CNBC Business News Update - Market Open: Stocks Modestly Higher, S&P 500 Index Sets Fresh Intraday High, Gold At New High, Investors Anticipate First Interest Rate Cut of 2025 Tomorrow 9/16/25

Episode Date: September 16, 2025

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I'm Jessica Edinger, CNBC. Wall Street is modestly in the green this morning as the two-day Fed meeting on interest rates gets underway. The S&P 500 index opened above 6,600 this morning for the first time in history, hitting a new intraday high. The Dow is up 15 points being led higher by shares of Chevron, which are up 1%. The S&P 500 index up 2 points. The NASDAQ is up 2 points. NVIDIA shares are down three quarters of a percent. Gold hit a new intraday all-time high today, $3,737 an ounce. Investors are banking on an interest rate cut by the Fed, which would be announced tomorrow afternoon. The CME Fed Watch tool says the market's priced in a 96% chance of a quarter percentage point cut.

The Fed controls short-term interest rates for banks. That allows for cheaper money they turn around and lend that out. It also means savers, though, would earn less on money they have in high-yield savings accounts and money market funds. Retail sales came in stronger in August than expected, but some of that may be inflation as things cost more. 0.6% increase. Economists were looking for 0.2% increase during the month of August. So that could incorporate a little bit of higher prices in there. It's not adjusted for inflation, but it also shows a pretty decent consumer picture.

Yeah, although I think if you do fold in, some inflation-adjusted models. You're probably looking at about two-tenths. CNBC's Carl Keentineo with Sarah Eisen. Here's CNBC's senior economics reporter, Steve Leesman. Part of what we're seeing in this retail sales number is a little bit more inflation on the consumer goods side. You can have consumer strength. That looks to be true. It could also be true that part of what we're seeing here is the result of tariffs working their way into the system. President Trump's pressure campaign for the Fed to drop interest rates will lead to even higher inflation and weaker economic growth. This is according to a new CNBC survey of money managers, investment strategists, and economists.

More than 80 percent of those asked believe the president's trying to eliminate the central bank's independence. Nearly 70 percent say the moves will drive inflation higher. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling CNBC today he believes a trade deal with China, is likely before the new November deadline on reciprocal tariffs. We need to meet again before November 10th. That is the date that our role expires on the reciprocal, the full reciprocal tariffs on China. So we'll be seeing each other again. I think the Chinese now sense that a trade deal is possible,

as the tariff wall has gone up around the U.S. Oracle shares were higher on a CBS report that oracles among the group of companies that would enable Chinese-owned TikTok to continue to operate on Americans' cell phones if a deal is announced. The Trump administration has ordered Delta and Aero Mexico to unwind their joint venture that lets them coordinate schedules pricing and capacity for flights between the U.S. and Mexico. Delta can still hold its minority stake in Aero Mexico. Jessica Eddinger, CNBC. We have concerns with lots of American companies that come on.

Squatbox, that do business with China. You should be concerned with the companies that don't come on. Squawk box. Squackbox, weekdays, weekdays 6 a.m. Eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.