Cognitive Dissonance - Episode 856: GOP Megabill Final Medicare Toll and Trump Targets Obama

Episode Date: July 28, 2025

This episode of Cognitive Dissonance is brought to you by our patrons. You fucking rock. Be advised that this show is not for children, the faint of heart, or the easily offended. The explicit tag is there for a reason. Recording live from Glory Hole Studios in Chicago and beyond, this is Cognitive Dissonance. Every episode we blast anyone who gets in our way, we bring critical thinking, skepticism and irreverence to any topic that makes the news, makes it big or makes us mad.

It's skeptical, it's political, and there is no welcome mat. Today is Thursday, July the 24th and see so I just noticed something buddy. What's up? I think my voice is entirely recovered. You think so? I feels recovered like I can feel that I've got the appropriate gravel.

How's the necular region doing? Literally perfect. So good. Literally perfect. Yeah, it's perfect. Same amount of mobility? I know I lose about 10%, 10 to 12%. No, I can't tell.

I just started physical therapy and the lady's like, yeah, you're gonna lose like some limited amount of mobility. I was like, well, I didn't start with much. I wasn't moving my neck around. I'm not like a wacky waving inflatable tube man. I was like, look, I've been Ram man my whole life. I just pivot at the waist.

You know? What's over there? Yeah. So it's fine, What's over there? So it's fine. It's like, she measured it, like literally yesterday, she measured it and she's like, oh yeah, like you've got 37 inch neck. You've got like the inspection amount.

Yeah. Your neck is longer than my like, inseam. So yeah, I feel great. I feel, I feel absolutely perfect. And I feel like the voice has finally recovered. That's great. Yeah, they caught into there. How's the scar? You got a big scar on your... I don't know. You tell me.

Is it... I feel like it's... Behind the mic. So yeah, we could see it still. You still got the scar. It's a good scar. Yeah, you still got the scar. That's a nice one though. It's tight. That's a nice one.

I feel like you should have asked him to go all the way across. And then you put safety pins in it like like the Kürgen in Highlander. Do you remember this? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Because he got cut. Oh, guys, if you don't know what the Kürgen is. Frankenstein. If you don't know what the Kürgen is.

I'm gonna explain it to people. People are like, what's a Highlander? What is a Highlander? What are you talking about? Why are you making these sounds, sir? Oh, dude. What I should have done is have him do all the way across all the way around with little stitch marks I could put bolts by my ears and go full frankenstein. So good. So good. I fucking missed the opportunity

Surgeons won't ever do extra cutting on you for good Halloween stuff. I think that this could be bullshit. I don't ever have to buy a present again is a reason. Thank you Yes, look Halloween is always difficult. This simplifies it for me. Can you please just cut me extra? They won't do it. They won't do it. And then the frog goes, why'd you do that? And then the scorpion says, because I'm a scorpion. Well, here's some distressingly predictable news, guys.

It's like in other news, this thing happened that's going to happen a whole bunch for the next several years. I will read this headline in a second, but I just want to point out that like all of the project 2025 stuff that all the people like, it's not going to do that. That's not their playbook. He's never even heard of it. It's all the stuff. It's everything is we read it on law. We read it He's never even heard of it. It's all the stuff. It's everything is.

We read it a lot. We read it on the show. We read it. We read it on the show. People were adamant. Oh, you know, he's not. It's not the first administration with the LGBTQ stuff. People are like, oh, you know, he's not.

And the first thing he did was take any LGBTQ stuff off the White House website. That was like a number one priority. And you're just like, believe what he says he's gonna fucking do. Whatever he says he's gonna do, he's gonna do it. Don't believe the pundits and the talking heads and the apologists and all the people who are, you know, trying to make room for someone

to not appear to be a fascist. When they say, my intention is to be a dictator, maybe pay attention to the guy who's like I want to be a dictator Did you see the there's another one of those? Surrounded debates. No, I didn't see this one had a fella Who's an MSNBC contributor? who's Very pro-palestine. Okay. But I don't know all the clips I saw

were literally about American immigration. So I didn't see, I think much about that. I'm not saying that that's not in that particular thing that there wasn't a fight about Israel-Palestine in that particular video. But what I've seen is, his talking to people about immigrants and one guy literally says,

he says, well, that's fascist. He's like, well, I'm a fascist. The guy just admits he's like, yeah, I'm a fascist. Yeah, I'm a hundred percent. And he starts laughing and he laughs. He laughs just like Tucker Carlson, just like Tucker Carlson. You could fucking clone this guy. Of course. And he would sound exactly like Tucker Carlson, but people now, you know, like like for a long time People were saying, you know scratch this and a fascist bleeds or whatever, etc But I will say the mask is now gone. It's not even there anymore. Yeah, it's like it's like a hundred percent gone We still haven't figured out what this story is though yet

So we've been talking about we've been talking about the temperature of the room But we need to talk about what the specifics here. So this is from the Joe, my God blog. Senate confirms judge who compares LGBTQ rights to pedophilia and declares that Christianity must be imposed. And it's, and it's a lifelong judge. Yep. It's lifelong. Lifelong appointment is he even got one of the independents who regularly sides with the Democrats who is, you know, they sort of lasso him in when they talk about their numbers. And this is a person who is supposedly pro-abortion and is someone who's like, yeah, I'm going to vote for this guy.

Yeah, I don't understand this. I understand the right. I don't understand the. I understand the right. I don't understand the independent who generally, like you said, caucuses with the Democrats, being like, that's my guy. I have to think this comes back to one of the things we were talking about last episode,

which is the craven feckless bullshit that people who wanna stay in power recognize they have to do in order to stay in power recognize they have to do in order to stay in power. So pardon me is like, I bet this guy doesn't want to, he wants to sort of like suck up and get on the sycophantic side and gain in curry favor with these horrible administration because this is an administration that will target you specifically personally for your political views and your political actions.

And they shown that even if you don't fall in line and you're on the same side, he will attack you and might cause you some severe, you know, either some severe damage in the sense that he may send people in the government to come after you or he may just call you out to your constituents and get you to lose your job, et cetera, et cetera.

I remember, and this is one of those things or he may just call you out to your constituents and get you to lose your job, et cetera, et cetera. I remember, and this is one of those things that like, as you get older, you look back on your youth and back on things that were in the olden days and you think they were better, right? That's just, it's a natural phase of you getting older. It's something that happens to everybody. It's a nostalgia fallacy.

It's, oh yeah, exactly. It's a fallacy. It's not necessarily better. But I think when I was younger, I remember there was at least at the very least there was not 100 percent agreement between, say,

the person who is the, you know, the president of the United States and say the speaker of the House. There would be sometimes the speaker of the house. There would be sometimes the speaker would say, fuck you, we're not doing that, we're doing this. And there would be some sort of like hard edges are gonna rub up against each other in politics.

That's gonna happen. We're gonna see this where, we've seen over the last say eight or nine years where that has changed dramatically. Dramatically. Dramatically, where people fall in line with their party only. But I do remember moments of standoff in my youth

between some bigger heavy hitters in government because they were all sort of in their own mind, powerful people. Right. And I'm not seeing any of that anymore. What is getting elected isn't a powerful person. It's a person who can work within this small system only and will fall in line only. Yeah, man, I think what we used to have,

and I don't think you have to go back that far. I think all you have to do is go, I mean, to some degree, we had that in the Biden administration, cause the Democrats, you know, I think back to like the inflation reduction act, and that bill was heavily fought against by certain members of the Democratic party who said, we're not giving you this until you give us that.

And there was a lot of that internal tension. I even go back to the Obama administration and there was plenty of that. So you don't have to go back all that far. I really do think that this is a very unique space that the right has carved out for themselves as they've destroyed the concept of the co-equal branch of government. What they have said has helped destroy it. Yeah. I think what they've recognized is that rather than having three co-equal branch of government. What they instead have- Yeah, that's helped. That's helped destroy it, right? Yeah, I think what they've recognized is that rather than having three co-equal branches of government, wherein there might be some tension, even within your own party, around what's the right thing to do

and what's the right path forward, I think what they've recognized is, if we just get all of our people on the judiciary, in the legislative branch, and in the executive branch to line up in the same row behind the executive branch. And then we use this unitary executive theory to push power up there. We can accomplish all of our shit. We can just do all of our shit.

Now, the shit we do is going to be primarily the shit that the executive wants because the Congress has completely ceded authority. The judiciary has completely rubber stamped the executive. But I think that they have recognized that they don't actually want a democratic system. They don't want three co-equal branches. What they want is to elect a ruler and to allow a ruler to just make all the choices.

Yeah, yeah. You bombed a nursing home. Heisenberg. Heisenberg! You lied. You two-faced sack of shit. I think I will put you under the jail. This story is from The Telegraph.

The secret recordings that could blow open Trump's true relationship with Epstein. So there are nearly 100 hours of tapes. They're said to reveal a tangled history of privileged conflict and fractured loyalty between the pair. We talked about this last week, and then I actually watched the Netflix documentary, Filthy Rich.

Did you happen to watch this documentary? I think I have seen it before, yeah. So I wanna pause here and say, I, until I watched this documentary, had read a fair amount of stuff about the Epstein stuff, and then I watched this documentary had read a fair amount of stuff about the Epstein stuff and then I watched this documentary I didn't realize the extent of Epstein's Crimes like the number of victims is astonishing. It's in the hundreds a lot

It's an astonishing number and then the other thing that I did not fully appreciate until I really saw this documentary and then read some more to follow up on it was the extent to which so many powerful people helped him to cover that up. That's not a conspiracy theory. That's just straight up true things that happened. Not once, but twice. So and the side note that I want to make before we talk about this is like, if we just believed women the first time they came to us,

because they've been reporting this since 1996 at the earliest that I can tell. And if we just believed women when they said, this man is a rapist, like this man is raping young women, this man is abusing people, This man is a sexual predator. If we just believed women, none of the next 20 some years worth of crimes and the hundreds of victims that followed could have happened. But instead of believing those people, we're now like, well, let's look at this evidence.

Let's look at this tapes. Let's dig up all this stuff. We didn't have to do any of this. I just want to point that out because I think it's important to note, we had so many opportunities to just believe the many victims who went to the police, who went to the FBI, who went to local authorities, and said, hey, it's not like we didn't have

people reporting this. This was really well-known stuff. And I find that very distressing. Very distressing. Yeah, no, I think that's a great point. I think, you know, we've seen testimony from people who have said, you know, that have said that he was raping them,

and then there's been pushing of things, covering things up. And one of the things that I think is missed in this, and I talk about it, because we do Cash Patel this upcoming week. Cash Patel was on no rogue Oh really so he had two hours with the FBI director and so we cover it this upcoming third Tuesday So this releases Monday. I can't wait to hear that will be cash Patel

But cash Patel talks about the Epstein files and he's basically like there's nothing there. There's not anything there There's not anything in the tape where he gets killed There's not anything you know where they say he gets they say he gets killed, where he dies by suicide. The other thing that he talks about is how there's, you know, there's no, that everybody thinks that there's some sort of blackmail, like a bunch of, the reason why Jeffrey Epstein was so able to get away with this crime for so long and like you suggest,

have a lot of people help him cover it up. They say, well, there's this blackmail. It's all about blackmail. It's all that they can cocked all these things. And I say this on the show and I'm gonna say it here. What this does is it allows us when we create these conspiracies that make it seem like Jeffrey Epstein had these sort of tendrils all over and that's how he could get away with it. It doesn't let us recognize that any run of the mill billionaire can do this because all you need is a fuck ton of money and the system is very different for you than it is for anyone else.

Right? Anybody else who has any inkling like this, they get charged, they get, you know, they have to go to, they have to, there's hearings, they have to go to, they have to go to the trial, and then they might get, they might go to jail. All these things can happen. But when you're really fucking rich and you're connected, and you can't get really, really rich like that

unless you're connected. That's right. Those people, they live in a different world than you do. Yeah. So us saying the conspiracy is he's tied to Mossad or he's got, you know, dirt on all these people. He's been recording them for years. He brought them on his plane and he recorded them, et cetera, et cetera. All that stuff takes away from the fact that any one of these billionaire people

can do this at any time. It basically exonerates people who unethically claim that much money and then use it as a weapon for the rest of their life. Dude, a thousand percent, a thousand percent. I think you can say, here's what I think I can say and feel comfortable saying. I think that there say, here's what I think I can say and feel comfortable saying. I think that there is a conspiracy.

I really do believe that there is a conspiracy, but the conspiracy may be different than what some people imagine. The conspiracy is that we live in a rape culture that devalues women and deprioritizes their stories and their experiences and the way that they're treated by men. And we live in a world that prioritizes their stories and their experiences and the way that they're treated by men. And we live in a world that prioritizes and defers to the wealthy because the wealthy

have connections and pull and power. They donate money to the local police. They do like this is a, he donated a hundred thousand dollars to local police in West Palm Beach, right? Where the, where And then he got weekends in jail. Right. And you know, he's able to hire a dream team of attorneys

that scare the hell out of all these other people. The conspiracy is that we live in a rape culture that defers to money. That's the conspiracy. And we are living in a world where wealthy people are powerful, where they do get to wield their influence. They do get to pick up the phone and reach up to somebody. And then the person that they're talking to

is sympathetic to the cause because they don't value women's lives. And that's just fucking true. And it's always been true that it's a good old boys club and that that's where money resides. And it's not a hard sell Unfortunately to pick up the phone and say hey, we know each other We've been at the same galas. I donated a whole bunch of money to your your political action committee We've been buddies, you know, these women are just making noise for me. Can you make it go away?

That's a that sure do I think that that is likely? I think that that is certain sure Like I'll just say that's certain because I know we live in a rape culture that doesn't care that there were 200 women who were abused. The very fact that institutionally, if you look at like what he was actually charged with the first time and sentenced with, one of the charges was prostitution with a minor.

So listening process. That's a rape. That's rape. That's rape. That's rape. The fact that institutionally we even have a thing that doesn't recognize the reality that you cannot be a prostitute as a minor. That's an impossibility.

It's like signing a contract before you were able to do it. There's no such thing as a minor that's a prostitute. You have a human trafficked rape victim. It's literally impossible. It's not possible. You made a crime that's not a thing. So when you look and say,

but institutionally we created a crime called, we don't value women's lives. That's what we did. Sure. So I think that's the conspiracy. Sure. Am I discounting the possibility of a broader conspiracy? I'm not.

Maybe there's more to it. Show me the evidence. Show me the evidence. Then I'll be happy to fucking look at it when the evidence shows that there's a broader conspiracy. But I'm not making one up. But I'm not. Yeah, of course not. You're not. You're not. That's not a conspiracy. That's reality. Right. Right. I mean, it's like genuinely reality. Powerful people abuse women and no one cares about it.

Yeah. That's that's that's that's literally the world we live in and it's the world we've always lived in. The only thing, the only difference is, is that oftentimes in the past, this stuff would have been covered up and you would have never heard about it. Right. And that's the difference is that, and did you, was there a major outcry when he was doing, you know, his, I can leave prison when I want stint? Was there a, did you even know who he was then? Right. Of course you didn't. You didn't. You was then? Of course you didn't.

You didn't. Of course you didn't. You learned about it years after the fact. It was like early 2000s when that happened. Nobody knew who he was. Later on, when things start to blow up and other people start to dig around, that's when you get to learn who he is.

This Michael Wolf guy who's got these tapes, he's been banging the drum about this for a long time because he wants to sell his book and he wants to sell his podcast. And he's been talking about this for a long time. And he tried to make this a thing in 2020. I don't know if you remember this, but in like 20 in 2020 during the election cycle, maybe three or four weeks before the election, he dropped these tapes. I don't remember.

We covered this on the show. He dropped part of these tapes. We covered this. We covered this on the show. He dropped part of these tapes. And you and I, I remember our conversation and I think our conversation was like, why wait till now? And it's because you want to sell a book. That's why you're waiting until now. And he's again tapping into the well because he's like, well, I can sell this.

And his contention is that they actually were very close friends and then became estranged. That's his contention. I don't know any different than what he's telling me, right? But his claim is that they didn't like each other. They eventually, they did initially, and then they came to dislike each other and then they treat each other as powerful adversaries,

political adversaries. And Epstein was very afraid supposedly when Trump was in office and Trump was very afraid of Epstein because of the things that maybe he knew about Trump. That's what Michael Wolf is suggesting, right? So there's this back and forth that I had no idea existed. But it's so crazy that so many stories forget that Donald Trump was the one who put him in jail a second time. He was in jail and died by suicide while Donald Trump was the president of the United States.

They seem to forget this. They forget this timeline. Bill O'Reilly this last week was on Fox and had to get fact-checked three times in a row. He kept saying the same thing. Well, he died on a Biden's watch. Like he didn't die on. He died on. He died while Bill Barr was the attorney general. He died then, but they forget, they conveningly forget this stuff and they keep on trying to pass a narrative and create a conspiracy because they've built an entire foundation of their all of their All of their rhetoric is built on conspiracies So this is no this is no different and I also want to point out like and again if stuff comes out

I'll read it and I won't be surprised like I would not be surprised I'm happy to believe any evidence that comes out but beyond that, I would be like, yeah, that tracks. And I say that because we don't need the Epstein files to know with factual certainty that Donald Trump is a sex predator and a creep. And there's testimony even out there that he was a sex predator and creep and possibly with Epstein. Right. So we know that there could be a tie between the two of these.

That's possible. It's absolutely possible. So we't need that. That's something that I keep thinking when I'm reading this and people like, oh, like, is there going to be something that implicates him? It's like, what else do you need? There's already stuff to what else? Don't resist to decide that this man is a sex predator. Like, like this is a guy who has talked about his daughter in sexually fetishizing ways, his own fucking daughter on tape, and he talks about how he also likes young ladies. He's bragged about going behind stage

and watching the Miss Universe pageants get dressed. He's been accused and civilly convicted of sexual crimes. What more, why do you need this? Why do you need this to be like, told you he was a sex predator. What are you talking about? How many times do you have this? Why do you need this to be like, told you he was a sex predator. What are you talking about? How many times do you have to break into my house before I'm like, yeah, you're a burglar, man.

I can't, I can't get the article to work right now, but at the bottom of the article, they talk about Marjorie Taylor Greene and Marjorie Taylor Greene says, essentially, you can't keep leading us on and you can't keep dangling this red meat in front of us and not delivering Donald Trump. Essentially, you need to release these things and she's not wrong. She's right about that. She's not wrong. Yeah. He used this.

You talked about this last week. We both talked about it. The very fact that he used conspiracy thinking to get himself elected, this is what every single person who uses conspiracy for their advantage finds out and they all find out the hard way, is you can't control the narrative. You think you can, you think you're the one who's creating the narrative, but what you don't realize is that a Conspiracy theorist is a chaos agent in that narrative and they will spin and create brand new shit You're not able to just putt it right in you're playing pinball with a million

Conspiracy theorist bumpers out there that are bouncing that that theory Back and forth between each other you have no control over it and they forget that they think I'm smarter than that They're not smart. You're gonna lose every time when you when you and when you don't use Reality as your anchor and can't go back to it everything gets unraveled so Tell me what you think of this metaphor, it just occurs to me as you're talking, I'm like, holy shit, that's really interesting.

Like, it feels to me like conspiracy theories ultimately are sort of intellectual Ponzi schemes. Yeah, that's great. They're constantly borrowing in order to get some payback, right? So they're constantly borrowing and borrowing and borrowing, but eventually like any Ponzi scheme, because it rests on nothing, it collapses.

Because at some point there's nothing left to pull from. You have to show up and show up or shut up, right? The thing is there's always new dupes. There's always new dupes. And that's why sometimes never dies, is because there's always somebody who's like, I can get rich. Yeah.

It's interesting with something like this, because like you've got Cash Patel, you've got Pam Bondi, you've got other Trump surrogates who have made a name for themselves and a career for themselves by specifically talking about this conspiracy theory and making actual, and maybe this is the part where the Ponzi scheme collapses on this, on the conspiracy stuff.

What the problem is, I think that they made actionable, deliverable claims. If this happens, I will do this. This is on my desk. I will show it to you. And people are like, cool, show it to me. It's like, there's a big difference between there's chemtrails, right? Chemtrails, there's always, there's it to me. It's like, there's a big difference between, there's chemtrails, right?

Chemtrails, there's always, there's nothing to prove. Like, what are we all gonna go up in the sky together? Like, it's nothing to prove, we can't do it. So that kind of nonsense can just sort of live in the nonsense perpetuity. But if you're like, there's a thing and I'll show it to you. And I'll show it to you once this other event occurs,

election. Well, the election occurred, show me the thing. And it's like, the difference, I don't want to know. The difference between say this and the election conspiracy too, is the election conspiracy, they can always go back to, well, they destroyed the evidence, they're trying to hide this, et cetera, et cetera. Here you're saying you've given us a goal with the election conspiracy. There is no real goal. There's nothing there. There's no tangible end to the election conspiracy. You can just say indefinitely in perpetuity. I was robbed of

the 2020 election because you never have to prove anything in your base doesn't expect it. Right here. You said, there is proof. These people are awful. I can get you that proof. All you have to do is get me in. You've made a claim. You made a claim before, but that claim was up in the air.

There wasn't anything you could get them. Now you made a claim. And now you're standing out in front of the wardrobe and Narnia is close to you. And everybody's like, well, you said there was a lion and there's a witch. I see the fucking wardrobe. So they needed this racist palate cleanser, if you will, this cup of white supremacist sorbet. This story is from the Financial Times. The McCrone's file US lawsuit over claim.

France's first lady was born male. These people are gross. This is Candace. Oh, these people are disgusting. Fucking gross. They're fucking disgusting. They done this shit for against Michelle Obama. Yeah, Michelle.

I'm thinking man. Yeah, there is Candace. Owens is one of the straight up, just one of the worst people to draw breath. Yeah. She is a monster of a human being and she is one of the most just, it's just so obvious how personally self-interested all of her activity is, right?

So Candace Owens is not some independent journalist telling it like it is. Candace Owens is not some independent journalist telling it like it is. Candace Owens is a person whose belief system and bullhorn always amplifies messages that specifically benefit Candace Owens. And the brand that Candace Owens is trying to produce in order to sell you bullshit. And she sells a lot of bullshit.

And she makes a ton of money doing this. She has no expertise whatsoever, no functional expertise in any of the things that she does. She's just a person and like she has made these baseless and horrifying claims for a long time now about Emmanuel Macron's wife saying that like oh you know she was born male and she's actually Jean. And she's like, you know, all this horrible, horrible shit and they're sooner. And now she's like, well, that's bullying. You're bullying me.

See, she said something to the effect of, you know, this is an example of a foreign government bullying and trying to take away my first amendment rights. And it's like, no, this is the result of you being full of shit. You don't have First Amendment rights against the French government, you idiot. Idiots. Who thinks that? Idiots. Who thinks that?

Idiots. God, these are the same people who go to other countries and think they have the same rights that they have here. I know, man. And then they have the rudest awakening in the world. They're just like, those are delicious. But I'm an American citizen. That's delicious. I love that so much. same rights that they have here. And then they have the rudest awakening in the world. Those are delicious. But I'm an American citizen.

That's delicious. I love that so much. I love that so much. It's like, there's a funny story that we'll cover in the patron thing where people just don't understand when you're in another country, how different things are. Do you think they think their rights travel with them? think they do I think that man we are not the smartest

group of people that's that is a hundred percent true the American people are not the smartest group okay yeah and man they do think they think that if you carry a bill of rights You just walk around with a fucking laminated little car. You could hold it up to the, oh, it's like a fucking cross and a vampire. You can just hold it up to other fucking governments. That's fucking outstanding, dude. I love it so much. I just want to, I just, what I want is these horrible people who say terrible things, baseless

claims, literally just trying to rile up their base and attack their base. I want them to pay. Yeah. I just want them to pay. That's what I want. I want, I want, you know, like make America great. I want it like make lying pay again.

Thank you. Yes. Lying like a make lying an awful thing. Make lying make you go into debt. That's what I want to see happen to people. Yeah, man. I want to see that across the board to everybody. I want to see, I want to see people who lied and people who banked on those lies and people who gained from those lies lose everything. That's what I want to see. This might be the only way that we can put the genie not back in the

bottle, but contain the genie once it's up. We split it, it's only a few hundred dollars each. Great, yeah, let me just go grab my cash for my money tree. I know Leprechaun who has a pot of gold. He lives at the end of my street. Maybe I'll go to a bank and say, hello, do I have an account here? Call Donald Trump. How do three men in their 30s not have $800 between them? The economy is in shambles. Taking the close-knit marketplace right now.

It's off. Stop talking, God damn it, fine. This story comes from Yahoo Finance. Today's housing market is so upside down, there are more senior citizens buying homes than Gen Zs and millennials. This blew me away. Yeah.

Blew me away. Senior citizens. Yeah. That's a person who is what, over 62 or 63 or something like that? Yeah, I don't know exactly how they count it, but I think that they, right now, the median age to buy a home, not a first home,

but to buy a home has moved up 10 years in no time at all. It's now 58 years old. That's outrageous. That is outrageous. It's moved up to 58 because you have to have accumulated a certain amount of wealth and you probably have to have an existing saleable asset in order for you to buy a house.

So the housing market is maximally unhealthy right now. And I think that we've talked about this before. This is just like my fucking shower thoughts on it, but it happens to be something I do give a lot of thought to. I think a lot of people think that this is a bubble. That's a very common thing that you hear. Oh, this is a bubble. I don't think this is a bubble at all.

I think it's maximally unhealthy, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there's an impending collapse. We had a collapse in 2008 because we had an unhealthy housing market, but that's not why it collapsed and was a bubble. We had a collapse and was a bubble because we also had a deeply dysfunctional financial market

that drove that unhealthy housing market. We don't have that now. It's actually not terribly easy to get a loan. Underwriting standards are pretty tight. Credit is not particularly loose at the moment. It hasn't been now for a long time, 17 years. Credit has been fairly restricted. Underwriting standards have been fairly good.

The problem is that we have relatively high interest rates against like recent historical norms, and we have a supply issue. And both of those things combine to do two things that aren't supposed to happen at the same time. You're supposed to have a balance, a push-pull balance, a supply-demand balance. Typically, if supply is low and demand is high,

then that's going to push prices up on things, right? So that's pretty normal. But you typically will get some kind of a balancing effect. We don't have any of that. What we have is the worst of all worlds. We actually have a supply shortage and a buyer shortage right now. That's bad. That's maximally bad. So we have a problem where there's just less transactions taking place, less saleable transactions taking place than anytime in the last 30 years.

So like this is my business, my day job. And if I look at like the Chicago market, which is indicative of the national market, in terms of total volume of resale properties, it is the lowest it's been in 30 years. There's just not a lot of transaction volume taking place, but prices continue to go up. It's supposed to be that when transaction volume goes down,

prices go down. Prices are not going down. Prices continue to either stabilize or rise. So that's the worst of all worlds. And I don't think that there's a good way out of it. There's not a bubble that can pop because we don't have, we're not going to just suddenly get more supply anytime soon. What is so shocking is the age. And, you know, one of the things that is a travesty for this younger generation that exists

is at least throughout our young life and leading into our, you know, more mature adulthood, we were able to accumulate wealth in some way because we bought houses, those houses, we kept paying money. Instead of paying rent, we're paying money into those things. And those houses then created some modicum of wealth for you. You have to like in order to gain wealth, that's how you did it. It was like a generational thing. You would buy a house, add, add, add, add, add. If you wanted to sell an upgrade, you'd sell upgrade. Then you'd add, add, add, add,

add. And you'd eventually have a small nest egg based on your real estate. And you were able to do that and upgrade your house and buy a better house if you needed it or pay your house off and not have a payment. If you could do that sort of thing, that was like the dream, right? That was the dream. The problem is, is that younger people are not able to even get that ball rolling. They can't even start rolling that ball because their wealth that they have has to go towards living, right? Anything that they get, that's money I have to spend today. I have to spend it every week in order to live. I can't put anything away to save that

tiny nest egg, to get that house, to start the ball. You can't put anything away to save that tiny nest egg to get that house to start the ball. They can't do it. They just don't have that ability. And so you're seeing that age, it makes sense that that age would creep up on the on the buying of the homes because the people who were able to get the ball rolling are naturally going to be older than the people in the younger generation who cannot get anything moving because the wages are so low, the prices are too high, and the barrier to entry is too much money for them to start that work. Yeah. Like I'll get some of these numbers a little bit wrong, some off the top of my head, but

I'm not going to get them very far wrong because this is like the median home price right now in America is over $420,000. That's the median home price right now in America is over $420,000. That's the median home price. In order to qualify to buy a house at $400 and some $1000, your salary, your income for your family needs to be somewhere around 110, $114,000, depending on what your down payment is gonna be. But the median household income is somewhere around $70,000.

So that's so different. That gap is a sign of how unhealthy that market is against the income and the average earning potential. Such a distance too. The idea of a $420,000 average or median cost for a home is fucking insane. Like to give people some idea of how much that has changed. In early 2020, before the pandemic, it was like 320,000, 315,000, somewhere around there.

To go up 30 some percent in four or five years is fantastically unhealthy. Unbelievable. You should have a housing market that appreciates somewhere between two and five percent a year and that makes sense because that roughly keeps pace with wages and inflation. Yeah. So you want your home to appreciate, you want inflation to go up, you actually don't want zero inflation, and you want wages to go up. And those things, if they go up roughly in tune with each other, we've got a pretty healthy thing going. Everything kind of works out in payroll.

When something like housing, which everybody needs, it's a fucking basic human right, shoots up 33, 40%, depending on your market, it could be more. In a handful of years, your income didn't go up that high. So now huge amounts of people are just priced well the fuck out of homes, it's crazy. My parents, when, now my parents lost this home, but in my lifetime, my parents bought a house for $35,000.

In my lifetime. In my lifetime, because I was a very young boy when,000 in my lifetime. Because I was a very young boy when they bought their first house. They lost that house because of Reagan and they lost the job, they couldn't pay it, it was foreclosed on. But that house was $30,000 when my dad signed the mortgage. The first house that I bought was $134,900. And I was able to buy that house when I was 25 years old on just my income.

It was $134,900. My mortgage with taxes and insurance was somewhere around $1,000 a month. Taxes, insurance, the mortgage. And like that was with a 6.5% interest rate. So it's not that interest rates back in 2003 when I bought that house were two, three, four percent. They weren't.

The six and a half percent was a prevailing rate at the time. It's just that the price of housing was a third, literally a third. Twenty two years ago, stuff should not appreciate over the course of twenty two years. Things should not appreciate 300%. That's insane. Don't you think I feel terrible? Why do you think I'm drinking myself to death? Oh, we're finding all about it.

We sure are. We're finding about it. Stories from the Independent tapped out. Canada kicks American booze as US alcohol sales plunge 66% amid terrafore. There's something they don't talk about in this story, Cecil, that I thought was unimaginably sad and I think it's worth bringing up. This means that there are people out there and I need everybody to kind of gird themselves that are drinking Canadian whiskey right now.

Yeah, on purpose, yeah. Like, they could be having a nice nice this is the tragedy of these tariffs They could be having a nice bourbon. They could they could but they're drinking a Canadian whiskey They're drinking a Canadian whiskey a tragedy genuinely lesser whiskey. It's it's barely even palatable What what is what is so funny about this story is they sell, one of these companies is now selling a, Moosehead Breweries wound up selling a pack of 1,461 cans,

one beer for each day remaining in Trump's second dress. Yeah, that's amazing to me. When I read that, I laughed out loud. I thought like, there is no world where I can imagine I've had moose head and I'm like, I don't want 1400 of them. I'll tell you that much. Yeah, I would say though, if I didn't, if Trump was out of office every day that I drank a moose head.

Oh, are you kidding me? Put it in my veins. Come on, come on. I'll bathe in it. I'll put it in a smallose head. Oh, are you kidding me? Put it in my veins. Come on. Come on. I'll bathe in it. I'll put it in a small paper bag. Right? And I will drink it.

Dude, I'll do a moose head enema if it gets him out of office faster. The other thing I wanted to point out from this story Cecil is how sobering was it for you to say, oh my God, 1461 more days. I know, right? Each day is so long. So long. Every day is a new fresh hell. It's crazy.

But I gotta say though, you recognize, you see this, you know what's going to happen. You recognize it. And it dovetails with another story that we have about tariffs. There's a story in the New York Times. Here's the title. Trump's tariffs are the highest in the century, but after his threats, they seem like a relief. He's so bad at his job. He's so fucking bad at what he does.

And he's such a disaster that when he fucking walks in a room and flails his arms and knocks all the pictures off the wall and breaks all the fixtures and fucking spills every drink that the one that's still on the coaster is a blessing. Yeah, man. That's the blessing. That's like, wow, he didn't fucking just he didn't like the room on fire when he destroyed it. And that to me is saving the American people.

I saw this week somebody posted something like, you know, we've already raised a hundred billion dollars in tariffs because of President Trump's strength. And it's like, whose money was that? It's our money. My wife bought me a very nice gift for my, for our anniversary. Right. So we had, we, we, we normally don't get each other anything for anniversaries. It's something we had a, uh, I think it's Silver's the 25th recently,

so we bought each other nice gifts. We were like, let's buy each other something nice. So I bought her something, then she bought me something. Well, the thing that she wanted to buy me happens to be an imported thing. And you know, like when you're looking for reviews, you'll do like best, best machine under X under X dollars. Well, this machine was the best machine under X dollars on a couple of lists, but it's no

longer under X dollars because the tariff on it has increased it past that point. So it's no longer considered, even though every video out there from like two or three months ago talks about it being the best ex under two, under, under, under ex amount of money. You're like, that's because of tariffs. Nobody else paid that but us. We paid that money. That's a tax on me. I paid an extra tax to get a gift from my wife that I wouldn't have to pay before. Here's what I'm genuinely worried about with the tariff stuff.

I am worried because the thing is that what this amounts to is a regressive tax. This is a sales tax. It's 100% regressive. So it's a regressive tax. The right believes in regressive taxation. I actually do wonder, Cecil, if Trump won't make good on his promise to eliminate income taxes and replace it with the regressive tax of tariffs. I can see a world where we all just pay a bunch more money

for all the goods that we buy, right? You could actually write up a plan. I don't know if the numbers would work, but you could imagine a plan where you really do get rid of income taxes, right? And you do replace it with tariffs. But what that amounts to isn't China paid my income taxes. It's I paid my income taxes in a sales tax that is a hidden sales tax. It is the price of goods having gone up in cost over time. And if that happens, since I'm a regular guy, the majority of my income goes to goods and services, which are impacted by these tariffs.

Rich people spend less of their money. Less percentage. Less percentage of their money on goods and services, which means they retain the majority of their cash. I can see a world where that is the goal. percentage of their money on goods and services, which means they retain the majority of their cash. I can see a world where that is the goal. We have 1461 moose heads left before he, so he's got some time. And you bring up Canada, which is one of the reasons why I don't think it's going to work.

And it's because they will just stop trading with you. Right. They'll be like, well, we don't fucking care. We'll get another partner to buy all this stuff and we won't buy anything from you. So while we could feasibly maybe get that money back by buying other people's goods, they might, they might not care about selling it to us as much. We might not have as much and then they won't be buying our stuff because we're, because the tariff thing, if he's going to do that, he's got to take away the tariffs from other people, right? He's got to take that away.

So when we're selling to them, we've got to stop with everything that's happening because he's putting tariffs on their goods and they're putting a reverse tariff on ours. Right. on ours, right? So like the reason why Canada isn't buying our whiskey is because their country is saying, if you don't buy our whiskey, we're not going to fucking buy your whiskey. Right. Well, then you're shutting down your own government willfully. You're shutting down the own economic drivers of your government willfully and industries will die. People will get audit. Like we're seeing people not come to the United States for tourism. That's dropping. You're seeing our alcohol sales plummet. You're seeing all these things happening.

People don't even have the money in their pocket that they even did before. Yeah. Right? So you have an opportunity to really fuck everything up. So it's possible that they could, like you suggest, do this. And the dumbest people in the world would be like, he don't think about me. I don't even have to write up my squiggles at the end of the year to see how much I owe to government.

He doesn't have to do that. And all these idiots, these yokels will fall in line and they don't realize that he's picking their pocket, making them bear the tax burden for the wealthy and at the same time, ruin their income and keep them in lower entry level jobs for the rest of their lives. Dude, 100%, I think that this is a real possibility.

I think that this actually might be an end goal of these terrorists. I think if I wanted to give the biggest, most massive tax break in history to the wealthiest people in this country, the best thing I could do is to eliminate the sales, the income tax entirely for everybody. And he'll get rid of capital gains too.

He'll get rid of all of it. Inheritance, he'll get rid of all of it. And replace the whole thing with tariffs. Tariffs act as a sales tax. The sales tax is paid in bulk by regular people, not by the wealthy. And you've just created a massively regressive system that funnels more and more wealth to the top. That's awful.

I think it's possible. By the way, I would have voted for Obama for a third term if I could. This story also comes to New York Times. Targeting Obama, Trump's retribution campaign takes another term. After focusing his second term ire on other individuals and institutions, President Trump is again seeking prosecution of his most prominent rivals, this time with aides more inclined to carry out his wishes. That last part is really important.

Super important because before in other parts of in his previous administration, he had people who you would go to them and say, I want to do this. And they'd be like, well, you can't do that. Right. Like that's not, we don't do that. That's not something we do. There's other ways to fuck with people.

We're not just going to bring them in here and put them on charges. Now he's got people in there because there's no real qualified people that are working for him. Right. They'll just do whatever he says. And you have people that are absolutely sycophantic.

Look at Tulsi Gabbard. Oh yeah. That is an absolute abhorrent human being who literally is there to just be the lap dog of Trump and do literally whatever he says. She's a horrible, awful human being who is doing what she can now to dig stuff up on Obama to try to make it seem like the things that they did to, to make an FBI investigation about Trump possibly having connection to Russia while he was still in office is against the law.

And I will just be like, I can't wait to see this go to court because these idiot Supreme Court justices made it so that an official act isn't something you can be fucking prosecuted for. I thought the same thing. Like when he tweeted out the bullshit AI video showing Obama getting arrested in the White House, it's like you can't arrest the president. You can't arrest him after the fact either. We've already done this bad thing.

Like we've already done this terrible, awful thing. It's almost like he thinks that that just applies to him. And I will say that there's a part of me Cecil that does wonder because we have a judiciary That is so fucked up that if they will just carve it out if they'll say yeah Well, what we mean to say is yeah Or they'll figure out a way because they've tied themselves in knots legally before and now Recently, they don't even issue majority opinions when they make a decision So the last several decisions that they've made, they've not even written it up.

So they're not even giving anything in the write up that allows people to go back and understand the thought process to use that for precedent. So instead, they're just making the ruling. And the only opinion is the dissenting opinion. And that's super fucking intentional too. So I could see a world where like Obama literally gets targeted, gets arrested by this unfair, ridiculous, politically motivated persecution prosecution says, well, but I have fucking immunity because you get you have fucking immunity. And I could see it go to Supreme Court and then being like, nah, you're black.

Not you. I'll tell you what, man. You arrest Obama for some trumped up charge like this. It's on, dude. I don't know if you have a country after that. I don't know if you have a country after that. If we do, we have a kangaroo court. We have a fully banana republic. We have fully, it's a banana republic at that point.

And I don't know that it wouldn't be a civil war. Like a straight up, people shooting each other in the streets, straight up civil war. I don't know how you fix that if they do that. I don't know how you fix that if Tulsi Gabbard gets her way. She was grilled, she couldn't even answer questions on it. They were asking her questions. The press poll was asking her questions and saying,

this was already looked into and nobody did anything about it. Why are you bringing up now? And she could not answer the question. No, because there's no answer. Because there's no answer. There's no answer. Because she doesn't have an answer.

And she's probably not smart enough to think of one. Right. Well, and it's funny to not have an answer to that and to have not even prepared an answer for that, knowing that you're going to have to talk to the press and that having no consequences. That's the other thing that's important is like these things don't have any consequences to these officials, right? It's not like Tulsi Gabbard like was unable to answer the questions and that's a scandal. She's unable to answer the questions because nobody on that

side is expected to articulate a rational position. I just hope that there is, I know that you can't go after Trump, right? You can't go after Trump. I hope Trump goes after Trump eventually. And that's what I'm hoping. Trump's body goes after Trump eventually. Well, those swollen ankles might get him. That's what I'm hoping. But, so Trump's off the menu, right?

There's nothing you could do to him. But I hope every single person who helped facilitate this particular destruction of our government is held to account. I really do hope that. I hope every single person who helped facilitate this particular destruction of our government is held to account. I really do hope that. And when I look back at what the Democrats did when they took office from Trump, they should have had a stronger hand. They went out of their way to find a wishy washy attorney general in Merrick Garland.

I thought Merrick Garland was going to be a bulldog because of what they did to him. I was like, they fucked you of what they did to him. I was like, they fucked you over son, go get him. And instead he was like, well, I might go after him if I got, we'll see, I don't know. Hmm, hmm, hmm, I don't know, hmm. A little fight, it's just like you wanna just grab him and just choke him and then you have, they go,

they're like, well, we wanna be really, really careful on who we pick for a special counsel. Don't do that anymore. Don't do it anymore. Go find the meanest motherfucker you can. Find the meanest, fastest moving motherfucker you can. I know why they did it. They didn't want anything to come back.

Well, you don't have anything. Guess what? You don't have anything. What you have now is a guy who's rolling, using a steamroller in slow motion. It's like the Zamboni scene from fucking Austin Powers. We're watching it come at us and there's nothing we can do. We're just like, ah, and then the camera cuts it. Ah, we're doing it again. It's the same thing over and over.

Nothing worked before. You had the most careful guys in history, agonizing over which fucking line, which wire to cut for four straight fucking years. Fuck it. Get the fucking toughest, most shit-talking-est fucking lawyer you can find who is absolutely behind your cause and be like, fuck them in the face for four straight years. I will not stop. I will tear them apart, tear down every single person who went after it, who, who came in this administration and destroyed the rule of law.

Use those people, their fucking corpses as foundation to make a new one. Make every single one of their jail cells be the foundation of the new one. It's unbelievable that we've let it fall this far. It is. But like, I think you're exactly right. I think what happened was the Biden administration came in and said, that was a weird aberration that will never happen again. And we are going to reestablish new norms. We're going to get back to the norms. We're going to do government the right way. We're going to show people that like good people should do things ethically and through this process and respect the norms of

government. Now we've got to admit all that's gone, all that's shattered. None of that is the case anymore. Case law has actually established now that norms don't matter, that norms aren't how we make this. So yeah, fuck them, dude. It's better call Saul time. Exactly. It's every day we call Saul. Get the worst person you can. Just find the worst person you can. Yep. Somebody who's got like a bad storefront and is like running drugs in the fucking alley. I want a fucking lawyer with an eye patch. That's what I want. I want a fucking, I just want him to block in like Solid Snake and just fucking ruin every, just ruin everybody.

If it's not a seersucker suit, I'm not interested. I am fucking a hundred percent down with just watching every single one of these people who have destroyed the rule of law be held to account for the bad things they've done. Yeah, man. Fuck them. And the thing is, is like, I know that there was this back and forth, this sort of, I'm not sure we should do this because they think that if we do this, it's retributive. They already think that.

Yeah. So who fucking cares? They already think that and no amount of hemming and hawing and pussyfooting around is going to stop them from thinking that. Because all the things that you did in the past with Merrick Garland and Jack Smith to try to make sure you found the exact right person to go as slow as, like, I'm going to, what I'm going to gonna do is I'm gonna stand still and you Back the legal case into me. That's how slow they it's not anal. No, it's not Don't worry, we will use so much loot and they're like none of it

It didn't matter at all. It didn't matter one bit no matter how much convincing They were 100% never gonna be on board. I don't care how careful you were. So just don't do it. Just don't do it. Just don't do it. Why fucking try to placate? They cannot be placated.

So don't try. And they're not coming back. They're not coming back. This is like from this article, the Trump administration has said, let's stick the IRS on these guys. And they've done it. And that's not like a thing that like we're thinking about.

They have done it. They are trying to ruin these people using the arms of government that they know can harass and hurt and even those like they've been like in these really weird invasive audits. They've not found anything. It's like it all feels like the fucking Hunter Biden laptop. It's like you've had it. Yeah. If there was something on it, there would be a thing. They're just they're they're insistent that there's a story here. There's no story here.

They're insistent that there's corruption, but they never show you one corruption. They never, like, I'll believe there's a corruption when you pull it out of the hat and it's not a practice corruption. They never show you any of it. There's never an evidence. There's always an assertion.

Oh, well then, all right, sir. Give my best to Luigi. Ow. It starts from Politico. GOP mega bills final score, 3.4 trillion in red ink and 10 million people kicked off health insurance according to the CBO. The CBO is a nonpartisan group that basically says, here's what shit costs. We knew it was going to happen. Yep.

Knew it was going to happen. This is the intention. You knew it was going to happen. They said ahead of time what they were gonna do then they did it and we're like, I can't believe that He's Pikachu face now Nope, sorry, we're not We knew what was gonna happen. They've been talking about this for a long time You knew and and and it's it's never about the principles that they ran on, right? The principles of government is wasteful. Well, if government was so wasteful,

why did you cut small, tiny little portions and then give people a gigantic tax cut and still keep most of the government? Why do that? Why do that is because you wanted to give a giant tax cuts, that's what you wanted to do. And you never really cared about the other stuff. The other stuff was literally purely ceremonial the stuff that they cut from from USAID is

Useless money it's small amount of money in comparison to what you could be cutting but they won't do that What they're gonna do is just mark it up and say guess what? We're just gonna take in less than taxes That's just how it's gonna work because we want rich people to have more and more and more money What I want to see is I want to see, let's go back to our old tax rates, be like, you know what, we're going to, we're going to take back not just, you know, the Bush tax cuts and the Trump tax cuts and the, and the Bush, the first tax cuts, et cetera, et cetera. We're going to take back the Reagan tax cuts. Sure. Yeah. We're going back to 70% over X amount of dollars. It's 70%.

You want to make money in this country, that's how you're going to have to do it. And there's all this crying, oh, they're going to, no, they're not, they're not going to do anything. They're going to fucking pay them money. That's what they're going to do. They're going to be, they're going to be very wealthy before they actually pay that money, before they pay that money. And this is an income tax, right?

These people know how to get around this. It's an income tax. These wealthy, wealthy, wealthy people, most of the time will get around it. But most people will get, you know, at a certain point, there's going to be a lot of money that you're essentially saying they get to keep when they we we let them use our government as a fucking Kleenex after they jerked off. Right? Yeah, that's it. They get to use their government constantly for whatever they want, however they want, and they pay the least amount percentage-wise

of their money. Like we pay more money of our real money than they pay. Yeah, and like the offset, so they're basically like, yeah, we're gonna extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which are mostly a tax cut that benefits the wealthy and corporations. It's not for you and me. They extend the 2017 tax cuts essentially indefinitely now.

And then they do a bunch of stuff that is social engineering, right? The USAID is social engineering. Like there's no financial juice there. It's just there to say, we took something away the liberals liked. We hurt somebody because we don't believe in empathy as a driver for our social experiment called government.

Like that's what all that stuff is for. That stuff is there to hurt people and make them scream and cry. And then the, you know, we're gonna pay for it by like hurting the most vulnerable people because what are they gonna fucking do about it, right? And like cutting Medicare and Medicaid, I can't tell you how many stories I've seen

where people don't understand that like, it's like Obamacare and ACA, right? They think that like, oh, I don't get Medicare. I am on like, who's your best or whatever. Like every state has their own name for it. They don't under, there's so many people don't understand that. So they are like, well, at least they're not touching, you know, the fucking Kentucky cares.

Right. And it's like, that's what that is. Yeah. You're getting kicked off that. That's the thing that you're getting this 10 million people kicked off could be much higher. It is going to be a lot of leopards facing a lot man on a lot of faces and I hope people remember this thing. That's what I hope. You don't you don't remember the things that don't really affect you right. We've got to have the

dumbest population in America touch the stove with their whole fucking thing. That's true. Right? You can't just tap it and then you can't just be like, I tapped it, but then it got fixed or whatever. And so now I forgot the tap or something else like the Epstein files. Something happened with them. So I forgot the tap.

It's got to be a full, I laid, I fucking tripped, and I fell on the stove, and then I had to write myself using pressure. That's what it's gotta feel like. It's gotta feel like I really fucking burned this shit out of myself, and they've gotta remember it. And that's the real key. And I hope that they've dug enough that they've they've they've dug

that this knife deep enough in our skin that they do feel. Yeah. Well, it's a good metaphor because there needs to be scars. Yeah, there needs to be scars. We've learned I think that people are willing to endure a lot of pain with a short memory and it's it's it's terrible. It's but it's true. Yeah, the scar is necessary. I think you're exactly right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right, that's gonna wrap it up for this week.

We're gonna have a patron show on Thursday for ya but we'll be back Monday with a full show. We're gonna leave you like we always do with the Skeptic Scream. Credulity is not a virtue. It's fortune cookie cutter mommy issue hit no Babylon bullshit. the skeptic screen. Water downward spiral brain dead pan sales pitch Late night info docutainment Leo Pisces cancer cures Detox reflex foot massage

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