Closing Bell - Manifest Space: Warfighting in the First Commercial Space War with General John “Jay” Raymond 8/15/24

Episode Date: August 15, 2024

The U.S. Space Force was stood up in 2019 as the first new military service in over seventy years. Now, nearly five years since its establishment, the orbital battleground has shifted—towards what General Raymond calls the first commercial space war. Since retiring from active duty in 2022, General Raymond now serves as a senior managing director at Cerberus, and sits on the board of several space startups including Axiom Space and Impulse Space. He joins Morgan Brennan to discuss the risk of nuclear war in space, public-private partnerships and the state of the U.S. Space Force.

The first commercial space war. That's how General Jay Raymond, the former chief of space operations for the U.S. Space Force, characterizes the conflict in Ukraine. In the early 90s with Operation Desert Storm, which some view as the first space war where we took strategic space capabilities and integrated them into theater operations largely for the first time. We saw the advantages that provided. I think others now have seen the advantages that that has provided us as well. So in the case of Ukraine, Ukraine is not a space-faring nation on its own, but it has been able to leverage commercial space capabilities for its advantage. For example, they've been able to leverage Starlink to stay connected across the globe. They've been able to leverage commercial ISR satellites

to be able to have more awareness of the battle space. They've been able to leverage GPS satellites that the whole world can leverage for free. And so we have seen their use of commercial space providing them advantage. And I would have seen their use of commercial space, providing them advantage. And I would say that just as some people view Desert Storm as the first space war, I would suggest that some will view the first, or the Ukraine conflict, as the first commercial space war. When the Space Force was established in 2019, General Raymond served as the new branch's first ever chief.

He retired from active duty in 2022. I'm obviously a little close to it, but I think it'll be looked at in the future as a case study of how to stand up an organization inside of a bureaucracy. We purposely tried to keep it light, lean, agile. You know, all this was done with largely no additional manpower resources or dollar resources at the beginning. We took it all out of height. We formed the team and we ran fast. Now a senior managing director at investment firm Cerberus, he also sits on a number of boards, including startups Axiom Space and Impulse Space. On this episode, the retired four-star general discusses the risk of nuclear war in space, how commercial players are partnering with the Pentagon, and the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity

to stand up the first new branch of the United States military in more than seven decades. I'm Morgan Brennan, and this is Manifest Space. It's an incredibly exciting time to be in the space business. And after serving as the first chief of space operations, I didn't think there was any one job that was going to really fulfill me as my previous job. So I tried to build a portfolio of opportunities. And the first one that I said yes to was Cerberus because I felt it was a way to give back to my old home from the other side of the coin. I interacted with commercial space my whole career.

This was an opportunity to kind of give back from the inverse. I also wanted to be on some boards of directors. I wanted to have a role with education. I wanted to keep my voice in policy. And so I have a few other opportunities that I support as well in a broad portfolio that keeps me busy and keeps me engaged

in the topic that I think is just absolutely critical. How do you engage with commercial space now? Well, first of all, I'd say that commercial space has been really, really important for a number of years. I started out my career as a very young captain, as a commercial space officer for Air Force back in the early 90s. And it has just continued this well. As I looked at all the other service chiefs that I served with, I felt I was very lucky because I had this burgeoning industry, if you will, at my fingertips, if I could figure out how best to leverage it.

And so from the other side of the coin, I help advise commercial industry and help advise on investments that might be important to national security. I want to think about Cerberus. I think about Strata Launch, for example. I know there have been some other potential deals in the news. We won't get into the details around that, but it does seem like investors are understanding more about the criticalness of space as a warfighting domain, this idea of dual use technology, defense tech. I see more money going into the startup ecosystem now than I ever have. And I wonder how you see it. I think I see it. And what I would say is,

I think people realize just how critical, how critical space is to our nation. You know, as we've talked about before, space fuels all of our instruments of national power, whether it be diplomatic, economic, information, or military. It is what I consider a vital national interest. It helps excite our nation's youth to attract them to STEM education. It helps enable global partnerships. And I think people realize that, and they realize just how critical space is as a force multiplier to our nation as well. And so I think there's a lot of opportunities in this space domain.

As I said, I don't think there's a more exciting time to be in the business. And that's why I continue to support after retiring from active duty. You and I sat down when you were actively running the Space Force. We sat down, it was probably about a month, maybe two months after Russia had invaded Ukraine. And we saw very clearly when that invasion happened, the role that space infrastructure plays in modern day conflicts. Lessons learned from that? And how do we see that dynamic continue to evolve as the geopolitical landscape becomes tenser? I think, you know, space has been critical to the United States military for, you know, we've been

involved in it since the 50s. I'd say in the early 90s for, you know, we've been involved in it since the 50s. I'd say in the early 90s with Operation Desert Storm, which some view as the first space war where we took strategic space capabilities and integrated them into theater operations largely for the first time. We saw the advantages that provided. Well, I think others now have seen the advantages that that has provided us as well. So in the case of Ukraine, Ukraine is not a space-faring nation on its own, but it has been able to leverage commercial space capabilities for its advantage. For example, they've been able to leverage Starlink to stay connected across the globe. They've been able to leverage commercial ISR satellites to be able to have

more awareness of the battle space. They've been able to leverage GPS satellites that the whole world can leverage for free. And so we have seen their use of commercial space providing them advantage. And I would say that just as some people view Desert Storm as the first space war. I would suggest that some will view the first or the Ukraine conflict is the first commercial space war. How does that change the way we think about deterrence as a nation? How does it change the way you make sure that space as a domain, as a warfighting domain, is as resilient and protected as possible? I think clearly space can amplify deterrence messaging. It's critical to deterrence. If you look at the foundation of our nation's national military strategy, it's a term, a concept called integrated deterrence, and that's using capabilities across

all domains, all capabilities, plus with our allies and partners to be able to deter conflict. That's the goal of the United States Space Force. It's to deter conflict from beginning or extending into space and to do so from a position of strength. I think, you know, if you look at what the Space Force has been working on for its first five years, it's largely that. It's building allies and partners to be able to, again, we're stronger together to be able to deter conflict and what we'd call safe and unprofessional behavior in the domain. They work very hard to redesign the architecture in space to be more resilient to a potential threat. Again, denying benefit of attack, if you will, using the old deterrence calculus. But I think space is critical to that. I think all domains play into deterrence. It's not just

in the realm of nuclear anymore. And I think space plays a foundational role to deterrence going forward. I mean, speaking of nuclear, just the fact that we've had the reports and the comments surface earlier this year that Russia is developing nuclear weapons for space activity. How new is that? Have we seen that before? Is that something that could actually become a reality? I think it absolutely could become a reality. What I would say is, you know, as we've been talking about, one of the critical reasons why the Space Force was established back in 2019 was to be able to protect and deter against these threats. You know, what started out back in 2007 with a demonstration of a Chinese ASAP blowing up one of their own satellites, has matured into a fuller spectrum of threats. Everything from reverse jamming of GPS and communication satellites

to directed energy capabilities and lasers that can blind or dazzle satellites to satellites that are on orbit that have dual-use purposes. You know, China calls them inspector satellites, but you know, satellites that have a robotic arm that could reach out and, and grab a satellite. And I'll tell you that, you know, my, my astro engineering buddies tell me that satellites don't like to be grabbed. There's also, you know, cyber threats to the domain.

There's direct ascent threats as we talked about with, with direct ascent missiles that as we talked about, with direct ascent missiles that can launch from the ground and blow up satellites. And now it's reported in the press, you know, kind of the far end of that spectrum, a potential nuclear threat to the domain, which would be devastating. When we talk about devastating, what could be the impact of something like that, especially when I think so many people don't realize how much of their daily activities hinge on the infrastructure tied to space? I think just as we rely on space capabilities to fuel our way of war, the U.S. and our allies

and partners use space capabilities to fuel our way of life. We have a saying in space that satellites don't have a mother. It's really hard We have a saying in space that satellites don't have a mother. It's really hard to have a connection to space because you can't see it, you can't touch it, you can't feel it. But there is that strong connection. And most people use space before, you know, many, many times before they've had their first cup of coffee, then they would realize if they get a weather report

that's largely coming from space, if they use their smartphone, they're using space. And the list just goes on and on and on. So if there's a threat to the domain that would interrupt or deny the use of space, it would have a significant impact on the way of life of Americans across the globe. And it'd have an impact on our ability to secure our nation's

security. Is all that infrastructure protected? I mean, how do you protect it? If the risks continue to evolve and become more dynamic, more autonomous, when I think about things like robotics, for example, how do you continue to counter that? I think, as I mentioned, I think the thing the Space Force is doing is a significant first step is to have a more proliferated architecture focused on resilience, to build resilience into the design of that architecture.

So shifting away from small numbers of very large, very exquisite satellites on orbit to a proliferated constellation with many, many satellites in multiple orbits that are cheaper but still operationally relevant and will enable them to take better advantage of commercial industry and to increase the role of our international partners as well. That, again, makes it more resilient and complicates the targeting, if you will, by a potential adversary. The other thing that I would add to that, there's not just one path. We're also working on norms of behavior. What are safe and professional standards for how we operate in the domain and how others should operate in the domain? We're working that closely with our close allies and partners as well. that continues to evolve, perhaps needs to evolve in that respect. I've had a number of

conversations now with folks who say, listen, we're in a new space race. We're in a 21st century space race. It's China. You see it with some of the lunar activities, for example, that are playing out, some of the other types of, some of the commercial money now in China, money that's going in China into commercial space companies that are homegrown there as well. How do you think about that? Is that the right way to frame it? That's the way I look at it. I think clearly we're in a technology race, and space is a critical part of that. I think this next 10 years are going to be really, really important. I think it's a competition that we can't

afford to lose. That's why the work the Space Force is doing, again, in developing our partners, both international partners, commercial partners, partners with the intelligence community and with the interagency is so absolutely critical for our nation. And in some ways, this goes back to this idea of dual-use technology and the role that commercial space here plays in all of this. What does that enable in terms of moving more quickly and perhaps in terms of keeping the taxpayer bill down too, to bring these innovations to life? Well, yes, as I mentioned, as we make this pivot, if you will, from large, very expensive, exquisite capabilities that were great for a domain

that didn't have a threat. They lasted a really, really long time, but they cost a lot of money and they weren't easy to defend. If we make that pivot, I think that provides a lot of opportunities and that now the numbers of satellites are increasing, the cost per satellite goes down because they're cheaper.

They're not built the last 25 years. They're built kind of on an approach, if you will, that launches and then lasts a few years and then gets resupplied. It really changes the business model and allows the United States to manage risk a little differently. You know, if you're going to launch a very, very expensive satellite, that's one of just a handful in orbit, that's really critical for our nation's security. And if you're going to launch it into space and it doesn't work, you don't get a do-over. And so we make sure that those things work the first time, they survive launch, and they operate effectively. If you have a different model that has satellites coming off

of an assembly line, you might be able to take a little bit more risk. One, because the numbers are greater. Two, if something fails, another one's coming off the assembly line right behind it. And three, it doesn't cost, you're not breaking the national treasury. And so this new business model that started out, first with our missile warning, missile tracking redesign, will now progress into other capabilities as well. And I think that's a significant opportunity for commercial industry.

You helped stand up the Space Force. We're coming up on five-year anniversary here. that's a significant opportunity for commercial industry. You helped stand up the Space Force. We're coming up on five year anniversary here. It was one of those ideas that had been floated for quite a while across a couple of administrations. When it finally came to fruition, what did it take to actually establish this branch for the first time in many decades? And how do you think it's performing five years in?

Well, first of all, I would say I was extremely honored to serve as the first chief of space operations. And looking back, I couldn't be more proud of how the organization is doing. I'm obviously a little close to it, but I think it'll be looked at in the future as a case study of how to stand up an organization inside of a bureaucracy. We purposely tried to keep it light, lean, agile. You know, all this was done with largely no additional manpower resources or dollar resources at the beginning. We took it all out of hide. We formed the team and we ran fast. The two biggest challenges I thought we would face would be one that we wouldn't think bold enough. We haven't

done this since 1947. And this is kind of a once in a lifetime opportunity. And we wanted to go big, if you will. And the second risk was that when we did go big, that the bureaucracy might slow us down and say, hey, that's not how we do business. We weren't interested in doing business the way we've always done business. We were interested in doing business that was critical for our nation's security. And I will tell you, I'm really proud of the foundation that was built. And I'm cheering on the sidelines because I think they're doing really good. And I think it's clear without a doubt, and I don't think anybody can question this, that we are much better postured today for the domain that we face and the national security complexity that we face than we were

just five years ago. That's really good to hear. We talked a little bit about Ukraine, but I also wonder, there's a lot of focus right now on everything that's going on in the Middle East, tensions there between Israel and Iran. And again, the role that space plays in a geography like that and how that could be used to potentially keep a tense situation from becoming tenser or vice versa. Yeah, I think space offers our nation one of the most strategic opportunities to maintain the peace. The good thing about space is it's global. And so the same capabilities that you're launching to support operations in Europe or the Middle East can also be used in the Pacific and around the globe because they orbit. And so those capabilities provide our ability to see, our ability to communicate, our ability to target precisely.

And those things are applicable globally. And so you get, although space doesn't come out of petty cash and people say it's expensive, it's a really great deal for our country. And as we make this pivot to a more resilient architecture focused on leveraging commercial industry in greater ways, I think the costs continue to go down, like we've seen with commercial loans, for example. in greater ways. I think the costs continue to go down, like we've seen with commercial launch, for example. And I think the value that that provides the world is very much worth the cost. Is there a certain capability or technology or innovation that you're most excited about right

now? You mentioned a couple of them. I'm really interested in autonomy. I'm also very interested in integration of AI across space capabilities. I think those are two areas that I'm very interested in doing some look at. What could that potentially include or evolve to? Well, you know, on autonomy, it allows us to operate at a speed that, you know, potentially takes humans out of the loop and operates at a speed that I think is going to be necessary to operate in this domain. If you look at, you know, the speed of operations in space, just to stay in space, the satellite has to go 17,500 miles an hour or it's reentering. So the distance and the speed and the numbers of objects in space, the complexity of that domain, I think, require both autonomy and the use of AI.

And finally, the fact that you have had this incredible storied, decorated career, you did transition when you retired from the Space Force into the private sector. Just words of wisdom for anybody else that looks at the possibility of making a similar transition. I think there's a lot of opportunities. And I would say for somebody that has devoted their life of service, there's a way to continue to serve outside of uniform. And I encourage people to do so in multiple ways. I think helping attract nation's youth to service, I think, is important. Helping our economy and businesses is important. Helping provide some thoughts on technologies we just

talked about and what might be important to their old homes, if you will, as they make that transition. It's important. One thing that I wish I would have known more, I wish I would have understood the commercial landscape a little bit greater than I did coming out. I don't think we spend enough time developing our nation's senior military leaders with a robust understanding of industry. We don't operate on a profit and loss, if you will, in the government. And I think having been a little bit more versed in that while I was on active duty would have been helpful to help try to figure out how best to leverage this segment, which

I think is an advantage for our nation. Well, General Jay Raymond, thank you so much. Appreciate the time. It's an honor and a privilege to speak with you. Great to speak with you again. I really appreciate your podcast and all you're doing. That does it for this episode of Manifest Space. Make sure you never miss a launch by following us wherever you get your podcasts and by watching our coverage on Closing Bell Overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan.