Closing Bell - Earnings Season Kicks Off Amid Tariff Tensions and Global Market Uncertainty 04/15/25

Episode Date: April 15, 2025

Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab break down the market action today as investors brace for a key week of earnings and macro headlines. Results from United Airlines, Interactive Brokers, and JB Hunt are in focus. Interactive Brokers Founder and Chairman Thomas Peterffy joins to discuss his company’s quarter and how retail clients are positioned after the last two weeks of high volatility. Mohamed El-Erian of Allianz offers perspective on the market backdrop and policy landscape. Later, Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI outlines stock positioning into earnings, while Charles Dallara weighs in on the evolving tariff outlook. The show wraps with Conor Cunningham of Melius Research breaking down United's performance and outlook.

That's the end of regulation Axis Capital ringing the closing belt the New York Stock Exchange Gallup Capital BDC doing the honors at the Nasdaq stocks dipping a tad yields mostly lower as well as Volatility pulls back after weeks of market turbulence. That's the scorecard on Wall Street, but the action is just getting started Welcome to closing bell over time. I'm Morgan Brennan John fort is off today Well after hours earnings season gets underway this hour with results from United Airlines, JB Hunt and Interactive Brokers. We're going to bring you all of those numbers as they cross and an interview with Interactive Brokers chairman and founder Thomas Petterfi before his call with analysts. Plus, Muhammad El-Arian will explain why he says a

return to volatility is likely coming soon and Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel says stocks are once again attractive, selectively though. He's gonna tell us where he recommends putting money to work now. But let's get straight to today's market action. Joining me now is Adam Chrisafouli, Vital Knowledge Founder and Jeff Kleintop. Charles Schwab, Chief Global Investment Strategist

along with CNBC's own Phil LeBeau, covering United Earnings, which just crossed already. We're going through them. Plus, Kate Rooney, tracking interactive brokers, and Steve Kovach, monitoring JB Hunt's numbers. Gentlemen, Adam and Jeff, I'm gonna get back, I'm gonna get to you to start this conversation. Adam, we basically finished fractionally lower on the S&P here and on the Dow as well they were just talking about

at the end of the last hour the fact that this is a very calm market to start the week perhaps most notable to me is the fact that the VIX has fallen back below 30 ahead of VIX expiration tomorrow what are asset classes signaling is this a bottom. I definitely think people are more comfortable that, we've removed a lot of the extreme tail risks from the table. We've had two big reversals on trade policy with the pause in the electronics exemptions.

There's talk about potentially doing something on all those tariffs. We're having some favorable rhetoric out of the Fed about the transitory language around any tariff inducedinduced inflation spike. So the downside risk scenarios are definitely, I think, removed from the table, but it's hard, especially at 5,400 on the S&P,

to be really bullish about incremental upside. But definitely there is a sense of calm and relief given some of the retreats that have happened on tariff policy. Okay, we're gonna pause this for a moment and go to Phil LeBeau for those United Airlines earnings. Phil? Morgan, what we have from United Airlines and the guidance is really what we're going

to be focused on, but let's start first off with the results from the first quarter. This was a beat, 91 cents a share. The street expecting 76 cents a share. Revenue coming in at 13.21 billion, just a smidge shy of analyst estimates at 13.26 billion. The pre-tax margin of 3%, you got free cash flow at 2.312 billion and revenue per seat mile of 5% year over year. Those numbers are going to be strong. And in addition, when you look at the revenue from the first quarter by each segment, domestic up 3.9% or negative 3.9% excuse me international revenue up 5.2% premium of 9.2 basic economy of 7.6 with the exception of domestic generally

speaking they're seeing the demand come through in the first quarter but it's the guidance this is what people are going to be focused on in the second quarter United expects to earn 325 to 425425 a share. The estimate is for $393. They are also going to be cutting their capacity by 4% compared to their original plan, and that will start in the third quarter, likely goes into the fourth quarter. It's a little bit vague on that guidance there. And then the full year guidance, I'm not sure how much this is

going to please investors. They're giving two sets of guidance. If the economy stays stable and is what it is right now over the rest of this year, well, they expect to earn what they originally put down as their guidance of $11.50 to $13.50 a share. But United says if there is a recession, and recession is the word they use, they are then forecasting to earn $7 to $9 a share. So what you've got is a really wide range, Morgan, between it could be really bad,

or if the economy's normal, we stick with our $11.50 to $13.50. Don't forget, we're gonna be talking with United CEO Scott Kirby tomorrow morning on Squawk Box. Do not wanna miss what he has to say. And again, the focus here is all about what they're seeing in terms of bookings, not only here in the second quarter, but as you move out through the rest of the year. Okay, Phil LeBeau, thank

you. Those shares are up 3% right now. Jeffrey Klientop, I want to get to you and not so much to react to these results specifically but the fact that I think about Larry Fink from BlackRock addressing the public last week and saying, hey we may already be in a recession based on some of the conversations I've had with certain CEOs and pointing to the airline specifically the public last week and saying, hey, we may already be in recession based on some of the conversations I've had with certain CEOs and pointing to the airline specifically to say they're the canaries in the coal mines.

To see two different sets of guidance here, do you expect we're gonna see more of that level? I can't remember seeing that before, but that level of uncertainty as this earnings season plays out. Yeah, so this week may mark a temporary ceasefire in the trade war, but the earnings reports and the guidance may reveal the early damage here.

Analysts have been cutting their earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies this week, but now it's spreading to Europe and other places as well. Today's quarterly update from European luxury goods maker LVMH revealed weaker than expected sales. Some of that was China, but some of that was the U.S. and the stock tumbled on that news. I think we're going to hear more about this. We know that there have been a lot of travel cancellations, particularly from Canadians as they look to travel to the US, maybe a little bit of a mini boycott there on travel and transportation, and that's showing up here in the numbers Phil just talked about, or the guidance Phil

just talked about. But looking out, this is what we're into now. It's a ceasefire in the trade war, but it's just the beginning of seeing the damage to earnings. And I think it could be far worse for companies and maybe giving that guidance in two wide ranges is, yeah, I would say not going to satisfy a lot of investors. Okay, we've got interactive brokers earnings out as well. Kate Rooney has those numbers.

Hi, Kate. Hi, Morgan. So it was a miss in the quarter, at least on EPS revenue coming pretty much in line. The company also announcing a four for one stock split and they're also raising the dividend by seven cents. On that EPS number I mentioned, adjusted EPS, $1.88. Street was looking for $192 there.

Below expectations, revenue of $1.4 billion. That was right in line. I mentioned the stock split and then the quarterly dividend for interactive is jumping from 25 cents to 32 cents some other stats here customer counts increased 32% in the quarter darts or daily active revenue trades that was up 50% and then customer credits and margin loans also higher margin loans increased of 24 percent Morgan and you can see shares pretty much flat here on that news back over to you all

right thank you Kate Rooney well coming up in just a moment interactive brokers chairman Thomas Pettifey will join me to break down those numbers before he dials into the call with analysts and talk about so much more meantime Adam want to get your reaction to what we've gotten here from these two very different earnings reports here in overtime, which speak to different parts of the economy at a time of so much uncertainty. Yeah, I mean, the airlines were in a way that countering the, you know, they were the early warning sign. They started cutting guidance back in March. We heard from Delta last week. No, Delta didn't give any guidance for the full year. There was so much uncertainty.

United Airlines has a little bit more clarity in that they're reporting after the 90-day freeze, though Delta was before that. So I'm most interested to see here if United has seen any shift in booking momentum since that 90-day freeze and then since the electronics exemption went into effect as well. That's kind of changed some of the trajectory of bookings trends in the travel market. But definitely, you know, I think it's just passing kind of the better than feared threshold. And that's why we're seeing the stock rally a little bit. The guidance for Q2 wasn't as bad as feared. But there's obviously still a ton of uncertainty.

And so I suspect you're going to hear a lot of companies for the full year, at least, either not give guidance at all or give kind of very, very wide ranges like that. United shares are now at five percent here in overtime. We've got another earnings report to bring you. J.B. Hunt results are out and Steve Kovac has those numbers. Steve. Hey, Morgan. Yeah, it's beats across the board here for J.B. Hunt. We're looking at EPS of a dollar 17. Street wanted to see a dollar 15 and revenues just barely a beat here.

Two point nine two billion dollars. Street was looking for a $2.9 billion. And as far as intermodal revenue, that was also a beat here at $1.47 billion. Street was looking at 1.4. Intermodal operating income also a beat here, more significantly $94 million versus $82 million expected. We see shares off about a percent and a half down Morgan.

Okay, we'll have to see how much of that is a pull forward and inventory given what we're seeing with all of the tariff dynamics. Steve Kovac, thank you. Jeffrey, I'm going to go back to you because we've talked about the outperformance of international markets versus the U. S. Obviously, you've just seen this very dramatic downdraft here in the U. S. The fact that you're starting to see earnings estimates brought down in places like Europe right now. Should investors brace for a correction to start to come to these markets too, the longer these trade dynamics play out in their current state?

Obviously, there are no winners in a trade war. And so on an absolute basis, there could be some risk there. On a relative basis, I still see outperformance by Europe. Valuations are down around 12 times earnings. So I think they're already bracing for a pullback in earnings growth. We're not seeing that in US equity. So I think you're still well positioned there. And look, Europe's magnificent seven or back. If there's an area in the market we can be confident or more confident about earnings growth and revenue growth, that is in the MAG seven defense stocks in Europe, those in the MSCI EMU aerospace and defense index.

Still a lot of confidence that European defense spending, no matter what the economic situation is, could double or more in the years to come. Germany's Rheinmetall hit a new high today. France's biggest defense company, Thales did as well. Those are back and they're an area that investors, I think, may look for to find some confidence in this kind of environment when many other business leaders are giving very wide ranges of guidance. Of course, expectations growing that you can start to see more defense spending coming out of places like Canada now too.

Lots to watch here. Jeffrey Kleintop and Adam Chris Fooley, thanks for kicking off the hour with me and what was a mixed day for stocks, but basically marginal moves in both directions, the S&P down fractionally. Let's talk more about a specific name Interactive Brokers the company just reporting results announcing a stock split four for one raising its dividend. Journey's now exclusively before the earnings call is Interactive Brokers founder and chairman Thomas Petterfi. Thomas it's great to have you back on the show welcome and I do want to start with what you saw on the quarter, especially as we did see the surge in volatility and trading activity.

Yeah, so our customers seem to be very optimistic because throughout the quarter, they were not buyers. And even when the market kept going down, they were every day, they bought more than they sold. So it's been a very interesting quarter from that point of view. What are you seeing now as the second quarter gets underway, given everything we've seen with President Trump's

tariff announcements and the policy that seems to evolve and shift on a day-to-day basis? It is the same story continuing forward. They are just buying and buying and buying. More and more money is coming in, more and more accounts are being opened, and it is just the same story. You said it last week in an interview

that you think the market bottom is in. Do you still feel that way? And if so, are investors missing, and Wall Street pundits missing the forest for the trees here? Because when you're talking about the noise around a change in trade policy, certainly it triggers uncertainty, which is what we're seeing and hearing about, including from CEOs right now.

But over the long term, if you actually enact a restructuring of the economy, we're seeing and hearing about, including from CEOs right now, but over the long term, if you actually enact a restructuring of the economy, couldn't that over the long term be very positive for the stock market? That's what I think, but I think people are missing the fact that the competing with this suddenly much, much more expensive foreign goods is giving a great deal of opportunity to more entrepreneurial, nimbler companies within the United States. So I think that as they are, many, many enterprises are going to gear up to produce substitute goods and services, will be, will generate a lot of economic activity and that is going to become a boom, an economic

boom instead of a recession. So we've talked about the prediction markets before, which you have at Interactive Brokers and certainly they were in many cases more accurate than the polls were coming into the November election. In terms of these forecast contracts now, how are they being used? How is that market growing? And what does it mean for a new way to potentially hedge when you do see this much volatility? So it's very interesting because you see we have we have contracts on whether there'll be

economic indicators and among them whether there'll be a recession. And as the expectation of the recession increases, the probability that the Republicans will maintain control of the House keeps decreasing. So as these things move relative to each other, it's very interesting to watch. So currently it looks like people believe that traders believe that the Republicans will lose the house with a likelihood of 69 percent and the recession is about the recession likelihood is 30 percent in the second quarter and 40% in the third quarter. So, you know, as you look at these probabilities daily, it is very interesting to see how people's mood changes day to day and hour to hour.

I want to ask you about Newsmax because via one of your investment vehicles, you're the second largest shareholder, wildly successful IPO. It's been called a meme stock given the moves we've seen every which way. It's still trading well above where it went public here. I just want to get your thoughts on what that says not only about that company and about the IPO market, but about perhaps new media and new business models in this marketplace.

So it seems that there is a hunger for different kinds of news. And that's what I think the IPO, the successful IPO reflects. Newsmax is an interesting venture by Chris Roddy, and hopefully he will succeed. I have gotten into this by more or less accident because I've been a friend of Chris Roddy for a long time, and he has asked me to put up some money when he needed it some four years ago, and suddenly it's become an unexpectedly successful investment. Will you be a shareholder for the long term? Of course, of course.

Thomas Petterfee, it's great to have you on. Thank you so much. Thank you very much. The chairman of Interactive Brokers. Well coming up next, stocks settling into a calmer pattern this week. But Muhammad Al-Aryan says don't get used to it. He's going to join us next to explain why. And later, we'll talk to former managing director of the Institute of International

Finance Charles DeLara about how tariffs could impact the global financial system. And we've got much more ahead on all of today's after hours action, including an analyst's first take on United's results. Those are shooting higher, up 6% right now. And over time, we will be right back. Welcome back. Myrona moves for the major averages today, which feels like news in of itself

after what we've been seeing lately, as volatility retreats and the bond market settles after weeks of turmoil. But our next guest says investors should expect to return to volatility in the weeks ahead. So joining us now is Allianz, Chief Economic Advisor, Mohamed El-Ari. And Mohamed, it's great to have you back on.

And let's start right there because it's, it almost to me doesn't feel like the calm before the storm. It feels like we're in the eye of the hurricane. We've already had one round of storms here and another poise to come maybe in the next whatever now, 80, 85 days. Yeah, first Morgan, thanks for having me. Look, I love this calm.

It's nice to have calm in the equity market, in the bond market, in the currency market. We've needed it and let's hope it continues. But fundamentally things have not been resolved. Fundamentally, the game of chicken between China and the U.S. continues. And other countries are trying

to figure out how to navigate this. And fundamentally, the game of chicken between the administration and the Federal Reserve continues. So welcome the calmness, but let's not get used to it,

because I suspect there's volatility ahead. Let's talk a little bit more about that game of chicken between, I'll say, President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, or between the Fed and between the administration. We're going to be hearing from the Fed Chair tomorrow in the afternoon. There seems to be an expectation on the street that he's going to sort of stick to the messaging

we've already been hearing from most Fed officials. When we talk about a game of chicken, what does that entail? How does that play out? So I share the view that he will stick to his previous script. The game of chicken played out last Tuesday and last Thursday. We got close to market malfunction. It's in the treasury market. You saw unusual correlations. You saw off the run treasuries facing illiquid conditions. You saw frantic trading and this line that divides volatility

where you can get whatever you want done at a price and market malfunction where you cannot get things done and you go do something else is a very delicate line. We got close to it. Someone had to blink, either the Fed by intervening in an emergency fashion, lowering rates and talking about QE, or the administration by stepping back from the reciprocal tariffs. It is the administration that blinked. And the Fed came out of that one happy because the Fed doesn't want to cut interest rates at this point. They're still worried about inflation.

So it was a good thing to have that and this was followed on Friday by assurances from a Fed official that if we get more market malfunction risk, the Fed will intervene. So so far the Fed is in a good place because the administration blinked. Do you wonder what you make of the pretty wild moves we have seen here in the last week and a half, albeit not today, but in the bond market, Treasury Secretary Besson played down the idea that this was foreign nations dumping holdings of U.S. treasuries and basically said he had seen no evidence of that, instead pointing to deleveraging that's been happening in the market.

Do you see it the same way? At what point would you become more concerned about the volatility there? Yeah, someone said this morning the secretary of the treasury said what the secretary of the treasury should say, and he said it really well. And I think that has the Secretary of the Treasury said what the Secretary of the Treasury should say, and he said it really well. And I think that has contributed to the return of calm. The reality is, Morgan, that there are major questions about whether the U.S. remains a

safe haven, whether we can continue talking about economic exceptionalism, there's a pathway to reassuring people. And that includes we continuing on deregulation, on fiscal reform, and importantly, we getting concessions from other countries. Because if we get concessions from Japan, from Korea, and negotiations are ongoing, then you will get the notion of a united front against China.

If however we slip on domestic policy implementation, if we somehow return to the reciprocal tariffs, then this is going to be a much bumpier road. I think United captured it really well. Like you said, it's really unusual to have two scenarios, but that's exactly what they had, two scenarios. Stable economy, recession. Certainly the White House press secretary saying that something like 15 trade deals

are potentially getting negotiated right now. So we'll have to see how that plays out here in coming days. You just mentioned this idea of maybe the US being reconsidered as a safe haven, and certainly we've seen these moves in the dollar and the Treasury market. If the U.S. is no longer the world's safe haven, what would be? Well, there's nothing to step in. So the U.S. has time to restore the confidence that other people have.

That's the good news. If confidence continues to erode, then you will see reserves being diversified into gold even more. And the path of gold has been fascinating because record high, a bit of profit taking, another record high, a bit of profit taking, and all correlations have broken down. Gold goes up in a risk-off world and a risk-on world. Gold goes up in a dollar strength, dollar weakness. So you will see countries diversify at the margins.

You will see investors continue what they're doing, which is go from the US elsewhere, particularly in Europe. And you will continue to see the dollar weaken. So that is the indications that you would get if confidence in the US as a safe haven is again under pressure. Mohammed El-Arian, great to get your thoughts. Thank you for joining me today. Thank you, Morgan. Up next, Apple's long game, the company making multi-billion dollar moves ahead of the Trump tariff announcement

to get around elevated duties. We've got new details next. And Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel is bringing along a list of stocks he likes into this earnings season, including one mag seven name to buy at current levels. Overtime, we'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. New details emerging about Apple's multi-billion dollar move to front run the Trump tariffs by airlifting phones out of India in recent weeks. and Steve Kovac joins us now with the latest Steve We're gonna be hearing so much about this Morgan, but let me tell you the latest this is coming out of a Reuters report today

They're saying in March Apple airlifted about two billion dollars worth of iPhones from the India to the US Most of that coming from Apple supplier Foxconn Fox Foxconn also makes the iPhones out there in China. Reuters reported this last week, but the new report today is now citing officials US customs data with some more numbers in there. Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported one in five iPhones are now made in India. And IDC, that's a research firm that follows the mobile industry. Yesterday, they said Apple pulled forward shipments in the March quarter ahead of the tariffs and shipped 10% more phones than it did in the first quarter a year ago. This was all of course ahead of those Liberation Day tariffs and since then we got the exemptions

over the weekend, but still those fentanyl tariffs of 20% on China. So open up there in India and places like Vietnam, still China is going to be some things to work through. And we're going to be seeing these headlines as India increasingly becomes the dominant exporter of iPhones to the United States. What you're not going to see though, iPhones made in the US. Apple's tariff hopping here from China to India,

not China to the USA, as some people in the White House may want you to believe. So wait then, what's that $500 billion investment number from Apple here in the U.S.? It's a lot of stuff. So, and they do this every administration. This is not just a, you know, an overture to Trump. They did it in the Biden administration. People think there are a lot of things baked into that.

The one thing that they are doing that is new and novel, they're taking manufacturing of those AI servers and they're bringing it from overseas and they're gonna start building in Houston. But there are a number of other things in there. They talk about supporting tens of thousands of jobs, for example. That could be everything from the money Apple pays to Qualcomm, for example, for licensing for some of their chips.

It could be a number of different things, app developers and stuff, basically trying to get that number as high as possible to show the administration, hey, we're here. We're investing in America We saw it from Nvidia yesterday We saw it from AMD today a lot of the criticism of course is these numbers sound great and big but a lot of it was Already baked in to what these companies were planning to do before Trump was even reelected. Okay. Well, I guess the devil's in the details

Yes, politics by press releases how Andrew us work and put it this morning. I like, okay. Yeah, we'll see how quickly some of this gets stood up. Indeed. Steve Kovacs, thank you. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News Update with Kate Rooney. Hi, Kate. Hi there, Morgan. A federal judge has blocked most of President Trump's executive order against law firm Sussman Godfrey. The judge ruled today that the order, which threatened to cancel federal contracts held by the firm's clients and restrict its lawyers' access to federal buildings and officials, pointed toward a personal vendetta by the president. The White House has yet to comment. Meanwhile, a top adviser for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, was escorted out of the Pentagon

today after being identified as an investigation looked into the leaks of the Department of Defense. Reuters first reported that story, an official telling NBC News that Dan Caldwell was put on administrative leave for quote, an unauthorized disclosure. And finally, a jury has been seated in the retrial of Karen Reed, the woman accused of killing her Boston police officer boyfriend in 2022. The first trial did end with a hung jury and opening statements are set to begin next Tuesday when prosecutors will argue that Reed drunkenly backed her SUV

into officer John O'Keefe. Reed has pleaded not guilty. Morgan, back over to you. All right, Kate Rooney. Thank you. Coming up next, Evercore ISI's Julianne Emanuel says three stocks are too cheap to ignore, heading into earnings, including one MAG7 name. We're gonna get his picks next. And another check here on United Airlines on the back of results where the company took the unusual step of giving guidance

for two different scenarios for this year. We're gonna discuss with an analyst as that stock pops 6%. When overtime returns. Welcome back the major averages finishing slightly lower, extending couple days of relative calm after the markets.

Terrafall utility, one effect of the recent uncertainty playing out in overtime as United Airlines takes the rare step of giving out two different outcomes and its full year guidance, giving a recession scenario outlook and a non-recession outlook.

Joining me now is Julian Emanuel, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI. And Julian, it's great to have you on. I do want to get, I know you've brought us some picks and I do want to get into those, but first I do want to get your thoughts on the fact that we did just see this double forecast out of United Airlines. I can't remember a time, at least in recent history, where we've seen a

company take the step of doing that. How does it speak to this moment we're in? And do you expect we're going to see more of this? It's an incredibly smart move by management, Morgan. Look, we all know whatever the measure is, consumer confidence, CEO confidence, trade uncertainty, all of these elements are near record highs. And if a company can give investors sort of a worst case scenario modeling, you can plan. You can think about your downside. You can think about how the business might evolve. And frankly, you can also think about the elements that would cause that not to occur and cause them to meet the revised forecast and potentially beat them. It's our fondest wish

that the rest of corporate America will take that angle as well. as we have in recently cutting our price target to 5,600. We modeled bull and bear cases as well. Everyone should do that exercise. I would note 5,600 is still higher than where we are here. It looks like we settled at 5,396 for the S&P 500. Looking at your note, what got my attention was the fact that you signaled that the bearish sentiment here, the trading volumes, reminded you of the great financial crisis, the Gulf War trough, both of which you said are generational buying opportunities.

Is this a generational buying opportunity? I wouldn't call it a generational buying opportunity with a great big G because, frankly, the valuations are much higher now than they were then. But when you think about the depth of pessimism, the depth of sentiment, we did an investor poll of 1,000 clients just this past Friday. 81% of the respondents thought we were either already in a recession or we're going to start a recession in the second half of the year.

That's about as pessimistic as you can get. When you look at the bull bear readings as well, those are really evocative of trend endpoints rather than continuations. Our view is the rest of the year is going to be difficult. It's going to have an upside bias. There are paths to higher prices than 5,600, but it's a very fine line. And obviously the uncertainty is going to remain

quite elevated. And we have seen more defensive sectors in the S&P, for example, have outperformed everything else in these last couple of weeks. What do you buy here now then? We actually want to take some chips off the table in those defensive sectors, primarily because if you think about last week, those defensive sectors had outperformed in large

part due to the feeling that we were coming into a recession. And I think we got a lot of questions from clients that does Washington actually want a recession to occur, given its desire to lower interest rate and lower oil prices and so on. And we've always felt the answer to that was no. And the Trump administration put an exclamation mark with its pivot that the answer to that is no. And in that environment, the defensive stocks lose some of their luster, particularly as

yields move to this stickier type level. We want to go back with what were prior the bull market winners, technology-oriented, who also had the most damage in this last sell-off. So the tech trade is back. Name some names for me. name some names for me. Well, we've looked in the Mag 7, Google's very interesting to us, Salesforce and Uber are the ones that stand out. It's a quantitative screen of stocks that are trading near five-year trough valuations. And what we found out importantly last week is that looking at 10 years of history when more than 80% of the S&P 500 is trading below the midpoint of their five-year valuations, it's a very

strong buy signal for the market. Happened in 2018, happened at the pandemic low in 2020, the bear market low in 22, the interim low in 23. We believe it happened last week. Julian Emanuel, thank you. Thank you. Well up next, the former CEO of the Institute of International Finance.

Who's been a leader through a number of financial crises on whether all this tariff uncertainty is threatening a global recession or not. Stay with us. Welcome back. Volatility easing in the market today, but tariff disruptions to the global economic order may be here to stay. Joining us now to discuss is Charles DeLara.

He is the former CEO of the Institute of International Finance. He is currently the chairman of the board for Partners Group USA. He helped design and implement the Plaza Accordsords among many other things over the years. Charles, it's great to have you back on overtime. Welcome. It's great to be with you, Morgan, particularly after a day that's fortunately been somewhat calmer than much of the activities last week. Yes, it has definitely been calmer.

I am curious, though, more broadly, given what we have seen here in the last couple of weeks and given the fact that you have weathered a number of market and economic cycles and you have been on the forefront of certain financial crises we've seen over the years, how you would categorize this moment we're in right now? Well it's a very critical moment because I think we're not only dealing with an issue of tariffs but we're dealing with broad questions Morgan as to whether or not the U.S. is intending to turn away from the global trading and financial system that has been built under U.S. leadership for the past 80 years.

It's not at all clear to me that that's really the intention. But if it's not, then perhaps it would be very prudent for Secretary Besant to make clear that we're trying to address unfair trading practices. If it's not, then perhaps it would be very prudent for Secretary Besant to make clear that we're trying to address unfair trading practices. We're trying to solve some serious economic imbalances here. But we're not trying to walk away from Bretton Woods. We're not trying to isolate the U.S. from the rest of the world economy, because I think the anxieties and fears which have been generated are not just around the tariffs, although

I think that's the heart of it. But I think it's also around the broader questions of what this portends in terms of President Trump's strategy toward the global economy going forward and whether or not he still sees benefits in working with our allies and working with the multilateral institutions and in building a stronger U.S. economy that perhaps is part of a freer trading system than we've had before but one that is still integrated into the rest of the world economy more. I think you you raise a very key point that I don't think we've been touching on the nuance of enough and that is isolationism does not the restructuring we're seeing of the U.S.

economy does not automatically equate to isolationism. It, the restructuring we're seeing of the US economy does not automatically equate to isolationism. It does raise a question though and I realize the devil's in the details here as policy evolves on a quite literal daily basis but if you do see this restructuring of the US economy right now through trade and potentially probably through other fiscal measures here in the U.S. as well. What does it mean for the global financial system and how that responds? Well, I think it depends largely on how this policy is handled over the next 90 days.

I think we've seen so many twists and turns in terrorist strategy here that we're not exactly sure what the end game here. Is it to correct unfair trading practices, especially in countries like China, where they have certainly been prevalent or is it to really establish some bilateral trade balances across the globe, which is utterly impractical. I mean, all countries have certain comparative advantages in producing certain products,

and there's no inherent benefit to any country or any individual from having bilateral trade balances. The advantage, really, is to have an open trading system where countries compete on their own comparative advantages. And I think if that's what President Trump is trying to eventually get to, and that's a good way to renew the strength of the global economy, then I think it's so important to clarify the endgame here and to move away from the notion that a higher level of tariffs will somehow reinvigorate the U.S. economy, because I think that is not going to be the case. In fact, it's already

threatening to damage important sectors of the U.S. economy here. And I think we know that that we benefit on the whole from an open and thriving global trading system. We have benefited for many decades, and we can continue to benefit because we have a strong dynamic economy. And as my friend Mohammed El-Erian pointed out, it's also important to reassure countries around the world that we can maintain confidence in the dollar, that we can maintain functionality and stability in our bond markets, and that we can maintain an open capital system, an open flow of investment on which we depend very heavily from other countries.

Now, we mentioned at the beginning of this conversation that you are one of the architects of the Plaza Accord going back to the 1980s. What do you think about what we've seen, the unusual moves we have seen in the dollar, and perhaps just as importantly, this notion of a Mar-a-Lago accord that's being floated? Well, I'm not sure really about the details of the Mar-a-Lago accord at all. Not much has been said about that publicly recently at all either.

What I would say is that the movements in the dollar have concerned movements in the dollar have concerned me in the last week or two because you don't wanna have a growing perception that the value of the dollar as a reserve currency, as a safe haven is declining. And there are legitimate questions being raised about how we will handle our responsibilities

and our role as the reserve center of the world. And I think that was reflected in the deterioration of the value of the dollar. On the other hand, I would say that in recent years and months, the dollar has been overvalued relative to some other currencies. Now, this is not the way you want to see a weakening of the dollar. But if there is a desire to realign exchange rates, that can be done in a much more orderly constructive fashion as we did during the Plaza Accord. Now the world economy is much more integrated today, and China plays a much different role

than it did in 1985 when we implemented the Plaza Accord. But the fundamental notion of economic policy coordination among the key countries in the world remains a vital notion. You would have to re-figure the G7, maybe turn it into a slightly different group, including India and China. But you could still consider and contemplate a set of countries which could come together and coordinate not just trade policy, but fundamental aspects of fiscal and monetary policy in a way that would be in the interest

of all of the key economies in the world. And I think if there is a desire to preserve the role of the dollar as a reserve center, and I think that is in the U.S. interest, this is one way to do it, not through this trade war, which I think really does pose serious risks in the near and medium term for the U.S. economy. Charles DeLara, great to get your insights today.

Thank you so much for joining me. Great to be with you again, Morgan. Thank you. Well, coming up, an analyst gives us his first reaction to United's quarter and the fact that the company gave guidance for multiple different scenarios. Well, let's check in on today's overtime earnings movers. company gave guidance for multiple different scenarios. Well, let's check in on today's overtime earnings movers and tractor brokers under some pressure after missing on earnings. We have but matching revenue estimates also

announcing a four for one stock split and raising its dividend. JB Hunt topping earnings and revenue estimates but the stock is pulling back here in overtime now down 6% for the first real read on the freight piece of the economy in transports. Up next, an analyst with a buy rating on United reacts to the carrier's profit beat and its guidance for two separate economic scenarios. Welcome back. We have a news alert on the IPO market.

Steve Kovach has the details. Hey there, Morgan. Figma, that's a design software company that competes with Adobe. They just said they filed a confidential S1 to go public with the SEC. We'll probably see that in the next week's update. Chief Kovac has the details, Steve. Hey there Morgan, Figma, that's a design software company that competes with Adobe. They just said they filed a confidential S1 to go public with the SEC. We'll probably get a look at that S1

as they get closer to going public. You might remember Figma was the company that Adobe actually tried to buy a couple years ago for $20 billion, but abandoned the deal in December of 2023 over regulatory concerns. Couldn't get that deal over the finish line, but we'll get a better look at Figma's financials hopefully pretty soon here as we got another IPO coming up.

All right. We'll be watching it. Steve, thank you. Meantime United is moving higher after reporting a mixed quarter and giving guidance for two scenarios. One estimate for a recession, one assuming there is no recession.

Those were full year forecasts. Joining me now is Milius Research Director Connor Cunningham. Connor, it's great to have you on. They also cut capacity, although a little light at least in the press release on details around that. Your take on what I would call an unusual earnings report today.

Yeah, nothing, it's always something with United. But honestly, I think that you now have two scenarios in which the environment doesn't change, and numbers are actually going to be rising, and then a potential recessionary environment where you now have downside, and you know where that is. The reality is that all we really wanted to hear about was supply coming out of the system. Understandably, we know that the booking curve hasn't really changed a lot over the past two weeks. That was echoed by Delta as well. So, you know, they're saying all the right things in the current environment. Again, tough to really to really know what's going on out there right now.

And Delta really set the tone for this season. And I realize folks are less interested in in Q1, much more interested in what the rest of this year is going to portend. How does United fit into that narrative if it does or doesn't and how does it set us up for the rest of this year is going to portend. How does United fit into that narrative, if it does or doesn't, and how does it set us up for the rest of the airlines to report? Yeah, so Delta and United are always one A and one B, I guess is how I would characterize them. They're going to be your best prints this quarter for sure.

I mean, again, they've been leaning pretty hard on premium revenue, loyalty, international strength in general has been a real good thing for them as well. But to me, what's going on, this quarter changed very quickly. January was good. March was not good at all and exiting pretty negatively. What is important here is that they're assuming that nothing really changes, but the street actually already assumes that on some level. So them being kind of within the overall expectation range is clearly positive. Again, if things remain stable, there's likely upside to numbers. We'll see how that actually ends up playing out. Again, this environment remains very challenging to forecast. So, but as things stand

right now, if things don't deteriorate further. United certainly is positioned quite well. OK, Connor Cunningham, thanks for joining me with United up 7% right now in after hours. Don't miss the first on CNBC interview with United CEO tomorrow at 730 a.m. on Squawk Box. We get China data, economic data on the overnight. Also today's tax day. So seasonality could be starting to come into play here for this market, but that's going to do it for us here at Overtime.