Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Wrapping Up Wall Street’s Volatile Week 3/6/26

Episode Date: March 6, 2026

Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni, Humilis Investment’s Brian Belski and NewEdge Wealth’s Cameron Dawson tell us what they’re forecasting for the market as we end a rough week. Plus, star analyst Matt Boss tells us his top picks in the retail space. And, Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School tells us why he is very cautious on the market right now. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Guys, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bill. I'm Scott Wagner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker break hour begins with a market on edge. Stock's under pressure, not quite as bad as they were, but nonetheless, red across the board. There's the look with the last stretch of trading now beginning. We could have an expected employment report. It gave the market a gut punch right from the beginning, along with that big jump and crude that Kelly and Brian were talking about. Stock started careening pretty early. Look at that. There's crude. Up almost 13 percent. We are above 9. $91 a barrel. We're watching far and wide. The banks as well. They've not traded well. Restaurant names, you might expect gas prices are up. Restaurant stocks go down. That's just the way it

works. And they are mostly there as well. Same two with the airlines. Fuel prices higher. It's been a bad group all week. American Airlines down 5% of VIX spiking today. So it's an unsettling picture just about everywhere you look. There's a 12% move in the VIX, but more substantially, It's at 26. Let's begin, as we have been for most of this week in Washington with our very own, Eamon Javvers. He has the very latest for us on what the administration is now saying about this war. Amen? Scott, that's right.

We believe that at this hour, the president and the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, are meeting behind closed doors with defense sector executives. That meeting was scheduled to begin at 2.30 at the White House. And we have a list here of the defense companies that were invited, including Lockheed Martin, RTHRUMMIN, R-TX, Boeing, Honeywell, and L3 Harris, all expected to be in the room for this meeting. We don't have an official agenda here, but the White House says this meeting was scheduled weeks ago. So that is, before the war in Iran, the president has voiced a number of concerns over the past couple of months about the speed and volume of American defense production.

He believes that defense CEOs are paid too much and they don't produce enough and they don't produce it fast enough. So that is the expected message to these defense CEOs, Scott, in this meeting today. But if we can get any sense after the meeting breaks up of what has occurred, we will certainly bring it to you. The White House says that the United States certainly has enough munitions now to proceed with the war in Iran. This is not, they say, about any concern about depleted reserves in the short term, Scott. Amen, thanks so much. Keep us up to date.

I know you will. It's Amon Javras in Washington, Force. More now on that move and crew today. Pippa Stevens is following it as she always does. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Scott, WTI, seeing its best week since the contract's inception in 1983, jumping 36% with no indication of when ships will be able to transit the strait of Hormuz again. Some 17 billion worth of oil, LNG, and petroleum products now stuck in the Arabian Gulf, according to Kepler, with the administration announcing last hour a 20 billion reinsurance program for tankers transiting the strait.

J.P. Morgan saying the total amount needed is more like $352 billion. Now, TDC's Brent hitting 100 next week if no progress is made with a potentially violent repricing higher, the longer this continues. Heating oil, which is a proxy for diesel, seeing its best week on record up 36 percent. That is lifting refining stocks with Marathon Petroleum and Valero up double digits on the week. The energy sector overall, the top S&P group, up better than 1% for the week. Scott? Thank you, Pippa Stevens. The market's also smarting today over that much weaker than expected jobs report. Our senior economics correspondent, Steve Leesman, joins us now with what it means for the economy and especially now the Fed, and it may get a little more tricky from here,

Steve. Yeah, another layer of complexity. Scott renewed concern about a weak job market pairing today with worries about what higher all prices mean for jobs, growth, and the Fed. Even before the current attack on Iran, the job market has clearly been. been teetering. You can see that here, Scott, including today's revisions. There has been an actual loss of jobs over the past six months, including three months of job losses. San Francisco Federal President Mary Daly telling CNBC that today's numbers dash hopes that the job market was steadying, but she wants to wait and watch the impact of higher oil prices. It really depends on how long the elevated oil prices continue. If the conflict or the war

settles quickly and the oil disruption that people are worrying about doesn't transpire and doesn't live for a long time, well, then we'd just see those things come back and we'd be back to a normal place. You don't want to act aggressively when you don't actually know that part. After the jobs report, Fed futures priced in an increased chance of rate cuts. You can see there. Scott, July for the first cut was 48. Now it's 67, December the second cut, 43 percent before. Now 60 percent. There's a skittishness to the straits. It's high oil prices will likely give Fed officials pause to cut until it's clear that crude is headed back down.

And they don't spread, by the way, to prices more broadly, Scott. Yeah, you did hear from Stephen Myron, obviously, on this network as well, Steve, who said the Fed doesn't normally react to moves in oil prices because they tend to be so volatile. What's up a lot today can be down a lot tomorrow. It's why we have readings that we follow X food and energy. Well, Stephen Myron went further than the. that Scott. He said it was dovish and it was a reason to cut rates. And the problem, I guess I have with Fed Governor Myron is he looks at every particular economic development and finds a reason

to cut rates. So that's a little unusual. I think more likely what the center of the board will do is say, you know what, let's pause. Let's wait and see what happens here. Let's not cut. Let's not hike. There is a lesson that every central banker learned from the 1970s, Scott, where the Fed cut into an oil price increase, and that ended up creating inflation that took quite a while to put back under control and lost a president, his second term, and other bad things that happened after that, Scott. Yeah, you make good points, as always. Steve thanks, Steve Leesman, our senior economics correspondent.

It's been another tough day for the banks. Many, once again, the stocks are there falling. Leslie Pickard following the money force, as she always does there. Highless. Hey, Scott, yeah, banks continuing marching downward today after a multitude of concerns continue to plague this industry, as you were just talking about today's disappointing employment report, coupled with rising energy prices due to the events in the Middle East, creating a bit of a fog over the current state of the economy. And as you know, bank stocks are often traded in part

as barometers of economic health. And then there are these ongoing concerns about credit, both private and bank syndicated. Those remain in focus. Western Alliance shares, those are plunging about 9% on news of an impairment charge due to Jeffrey's missing a forbearance payment related to first brands. Shares of Jeffries, you can see down nearly 12% slumping also because Western Alliance is suing them for breach of contract. There is also a bit of a spillover effect from some of the recent writedowns that we've seen in the private credit balance sheets, causing a broader question about credit quality,

which again becomes even bigger of a concern if the economy is weakening. I love your reaction, Les before I let you go to what Jeffrey Gundlock has put on social media. quote, if private credit portfolios are performing as well as their sponsors keep reporting they are, why are they limiting or eliminating withdrawals? What is hard about selling well-performing assets? What do you make of that comment? No, it's a great question. I mean, part of it is a bit of a mismatch in terms of timing. It's because these things are illiquid by nature, it's not as easy as you get the redemption request and you make the sale. It can take a little bit of time to kind of sort that through. We saw that with Blue Owl, which received.

all those redemption requests and then halted redemptions in lieu of returning capital, more capital based on those asset sales, but over, you know, an extended period of time and not at the typical kind of quarterly redemption that its investors were used to. So part of this has to do with just the liquidity mismatch. And then part of it has to do with the fact that we've seen a slew of retail investor capital pour into this asset class. There are a lot of negative headlines, a lot of jitters out there. And so we're starting to see that true test of whether people really know the illiquidity that's embedded into some of these funds, you know, whether that education's really there. They didn't. They're learning now and perhaps the hard way, Les, thank you. That's Leslie Picker following that as usual. Now let's bring in our panel. Yardenie research is Ed Yarddenny, Humulus Investments, Brian Belski, New Edge Wealth's.

Cameron Dawson, good to have one and all on the desk on what's been a difficult week, Ed. Absolutely. I think I said you the other day. I mean, you've seen a lot of markets. You've had to make decisions often at times just like this. How has that informed your view on what to do now? Well, it kind of reminds me of 2022. I mean, Russia invaded Ukraine.

And the immediate response in the financial markets was a huge increase in the price of crude oil. And it reversed itself after a few months. But while it was happening, the stock market got spooked. And we saw a bear market, actually, in 2022. but the economy remain resilient. It continued to grow. And I think we're kind of in the same kind of situation, though I think we're more likely to get a correction.

I think we're in the middle of a correction that could take us down 10%. Clearly everything will depend on when are we going to see some tankers going through the strait of our moves. Until we see that, this market's going to continue to be under pressure because the price of oil is going to continue to go higher. Cameron, that's the most important chart to keep an eye on for the next day's weeks. and who knows how longer crude oil? It's all about degree and duration of the jump in crude oil. Because if crude oil quickly reverses,

that's something that is not going to impact U.S. earnings. If it stays high in these levels, that's where you could see the transmission mechanism actually impact earnings. And the reason why 2022 was so weak is because we were cutting GDP estimates and we were cutting EPS estimates. All through the last five months

as markets have been flat, you've actually seen EPS estimates get raised for this market. So a big question going forward is, has there been enough disruption that people start cutting forecasts? Some had already thought that forecasts were too high for the back half anyway. Yeah. I mean, if you look at the estimates for this year, they're at $314 a share. It prices in nearly 200 basis points of margin expansion. But look at $27, $363 a share for 2027 earnings. That is pretty aggressive. And that would mean that we get three years in a row of mid-teens kind of earnings growth. Brian, I kid you at times about your 30 years of experience that you always let us know about, but I want to lean on it now.

Oh, thank you. I want to lean on the experience you have at looking at markets at times like this and how, just like I asked Ed, it informs your own view about what you would advise clients to do. It's an honor to be on with Ed, and we were talking offstage, and we collectively, we've seen markets like this before. And, you know, what we believe is that we're heading into an earnings-driven market, which we said heading into this year, was going to be more volatile. But if I go back and I think of a time like the commercial bank crisis in 1994, when the Fed was at a conundrum, if you remember, are we going to raise, are we going to cut?

And that really ushered in Greenspan's irrational exuberance speech, which ultimately was in 1997, but ushered in Goldilocks in 95 and 96. And so that was a very reactive time. The Fed was in a really, really tough spot. Now, the Fed's in a tough spot here, too, I think, with respect to measuring the dual mandate. In 2022, we saw inflation go up like an elevator and go down like an escalator, and an escalator took too long. So I think in times like this, we've always said for our 30-plus years, whatever, that control what you could control. And what we believe now, and what we're saying to our great clients at Heumelis is that we want to increase the quality tilt in the portfolios.

And the issue is when most people screen for quality, they're going to see technology. But what we're saying is let's screen across all asset classes and take a look at how we're going to run equities. That's why we love dividend growth. We love value strategies. And I think the way that small cap stocks are reacting, even with the 10-year treasury going below 4%, I think small caps going forward are going to be a great place to be. I mean, that's been a brutal trade. Brutal.

This week, the rustles down almost 4%. Why would you even risk trying to swim in a water that's feels a little sharky. It's a great question, but if you take a look at and compare some of the numbers that Cameron was talking about, and you look at the small cap market, then you also look at things like return on equity, return on assets, free cash flow yields, and overall dividends, small caps, we think, are way oversold fundamentally. But I think going forward, you need to own, I think Scott, a little bit of everything, and small caps have to be part of it. The danger here, too, I guess, Ed, in some respects, is that this all is unfolding this war in the Middle East. At a

time where we already had some tricky questions to answer. Are we in the midst of some AI bubble? Is there too much spending by some of the biggest companies in the world on this new technology? Is private credit showing its cracks for maybe the very first time? And now we have the added variable of fuel prices and maybe more inflation than we expected and a derailing of the Fed's road a bit. Well, I think the Fed is really stuck between Iran and Iran. And, and in a hard place, clearly. On the one hand, this surging oil prices is going to show up in inflation pretty quickly. And so lowering interest rates because you're concerned that the economy might weaken when

inflation is picking up is not something the Fed wants to do. So I think they're kind of stuck here. So I don't, you know, the market was and still is looking for rate cuts by the Fed, but I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon given the contradictory. between the risks increasing for inflation and increasing for unemployment. Let's not forget the so-called K-shaped recovery that we have heard from everybody suggests that that's what we're in. You don't want the bottom part of the K to fall completely unable to keep themselves afloat. And this market, nor the economy, can afford for the upper part of the K to get skittish in any way.

That's been a pillar of this bull market. Yeah, and I think it's important to point out as the last three years have benefited from consistently falling oil prices. If you look at gasoline prices on a year-of-year basis, they have been down very consistently, which has been a boost for consumers. So if oil prices go high and stay high, that could hurt the lower-income consumer. And then the high-income consumer, exactly to your point, you have to see the stock market continuing to do well in order for the wealth effect to continue to allow those high-income consumers to spend down savings. and a lot of the growth in consumption has come from dis-saving. So you need both of these things to work, which just suggests that market volatility and higher oil prices

could be a fly in the ointment. We've got reporters working a story that I'm going to read to you next, but let's take a look at shares of Oracle here because right after I suggested, you know, the market already on edge a bit about questions over an AI bubble, there's a Bloomberg headline that says Oracle and OpenAI are ending their plan to expand. and a Texas data center site.

That stock has already obviously been under pressure for what feels like many months that you own it. Yep. The CDS has been a point of concern as it has blown out over the borrowing and the funding of these data center projects. Maybe in some respects, the market is gonna end up viewing this as positive news.

I don't know. What do you take from the headline that I got you? And again, just to remind you, our reporters are making calls on that too. I think so. I mean, I think the market on a near-term basis is reacting to this the right way, because what was the biggest problem handing into this week, Scott, was matching up revenues with matching up expenses in terms of how much we were paying for AI versus how much money we're actually going to be garnering from it in terms of revenue. Why do you have them equal? They're uneven.

Well, that's what I'm saying. I'm trying to do the barbell. So there was a massive mismatch, and that's why these stocks went up. That's number one. Number two, in terms of Oracle's got a massive balance sheet. So there are many questions that we pose as well as the longer-term shareholders of why do you need to go out in the public marketplace to get funding where you have this massive balance sheet. And so that's been really the reason why we've been more worried about it. But I think maybe this is a sign that we're going to see a little bit more consistency, a little bit more humility, let's pull this back in terms of AI spending. I think this is actually a quite positive thing. If that, in fact, happens on a more broad scale, do you think that would be viewed as a positive Cameron in this market? I think it could be viewed as a positive for the heavy spenders because we've seen such a deterioration in the return on invested capital, the spending down their cash and having to turn to bond markets.

However, there's a big portion of this market that has benefited from this massive spend. And it's not just the semiconductor names. There's a lot of names within industrials and materials on this idea that we're getting a big infrastructure buildout. So if you start to see them pull back on some of that CAPEX, there's a lot of names that could be hit pretty hard. Yeah, so we'll watch that one and we'll certainly bring you any updates as we, Get it. The bottom line with you, as I look at your notes, you're not giving up the ship on what you still call your roaring, roaring 20s scenario. I still think it's the roaring in 2020s, but it's been stress tested a number of times

since the beginning of the decade, and yet the economy is at an all-time record high. Stockmark until recently was an all-time record high. The stress test now is it going to turn out to be the depressing 1970s all over again, And I think the analogy of 2022 makes more sense that we get a spike. And it's, once the perception is that oil is flowing through the street, I think you'll see oil prices coming down significantly. And I think it'll be back to looking at the fundamentals of AI and private credit. And I think that's going to be offset by remarkable resilience of the economy and earnings.

What happened? You said, I'm sorry, you said it best earlier that we're up, look at the percentage today. We get a resolution of this conflict. We can be down 30% next week and be sitting here going, okay, now we're back to worrying about other things. What are we going to say? I was going to say, what happens if it becomes more protractive? What happens if the unknown on the other side is just a bunch of chaos that persists for some period of time?

That it hurts sentiment, not only from consumer sentiment but corporates. That's Iran's strategy, isn't it? It's chaos. Drag it out. Drag it out. It's chaos. Create as much chaos. Shooted everybody in the neighborhood

and create some real problems for the financial markets, hoping that that kind of pressure gets everybody on the other side to say, you know, all right, let's try to work out of ceasefire here. But the president says it's, you know, it's unconditional surrender. And I think we're going to show some more firepower there that may actually, look, I think that Iran lost the war. It's just they don't know that. They don't concede that.

They think that they could just do it as a terrorist state, which is what they're good at. And I think the kind of military forces that will continue to pound away at them will force them to relent. Cameron, I'll give me the last word. I mean, the optimism that Ed is still trying to project and believes is still the backbone of this market. Do you think it's too much? Well, I think that there's an assumption that if markets are weak enough that we'll see the taco trade. And that certainly was the case with terrorists, but terrorists were effectively a decision from the White House. Now you have a lot more players involved, which might means that they might want it to stop.

But the question is, have you set off something that could have more duration? Well, this is different, too, than putting on tariffs and taking off tariffs on a whim. I go back to the, you know, the Colin Powell quote. You break it, you own it. And this is a situation that needs to be watched dearly. This will be resolved per ads. And we have to remember, we have the best. companies in the world. We've got the best market in the world. We've got the most liquid mark in the

world. And investors will pay for that performance, period. All right, guys, thanks everybody. Appreciate you. Let's send it now to Christina Partinevlos for a look at the biggest names moving into the clothes today. Hi there. Hi, Scott. Well, let's start with shares of Marvell because they're popping on the back of strong demand visibility just over the next two years for not only their chips, but their connectivity products too. The company's data center revenue surpassing $6 billion. That's a 46% increase from last year. See, shares are up quite a lot, almost 18%. not moving solely on fundamentals alone, but part of a move potentially into the S&P 500. There's rebalancing today.

Index funds would be forced to buy Marvell if it gets added. So traders are trying to front run that demand. So that's why you're seeing shares up higher. Palantir shares also going higher. Up about 16% week to date, higher almost 4% today as the Iran war continues. It's pacing for its best week since April. A Rosenblatt analyst saying the conflict actually could help its government pipeline. And last but not least, Jeffrey Financial shares, those are singing 12% after Western Alliance filed a lawsuit against the firm related to a disputed loan tied to first brands.

Western Alliance led breach of contract and fraud and said it would charge off roughly $126 million loan. All right. Christina, thank you, Christina Parts and Obolos. We're just getting started here. Coming up next, retail is having a very rough week. Obviously, gas prices going up, sentiment around the retail complex going down. The XRT's down nearly 5%. Star analyst, Matt Boss, he's here next. He'll tell us what you should do.

Surging gasoline prices is about the worst thing the nation's retailers need to see right now. For more on what it means, let's welcome in the streets top analyst. Matt Boss, JP Morgan. Welcome back. Thanks for having me, Scott. Does I set that up, right? I mean... You set it up perfect.

So what does every move higher in gasoline prices mean for these retailers? So the metric is a 30% increase in gas, which is basically what you've seen in oil so far. It's about a $9 billion headwind to consumer spending. That said, and I think with a really interesting metric, is tax refunds in February are up 10%. That's actually roughly a $9 to $10 billion tailwind. And so in March and April, if this were to continue, those two basically wash each other out. That's the additional tax stimulus.

But that's actually only roughly a third of the one beautiful bill in terms of the potential impact. So at this point, a 30% increase in gas, if it were to follow the roughly 30 to 35% increase in oil, is basically a wash from the tax refunds alone, but you'd still have a net benefit from the bill. Unless I put the tax refund in my bank account because I'm skittish, and I don't go to the mall to spend the money I otherwise might because of the gas move price. Absolutely. I mean, the gas price. Absolutely fair point.

I think then the question becomes what base are we on? So you and I've talked about this before. four to five percent spending over holiday. That was the best holiday in six years. What's interesting to me is the base where we're at today, you saw acceleration in consumer spending in the month of January. It was up six percent X the storm, and it's holding up six percent in February. Some of these retailers so far in the last couple weeks, I mean, these numbers that they're talking about for the month of February, Ross stores up double digits, TJX, up high, single to low double digits, Victoria's Secret, I think, is up close to 20 percent. These are staggered. numbers and it's because this baseline of spending coming out of holiday, the two-year stack continues into the early part of the of this quarter. You don't even have the tax stimulus to be potentially offset. So I think it was a strong consumer baseline. Yeah, I mean, it's hard when you already have what I was discussing with my panel earlier, this K-shaped recovery. Yep. And now you have headlines which make people nervous and then the actual fundamentals

of prices going up. Yeah. So you're right. The question is the extent of the extent of the conflict and does it create a potential pause? I think the playbook would be consistency, value, I think takes a notch up. Value and convenience has been our playbook. I still think the question would be where does the consumer go? They seek out off price, dollar stores, discounters. And I think on that case-shaped economy, look, the reality of what we're seeing, the low-income consumer has a job. I don't think it's a job that it's at fear or risk from AI, not in 26 and maybe not in 27, meaning I think that's your policemen, your firemen, your bartender.

I think so that job picture for me still stable. The middle income has been seeking value. I heard you before make the point about the higher income. It's very fair. If we continue to see the volatility in the stock market, the R squared is high for that consumer, and that may be something to watch. It sounds the bottom line. You like the stocks that you've liked.

I mean, the discount retailers are sort of the swing. sweet spot of what you've been focused on anyway in the conversations that we've had, right? Yeah, so we've been talking about the concentrating consumer, and I think it's the same thing with stock selection, meaning you're really seeing a bifurcation between the winners and the losers. And as I said, I think what you're going to get, whether the stimulus ends up being a net benefit or if it's offset, I think if the consumer needs value more, they're going to look for a TJX, a Ross stores, a Burlington, a dollar general, a dollar tree. And I think the flip side of it is, if they have the dollars, they're going to go for the best

class brands and the ones that have been winning, in my opinion, separate from the pack. That's the coach brand. That's Ralph Lauren. That's Amher Sports with Arcterics and Solomon. Let's take a look at shares of Gap because there's a lot of discussion about those today after after their earnings. Weather impact? Yeah. Store closure impact. What's the real story? Penny miss on the quarter, one to two percent revenue guide for the first quarter. So on a relative basis, the magnitude of growth, now look, you have to back out. There's a credit card adjustment. They're really guiding two and a half to three and a half percent in terms of growth in the first quarter. They historically have an under promise over deliver. The gap is

actually printing 7 percent same store sales on a regular basis. But the portfolio is mixed. Athleta brand is still down. Old Navy's running low single digit. The gap is up high single digits. So right now, as I was pointing to before, this spread between the winners and the losers, the retail investor has the opportunity to buy best in class. Now you have the opportunity. Now you have the opportunity to buy best in class at a discount. What Nike still overweight, which was, I guess, a more recent move. How do you feel about it today? So I think the numbers that Nike has out there, the consensus numbers, I think, are now a floor. The question is getting now the numbers and letting the E drive the story. They're actually attending our retail conference in two weeks. It'll be

the first meetings with CEO Elliott. And they are now laying out an analyst day for the fall where I think it'll be a positive to now lay out after an 18-month hiatus in terms of long-term targets. So I do think that they clearly have more visibility on the North America business, and I think that they are in the process of ring fencing China. All right, good stuff. Matt, thanks. Appreciate it. That's Matt Boss right here post nine. Still ahead. Another volatile day on the street. As you know, stocks are lower as we head into the bills. We are off the worst levels. Dow's still down about 500, but Professor Jeremy Siegel, he's standing by with his thoughts next. We're back with more on that Oracle story.

We were telling you about a few moments ago. Sima Modi is here with an update. Hi, Sima. Hey, Scott, I just got off the phone with a source familiar with the matter who shares that Oracle's Mega Data Center project with OpenAI in Abilene, remains on track with eight sites being built. There were conversations about doing more than the eight sites in Abilene, but that is not in the cards right now. However, that does not mean the existing plans to build those eight sites and that Mega Data Center project has been impacted. In fact, the source shares to me that these projects are.

on time, no delays, but given how dependent Oracle is, Scott, on Open AA, of course, the market is very sensitive to anything that revolves around this growing partnership. Yeah, well, your reporting is moving to stock, which is coming back towards positive territory. Seema, thanks for that. Appreciate that. That's Sima Modi. Stocks are off their worst levels, as I've been telling you, we're still poised for a down day, to say the least. Let's bring in the Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School, Professor of Finance. It's good to see you. you, Professor. Welcome. Welcome, Scott. So you've had a chance to absorb a week, right? We've had a week.

Yeah. What do you take from it? I'm very cautious. I say if we don't get some breakthrough over the weekend, I think we'll see a hundred-hour oil next week. And remember, it began the year under 60. I mean, that would be a, if we do get that, that's a 70% increase in price. And that will set, I mean, I think gasoline is set to soar in any case. So, you know, I think there are headwinds. Now, your other guests thought that the tax refund might offset them, but I think that the oil shock actually could be bigger than what we get on the refunds, which were well advertised, and some people have probably already maybe spent their extra money.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction in the market. You know, we haven't had one for a long time. And, I mean, that would be, we're not even in the pullback zone yet, which is, you know, 5 to 10%. Correction is 10 and more. I don't think any bear market is coming. And by the way, I mean, if we get a breakthrough, we would get a coiled market spring upward. But trends look like this is going to drag on a lot longer than I. and the administration I'd hoped.

Oil matters more than everything else. That's what I hear you saying, correct? Yeah. In the short run here, oil does matter more than anything else. You know, the price of gasoline is probably the most visible price of any price in the consumer, a basket. You know, we're in a midterm year. Politician is going to make an awful lot of it one way or the other. You know, I mean, the Democrats themselves didn't like this war.

They're going to blame the high price on gasoline on Trump. So there's going to be a lot of fighting back and forth on this issue. And, you know, it's from what I, I've talked to some oil experts, and the shutdowns, you know, what is going on in the Gulf, what is going around the world in terms of shipping, it's, it cannot be fixed. It's going to have some lasting effects, at least in the near term on the economy. In the long term, I'm as bullish as ever, so don't believe that. But I do think that what I see short term does worry me. But outside of oil, what inside the market is most concerning to you? What group?

Is it the banks? Is it the private credit-related names? Which ones? Well, no, I'm bullish on everything. I mean, I actually was a little puzzled about the jobless number that we got today, the jobs number. You know, if you take every short-term labor indicator, the jobless claims, a challenger, layoff reports, the ADP weekly reports that we get, all those, and the ISM reports, even on employment. They didn't show a big decline.

I mean, HACS had said, maybe we should just take the three-week average. But I think one thing is really interesting, and I think very positive, and that is GDP estimates have not really gone down. Now, I know Atlanta just lowered there's a little bit this afternoon. Goldman Sachs is still over 3% for the first quarter. Now, think about that with a job loss. and still having over 3% GDP, what does that mean? That means productivity is really exploding.

And that's ultimately good for real wages, good for the economy. And we saw the trend in those last two quarters. It would continue. I think if this war gets resolved, boom, we're going to get on. But if it drags on, the visibility on oil prices is going to be a drag. But if I asked you, you know, I said, hey, what about the banks traded poorly? What about private credit? Big concerns there?

And you said, I'm bullish on everything. Neither of those things concern you at all? Well, you know, the private credit, if you take it the marketable, the spreads on the marketable bonds that are investment grade versus non-investment grade, they have come up a little bit, but not very much. And, you know, this whole thing about private credit, and they enter an agreement saying you can take 5% off and then when you want to take more, you know, everyone panics. Hey, that's what a long-term illiquid investment is supposed to be. Now, that being said, I do believe that the space got overcrowded and I'm not, would not

be surprised to see some investors in that space taking some big losses. But the only way the banks are going to be taking big losses is if we have a recession. And, you know, could you say these higher oil prices could bring about that? Given that we have virtual energy independence, it's a very different story than the 70s and the 80. So, yeah, slow down, no recession. That's what the bank loans and the bank portfolios are. I mean, we see really no other slides in the assets, not a mortgage, crazy mortgage situation like we had before, the great financial crisis or anything like that. The balance sheets of banks, I think,

look still very, very good. Banks have come off their worst levels of the day. It's helped the overall market. Professor, always appreciate your insights. I know we'll talk again soon. That's Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School. Up next, we track the biggest movers into this close, and we do that with Christina Parts of Nevelas. Hi there. Hi, we have one financial giant blocking investors from pulling their money, why that's rattling the credit markets. We discussed next. All right, we're about 10 from the bell. Back to Christina now for this. she's watching. Tell us. Let's start with fertilizer stocks because they are rallying as those

companies are likely to benefit from tight supplies and higher prices, of course, due to the war in Iran. More than a third of raw materials actually used in fertilizer travel through the Strait of Hormuz, and that's why you're seeing names like CF Industries hitting a fresh 52-week high and pays for a record close, up 4% nutrient up to almost two and a half. And shares of Sam Sara soaring today up almost 20% after issuing strong full-year guidance. This is a software company that connects physical operations like construction and freight and has struggled. Like many other software names this year, it's still down about 17% year-to-date before, or as of yesterday's clothes, I should say, but you can see really getting a bit up right now.

Scott. All right, Christina, thank you. Christina Parts de Nevelos. Coming up next, Capital Planning's Malcolm Etheridge. He tells us what is going to happen in this market next week. All right, we're now in the closing bell market zone, Mike Santoli, and Capital Area Planning's Malcolm Etheridge here to Brayette. down these crucial moments of this trading day.

Phil the both tracking the airlines for us, which about a week of their own, and we'll get to that in a moment. But Michael, I'll go to you first on your thoughts as we wrap this up. Yeah, it's obviously uncomfortable. I don't think there's a lot of high conviction, but you really have to say down 2% plus for the S&P

this week represents kind of a grudging decline, trying to make Tuesday's low count. We've bounced off that this morning. And I just think that, you know, generally investors broadly are really remaining open to the idea that this does not drag on for very long. We don't have to reprice according to $92 crude oil. So we'll see if that bet pays off.

I get it. I understand why you wouldn't want to flee. I think we're benefiting from the fact that the S&P came into this period at levels we were at months ago and with sentiment somewhat subdued. So we didn't have to necessarily drain away a lot of excess optimism this week. Give us a little bit of a taste of what's coming up in a few minutes on overtime. Well, we are going to have Moody's head of. private credit analysis to try and really get into whether there's underlying concern here or just

sort of headline risk in that area. And then, of course, try to surround what might go on next week, including Oracle's numbers and that Oracle news that you were breaking down just a little bit earlier. All right, good stuff. We'll look for you and Mel in just a few. That's Mike Santoli. All right, Phil, like said, it's been a week for these airlines, and they're watching the price of crude and jet fuel and all of that. How high and for how long, Scott? That's the question right now for airline investors. You know, originally many people thought, look, if it's a spike and it's only a few days,

well, that's fine. The airline stocks can write it out. Now people are starting to say, okay, how much will it impact the first quarter? How much will it impact the second quarter? Are we looking at a threat to the full year earnings per share estimates? That's why you see these stocks down anywhere between 3% and 6%. It's the same story, different day, as long as this conflict, A conflict continues. This is the pressure you're going to see here. Look at this says it all right here, Scott. Jet fuel prices have doubled in the last year. Year to date, jet fuel, the price of a gallon has doubled. And any way you slice it, that's going to have an impact on the bottom line for the airlines.

And Deutsche Bank out today, Scott, said the impact, depending on the carrier, could be as low as 14% for Delta for full year EPS impact. That's their estimate. Or it could be as much as over 115, 116%. for somebody like a frontier. Again, that's an estimate from Deutsche Bank. Bottom line is this, Scott, nobody's quite sure how long this lasts and what the impact will be. But increasingly, you will hear CEOs say, yeah, Q1 is going to be impacted, Q2 is likely to be impacted as long as this stretches out. All I appreciate that look. Phil, thank you. That's Phil LeBoe. All right, Malcolm, give me your thoughts on these markets before I ask you about some spaces specifically within them. Yeah, I think Phil's point about the oil price shocks on top of today's jobs report, surprising investors a little bit, making folks who are already skittish

coming into this week just that much more fearful. I think that on top of everything else we are worried about, private credit, the hyperscale are spending too much, whether AI was going to eliminate certain sectors altogether, all of those things taken together tell me that we're probably not out of this selloff. It probably rolls over into next week. If you look at what happened to the semis, that was kind of our port in the storm, if you will. I think that we probably are going to see some increased selling pressure going into next week as it becomes more apparent that we really don't know how much longer this hot war is going to roll on. Feels worse than 2% on the S&P, doesn't it?

I mean, that says everything about just the news flow, but also the resiliency of this market, which is staying intact in most places. Yeah, it's staying intact in most places, and it's also a little bit surprising and encouraging the fact that software has been as strong as it has. this week compared to all of the other sectors in the way that they've been rolling over. So I am looking for opportunities to your point to be investing because I don't think that the market really is losing its strength from a fundamental perspective, but just sentiment-related selling, I think, is what's taking us out right now.

Man, you've been one of the few, to be quite honest, that have tried to take a more sanguine view on what's happening in software. You've come on the programs that I do and said, I'm a buyer. You've added to some names on this weakness. That takes guts. It's taken courage. Do you think those names are washed out? Yeah, I appreciate you saying it.

I don't think it's too late for that trade. I think that investors, we've been having conversations with clients all week. We're in the middle of client review time. And people are asking, okay, is it too late then for me to be buying some of those software names that you have been saying? This is your opportunity to be getting in for basement prices. I think that it's not too early if you consider that since October, the October highs, a lot of these stocks have sold off 30, 40, 50 percent coming into this week. And so there's still plenty of opportunity.

It's reminding me of the Peter Lynch adage that more money has been lost in anticipation of a correction or in fear of a correction and has actually been lost in the correction itself. This is one of those moments where investors should be taking action, looking at things like the net retention numbers for certain software stocks. Look at CrowdStrike, for example. It's been incrementally increasing over the last few quarters. They just reported 115% net retention number. They're still growing.

Big week in cyber, certainly. A nice rebound there, too. Malcolm, I appreciate your thoughts. Have a good weekend. I know we'll talk to you next week. You hear the clapping. They're going to ring the bell. We'll ring it off of the lows.

There's no question about that. We'll still go down, though, with a near 500 point decline on the Dow. But it almost feels like we've got to look at crude oil from here forward every day to see you. maybe where this market's going to go. I will see you on the other side of the weekend and overtime.