Closing Bell - Fed Focus & Earnings Deep Dive: MongoDB, PVH & Nvidia Preview 8/26/25

Episode Date: August 26, 2025

Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart weighs in on Fed policy and the latest around Lisa Cook. Steve Kovach breaks down MongoDB and Okta earnings results. Courtney Reagan analyzes PVH's latest quarterly performance. BofA's Jill Carey Hall explores small-cap opportunities with the Fed potentially cutting rates. Bespoke Co-Founder Paul Hickey provides comprehensive market analysis while Guy Adami delivers Fast Money's first look at market movers. Wells Fargo's Aaron Rakers offers an essential Nvidia earnings preview ahead of the chip giant's highly anticipated results. 

Well, that bell marks the end of regulation. S-S&C Alps advisors ringing the closing bell through New York Stock Exchange. New Tech's health doing the honors at the NASDAQ, stocks closing in the green, the Dow erasing a nearly 90-point loss early in the session as investors digest. President Trump's latest attempt to reshape the Fed and get ready for invidious earnings tomorrow and overtime. Industrial is the top-performing sector led by Boeing, which announced a big plane order from Korean Air. And oil falling, more than 2% dragging down the energy sector.

Halliburton and Devon Energy among the biggest losers in the S&P. That's a score caught on Wall Street, but winters stay late. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm John Ford. Morgan Brennan is off today. Ahead on overtime, former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart reacts to President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and what it means for the central bank's independence and investor confidence. Plus, small caps have had three big days just the start of a rally for the Russell.

And we are moments away from some key tech and consumer earnings. We'll bring you those results as soon as they are released and ready. Now let's get into today's market comeback with Christina Parts and Netflix. Christina. Yeah, definitely a comeback, but really we could say a muter reaction to President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook over mortgage fraud allegations. But the Russell 2000 stands out and it continued its outperformance ever since Powell's dove his speech last week,

as smaller companies really stand to benefit more from anticipated cuts. As you can see on your screen, it is the top performer. But investors really are just in this holding pattern ahead of Nvidia's earnings tomorrow. The stock represents almost 8% of the S&P 500 and could fuel the AI bull narrative against. For example, interactive brokers data shows that their most active customers use Friday's rally as a profit-taking opportunity after buying dips earlier last week. Invidia itself, though, saw consistent net buying with options activity leaning more bullish rather than protective. That confidence really matches analyst sentiment. CFRA, the latest, just bumped their target to $206 for $196,

citing Blackwell Ultra Ramping. So really, that's the latest chip that's scheduled to come out. The chip love extends beyond Nvidia, though. City raised Broadcom's price target to $315 on AI strength, driving roughly 30% of 2025 estimated sales, while Truist upgraded AMD to buy at 213, seeing hyperscalers, really treating AMD as a true partner, not just a, quote, price check on NVIDIA. And this is a weird pivot, but from chips to clothing, Baird upgraded Canada Goose and VF Corp to outperform, calling it, calling for a better 2026 for apparel markets.

And that pivot could be timely, PVH, which is the parent of Tommy Hilfiger Calvin Klein, reports earnings very, very soon, John. All right, Christina, thank you. And now let's talk to Rick Santelli at the CMA in Chicago, looking at a mixed bag. for bond yields, Rick? Yes, definitely a mixed bag. Let's start out with the data this morning. You know, durable goods headline was down 2.8%. That was better than expected.

But when you got to the meat on the bone and stripped out transportation, the numbers were pretty good. Capital Good Orers Non-Defense X-Air was very good proxy for capital spending. When you looked at consumer conference from the conference board, the headline number was better than expected. But when you look at revisions, sequentially, every category was lowered.

is a mixed bag. Look at the markets. Since Friday, and I picked Friday for twos and tens, because Friday was the big Fed day, interest rates went down, and mostly it's been sideways. It did come back a bit on the tens, but as you can see on the chart, mostly sideways with a bias. Shorter maturities yields are lower, which brings me to the biggest story of the day. Look at the twos ten spread. It's going to close at the widens that's been in three months, But every single other spread on the curve, we're talking long-term dates with history. I just picked two. Tens minus fives is known as the fight.

30s minus tens known as the knob. Both those spreads are on pace to close at the fresh widest they've been in four years. What I didn't include, threes to thirties, five's the thirties. All the spreads are basically at the widest in four plus years. This has been something going on for the last couple of months, and it continues to be a feature in the market. Why should you think about it? Because that implies the curves can remain steep.

Does that mean 10-year rates can't go down a bit? Of course not. But what it probably means is two-year rates will go down faster. John, back to you. All right. Thanks for giving us the bottom line, Rick Santelli. Now let's head to Washington where President Trump is stepping up his attacks on the Fed by attempting to fire for board member Lisa Cook

and making comments in his cabinet meeting. The Fed now reacting as well. Armaged Cassella has the latest on this developing story. Megan? Hey, John to the White House saying just in the last hour or so that President Trump was acting with lawful authority in removing Cook from her position. And the president himself saying in that cabinet meeting

that he would abide by any court ruling that is to come on this. But Trump also suggested that he might move his newest vet appointee, that Steve Myron, to Cook seat where he could stay until 2038. That would then help ensure that a majority of appointees on what is supposed to be a nonpartisan board, remain Trump aligned. We just put a very good man in one position.

We might switch him to the other. It's a longer term and pick somebody else. But we're very happy with the person we have in there. And we'll have a majority very shortly. So that'll be great. Once we have a majority, housing is going to swing and it's going to be great. Now, the Fed also commenting in the last hour or so saying that Congress, through the Federal Reserve Act, directs governors to serve in long, fixed terms. It said in the statement that long tenures and removal protections serve as a vital safeguard to ensure that monetary policy decisions are based on data on economic analysis and the long-term interest of the American people.

And John, just like the president, the Fed also said later in that statement that it will abide by any court decision regarding Cook's role. John. All right, Megan Casala, thank you. For more on this, let's bring in former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart. Dennis, great to have you and your perspective on this. Is this concerning the idea of removing someone for something that happened before Senate confirmation, even if that particular issue might not have come up itself in the confirmation proceedings? I think the central question is what does four cause mean and it's likely to be adjudicated. Normally you would think that four cause really relates to misbehavior while in office and misbehavior in carrying out the responsibilities of the office. This is, as you pointed out, is before confirmation. so we don't know yet how in all likelihood courts will decide on that. Well, it seems to me that we're potentially in a position where anything questionable,

there hasn't been a criminal ruling on this or a court ruling of any kind. Anything questionable that someone has done in the past, either during their tenure or before, could be cause in this. frame and that that could lead to a certain politicization, if I can say it straight, politicization of the Fed itself, which is supposed to be non-political, no? Yeah, we'll see how this plays out. It's very early. Of course, the news only came out 24 hours ago or less, and there's a lot of ambiguity around the situation, so every day will probably get an update, but as of now, it appears that Lisa Cook is going to resist this

and say it's wrongful dismissal or wrongful termination, and the Fed may back her up on that, and the White House has already made clear that they think they have the authority. I just don't know how this will play out, but we have to watch it. It is a distraction and a side show that is not good for. for the credibility of the Fed and keeping its focus on its mandated objectives, which is really what its job is. Are you surprised at all that the market doesn't seem to have much of a reaction here yet? I should say that my reading of markets is not flawless at all, but it does not surprise.

I mean, this is part of a pattern of actions over the last several months. that are designed to put pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. Just one more thing, really, and the markets are looking past it, I think. And you think that's warranted? I think it's warranted. I do think there's a distinction to be made between the chair and efforts to fire the chair, which have not preceded, of course, and a governor. And so this is just one vote.

on the FOMC, and I think it's warranted on the market's part to wait and see, really, is what the markets may be doing. How challenging do you think this environment is for the Fed, where, of course, we had those labor revisions in the last report, but a lot of the signals in the overall economy still seem to be running strong. Yep, as Rick pointed out just before the break, of we had some interesting good numbers today and in capital goods orders. So it's a mixed picture, and I have said that we could overreact to that one labor report,

and who knows what will come early in September and the next one. There's more data to come, and I think the committee correctly is going to wait to see what the total data picture looks like in the middle of September. Okay. Your sense that perhaps a cut could be warranted here? I think a cut is worthy of consideration. I think it's possible that the markets are overinterpreting what Jay Powell said in Jackson Hole. I think he simply widened his options and said that a cut in the near term could be considered based on recent data. but I don't think it was a commitment in any sense. He can't commit the committee at this stage anyway.

I just think he basically suggested that the committee might consider that. Very conditional, John. Yeah. Mark is hearing what they want to hear? Never. Dennis Lockhart, appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you, John.

Well, MongoDB and Octa earnings are out. Steve Kovac has numbers for both. Steve. Hey there, John. Let's start with MongoDB, because shares are just absolutely soaring here on a monster beat on these earnings. EPS coming in at a dollar adjusted street wanted to see 66 cents. That's a huge beat there. And there's also a beat here on revenue. 591 million. Street was looking for 556.3 million. And also their guidance is well above expectations here for the Q3 and for the rest

of the year. Let's move over to Octa, though. That was also a beat. And we're seeing shares go up modestly here about 4 percent now. EPS is a beat at 91 cents adjusted. Street wanted to see 84 cents. Revenue, a beat, $728 million. Street was looking for $711.8 million. Also, the revenue guide, pretty decent here, looking at $728 to $730 million for Q3. Street wanted, that's above expectations of $723 million. And by the way, don't miss money movers tomorrow. Octo CEO Todd McKinnon will be on talking over these results there, John.

Oh, for sure. 4%'s pretty good, just not after your red MongoDB. Not 20%. Yeah, there you go. Steve, thanks. Well, small caps, significantly outperforming the broader market since Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Up next, we'll discuss whether this is the long-anticipated breakout for the Russell 2000. Plus, we're just moments away from apparel maker PVH's earnings and what they could say about consumer spending.

We're going to bring you those results when overtime returns in two minutes. Small caps outperforming the market after Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech on Friday, the Russell 2000, also besting the S&P over the past month and the entire third quarter, too. So is this the breakout investors have been waiting for in small caps? Let's bring in Jill Carey Hall from Bank of America. Jill, does this have legs here, or is it just based on hopes of a rate cut sooner than later? Right. That's the big question investors have been asking.

And we had been cautious on small caps for a while, but at least near term, we think the Russell's likely to outperform, at least through September if we do see likelihood of a Fed cut. And, you know, that's what Powell signaled as a greater likelihood in the speech last week. So the Russell 2000 has been extremely sensitive to interest rate expectations in the Fed over the last year or two. The stocks in the index have a, you know, a lot of rate sensitivity, a high amount of refinancing risk, lots of leverage. So Fed cuts are good for small caps. So I think near term, the index is likely to outperform. But beyond September, I think a lot will depend on the earnings backdrop because that's been the other factor that's held back small caps is they've been stuck in this profits

recession. And they finally just got out of that in second quarter, but a year later than expected. So I think, you know, the. How much does it depend on how much that? rate cut, assuming we get it, is needed, right? The Fed keeps saying, well, you know, we're watching the data. We want to see how necessary this is. It seems like the market's perhaps hoping for a rate cut that isn't needed too badly, but maybe just badly enough. What if the data shows, boy, we really need a rate cut here. Will those conditions hurt small caps more, or will the rate

cut help them more? Right. Well, I think the overall macro backdrop is important because, you know, One of the reasons small caps and profits have been stuck in this environment is that we've been in a manufacturing recession much longer than expected. You know, some of the macro data is going to be in focus if the data is weak and investors think that there's risk of a recession, not our base case, but, you know, weaker macro data would be a negative to small caps. I think the, you know, news on tariffs will continue to be important because we haven't seen tariffs impact. you know, pricing, inflation, and, you know, corporate profits as much as perhaps was expected so far, but, you know, this still may take time to flow through, and small caps have much thinner margins than larger stocks. So, you know, earning season is winding down right now, but once we get into October, we're going to, you know, start another earning season where,

you know, we'll get a better sense on tariffs, on top line trends, which have still been a bit week for small caps. But as of right now, consensus is expecting a big pickup for profits growth in the second half. So we'll see if revision trends kind of bottom out and stay supportive of that. Jill, what about the next jobs report? How important is that? Well, I think that's going to help sort of confirm or refute the market expectation around the September rate cut. Our economists are still expecting that the Fed could remain on hold in September. But, you know, the doveist speech by Powell on Friday obviously raised the risk that we do see that that cut in September. So, you know, I think all eyes are now on the jobs report on next Friday for whether

that, that, you know, sort of confirms the need for a September cut. And beyond that, then it's a question of how quickly or how much the Fed will cut since, as you mentioned, you know, each rate cut becomes incrementally positive for small cops and helping mitigate some of the refinancing risk. But, you know, on the other hand, as you mentioned, the economic backdrop, if it deteriorates too much, then it's going to be hard for small caps to really sustainably get out of this profits recession that they've been in for several years now. Indeed. Jill Carey Hall from Bank of America. Thank you. Well, those PVH earnings are out. Courtney Reagan has the numbers, court. Hi, Johns. It looks like a beat for the top and the bottom line for PVH, putting up earnings per share of $2.50. So it's two cents adjusted. The street was looking for $2.01. Revenues coming in at $2.17 billion. The street was looking for $2.12. So that is a total increase of 4% for revenues year over year, both above consensus and the company's own expectations. Tommy Hilfiger's revenues up 4%. Calvin Klein, up 5%. Direct-to-consumer up 4% for revenues and wholesale was up about 6%. Gross margin. All right. also coming in slightly better than expected at 57.7%. The street was looking for 57 flat. It eased down, though, from last year, and the company calls out several things for that,

a promotional environment. The transition of previously licensed to in-house, channel mix, tariffs, higher freight costs, and discounts for delivery. Now, we did speak with CEO Stefan Larson briefly, and he said, look, PVH is raising its revenue guidance slightly to up low single digits compared to its flat previous expectation. Also earnings per share up. earnings for share rather reaffirmed. And Larson told me, quote, PVH is underway for both brands, Tommy Lviger and Calvin Klein, to get back to growth for the full year of 2025, noting that reaffirmation of earnings guidance,

despite the effective tariff rate doubling. He also noted 70% of the business is international, 30% in the U.S., and said for North America, we don't know how the customer is going to respond when it comes to tariffs, but PVH, when PBH offers its iconic products with innovation, like underwear and denim, that's the sweet spot where we really see the customer convert. Shares are higher here after results, but we won't get that earnings call until tomorrow morning. John, back over to you. All right, yeah, 3%.

Courtney, thank you. Up next, Mike Santoli is going to look at what's driving the recent breakout by Google Parent Alphabet and whether that rally has legs. Plus, Echo Star shares soaring sky high after making a $23 billion deal with AT&T for Spectrum. Details when overtime returns. Welcome back to overtime. Shares of Echo Star searching 70% after AT&T agreed to buy wireless spectrum for $23 billion in cash. The deal will add 50 megahertz mid-band and low-band spectrum to AT&T's network and cover more than 400 markets across the country.

AT&T CEO John Stanky sees the deal accelerating growth. I feel like this is the last building. block from an asset perspective to really have us in a position to be the best in the industry. And we're really excited about it because it's going to accelerate our growth. It's going to dramatically improve service. It's going to be good for consumers because it's going to take fallow spectrum that hasn't been in service and move it out there pretty quickly. And we think this is a win-win all the way around, not only for our company, but for consumers.

Echo Star stock, still moving higher after hour. Semaphore reporting moments ago that Elon Musk's Starlink and T-Mobile have expressed interest in some Echo Star Spectrum as well. Well, Google Parent Alphabet making a notable move today, clawing back lost ground, breaking out from recent lows. Is this a breakout that investors can bet on? Let's bring in the market's commentator, Mike Santoli, to break down the ABCs of Alphabet. Yeah, John, it's I guess perhaps going up in the face of some skeptics, Alphabet shares hesitating on the day, but still holding that breakout. This is a two-year look, and you see it's just slightly higher than that turn of the year high that we had a little while ago. Coming out of that trough, you know, back when it was down there, I was fond of saying, look, the market loves Netflix and Tesla, but it doesn't really want to pay up for YouTube and Waymo inside of Alphabet. Maybe that has changed here. Take a look at it relative to Microsoft.

The latter actually has been on a bit of a skid over the last few weeks since its earnings report. Similar total move for either, either of these stocks. But you see Alphabet, Google just having pulled ahead slightly. And then valuation, probably a big part of this story. Alphabet just became by far the cheapest of the Mag 7, the Mega Cap tech group that seems to be driven by a lot of these AI hopes. Take a look here. Forward P.E. of Alphabet. It got pretty much to its historic lows.

recently, and it's just perked up from there. It's not around 20, but it is still at about a 10% discount to the S&P 500 as a whole. And then you have stocks like Microsoft, which is up, you know, in the low 30s in terms of a P.E. Obviously, we know about risk, potential risk to the core search business as AI builds out. But for now, anyway, it's interesting to me how within the Mag 7, there's rotation. These stocks take turns leading and lagging. This is like the blue hour before we get the rising of invidia earnings in overtime tomorrow. And that's the AI hope side of the spectrum. It seems to me, Mike, like Google Parent Alphabet,

has been suppressed for a while by AI fears. And I would also put Apple and maybe even Amazon in that category after this past quarter's earnings saw the cloud growth being a little less by comparison to Microsoft and to Google than some people had hoped. I wonder if you're seeing an AI fear dimension in some of the stock moves here. Yes, it has definitely developed.

It's restrained some of those stocks, the ones you mentioned. Now, in a broad sense, the market has been willing to give credit that a lot of this heavy spending by the Microsofts and the Alphabets and the Amazons is ultimately going to be redeemed,

but it might be looking a little bit less like everybody wins, a little bit less like a positive sum game, ultimately. And with Alphabet in particular, You know, it's gone through these bouts of meeting with investor skepticism about its capital allocation. You know, this happened, you know, in the past as well. The other bets, a lot of impatience on the street at times around that. And now I think you're in this period where I think people felt as if at the low valuations, it priced in a pretty grim scenario for the core search and advertising business for Alphabet.

So maybe all you're doing is getting that back. Again, it's still trading at a discount to the market. So it's not as if everyone's saying that it's going to be up, up, in a way with AI for Google. Yeah, lots of people got other bets now. Michael will see it again in just a bit. That's right. Well, time for a CNBC News update with Julia Borsten. Julia.

Hi, John. Canada and Germany said today they will work together on defense and critical minerals. The partnership comes as both countries have been targets of President Trump's tariffs. According to Politico, the country's economic ministers are set to sign an agreement that will focus on developing lithium and other wearer earths to compete against. China. The Transportation Department said today that it's canceling $175 million for California's high-speed rail plan. The move follows the administration's cancellation of $4 billion in grants toward the project in July, which California sued over, arguing the decision was illegal. And Kroger is cutting nearly 1,000 of its corporate employees to cut costs. Bloomberg reporting

in a staff memo today, the grocer's interim CEO said the company was reorganized. and the money saved would go towards lowering prices in creating more store-level positions. The decision comes after the U.S. government blocked Kroger's proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Back over to you. Julia, thank you. Up next, bespoke's Paul Hickey on whether this market rally is healthy or a bit overstretched. Plus, fast money's guy Adami is going to tell us how to trade shares of Eli Lilly, which are surging after its experimental weight loss pill, took another big step toward hitting the market.

We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Major averages, all closing in the green, bouncing back from losses early in the trading session. Investors shaking off President Trump's move to fire Fed Governor Liser Cook. And let's get a check on some of the overtime earnings movers. MongoDB shares rallying 23% on a profit and revenue beat, strong third quarter and full year guidance as well. Octa fractionally higher on a top and bottom line beat. and box shares are volatile in overtime.

The company reporting better than expected earnings, but issuing a disappointing full-year outlook at the moment up 2%. Let's take a look at this chart. There have been 22 stocks in the S&P 500 that are negative over the past decade, names like Walgreens, Viatris, PG&E, and Biogen. But since the start of August, that basket is up nearly 7% on average. This is another sign of the long-awaited rotation by investors. Joining me now is Paul Hickey, bespoke co-founder.

Paul, what should we make of this? Well, if you're having a good August, you've had a miserable decade. I guess that's what you can say, John. But we've been, more broadly speaking, just the laggards, whether you look at year-to-date, you know, during the month of July or over the last 10 years, like you just cited, those stocks have seen some increased attention in August and they've outperformed. And that kind of rotation is healthy to see in the market. It indicates, like, said, a broadening of the rally. And you can't just have the same names going up and up and up nonstop. You have to have, you know, some changing of the guard, so to speak, over time.

And I think last Friday, what we saw in the rally following Jackson Hole speech by Powell was an incredibly strong breath reading in the Russell 2000, one of the strongest single-day breath readings in the last 15 years. and those historically have been very positive for forward returns going forward in the small cap space. Yeah, but that worries me a little, Paul, in that, I mean, if there's some bargain bin rating happening here, people just may be buying some stuff that hasn't performed too well because it's cheap on hopes that it'll do better. I mean, might that be a reason why this small cap rally won't last? Well, no, I think as far as the small caps, when you see such a broad rally there, I think that's just a sign that, you know, what we saw with Powell is we didn't see a big move higher in long-term rates. So when the Fed cut

rates last fall, we saw long-term rates go up, which was very negative for small caps. People expecting that to happen again this time. The Fed hasn't cut rates yet, but just the signal of rate cuts didn't push the long end of the curve higher. And I think that's something we can take encouragement from. And even today, when you had the controversy over the way Trump announced the firing of Cook, the long end of the curve really didn't respond much. So I think in that respect, that's a positive signal for the market. And what you see is the home builder's been doing really well. And that suggests more hopes that rates will stay contained, which would be great for the broader market and not just the mega caps. What about Nvidia as a sign for the overall

market? I mean, whatever their results are, clearly people have big expectations for Nvidia, because of how well it's performed up to this point. Even on strong earnings and strong guidance, sometimes the stock goes up initially, sometimes it goes down. How should investors interpret the way those results are received, however good they happen to be? Yeah, so we talked about this last quarter when they reported. Invitya had a record of reporting these great results and selling off on the news. Last quarter's earnings report, the stock, you know, performed well and kept going from there. And that was a sign that investors figured that year-long consolidation period was over. Now we're up 40 percent since that last earnings report. So expectations,

like you said, are high. I think if you see a subdued reaction to NVIDIA, that would be more positive for the broadening out rally, whereas if we get NVIDIA do rally and then continue going from there, it's going to suck some of the oxygen out of the room for the rest of these stocks. So it's positive for the broadening out rally if the reaction is subdued. negative for everybody. Right. I think so. I think you could say that you don't want to see NVIDIA have poor results and fall sharply, but you know, a subdued reaction, we have high expectations.

The trend this earning season is for stocks to not necessarily react real positive, even to strong results. So I think in NVIDIA's case, it would just be a continuation of that trend. Interesting. Paul Hickey from Bespoke. Thank you. Thanks, John. Well, Boeing shares taking off after announcing a big plane order from Korean Air. Up next, Fast Money's Guy Adami on whether this stock can keep soaring after a more than 30% gain year-to-date. And the countdown is on to, we were just talking about it,

NVIDIA's earnings after the bell in overtime tomorrow. A top analyst tells us what he's expecting and how to trade the stock ahead of those numbers coming up on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. Brown Foreman shares dropping. Let's see, almost 4% after the maker of Jack Daniels and other major whiskey brands announced 30-year veteran CFO Leanne Cunningham will retire next May. The stock now down more than 20% this year as it struggles to adapt to tariff pressure and changing consumer tastes. Brown Foreman reports earnings before the bell on Thursday. Well, Eli Lilly is among the top winners in the S&P 500 today. The stock's tracking for its best day since April 17th. The company's experimental weight loss drug cleared

another late stage trial, paving the way for approval. Shares are still down for the year. So should investors buy, let's ask, Fast Money Trader and CNBC contributor, Guy Adami, Guy? So excited, John, how are you? It's so excited to be here. Me and you, baby, let's go. You're excited about the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey news, aren't you? No, no.

You know, when I was a kid, my favorite baseball player, the great Joe DiMaggio, married Marilyn Monroe. You probably don't remember that happening. I'm sure you've read about it. But for me, I remember sitting by the radio. That was huge news, and now people are saying this, Taylor Swift, it pales in comparison to what Joe D. did back in the day. Okay. All right.

I'll take it. I don't remember that, but I've seen lots of pictures of both of them. So tell me about Eli, Lily, and what you think of that. Well, the news today was good. Listen, bouncing off the lows that we saw a couple weeks ago, which makes sense. The problem that I have now, I think the pendulum has swung, terms of nobody caring about valuation. By the way, that was a great Brian Sullivan walking behind

me. Now, people starting to focus on valuation. And I think they should be focused on it. I think it's a great company. I think they've been rewarded handsomely for what they've done. But I also think that valuation is going to start to be a concern. So in my opinion, Eli Lilly was everybody's darling for a while. I think the bloom is a little off the rose. I think this is a bounce to be selling into, not buying into. Okay, DiMaggio and Marilyn Monroe married in January 54. I have trouble imagining that you are that well preserved. But okay, all right.

When you're flying to the Kelsey Swift wedding, it might be in a Boeing plane. And that Boeing stock is a top performer in the Dow today after the company announced plans to sell 103 airplanes to Korean Air for $36 billion. So how do you trade the stock guy? I think you stay with it. If you watch Fast Money, which I know you do, I know you're an avid viewer. we play this acronym game where we create a word out of letters associated with stocks. And the B and Tim Seymour's Bland is Boeing.

And I know Stephanie links on your show a lot. Her biggest pick, I think, last year into this year was Boeing. And I think very quietly, you've had this stealth rally that not enough people are paying attention to. I think the cash flow story is back intact. And if you go back, I know you have a crack staff back there. 262 was a level back, I think, in December of 23 and again in 2021, where we saw, sort of topped out. And into earnings in October, I think it's just going to do this levitation up there. You know, in the absence of bad news, which God willing, we're going to continue to

have, I think this is a stock that's just going to continue to work for you. So despite the fact that it's had a fantastic move, I think there's more move to the upside left into earnings in October. 262 is the level I'm looking for. All right. Well, speaking to moves to the upside crowd strike sent to report earnings tomorrow after the bail. That stock, believe it or not, has more than doubled off of those lows from the really difficult news last year. Is this a buying opportunity based on what you've seen with the stock? It's hard for me to say that. I mean, 90 times next year's numbers, it has pulled back.

It had a heroic move off that news. I mean, they should be, you know, the Harvard Business Review will do a study on crisis management. I think Crowdstrike did an extraordinary job, and they got rewarded for it as well. My problem is valuation, and there's an uptrend line that I still think we have to sort of visit, and it's about $20, $25 away on the downside. So if you've been sitting on the sidelines and Crowdstrike waiting for an opportunity, my instincts suggest you might get it tomorrow in the form of earning. So I would be waiting here.

All right, waiting like little guy by that radio. You know, it's funny you say that because that's what I was called as a young lad. Little guy, my aunts and uncles, they all call me little guy. My old man was guy. I was a little guy. The surviving aunts and uncles that I have, you can do the math. they're getting up there in years, they still call me the little guy to this day, despite my advanced age and size.

But they're the only ones who get to do that. Guy Adami. No, John, you can do it. I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. All right. Catch you later on Fast Money.

With the rest of the traders 5 p.m. right after overtime. Up next, Mike Santoli breaks down the latest consumer confidence report. Some cracks in the labor market that might be forming. Plus, Invidia shares rallying roughly 80% since late April. Coming up, we're going to discuss whether. the tomorrow's earnings from the AI darling could be a sell-the-news event for the stock. Be right back.

Welcome back to overtime. Oklo shares popping 4% after Bank of America initiated the nuclear power tech company with a buy rating saying it's well positioned to meet AI energy demands. The analyst there putting a $92 price target on the stock, that implies an upside of about 30%. And turning back now to the economy, are there cracks in the labor market. The latest consumer confidence data reveals fresh evidence that jobs are hard to get. Mike Santoli, crunching the numbers. Mike? Yeah, John, this is known as the labor market differential within the conference sports consumer confidence study. It basically

says how many people say jobs are plentiful? You subtract from that. The people who say jobs are hard to get. Survey's been happening for decades. And you see, it's definitely on the down swing here. It's still above zero. So there's still a sort of net number of people saying that jobs are plentiful rather than hard to get. But you see these steep drops that's leading into recessions in the past. We're not down there quite yet, but sometimes doesn't give you much of an early warning system. So this, along with the Joltz report, along with the continuing unemployment claims, are this mosaic of data that says we have a softening labor market. Yes, supply is down to labor supply. And also I want to point out how bad things were in the 2010.

It's just a standoff in the labor market. It felt really bad, even though technically we were out of recession. So not there yet. One other. little straw in the wind, I would point out, is the stock of Sintas. This is a workplace uniform, another workplace products company. One of the strongest stocks in recent decades kind of started to roll over and lose momentum here. And, you know, it's maybe an indicator of demand among small and mid-sized businesses. I'm also looking at the payroll processors have similarly weakened up there. So just more clues below the headline data points. Kind of a weird left-field question for you, Mike, which I know is your favorite kind.

In that survey, the job differential, are they only asking people who are actually looking for jobs or is it general perception among the population or the workforce on what the state of job availability is? No, I'm pretty sure they asked the whole pool of respondents, basically. So I think that's almost kind of interesting because there are times when that perception is, well, I'm saying help wanted signs everywhere or something like that. So it's not just among the unemployed or people who are looking to change jobs. It does seem like a time now when people who don't. have jobs are finding it more difficult to find them and therefore the situation could perhaps be a little worse than even a survey like that might indicate? It could. Although I also feel as if these reports that it's hard for let's say new college

grads to find work and maybe the AI impact that we're seeing trying to be quantified, it also gets in people's heads and so they perceive that it is tough but you're right. I mean right now people aren't voluntarily leaving jobs as much because their perception is or their reality is, it doesn't seem like it's as fruitful to look for something new. All right. Great insight as always. Mike, thanks. Well, Invidia, have we mentioned it?

Headlining a huge hour of earnings tomorrow here on overtime. Up next, the top analyst is going to tell us how to trade the stock ahead of and maybe even after those results. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Well, let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Well, there's no macro data on the calendar, but several big names reporting earnings after the bell. Invidias, the giant investors are anxiously awaiting, but will also break down numbers from some enterprise data and infrastructure names. Snowflake, NetApp, CrowdStrike, and Pure Storage.

Plus, we will hear exclusively from Pure Storage CEO, Charlie Giancarlo, before he dials into the call with analysts. Well, as I mentioned, Nvidia earnings on deck, less than 24 hours from getting Q2 numbers, where the latest option, data implies about a 6% move in the stock after earnings, according to Reuters. Joining me now is Aaron Rakers, equity analyst at Wells Fargo. He's got an overweight rating and a $220 price target on NVIDIA. Aaron, what's it going to take to get this stock to move up that 6% you think? And how do the China restrictions and some of the softening of those factor in? Yeah, thanks, John, for having me.

So, you know, we like the NVIDIA story. So I think as we look at this, it's all about the durability of demand, the visibility they see going forward. Obviously, the China discussion is front and center, given all the news and the flow around the H20. And I think on that China debate is, you know, what are they seeing in the China customer base? Are the halts in China that have been widely reported, you know, taking effect? And then I think over time, you know, where do we go beyond the H20? Do we have a B-20, a B-30, and successive generations that they expect to sell into that important market? As a reminder, that was $8 billion of a headwind this last quarter.

And, you know, I think the expectation is that starts to come back, you know, over these next couple of quarters and certainly into next calendar year. How much of that China benefit is already priced in, given how the stock has risen after the Trump administration eased up? Yeah, I think from a multiple basis we're comfortable on this name. think this is obviously a platform story, hard to compete with the breadth and depth of their product portfolio. So trading at, you know, a kind of mid to high 20 multiple on our calendar 27 estimates still looks attractive to us. I think as we look forward, you know, we have seen estimates move higher. We've seen, you know, for example, calendar 26 estimates have moved up by about $9 billion plus on a revenue basis. So I think some of this is getting factored in.

I think it's just addressing those demand dynamics that they see going forward and the sustainability of this demand as we look into calendar, calendar 26 at this point. Given what we heard over the rest of earning season previous to this from the hyperscalers talking Amazon, Microsoft, Google about their infrastructure plans and really particularly from AWS about their supply constraints, what kind of commentary could we get from NVIDIA that sheds light on what they're prepared to deliver there and what we're seeing from demand that could make a difference in incrementally inform investors. Yeah, I think from an NVIDIA perspective, important remember, they only guide one quarter out.

So they're not going to have a defined guide looking forward. So the qualitative commentary comes to that visibility shaping. When do they see or how do they see the supply dynamics playing out? Can we read into some of the metrics around what they're seeing on inventory builds? you know also purchase commitments as a forward indicator looking beyond just this current quarter you know to your point cloud cap x when we look in aggregate i mean we saw about a 25 percent increase in cloud cap x for the calendar 26 estimates so now the debate starts to shift out even end to 27 and you know i think that's that's where just the kind of the the demand profile

looking out beyond this next quarter is going to be important and you get into sovereign AI, enterprise AI adoption around agentic, and just the longer tail opportunities for NVIDIA going forward, I think, is what people would really be focused on. Expect to hear anything about competition? Yeah, I mean, A&D is highly debated, right? Also, you know, internal silicon efforts at the hyperscalers. I think that will be a topic of discussion. But, you know, I think we're going to come out of this earnings spring, continuing to view

NVIDIA as the dominant provider of these GPUs. And again, as I mentioned, like sovereign AI and some of these enterprise. opportunities are still largely in front of us. All right. Aaron Rakers, thank you. Thank you. Now, before we go, let's get another check on shares of MongoDB, soaring in overtime, still up about 23% after beating Wall Street's earnings estimates and issuing strong guidance as well. It was a day where all the major averages were in the green, the Dow, up about 135 points. That's going to do it for overtime. Fast money starts right now. Thank you.