Closing Bell - Stocks Sell Off As More AI, Tech Fears Roil Investors; Cursor CEO on New Valuation 11/13/25

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

Stocks sold off today, especially in tech. More fears around the valuations in the AI trade hitting some high-momentum names. One bright spot: health care. Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes breaks down his top picks. Cursor CEO Michael Truell on the company’s latest fundraise and valuation, nearly tripling in just five months. Plus, our Melissa Lee on some popular insurance schemes that offer huge savings on medications – but could put patient lives in danger.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That Belmoxy end of regulation, Bauchin-Lam, bringing the closing belt the New York Stock Exchange, women's Entrepreneurship Day organization doing the honors at the NASDAQ and stocks selling off today. The Dow down more than 800, well, right about 800 points after closing at an all-time high yesterday, S&P 500, down 1.5%. The NASDAQ losing about 2%. The Russell 2,000, off by almost 3. The tech and consumer discretionary, the worst performing sectors, Nvidia and Tesla, the big driver is there. Communication services also down big. Disney, a big drag on the Dow following its earnings this morning. More on that name coming up.

Oil rebounding after a big drop yesterday, and that's helping energy stocks, energy the best performing group today. And crypto, getting crushed. Bitcoin, once again, falling below 100,000, hitting the lowest level since May. That's your scorecard on Wall Street, but winners stay late. Welcome to closing about overtime. I'm John Ford. Morgan Brennan is off today. Ahead, applied materials earnings are due. The stock is taking a hit today along with the rest of semiconductors, but it's still up 35% so far this year. Plus, health care is a bright spot on this down day, and this isn't a recent development. The sector's up 15% in three months, so have you missed out on this group's rebound?

And Cursor, another AI startup generating a big valuation, except this is the one that Jensen Wong says, everybody at NVIDIA uses programming-wise. We're going to talk to Cursar CEO and founder coming up. But for more on today's sell-off, let's get to Sima Modi. Seema. Hey, John, well, optimism around a government shutdown did not last long. The NASDAQ, leading the market sell-off down over 2% and now negative on the week as names in the AI ecosystem traded down.

This has interest rates continue to tick higher. Let's start with those semiconductors because that really saw the brunt of selling. NVIDIA, AMD, arm holdings down between 3 to 6%. High flyers like Palantir and Tesla as investors debate valuations trading down on the day as well, around 6 to 7%. And then stocks that tend to move on momentum like Robin Hood, Coinbase, Sandus. You could see some big losses in today's trade. Bloom Energy, which is working with AI players to beef up power capacity near data centers. That stock down nearly 19%.

Another somber outlook on linear TV from Disney after that media giant delivered mixed results. and that stock traded lower by over 7%. Cisco was an outlier, John, raising his 2026 forecast as customers increasingly rely on the company for its networking gear to connect AI server racks, UBS, raising its price target from $88 to $90 a share. And worth noting, the stock trading near the highs and up 30% so far this year.

New high, it's been 25 years. Cia Modi, thank you. Now to the bond market, Rick Santelli is in Chicago. Rick, Fed Fund futures now pricing in just a 50, percent chance of a rate cut in December. That's down significantly from a few weeks ago or even a few hours ago. Yeah, no, a few weeks ago is pretty much a lock. Let's look at a week to date chart John of December Fed Fund futures. And you can see it deteriorated dramatically today. Today was the day it dropped below 50 briefly. Right now it's hovering at 50

and it's interesting because the downward move of the stock market as it accelerated throughout today actually turn those futures back up just a smidge. And there's a moral to that story that even though the Fed denies it, many investors still believe a nasty stock market draws the attention of a more easing Fed behavioral future. Whether it's true or not, it's always been built in.

Now, when was the last time these futures for Fed funds were at this level? two and a half months ago, early December. Remember, when that price goes down, you are taking the easing percentages down as well. And yes, John, right now it's hovering almost exactly at 50%. We had a very weak 30-year bond auction. Today, we had a not-so-great tenure yesterday. Look at the difference between both ends of the yield curve. Two-year-note yields are up a couple of basis points. 30s, 10s, 20s, they're up much more. It's a curve steepening day, but it really does underscore that supply

and long-dated treasury yields doesn't find the kind of love it did just several months ago. Back to you. All right, Rick Santelli, thank you. Now applied materials earnings are out. The stocks initially down about 1.5, 2%. Christina Parts Nevelas has the numbers. Christina.

Yeah, it's a beat for the quarter. This is Q4 on already lowered estimates. I have to point that out, an analyst did cut their estimates after last quarter. So $2.17 adjusted slightly higher than the 209 that was expected. And $6.8 billion for revenue in the quarter. In regards to Q1 guide, $2.18, 5 cents higher than what the street anticipated on revenues of $6.85 billion. Gross margins, though, for Q4, non-gap gross

margins came in line with expectations, 48.1. There was a line that stood out in the press release to me that this is coming from the CFO, quote, we are preparing applied's operations and service organizations to be ready to support higher demand beginning in the second half. of calendar 2026. So perhaps that has something to do with it, but shares are down about one and a half percent. It seems to be a trend with this company just over the last six quarters, somewhat of a negative reaction to earnings. This is a chip equipment maker, by the way. Yeah, and investors aren't exactly feeling optimistic today, so we'll see how it shakes out through the call. Thanks, Christina. Now, let's get back to today's big sell-off. Speaking of,

what should investors do if a Fed rate cut is no longer a guarantee, and the market it seemed to be on a bit less stable ground. Joining me now is Innovator Capital Management Chief Investment Strategist, Tim Urbanoitz, and City U.S. Equity Strategist, Drew Pettit. Guys, welcome. Drew, good to have you here on set. So with today's action, we're falling back about three weeks on the NASDAQ and S&P, three days on the Dow.

Is this a canary in the coal mine or just a healthy pause that refreshes? I think it's a healthy pause. Like, we got to realize when we were coming into earnings season, we had a lot of good news priced in. When we do a lot of our work, it's fair value-based. It's not about sentiment. That's not how we set price targets. We're at 6,600 at year end, a bull case at 72.

So good news priced in. So when you get good news, not great news, not beat and raise and raise again for next year, it's pretty healthy and normal for investors to take profits. We think that creates some buying opportunities into the end of the year and potentially into 2026. Okay. So, Tim, you think the Fed probably doesn't cut in December? Do stocks fall farther in that case? Well, John, anytime you have a market like we have now where the valuation is so high, it's very sensitive to bad news. And I think today was just investors recalibrating their expectations that you might not see that December cut or maybe not a cut even in January. And this has been our view. We do think that you are going to see the Fed on hold.

We've seen 150 basis points worth of cuts over the last 14 months. This is right about the time where we start to see what those cuts actually do in the economy. What's the impact going to look like? And we've honestly been pretty surprised with how confident the market has been that these cuts are coming. If you look over the last 14 months, we've had core inflation that has really been stuck in this 2.75 to 3 and a quarter range. If you look back to the 1970s, we've had 50 Fed meetings where core inflation is in that range. They've only cut at two of them outside of this current cycle. So the step back in confidence, I think, is warranted.

We don't see bigger problems. We think this is a good thing. But we do need to see those expectations recalibrated. So, Drew, you say you didn't set the targets based on feelings. It was based on the data. We're dealing with less data than usual now as we're just coming out of a government shutdown. How do you factor in the lack of macro data into how perhaps you ought to be recalibrating, if you should, heading into the end.

of the year. Okay, so this only applies to, I'm going to say, like, the left side or like the scientific side of the brain when it comes to macro data. The other half, the right side, creative side is structural and AI. I don't really need the macro data to tell me that there's still strength there. So we still feel really good about the growth side of the market. We feel really good about productivity enhancement. That's all micro data. Government shut down or not, I'm still get in my micro data. On the macro side, I think the reaction today is really just an unwinding of a soft landing trade. I think that's where there's question marks. You're seeing that pain in small cap. We talked about that being a really interesting place to add beta going into the end of the

year. That's what investors sold today. That's where there's less conviction when you don't have that government data. Okay. Tim, you've got an ETF call? We do, John, and we think right now it's about risk management. You have to prioritize risk management. Again, that all comes down to how much good news we have priced in. We talk to advisors all day. There's a lot of concern. Are we heading into an AI bubble? So one of the strategies we like for all the next year, ticker QFLR, this is going to give investors exposure to the NASDAQ 100, participating in about 70 to 80% of the upside while making sure that we're capping losses over a year right around 10%. So we think this is a great strategy to give you that upside participation. Really keep your foot on the gas pedal when it comes

to a lot of those tech stocks like Nvidia that have been doing well. We think we're going to continue to do well, but also making sure that we're paying particularly close attention to the risk management element. Again, with valuations where they are, we think that needs to be number one priority. Okay. Drew, since Tim's talking defense there, I'll ask you more strategically, how should investors think about factor in defense in their portfolio right now? Yeah, it's funny. I actually think a good defense here might be a good offense. And it's just taking money that you have sidelined and buying growth on a pullback. Honestly, we think you should probably be taking the relative outperformance of defensives these few days and rotating it into beta into tech, into

financials. Those are really interesting, I think, relative trades and moves you can make on these pullback. But it sounds like you're saying you ought to have money on the sidelines. Maybe that's not what we're saying, but that's what investors are doing. Let's put it that way. So if you've got it, then the defense is to put it in on the pullback. Yeah, and if you don't have it on the sidelines, it's rotating out of the defenses that have outperformed that really don't have good structural earnings growth. All right.

Drew, Tim, thank you. Well, Disney is among the biggest drags on the Dow today as results failed to impress the street with streaming, unable to offset declines in linear TV revenue. Are Julia Borson joining me now in studio with more on Disney's results. Julia, how is it going? Well, I think that there were some disappointments, particularly in the direct-to-consumer streaming business, as well as the parks business falling short of analyst's expectations. But I interviewed Hugh Johnston this morning on Squawk Box, and he talked about the fact

that they're increasing their dividend, they're buying back more stock, and they're really optimistic over the long run, not just on parks, but also on the direct-to-consumer business is paying off. On the parks part, I'm particularly curious about that, because parks and then cruising which they're gearing up. That's a lot of money. But how much of that is going to be domestic versus the international business

really needing to continue to stay strong? Well, you're right. They have two new cruise ships that are coming online, and Johnson said that even though they have this additional capacity, they're still booking at the same level. They're going to be able to fill those cruise ships.

And he did note that bookings for the fiscal first quarter that this quarter right now are up 3%. And he said, Walt Disney World, amount per spending per head was up 5% for the quarter. So they're seeing different areas of strength, and he says they do see momentum going into next year. But I think there's this question with the cruise ships. Those were such a big investment, and it sounds like that investment will pay off. I wonder if Disney is an example of a company that might be overly weighted toward luxury.

Because the theme parks, the cruise, like all these prices have gone up so much. You hear people talking about that. You see people hiking prices on these streaming services. If you can't rely on luxury to drive as much anymore, are they, positioned okay? I would argue that the streaming services are not luxury. The streaming services are accessible and they're really pushing the bundle, right? They said for ESPN, the new all-inclusive ESPN app, 80% of new sign-ups for that ESPN app are paying for a bundle and they're discounting the bundle so it's very affordable for the first year. They're basically giving away half of those

apps for free to get people locked into that bundle. The parks and experiences business is a different argument. That is much more high end. Hugh John didn't use the word choiceful. He said, said consumers are being far more choiceful in their spending. But he said that people don't skimp when it comes to Disney vacations. So it sounds like maybe they're being a little bit more thoughtful about where they're spending, but they still have some momentum, some growth, maybe slowing growth around the parks, and people are still booking the parks and the cruises, which are not cheap either. Can't skimp. You just don't go. Julia, thank you. Well, that big market sell-off today came as concerns about AI valuations are hitting big tech hard.

so what other sectors could be a good place to move your money. Healthcare has had a big rebound off the bottom. Is there more room to run? And as we look at some of the stocks hitting all-time highs today, you can see health care names, including Eli Lilly. Johnson and Johnson are hitting records during this sell-off. Overtime's back in two. Welcome back to Overtime.

Shares of Verizon bucking the downtrend today, but for a less than exciting reason, The company reportedly cutting about 15,000 jobs. That amounts to roughly 15% of the workforce, and it would be the biggest round of cuts ever. It comes to the new CEO and increased competition for wireless phone and home internet services. Another standout and sell off today, health care. The sector is now closed higher every day in November, the top performing sector this month. Investors are moving into health care as they rotate out of tech.

That sector is down 4% in November. The top healthcare stocks in this period, Humana, Zimmer, Zimmer, Molina, Moderna. So is it too late to get into the trade after this recent run? Joining me now is Lance Wilkes, Bernstein Senior Research Analyst. Lance, is there more to this, or is this just a beleaguered sector having a bit of a bounce? Well, I think it's certainly benefiting from a rotation right now, but I think this is really early innings. You've had about three years of underperformance in this space. You take a name like United margins are about half of kind of normal levels, and multiples are down 20 to 30 percent.

So when you look at those sorts of things, you're really getting the behaviors of sort of a cyclical industry or cyclical recovery in a sector that traditionally is non-cyclical. I think that makes it really attractive. What should investors make of the difference between how the more biotech pharma side of this area is performing versus the insurance side? You know, I think on the insurance side, what you've really seen is a pricing cycle. And that's been compounded by some unusual things with COVID, where you had sort of a supply shock, a compression of utilization that then bounced back. And everybody, you know, use services at a more rapid rate than as usual. And that was compounded by a pricing cycle, excessive competition, some rate shocks from the government. and now you're going through a repricing in these spaces,

cutting of benefits, increasing of rates and things like that. I think that's a really attractive space on the managed care, health care services side. I think over on the other areas within health care, what you're seeing is, you know, greater durability in earnings, policy that is really not ending up being that difficult or that painful for some of the areas. You know, the GLP1 announcement of the other day,

obviously opening up new markets. So I think there's a lot of positives in this space. I think, you know, in general, the services or managed care subsector is an area that is probably just beaten down much more and has, you know, more opportunity to run. You think we're going to see an increased disparity between the drug side and the care side

with an older and arguably sicker population coming? You know, I think the big thing you'll see on the care side with these is for a lot of the care and services side, you're going to see two things. One, that older, sicker population puts greater pressures of affordability on their ultimate payers. And those payers are employers, just like Verizon that you just mentioned about. Obviously, compensation costs, premium increases are getting towards double digits. That's a big pressure, especially in these kinds of economies. And then the government. And, you know, obviously the subsidies, part of the shutdown, those are big impact.

And so I think the services that managed care, ultimately PBMs, things like that, can provide are going to be very important on a go forward. What you'll see with a lot of that is those are going to be things that are going to get tailored to those populations. You're seeing a real retrenchment in top line right now. You'll probably see a recovery and margin. I think for the other sectors, where you're going to see is durable demand. And you're going to see, you know, kind of high, high consistent growth levels across health care. and the difference in the health care services side is they're really beaten down and their objective of trying to control those cost trends is going to be more and more in demand.

And I do want to mention that UNH, which you brought up is your top pick. Lance Wilkes, thank you. Thank you. Well, Stubhub, releasing its first quarterly report since its IPO in September, reporting Q3 revenue of $468 million. That's better than the $452 million analysts expected, lost per share of $4.27. It's unclear if that's comparable to Wall Street's consensus estimate. Stubhub's gross merchandise sales up 11% year over year. But the company says excluding the tough

comparison to Taylor Swift's Erez to her, those sales were up 24%. Stock still down, 7.5% at the moment. Well, coming up, much more on this sell-off today in the broader market rotation we're seeing. Check out Western Digital, Robin Hood, Seagate, Micron. Those are the four best stocks in the S&P 500 this year, all up 150% or more, even with today's losses, but all down big today. Mike Santoli is going to join us with a look at where the money's coming from and where it's going. Stay with us.

Welcome back to overtime. Take a look at the momentum ETF, down more than 2% today with a number of the names in it, hitting multi-month lows. Flutter had its worst day since July. Sofi, Corning, and Interactive Brokers. clocking their worst days since April, and some of the meme ETS's other top holdings having a very rough day, Robin Hood, Palantir, and Rocket Lab. Now, from beta to Buffett and quantum to quality, you can see the shift in market outperformance in a few key charts. CNBC Senior Markets commentator,

Mike Santoli has them for us. Mike? Yeah, John, so this is kind of the look and feel of froth rushing out of the market, as many probably were hoping and betting on, but it happens in a messy way sometimes. Here in a broad sense, is the Russell 2000 growth. That's a growth component of the Russell 2000 relative to big cap quality stock. So in general terms, small cap growth has sort of flimsy financials. They require lots of help on liquidity and macro conditions. And they have outperformed up until this point. You see kind of a rolling over in a, you know, potentially decisive way there over the last couple of months. Now, zooming in just a little bit, take a look at the low volatility ETF. So this is very, very stable big cap companies relative to some of those

kind of high flyer momentum beta names, Robin Hood, Palantir, and App Loven. This is just a month to date chart. So you just sort of see how quickly those names have been abandoned. Of course, all of them up huge off lows. Take a look here at a relationship that I've tracked for a while now, which is Berkshire Hathaway shares relative to the NASDAQ 100. Of course, NASDAQ100 is dominated by mag seven in some respects berkshire hathaway is the largest market cap company that's not kind of operating by mag seven rules right so you have the mag seven then you have broadcom and then you have berkshire hathaway in terms of size and it's really stable quality uh kind of not very cyclical not very levered to risk appetites and you just sort of see how it's gone in

these inverse patterns for a while now so it shows you that you know money wants to find a place to take some shelter when, in fact, the dominant trade is taking a break. So this doesn't mean that it's game over for the, you know, the AI theme that's been driving things for years. But we are obviously having some kind of a reset here, John. Well, when money needs a place to stay, it can always come to my house. Mike, what was it? Well, it goes to Omaha instead, usually.

It does. It keeps going over to Warren Buffett's house. So right there at the end of October, beginning of November, where there's that reversal in direction. Remind me what happened? Let's see. So right here you mean? Yeah, right around there. What happened? I mean, things got extended in the AI trade for sure. I do think that we got, you know, through earnings season, everything was fine, and it's kind of like what else do you have for me in the way of the AI trade? And for Berkshire Hathaway, I also do think that you saw some firming up of, you know, the insurance business looked like it was doing a little bit better. Their earnings were better than expected. So I think all that's kind of working together. that causes this little convergence here. This was, to me, more interesting because Berkshire Hathaway ran to an all-time peak valuation and price at the very day before Warren Buffett said he was going to be giving up the CEO role at the end of this year. So everything was lined up for that

to pull back a little bit. And it was also in the midst of the tariff panic that had depressed NASDAQ 100. So you had a huge snapback from that kind of jaws open to close. Always love the chart perspective. Mike Santoli. Thanks. Time now for a CNBC News update with Bertha Coombs. Bertha. John, the DOJ is filing a lawsuit over California's redistricting maps. The maps which were approved in California elections last week looked to cement Democratic control over the state.

Pam Bondi called that effort a, quote, power grab that tramples on civil rights and mocks the Democratic process in an emailed statement to the Associated Press. The Department of Justice did not sue any of the Republican-led judge. States that redrew their electoral maps this year at the urging of President Trump. President Trump has issued a pardon to British billionaire Joe Lewis. Lewis pleaded guilty to securities fraud related to insider trading in January 2024 and was forced to pay a $5 million fine. A White House official told NBC News that the 88-year-old Lewis requested the pardon so

that he can receive medical treatment in the United States and visit his grandchildren. Lewis currently lives in the Bahamas, according to the athletic. And the Seidler family announced that it will explore strategic options for the San Diego Padres, including the potential sale of the franchise. Sidlers have been a part of the Padres ownership group since 2012 when they purchased it from John Moors. And our folks at CNBC Sports say it's valued at about $2.1 billion, making it the $16. most valuable baseball team. Still a lot. Bertha Coombs, thank you. Got some breaking news out of Washington. The White House announcing progress on trade talks with several countries. Our Amen Javvers has the story. Amen. John, that's right. The White House posting these details. Just within the

past few moments on their website, we expect to get some more details here in just a couple of minutes time from White House officials. But what I can tell you is they're posting trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, and Ecuador. The Argentine agreement is interesting. Obviously, there's been a political alliance between the Trump administration and the current Argentine government. In this case, they're calling it a framework agreement between the United States and Argentina, in which the United States is going to remove the reciprocal tariffs on certain products coming from Argentina. Remember, those tariffs had been at 10% baseline level. That goes away, at least in many cases, and we're just reviewing the details here now.

And they say, furthermore, the countries have committed to improved reciprocal bilateral market access conditions for trade in beef. For Ecuador, they're also calling that a framework agreement. They're saying that Ecuador intends to establish tariff rate quotas on a number of agricultural goods. And for Guatemala, similarly, they're calling this a framework agreement between the two countries. Remember, Guatemala, obviously, a large producer. of coffee. You'd heard the president and some of his top officials talking this week about the need to remove tariffs on countries that produce commodities that Americans can't, such as coffee and bananas and others, in an effort to get prices down on all of those. So that kind of dovetails

with this affordability issue that's been in the news here in Washington over the past two weeks. But interesting one here on Argentina, focused on a lot of goods, but also beef, Guatemala on coffee, and then also Ecuador, John. Back over you. We're going to watch the stock impacts. Amen, Jabbers, thank you. Meantime, a big tech sell-off today. Some AI darlings getting hit hard. Invidia, Broadcom, and Oracle, with a rapid fall from Grace,

having its worst month since 2022. With some nervousness in the public market, the money's still flowing into AI in the private markets, though. We're going to talk to the CEO of Cursor, which just raised a big round of funding. Is he worried about any kind of slowdown in AI spending? Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Big sell-off on Wall Street today as investors once again rotated out of high momentum and the AI trade.

The NASDAQ, the big drag, off 2.3%, its third down day in a row in a three-week low. Meta was the only Mag 7 stock higher. Invidia, among the worst of the group, now down 13% from its highs, and Tesla losing 6%. And check out some of the other hot momentum names getting crushed. data storage company Sandisk, AI Data Center Play, Iran, and energy stock Bloom Energy. Also, a few names in consumer staples bucking the down trends, Hormel, General Mills, Archer Daniels, and Kraft, and applied materials reporting results earlier this hour. Earnings and revenue better than expected.

Guidance also seen topping estimates. The stock, however, adding to its losses from the regular session, it is down almost 3%. Well, the NASDAQ down nearly 2.5% today. its worst day in a month, over a month, really. The selling hitting the AI trade hard, Palantir, Dell, Broadcom, Oracle, all sharply lower, but there's a bright spot. That's in private markets. Cursor announcing today is raised $2.3 billion at a $29.3 billion valuation, nearly triple its valuation from this past June.

The AI coding tool is utilized across the industry, including at NVIDIA. Joining me now in a CNBC exclusive is Cursor CEO, Michael Truel. Michael, it doesn't sound like you're seeing a slowdown and coding productivity tools are one of the early, really strong areas for AI. What are you seeing that led to this latest round? What are you doing to fuel that growth? Well, thank you for having me. We are seeing an acceleration of demand across especially our enterprise base, and that includes both digital native companies. We have wall-to-wall deployments with companies like Uber.

Adobe, Invidia, Shopify, but that also includes real economy companies like Starbucks and PWC and Hilton. And at this point, the demand for our tool is such that we serve over 60% of the Fortune 500 and they pay us. And it's not just demand that we're seeing in our category. It's also success. There was a study that came out from the University of Chicago recently that studied the productivity impacts of switching to our agent.

And it showed that companies that switch to our agent, they ship 40% more code. and get 40% more of the roadmap done after they switch. It's a dramatic game changer from what I'm hearing from CEOs that are encouraging their developer base to get their skills in AI up as quickly as possible. What's your estimate on how much penetration you have into the existing developer base that could use it? And then how much more room there is for expansion? Because I think investors really want to know how much running room is there for the valuations for some of these infrastructure companies

that you're running on top of? I think that we're lucky to be in a market that is very, very large and is not immediately limited in its total addressable market. And I think that that's both the number of potential professionals we can serve. Our market is people who build software for a living.

And I think that we could be serving over an order of magnitude more people easily. And then it's also the degree to which we can help the companies we're partnering with. One of the trends we've seen, too, in addition to success in deployment, in addition to demand among a bunch of different companies, is once we get within a company, we start to help both the company more over time and each person more over time. And we've seen the demand on a per user basis and the ARPU grow over time. How eager are you or not to join the public markets given the valuation that you're seeing in the private markets and I guess the relative freedom that you probably have to pursue your overall strategy without the quarterly check-ins? We would like to be a long-lasting and during independent company.

Our immediate focus is on building out the company and growing the team. And we have a lot more to do there before thinking about anything like going public. All right. Well, we think about it all the time. I'm sure public market investors would like to think about Cursor. Michael Truell, co-founder and CEO, thanks for joining us here on overtime. Thank you for having me. Coming up is more American struggle to afford life-saving medications. A cottage industry is stepping in and promising patients free or cheap drugs. But a CNBC investigation reveals where the prescriptions may be coming from, potentially putting lives at risk. Right back. Bringing down the high cost of prescription drugs has been a top priority for the Trump administration, but it's not been fast enough for employers and families who are desperate for a solution. A CNBC investigation uncovers popular insurance schemes that offer huge

savings on medications but could put patient lives in danger. Here's Melissa Lee with Risky RX. A question being asked across the country, how can I afford my prescription? drugs. Prices are skyrocketing. It's a broken system and we need to make sure everyone is paying attention. With some specialty medications costing tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars per year and prescription drug prices in the U.S. averaging nearly three times more than in other countries, driving people and employers to find a solution. It's such a desperate thing to think that you might not have your medication at all. A booming cottage industry is selling a itself as an antidote, often getting the drugs overseas for a fraction of the cost.

We do a public service. We help people get access to medications. But there's a major catch. What they're doing is illegal, and it's putting American lives at risk. What I tell my friends and family is that the most expensive medicine that they could get is one that isn't safe, isn't effective, or isn't high quality, and doesn't meet the standards that are in FDA-approved medicines. Patients and employers are desperate for a solution.

The question is, at what cost? The FDA says it's illegal to import drugs that are available and sold in the United States. All of these drugs are, in fact, available domestically, correct? That was just a preview of our full-length documentary. To watch the entire story, go to cnbc.com slash risky rx. John. Melissa, how does it work? Is this a new twist on the old black market drugs?

It actually, it's through employer insurance plans, John. So think about employers who are cash strapped, think school boards, municipalities, small businesses on Main Street. They're looking to save ways to save money. So they basically tell their insurance plan, we want to save money. The insurance plan contracts out to what's known as an alternative funding program to cover high-cost specialty medicines. These are medicines needed to treat illnesses like multiple sclerosis or cancer. These AFPs, they find the medicine overseas. AFPs get paid because they get a fee or they get a percentage of the savings.

Patients get the drugs for little to no cost, except that there is a price to pay, and that is they are taking drugs that are gotten from overseas. There's no guarantee where these drugs have come from, if they're safe, if they're effective, or even if they are real. Wow. So in the documentary, you interviewed a patient who got sent to the Caribbean to pick up medicine. Is that the same medicine that a patient in the Caribbean would get, or is that just kind of like a swapping place? No. So this is just an amazing story, John. We talked to Bruce and Becky Zimmerman. Bruce has multiple sclerosis. He's an electrician. Through his employer, he got connected with Price MDs and AFP Alternative Funding Program, who said to Bruce, you know what, go to the Cayman Islands

or the Bahamas to pick up your three-month supply of Avenex. So basically, he and his wife, Becky, went on eight trips over the course of a few years every 90 days to pick up their Avenax. So imagine the margins being made by the AFP. order for them to actually send this couple overseas, pay all of their expenses, and still make money. What we found by tracking Turkish customs data is that during the same period, while this couple was making these trips, this company, Price MDs, was actually sourcing Avenex from Europe, which would then go through Turkey and then to the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands. And when we asked Biogen, the Magar of Avenex, about the supply route, they said there are no

ship to locations in the Bahamas or the Cayman Islands. that this is not an authorized supply chain. Wow. Quite a story. Everybody ought to watch it. Risky RX. Melissa Lee, thank you. Well, up next, Fast Money, Steve Grasso reacts to today's big sell-off and where he sees buying opportunities in this carnage. And as we had to break, here are some notable names hitting 52-week lows today. Molina Healthcare, Paychecks, Motorola Solutions, and Wirehauser. We are back. Welcome back to overtime. Appalusa unveiling its third quarter. quarter 13f filing with some notable reshuffling, including a rotation out of big tech for the most part.

The fun trimmed positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and meta, adding to Invidia, also making big moves in the chip space with Appaloosa dissolving stakes in Intel while adding a new position in AMD, also dissolving its stake in Oracle. Both those moves looking decent right now. The filing also shows a renewed push into Chinese tech. David Tepper's firm ramped up exposure to Baidu, boosting its stake 67% along with two Chinese. Internet ETFs while pairing back stakes in e-commerce names like PDD Holdings, J.D.com, and Alibaba. Important to note here, these stakes may have changed in the six weeks since September 30th. Well, a sudden shift in rate expectations, along with the rotation of the AI trade on valuation

concerns, is shaking up the major averages in the past week, but could the pullback today be a buying opportunity? Let's bring in Grasso, Global CEO and Fast Money Trader. Steve Grasso. Steve, what do you think? Opportunity here? You buying? Yeah, well, you know, a lot of people are mega long into this market, which makes it ultimately painful, John. Think about if you have stocks that you've owned, you've bought them pretty much at all-time highs, not the stocks, but the market at all-time highs. If rates do get cut in December, I think the market gets right back on that bull. That's the problem that we're seeing right now. Tech got us here.

leads us here. Tech's 30% of the overall market. Where's the growth come from? An overabundance has come from tech-related names for the Mag 7 names, not the 493 other names. We need lower rates to keep that train going. So how much do you trim your winners for dry powder? How much dry powder do you keep in case more stuff goes on sale? Yeah, that's a great question. That's a, you know, that depends on timing, depends on your age, depends on the individual. But for a trader, you should be nimble in this marketplace where you can keep a core position and then trade around that core position. So if you're long mag seven names, trim them. If you've gotten hit with Oracle, I heard you on your lead into this.

Oracle is down a drastic amount in the last few weeks or so. That one has had some great gains, but it's taking it right now where it hurts. So just to sleep better at night, do the pillow test, John, trim some of your biggest gainers. What's your favorite thesis right now to hold on to no matter what the volatility does? Well, the market has been pressed with AI, pressed higher. So if you look at CapEx spending, it was about $350 billion for 2025. The forecast or the guidance is for $500 billion in 2026. for me, go to the next thing, right?

If you want to go hyperbolic tech, you're not going to find it in AI anymore, right? Because at a certain point, Nvidia has to run out of rabbits out of a hat or somebody or the hyperscale is go to somebody else. Why not go to quantum? Now, I get it. There's no money in quantum yet.

There's no real revenues. There's no case to be made that they can actually make money. But if you're looking for the next greatest thing, it's not AI anymore. is more of quantum. What do you do with crypto with Bitcoin under 100K? A fetal position right now. So, so, you know, John, when you, when you look at the cold storage, so it's hot wallets, right, where it's accessible, it's on an exchange, it's in a wallet, there's a lot of transition into cold wallets because people are worried about getting hacked.

That balancer hack took a lot of confidence out of Ethereum, a lot of confidence out of Bitcoin, and they've been hammered for the last 30 days. So one of two things are going to happen. Either right after Thanksgiving, this could last a little bit longer. Right after Thanksgiving, they're going to rip, or the selloff should stabilize. So I don't think, I think we're past those days of watching an 80% decline, hopefully, in these cryptos. So I would look for December to be a rally month and get back to those all-time highs in both Bitcoin. I just love how support.

quarter of crypto traders are of each other in the tough times. It's like the sideline of a football game. Come on, you can get back in there. Hold on for dear life. Steve Grasso, thank you. Everybody watch Fast Money right after this. Well, Bitcoin plunging nearly 20% since early October hitting the lowest level since May today. But up next, Mike Santoli is going to look at why the cryptocurrency could be primed for a comeback. And the government shutdown might be over officially, but the data desert continues. We still won't get the latest producer price index, retail sales and business inventories reports tomorrow, but you will get more overtime right after this break. Welcome back to overtime. Let's talk Bitcoin again. The cryptocurrency has been on a

roller coaster ride recently, up about 6% for the year, but down 13% in a month might be nearing a support. Why? Well, let's ask the market's commentator Mike Santoli. Mike? Yeah, John, that conclusion partly depends on one's definition of a commodity and whether Bitcoin operates by commodity rules. But first, let's just take a look at how Bitcoin has now performed relative to gold over the last year and a half. And you see that obviously gold had a great run. And it's now eclipsed Bitcoin's performance over that period of time. You see it's been pretty stark, too, over the last month or so. With this acceleration higher in gold and Bitcoin has hit some hard times, fell below $100,000 today. It's been some sloppy action in the last month.

There was that liquidation event, that one day sell off October 10th, 11th. And Bitcoin has not really been to kind of pick itself up from that in a sustainable way. However, take a look at this analysis by J.P. Morgan, which compares Bitcoin's price to the cost to produce a single Bitcoin, which is also rising by design. Keep in mind, the way you produce a Bitcoin, the way you mine it is these computers do these increasingly difficult calculations to win the right to have earned a single Bitcoin. Now, what the JP Morgan is trying to portray here is it usually gets support when it gets down toward its cost of production, which is around $94,000 right now. So we'll see if this holds up.

A lot of commodities, they will actually get support at their cost of production because people just stop producing it. And therefore, the supply just goes away. Well, that's not really going to happen here. They're still going to supply Bitcoin, at least probably. The network's still going to function. But worth noting right here as a lot of other things seem to work against crypto at the moment. I wonder if that chart, though, Mike, that you're showing right now is a little of that.

don't think about the stay puff marshmallow man. I mean, is it a suggestion or is a rule? If people think it can't fall below the price of production, does that lock them in potentially to a trade that makes it happen? Well, first of all, it absolutely could because my view for Bitcoin in general is there's nothing really that it's about, right, except for people's collective decision that it's a store of value of some kind. I've never thought there was a right or wrong price for it,

but there are trading dynamics and patterns that people do. try to pin some meaning to. So we'll see if that holds up this time. I couldn't say for sure, but I did find it interesting that at least someone's grasping for some fundamental input here. Well, the market stays interesting for sure, Mike, when we have a day like this, even with things at highs and crypto, one of the things that we watch to try to figure out how those risk assets are doing. So that's relevant across more than folks who are looking directly at Bitcoin. Thank you for that. So that's going to do it for us here at overtime. Fast money. Starts right now.