Closing Bell - Manifest Space: Quadrupling U.S. Spy Satellites with NRO Director Chris Scolese 5/25/23

Episode Date: May 25, 2023

As commercial space companies accelerate innovation into the final frontier, government agencies are looking to take greater advantage of the private sector. The National Reconnaissance Office, the division operating the U.S. government’s network of spy satellites, is the latest eager to expand its partnership. NRO Director Chris Scolese made headlines at the 2023 Space Symposium when he announced that the agency plans to quadruple the number of NRO satellites on orbit in the next decade—and now with just one week before the agency’s Tech Forum, commercial space stands to benefit. Morgan sits down with Dr. Scolese in a rare one-on-one interview to discuss public-private partnerships, innovation and more. For more Manifest Space, listen and follow here: https://link.chtbl.com/manifestspace

As commercial space companies have proliferated and achieved new technological milestones, the U.S. government has moved to take greater advantage of the market and get more creative in how it works with industry. That's the case for the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office, the secretive agency overseeing America's space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, or, in layman's terms, the country's extensive network of spy satellites. Director Chris Scalise plans to quadruple the number of satellites the NRO has on orbit over the next decade. It's really been a combination of our partnerships with industry, the advancement

of technology, and the coincident reduction in cost of all of those systems. And at the same time, it's helped to improve our reliability so that we can achieve more with more capability at a lower cost. In a rare one-on-one interview, Dr. Scalise talks commercial partnerships, innovation ahead of the NRO's upcoming tech forum, and how, to channel its own motto, the classified intelligence agency goes above and beyond. I'm Morgan Brennan, and this is Manifest Space. The NRO has been around for a little bit more than 60 years, and our function is to provide the intelligence, surveillance surveillance reconnaissance from space so that we can provide

information to national leaders, analysts, policymakers, all the way to the warfighter and the individuals who are working natural disasters. We want to get them the information as quickly as possible in areas that are very difficult to get by other means. So in terms of space as a warfighting domain, a contested domain, what has that meant in terms of how you were thinking about future capabilities and what the mission of the NRO has evolved to become? So the mission really hasn't changed. We still need to provide that information that can only be obtained from space to look into denied areas. But what has changed is some of the ways that we have to work. As you said, the space domain has become essentially a warfighting domain. It's become contested. And as a result, we've had to adjust. One of the ways that

we've adjusted is we've implemented a more proliferated architecture that is putting more satellites up there so that it makes it much more difficult for anybody that wants to do us harm or deny us our ability to see, hear, or observe. It makes it much more difficult for them to deal with that. At the same time, it adds capability so that we can provide more information more quickly to whoever the user is. So there's a benefit, a plus minus to this relationship. And then, of course, the way we operate in space is a little bit different. Our partnerships are absolutely critical. And in this domain, our relationship with Space Command and Space Force is absolutely critical to gain an understanding of what's happening in space and what we need to do as

we operate in space. And I want to get into more of that relationship and what that looks like in just a moment here. But at the Space Symposium rather recently, you did disclose that you're expecting to quadruple the number of satellites currently on orbit over the next decade. How do you do that? What does that mix look like? So really it comes about

because technology has really advanced. We've been part of it. Industry has been part of it, academia. And that's reduced the cost of launch. It's much, much less expensive to get into space. And it's resulted in more commodity spacecraft, if you will, that we can buy off of a production line, which has really reduced the cost. And then if you marry those with the sensors that are needed to acquire the information, you can really then go off and expand your architecture in a very affordable way. So it's really been a combination of our partnerships with industry,

the advancement of technology, and the coincident reduction in cost of all of those systems. And at the same time, it's helped to improve our reliability so that we can achieve more with more capability at a lower cost. So how does that interaction with private industry actually work? Is it situations where you go to companies and you say, and you go to industry and you say, these are the type of capabilities we're looking for, and you put out requests for proposals, and the contracting process that traditionally happens continues to happen? Or are there times where now you see companies developing capabilities and saying, we have this, and the interaction is evolving and looks different. You described it really very well, Morgan. In fact, that's what we do do.

There are some things where we're doing something that is so unique and so advanced that we really have to go out with an RFP and work with industry and others in order to achieve it. But we also recognize that there are capabilities out there that they've developed that we can fully rely on. And it comes in multiple different varieties. As we talked about earlier, if they have a spacecraft or a sensor that we can use and we can just buy, we do. At the same time, we have gone off and recognized that there are companies that are already taking images or developed radar satellites that we can just go off and buy the data from them and provide that as a capability so that we don't have to go off and develop those capabilities or have to go off and duplicate activities that we can reliably get from

industry. Yeah, I think whether it was Russia gearing up to invade Ukraine last year and all of the commercial satellite imagery that was being released through that process that was so counter to the rhetoric we were seeing come out of Russia, or even more recently, some of the images and intel that have come out of commercial companies where that so-called Chinese spy balloon was concerned and where it originated and what that meant in terms of wind currents and how it came to the U.S. and over the U.S., it really shines a light on the role that commercial space is now playing in terms of its interaction with national security. Absolutely. And the marriage of the two sets of capabilities. And then if you throw in our international partners as well, you really get a, you know,

a multiplication factor there that allows you to do more and to do it more efficiently as we do it with our partners. So what does that mean in terms of keeping all of these assets safe? I mean, you talked about more resilient architecture. What are some of the threats that are out there to what we have in place? And how do you continue to move to secure and counter those threats? Well, proliferation is one aspect of it. The other is trying to establish norms of operation in space. And we're all working together. I would say all the responsible space organizations really want to go off and understand what we're going to do and what we're doing so that you have a sense of whether something is an aggressive act or whether it's just what you need

to do in order to accomplish whatever mission it is that you're doing. So establishing norms, and we're working together across the space community to do that. That's a national effort. It's not just an NRO or a Space Force or a Space Command or a NASA or you fill in the blank. We're all working together to understand that. And then it's to go off and, you know, and develop, you know, strategies and capabilities that allow us to be to be more resilient to the types of threats that are out there. I mean, I think most people are aware of the missiles that can go off the ASATs that can destroy a satellite that we've seen Russia and China and other countries go off and develop. So we have to develop means and methods to go off and develop. So we have to develop means and methods

to go off and do that. And we're working that with our partners and we're working that as we try and develop norms of operation. You're holding a tech forum in the coming weeks. And to the extent that you can disclose, what are you thinking about in terms of future

technologies and capabilities? I mean, we see it within the business community and on Wall Street, there's a big focus, for example, on generative AI. I mean, is that something that's in the mix? Are there other types of new cutting edge technologies that you're closely watching or looking to integrate? Absolutely. So at the tech forum, we look for a bunch of different things. You know, one is new ideas that industry or academia may have that could be applied here, and that could be a tool or a technique that they're using in a totally different field that might allow us to do things differently, more efficiently. We're also looking to advance things. You mentioned artificial intelligence and machine

learning. That's absolutely part of what we do. We're using it today, but we know it has to advance. We know that industry and academia are advancing it even further to allow us to do things. And then we want to go off and look at some technologies that can really offer us some significant capabilities out there in the future. And it's not entirely clear as to how they'll benefit us, but we know that they will. So one example that's far out there is quantum sensing and quantum communications. If we can do that, it makes it much more difficult to hide things because you're operating at the fundamental levels of physics.

It allows us to have communications in much more reliable ways that are much harder to break into, so your encryption is much better. So it's looking at that whole range of things from what do you have that can really change the way we do things, to what can we work on together or adapt, like artificial intelligence and machine learning, and where way we do things to what can we, you know, work on together or adapt like artificial intelligence and machine learning? And where do we have to go in the future so that we can really advance the state of the art? That's fascinating. In terms of, I'm going to nerd out a

little bit here, but in terms of this idea of quantum, I mean, is this, I feel like we've been talking about, you know, these types of applications for a long time. Are we really finally close to the cusp of quantum becoming a real-time, real-world reality? Well, I mean, close all depends on what you mean by close, of course. You know, I think quantum communication we're probably, you know, much closer to. There have been demonstrations. You know, that's probably something that you can imagine in the next five to 10 years as being, you know, more of a reality. Quantum sensing is further out. It requires a lot more work. Almost anything that we're doing in the sensing area is large. And we have to get that down to something that

you could put in space. And that's not going to be a trivial matter. But yeah, I think we're, you know, we're making a lot of progress. That's fascinating. All right. So let's talk about something that's maybe a little more near term then. You mentioned the fact that you collaborate with other agencies and services and whatnot. I've been getting a lot of attention for the work, the collaboration you're doing with the Space Force, for example, with this ground moving target indicator program, I believe it's called Long Range Kill Chains in the new budget request. I guess just walk me through that partnership and whether it represents a new type of collaboration that could really, truly, potentially get new technologies and capabilities out the door and into the hands of the warfighter more quickly.

Well, it's not a new collaboration. We've been working together for years, even before the Space Force was created. We were working closely together. We're going to be launching a joint mission here this summer called Silent Parker that's going to improve our understanding of the space domain so that we know what's up there and what they're doing. So we've been working together for four years. That's just one example. Ground Moving Target Indication indication or GMTI is something that, you know, is, it's not new, but it's something that we're working and collaborating on so that we can take the best knowledge and the best capabilities of both organizations as we did with, with Silent Barker and bring that to bear to solve a very difficult problem that exists on the ground that will help our warfighters know where individual targets are

and be able to maintain custody of those over the timeframe that they need. So it's not new, but it's an indication of a maturing of our relationship and just shows that it's getting better and better over time. Understood. Now, I realize that the NRO budget is classified, but there's a lot of focus right now on the trajectory and sort of where we land and also the timing of the fiscal 2024 budget. How closely are you watching the debt ceiling how real is the risk there given the fact that you do interact as much as you do with industry um i guess let's start with the debt ceiling then we'll get to get to what that means for future budgets and crs and

all that kind of stuff well i'll start off by saying you know we've been we've been very fortunate we've been supported throughout the years by the administration and Congress, and we're looking forward to that continuing. available to us to expend or other restrictions that may come from things associated with the debt ceiling would cause us, obviously, concern and have impacts down the road as to our ability to accomplish mission. So yes, we're watching it very closely, but we're confident that everything will work out. And then I guess just in terms of what all of this could mean for when with lawmakers as focuses they are on on the budget more broadly what all this could mean in terms of not only the defense spending bill overall but but also in terms of being able to get packages actually passed and appropriated on time, which, to be

honest, we haven't seen very often in recent years happen. Well, we've been fortunate. I mean, I can only say that, you know, we've had great support and we're looking forward to having that continue. Great. Anything else that I haven't asked you or that we should be keeping in mind in terms of the NRO and in terms of efforts and what you're doing to help keep America safe right now? Well, I think the one thing that I'd like to mention is the fabulous workforce that we have here because everything that we've talked about has really been implemented by the people that are here. We have members of the Space Force, all the military

organizations, plus civilians that are all working here and collaborating with our international partners, our industry partners, our commercial partners, and academia. And they're the ones that really make it happen and are really the ones that deserve the credit for delivering all the capabilities that the NRO delivers. That does it for this episode of Manifest Space. Make sure you never miss a launch by following us wherever you get your podcasts and by watching our coverage on Closing Bell Overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan.