College Football Live - Baby, what if?

Episode Date: August 1, 2024

Host Victoria Arlen is joined by Jordan Reid, Harry Lyles Jr, Bill Connelly, and Pete Thamel. The crew discusses college football's top contenders, and what each team needs in order to win it all. Plus, is the defending champion being overlooked? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Burrow is launching down. Phil. S.U. sits on the throne of college football. Sabin for the seventh national championship. Intercepted. And the drought is over. Georgia on the mountaintop.

Mill Michigan, the champions of college football, 2023. Took on all comers and the last one standard. The new 12th team college football playoff will be made up of the five highest-string conference champions, plus the next seventh highest ranked teams. Now, the four highest ranked conference champions will be seated one through four

and receive first round buys. While the eight teams seated five through 12 will play in the first round, with the team seated five through eight hosting home games. From there, the playoff will play out as dictated by the bracket with no receding between rounds

until a national champion is crowned on January 20th on ESPN. Welcome to College Football Live. I'm Victoria Arlen, alongside Harry Lylez, Jr., Jordan Reed, and Bill Connolly, joining us in just a bit. Happy August, everyone. We are officially in the month in which college football is officially back, and so with that, we are talking all things CFP today with the ifs and hows. But first, let's take a look at some early odds. Last week, Ohio State's odds moved and are now co-favorits with Georgia to win the national championship, according to ESPN bet.

It's the first time since odds opened in January that the Bulldogs, are not outright title favorites. Big Ten and SEC newcomers, Oregon and Texas, along with Alabama, round out the top five. We heard earlier today from head coach Ryan Day. Every year there's urgency. I mean, you don't think it's important. Try losing a game at Ohio State.

I say it all the time. So it's no different that way, but certainly there's a lot of guys on a team that want to be able to finish the season with some hardware. And I told the team to be the hardest playing team in the country. Like that should be our identity, the hardest playing team. So when someone watches the Buckeye,

this year they should see that. We got to force it. We got to make sure that we're, you know, pounding the ball in practice and, you know, sustaining throughout the entire practice and just holding guys accountable. And did we do that throughout the entire season at the end of the season the last couple years? No. And so we got to do that this year. We've got to make sure that we're sustaining that throughout the season and then playing our best football and wearing teams down in the fourth quarter at the end of the year. Bill Connolly joining us now. Now, Bill has an article up right now on ESPN Plus, breaking down the ips of 16 teams that needed to make them national champions. Now, we're not going to go through all 16. We don't have enough time for that,

but we'll give you a peek of some of the teams he's talking about, starting with the betting co-favorite Ohio State. So Bill, OSU is a national title contender if. I mean, the biggest thing they've got that they need to prove is that Will Howard is actually an upgraded quarterback. We kind of had a run and joke all of last year, it felt like, where if we said, you know, if they just had a top 20 quarterback, you know, this is, this is, they have everything else they need. Well, now they got basically the 20th best quarterback in the country, according to total QBR, or very close to it. And so now he just has to prove his worth. Kyle McCord's stats were good last year, despite it being so maligned.

Will Howard has to improve it. He has to come through against Michigan and some of the other big games. Now, you just heard Bill mention that if Will Howard is an upgrade, the Buckeyes have a chance to be title contenders. Now, in your opinion, Jordan, how crucial is the QB position for Ohio State's title chances? Well, it's very crucial just because look at the surrounding talent that they do have coming back, not only on offense, but also defense as well. This is a team that hit the transport portal very hard.

And just looking at the offensive side of the ball, they have a two-headed monster in the backfield. And Trayvionne Henderson, who surprisingly returned last season after battling some injuries. And then they bring over Quinn Sean Juckins from Ole Miss, who was an all-SCC running back a season ago. They lose Marvin Harrison, Jr., but you get a Mecca-A-A-Booka back. And then they get a very talented five-star freshman and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith incoming. So there's a lot of excitement about Ohio State, but it all centers around Will Howard being more consistent in the passing game than what we saw last year with Kyle McCord. Absolutely, Jordan. I know there's some questions there at wide receiver, but still obviously a lot of potential.

It's still Ohio State. But I feel pretty confident in Will Howard's ability to eventually get this thing to where the Buckeyes need it to be. I mean, we're talking about a guy who threw for 2,700 yards last year, had 24 touchdown. He'd like to see him get rid of some of those. But he's going to have time to figure this thing out. You mentioned those guys in the backfield, Quin Sean Judkins, Trayvionn-Henderson. Those are two guys that defenses are going to have to account for on every single

play. And then this defense, as you also mentioned, took a huge step up last year. We remember how much they struggled in 22, made strides in 23, and they're bringing back 10 to 14 guys with at least 200 or more snaps this year. So Will Howard, even if he's not great early, he has time to figure this thing out because this Ohio State team is so talented. Now OSU arguably has the second best roster right behind Georgia. Even they have questions at quarterback, but their new QB, Will Howard, as we've talked about,

he's currently tied for the sixth best Heisman odds per ESPN bet. Now, let's shift gears over to Georgia, who has made three playoff appearances all under head coach Kirby Smart. Now, the Bulldogs reached the title game in all three appearances, bringing home back-to-back titles in 2021 and 2022. They enter this season as the co-b betting favorite at ESPN bet to win a third. championship in the last four seasons. Bill, back to you. UGA is a national title contender in. I mean, the biggest thing, and it's kind of what, you know, is facing Ohio State, too. They have a bunch of potential weapons and running back and wide receiver. They need guys to

step up. You know, all the talent in the world, Dylan Bell, Trevor Ateen from Florida. But you lose Brock Bowers. You lose Ladd-McConkie. They lost so many of last year's key contributors. We think guys will step up, but they have to. And until, until they do. We don't know for sure that it'll happen. Now, Harry, of those two ifs, which one concerns you the most? Ooh, those road warriors, that schedule is tough. And look, I'm as big of a believer in Georgia as anybody that I mentioned it yesterday, they've only lost two games the last three years. But when you look at this schedule, you have a neutral site game opening up at Clemson,

which they know, they'll probably be all right there. But you've got that road game at Alabama, at Texas against Florida at Ole Miss and luckily they get Tennessee at home but a lot of their toughest tests this year are going to be on the road and again as great as I think that this Georgia team has been and will be this year

having a schedule that tough is daunting for any team so if they come through this thing mostly unscathed I don't know that we should be worrying about anybody really testing them in a playoff on a neutral site because that is a heck of a tough schedule. Yeah luckily for them Harry that first game is in Atlanta

and I'm sure they're going to outnumber the Clemson fans in that one being that it is in state. But what does this offense look like in year two with Carson Beck at the helm? They have a lot of production that went out the door. Bill touched on it a little bit earlier with Brock Bowers now going to the NFL Lab McConkey. And also Marcus Rosamy Jack St. It was also a productive player for them. So what does this offense look like now in year two under offensive coordinator Mike Bobo? Now, a big thing they do have going for them is quarterback Carson Beck, who led the SEC in passing yards last year

and has the second best odds for the Hidesman will be returning this season. Let's shift gears over to Georgia coach Kirby Smart announced today that wide receiver Rodarius Robra Thomas, who was arrested last week on multiple family violence charges, has been dismissed from the team. Smart said, quote, he can no longer be part of the football team. He understands that. We wish him the best moving forward, end quote.

Thomas was expected to be an integral part of Georgia's passing game this season. A former Michigan State University head football coach Mel Tucker is suing the university and school leaders, alleging that they wrongfully fired him last year after he was accused of sexual harassment. The suit, which seeks unspecified damages, alleges that Michigan state officials violated his rights to due process. He was in the third year of a 10-year deal with about $80 million left when he was fired. Let's bring in college football insider Pete Thammel joining us now. Pete, what more can you tell us about this story? Ultimately, Victoria, Mel Tucker's case against Michigan State is going to be rooted in fairness and process. I spoke to Rita Glavin, Tucker's attorney today.

She maintains that Tucker denies that he sexually harassed Brenda Tracy. When I spoke to some outside lawyers about the nature of this case today, they pointed to the fact that similar cases in terms of coaches getting fired for cause and then trying to claim some of that money back have either been settled or gone to arbitration. So I think the first thing to watch here, Victoria, it'll be interesting to see if Michigan State wants to go through a lengthy and costly litigation here. It's obviously a university that's been besieged by bad headlines over the last decade. But also, did they want to pay out, Tucker, considering the salacious nature of what was alleged? It's going to be a very interesting case that's going to be followed closely around college athletics. We'll be following it very closely.

Thank you, Pete, for your insight. We're going to take a quick break now. coming up next with the season only weeks away. How far can Texas go? Bill Connolly is back with us to answer the biggest ifs for the long horns. The NFL preseason kicks off tonight with the annual pro football Hall of Fame game Texans and Bears 8 Eastern on ESPN ABC and ESPN de Portes. Our coverage begins with a special edition of Monday night countdown at seven. Oregon and Texas will each embark on their first seasons and new conferences. Each has been ranked within the top 25 of the playoff rankings. However, each program has bookend playoff appearances. Oregon in 2014 in Texas last season. And with the expanded playoff, each program has a 20% chance to

reach the title game according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. All right, Bill, we're back. Oregon is a national title contender. If of six of last year's defensive lineman is back. Jordan Birch is really good, but they have a lot of guys to replace on the defensive line. And so, you know, transfers, youngsters, et cetera. The bar is really high here for them to clear. And, you know, the offense was so good, you worry about at least maybe a little bit of a regression. The defense has to get even better starts with the defensive line. And there's a lot of new pieces right there.

Now, in Jordan, a lot of Oregon success this season hinges on the QB position as well. How do you see Dylan Gabriel fitting with what this offense does? Well, I think he's going to be a great fit. And if you look at the similarities between him and Bo Nix, I think they are very similar players. There are two players that don't really have significantly strong arms, but they're very precise, they're very accurate, and they thrive on getting the ball out on time. How about these stats? Last year, Bo Nix is QBR on throws with 10 or less air yards, 86.9, 23 touchdowns to zero

interceptions. Dylan Gabriel, QBR of 82.4, which was seventh in the country, 20 touchdowns to only one interception. So when I'm looking at what Will Stein wants to do on offense, Dylan Gabriel is the perfect fit for what they want to do, which is getting the ball out quickly to his playmakers on the perimeter. And he has two really good ones in Evan Stewart and Tess Johnson, as well as tight-in Terrence Ferguson.

Yeah, Jordan, I couldn't agree with you more on the fit. And I think Bill called it well-fitting like a glove. Like, it truly feels like if there was going to be a guy that this Oregon program had to follow up Bo, Nick Swift, Dylan Gabriel is the perfect one. He's been great since his freshman season at UCF. I think I mentioned earlier this week on the show. one of the toughest players that I have seen in person play college football over the last four years.

He is a guy that knows how to play in big games. He won the Red River rivalry last year when he was with Oklahoma. And he was a little bit more of a threat in the ground game, at least in terms of scoring. He had 12 rushing touchdowns last year. So he's going to be able to do everything that this team needs of him. The thing that I'm also curious about that Bill had brought up was that defensive line because they are playing in the Big 10 now. And those lines, as we know, are no joke in that conference. So it'll be interesting to see how that one develops.

The secretary is going to have a lot to a pretty high standard to meet as well. Lots of turnover front and back of the defense. So I do think, you know, as likely as it is that Dylan Gabriel and the offense continue to step up, defense has got a lot of new pieces here and they can't backslide at all. Not at all, especially with Oregon having to manage the ninth hardest schedule in college football based on its opponents combined win total last season. So Del Gabriel is definitely going to have to fit like a glove. Now that was Oregon, and now we're on to Texas.

So, Bill, Texas is a national contender if. I'm a broken record here. Defensive line has a really, really high bar to clear. You know, they had Ted Fondre sweat last year. They lost two of, I think, their top four. Steve Sarkeesian brought in three transfers plus an ace pass rusher and Trey Moore. Lots of new pieces there. And I think the talent is probably where it needs to be.

But they were so good up front, sweat especially. And, you know, SEC, all the all the depth that just, that is required to compete there and beat Georgia and whatnot, defensive line's going to have to play it really, really well. I like what you said, new beep is as good as the old beef up front. Now, Harry, Texas, although a college football semi-finalist last season, is also entering its first season in the SEC. What kind of additional challenges does that add to their title hopes?

Now, the thing that I'm most interested to see, and I don't know that this will be a particular issue for them because I do think they are that talented, but them in Oklahoma were always the big brother in the Big 12 conference. The SEC is not like that. There's a lot of big brothers in the SEC, and so seeing how Texas adjusts that way will be interesting. I don't know that it's going to be a huge issue for them in this first year

because their schedule. We talk about Georgia's being tough. Texas is on the other end of that spectrum. It is not a very tough schedule, as you'll see here, Colorado State. The at Michigan game, that's a tough one, UTSA is not a slouch. But a lot of their tough tests against Georgia, against Florida, against Kentucky are all at home, whereas they play Vanderbilt in Arkansas on the road. Obviously, we're all looking forward to that November 30th game against Texas A&M.

And I think the thing that you're really going to see here with this Texas team, and you're going to see with Oklahoma as well, is you're going to see a lot of these in conference games, a lot of these SEC teams trying to give them that welcome to the SEC game and those welcome to the SEC moments. So I think you're going to see a lot of that play out. But luckily for the Longhorns, their schedule isn't as tough as it possibly could be. So I think it'll be something that will be different for them, but I don't know that it'll affect them enough to really take them out of national title contention by any means.

Yeah, Harry, you make a lot of great points. But what makes me feel hope or gives me hope for Texas transitioning over to the SEC is that they are built through the trenches. And one player I will love to highlight is Kelvin Banks Jr. who's an offensive tackle for Texas, who arguably is the best offensive tackle in the country. But they have a lot of talent along the offensive line. They do have a lot of production to replace along the defensive front,

they did hit the transfer portal hard, and I expect someone to emerge out of that group, but through the trenches, I think Texas has a lot of talent. Now, offensively, they have a lot to replace on the perimeter. They did lose their top four weapons, Xavier Worthy, Adonai, Mitchell, Jatavian, Sanders, and then also Jonathan Brooks, who steps up in all those guys' absence for Quinn Ewers? Yeah, I think one thing to keep in mind, especially with the SEC transition, you know, line depth is going to matter a lot, but overall, you know, A&M one big in its first year back in 2012, Missouri won big in its second year.

If you're good, you're good. And it really seems like Texas is top five good heading into this year. And another thing, too, that's working in their favor. They have the third easiest schedule in the SEC, as well as the fourth best odds to win the Natty. All right, we're going to keep things moving and take a quick break. Our back-to-back Natty's possible for Michigan after the departure of Harbaugh, our crew takes a look at Michigan and other contenders' chances for a national championship right after the break.

Welcome back to college football live. The Michigan Wolverines became the fourth team in modern history to achieve a 15-0 record capturing the program's first national title since 1997. Now, Sharon Moore, who was previously Michigan's offensive coordinator, replaced his head coach Jim Harbaugh, who took the head coaching job in the NFL with the LA Chargers. Here's what Coach Moore had to say about replacing Harbaugh. I can't be Jim Harbaugh, and I never will be. So for me, I just, I go as I go. I'm not going to change how I am. When I get excited, I'm going to get excited.

when I want to yell smash, I'm going to yell smash. When I want us to play violent, I'm going to let our players know. And that's what I'm going to do. But when I love them, I love them. And when I feel like they need a hug, I'm going to give them a hug. Like, I'm just going to be me. And I can't change that. I'm not going to change that.

I mean, we all could use a hug, you know. Now, Bill, Michigan is a national contender, contender, again, if. If they can score, this is a brand new offense from top to bottom. J.J. McCarthy's gone. Blake Corum's gone. top two receivers, top six offensive linemen. There's some experience there. And, you know, Colston, Loveland, the tight end is awesome.

Donovan Edwards has been awesome. Didn't have a great 2023, but we know he's got a pretty high ceiling. But new offensive coordinator, new offensive line coach. This is just a brand new offense from top to bottom. And you figure there might be at least a few growing pains along the way as they figure out how to score points. A lot of new and a lot of ifs from Michigan to repeat his champion. So Harry, what should be realistic expectations for Michigan this year? Honestly, I think they could get eight to nine wins.

Looking at the schedule, I think that determines a lot. The big if on there that I liked was that 2022 Donovan Edwards. That's one of the reasons I thought that they would contend for the national championship last year. And obviously they did it. And then he ended up not being 22 Donovan Edwards. But when you look at their schedule and what they've got on here, they've got Texas at home, USC off a buy, Oregon at home, and go to Columbus versus Ohio State. Now, the reason I put them in that eight to nine range is because those four games in particular are tough. The ones that I think that if you're Michigan and you look at that you think you can win are USC and Ohio State because you always give yourself a chance against your rival.

And so if you get two of those four, that gives you a 10 win season. And then all of a sudden we're talking about you being in the playoff again. So I think eight to nine is realistic for them. 10 would be an incredible season for Michigan this year. Yeah, Harry, it all rides on the defense, in my opinion. And they still have a lot of talented players on this defense. The interior of it, I think, is the best by far, led by Mason Graham as well as Kenneth Grant. And then you still have Will Johnson at corner on the back end, too.

So the identity of this team stays the same, even though they have a new defensive coordinator in Wink Martindale, who I think is going to be more of an attacking type of defensive coordinator that plays a lot of man coverage. But I think what we see from them defensively is what is going to continue to carry this team. All right. Now, Bill, before we let you go, we have one more team we're going to squeeze in, Ole Miss. They're a national contender title if. If the new additions on both lines do what they're supposed to do, that's been the biggest area of weakness for Ole Miss when compared to Georgia, when compared to Alabama. They've obviously won a lot of games recently, but they haven't been able to compete at that level.

And, you know, he brings in Walter Nolan on defense, former number one recruit, brings in a couple starters from Washington's offensive line, Joe Moore Award winning offensive line. If they've got the beef, so to speak, that I do think they're in a really good place. We know they're going to be able to throw the ball. We know they're going to score, but they have to be able to compete in the trenches. Yeah, there wasn't a team that hit the transfer portal harder than Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. Walter Nolan was one name that was already mentioned. But Juice Wells at wide receiver on offense, I think that's another player that they're expecting big things out of this year. So it's an all-in season in Oxford, and I'm looking forward to seeing how they perform this upcoming season.

They did crush it with a transfer portal. Now, we do have to let Bill go. And our very own Greg McQuarrie also thinks that the rebels are a dark horse. to win their first national title since 1962. Bill, thank you so much for hanging with us. But let's play a little guess, too. Is it Dylan Raola or Patrick Mahomes, Harry? I'm going to go Dylan Rayola, though.

I got to admit that's a tough one. It's a tough one. What about you, Jordan? I thought Halloween wasn't for another two months. I thought that was Patrick Mahomes and it is Dylan Rayola. I guess we know why Matt Ruhl was so confident in saying four teams are going to get in the big, 10 of Raola is anything like what we saw of Patrick Malhoms at Texas Tech, I think he's

going to be very confident that prediction that he made a couple of weeks ago. I mean, how would we, how would we rate the vibe for that? Harry. They're definitely high, right? Yeah, I think, I think they're very high. You know, sometimes when you try to look like somebody, I shave my head to try to look like Michael Jordan. I look more like pit bull.

So sometimes it works out for you and sometimes it doesn't, right? I put a power ponytail in, you know, to feel a little bit like a unicorn. All right. Thank you so much for watching college football live for Harry, Jordan, Bill, and Pete. I'm Victoria. We will see you very soon.