't know what a price increase was. And we really didn't see a ton in terms of inflation. Go to 2022, where businesses just had the imperative, they had to do something. And consumers had the stimulus funds

and other excess savings that they could use to spend it. I think this is very different this time on both dimensions. The suppliers I talked to are emboldened. They're saying very explicitly they're going to have to take it on. We're going to have to pass those prices on. The consumers are exhausted and frustrated and tired of paying high prices. Think of it as a cage match between a very strong immovable force and an irresistible object.

And I'm going to be very interested how this plays out. I'm not as convinced that people are going to be passed the tariffs on. I'm also not as convinced that there's not going to be inflation. I want to show you our inflation outlook from the rapid update today. This is the average of the PCE core PC forecast of 14 Wall Street forecasters. You probably follow all of them Goldman and JP Morgan and everybody. And when you look at it, you're at 3% at or near there for quite a while. Tell me where you feel comfortable cutting interest rates in an environment where, for example, by the third quarter, you still have a 3% core PCE, a percentage point above your

target. Well, let's start by saying these are forecasts and they're forecasts. They could be wrong. I mean, I think to cut rates you'd have to get confidence on inflation. You have to get confidence that inflation is settling. You could get that confidence because it actually continues to settle. You could get that confidence because the economy is in such tough shape that you feel that whatever downturn

you have will also settle inflation. Or I guess you could believe that these are just going to be one time, one month, two month events and you're on the back side. The core to me is it's all about inflation. And the higher the inflation numbers, the less likely are you going to see that. It's definitely according to some about the flation part of it. The problem is that some say stagflation, if not a principal risk, is the here and now. Would you listen to a soundbite from Robert Kaplan, the former Dallas Fed president, just the other day with me right here, and I want you to react to it on the other side.

We are in kind of a slower growth sticky inflation Period right now that is stack relation. The issue is is growth going to slow dramatically more Than what what we're seeing ie is it going to go from? Expecting two and a quarter two and a half to one of two words is it going to slow to one or down to stall speed? I feel like the chart that Steve put up with those expectations of core inflation only underscore this argument as you keep getting GDP expectations come in. Is this stagflation now? Well, first of all, great to hear Rob again.

Hope he's doing well. And I'll just say that when we use the phrase stagflation, we're immediately talking about the 70s. And stagflation, we're immediately talking about the 70s. And stagflation in the 70s had one more piece to it. It wasn't just whether you had a high inflation and lower growth. It was inflation expectations getting out of whack. And the key, the reason Volcker and others had to do so much about stagflation was that expectations were out of whack.

So far, at least the market measures are in good shape. We've obviously gotten some negative numbers from the Michigan survey. That's something to watch very closely. But my belief is as long as the Fed does what we need to do, you'll keep expectations in shape and therefore you'll keep the medium to longer term stagflationary impulses out of it. So this does not qualify to you in the current form

that this is stagflation now and what you could make the argument is the Fed's worst nightmare? Because what do you do in that scenario? Well, what we're seeing right now, actually the data is still in the game of okay. And so all of this is about forecasts and we'll see what the forecasts go. I do think that there's a risk on the employment side and Rob was suggesting some of that. The way I think about it is, if businesses pass on tariffs,

then that's good for them. It's inflationary, right? It hits prices. It also is gonna hit volume. So higher prices, lower volume, that's gonna have issues on the employment side. If they don't pass on tariffs, then lower prices, that's good for inflation,

but you know, you're gonna have margin squeeze. And if you have margin squeeze, that's also not good for employment So I'm watching very carefully whether this low hiring low firing equilibrium We've been in for the last nine months Which I had been hoping with the optimism of the fall was gonna break more toward hiring whether that's gonna break more toward firing That's what you've got to watch Where do you stand now in terms of your dot, if you don't mind my asking? The average or the median official, are you a median guy? Are you a two rate cutter this year?

Yeah, I don't talk about my dot. What I will say is I'm watching very carefully the inflation side. On the other side, I'm watching the employment side. I'm very open to what happens this year. But as I said in my speech, when you have this much fog, the last thing you want to do is put your foot on the gas. The second to last thing you want to do is put your foot on the brake. You really just want to pull over.

But there's another way of looking at this, Tom, which is that you are the driver in the sense that you are responsible for the outcome of the automobile. In that sense, there are some who say, if there is inflation on the back end of these tariffs, it's the Fed's fault. If inflation expectations get out of control, it's the Fed's fault. So to what extent are you now saying that no matter what happens, you're going to take care of inflation? I do appreciate that we're working the fog analogy fully. I don't know if you only put the high beams on or what's going to happen.

When you're answering this question, I got something for you too on that note. What's going to happen? I totally believe that it's our responsibility to do it with the end on inflation. And so what I don't know yet is what the inflationary impulse is going to be. And so you showed some forecasts.

We'll see what it is. If there's so much fog out there, right? Why does forward guidance make any sense? And doesn't it underscore why some suggest that the Fed should just get rid of it, that you guys have no better way of forecasting the economy than men on the street, than anybody else? No one knows what's going to happen, especially now with tariffs and everything else. Well, so thank you for saying that. That's what I was trying to say a second ago,

is it's not a time for me to stop and say, you know what, I've got penciled in one, two, or three this year, those aren't the right notes because you don't know where it's gonna go. There's a time for forward guidance. You know, you'd argue that back in 2010 when long rates were high and didn't believe that lower for longer was a thing,

that Bernanke throwing out the forward guidance was very helpful. But I don't think every time is a good time. Was it a mistake? Was it then this most recent Fed meeting? Should we not have had the guidance? We're sticking with two rate cuts this year trying to guide the market on what the expectations should be. Does that make any sense?

Well, we've committed to doing forecasts every quarter and releasing it. You could make an argument and I would probably jump on the bandwagon that we should only release them when they add value to the chair's statement. But you know, there's a lot of different points of view on that. Tom, can you spin a story that all of this works out okay, that we were back here, I don't know, hysterically talking about tariffs, and it didn't end up being that big a deal. Yeah, that would be 2018 and 2019. I mean, there was a lot of talk.

But they were much smaller. They were smaller tariffs. You could argue that inflation had not appeared suddenly. On the other hand, most of the studies would suggest 30 basis points of inflationary impact and maybe a modest negative, if any, to growth. You know, most of the studies would suggest 30 basis points of inflationary impact and maybe a modest negative, if any, to growth. Investor sentiment was negative in 2019 in particular.

Investment sentiment was negative. But it wasn't, you know, the world's worst outcome. So that's how you'd tell it. I think you could also tell a medium term story, which I think, you know, is a very reasonable story around what this does to manufacturing and domestic production, whatever. A lot of what we're talking about is the transition to whatever the medium term looks like. And how does that look to you in terms of how does growth balance out with inflation and unemployment? Are you looking for higher unemployment and lower growth this year? I'm nervous about the inflation side.

And then, you know, the imposition of extra costs on inputs aren't gonna be helpful. I am nervous about the employment side because I think as businesses and consumers and intermediaries go through this negotiation, you're gonna have some amount of margin pressure on the case of these companies. So I'm, I call me nervous on both. Do you think, you know, when you think about sort of the big

picture of what the administration is trying to do, and really trying to do it all at once, it's a full restructuring of the economy, moving from public to private, trying to redo the entire global trade dynamic, redoing global alliances. One of those, as I talked about this with Rob Kaplan, one of those in and of itself would be hard to predict an economic outcome based on. You put all three of those together at the same time. In your mind, does that increase the likelihood of a potential

bad outcome? Well, it increases the likelihood of unclarity on my mind. I mean, you've said it very well. There's a lot going on. And so I think we need to respond. We don't get to make policy. That's not our fiscal policy. That's not our remit. Our remit is monetary policy. We respond to the exogenous variables that come as they come. And so we'll make policy according to it. But there's a lot of uncertainty right now. And I think that, you know, makes the case for waiting and seeing how this plays out. Let me tell you who's not uncertain. The guys in the Fed Fund's futures pits, they're sure there's going to be at least two rate

cuts this year. And Scott just had a guest on smart smart guy, Strategus, right, who said follow the two year, which is down to 390, which tells you what? I mean, those guys are certain. What is the market message and how much do you listen to that? I don't listen to it much. We've had this back and forth between the Fed

and the markets for three years now in terms of very different rate paths at very different times. I would believe what you know the chair said at the last press conference which is we're in no hurry and let's wait and see how it plays out. That's the old gunlock idea too, Jeffrey Gunlock of DoubleLine. Follows the two year. Of course the two year is at this two rate cuts sort of 390 I guess that's about where you'd be today. I mean today it does it does move around a lot and it's a little hard to say what the definitive message is there but ultimately one more

question the balance sheet you guys decided to ease off the balance sheet will you throw in the market something were you saying that we're providing a little easing to the economy here? I think we said in the principles in June 22 we would slow before pausing and we slowed about, I don't know, nine or ten months ago and seemed to us to made sense to slow now. You know, as you approach the dock just to throw another analogy at you, you do want to slow down. And so we're looking for market signals of tightness.

We're not seeing a bunch of them so far, but you know, we'll see how it plays out. And I think this could be slower for longer. Let me just follow up on that for a moment because the fed chair himself speaking of tightness in the market directly cited some tightness in money markets when they made the announcement about the balance sheet how much are you thinking about

credit related issues some that don't appear today that might appear tomorrow and your ability to deal with whatever comes down the pike. I think you always wanna be thinking about those issues. I think when it comes to what we're doing in terms of the balance sheet, it's not credit that's really the concern, it's the working of financial markets. It's the plumbing, it's liquidity.

And those are the issues that you watch on what the overnight rate looks like versus IOE are, those sorts of issues. And we do watch that very carefully. We're still well below in the way that we would have been in early 2018, so I think we're still a ways away from tightness, but it did make sense to us at the time, as the chair said, after a good discussion,

to slow it down a little bit further. I think we'll leave it there. You have a last one? You want to leave it there? No, no, no. You thank because it's your show. I will. Thank you so much for being here. I really enjoyed being with you.

Thank you so much. It was great having you. Steve, you as well. Thanks for being here too. To Christina Partsanovelos now for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. Hi, Christina. Hi, Scott. Well, it's a big first trading day for Newsmax.

The conservative news outlet opened on the New York Stock Exchange at 14 bucks a share soaring more than 566 percent at this point right now trading at $66.95 triggering many trading halts for volatility. The network has only been around for what 10 years but is still in the top four spots for rating this according to Nielsen. So again shares are up over 56060%. Reddit shares are off earlier lows, but still remain down almost about 2.5% following a price target cut from Wells Fargo to 158 a share. Shares about 104.69. The bank cited concerns that Reddit skews more heavily to brand advertising versus peers, which is a segment where they anticipate increased pressures. Reddit shares are now on a seven week losing streak, Scott.

All right, Christina, thanks so much. That's Christina Partsanevlos. We're just getting started here. Up next, tech feeling some pain yet again on track for its worst quarter since Q2 of 2022. We will discuss what is at stake for that space coming up. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC.

NASDAQ worst performer today tech on track now for its worst quarter since the second quarter of 2022. Joining us now to discuss is JPMorgan Private Bank U.S. equity strategist, Abby Yoder, and Bernstein's top chip analyst, Stacey Raskin. It's great to have you both with us. Stacey, I'll go to you first simply because we could have the lowest close of the year for Nvidia. When does the issue stop here? I mean, and what is the key problem right now,

do you think? Yeah, there's a few things going on. So, I mean, clearly AI, you know, sentiment has deteriorated through the start of the year. The DeepSeek news was probably the trigger for it. Although it's sort of funny that the only thing that's really happened from a demand standpoint since DeepSeek sort of came on the scene

was demand going up, like not down. But it's clearly pressured sentiment. I think on top of that, when you start to layer in tariffs and just general geopolitical uncertainty, I mean, it's hit a lot of stocks, but a lot of the AI names were also like high flying. And given the increased uncertainty around spending environments and recessions

and everything else, it's hit a lot of them pretty severely. So Nvidia, as well as most of the other high flying AI names have had a tough quarter. Does it feel to you like they've corrected enough? Yeah. I mean, if the numbers are anywhere close to being correct, the evaluations mostly across the board are pretty attractive. If you look at pretty much all of the AI names, whether it's Nvidia or AMD or even Marvell or some of the others, they're all now trading

kind of in the low, Broadcom, they're trading in the low 20s. If you believe in sort of the secular theme around AI, I think those are incredibly attractive valuations but the worry is clearly that people are uncertain about the E, the earnings, right? So I don't know. I mean, that is sort of the big question. I would say right now, at least the demand environment still looks really, really strong. Just to pick on Nvidia, I think they're going to sell everything that they can get out the door this year. So that just becomes the question, how much can they get out the door? At this point, I would say the only ones that really seem to be worried about the AI,

demand environments seem to be investors. Like the companies that are actually doing the spending right now, their capex forecasts and requirements, they're going up, not down. So yeah, I think if the numbers are anywhere close to right, these valuations are very attractive. Okay, that leads me to you, Abby. I mean, have valuations corrected enough across the whole tech space?

Yeah, well, I think Stacey's point, right, is around whether or not the E is correct, let's say. And we're pretty confident that it is, right? Oh, really? Okay. Yeah, so we I think Stacey's point is around whether or not the E is correct. And we're pretty confident that it is. Oh, really? Okay. Yeah, so we came into the year the MAG-7 was expected to grow 19% year over year. It's down to something like 16%, which is in line with the negative revisions that we've

seen with the overall market. But today, you're now able to buy the MAG-7, and again, they're not a monolith, but if we're going to group them that way, at the cheapest level in six years, since 2016. Right, so that's a pretty attractive entry point if you believe in that secular growth trend, which we do believe in. Of course, if we actually have a recession or a deeper slowdown,

does that impact the way you would think about it? Yeah, but like you also have to think about, okay, if the concern is around the consumer, the predominant client of these firms are enterprises, right? So they're a little bit more insulated in terms of who their end customer is and how they're spending. And you think about company balance sheets, the cash flow that these companies are generating. I think that's something that stands out to us as being a little bit more resilient.

What about the market overall? I mean, 10% pullback, retest the low this morning. Does the price action tell you anything, make you want to lean in one direction as to whether you, as I've been asking the guests since we started the program today, do we correct enough? Does the worst feel like it's past?

What do you think? Yeah, I mean, I think there's some, you know, there's some technical support around these levels, 5,400, 5,500. And again, I think the big question is, is this a clearing event? And the view isn't necessarily that it's a clearing event because you have to think about towards next week,

we have earnings that are starting. So we're gonna get some real tangible tidbits from companies around how they're thinking about what this outlook means for their corporate fundamentals. So it may not be a clearing event, but I think around these levels, we definitely feel comfortable adding. Stace, are you comfortable with the idea

that tech may not be the leadership group moving forward and out of this and what the broader implications would be, no matter the fundamentals for a stock like Nvidia and some of the other mega caps, see the hyperscalers? I know you don't follow those specifically, but I think you understand where I'm going.

I mean, it's not up to me to be comfortable or not comfortable whether or not tech is leading us out of this. My job is to look at the fundamentals of the semiconductor space. At least around the AI point, like I said, I think the demand is there. But we can talk about broader fundamentals. In the semi space, there are a lot of uncertainties. We're waiting for Wednesday. I'm not even sure Trump knows what he's going to say on

Wednesday, and so certainly neither do we. So there's a lot of, like, increased fear there. You asked about recessions. I mean, semiconductors in general don't tend to do all that well in recessions. The correlation between semiconductor growth and GDP growth is pretty high. And so, you know, in general, like, it's kind of a tough environment right now until we get some certainty or clarity one way or the other on where tariffs and everything else is going to be. If we had sort of like just a solid view on what was going to happen,

like if tariffs were not coming on and off and on and off, it's very difficult for companies to plan when they don't want to know what's happening. As soon as we know what actually is happening, then maybe we can plan for it, companies can plan for it, and we can have a better view of where things are going. But until then, all of the geopolitical and policy uncertainty, it causes issues. And the setup in general is not that great. I mean, that's why the sector has not done that well pretty much since the election because of this.

Well, and Abby, I mean, you say you like software better than semis anyway yeah sorry Stace here's the here's the reason why I mean you mentioned the cyclicality right like but I think that's also important to take into account okay like okay yes they're more cyclical but what have they priced in you know in excess of what the market is priced in because to us right now the market isn't pricing in a recession if it's only 10% down from from recent highs, but other parts of the market are, right? Like, think about autos, you think about maybe semis for that matter. And I think you make a good point around certainty,

but I don't know that we're necessarily gonna get certainty. What would be important for companies at this juncture is having a framework, right? Like, that they can work with to make future decisions, like not necessarily clear certainty. All right, we'll leave it there. Thanks for being here. Thank you. All right, Abby, good to have you. Stacey, we'll leave it there. Thanks for being here. Thank you.

All right, Abby, good to have you. Stacy, we'll see you soon. Thank you, Stacy Raskin. Up next, investors awaiting this week's tariff rollout. We'll discuss what could be next for these markets. Chris Heise joins us next from Maryland Bank of America Private Bank. ["The Daily Show"]

Stocks are pacing for their worst months since September 2022. One key question now, whether the correction has run its course. Let's bring in Chris Heisey of Maryland Bank of America Private Bank for some answers. Good to see you. You too, Scott. That's the key question. What's the answer? I think so. Has it run its course?

Yeah, I think it's run its course. You know, everyone's been saying there's no V-shaped recovery here. It's probably a jagged V. Bottoming processes are underway. But here's what we think is the topper, which is sentiment is so poor right now. And at the same time, you're seeing no new lows from the previous lows on a 52-week basis. Credit spreads tame. You've talked a lot about that.

The puzzle just is not there to suggest that things are going to get worse. Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty, a lot of bearishness. There's a lot of capex on their hands at this point. But what no one is talking about is the potential positive surprises that are out there, like earnings season.

So you actually think earnings are gonna be good and you think the guidance is gonna be good? No, I think the bearishness is so poor that it's expecting that. And I think that any positive signs that says, you know what, we're not seeing that much further guidance lower, we're just seeing some stability. And yes, we know what's coming down the pike

and leadership changes are going on at the same time. So if you get a leadership change change which is happening, it's been happening for months, and you get all this bearishness, what happens next? You see these possible green shoots that occur and it catches the market by surprise. We've seen this time and time again, especially in March. You know who's not talking about the good? The administration. They're not talking about the good. What's the good? Deregulation and tax cuts. That's why the market can't see through this fog and get to the other side to start feeling

jazzed up about what is allegedly coming down the road. Yeah, I think that's a good word. It's fog. Fog is out there. It's probably extended a little bit more than people want to into the summer months. But markets don't wait for that. They're going to start discounting things in the back half of the year in the next month or so.

And that could be deregulation. It could be other surprises in the extension of the tax cuts that we just don't talk about right now. And then ultimately what happens next year? I know we're getting ahead of ourselves yet, but that's the real productivity enhancement is next year, not this year.

There's still a lot of rules to be understood yet, but the markets are discounting, you know, all the bad right now. And they're extrapolating it out. And the consumer, this is where it gets interesting. Everybody extrapolates the bad news and all of a sudden says, well, the consumer is going to start to see that and the soft is going to go into hard data. Things are muddy right now, but the consumer is resilient and we expect that to continue. Why? Jobs. It's all about jobs. We don't see anything out there that suggests jobs are going to all of a sudden in the next six months just create the non growth out there that everyone is expecting. What happens if you have a bad number on Friday? I think it will ultimately be more noise and it'll continue this momentum to the downside so that's why we expect this

like sawtooth bottom not necessarily what we've been coming accustomed to which is this V-shaped recovery. Okay so it's in a sense it's so bad it's good right people are too negative what would you buy now if you were trying to look out through this fog? So if you're an investor that generally speaking is usually fully invested and you've got cash coming in, we'd be buying on weakness right now. You want broad market exposure? Look at the equal weighted S&P

to add to what you already own. If you're looking at sectors, financials oversold, consumer discretionary the worst quarter in a really long time, oversold. For a reason. For absolutely for a reason but that's what gives you the bargains to buy into a sector that should actually show you that things are going to be stable. So by equal weight does that mean you don't think tech is going to lead from here? That's a great question. Tech is splitting. Price to growth has come down to attractive levels for some of tech. That should be more in the software. Cybersecurity area

of tech should be the new leaders over the next few years. It's kind of been taking a backseat to the infrastructure and of artificial intelligence. So instead of all tech, it's now splitting and you'll see some leadership in tech, but not completely across the sector. But you don't think that the mega caps are going to be the leadership stocks. These other areas within tech are going to do that. I think some of the mega cap areas that have corrected to levels that if you're not looking

at the next year, but the next two or three years on a price to growth basis, they are now there. We say attractive again, you'll see the bottom fishers in there. And you know that Scott, if you're a core growth manager, you have that as your garden. If you're a value manager, you have a little bit as your garden. If you're a total return manager, you have all of it. So we think that ultimately you've opened up to who the investor is again on that sector. All right.

Good to catch up with you. Thanks for being here. It's Chris Heise. Up next, we track the biggest movers as we head into the close today. Christina Partzanevalos is standing by with that. Tell us what you see. Well, Scott, we see a major financial merger gains momentum as Justice Department concerns seem to fade and markets tumble for a leading vaccine after a top FDA regulator resigns.

Details next. designs details. We're about 15 from the bell back to Christina for the stocks that she is watching. What do you see? Shares of Discover and Capital One. They're jumping right now in a report that the Justice Department may consider allowing Capital One's plan $35 billion purchase of Discover as the DOJ may not be able to block the deal based on issues with subprime lenders. And that's why you're seeing shares of Discover, as the DOJ may not be able to block the deal based on issues with subprime lenders. And that's why you're seeing shares of Discover up almost 8%, Capital One over 3% right now. Shares of Moderna though plunging about 7% less. I checked after a key food and drug

administration official resigned on Friday. Peter Marks, the FDA's top vaccine regulator, stepping down in protest of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy jr.'s views on immunization. Immunization. His departure raising fresh fears on whether President Trump's administration will be able to quickly approve critical shots and that's why shares are down seven and a half percent. Christina thank you. Christina Partzanevile is still ahead. We drill down on some big moves in the energy space today as we wrap up this quarter we're back on the bill right after this We're now in the closing bell market zone.

CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus oil and energy big winners this month. Pippa Stevens with those details. And Courtney Reagan looking ahead to PBH earnings out in OT today. Mike, good price action today. I mean, interesting day from start to finish. Pretty good.

Yeah, obviously the market had to go probe those lows. It was too close not to try it. A lot of the things you want to see line up to say that this was a relatively successful tactical retest and a buy opportunity are in place. As Chris Varone was saying, I totally agree all day. I've been looking for less selling intensity, lower volatility on this move. You don't have a lot of stress incrementally

in corporate credit. I do wanna mention that this tape has been very cutesy a couple of times when it seemed like the perfect setup. We got to exactly a 10% pullback on March 13th and it started to rip. That was right before the late March strong seasonal period was supposed to start. Then even last week, the S&P 500 came back and it just closed the gap from the previous Friday. Everybody said, aha, that's the one.

And today you have this other pretty textbook retest and it's working. It's also the last day of the quarter. There's massive, massive buying on the close. Window dressing. From rebalancing effects. A lot of these funds that just wanna essentially kind of asset allocate according to what's worked

and what hasn't. All that being said, we've been marinating in bad news for a while. We've been sort of clenched up in fear about the tariff details, about a growth scare, about whether the Fed is trapped. And so some of that is having an effect. And so we're responding to negative sentiment

and oversold conditions, at least for now. All right, Pippa, tell us about oil energy. We know that the sector has done quite well. Give us some more details, if you would. That's right Scott. So energy is the only sector in the green this month and the top sector so far this year as investors look for inflation hedges

and rotate out of some of those high flying tech names. Energy stocks are now substantially outperforming oil itself which is flat on the year, which as Evercore ISI noted could give fundamentally minded investors pause and drive some questioning of the sustainability of the rally. Also, Citi downgraded the sector to market weight today, saying they don't have conviction the relative return momentum can persist alongside their unfavorable view for commodity prices.

But looking forward, one area to keep an eye on is the Nat gas exposed names. Since gas is relatively better positioned here than oil, Ontario Expand Energy, EQT, and Range Resources are all up double digits so far this year. Scott? Bipa, thank you very much. Let's talk PVH. Earnings coming over time. Courtney Reagan?

Yes, Scott. You know, PVH shares have well underperformed. The XRT retail ETF down about 39% year to date versus down 13%. Analysts expect the parent of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein will post earnings of about $3.21, excuse me, a penny above the company's guidance range on revenues of $2.33 billion or 6.3% decline year over year. Now, PVH has made headlines as it's kind of gotten caught in the crosshairs of this trade war with China. The company was placed on China's quote, unreliable entity list along with Illumina in February. Investors want an update on what that means

exactly for its business in China, which made up 6% of sales at the end of 2024 and 16% of EBIT, according to the company. CEO Stephen Larson hasn't yet been able to juice up sales of those main brands, Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. So despite the 90s trends and all those brands that are seemingly resonating with younger consumers, that has seemed to help the gap and Levi potentially along with some of its own strategies. Now, PVH's results do come after a dismal month for consumer stocks in general. The discretionary sector down 9% in March and set to close out its worst month since December of 2022.

Courtney, thank you. Courtney, Reagan, two minute warning. You obviously heard the sound effect. I feel like tomorrow kind of could go one of two ways. Extremely volatile based on news coming out or headlines or speculation coming out of the White House or just a total settle in and wait for the event on Wednesday. Yeah, it could be just basically a pause and let's try to figure out if anybody

tries to make some short term opportunistic move based on a headline tomorrow. Everyone says and it's true that April is typically a strong month. It does start tomorrow. We haven't really been sticking with the seasonal patterns for a while. If you go back and remember December was down, January was supposed to be flat. It was up last half of March was supposed to be strong. It was terrible. So I do think you have to or at least it was kind of a bad round trip. The fact that the NASDAQ 100 rallied intraday like two and a half, three percent, maybe finally the Megas have gotten washed out to a degree where you don't have to make a new call

that says, okay, they're gonna actually resume their big exuberant uptrend and the AI trade is gonna go full bore. It's much more about, let's get it out of the trough for a while, see if they can participate, relieve some of the oversold conditions, and then we see what we get on Tuesday. I don't think it's gonna be kind of an all clear moment

based on the news flow, but it's probably gonna be less uncertain than it is right now. We'll at least know something incrementally into that. And then once we fill in some of the macro data points, get jolts tomorrow, find out about jobs. On market seems like it's okay at this level. It's not completely rushing lowering yield and saying the Fed is desperately got to move, but it's

also not really caring too much about inflationary pressure. We will see, certainly, what the next 48 hours hold. We'll pick this story up tomorrow, as always. We look forward to it. Have a great evening. Into overtime with Morgan & Garner. more than he's done.