Closing Bell - Earnings Parade Rolls On With Palantir, Hims & Hers, Lattice, Axon and More 8/4/25

Episode Date: August 4, 2025

Market discussion with insight from JP Morgan’s David Kelly and Bahnsen Group’s David Bahnsen. Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman weigh in on rates and labor. Palantir earnings take center stage with analyst Brent Bracelin and exclusive insights from CEO Alex Karp. Other earnings: Hims & Hers, Lattice, Simon Property, and Vertex Pharma. Plus: A look ahead to key earnings from AMD, Disney, and McDonald’s, and final thoughts on Elon Musk’s pay package.

Well that's the end of regulation. W&T Offshore ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. The metals company doing the honors of the Nasdaq stopped rebounding following Friday's big sell-off as investors look past the jobs report and look ahead to some big earnings this week. The major averages posting their best day since May 27th. And communication services, tech and utilities were your S&P sector leaders. Energy was the only sector to close lower. Meta and Alphabet giving communication services a boost today. Commodity is mostly firmer across the board.

Silver's seeing a gain of more than 1%. Copper rebounding after posting its worst week since inception back in 1988. On the flip side though, crude falling after OPEC Plus agreed to another big increase in production that starts next month. Well, that's a scorecard on Wall Street, but winners stay late. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime.

I'm John Fort alongside Morgan Brennan. Coming up on today's show, another big day of earnings headline by Palantir and we'll also be watching for big news and big moves from other names including Kim's and hers and Latticemi. But let's start with the markets and the bounce back from Friday's sell off, the NASDAQ adding watching for big news and big moves from other names including Kim's and hers and Lattice Semi. But let's start with the markets and the bounce back from Friday's sell off, the NASDAQ adding nearly 2%. Games from Nvidia and Meta helping to lead the way.

Christina Parts-Nebulous is at the NASDAQ with more. Christina. Yeah, well I'll start with the Dow surging almost 600 points today recovering all of Friday's losses. You mentioned the NASDAQ closed up nearly 2% as investors really rotated back into technology and growth. There's been just a renewed wave of dip buying with traders really sifting through solid earnings

mid bets that the Federal Reserve is gonna soon cut rates. Tech, mega caps, Microsoft, which really bore the brunt of recent selling led some of today's bounce. You can see up 2%, Meta up 3.5. One standout, you'd mentioned Palantir hitting a record high ahead of its earnings report out any minute, up 4%. And then Semiconductor names,

really making some dramatic swings today. On Semi was the worst S&P 500 performer, closing down almost 16%. The company is really heavily exposed to electric vehicles. They projected only modest growth starting in September quarter, and it just simply wasn't enough for investors. On the flip side though, monolithic power systems really gained ground after

Citigroup raised its price target to $825 from 785. The stock is trading at 830 right now, closing almost 6% higher today. The analog chip maker really specializes in power and is benefiting from the AI infrastructure build out. Lastly, since is benefiting from the AI infrastructure buildout. Lastly, since we're talking about AI infrastructure, you have some suppliers like Arista Networks and Broadcom closing higher today following Meta and Microsoft's substantial CapEx spending commitments. Risk on.

Guys, morning. All right, Christina Parton-Nevelis, thank you. Now to the bond market where we didn't see a bounce after huge declines on Friday. The two-year fell 25 basis points on Friday. It was lower again once again today. That's the yields. Rick Santelli is in Chicago and he has more for us. Hi, Rick.

Hi, indeed. If you look at a one-week chart of twos, you can see exactly what we're talking about. Big drop obviously on Friday, big revision, negative revision, but mostly sideways today hovering very near Unchanged and if you look at further down the curve to a 10-year look at the right side how compressed it is I find that very interesting the markets at an equilibrium with stocks on the rise after that downbeat report There's a lot going on on the yield curve if you look at Tuesday's tens in the context of Friday It's steeped rather dramatically from around 41 basis points to 54 base points It's eased back just a little bit But what's interesting is when curves steepen and when debt is a big deal a lot of things happen you get term premium

Expansion meaning the distance between maturities gets wider and the longest duration The 30-year bond the whippiest on the yield curve demands more yield Well, let's look at the knob spread 30 or yields minus 10 year yields and it happens to be the widest in four Years, so we want to pay attention to that and that's normally actually a bullish sign for the economy But it's definitely a sign for more steepening and finally the dollar index You know it was really starting to put together a string of updates and Fridays You see they're really took it all away at current pace We're on pace to close it at one week low in that dollar index John back to you

All right, Rick Santelli, thank you. Well, earnings season is showing us whether economic uncertainty is having an impact on companies and consumers, but do the results reflect what the recent macro data is signaling? Let's bring in JP Morgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, David Kelly,

and Bonson Group Chief Investment Officer, David Bonson. David's welcome, David Bonson, Palantir, we're gonna get the results pretty darn soon. You argue it's run too far, but does this market need names like Palantir to defy gravity if the market's gonna keep going higher? Well, the thing is is that we've had precedence of both in the past.

We've seen the situations where the markets rotate and they don't fully drop, you just get a leadership change. I grew up at that moment in 2000 when we did not see, even as the NASDAQ fell precipitously, all markets drop. Large Cap Value, more Dow-like names

actually did very well. There's other precedents where, yes, those leadership names kind of self-correcting and reverting to the mean in terms of valuation could bring the whole market down. So the Palantir's and Nvidia's of the market is the whole S&P reliant on them. I'm not sure that the the juries come back yet. I think that verdict is going to be very important. Okay well speaking of we have Palantir earnings those are out. It's a beat in a raise. EPS of 16 cents adjusted that was two cents better than estimates. Revenue of a billion bucks. Also a big beat. First time you've seen quarterly revenue that has hit a billion dollars. U.S. revenue that's up 68% year over year. U.S. commercial, this is a key metric, growing 93% year over year. 20% quarter over quarter to 306 million dollars. U.S. government was up 53 percent year over year, 14 percent consecutively, 426 million was the number there. Palantir sees Q3 revenue of 1.083

billion to 1.087 billion. That is well above expectations. Full year revenue also hiked to 4.14 billion to 4.15 billion. That was the range there that is way above prior guidance. Also raising adjusted operating income, free cash flow guidance for the year. CEO and co-founder to 4.15 billion, that was the range there, that is way above prior guidance. Also raising adjusted operating income, free cash flow guidance for the year. CEO and co-founder Alex Karp saying, just tell the haters, read them and weep. Karp telling me with some notable exceptions

of some big international clients that, this is an America story, it's everywhere in America, we're going faster than we are even able to grow, like we're going to have to start turning away people. We are now very focused on people who are partners that are willing to learn from us and then ramping them up very quickly. Palantir posting a rule of 40 score of,

get this 94% for Q2. That's, that's, higher is better. This is basically an unheard of metric. Carp telling me the plan is to grow revenue 10x over the next five years and to do so while decreasing the number of people that are working at Palantir from 4,100 down to 3,600, though they are not planning to reduce that head count with any kind of layoffs.

Carp also telling me he's looking to engage with the unions as reindustrialization means an opportunity to teach people through AI to work in complex engineering environments. He's making the case that it creates, quote, untapped leverage and that blue collar workers' salaries education means an opportunity to teach people through AI to work in complex engineering environments. He's making the case that it creates quote untapped leverage and that blue collar workers salaries should go up as a result of this sort of wading into the workforce restructuring debate we've been having as AI takes root in the economy.

You can see shares of pounds here on this beat and raise though jumping up about three and a half percent right now, John, And this is a stock that you can debate valuation is up 550% over the past 12 months, hit a new record high today. And as you can see, these numbers sending it higher right now in overtime. It's hard to debate when it's moving like this after it was already up and at all time highs.

I mean, David Bonson was just talking about it, but like Carp said, read them and weep, I guess, or read them and cheer if you're holding it. Oh, David Kelly, moving on, do earnings, Palantir aside, Palantir included, take on a different level of importance for the markets after last week's jobs data and revisions or no? Yeah, I do think they're important because really, you know, the jobs numbers, it's just one report. I think, you know, I obviously I don't believe the BLS were manipulating the numbers in any

way. They never have. But it's not that accurate. And I think it maybe overstates the weakness in the economy. If you look at light vehicle sales in July, we've just got those numbers, 16.4 million units. There's nothing wrong with that. It looks like domestic airline travel is stabilizing.

So what we've got here is we've got a tortoise of an economy, but it's still a relatively healthy tortoise. It's moving forward. We're gonna have somewhat higher inflation. So it looks to me like the economy is doing okay. And the big thing that's really changed in the last few days is the probability of the Fed cutting in September has gone up. So it looks like we may get our

interest rate cut cake and still be able to eat a fairly healthy economic backdrop. So David, the buying in bonds that we, David Kelly, the buying in bonds that we have seen, does it make sense to you? What is that market signaling here? Well, I think it means lower rates. I mean mean not only have we priced in a rate cut in September but there are now five rate cuts priced in between now and the end of the year so the end of next year so it looks like you know markets are thinking okay the feds going to get down to three percent rate if you've got a short money at three percent then surely that long term rate can come down a little bit and

also we are still talking about a slow economy. We're talking about an economy 1.5% growth. So maybe that does allow for some decline in long-term interest rates. I don't think, the economic fundamentals aren't that exciting, but it doesn't take a lot for this market to get excited. Okay, David Bonson, ahead of today,

two thirds of the S&P had reported Q2 results. Average earnings growth rate standing at 10.3% year over year per fact set. I realize you think Palantir is expensive here. What would you be buying? Well, for us as dividend growth investors, we're always looking to find the highest quality companies at good valuations that are growing dividends, and that's our investment methodology. I think for index investors, what they have to wonder

is whether or not the risk profile of what they own right now is the same as what they bought with 10 companies representing over 40% of the index. Did they mean to sign up for 490 companies becoming almost a minority of the overall positioning? I mean, it's a different risk reward profile. That doesn't mean it drops in a week, and it doesn't mean it drops in a year.

23X might be sustained for a little while. It's just whether or not we are reverting to the mean eventually, I don't think is for debate. It absolutely will happen. It's just a question of when. So we choose to focus on quality all the time, not being good at timing those things ourselves. David Kelly, we've got this slowdown in labor demand and for me there are still questions about

what's happening with inventories ahead of the holiday season, just how much got shipped ahead, how much of that is going to get burned off ahead of and during the season and what does that mean potentially for revenues after depending on how long after takes to come. How closely are you watching that and what kind of an impact do you expect both the labor and inventory pictures to have as we head toward Q4? So we're watching it as carefully as we can although we think there may be some problems the inventory data relative to the import data because it looks like we've had much bigger swings in imports than the inventory data would suggest, which suggests that something's wrong with the way they're counting inventories. Anyway, we do think that over the next few months, inventories will get burnt down because

companies don't want to pay the tariffs. They don't want to be overstocked given that they are a little concerned about what tariff pricing might mean for consumer spending. So I think they'll want to get leaner in inventories and that will be a drag and headline GDP growth. But meanwhile, you mentioned labor demand. The other big issue here is labor supply. And we've seen such a 180 on the impact of immigration on labor supply that, you know, right now we may be in a situation where deportations or self deportations as well as enforced deportations pretty much equal legal immigration to this country. And if you've got net immigration at zero or close to zero, then the working age population

is shrinking. It's shrinking year after year all the way through 2030. And it's very hard to grow the economy if you start with full employment, but you don't really have any available workers, additional workers to put into the markets. Or that I think is what the federal, that's why the feds so focused on the unemployment rate because yeah, maybe the labor demand has come down, but if labor supply is so low,

then maybe there's no point in stoking up the economy. Yeah, some key context there. David Kelly and David Bonson, thank you both for kicking off the hour with us. With all the major averages finishing up, the S&P finishing up almost one and a half percent the Nasdaq almost two percent. Well coming up we have got much more in Palantir's results as that stock rallies on the back of very strong numbers. We're going to speak to an analyst about what he wants to hear from the company on the upcoming conference

call with those shares up about four percent right now. Plus is it AI versus everything else? Mike Santola is going to look at just how big the split has gotten when Overtime is back in two. Welcome back to Overtime. Vertex earnings are out. The stocks lower. Angelica Peebles has the numbers. Angelica.

Hey, John. Well, Vertex beating on the top and bottom line, but the bigger news here is that they're saying that their next generation pain drug, VX993, failed in a phase two trial, and as a result, they are not moving forward with that drug. Remember, pain is becoming an increasingly big area for Vertex, they had a drug approved

just earlier this year, Gernavix. That appears to be getting off to a little bit of a stronger start than we saw last quarter. So we'll want to hear from more more information on how that launch is going on the call. And they're also announcing that their Chief Scientific Officer David Oltschuler will be retiring next year. They're going to go ahead and promote their current head of research to take his job next year when he leaves the company. So much more to listen to on that call, guys. All right, Angelica Peebles, thank you.

With shares of Vertex down 11 percent right now, we're continuing to watch shares of last week's hot IPO, Figma. The stock losing about 27 percent today, and 20 percent of its value today. It went public Thursday at $33 a share. It traded as high as $142 a share on Friday. And as you can see right there, it closed today at just under $89 a share, only a few bucks from where it started trading. We're expecting another big week of I.P.O.s, including Firefly aerospace, which comes on Thursday and John, which will be another key test of this defense tech and space tech subsector if you will that's emerging and that Palantir is certainly pioneering. Okay, yeah, keep watching.

Well now let's turn to CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli, who's looking at the split between AI names and the rest of the market. Mike? Yeah, John, not a new story, but one that really keeps getting louder. Here is a split of the S&P 500 into directly AI leveraged stocks, those that are in tech but not directly AI, and then of course the rest of the index. This is sliced up by the strategists at Citi and you just see that the gap continues to widen. Non AI tech and rest of the market in

particular, you know, looks like kind of flat ish since early part of last year. We know this has been the case. The concentration continues. Now take a look at the earnings trends for these different buckets and it tells you why, right? The prices are following the profitability. This is the net earnings revision.

So basically how many revisions are up versus down and you take that differential. And so here you have, you know, AI non-AI tech, and then all the rest. So how much can this divergence go? How long and how wide can it get? Unclear, but I do think what it tells you is the S&P increasingly is kind of stuck with those trends, and essentially I think by some measures, more than half the market cap is in one way or another

Essentially capped capturing the AI theme Mike you showed the earnings revisions But what I keep thinking of when I see that is how much some of these hyperscalers are spending on AI at the same time as they're getting a Market benefit from it. How much does that speak to how well those big names that are spending big are also managing expectations? Well, what's interesting is I'm not sure if they're even actively having to manage expectations

on the capex side or if they were managing them, whether they would err on the high or the low side. What really is remarkable to me, I keep talking about this, is how the market is rewarding the companies that are sacrificing free cash flow this year in order to put it into AI by the tens and hundreds of billions of dollars,

and also rewarding, of course, the recipients of all that money. That's like the NVIDIAs and Oracles and Broadcoms of the world. So for now, the market doesn't think this is all just kind of overspend. It doesn't think that all the spending is redundant just yet. So I don't know how long that can last where basically everybody gets their credit for

doing the right thing in this environment. Maybe the opportunity is that big and there's enough to go around ultimately in terms of AI driven profitability and productivity that all of it can be redeemed. We'll see. We'll see. All right, Mike Santoli, we'll see you later in the hour. Coming up, a retail now names soaring thanks to the president.

And we'll take a broader look at that sector heading into the crucial back to school season. Overtime, we'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. American Eagle looking pretty good in its jeans today. Shares closing higher by more than 20% after President Trump responded to the backlash against the company for its advertising featuring actress Sydney Sweeney and complimenting the retailer's marketing campaign with the actress. Well sticking with retail, August anxiety could describe the feelings of students fretting about a new school year, but it could also apply to retailers as tariffs hang over the

crucial back to school season. Let's bring in Courtney Regan for more. I mean, back to school, I feel like started in June, but maybe that's just me. I know, depending on what part of the country you're in. I mean, I think our niece is in a if you start next week actually in Ohio, but August is sort of this extra angsty feeling this year, not just for parents and kids, but for retail too, because starting August 7th, we're now going to have these new so called reciprocal tariffs levied on about 40 countries at a rate of 15%. 26 countries are facing import tariffs of more than 15%. These are on top

of any other previously existing tariffs. Remember that complicates the picture. So for retail, India at 25%, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka at 20%, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Pakistan at 19% are among the most troublesome because of the manufacturing in those countries, particularly apparel and footwear. China's reciprocal plus fentanyl tariffs are sitting right now at 30% as negotiations are ongoing, or at least we believe so. And while Mexican imports are being tariffed at 25%, very importantly, goods that are under the USMCA, those are exempt. So that does allow Best Buy and Contour brands to breathe a little easier for now. Those could have

been big trouble for them. Now, good news is because of long lead times for international manufacturing, much of the inventory is likely already onshore for back to school and seasonal clothing, but not likely all of it. Many retailers are gonna report second quarter results later this month. So in the meantime, kind of staying quiet on the impacts.

But last week, Boot Barn CEO John Hazen did say its vendors have begun issuing price increases and new prices should be in place by the end of August. The former retailer also said it's going to hold off on raising prices for its own exclusive products for now to gauge price elasticity and then later revisit whether to raise or hold prices even on a per item basis. And then today in its earnings call Wayfair CEO Niraj Shah said quote prices have remained relatively consistent with the first quarter but he noted that Wayfair is a marketplace so its suppliers are going to take

different approaches to managing their cost increases but overall on an average prices have been consistent so far. So far I mean I know they're also this de minimis loophole that was closed last week too which I feel like is not getting a lot of attention either because, and specifically what it does to trade flows with Canada and the U.S. Just going back to this idea of price elasticity. Yes, it's fascinating.

Do retailers have the margins to absorb this themselves? I know that's a broad question. It is a broad question. I think it depends. I mean, there are so many levers that can be pulled. And I think that we figured this out, particularly during the pandemic and everything retailers went through with the inventory challenges and inventory being in

the wrong place at the wrong time. And so I think in a way, they got a little practice maybe in a different way of sort of flexing inventory and or the cost practices of that inventory. So I think the annoying answer is it depends. You know, you've got a retailer like Tapestry, which of course owns Coach and Kate Spade. And they say, we think that we can mitigate the costs ourselves without having to go into price increases.

Walmart is the world's largest retailer. And they said, we're gonna do our best. We're gonna mitigate as much as we can. But with tariffs at these levels, we're still probably gonna have to raise prices. And a lot of them are gonna use this portfolio approach, meaning they're gonna look at a per item basis and figure out if I raise prices on this computer,

will it prevent someone from buying it? And if so, maybe I should put that increase and put it on another product that's maybe more inelastic. So it's gonna be tricky for us to figure out as consumers. I think even as a reporter, I think retailers are gonna hold this a little close to their vest. We're gonna need to rely on AI and software

to sort of track prices and try to find some of these pain points for us. But then you never know, you could see a retailer lowering their price to see if that can spur someone as sort of a loss leader, right, to then bring them in and make up for it somewhere else. Like the chicken at Costco. Yeah, right, or the hot dogs or whatever,

you know, it's always a certain price no matter what. Viewers, manage your shopping carts accordingly. I know, be careful, do your homework. Well, it's time for a CNBC News Update with Bertha Coombs, Bertha. John, according to multiple reports in the Israeli media, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly leaning toward expanding the offensive in

Gaza and occupying the entire territory. He's said to be convening a cabinet meeting Tuesday to decide. The report comes after months of failed ceasefire talks. The Texas state legislature has reconvened as a fight over the Republicans' plan to redraw state congressional lines escalates. The statehouse cannot consider the plan today because they didn't have a quorum with more than 50 Democratic lawmakers who have fled the state. Governor Greg Abbott is threatening to remove those lawmakers from office or force their

return to the state for a vote. And the USDA is using some creative tactics to scare away predatory wolves from cattle. According to the Wall Street Journal, the agency is using drones that play a recording of actors Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver arguing in the movie Marriage Story in order to frighten them. A USDA district supervisor said the tactic is to teach the wolves that, quote, humans are bad. At least it's an Academy Award nominated fight, so they're getting some good drama. Are those the best humans to pick to teach that though? We'll see. Bertha, thank you.

Well, coming up, a tale of two very different companies. First, Palantir, up more than 6X in the past year, does have a rich valuation. We'll ask an analyst if the results we just got justify the hype. And then there's Berkshire Hathaway. It's up only 7% in a year. It's underperforming since Warren Buffett's big announcement will slow and steady still pay off in the long run. We're going to be digging into that

overtime. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Let's look at some movers this hour. Axon, the company behind Taser. Share is are higher after a beat on both earnings and revenue and raising guidance. One area of growth cited by the company, virtual reality training. Shares of Vertex Pharma, we mentioned earlier, but it's down even more now in overtime, 13 1 1 2%.

A beat on earnings and total revenue. With the company saying its drug for acute pain did not meet goals in a trial. Also watching lattice semi. Earnings coming in line with estimates. Same story for guidance. The stock, though, is lower by more than 2 and 1 half percent. Investors likely hoping for more.

And hims and hers earnings are out as well. Our Brandon Gomez has those numbers. Brandon? Hey, John. Yeah, you can see shares moving down just about 10%. A little confusion here for investors. I mean, you have a beat on EPS. Revenues did come in a bit light for the quarter.

Reaffirmed guidance for the fiscal year as well as Q3. What did come in very light was Q3 adjusted EBITDA. I just got off the phone with the company's CFO. He talked to me about what some of the cause of that is. He said, our focus is on investing in capabilities that will deepen the value customers can access on our platform. I asked him what exactly that means. And our focus is on investing in capabilities that will deepen the value customers can access on our platform.

I asked him what exactly that means. He said with all of the executive announcements that have been coming up, bonus packages, compensation, a lot of that being spent in the coming quarter. And then also he said there's going to be a lot of spend on marketing of weight loss drugs and core products in Q3. They see seasonality in Q1, a lot of users adopting those weight loss drugs, those core products, and then tapering off throughout the year. We're going to see some more reinvestment, you know, sort of speaking to that lighter

than expected Q3 adjusted EBITDA number. I'll be sort of coming through a little bit more of my conversation with the CFO and joining Fast Money later on today. All right. We're looking forward to that. With hims and hers down about 10% right now. Brandon Gomez, thank you. Well, Palantir also moving after hours.

It's jumping more than 4% right now after notching an all-time high in the regular session. The company topping a billion dollars in quarterly revenue for the first time, boosting its guidance. Again, I spoke with CEO Alex Karp and he told me he thinks Palantir's performance can serve as a use case for other companies to adopt AI and calls it a revolution of agency, meaning more radical output at a lower lower cost saying, quote, every single business is going to look at these financials and say I want to be more like that. To do that, they have to absorb our product and also interestingly, allow us to help them absorb part of our culture. Joining us now is Brent Braceland,

Piper Sandler, Senior Research Analyst. He has an overweight rating on the stock. Brent, it's great to have you on. Want to get your initial take on these numbers, especially given the fact that it was a beat in the raise. And yes, we can argue about valuation, but they are growing at gangbusters rates and not just on the top line,

but in terms of profit as well. Yeah, thanks for having me back here. I think that the key answer that came out of earnings here is this is definitely more than a meme. You're talking about a business that's now had eight consecutive quarters of accelerating top line growth. They guided this business to grow about 38% at the midpoint. They grew 48%.

They're guiding next quarter to 50% growth. This is a company that just delivered north of 50% free cash flow margins, even at just $4 billion scale. So I think it really shows that Palantir is really uniquely positioned as one of those AI infrastructure winners over the next, and again, valuation's a little rich here, but again, very strong proof points tonight

that the secular tailwinds are getting to the back. Is valuation rich if Alex Karp can pull off growing revenue by 10X over the next five years, which is what he told me he plans to do here, and he can do it largely on the back of the US business? 10X is ambitious. We'd love to see that. Ultimately, I think to underwrite the valuation in the multiple here you are playing for the long term right and you can't play for the short run the good news is the market is

playing for the short run here we've had multiple points here where the stock has pulled back in fact even with the beat last uh q1 the stock was down 12 so I think there's going to be opportunities to get more aggressively involved in Palantir, but these results are strong, certainly would suggest this could be a much bigger business than it is today. So Brent, even given your overweight rating, it's getting really close to your price target,

I believe, 170 a share. What metrics did you use to decide on that 170 price target and what will you look at when you're deciding whether to raise it? Sure. We're looking at a business that we think can grow through 2030 at a basically 30% plus growth rate. They just guided next quarter to 50. So we'll have to evaluate what that sustainable, durable growth rate is. The upside

this quarter came from Enterprise. That was a business that grew 71% last quarter, grew over 90%, pretty sharp acceleration in Enterprise. How durable is that? More work for us to do there, but that was the big surprise. US commercial, big acceleration there. Clearly, if they can continue that trend, that 30% growth rate could turn out to be conservative looking out through 2030. All right, fair enough. Grant Braceland, thank you with the stock, again, up four and a third percent.

Still ahead, AMD-OMG shares with the chip maker have more than doubled since early April. Coming up, Fast Money's Tim Seymour on whether there's still time to buy it ahead of its earnings after the bell tomorrow. But first, Berkshire shares have been under pressure since Warren Buffett announced that he had his upcoming retirement. So up next, Mike Santoli on whether the stock has lost the Buffett premium or if something else is going on.

Stay with us. The gap between Berkshire and the S and P 500 continues to widen ever since Warren Buffett announced his retirement. So let's bring back Mike Santoli for his take on Berkshire's recent under performance. Mike. Yeah, Morgan, certainly no way to disprove the idea that this latest bout of under performance in the stock is linked to some investors, you know, essentially selling not with Warren Buffett, not going to be calling all the shots starting next year.

But there is perhaps some other factors at work. I've showed this before where it's Berkshire Hathaway against the NASDAQ 100. And what you see here is once we started to hit some turbulence in the early part of this year and Mega Cap Tech sold off hard, you have a direct beneficiary in Berkshire Hathaway, which was the ultimate quality defensive stock that was the next largest stock after the Mag-7. So I do think it provided that quality premium, that defensiveness.

And then once you had that big bounce in NASDAQ 100, some of that premium came out of Berkshire Hathaway. Yes, it did coincide with that peak coincided with Warren Buffett announcing he was gonna be giving up the CEO role. Another factor, take a look at how Berkshire has traded relative to other insurance stocks. Insurance, the biggest sort of source of operating earnings

for Berkshire over a two year span. It's basically in the same spot. So a lot of explanations here. The other piece of it is Berkshire valuation got to an historic high or at least a 20-25 year high on a price to book value basis which is the way to think about it. That peak was the day before the shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway where Warren said he's stepping back and now it's in a more neutral state right here. So a lot going on but obviously

it got expensive and over owned in that short term timeframe, Morgan. Yeah, I mean, it is interesting too, the chart you just showed comparing it to other insurers, cause to your point, Berkshire's core business is still the insurance business, and that is what provides the float for them to be able to invest in everything else. I am curious though, and maybe it's not that different

from Apple in the sense that whether signs or speculation about M&A is something that could perk up the stock especially when you think about I don't know B&SF and the possibility of rail M&A. I think the market would view it favorably if they did some kind of M&A mostly because they've been so disciplined so therefore if they were to make a big bet on a new operating company or a huge stake, probably it would be considered to be a decent opportunity. The thing is, what if it's not under Warren Buffett? What if it is Greg Able, who's pulling the lever on one of those things?

I think that's gonna be an interesting test down the road, although Buffett did say if there is a big deal that happens between now and when he's no longer chairman He would have a significant role in overseeing that kind of a transaction 350 billion in cash It's a lot to work with for Berkshire. Yeah, I could do a lot with that Mike. Thank you Next fast money's Tim Seymour on how he's trading AMD and Pfizer ahead of their earnings tomorrow and the two names on Wednesday He'll be watching the closest. Plus check out shares of Joby Aviation flying high today finishing up 19 percent.

The Electric Air Taxi Company acquiring Blade Air Mobility's passenger business. This is a deal that could be worth up to $125 million and of course that's on the heels of an L3 Harris defense related partnership announced on Friday. Stay with us. Welcome back. Let's get you set up for tomorrow's trade today. On the economic front. We will get ISM services and international trade data and then it'll be another big day of earnings with Caterpillar, Pfizer, Yum Brands and DuPont all reporting before the bell. In overtime, so right here,

we will break down results from Amgen, AMD, Supermicro, Arista Network, Snap and Rivian. Speaking of Rivian, the CEO, RJ Scorringe, will join us in an exclusive interview before he dials into the analyst call there. And let's stick with earnings. Joining us now to look ahead at key names is Seymour Asset Management founder and CIO, Tim Seymour, also a fast

money trader. Hey Tim, let's start with Pfizer. Those earnings come out tomorrow morning, stocks down 11% year to date, 20% over 12 months. What do you do with it? I think you own it. Whether there's a major catalyst in the near term, this has been a disappointing stock. I'm long the stock.

In fact, we refer to it on fast money as Tim's Pfizer because it's been such a poor pick. But trading almost 30% cheap to five and 10 year forward P multiples. There are some exciting catalyst potentially in the three S bio deals. So oncology, lung cancer, and the seven and a half percent dividend yield. I think it's worth owning. All right. So now let's move down to AMD, Tim, because it's reporting earnings tomorrow right here on overtime. Huge run in the last three months, it's up nearly 80%. What do you think? Massive run, massive excitement on being a distant second.

GPU server strength is certainly an important part of the story. I think you're actually gonna see a healthy PC and data center business that is what really, I think, has put Intel on its skids more than anything else, but that's not necessarily what people are hoping for with AMD. 40 times forward, not crazy cheap,

but certainly not all that expensive relative to the growth I think you have. Again, despite this move, I think you can own this one, obviously a volatile outcome to be expected. All right, let's get a consumer flavor. Disney ended the day higher after Morgan Stanley raised its target on the name, saying it could see strong earnings growth.

If current macro trends continue, those earnings out Wednesday morning, buying the mouse? Mouse house, yeah, I'm longing the mouse house. Also, excellent price action. I think the street is, and sentiment and momentum around the stock is better because I think the DTC growth, we're gonna hear more about post Hulu and what that means for different bundling but the twenty seven percent DTC year to year over year growth is is excellent.

They've given you that long term guide whether they stick to it or not. Not sure but it's a story that I think has less bad on parks and some excitement around cruises. I think this is one where you know one where it's held important technical levels, but the fundamentals are improving. Okay. If we keep with consumers here, let's talk about Mickey D's, McDonald's. Those earnings come out on Wednesday,

stocks up 5 percent this year. Last quarter, not so great. Do investors get to see value from value meals? How about that? An adult happy meals, and I'm looking for one of those. So I think it's an interesting story. It's the best story in QSR. It's a dividend story with stable earnings profile.

That same store sales comp, Q1, was terrible. It was the worst one they've had since COVID. I think we're gonna be significantly better. And I don't think the bar's terribly high. I think this is a defensive stock and a potentially difficult market for the consumer. Tim, it's still early, of course. We gotta watch through all of fast money,

but Palantir's up 4 1 1 half percent. Might that be a signal that investors can still chase momentum and risk assets? They did today, and it was quite a head fake off of Friday. So Palantir is the ultimate, you know, chase the risk and chase the momentum. And sure, nice, nice guide in terms of the revenue story, but it is one where it's very difficult to justify the multiple. But that's what we've seen across a number of stocks.

So I'm not going to try to short that one. I'll tell you, I don't know that the fundamentals warrant the valuation, but yes, momentum is here in this market today was a major reversal off of a lot of fear on Friday. Okay, Tim Seymour, great to get your thoughts. Thank you, great to be here. We're gonna see you and the rest of the traders in just a few minutes for fast money. They're gonna be joined by UBS's Evan Brown,

who's laying out his bull case for fixed income as a hedge against market volatility. Meantime, Tesla hoping a new massive pay package for CEO Elon Musk will help keep him focused on turning around the EV maker's struggling business. We've got those details straight ahead. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the Closing Bell Overtime podcast

on your favorite podcast app. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Tesla awarding CEO Elon Musk nearly 100 million shares as part of a new pay package The EV maker hopes will incentivize him to stay at the company and turn around at struggling sales. Phil LeBeau has the details Phil Morgan I think this is the Tesla board saying we want Elon Musk to continue running this company. How do we keep them in place? Well, you do it by not waiting just for the Delaware Supreme Court to decide on the previous pay package. You come out with a new one. 96 million shares. Strike price of 23.34. Do the math with where the shares are right now. Comes out to about 26.8 billion dollars. And I mentioned that the board wants Elon to stay. Some of the requirements around this make it very clear that

that is the intention of the board. He must stay there through 2027 in a leadership capacity. He'll likely be CEO ownership approximately now 16% versus 13% and he must hold these shares for five years. Keep in mind the Delaware Supreme Court is still reviewing the 2018 pay package which now has a value over time. It's worth $ billion dollars, 50 billion at the time. The Tesla shareholder meeting this fall, no doubt, will likely have somebody saying, is this pay package fair? You know, that's always going to happen at some kind of an analyst meeting. But keep in mind, Morgan and John, twice Tesla shareholders have voted on his previous pay package and twice they said give the man his money.

And Phil, this is like the fan who hits the half court shot, right, at the NBA game or whatever, and then the folks don't want to pay the money. I mean, frankly, however you feel about Elon Musk, whatever, I mean, it seemed like a wild pay package to begin with. The targets were crazy. So putting that $27, $28 billion into context, which you did with what the previous pay package was, he hasn't had a new pay package since then, has he?

Correct. Correct. And I know there will be people who will say, well, come on. He's one of the richest people in the world. I don't know if he is the richest right now. Those metrics are always changing. Does he really need the money? That's besides the point He was given a contract back in 2018 and they had the metrics laid out. He hit all the metrics now a Lower court in Delaware said that contract was not awarded fairly and that's why they voided that contract

That's what's in front of the Delaware Supreme Court right now That's why they voided that contract. That's what's in front of the Delaware Supreme Court right now. You cannot deny one thing. He hit the metrics. Now whether or not that means the pay package was egregious or he shouldn't have been paid that, that is separate from the one thing that you cannot change, which is he delivered. He was given the metrics and he delivered. The ball went through the hoop.

Phil LeBeau, thank you. Yep. Well, some headlines from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley right now. On the July Fed decision she says she was willing to wait another cycle but quote can't wait forever. She says the job market is not precariously weak but it is softening. She added that she is seeing no indication of persistent tariff effect on inflation and this is one who you wouldn't necessarily expect to be clamoring for lower rates,

but seems to be tilting that way, significant perhaps after that Friday jobs report. Yeah, exactly. Labor being sort of the key piece of this and her roots as an economist being in labor research and data as well. So interesting to hear what she has to say. In a week where we're gonna get

a number of other Fed officials speaking too, and we do get a lot of earnings, including 37% of the IWM's weight is reporting this week. So small caps on tap. We just talked about McDonald's, but some of the other fast food and QSR names also reporting. So key read on the consumer there. And biotech is front and center too. So earnings have been driving the way here despite the macro. We'll see if it continues. And you're not thinking about any of those macro things necessarily if you own Palantir and you're seeing what this stock has done not only over the past several months but what it's doing right here on overtime. Yeah the AI trade is alive and well at least as it's evidenced in Palantir. I'm going

to be talking about it a little bit on fast money too with that conference call kicking off in just a few minutes. And there are more earnings coming as well. But Mike Santoli was talking about that bifurcation between AI and everything else. Yeah. Update for stocks that doesn't press here at overtime. Fast money starts now.